Raphael Stevens

It’s set to be a record year for electric vehicle sales, but demand is expected to decline once federal incentives to buy EVs are discontinued after Tuesday.
Many automakers have relied on the incentives to boost consumer demand for EVs, which they’ve spent billions of dollars developing but which remain largely unprofitable.
Federal incentives of up to $7,500 have been in place since 2008, in varying forms, in an effort to make EVs more appealing for consumers.

A view of Cadillac Escalade IQ Sport 2 at Electrify Expo San Francisco, the largest electric vehicles (EV) event in North America at Alameda Point in Alameda, California, United States on Aug. 23, 2025.
Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu | Getty Images

DETROIT — Automakers and investors are about to find out what the “natural demand” is for new all-electric vehicles in the U.S., starting this week.
Amid what’s set to be a record year for EV sales, including a record for units sold in the third quarter, demand for EVs is expected to decline. That’s because federal incentives of up to $7,500 to purchase a plug-in vehicle are getting discontinued after Tuesday.

Many automakers have relied on the incentives to boost consumer demand for EVs, which they’ve spent billions of dollars developing even as the vehicles remain largely unprofitable.
Industry analysts and executives have said they believe EV sales can continue to grow in the future, but that there will soon be a boom-and-bust situation regarding demand for electric vehicles before there’s a new normal.
“We’re going to see some noise in October and November, and I expect that EV demand is going to drop off pretty precipitously,” General Motors CFO Paul Jacobson said during an investor event earlier this month. “We need to let it settle and understand where is that natural demand going and how do we meet that natural demand and ultimately try to lead customers to electric vehicles. That’s going to take a little bit of time.”
Jacobson’s remarks echo those of other industry leaders such as Hyundai Motor CEO José Muñoz and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

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“We are adjusting to the new situation and … we expect the mix of batteries to probably [not] grow as much as we already thought,” Muñoz told reporters earlier this month. “I think, in the short term, it’s going to go down, but in the mid-, long-term, we expect it to continue to grow.”

Musk, when discussing the company’s second-quarter results in July, said the EV maker could see “a few rough quarters” with the end of federal incentives and as Tesla’s automation plans are in their infancy.
But that might not happen immediately. Ahead of the federal EV program ending, many automakers encouraged consumers to purchase or lease new vehicles. That has included U.S. EV leader Tesla having a countdown on its website to the end of the federal incentives, which the company has historically used to promote lower vehicle prices on its site.
The federal incentives for consumers to purchase electrified vehicles have been in place since 2008, in varying forms. They were first introduced under Republican President George W. Bush, and were expanded under former President Barack Obama, a Democrat.
The incentives are coming to an end as part of the Trump administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which stripped the old enticement but included some perks for buying a U.S.-assembled vehicle, regardless of it being an EV.
“Policy really matters, and pulling away all these levers will slow the growth relative to what the path was before,” Elaine Buckberg, a senior fellow at Harvard University and former GM chief economist, said Wednesday during the Move America conference in Detroit.

EV roller coaster

Once the bill was passed, sales of EVs quickly gained traction, especially as some automakers added even more discounts to move out older models.
Cox Automotive forecasts sales of EVs hit 410,000 during the third quarter, up 21% from a year earlier. That would easily be the highest amount of EVs ever sold in a quarter in the U.S., as well as a record 10% market share.
“The federal tax credit was a key catalyst for EV adoption, and its expiration marks a pivotal moment. This shift will test whether the electric vehicle market is mature enough to thrive on its own fundamentals or still needs support to expand further,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox Automotive director of industry insights.

U.S. President Donald Trump, joined by Republican lawmakers, signs the One, Big Beautiful Bill Act into law during an Independence Day military family picnic on the South Lawn of the White House on July 04, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Samuel Corum | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Cox expects many buyers pulled ahead plans to purchase an EV before the federal incentives sunset. That was the case for buyer Paarth Sharma of New Jersey.
“I’ve been in the market for two to six weeks,” Sharma, who leased a Kia Niro EV, told CNBC. “It just accelerated because of the upcoming Sept. 30 order by Donald Trump and the EV rebates going away.”
The sales increase corresponded with a notable uptick in automaker incentives for EVs, as more buyers who qualified for offers rushed out to buy vehicles. Cox Automotive reports average incentive spend for EVs was more than $9,000 – more than double the industry average.
“The quarter delivered record EV sales and market share, but the pace will ease in Q4 and beyond as the impact of the IRA tax incentive begins to fade,” Valdez Streaty said.

What’s next?

While automakers have said they will continue to offer EVs, many companies are already taking steps to prepare for the expected impacts to sales, including laying off workers, cutting production of EVs or eliminating vehicles entirely.
Honda Motor on Wednesday, citing market conditions, confirmed plans to end U.S. production of its Acura ZDX electric crossover that was being produced by GM in Tennessee.
Separate from the Acura EV, GM has made several changes to its production plans for EVs that have included implementing downtime at plants, cutting upcoming production shifts and slowing its rollout of several models.
Others such as Volkswagen, Porsche and Rivian Automotive have announced changes to their EV plans or reductions in workforces related to EVs.
“EVs are not going away … but it’s not going to be a linear increase that we’ve seen over the last couple years, like we’re in for a short-term dip,” said Steve Horaney, senior vice president of the Mema Original Equipment Suppliers, said Wednesday during the Move America event.

2026 Nissan Leaf EV

But some plans are already too far along to go back on. New models are coming soon, such as a redesigned Nissan Leaf – arguably the first mainstream EV that was offered in the U.S. back when it was launched in 2010.
Nissan officials at an event touting the new model said the end of the credits timing with the fall release of the new Leaf is “tough,” but even without the tax credit, the price of the vehicle — starting at around $30,000 — should attract buyers.
Those kinds of lower-priced vehicles are expected to be even more important for EV customers and companies after the elimination of the tax credits, according to Valdez Streaty.
“The arrival of truly affordable models is so critical,” she said, citing upcoming EVs from the likes of GM and Ford Motor. “[They] could reshape the market.” More

“Gabby’s Dollhouse” is the latest kid’s TV show to head to the box office, with “Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” hitting theaters this weekend.
Children’s programming has become an increasingly important piece of the media landscape in recent years.
Going to theaters is allowing the Universal and DreamWorks Animation property to extend its reach globally and expand its already extensive retail and experiences ecosystem that includes toys, books, merchandise and live events.

Laila Lockhart Kraner stars as Gabby in Universal and Dreamworks Animations’ “Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie.”
Universal | Dreamworks Animation

A young girl named Gabby, alongside her menagerie of animated cat friends, is making the leap from streaming to the big screen.
Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s “Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” is the latest kid’s TV show to head to the box office, following in the footsteps of Paramount’s Paw Patrol and SpongeBob SquarePants franchises.

“We felt like the franchise had gotten to the point where there was enough fandom to justify a theatrical event, and we wanted to expand the world,” Margie Cohn, president of DreamWorks Animation, told CNBC.
Children’s programming has become an increasingly important piece of the media landscape in recent years. As linear TV has given way to streaming, studios are looking for ways to drive and sustain subscriber growth. For “Gabby’s Dollhouse,” establishing a theatrical presence increases awareness of the brand, stirs up fresh excitement from existing fans and spurs new opportunities for products in the retail market.
“Gabby’s Dollhouse,” created by “Blue’s Clues” veterans Traci Paige Johnson and Jennifer Twomey, launched on Netflix in 2021. It’s already run for 11 seasons, and a 12th is on due out in November. Each season has six to 10 episodes, about 25 minutes each.
It’s been the most-viewed streaming original series for kids this year, according to Nielsen.
Each episode begins with a live-action Gabby, played by Laila Lockhart Kraner, as she unboxes a miniature package that sparks an adventure in her magical dollhouse. She dons her cat-ear headband, shrinks down to become an animated character and joins her cat friends, called Gabby’s cats. Like a lot of preschool shows, Gabby pauses to ask the audience questions and invite them to play along.

Those elements all appear in the full-length feature film, which arrived in theaters Friday. It melds animation and live-action, but at a bigger scale.
Cohn said the goal was to create a theatrical experience, akin to a “‘Rocky Horror Picture Show’ for little kids.’ Invite them to sing, dance, clap.”
“Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” debuts at a time when the movie calendar has limited family-friendly options. The most recent major releases in this genre were Disney’s “Freakier Friday” and Universal’s “The Bad Guys 2,” both of which were released in early August.
While there has been a steady stream of family-friendly fare in recent years, it comes after a considerable dry spell caused by the pandemic and dual Hollywood labor strikes shutting down production. At the same time, consumers’ habits shifted as streaming services grew in popularity and studios shortened the time it took for movies released in cinemas to reach the home market.
But younger viewers are some of the most engaged, and a primary driver to get families out to the theater.
Kids are some of the most fervent streaming users, too, as they tend to watch the same content over and over again, leading to high engagement. That’s why kid-friendly shows have offer a unique value proposition for studios even as traditional linear television and the theatrical landscape has become less reliable.
Presenting their favorite characters in more places can mean spreading the wealth and ultimately fueling their appetites for more.
“One need only look at the big screen-small screen synergies that were created by ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ to see how ‘Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie’ could similarly make the leap from a small screen 2021 series into a big screen cinematic event in 2025,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

Heading to the big screen

A global theatrical release not only serves the strong domestic market, but extends the reach of “Gabby’s Dollhouse” internationally. Cohn noted that Europe is one region where the show is gaining traction.
“As a relatively new franchise with notable reach into the marketing world aimed at today’s youngest generations, this is a film that should capture the interest of that audience and continue showcasing its strengths as a fresh brand,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory.
And it can be a relatively affordable way to extend a franchise’s reach.
“Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” had a production budget of just over $30 million, a small investment for the likes of Universal and DreamWorks Animation compared to other theatrical kids films. For example, franchise films from Disney’s Pixar and Universal’s other animation arm, Illumination, can cost upwards of $200 million to create.

Still from Universal and Dreamworks Animation’s “Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie.”
Universal | Dreamworks Animation

“At DreamWorks, we know how to make a budget fit,” Cohn said. “We make some really big, high-budget, all-audience animated films. But then we also do smaller films like ‘Captain Underpants’ or the most recent one with ‘Dog Man.’ We know how to make high-quality movies for a lower price point.”
Paramount’s two Paw Patrol films had similarly small budgets, according to media reports. “Paw Patrol: The Movie,” released in 2021, generated $40 million domestically and more than $145 million globally, according to data from Comscore. Meanwhile, 2023’s “Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie” collected $65 million domestically and $200 globally.
Box office analysts estimated “Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” would collect between $15 million and $25 million during its opening weekend.

More than just a movie

While theatrical revenues are important, bringing “Gabby’s Dollhouse” to the big screen is part of a wider strategy. The content is part of an interconnected ecosystem that includes toys, books, merchandise and live events.
“I came from Nickelodeon,” Cohn said. “We studied the audience a lot, and we knew that they liked to watch a show, but then they wanted to play it, iterate on it, and experience the characters and ideas in their own way, in their own form. And so we developed the Gabby franchise to let them do just that.”
DreamWorks partnered with toy company Spin Master to manufacture a line of toys tied to “Gabby’s Dollhouse.” The range of products includes playsets, figures, plush toys, games and puzzles. Since launching the line, Spin Master has sold nearly 3 million dollhouses tied to the show.
Cohn said DreamWorks Animation “nurtured and brewed success” for “Gabby’s Dollhouse” with through the Spin Master partnership as well as through the production of YouTube shorts, grassroots marketing and a traveling live show presented by Walmart.
“The series just grew and grew and grew,” Cohn said. “And then it gets to a certain point you’re able to deliver on bigger strategic franchise expansion with live entertainment and shows in museums and presence in the parks and music, you know, all that comes when you have a property that kids respond to.”
“Gabby’s Dollhouse” has been a top five preschool toy property for five of the last eight quarters, according to data from Circana. It has been a top 10 property for 10 straight quarters.
In addition to toys, “Gabby’s Dollhouse” has merchandise collections with Walmart, Target and Amazon, that include apparel, home goods, games and even toothbrushes. As the film heads to theaters, audiences will be able to buy themed popcorn buckets, drink tumblers and other specialty items.
The franchise has also become part of Universal’s theme parks, with character meet-and-greets with Gabby and retail areas where guests can buy headbands, plush and apparel.
And Universal isn’t stopping there. “Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” sets up a bigger future for Gabby and a potential spin-off series. As the film credits roll, Gabby puts the finishing touches on a new dollhouse — a dog dollhouse that she says her little sister will love.
When asked about what “Gabby Dollhouse” fans can expect following the reveal, Cohn teased, “You’re gonna have to wait and see.”
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of Fandango and NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC. Versant would become the new parent company of Fandango and CNBC upon Comcast’s planned spinoff of Versant. More

Utah-based drink chain Swig kicked off the dirty soda trend, which is now helping revive the sluggish beverage category.
The trend has moved from restaurants to grocery stores, with PepsiCo planning to launch two more ready-to-drink dirty soda-inspired beverages next year.
According to Datassential, 2.7% of U.S. eateries offer a carbonated soft drink that includes cream or milk, up from 1.5% a decade ago.

Utah-based drink chain Swig coined “dirty soda” back in 2010. Fifteen years later, the trend is fueling innovation everywhere from PepsiCo to McDonald’s, infusing the sluggish beverage category with new life.
“Dirty soda” drinks use pop as a base, followed by flavored syrups, cream or other ingredients. While Swig claims credit — and the trademark — for dirty soda, TikTok videos and the reality TV show “The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives” have helped the trend spread far and wide, outpacing even the soda chain’s speedy expansion.

Now, consumers can find it nearly everywhere, from grocery store aisles to fast-food chains.
In a few weeks, Pepsi plans to unveil two ready-to-drink dirty soda-inspired beverages at the National Association of Convenience Stores trade show in Chicago. The new drinks, the Dirty Dew and the Mug Floats Vanilla Howler, follow on the heels of the Pepsi Wild Cherry & Cream flavor, which hit shelves earlier this year.
“I think it’s a great opportunity for people like us, like PepsiCo, and for consumers to experience soda in a new way — and in some ways, an old way,” Pepsi Beverages North America Chief Marketing Officer Mark Kirkham told CNBC, comparing the rise of dirty soda to root beer floats and the soda shops of yore.

PepsiCo’s lineup of dirty soda-inspired drinks includes Pepsi Wild Cherry & Cream, Dirty Mountain Dew and Mug Floats Vanilla Howler.
Source: PepsiCo

Dirty soda has also drawn new interest beyond beverage players. According to Datassential, 2.7% of U.S. eateries offer a carbonated soft drink that includes cream or milk, up from 1.5% a decade ago.
Newcomers to the trend include TGI Fridays, which launched dirty soda as a limited-time menu item this summer that could be spiked with alcohol. McDonald’s is testing flavored sodas, like a “Sprite Lunar Splash,” at more than 500 locations after winding down its drinks-focused spinoff CosMc’s in June. Yum Brands’ Taco Bell has also been offering limited-time menu items, like a dirty Mountain Dew Baja Blast.

Swig sets a trend

These days, Swig has grown to more than 140 locations across 16 states. So far this year, its same-store sales have risen 8.2%, according to the privately held company. The Larry H. Miller Company, an investment firm founded by the former Utah Jazz owner, bought a majority stake in Swig in 2022 for an undisclosed sum.
“I think we’re doing for soda what Starbucks did for coffee,” Swig CEO Alex Dunn said.
As Swig has grown, so have the number of chains looking to emulate its success. Rival soda shops like Sodalicious, Fiiz and Cool Sips are also benefiting from the trend. Coffee shops, like Dutch Bros., have also added it to their menus. And now fast-food chains are hopping on the bandwagon.
“It validates that this is a category, and McDonald’s and Taco Bell wouldn’t be getting into it if it wasn’t something that had broad appeal that they could sell everywhere, in thousands of locations,” Dunn said. “It’s kind of flattering that we created a category that now everybody is copying.”
For restaurants, adding dirty soda to the menu is easier than it might sound.
“It’s a custom drink offering that, one, allows the brands to leverage something that they already have right there: their soda machine,” said Erica Holland-Toll, culinary director at The Culinary Edge, which advises restaurants on food and beverage innovation. “Two, it incorporates either a one-touch ingredient, or if they’re already open for breakfast, it’s quite likely that they’ve got a creamer in house.”
On the other hand, offering customizable coffee drinks is usually much more difficult — which has contributed to the struggles at Starbucks.
“The espresso world — that’s so much more complicated,” Holland-Toll said.
Dirty soda also has wide appeal. With less caffeine than coffee, consumers can drink it all day long. Plus, it’s “much more accessible” than some coffee house trends, like an espresso tonic, according to Holland-Toll. The bright colors of many dirty sodas also make them more attractive to consumers, who were likely introduced to the trend via a TikTok video.
But perhaps above all, dirty soda can help restaurants draw in customers who are otherwise feeling thrifty.
“It’s an affordable fun treat. You’re not going out and spending $30 or $50, right?” said Sally Lyons Watt, chief advisor of consumer goods and foodservice insights for Circana. “It’s something that people can walk away saying, ‘Wow, that was yummy’ or ‘I feel better because I just had that.'”

A pop for beverage companies

Swig drinks.
Courtesy: Swig

A “fun treat” for consumers is adding up for beverage companies, helping reverse the decades-long trend of declining soda consumption in the U.S.
As health concerns mount and the array of beverage options expands, Americans have been drinking less soda for roughly two decades. In 2004, soda consumption peaked at 15.3 billion gallons, according to Beverage Marketing; by 2024, that figure had slid to 11.87 billion gallons. But consumption of carbonated soft drinks has been ticking up in the last two years, with 2025 estimated to reach 11.88 billion gallons. The rise of dirty soda, plus the growing popularity of prebiotic sodas, has likely helped the segment halt its downward trajectory.

Over the years, iced coffee has been stealing what the beverage industry calls “share of throat” from soda. With dirty soda, consumers can marry their love of customizing a cold drink with the lower caffeine content and taste of soda.
“The carbonation makes it feel lighter in your mouth than coffee, for example,” Holland-Toll said.
Dirty soda has also been attracting younger consumers who previously didn’t drink much Pepsi or Dr Pepper. Swig’s core customer base is young women between the ages of 18 and 35, according to Dunn.
That’s true for Holly Galvin, a 31-year-old human resources professional based in Davenport, Iowa. She told CNBC that she rarely drank soda — until she saw dirty soda take the spotlight in the “The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives” last year. Now she makes her own dirty soda once or twice a week at home. With the onset of autumn, her go-to recipe these days uses Diet Dr Pepper as a base, with pumpkin spice creamer and a sprinkle of pumpkin pie spice on top.
Broadly, younger consumers are more inclined to seek out new drinks compared with older cohorts. Nearly three-quarters of Generation Z try a new beverage every month on average, according to Keurig Dr Pepper’s 2025 trend report.
Beverage companies say that they are seeing a broader halo effect for soda as a result of the trend.
“For us, it serves as a recruitment tool, bringing new users into the trademark,” said Katie Webb, vice president of innovation and transformation for Keurig Dr Pepper. “It really draws them all the way back to the base brand, which ends up being extremely impact for us long after.”
And just as craft cocktail culture led to the rise of canned cocktails, the popularity of dirty soda is leading beverage giants to cash in with ready-to-drink versions that capitalize on the trend. Dr Pepper Creamy Coconut was the company’s most successful limited-time carbonated soft drink to date, based on retail dollar sales, according to Webb. And Kirkham said Pepsi Wild Cherry & Cream has been one of the fastest-growing flavor segments for the company.
“Some trends start retail and move over to foodservice,” Circana’s Lyons Wyatt said. “This one was a foodservice trend moving into retail.”
With Pepsi Wild Cherry & Cream and next year’s launch of Dirty Dew and the Mug Floats Vanilla Howler, Kirkham expects that consumers will become even more creative with their concoctions.
“I think it’s actually giving [consumers] the chance to experiment even more and customize more,” he said. “Now you have a brand new base.” More

Honeywell is testing new alerts that can give pilots more reaction time to avoid close calls at congested airports.
Serious airline accidents are rare, but the United States is the busiest aviation market in the world, and safety experts have urged more advanced cockpit warnings for pilots.
CNBC rode along in a Boeing 757 that serves as a test plane for Honeywell’s new suite of cockpit alerts.

ABOARD A HONEYWELL TEST PLANE — Aerospace giant Honeywell is building new cockpit alerts that developers say will give airline pilots more precious time to react to hazards at airports.
Honeywell senior test pilot Capt. Kirk Vining late last month put the alerts — called Surface Alert, or SURF-A — to the test by recreating some of the most serious near disasters at airports in recent aviation history.

Moments before landing at Topeka Regional Airport, a Gulfstream G550 business jet was stopped on the same runway where Vining was about to touch down at the Kansas airport.
“Traffic on runway!” called out the automated alert in the cockpit of Honeywell’s test plane: a 43-year-old Boeing 757, as Vining pulled up, aborted his landing and flew around the airport safely.

Honeywell’s Boeing 757 test plane on the ground in Topeka, Kansas.
Erin Black/CNBC

A host of serious close calls in recent years has raised concerns about how to better avoid them in ever-more congested airports. The National Transportation Safety Board and other safety experts have urged more advanced cockpit alerts like the ones Honeywell is testing.
Runway incursions, when a plane, person or vehicle is on the runway when they shouldn’t be, averaged 4.5 a day last year. The Federal Aviation Administration categorizes them by severity, where the top and rarest two are: “a serious incident in which a collision was narrowly avoided” followed by “an incident in which separation decreases and there is a significant potential for collision may result in a time-critical corrective/evasive response to avoid a collision.”
Serious runway incursions at U.S. airports peaked at 22 in 2023, the most in at least a decade. The FAA has added new lighting and other safety technology at airports around the country to try to get to its goal of zero close calls.

‘Good at being a bad pilot’

“He’s very good at being a bad pilot,” Thea Feyereisen, a distinguished technical fellow for Honeywell Aerospace Technologies, said of Vining. Her unit develops new cockpit features for aviators, and she said she expects the new suite to win regulator certification next year.
“Seconds count when you’re operating near the runway, and the sooner you can let the pilots know of a potential serious situation, the better,” Feyereisen said.
The Honeywell test plane wasn’t configured like a regular passenger jet, and there weren’t any paying customers on board. It had a set of roomy seats toward the front of the plane, but in the back, Honeywell flight engineers were positioned at consoles, monitoring flight data and the alerts in real time. Earlier that day, Honeywell demonstrated the technology on a flight with Department of Transportation, FAA and NTSB officials on board, a company spokesman told CNBC.
Vining performed a simulation of another incident from 2023, when an American Airlines 777 bound for London crossed a runway where a Delta Air Lines 737 was taking off instead of holding short of the runway as an air traffic controller instructed. The Delta pilot in that situation aborted takeoff and both planes landed safely at their destinations.

Consoles aboard Honeywell’s test plane, a Boeing 757.
Magdalena Petrova/CNBC

Honeywell said its SURF-A alerts could have given the pilots 10 additional seconds of reaction time with a potential collision notice. The new program Honeywell is testing uses Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast, or ADS-B data, a GPS for an airplane.
“It’s usually a very good working environment between pilots, air traffic control, airport management,” Vining said. “We get it done safely, efficiently and smoothly. But you could also see just the slightest interruption, a little variation, and things can go wrong very quickly.”
The aerospace giant already offers another suite of alerts that tells pilots if they’re about to make a mistake like landing or taking off on a taxiway instead of a runway, for example, with visual alerts on a screen as well as aural warnings — “Caution! Taxiway!” The so-called Smart X package also alerts pilots if flaps are not set correctly, if the runway is too short, or if they are coming in too high or too fast, among other situations.
“As aircraft get closer to the airports where there are other airplanes that are also flying low to the ground, attempting to land, that’s the most dangerous spot to have a collision occur,” said Jeff Guzzetti, a retired air safety investigator with the NTSB and the FAA. 
Those alerts have been on Alaska Airlines planes for years and, more recently, Southwest Airlines has added them. Honeywell said the alerts are currently flying on more than 3,000 planes operated by 20 airlines, but that’s still limited adoption with hundreds of carriers operating worldwide.
“Since we’ve implemented the software, I can’t think of an instance where we’ve had a runway incursion,” said Dave Hunt, Southwest’s vice president of safety and security and a 737 pilot.
American Airlines was also training its pilots on those alerts in the second quarter of the year, according to a lesson plan that was seen by CNBC. Last month, American received its first aircraft with the runway awareness and other alerts on board, a spokeswoman said, adding that its Boeing 737 pilots have now been trained on the tools.
The alerts aren’t required by regulators, but the FAA said it is “reviewing recommendations” from the Runway Safety Alerting Subgroup “to determine next steps,” referring to a group of airline, aerospace, pilot union, government and industry officials that last year recommended new planes include more advanced cockpit alerts in case of situational awareness issues at airports.
“The alerts occur further away from the runway so that if there’s an aircraft on the runway, you’re not having to make that decision very low to the ground,” said Jon Sites, director of flight operations safety at Alaska Airlines.

The Swiss cheese model

Honeywell’s test plane during a demonstration of new anti-collision warning technology.
Leslie Josephs/CNBC

The United States is the busiest aviation market in the world, with 44,000 flights, carrying 3 million travelers a day. Serious aviation accidents are rare, and fatal crashes are rarer still.
But a nearly 16-year streak without a fatal incident was broken on Jan. 29 when an Army Black Hawk helicopter collided into an American Airlines regional jet that was moments away from landing at Washington Reagan National Airport, killing the 67 people aboard the two aircraft and raising concerns about congested U.S. airspace to a fever pitch. 
The aviation industry relies on a so-called Swiss cheese safety model, where each slice provides protection but comes with holes that are ideally covered when safety measures are stacked on top of one another.
“Aviation is built on layers of safety upon layers,” said Sites at Alaska Airlines.
Honeywell’s demonstration flight last month from Charles B. Wheeler Downtown Airport in Kansas City, Missouri, recreated a real incident that took place on a foggy morning in February 2023 in Austin, Texas, when a FedEx Boeing 767 plane aborted landing seconds before touching down on the same runway from which an air traffic controller cleared a Southwest 737 to take off.
The FedEx pilot had seen the outline of the Southwest plane through the fog and pulled up and later landed safely. Both flights continued to their destinations safely, but the two aircraft had gotten as close as 150 feet apart, less than the length of the FedEx 767, according to federal safety investigators.
Feyereisen said Honeywell’s technology could have provided the FedEx pilots in the 2023 Austin incident 28 seconds of advanced notice of traffic on the runway, when they only had a few moments to react, according to a report from the NTSB.

Not yet required

Engineers collect data aboard a Honeywell test plane.
Magdalena Petrova/CNBC

Feyereisen said the new technology could be retrofitted on older aircraft and is available for new jets.
“In general, the software costs tens of thousands of dollars [per plane], but not hundreds of thousands of dollars,” Feyereisen said. “So if you’re looking at [a] $150 million aircraft … it is less than a half a penny per passenger cost to the operation.”
Southwest this year added the software to its fleet of about 800 Boeing 737s. It cost between $20 million and $30 million to outfit the planes, Hunt said.
“It is cheaper than an accident,” he said.
On Feb. 25, a Southwest plane aborted its arrival after it was cleared to land at Chicago Midway International Airport when a Bombardier Challenger 350 business jet advanced onto its runway, with the Southwest jet passing less than 200 feet between the aircraft, before safely landing after a go-around, according to the NTSB.
Such close calls “are very, very rare, but obviously they’re something that are concerning and that we would try to mitigate as much as possible,” said Hunt. The Honeywell software is “very effective at ensuring our pilots are aware of where they are on the airport” and “does a really good job of preventing inadvertent runway incursions while taxiing,” he added.

Limitations

A Honeywell test pilot performs a go-around because of traffic on the runway at Topeka Regional Airport in Kansas as part of a demonstration.
Erin Black/CNBC

When developing the warnings, Feyereisen said it’s key not to overwhelm pilots with too much information, known as “nuisance alerts,” which could end up being a distraction from critical safety tasks rather than a help.
“If you’re blasting alerts through a cockpit speaker at low altitudes during a critical phase of flight, such as approach to landing or takeoff, where pilots’ attention needs to be fully focused … you create too many distractions,” Southwest’s Hunt said.
There are also limitations to the existing alerts and the new programs Honeywell is testing. To avoid in-air collisions, commercial aircraft are required to have what’s called the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, or TCAS, which helps them see traffic around them in displays in the cockpit. But that system is generally used for altitudes of at least 1,000 feet.
That would not have necessarily helped the pilots on the American Airlines plane that was below 400 feet in the fatal collision with the Black Hawk helicopter in January in Washington, D.C.
“We are exploring alternatives to close that gap where you kind of can merge TCAS and ADS-B-type information together,” Feyereisen said. 
Sites, the safety director at Alaska, said the D.C. crash was “a huge, unexpected event in the industry, but it’s just, I think, our track record through the last 50 years shows that this is a very, very rare event.”
“That’s why we continue as an industry to try to find even better technology out there and enhancements to the current technology to keep this from ever happening and take the probability down to as low a level as possible,” he said. “I don’t know if in any aviation system you’ll ever get to zero, but I mean, we’re going to try to get as close to zero probability as we can.”
— CNBC’s Erin Black contributed to this report. More