Raphael Stevens

This is a comparison of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement with the one issued after the Fed’s previous policymaking meeting in December.
Text removed from the December statement is in red with a horizontal line through the middle.

Text appearing for the first time in the new statement is in red and underlined.
Black text appears in both statements.

Arrows pointing outwards

Watch here for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. More

The Federal Reserve left unchanged its overnight borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%.
The decision followed three straight cuts since September 2024.
The post-meeting statement offered a somewhat more optimistic view on the labor market while dropping a key reference from the December statement that inflation “has made progress toward” the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.

The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate in check Wednesday, reversing a recent trend of easing policy as it examines what is likely to be a bumpy political and economic landscape ahead.
In a widely anticipated move, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee left unchanged its overnight borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%.

The decision followed three straight cuts since September 2024 worth a full percentage point and marked the first Fed meeting since frequent Fed critic Donald Trump assumed the presidency last week and almost immediately made known his intentions that he wants the central bank to cut rates.
The post-meeting statement dropped a few clues about the reasoning behind the decision to hold rates steady. It offered a somewhat more optimistic view on the labor market while losing a key reference from the December statement that inflation “has made progress toward” the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.

“The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid,” the new language read. “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”
A stronger labor market and stubborn inflation would provide less incentive for the Fed to ease policy. The statement again indicated that the economy “has continued to expand at a solid pace.”
During a news conference, Chair Jerome Powell added that the labor market has not been a significant source of inflationary pressure. He said the central bank would need to see “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market before we consider making adjustments.”

Stocks fell after the decision to leave rates unchanged.
Recent statements from policymakers have shown some apprehension about whether progress in bringing down inflation has stalled. Officials also have said they want to see how the previous cuts are working their way through the economy though most expect rate reductions this year.

No contact with Trump

In addition, the decision comes against a volatile political backdrop.
In a little over a week, Trump has cut a swath through Washington policy and political norms as he has signed hundreds of executive orders that seek to implement an aggressive agenda. The president has backed tariffs as both an economic and foreign policy tool, ordered a wave of deportations against those crossing the border illegally, and has put forth a series of deregulatory measures.
Moreover, Trump last week spoke of his confidence that he will bring down inflation and said he would “demand” that interest rates be lowered “immediately.” Though the president has no authority over the Fed other than to nominate board members, Trump’s statement signaled a potentially contentious relationship with the policymakers much like during his first term.
Powell said he has not had any contact with the president since he made those statements.

Inflation lower but not at target

Inflation has moved down sharply from the 40-year peak it hit in mid-2022, but the Fed’s 2% goal has remained elusive. In fact, the central bank’s preferred pricing gauge showed headline inflation ticked higher to 2.4% in November, the highest since July, while the core measure excluding food and energy held at 2.8%.
Traders had been pricing in a nearly 100% probability of the Fed holding the line at this meeting and in fact don’t see another cut coming until June. Markets are pricing in a funds rate of about 3.9% by the end of 2025, implying a 61% probability of two quarter percentage point cuts this year, according to CME Group data.
Economic growth has been solid and consumer spending held up well during 2024. Gross domestic product is tracking at an annualized growth rate of 2.3% for the fourth quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed, which lowered the estimate Wednesday from the previous outlook for 3.2% as data on private domestic investment weakened.
The meeting also featured a changed voting composition on the FOMC. Powell and the other seven board of governors members are joined this year as voters by regional Presidents Austan Goolsbee of Chicago, Alberto Musalem of St. Louis, Susan Collins of Boston and Jeffrey Schmid from Kansas City. The vote to keep the funds rate unchanged was unanimous.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

President Donald Trump likes fast food almost as much as he loves tariffs. During a government shutdown in his first term, he laid on a banquet of burgers and “many, many French fries” for a visiting American football team. During the 2016 campaign, according to one aide, he would often order two fish burgers and two Big Macs (although he removed the buns). More

Billionaire investor Steve Cohen is standing by his long-term bullish view of artificial intelligence despite the wild volatility recently.
Cohen, who also owns the New York Mets, said the AI boom could see ups and downs and the lack of accurate information could exacerbate volatility around AI-related investments.

Steve Cohen, chairman and CEO of Point72, speaking to CNBC on April 3, 2024.

MIAMI BEACH, Fla. — Billionaire investor Steve Cohen is standing by his long-term bullish view of artificial intelligence despite the wild volatility recently, saying the transformational shift could take decades to realize.
“This is a 10- to 20-year theme. It’s gonna affect everybody in how they conduct their lives, how they do their business,” Cohen said at the iConnections Global Alts conference on Tuesday. “We’re still in the first, second inning of something that’s going to be transformational for the economy and the world. … It is such a dramatic, important shift that to ignore it, I think it’s a mistake.”

The comment from the chairman and CEO of hedge fund Point72 came as young Chinese AI startup DeepSeek sparked a massive rout in U.S. technology stocks Monday. DeepSeek’s highly competitive models made seemingly from a fraction of the cost shook up investor confidence of the AI story and the hype around Nvidia’s chips.
Cohen, who also owns the New York Mets, said the AI boom could see ups and downs and the lack of accurate information could exacerbate volatility around AI-related investments.
“It’s going to be episodic. It’s not going to go in a straight line. There’ll be advances, and then it goes quiet,” Cohen said. “And there’re going to be moments when people are going to doubt it like yesterday. There’s a lot of people who own these stocks who perhaps don’t know what they own and why they own it, other than they know they should own some AI securities. And so you get a lot of misinformation.”
Nvidia, AI’s biggest enabler so far, saw shares tank 17% on Monday, or almost $600 billion in market value, the biggest ever one-day drop in value for a U.S. company. The megacap name rebounded nearly 9% Tuesday.
Cohen also said his firm expects to raise $1.5 billion for its new AI-focused hedge fund to capitalize on the boom.

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO More

The Fed gathers this week for the first time in the second presidential term of Donald Trump, who has already signaled that he wants lower interest rates.
Market pricing is pointing to a near 100% certainty that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will keep the central bank’s policy rate in a target range of 4.25%-4.5%.
“It’s the right call to stay steady,” former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told CNBC.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Washington, DC, on December 18, 2024. 
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images

The Federal Reserve gathers this week for the first time in the second presidential term of Donald Trump, who has already signaled that he wants lower interest rates.
If virtually every indication so far is accurate, the new leader of the free world is unlikely to get what he wants, at least not yet, as officials weigh multiple variables that could make policymaking difficult this year and are likely to keep the Fed on hold.

“They’re probably going to be taking a back seat,” said U.S. Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino. “Nobody knows what to expect from the White House. The policy moves are still very unclear, but we do know that a number of those proposals that have been talked about in the White House are a bit inflationary, and I think that’s going to keep the Fed in check.”
Indeed, market pricing is pointing to a near 100% certainty that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will keep the central bank’s policy rate in a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, according to CME Group data.
In fact, traders see the Fed on hold until June, a span during which Trump’s plans for tariffs, regulations and immigration are likely to come more clearly into view. Trump said Thursday he will “demand that interest rates drop immediately,” though he does not have authority over the Fed’s decisions.
The Fed has cut rates at each of its last three meetings, reducing its short-term borrowing rate by a full percentage point. The rate decision will be released Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
Despite the White House pressure, central bankers should hold firm and take a break from policy changes, said former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan.

“It’s the right call to stay steady. Inflation progress is maybe not stalled but it’s going sideways, and you’ve got four or five big structural changes underway and about to unfold,” Kaplan, now a Goldman Sachs executive, said Monday in a CNBC interview. “The right thing to do is to do nothing in this meeting.”

Kaplan cited three changes that could be disinflationary: government spending cuts, regulatory review from the newly minted advisory panel dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency, and Trump’s “drill baby drill” approach to energy as well as expected efforts to make the sector’s architecture more efficient.
On the inflation side, Kaplan sees the potential for tariffs to boost prices higher, while mass deportations — which began in earnest this week — could drive up labor costs.
“What Trump obviously would love them to do is speed their analysis, speed their assessment of these new policies and act sooner, even than what they’re comfortable,” Kaplan said. “The job of the folks at the Fed, in this case, is to do their analysis and don’t act until you have confidence.”
This meeting will not feature an update of the Fed’s quarterly economic projections, including the “dot plot” of individual members’ estimates for where interest rates are headed. At the December meeting, participants reduced their expected number of rate cuts to two from four previously, assuming each cut is made in increments of a quarter percentage point.
Investors will be left to pore through the post-meeting statement, which is expected to be little changed, then turn to Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Powell had a contentious relationship with Trump during the president’s first go-round in the Oval Office, from 2017 to 2021, and he likely will be asked to respond to the president’s demand for lower rates.
“The Fed must follow its legislative mandate,” former Kansas City Fed President Esther George told CNBC in an interview Friday. “Congress has told us it is to bring prices to a low and stable level. In the long run, this institution has to think about those objectives rather than be swayed by outside commentary and political pressure that will come its way, as it has for its entire existence.” More