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    Jerome Powell (almost) declares victory over inflation

    For economists and investors accustomed to staring at charts, the jagged peaks of the Teton mountains possess more than a passing resemblance to financial trend lines. They also form the backdrop to one of the year’s most keenly awaited central-bank speeches: annual reflections by the chair of the Federal Reserve at a conference hall in Jackson Hole, located in the valley below the Teton range. On August 23rd Jerome Powell did not disappoint. He made clear that having raised interest rates as sharply as any of the slopes in the distance, the central bank was now ready to begin the descent. More

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    U.S. will again offer free at-home Covid tests starting in late September

    The Biden administration will resume offering free at-home Covid tests to American households in late September amid a summer surge of the virus. 
    Americans will soon be able to use COVIDtests.gov to request four free tests, administration officials told reporters.
    The tests will be able to detect the currently circulating Covid variants, most of which are descendants of the highly contagious omicron variant JN.1. 

    Images By Tang Ming Tung | DigitalVision | Getty Images

    The Biden administration on Friday said it will resume offering free at-home Covid-19 tests to American households in late September as the virus has gained a stronger foothold in the U.S. this summer.
    Americans will soon be able to use COVIDtests.gov to request four free tests, administration officials told reporters during a briefing. The tests will be able to detect the Covid variants that are currently circulating, most of which are descendants of the highly contagious omicron variant JN.1. 

    “These tests will help keep families and their loved ones safe this fall and winter season,” Dawn O’Connell, an assistant secretary for preparedness and response at the Health and Human Services Department, said during the briefing. “This is the seventh time over the last three years that the Biden-Harris administration has given families the opportunity to order the over-the-counter Covid-19 tests for free” through the government’s website.
    The government’s program has provided more than 1.8 billion free over-the-counter Covid tests to Americans since it started in 2021, according to O’Connell.
    The government is relaunching the program amid a relatively large spike in Covid cases this summer, and ahead of the fall and winter, when the virus typically spreads at higher levels each year. There is a “high” or “very high” level of Covid being detected in wastewater in almost every U.S. state, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 
    But the government decided to reopen the program in late September because it’s when more Americans begin to travel and gather indoors with loved ones. 

    More CNBC health coverage

    “As people start to travel, as they start to get together with friends and family through the holidays, we want them to have those four tests available to them at that time,” David Boucher, director of infectious disease preparedness and response at HHS, told reporters during the briefing.

    By then, the latest round of Covid shots from Pfizer and Moderna will be available to most Americans in pharmacies, health clinics and other locations nationwide. The Food and Drug Administration approved those shots, which target a JN.1 offshoot called KP.2, on Thursday.
    Testing is a critical tool for protection as Covid infections climb again. But lab PCR tests — the traditional method of detecting Covid — have become more expensive and less accessible for some Americans since the U.S. government ended the public health emergency in May last year. 
    Still, certain local health clinics and community sites offer at-home tests to the public at no cost. 

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    Delta chief operations officer departing for another company after just over a year on the job

    Delta said COO Mike Spanos would leave at the end of the month for another job.
    Spanos started at Delta as operations chief in May 2023 after holding leadership roles at Six Flags and Pepsi.
    His departure comes weeks after Delta’s meltdown in the wake of a massive CrowdStrike outage, though CEO Ed Bastian said Spanos told him earlier in the summer that he was considering other opportunities outside of the airline.

    Delta Air Lines planes sit parked at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta on June 28, 2024.
    Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

    Delta Air Lines’ chief operating officer is leaving at the end of the month, the company said in a securities filing Friday.
    CEO Ed Bastian said in an employee memo that Chief Operating Officer Mike Spanos is taking a job at another company.

    His departure, after just over a year on the job, comes weeks after Delta suffered a meltdown in the wake of the massive CrowdStrike outage in July. Delta estimates those disruptions cost the airline some $500 million and said it will seek compensation from CrowdStrike and Microsoft.

    Read more CNBC airline news

    However, Bastian said in the memo Friday that Spanos told him earlier in the summer that he was “considering opportunities outside of Delta.”
    Delta doesn’t plan to replace Spanos, Bastian said. Instead, John Laughter, chief of operations and president of Delta’s TechOps maintenance and overhaul unit, and Allison Ausband, chief customer experience officer, will report to Bastian.
    Spanos joined Delta in May 2023 and previously held the role of CEO at Six Flags Entertainment and executive positions at PepsiCo.

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    Fed Chair Powell indicates interest rate cuts ahead: ‘The time has come for policy to adjust’

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent.
    “The time has come for policy to adjust,” the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
    In addition to assessing the current state of play, Powell took considerable time in the speech to evaluate what led to the surge in inflation.

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent.
    “The time has come for policy to adjust,” the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

    Watch live: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks from Jackson Hole conference
    With markets awaiting direction on where monetary policy is headed, Powell focused as much on a look back at what caused the inflation that led to an aggressive series of 11 rate hikes from March 2022 through July 2023.
    However, he did note the progress on inflation and said the Fed can now turn its focus equally to the other side of its dual mandate, namely to make sure the economy stays around full employment.
    “Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic,” Powell said. “Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed.”
    He vowed that “we will do everything we can” to make sure the labor market says strong and progress on inflation continues.

    Stocks added to gains as Powell began to speak while Treasury yields dropped sharply . Traders maintained a 100% chance of at least a quarter percentage point rate cut in September and raised the odds of a potential half-point reduction to about 1-in-3, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
    “This was a valedictory of essentially Chair Powell turning the page, saying the mission, which has been focused on inflation for the last two years, has been successful,” economist Paul McCulley, a former Pimco managing director, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”

    Sees progress toward goals

    The speech comes with the inflation rate consistently drifting back to the Fed’s 2% target though still not there yet. A gauge the Fed prefers to measure inflation most recently showed the rate at 2.5%, down from 3.2% a year ago and well off its peak above 7% in June 2022.
    At the same time, the unemployment rate has slowly but consistently climbed higher, most recently at 4.3% and in an area that otherwise would trigger a time-tested indicator of a recession. However, Powell attributed the rise in unemployment to more individuals entering the workforce and a slower pace of hiring, rather than a rise in layoffs or a general deterioration in the labor market.
    “Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market, avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored,” he said. “While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.”
    Markets are expecting the Fed to start cutting in September, though Powell made no mention of when he thinks policy easing will begin. Minutes from the July open market committee meeting, released Wednesday, noted that a “vast majority” of officials believe a September cut will be appropriate so long as there are no data surprises.
    “He’s pretty dovish. He bought the option to do whatever he needs to do next month, which is clearly an ease,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “I don’t think the bar for 50 [basis points] is particularly high.”
    In addition to assessing the current state of play, Powell took considerable time in the speech to evaluate what led to the surge in inflation — hitting its highest level in more than 40 years — as well as the Fed’s policy response and why price pressures have eased without a recession.

    ‘Good ship Transitory’

    When inflation first began to rise in early 2021, he and his colleagues — as well as many Wall Street economists — dismissed it as “transitory” and caused by Covid-related factors that would abate.
    “The good ship Transitory was a crowded one,” Powell quipped to laughter form attendees, “with most mainstream analysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board. I think I see some former shipmates out there today.”
    When it became clear that inflation was spreading from goods to services, the Fed pivoted and began hiking, ultimately adding 5.25 percentage points to its benchmark overnight rate that had been around zero following emergency cuts in the early pandemic days.
    The rise in inflation, Powell said, was “a global phenomenon,” the result of “rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices.”
    He attributed confidence in the Fed and well-anchored expectations that inflation ultimately would ease to the economy avoiding a sharp downturn during the hiking cycle.
    “The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities, and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability,” he said. “An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations, reinforced by vigorous central bank actions, can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack.”
    Powell added that there is still “much to be learned” from the experience.
    “That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may differ,” he said.
    Correction: The Fed hiked rates 11 times from March 2022 through July 2023. An earlier version misstated the number.

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    Why Ford believes its $1.9 billion shift in EV strategy is the right choice for the company, investors

    Ford Motor believes prioritizing smaller vehicles will help the company on its path to EV profitability.
    The automaker wants to expand its growingly popular hybrid models and create more affordable electric vehicles that it believes will better compete against Chinese competitors.
    But its shift in focus — which involves canceling a large, three-row electric SUV and other changes — will cost the Detroit automaker up to $1.9 billion in expenses and write-downs.

    A banner advertises the Ford Mustang Mach-E electric vehicle at a Ford dealership on August 21, 2024 in Glendale, California. 
    Mario Tama | Getty Images

    DETROIT – Ford Motor’s profit engine for decades has been large trucks and SUVs in the U.S. So it might surprise investors that the automaker believes its new path to profitability for electric vehicles will first be led by smaller, more affordable vehicles.
    The new plan is an “insurance policy” for the automaker to be able to expand its growingly popular hybrid models and create more affordable EVs that it believes will deliver a more capital-efficient, profitable electric vehicle business for the company and investors, according to Marin Gjaja, Ford’s chief operating officer for its Model e EV unit.

    “We’re quite convinced that the highest adoption rates for electric vehicles will be in the affordable segment on the lower size-end of the range,” he told CNBC on Thursday. “We have to play there in order to compete with the entrants that are coming.”
    Those expected newcomers are largely Chinese automakers, such as Warren Buffett-backed BYD, that have been rapidly growing from their home market to Europe and other countries.
    Gjaja’s comments come a day after the automaker announced updates to its EV strategy that will cost up to $1.9 billion. That includes about $400 million for the write-down of manufacturing assets, as well as additional expenses and cash expenditures of up to $1.5 billion.

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    Ford, Tesla and GM stocks

    Ford’s new plans for North America include canceling a large, electric three-row SUV that was already far in development, delaying production of its next-generation “T3” electric full-size pickup truck by about 18 months until late 2027, and refocusing battery production and sourcing to the U.S.
    Instead of the three-row SUV or large pickup, the company’s first new EV is expected to be a commercial van in 2026, followed the next year by a midsized pickup and then the T3 full-size pickup.

    Gjaja said the decision wasn’t taken lightly, especially the cancellation of the upcoming three-row vehicle, which Ford CEO Jim Farley and other executives had been touting as a game-changer for several years.
    The commercial van comes as Ford’s “Pro” commercial vehicle and fleet business, which includes vans and large Super Duty trucks, has been a standout for the company and offset billions of dollars in EV losses.
    And the midsize pickup is scheduled to be the first vehicle from a specialized “skunkworks” team in California, The company had tasked the team two years ago with developing a new small EV platform.
    “We believe smaller, more affordable vehicles are the way to go for EV in volume. Why? Because the math is completely different than [internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles],” Farley told investors last month. “In ICE, a business we’ve been in for 120 years, the bigger the vehicle, the higher the margin. But it’s exactly the opposite for EVs.”
    Farley has said the weight and cost of battery packs needed for large vehicles such as a three-row SUV, which many families buy for road trips, towing and hauling, are a limitation for EVs due to current ranges and charging networks.

    Read more CNBC auto news

    Ford’s current EVs — the Mustang Mach-E crossover, F-150 Lightning and a commercial van in the U.S. – are not profitable overall. The Model e operations have lost nearly $2.5 billion during the first half of this year and lost $4.7 billion in 2023.
    The losses, as well as changing market conditions and business plans, caused Ford earlier this year to withdraw an ambitious 8% profit margin for its EV unit by 2026.
    Investors and Wall Street analysts have largely supported the EV changes, most recently sending shares up about 2.3% since the announcement earlier this week, despite the expected costs.
    “Overall, these changes will position Ford to benefit from growing demand for EVs, while also focusing on areas in which it has a Core competitive advantage,” BofA’s John Murphy wrote Wednesday in an investor note. “Given the size of the charge, this is clearly a tough decision in the short-term, but we think makes sense in the medium to long-term given what will likely be subpar economics in the three-row CUV/SUV segment.”

    More hybrids, less EVs

    The updates are the latest for Ford’s electrification plans, which now include a heavy focus on hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, to assist in meeting tightening fuel economy regulations in addition to all-electric vehicles.
    Ford CFO John Lawler said Wednesday the company’s future capital expenditure plans will shift from spending about 40% on all-electric vehicles to spending 30%. He did not give a timeline for the change, but it’s a massive swing from when the company announced plans in 2021 to spend more than $30 billion on EVs through 2025.
    The hybrid plans include offering such options across its entire North American lineup by 2030, including three-row SUVs, to assist in meeting tightening emissions and fuel economy requirements. Lawler said that to improve profitability, Ford is also accelerating the mix of battery production in the U.S. that will qualify for tax incentives and credits.

    A Ford F-150 Lariat PowerBoost hybrid pickup truck is displayed for sale at a Ford dealership on August 21, 2024 in Glendale, California. 
    Mario Tama | Getty Images

    The shift in Ford’s plans is consistent with the overall auto industry, which is facing growing, but slower-than-expected adoption of EVs, as well as automakers not being able to achieve expected profitability on the vehicles.
    “What we saw in ’21 and ’22 was a temporary market spike where the demand for EVs really took off,” Gjaja told CNBC during an interview earlier this year. “It’s still growing but not nearly at the rate we thought it might have in ’21, ’22.”
    There’s also an industry-wide fear that Chinese automakers could be able to flood markets with cheaper, more profitable EVs. Chinese automakers such as Warren Buffett-backed BYD are quickly growing exports of vehicles to Europe and other countries.
    Lawler pushed back Wednesday on the idea that the Chinese have out-gunned American automakers. He said the Ford, in part, developed the “skunkworks” team to prove that Ford can compete against the Chinese automakers.
    “As we’ve watched in the last 18 to 24 months, the emergence of incredible products and formidable competitors in China has really been, I think, the story for us,” Gjaja said. “And so now, when we look at the competitive landscape, we have to chin ourselves against the most competitive companies in China.”

    Ford vs. GM

    Ford’s new plans are polar opposite of its closest rival, General Motors.
    America’s largest automaker has pulled back spending and delayed many of its EVs, but it has several large all-electric vehicles on sale on coming soon.
    GM was among the first to go “all-in” on EVs, including by creating a vertically integrated, dedicated electric vehicle platform and supporting technologies such as batteries and motors.

    2025 Cadillac Escalade IQ
    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    Aside from Tesla, GM was the first automaker to begin U.S. battery cell manufacturing through a joint venture at scale, which the company has continued to tout as a cost advantage
    GM’s current lineup includes three all-electric large pickup trucks, a Hummer SUV, two recently launched Chevrolet crossovers and a luxury Cadillac crossover and $300,000 Celestiq car. Several more crossover models and an all-electric Escalade SUV are expected to join the lineup this year as well.
    As recently as last month, GM reconfirmed expectations for its EVs to be profitable on a production, or contribution-margin basis, once it reaches output of 200,000 units by the fourth quarter.
    A GM spokesman Thursday said the automaker continues “to work to reach variable profit positive during the fourth quarter.”
    Gjaja declined to comment on GM’s target or operations but said Ford is doing what’s best for the company.
    “We’re focusing on what we think are the right technologies to serve our customers that can also be affordable for them and profitable for us,” he said. More

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    Classic car sales stall in Monterey auctions as new generation takes charge

    Of the 1,143 cars up for sale at Monterey Car Week, only 821 sold — marking a 72% sell-through rate, according to classic-car insurance company Hagerty.
    The average sale price was $476,965, down slightly from last year’s average of $477,866.
    That’s in part because a new generation of collectors is driving the market — mainly Gen Xers and millennials — who prefer cars from the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.

    A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
    Auction sales during Monterey Car Week fell 3% from last year, as a shift from older to newer cars left a pileup of unsold classics from the 1950s and 1960s.

    Total sales at this year’s five car auctioneers in Monterey — RM Sotheby’s, Broad Arrow, Gooding & Company, Mecum and Bonhams — fell to $391.6 million this year from $403 million in 2023, according to Hagerty, the classic-car insurance company. That followed a decline of 14% last year compared with the peak of 2022.
    Of the 1,143 cars up for sale, only 821 sold — marking a 72% sell-through rate, according to Hagerty. The average sale price was $476,965, down slightly from last year’s average of $477,866.

    Experts say wealthy collectors still have plenty of money to spend and are feeling confident given the recent rise in the stock market, but the types of cars they want are changing. There were simply too many similar cars at too many auctions to generate strong prices and sales.
    “It’s saturation,” said Simon Kidston, the founder of Kidston and a leading advisor to wealthy car collectors. “When I walked around the auctions and saw so much similar ‘product,’ I asked myself if any of them had thought about what they or their rivals already had consigned, and if the cars were vying for the same buyers. Add to that the fact that many entries had already been in dealer windows for months or years which always feels like sloppy seconds.”
    At the same time, a new generation of collectors driving the market — mainly Gen Xers and millennials — prefer cars from the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. The 1950s and 1960s classic cars that powered the market for decades and are popular with baby boomers are pouring onto the market and failing to find buyers.

    The sell-through rate in Monterey (or the percentage of cars that actually sold on the auction block) was an anemic 52% for pre-1981 cars priced at $1 million or more, according to Hagerty. The sell-through rate for cars less than 4 years old was a much stronger 73% — proving that young collectors are now in the driver’s seat.
    Hagerty’s Supercar Index of sports cars from the 1980s through the 2000s is up over 60% from 2019, while the Blue Chip Index of 1950s and 1960s Corvettes, Ferraris, Jaguars and other storied classics is down 3%.

    The 1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider
    Credit: Gooding & Company

    Granted, a small number of rare, true masterpieces will still fetch high prices. The top car of the week was a 1960 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider that sold at RM Sotheby’s for $17 million and the runner-up was a 1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider that’s one of only five in existence.
    Yet the broader changing of the guard in classic cars, especially as many older collectors start selling off or downsizing their collections, is likely to weigh on prices for older cars for years.

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    “From an auction perspective, the market continues to take a breath while we transition from what was hot, think Enzo-era Ferraris, the so-called full classics as well as ’50s and ’60s sports racers, to the ascendant modern supercar class,” said McKeel Hagerty, CEO of Hagerty. “The divergence between older and newer cars has accelerated.”
    Some say high interest rates are also putting pressure on the classic-car market. At the lower end of the market, many buyers had been using financing to buy cars and build their collections. At the high end, rising rates raised the opportunity cost of buying a classic car.
    “People think, ‘Instead of that million-dollar car, I could be earning 5% maybe 10%’ if you’ve got a great manager,” Kidston said. “That, more than anything else, makes people think twice. A collector car is partially investment. There’s no other single reason for the increase in the value of collector cars over the last 40 years than the investment angle.”

    Here are the top 10 most expensive cars sold during Monterey Car Week

    1960 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider – $17,055,000 (RM Sotheby’s)
    1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider – $14,030,000 (Gooding & Company)  
    1955 Ferrari 410 Sport Spider – $12,985,000 (RM Sotheby’s)
    1969 Ford GT40 Lightweight – $7,865,000 (Mecum)
    1997 Porsche 911 GT1 Rennversion Coupe – $7,045,000 (Broad Arrow Auctions) 
    1959 Ferrari 250 GT LWB California Spider – $5,615,000 (RM Sotheby’s) 
    1995 Ferrari F50 Coupe – $5,505,000 (RM Sotheby’s) 
    1955 Ferrari 857 S Spider – $5,350,000 (Gooding & Company)  
    1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 Alloy Coupe – $5,285,000 (RM Sotheby’s)  
    1958 Ferrari 250 GT TdF Coupe – $5,200,000 (Gooding & Company)  More

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    Why remote work has staying power: It’s ‘still kicking,’ economist says

    Remote work surged during the Covid-19 pandemic and appears to have staying power.
    It has endured largely because it has perceived benefits for both workers and employers, economists said.

    Taiyou Nomachi | Digitalvision | Getty Images

    Remote work, a trend that sprang to prominence during the Covid-19 pandemic, appears to be an entrenched fixture of the U.S. labor market, according to economists.
    The work-from-home revolution is “one of the major shifts in the U.S. labor market in the last couple decades,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at job site Indeed.

    “It’s still kicking,” he said. “It’ll probably be around for a long time.”
    The remote work label includes workers who do their jobs from home full time and so-called “hybrid” arrangements, whereby businesses might ask employees to work a few days of the workweek from the office and the rest from home.

    Such arrangements were rare before the pandemic, economists said.
    However, they became prolific amid stay-at-home orders during the early days of the pandemic.
    While remote work opportunities have waned from their peak, they appear to have stabilized well above their pre-pandemic levels, economists said.

    The number of days worked from home during the workweek has held steady since early 2023 at between 25% and 30%, more than triple the pre-Covid rate, according to WFH Research data as of July.  
    The share of online job listings that advertise for remote or hybrid work also appears to have leveled off at just below 8%, about three times higher than in 2019, according to Indeed data as of June 30.
    “Remote work is not going away,” Nick Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University who studies workplace management practices, recently told CNBC.

    Why remote work has endured

    Remote work has endured largely because it benefits both workers and employers, economists said.
    For example, Bloom’s research suggests workers value hybrid work about as much as they would an 8% raise.
    “It matters a lot, to a lot of job seekers,” making it difficult for employers to “wrench away” that aspect of work, Bunker said.
    More from Personal Finance:How EVs and gasoline cars compare on total costWhy free school lunches for all may become a campaign issueThe federal minimum wage has been $7.25 for 15 years
    Remote work is also a profitable arrangement for businesses, economists said.
    For example, they might save money on real estate by downsizing their office space. Remote work also opens up the pool of potential candidates during hiring, Bunker said.
    Workers who can work remotely also tend to quit less frequently because they value the arrangement, thereby reducing company outlays on hiring, recruitment and training, Bloom said.
    Of course, not all jobs can be done from home. About 36% of employees with jobs that could be done remotely were instead working in the office full time as of July, according to WFH Research.

    Companies have pointed to downsides of remote work, including a reduced ability to observe and monitor employees and reduced peer mentoring, cited by 45% and 42% of employers, respectively, according to a 2023 ZipRecruiter survey.
    An economic downturn could potentially trigger employers to pull back on remote work, to the extent workers lose leverage, Bunker said.
    However, he questions whether many would do so, given the aforementioned financial benefits of remote work. Additionally, such a move would likely reduce morale and worker productivity during a period of already-low morale, he added.  

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