Raphael Stevens

Most people taking GLP-1 medications say they are spending less on eating out at restaurants and ordering takeout, according to a new Morgan Stanley survey.
A smaller share of those surveyed say they are tightening their purse strings in the grocery store.
The findings add to concerns that soaring demand for GLP-1s could take a bite out of the bottom lines of some of the biggest restaurant companies and packaged food makers.
Some food and restaurant companies are more at risk than others.

A food delivery messenger carries a take out bag outside aSweetgreen in Manhattan on September 14, 2023.
Jeenah Moon | The Washington Post | Getty Images

A highly popular group of weight loss and diabetes drugs is decreasing some consumers’ appetites — and also how much they spend on food.
Most people taking those medications, called GLP-1s, say they are spending less on eating out at restaurants and ordering takeout, according to a Morgan Stanley survey released on Tuesday. A smaller share of those surveyed say they are tightening their purse strings in the grocery store.

The findings add to the mounting concerns that soaring demand for GLP-1s could take a bite out of the bottom lines of some of the biggest restaurant companies and makers of packaged snacks like Doritos, Oreos and Hershey’s Kisses. GLP-1s include Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster weight loss injection Wegovy and diabetes counterpart Ozempic, along with Eli Lilly’s popular weight loss treatment Zepbound and diabetes injection Mounjaro. 
The rising demand for these four drugs isn’t expected to ease anytime soon. In the new survey, Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect the market for GLP-1s to be worth $105 billion by 2030. They also estimate that 31.5 million people, or around 9% of the U.S. population, will take GLP-1s by 2035. 
“There is growing evidence that the drugs have a meaningful impact on consumer behavior and spending on groceries and restaurants,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in the survey. “All of these dynamics suggest GLP-1 drugs’ impact across consumer sectors is set to increase as drug uptake grows and the drugs reshape behavior among a demographic group that represents a disproportionate share of calorie consumption.”

But many food and beverage companies have reassured investors over the last few months that it’s still unclear how much those drugs will lower their revenue. Morgan Stanley also said in the survey that GLP-1s are a manageable long-term pressure on restaurants, not an “existential risk.”  
“Restaurants offer convenience and/or experience in addition to food, and that won’t change with GLP-1 usage,” the analysts said. But some restaurants may have to adapt to health-conscious consumer behaviors, they noted. 

Healthier fast-casual restaurants and coffee are better positioned to manage the increasing consumer use of GLP-1s, including Cava, Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Starbucks, according to Morgan Stanley. Domestic service restaurants and “more indulgent” fast-casual restaurants could face more pressure, including Jack in the Box, Wendy’s, Wingstop, Shake Shack and Portillos. 
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley views Hershey as the most at-risk among packaged food companies given its American consumer-focused snacking portfolio. Companies that offer healthy foods should benefit from GLP-1s, including Vital Farms, Bellring Brands, Simply Good Foods, the firm said. 
Among beverage companies, those that produce alcoholic drinks are at the highest risk. Those include Molson Coors, Boston Beer, Constellation Brands and Diageo, according to Morgan Stanley.

Boxes of Wegovy made by Novo Nordisk are seen at a pharmacy in London, Britain March 8, 2024. 
Hollie Adams | Reuters

Morgan Stanley conducted the survey of 300 consumers who are currently taking GLP-1 drugs in February. Those people are “early in their weight loss journey,” but are making substantial changes to their diets and spending, according to the firm.
When asked to gauge how their monthly spending on eating out at restaurants has changed since starting a GLP-1, 63% of the consumers said they are spending less, 28% said they are spending about the same amount, and 9% said they are spending more. Meanwhile, 61% said they are spending less on deliveries or takeout from restaurants, 31% said they are spending around the same amount and 8% said they are spending more. 
Fewer participants said they lowered their grocery spending since they started a GLP-1: 31% said they are spending less, 46% said they are spending around the same amount and 23% said they are spending more. 
The survey also found that people tended to stick with the same restaurant but changed the kinds of meals they ordered.
When asked whether they finish less of the food they order in one sitting when dining out, 42% of participants said “always” or “most of the time,” and 44% said “occasionally.” Forty-one percent said they are “always” or “most of the time” ordering smaller portions of food overall, while 43% said they are only sometimes doing that. 
Consumers in the survey reported reduced food consumption across the board, but the difference is most notable on snacks, confections, carbonated and sugary drinks and alcohol, according to the Morgan Stanley survery. Roughly half of people reported cutting consumption of regular sodas, alcohol and salty snacks by 50% or more since starting on weight loss drugs. Twenty-two percent reported stopping alcohol consumption entirely. 

Based on those results, Morgan Stanley forecasts that consumption of ice cream, cakes, cookies, candy, chocolate, frozen pizzas, chips and regular sodas could fall 4% to 5% by 2035. The firm also expects a roughly 3% decrease in consumption of alcohol, frozen popcorn or pretzels, crackers, cereals, cheese, gum or mints and energy drinks, among others. 
Pre-packaged fruit juices, soups, sports drinks, coffee, frozen diet meals, tea, granola and energy bars are among the foods that will see the least reduction in consumption, the firm said. 
Notably, the survey also found that 40% of participants reported smoking traditional cigarettes at least weekly before starting a GLP-1, but that number declined to 24% after treatment. Weekly e-cigarette use similarly fell from 30% to 16% of respondents. 
However, Morgan Stanley said it is cautious about drawing conclusions from the survey on the impact of GLP-1s on addictive behaviors such as smoking. The firm said it is monitoring the ongoing medical research in that area.

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Volkswagen workers in Tennessee have voted to join the United Auto Workers — marking the union’s first successful organizing drive of a foreign automaker.
UAW leaders and supporters are expected to use the win as a launching point for the union’s unprecedented organizing campaign of 13 automakers in the U.S.
The UAW previously failed to organize the Volkswagen plant amid greater outside political pressure and worker opposition in 2014 and 2019.

Kelcey Smith displays UAW buttons in Chattanooga, Tennessee on April 10, 2024. 
Kevin Wurm | The Washington Post | Getty Images

Volkswagen workers in Chattanooga, Tennessee, have overwhelmingly voted to join the United Auto Workers — marking a major milestone for the union and its first successful organizing drive of an automaker outside of Detroit’s Big Three.
Union organizing passed with 73% of the vote, or 2,628 workers, in support for the UAW, according to the National Labor Relations Board, which oversaw the election. A total of roughly 3,620, or about 84%, of the 4,326 eligible VW workers voted in the election, the NLRB said. Seven ballots were challenged and three others were voided.

“In a historic victory, an overwhelming majority of Volkswagen workers in Chattanooga, Tennessee, have voted to join the UAW,” the union said in a release Friday night before official results were released by the NLRB. “While votes continue to be tallied, the outcome is clear: Volkswagen workers in Chattanooga are the first Southern autoworkers outside of the Big Three to win their union.”
The NLRB still must certify the result, but barring any unexpected issues or challenges, the company is required to bargain in good faith with the union. The talks can be direct or go first through a mediator.
The sides have five business days to file objections to the election, according to the NLRB. If no objections are filed, the result will be certified.
VW confirmed the UAW’s win in a release Friday night but offered little additional comment.
“We will await certification of the results by the NLRB,” the company said. “Volkswagen thanks its Chattanooga workers for voting in this election.”

UAW leaders and supporters are expected to use the win as a launching point for the union’s unprecedented organizing campaign of 13 automakers in the U.S. following major contract wins last year with General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis.
President Joe Biden, who has heavily supported organized labor and the UAW, congratulated the union on its “historic vote.”
“Across the country, union members have logged major wins and large raises, including auto workers, actors, port workers, Teamsters, writers, warehouse and health care workers, and more. Together, these union wins have helped raise wages and demonstrate once again that the middle-class built America and that unions are still building and expanding the middle class for all workers,” Biden said in a statement.

In this aerial view, a Volkswagen automobile assembly plant is seen on March 20, 2024 in Chattanooga, Tennessee. 
Elijah Nouvelage | Getty Images

UAW President Shawn Fain and others saw this week’s vote as the union’s best shot at organizing the VW plant following the strikes and record contracts at the Detroit automakers. Those agreements included significant wage increase, reinstatement of cost-of-living adjustments and other benefits.
The successful organizing drive comes days after six Republican governors of Southern states, including Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, released a joint statement condemning the UAW’s push to organize in their states.
“We have worked tirelessly on behalf of our constituents to bring good-paying jobs to our states. These jobs have become part of the fabric of the automotive manufacturing industry. Unionization would certainly put our states’ jobs in jeopardy — in fact, in this year already, all of the UAW automakers have announced layoffs,” the statement said.
The UAW previously failed to organize the Volkswagen plant in 2014 and 2019 as it faced greater outside political pressure and worker opposition. Workers rejected union membership by just 833 to 776 votes five years ago.

UAW President Shawn Fain greets members attending a rally in support of the labor union strike at the UAW Local 551 hall on the South Side on October 7, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.
Jim Vondruska | Getty Images

The union will now set its sights on negotiating with VW. It will also look to an anticipated organizing vote of Mercedes-Benz workers at an SUV plant in Vance, Alabama.
Workers at the facility earlier this month filed NLRB paperwork for a formal election to join the UAW. The vote for 5,200 workers will occur from May 13 through May 17, the NLRB announced Thursday.
“The first thing you need to do to win is to believe that you can win,” Fain told Mercedes-Benz workers last month. “That this job can be better. That your life can be better. And that those things are worth fighting for. That is why we stand up. That’s why you’re here today. Because deep down, you believe it’s possible.”
Fain previously vowed to move beyond the Big Three and expand to the “Big Five or Big Six” by the time its four-and-a-half-year contracts with the Detroit automakers expire in 2028.

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Lululemon is planning to shut down its Washington distribution center after opening a sprawling new warehouse outside of Los Angeles.
The athletic apparel retailer said some staff will be relocated to other warehouses, but 128 employees will be laid off.
Between 2021 and 2024, Lululemon has more than tripled its warehouse footprint to accommodate its rapid growth.

A Lululemon sign is seen at a shopping mall in San Diego, California, on Nov. 23, 2022.
Mike Blake | Reuters

Lululemon is planning to shut down its Washington distribution center and lay off 128 employees after opening a massive new warehouse outside of Los Angeles, the company confirmed Friday.
The athletic apparel retailer filed a WARN notice with the state’s Employment Security Department on Thursday, notifying it of its plans to close its distribution center in Sumner, located about 35 miles south of Seattle, and cut 128 jobs. Layoffs will begin on June 21, the WARN notice said. The facility is expected to close by the end of the year, according to a Lululemon spokesperson.

“As we continue to deliver on our growth strategy to meet the needs of our guests, we regularly evaluate our distribution network to help shape and support the future vision of our business. Following a review of our current infrastructure and the evolution of our fulfillment strategy, which includes a multi-year investment to increase overall capacity and support our growth, we have made the decision to close one of our smaller distribution centers — located in Sumner, WA,” the spokesperson said. 
“While some employees will be retained and will relocate to other facilities, including our recently opened distribution center in the greater Los Angeles area, the optimization will result in the reduction of just over 100 positions within the existing Sumner distribution center,” the person added. “We are committed to supporting our impacted employees through this transition.”
The 150,000 square foot facility has a lease that expires in July 2025, according to company securities filings. 
Lululemon first started operating a warehouse in Sumner in 2010, and it appears to be the first major distribution center the company opened in the U.S. after going public in 2007, according to securities filings. 
The closure comes after Lululemon more than tripled its warehouse footprint in the past few years to accommodate its rapid growth. 

As of Jan. 31, 2021, Lululemon leased and owned 1.12 million square feet of distribution centers across Canada and the U.S., filings show. By the end of this January, that footprint grew to nearly 4 million square feet.
The bulk of the growth comes from two new facilities Lululemon leased outside of Los Angeles and Toronto.
In 2021, it entered into a new lease for a 1.26 million square-foot facility outside of Los Angeles in Ontario, California, filings show. In 2022, it leased a 980,000 square foot warehouse outside of Toronto in Brampton, Ontario.
The Lululemon spokesperson said the California facility recently opened. The new Canadian facility is expected to be up and running in fiscal 2026, company filings show. The retailer previously expected the facility to be operational in fiscal 2024, the filings say.
Lululemon has spent the past decade dominating the athletic apparel space and becoming one of the most popular brands among teens. It has grown annual sales from $1.6 billion in fiscal 2013 to $9.6 billion in fiscal 2023.
But recently, its growth in North America — its largest region by sales — has started to stagnate. 
In March, it reported holiday earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations, but it issued disappointing guidance after seeing slow sales in the U.S.
In the three months that ended Jan. 28, sales grew 9% in the Americas, compared to 29% growth in the year-ago period.
— Additional reporting by CNBC’s Annie Palmer.

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Autonomous delivery drone startup Zipline has made 1 million deliveries to customers.
The company said its zero-emission autonomous drones have now flown more than 70 million commercial autonomous miles across four continents.
As the company continues to expand with its drone deliveries, it will bring on Panera Bread in Seattle, Memorial Hermann Health System in Houston, and Jet’s Pizza in Detroit.

A drone operator loads a Walmart package into Zipline’s P1 fixed-wing drone for delivery to a customer home in Pea Ridge, Arkansas, on March 30, 2023.
Bunee Tomlinson

Autonomous delivery drone startup Zipline said Friday that it hit its 1 millionth delivery to customers and that it’s eyeing restaurant partnerships in its next phase of growth.
The San Francisco-based startup designs, builds and operates autonomous delivery drones, working with clients that range from more than 4,700 hospitals, including the Cleveland Clinic, to major brands such as Walmart and GNC. It’s raised more than $500 million so far from investors including Sequoia Capital, a16z and Google Ventures. Zipline is also a CNBC Disruptor 50 company.

The company said its zero-emission drones have now flown more than 70 million autonomous commercial miles across four continents and delivered more than 10 million products.
The milestone 1 millionth delivery carried two bags of IV fluid from a Zipline distribution center in Ghana to a local health facility.
As the company continues to expand, it will bring on Panera Bread in Seattle, Memorial Hermann Health System in Houston, and Jet’s Pizza in Detroit.
Zipline CEO Keller Rinaudo Cliffton told CNBC that 70% of the company’s deliveries have happened in the past two years and, in the future, the goal is to do 1 million deliveries a day.
“The three areas where the incentive really makes the most sense today are health care, quick commerce and food, and those are the three main markets that we focus on,” Rinaudo Cliffton said. “Our goal is to work with really the best brands or the best institutions in each of those markets.”

The push into restaurant partnerships marks an “obvious transition” he said, due to the continuing growth in interest in instant food delivery. Zipline already delivers food from Walmart to customers.
“We need to start using vehicles that are light, fast, autonomous and zero-emission,” Rinaudo Cliffton said. “Delivering in this way is 10 times as fast, it’s less expensive … and relative to the traditional delivery apps that most restaurants will be working with, we triple the service radius, which means you actually [get] 10 times the number of customers who are reachable via instant delivery.”
Zipline deliveries for some Panera locations in Seattle are expected to begin next year, the Panera franchisee’s Chief Operating Officer Ron Bellamy told CNBC. Delivery continues to grow for its business, even in an inflationary environment, he said. Costs with Zipline are anticipated to be on par with what third-party delivery is now, he added, with the hope of that cost lowering over time. 
“I’m encouraged about it, not just even in terms of what I can do for the business, but as a consumer, I think at the end of the day, if it is economical, and it delivers a better overall experience, then the consumer will speak,” Bellamy said.

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The Federal Aviation Administration will require a minimum of 10 hours of rest between shifts, up from nine hours.
The changes come amid concerns about air traffic controller fatigue and air travel safety.
The FAA is trying to ramp up hiring of air traffic controllers but is still short-staffed.

An American Airlines Airbus A319 airplane takes off past the air traffic control tower at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, January 11, 2023
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

The head of the Federal Aviation Administration on Friday said the agency will increase the required amount of rest time for air traffic controllers in response to concerns over fatigue amid a staffing shortage.
The changes, which would take effect within 90 days, would require controllers to have at least 10 hours of rest between shifts, up from nine hours, and 12 hours of rest before an overnight shift.

“In my first few months at the helm of the FAA, I toured air traffic control facilities around the country — and heard concerns about schedules that do not always allow controllers to get enough rest,” FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker said in a statement. “With the safety of our controllers and national airspace always top of mind for FAA, I took this very seriously — and we’re taking action.”
The changes come as pressure on the FAA grows to improve air travel safety amid a spate of close calls at airports, as well as mechanical problems at some airlines and production problems at Boeing.
A shortfall of air traffic controllers, made worse by a pause in hiring during the Covid-19 pandemic, has led to forced overtime and packed schedules for staff at some facilities. The agency hired 1,500 controllers last year and plans to hire 1,800 this year. Air traffic controllers in the U.S. are required to retire at age 56.
The announcement came alongside an FAA-ordered report on air traffic controller fatigue, which recommended the new rest requirements.

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Procter & Gamble reported quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street’s estimates, but its sales disappointed.
The company also raised its fiscal 2024 forecast for earnings per share growth.
The company’s quarterly volume was flat for the second consecutive quarter.

In this photo illustration, Pantene and Head & Shoulders hair products are displayed on July 28, 2023 in San Anselmo, California. 
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Procter & Gamble on Friday reported mixed quarterly results as it struggles to bring back shoppers after two years of hiking prices across its portfolio, from Tide detergent to Charmin toilet paper.
The company’s prices were up 3% compared with the year-ago period, although CFO Andre Schulten said on a media call that P&G didn’t institute any nationwide price hikes during the quarter.

Despite its disappointing sales, the consumer giant raised its full-year outlook for earnings growth.
Shares of the company fell more than 2% in premarket trading.
Here’s what P&G reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

Earnings per share: $1.52 vs. $1.41 expected
Revenue: $20.2 billion vs. $20.41 billion expected

P&G reported fiscal third-quarter net income attributable to the company of $3.75 billion, or $1.52 per share, up from $3.4 billion, or $1.37 per share, a year earlier.
Net sales rose 1% to $20.2 billion. Organic sales, which strip out acquisitions, divestitures and foreign currency, increased 3% in the quarter.

But the company’s quarterly volume was flat for the second consecutive quarter. In October, executives said they anticipated returning to volume growth in fiscal 2024. Three quarters in, the company hasn’t yet lured back many of the customers it scared away with its price hikes over the last two years.
However, three of P&G’s divisions reported volume growth for the quarter. Its beauty segment, which includes Olay and Pantene, saw volume rise 1%, fueled by innovation in personal care. The company’s grooming business, home to its Gillette and Venus razors, reported volume growth of 2%. And fabric and home care, which includes Febreze and Swiffer, saw 1% volume growth.
But P&G’s health care and baby, feminine and family care divisions saw volume drop further. The company blamed its higher prices and a weaker cold and flu season for the declines.
Geography also played a role in the company’s lackluster sales. China, the company’s second-largest market, is still seeing softer demand for products like its pricey SK-II skincare. Schulten also said that some markets, particularly in the Middle East, have seen retailers pull back on promotions amid geopolitical tensions tied to the war in Gaza.
“The impact is visible but limited, and we expect it to lessen, obviously, hopefully as these tensions ease over time,” he said.
In the U.S., P&G’s largest market, the company’s volume grew 3%. Schulten said that the U.S. consumer isn’t trading down or changing shopping behavior.
“Consumers don’t want to take a gamble when it comes to the type of performance … they know ultimately the price for trading down,” he said.
For the full year, P&G is now expecting core net earnings per share growth of 10% to 11%, up from its prior range of 8% to 9%. The company also raised its projection for unadjusted earnings growth to a range of 1% to 2%, up from its previous forecast of down 1% to flat. P&G maintained its outlook of 2% to 4% sales growth in 2024.
P&G also now expects a $900 million benefit from favorable commodity costs, up from its previous outlook of $800 million. That’s a reversal from the last two fiscal years, when commodity costs weighed on the company, leading to price hikes. More