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    Iran is vulnerable to a Trumpian all-out economic assault

    On November 25th the Elva, a tanker flagged in São Tomé and Príncipe, clandestinely picked up 2m barrels of Iranian crude off Malaysia’s coast. Sailing from there to north-east China, the vessel’s likely destination, usually takes two weeks at most. But not this time. On December 3rd, alleging the Elva had breached sanctions, America blacklisted the ship, exposing anyone dealing with it to punishment. Six weeks on it is still stranded less than 20km from where it collected its cargo. More

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    Comcast and Harris Blitzer to build new NBA, NHL stadium in south Philadelphia

    Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment and Comcast are teaming up to build a new arena in south Philadelphia.
    They will also revitalize Market East, the original proposed location for a new arena.
    The deal will give Comcast a minority stake in the NBA’s 76ers and naming rights to the future arena.

    Joe Daniel Price | Moment | Getty Images

    Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment announced on Monday a joint venture with Comcast Spectacor to build a new arena in South Philadelphia for the NBA’s 76ers and the NHL’s Flyers.
    The deal represents a reversal from previous plans to build an arena in the Center City district of Philadelphia.

    Harris Blitzer and Comcast Spectacor have entered into a binding agreement for a 50-50 stake in the project at South Philadelphia’s Sports Complex, which is slated to open in 2031. It will include the revitalization of Market East in Center City, the original proposed location for an arena. In December, the Philadelphia 76ers received approval to build a $1.3 billion arena downtown after more than two years of contentious negotiations.
    The deal announced Monday will give Comcast a minority stake in the 76ers and naming rights to the arena. The Philadelphia-based company will also join HBSE’s bid to bring a WNBA team to the Liberty City.
    Comcast Spectacor is already majority owner of the Philadelphia Flyers.
    “From the start, we envisioned a project that would be transformative for our city and deliver the type of experience our fans deserve,” said HBSE’s Josh Harris, David Blitzer and David Adelman in a statement. “By coming together with [Comcast CEO Brian Roberts] and Comcast, this partnership ensures Philadelphia will have two developments instead of one, creating more jobs and real, sustainable economic opportunity.”
    In committing to both investments, the companies say they will create thousands of jobs and generate billions of dollars in economic activity for the region.

    “This has the potential to benefit our city for generations to come,” said Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker during a news conference Monday.
    Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of CNBC.

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    Investor Cliff Asness says bitcoin is a bubble unless uses besides speculation and criminality emerge

    Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management, believes bitcoin is in a speculative bubble after the cryptocurrency’s swift rally carried it above $100,000 following the November presidential election.
    Asness said there are three uses for crypto that he has identified: speculation, use in war-torn countries and paying cyber ransom.

    Cliff Asness.
    Chris Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management, believes bitcoin is in a speculative bubble after the cryptocurrency’s swift rally carried it above $100,000 following the November presidential election.
    “I’m on the bubble side, on net,” Asness said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Monday. “To move me off that, you really need not a price change, but a use case. That’s what could convince me to become maybe more of a crypto person when I find any use for it, aside from speculation and criminality.”

    Asness said there are three uses for crypto that he has identified: speculation, use in war-torn countries and paying cyber ransom.
    Bitcoin rallied 120% in 2024 after a huge year-end pop on the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s election. Investors hoped Trump would usher in a golden age of crypto, including supportive deregulation of the industry and a national strategic bitcoin reserve. The digital coin has dipped 3% in the new year, last trading near $90,000.
    “There’s no fundamental trend for crypto because I don’t know what the fundamentals are, but there is a price trend,” Asness said. “So I would guess most trend followers who have it in their universe are actually long.”

    Stock chart icon

    Bitcoin over the past year.

    Although Asness is bearish on crypto, he noted that he would not bet against it due to its volatility.
    “I wouldn’t short crypto only because shorting things with 100% annual volatility can be a little scary. I think we’ve all discovered what concentrated shorts can do to a portfolio,” he added.
    Asness co-founded AQR in 1998 after a stint at Goldman Sachs. He and his partners established the quant-driven firm’s investment philosophy at the University of Chicago’s Ph.D. program, focusing on value and momentum strategies.

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    Why you may be paying to help make the mattress industry more eco-friendly

    Four states now levy an extra fee of $16 to $22.50 when consumers buy a new mattress or box spring. The fees help fund mattress recycling efforts.
    Oregon launched its program Jan. 1. California and Connecticut raised their fees in 2025.
    Other states are considering the programs, an example of “extended producer responsibility” laws to boost the circular economy.

    Workers dismantling a mattress.
    Thomas Lohnes | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Consumers in a handful of states are paying to help make the mattress industry more eco-friendly — and more states may follow suit?
    Four states — California, Connecticut, Oregon and Rhode Island — now levy a flat fee on any mattress or box spring residents purchase online or in a brick-and-mortar shop.

    The retail fees, which range from $16 to about $23, help finance state recycling programs that divert used mattresses from landfills — part of a growing policy initiative to boost the circular economy across common household items from plastic packaging to paper products and electronics.
    More from Personal Finance:How to buy renewable energy from your electric utilityHow climate change may impact your walletPeople are moving and building in Miami despite climate risk
    Americans discard about 15 million to 20 million mattresses each year — an average of 50,000 a day, according to the Mattress Recycling Council, a nonprofit formed by the bedding industry to operate state recycling programs.
    Yet, more than 75% of a mattress is recyclable, according to MRC: its wood, steel, foams and fibers can be stripped, sold and reused.

    Oregon implemented a recycling fee on Jan. 1. State residents who buy a new mattress or box spring pay an extra $22.50 per unit, reflected as a “stewardship assessment” on consumers’ receipts.

    California and Connecticut raised their retail fees to $16 per unit at the beginning of 2025, up from $10.50 and $11.75, respectively. Rhode Island raised its per-unit fee to $20.50 last year.
    The industry is also working with lawmakers in Massachusetts, Maryland, New York and Virginia to establish similar programs, according to MRC spokesperson Amanda Wall.

    Recycling options are few but expanding

    Douglas Sacha | Moment | Getty Images

    There are currently few options for Americans who want to recycle a used mattress or box spring.
    A directory compiled by the Mattress Recycling Council lists just 58 companies nationwide that recycle such products. Those in states that haven’t enacted recycling laws generally charge fees to consumers for drop-off and home pickup. (I recently paid $95 for such a service in New York City, for example.)
    Oregon officials say their program will make it easy for consumers to recycle unwanted mattresses and reduce illegal dumping.
    It aims to establish “new convenient locations in every county for residents to drop off their mattresses” and also create recycling sector jobs, according to the state’s Department of Environmental Quality website.

    The state recycling efforts are examples of “extended producer responsibility” laws gaining traction in the U.S.
    “With EPR, producers of products or packages become responsible for managing them when they become waste,” according to Reid Lifset, a resident fellow in industrial ecology at Yale University and editor of the Journal of Industrial Ecology. EPR programs provide a new source of funding to make the recycling system sustainable, Lifset said.
    In the case of state mattress programs, retailers pass along the consumer fees to the Mattress Recycling Council to fund each state’s respective program, Wall said.
    In Oregon, for example, more than half (about $12) of the $22.50 retail fee will fund program operational costs in 2025, with the remainder funding things like start-up costs, administration, and public education and advertising.
    There are more than 300 mattress collection sites in states with recycling programs, according to MRC. The sites accept discarded mattresses at no cost. (They may charge for home pickup, however.)

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    Moderna stock plunges 18% after company lowers 2025 sales forecast by $1 billion

    Moderna lowered its 2025 sales guidance by roughly $1 billion, as it continues to cut costs. 
    The biotech company now expects 2025 revenue to come in between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, most of which will come in the second half of the year.
    The announcement comes as Moderna charts a path forward after the rapid decline in demand for its Covid vaccine.

    The Moderna Inc. headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, US, on Tuesday, March 26, 2024. 
    Adam Glanzman | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Moderna on Monday lowered its 2025 sales guidance by roughly $1 billion due to a few potential headwinds later this year, as the biotech company continues to cut costs and expand its portfolio.
    Moderna now expects 2025 revenue to come in between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, most of which will come in the second half of the year. The majority of those sales will come from Moderna’s Covid shot and newly launched vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus, according to a release.

    The guidance is down from a prior forecast range of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion issued in September. At the time, the company said it expects to break even on an operating cash basis in 2028 — pushed back from 2026 — with $6 billion in revenue.
    Shares of Moderna plunged 18% in premarket trading Monday.
    “As we head into 2025, there are a handful of uncertainties that we are planning for,” Moderna CFO Jamey Mock told CNBC. “As of this time period, we are planning for them to be headwinds. They could be tailwinds, but right now we’re seeing them as headwinds.” 
    Mock pointed to four factors that could weigh on sales, including increased competition in the Covid market. He said Moderna’s share of the U.S. retail market for Covid shots fell to 40% at the end of 2024 from 48% in 2023, and the company is preparing for another decline this year. 
    He noted Sanofi will co-commercialize Novavax’s Covid vaccine worldwide under a new agreement, which could potentially make that shot more competitive. 

    Mock said the second factor is falling vaccination rates, which were down around 7% overall in the U.S. retail market in fall 2024 compared to the same time in 2023. The last two factors are timing around manufacturing contracts with a handful of countries, and uncertainty around what advisors to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will recommend for RSV revaccination. 
    But Mock noted that the company expects to reduce 2025 cash cost expenses by $1 billion, with plans for additional 2026 cost reductions of $500 million. 
    “We are taking the right amount of cost to preserve our cash,” Mock said. “We’re excited to invest and diversify our portfolio.” 
    The announcement comes as Moderna charts a path forward after the rapid decline in demand for its Covid vaccine, its only commercially available product until its RSV shot entered the market last year. It also comes ahead of Moderna’s presentation at the annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, one of the largest gatherings of health-care executives in the world and a hotbed for deals activity for the industry. 
    Revenue from Moderna’s two shots met its forecast for 2024, coming in at around $3 billion to $3.1 billion. In November, the company said its updated Covid shot benefitted from gaining approval in the U.S. three weeks earlier than the previous iteration of the shot did in 2023. 
    Still, those sales represent a steep drop off from the $6.7 billion that Moderna’s Covid shot booked in 2023 and the $18 billion it generated in 2022, as fewer people rolled up their sleeves for updated jabs. 
    Moderna plans to beef up its portfolio with 10 new product approvals over the next three years, including a combination shot targeting Covid and the flu and a “next-generation” Covid shot. The company on Monday said it could see three approvals in 2025 alone. 
    The company is betting on a pipeline built around its messenger RNA platform, which is the technology used in its Covid vaccine and RSV shot. More

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    Retailers hike holiday guidance, but Abercrombie’s growth is slowing

    Lululemon raised its fourth quarter earnings and revenue guidance after striking a cautious tone in the lead up to the holiday shopping season.
    Abercrombie & Fitch also raised its guidance but only slightly, sending shares lower.
    Early reads have shown the holiday shopping season may have been better than expected, but was far from the blowout seen in previous years.

    A shopping bag from Abercrombie & Fitch (L), and the logo of Lululemon (R).

    ORLANDO, Fla. — Lululemon and Abercrombie & Fitch raised their fourth quarter outlooks on Monday after seeing a strong response from shoppers during the all-important holiday season. 
    Lululemon’s new outlook went over well with investors, leading shares to rise about 3% in premarket trading. But Abercrombie shares dropped about 8% as investors wonder if its rapid growth is coming to an end.

    Lululemon now expects sales to grow between 11% and 12% to between $3.56 billion and $3.58 billion, up from a previous range of $3.48 billion and $3.51 billion. 
    Excluding an additional fiscal week the company will have in the fourth quarter of 2024, Lululemon expects sales growth of between 6% and 7%. 
    The company also hiked its profit outlook. Lululemon is now forecasting fourth-quarter earnings per share to be between $5.81 and $5.85, compared to previous guidance of between $5.56 and $5.64. It expects gross margins to grow by 0.3 percentage points after previously forecasting they would decline between 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points. 
    “During the holiday season, our guests responded well to our product offering, enabling us to increase our fourth quarter guidance,” finance chief Meghan Frank said in a statement. 
    Meanwhile, Abercrombie also expects its holiday quarter to be slightly better than anticipated. The apparel company nudged up its net sales growth outlook to a range of between 7% and 8%, compared to previous guidance of between 5% and 7%. 

    Abercrombie now expects full-year sales to grow 15%. It previously expected sales to rise between 14% and 15% for the period.
    The outlook is a far cry from the blockbuster numbers that Abercrombie put out last year, when holiday sales jumped by a staggering 21% compared to the year-ago period. 
    Investors bullish on Abercrombie would say that it makes sense to see the company’s growth start to slow down as it matures and laps tougher comparisons from the year-ago period, but following about two years of explosive stock growth, some could be turning bearish. 
    Still, Abercrombie’s full year-sales guidance is close to what it put out last year, when revenue grew by 16%. 
    In a news release, Abercrombie CEO Fran Horowitz signaled that moving forward, the company will be more focused on boosting profits than sales as it looks to “drive long-term shareholder value.” 
    “Following an expected two years of double-digit top and bottom-line growth, I am as confident as ever in the power of our brands and operating model as we move forward, supported by the outstanding capabilities we’ve built,” said Horowitz. “In 2025, we will look to continue sustainable, profitable growth through the execution of our playbooks to win and retain customers around the world. Our goal is to leverage our healthy margin structure and balance sheet to grow operating income dollars and earnings per share at rates faster than sales.” 
    The retailers released their guidance ahead of the annual ICR conference in Orlando when some of the most prominent U.S. retailers are expected to announce early holiday results and meet with investors and analysts about their performance. The conference brings together Wall Street’s biggest banks, law firms, private equity firms and investors and is known to set the tone for consumer deal making and retailer performance at the start of the year. 
    Macy’s, which is expected to present at the conference, also released early results but didn’t have good news to share like some of its competitors. The department store is now expecting sales to be at, or slightly below, its previously issued range of between $7.8 billion to $8.0 billion. Shares fell more than 3% in premarket trading.
    Urban Outfitters also released early holiday results and said net sales for the two months ended Dec. 31 grew 10% compared to the year-ago period. Comparable retail segment sales rose 6%, driven by strong online sales.
    Urban’s namesake banner saw comparable sales fall 4% as the chain continued to underperform Anthropologie and Free People, where comparable sales grew 10% and 9%, respectively.
    Meanwhile, sales soared 55% at Urban’s rental service Nuuly, driven by a 53% increase in average active subscribers.
    Shares moved slightly higher in premarket trading.
    Overall, the holiday shopping season wasn’t expected to produce the blowout numbers that became common in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The National Retail Federation said it was expecting sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5%. When inflation is taken into account, real growth was expected to be minimal.
    Still, some early reads have signaled that the holiday season may be a bit better than expected. 
    Retail sales for the holiday season in the U.S., excluding automotive sales, rose 3.8% year over year between Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online sales across payment types. More

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    Why global bond markets are convulsing

    Almost everywhere, government-bond yields are rising fast. Those on ten-year American Treasury bonds are almost 5%. German bunds now offer 2.6%, up from close to 2% in December. Japanese bond yields are climbing. Things are particularly extreme in Britain, where gilt yields recently reached almost 5%, their highest since 2008 (see chart 1). Rising yields are bad news for governments, which must pay more to service debts. They are also painful for all sorts of other borrowers, including many mortgage-holders, whose bills ultimately depend on governments’ borrowing costs. More

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    This ETF provider launches a new way to play Tesla

    An exchange-traded fund provider is helping investors make more bets on Wall Street’s most profitable momentum trades.
    GraniteShares, which debuted its first installment of single-stock ETFs in 2022, now manages 20 of them. It includes the GraniteShares YieldBoost TSLA ETF (TSYY), which launched last month. The fund gives investors exposure to Tesla.

    “This is about more and more people taking charge of their own finances,” GraniteShares CEO William Rhind told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “They want to be able to actively manage that and maybe try and outperform… That’s where we see things like leverage, single stocks really playing.”
    He calls demand “a worldwide phenomenon” because it’s not just an opportunity for U.S. investors.
    “We have investors all around the world that are looking to the U.S. ETF market first because that’s the biggest source of liquidity,” added Rhind. “They’re looking to the names that they know and love – the Teslas of the world [and] the Nvidias of the world. They’re only available here in the U.S., and that’s why people come here to trade them.”
    But the firm acknowledges the strategy isn’t suited for everyone.
    GraniteShares includes a disclosure in bold on its website: “An investment in these ETFs involve significant risks.”
    As of Friday’s close, Tesla stock is nearly $100, or about 19%, off its all-time high – hit on Dec. 18.

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