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    Trump Is Set to Unveil Expansive Global Tariffs

    President Trump is set to unveil his most expansive tariffs to date on Wednesday afternoon, when he will detail potentially punishing levies on countries around the globe, including America’s largest trading partners.Mr. Trump has promised for months to impose what he calls “reciprocal” tariffs, which the president says will correct years of “unfair” trade in which other countries have been “ripping off” America.“We helped everybody, and they don’t help us,” Mr. Trump said on Monday.Exactly how he plans to structure the new tariffs is not yet clear. The White House press secretary said Tuesday afternoon that Mr. Trump had decided on a course of action and that the new tariffs would go into effect immediately, but that he and his trade advisers were continuing to hash out details.The president has talked about basing a new tariff rate for countries on the tariffs they place on American products, as well as other trading practices that the Trump team deems unfair.Mr. Trump has also considered a flat 20 percent tariff on all trading partners. Such a levy would be aimed more at generating revenue to offset the tax cuts that he hopes to push through Congress.Either approach would be a significant escalation toward a trade war that Mr. Trump seems eager to unleash. Governments across the world have been preparing to hit back if the president raises tariffs, raising the potential for a destabilizing economic battle that drives up costs as Mr. Trump tries to force supply chains back to the United States.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    FirstFT: Andreessen Horowitz could join bid to buy out TikTok’s Chinese owners

    This article is an on-site version of our FirstFT newsletter. Subscribers can sign up to our Asia, Europe/Africa or Americas edition to get the newsletter delivered every weekday morning. Explore all of our newsletters hereGood morning and welcome back to FirstFT Asia. In today’s newsletter: Andreessen Horowitz could join US TikTok bidChina’s latest military exercises around TaiwanIndonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund vows transparencyUS venture capital giant Andreessen Horowitz is in talks to invest in social media platform TikTok as part of an effort led by Donald Trump to wrest control of the popular video app from its Chinese owners.What we know: The group, whose co-founder Marc Andreessen is a vocal supporter of the US president, is in talks to add new outside investment that will buy out TikTok’s Chinese investors. The talks come as part of a bid led by Oracle and other American investors to carve it out of its parent company ByteDance. Andreessen Horowitz was approached as TikTok’s advisers and the White House sought to add financial firepower to ongoing discussions. The firm was strongly considering making an investment, said three people familiar with the discussions. Looming deadline: The Oracle-led bid recently emerged as the frontrunner ahead of a deadline on April 5, when a federal law would ban the app in the US unless its Beijing-based owner sells the American arm to non-Chinese entities, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. Trump connections: Marc Andreessen’s close ties to the Trump administration include helping recruit staff for Elon Musk’s US government cost-cutting unit, while former Andreessen Horowitz general partner Sriram Krishnan is serving as a White House adviser for artificial intelligence. Here’s the full story — plus more tech news below:And here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs: The US president could trigger a $1.4tn trade war today when he plans to announce sweeping new tariffs on imported goods. Here’s how the worse-case scenario could unfold.Economic data: March inflation figures are due from Singapore, South Korea and Australia. Benjamin Netanyahu: The Israeli prime minister will visit Hungary, defying an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes in Gaza.Five more top stories1. China has begun large-scale military and coastguard exercises around Taiwan, the latest round in Beijing’s escalating campaign to assert its claims of sovereignty over the island nation. Two people briefed on the situation said the Shandong, a Chinese aircraft carrier, was approaching waters 24 nautical miles off Taiwan’s coast yesterday, the closest it has ever been to the Taiwanese mainland. Here’s how Taipei responded.2. Indonesia will run its colossal new sovereign wealth fund “like a public company”, its chief investment officer said as he acknowledged investor concerns about the governance of a vehicle with $900bn in assets. Danantara, which became one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds overnight when it launched last month, is set to invest billions of dollars into priority sectors identified by President Prabowo Subianto.3. The US labour watchdog froze two cases against Apple days after Trump nominated an attorney who represents the tech group to be the agency’s top legal official. The National Labor Relations Board filed multiple complaints against the iPhone maker last year alleging it intervened against employee attempts to organise, but abruptly pulled back from two of the cases late last week, according to documents seen by the FT.4. The EU has a “strong plan to retaliate” against US tariffs expected today, the president of the European Commission has said. Ursula von der Leyen told the European parliament yesterday that the bloc was prepared to hit services exports including those from Big Tech companies if Trump imposed “reciprocal tariffs” on all imports into the US.5. Vehicle sales at China’s BYD soared 58 per cent in the first quarter in a stark contrast to an expected fall in demand for Tesla’s electric cars, as European consumers shun Elon Musk’s brand. Analysts warned figures set to be released today for Tesla’s first-quarter sales were likely to show a drop of more than 10 per cent. News in-depth© Alex Wheeler/FT montage/Getty ImagesKlarna has brought “pay in four” loans to everything from food to fashion. Now it has a $15bn New York IPO in its sights. Can the Swedish fintech finally silence the “buy now, pay later” doubters?We’re also reading . . . Chart of the dayInvestors are pouring cash into gold funds at the fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic, amid mounting concerns over the economic impact of Trump’s trade war.Take a break from the news . . . HTSI goes inside the Aman Nai Lert Bangkok, a new hotel in the heart of the Thai capital that pays homage to the man who shaped the modern city.The swimming pool at Aman Nai Lert Bangkok, Thailand More

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    Trump’s tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices, but a key question remains: By how much?

    The U.S. government is set to increase tariff rates on several categories of imported products. Some economists tracking these trade proposals say the higher tariff rates could lead to higher consumer prices.
    One model constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston suggests that in an “extreme” scenario, heightened taxes on U.S. imports could result in a 1.4 percentage point to 2.2 percentage point increase to core inflation. This scenario assumes 60% tariff rates on Chinese imports and 10% tariff rates on imports from all other countries.

    The researchers note that many other tariff proposals have surfaced since they published their findings in February 2025. 
    Price increases could come across many categories, including new housing and automobiles, alongside consumer services such as nursing, public transportation and finance. 
    “People might think, ‘Oh, tariffs can only affect the goods that I buy. It can’t affect the services,'” said Hillary Stein, an economist at the Boston Fed. “Those hospitals are buying inputs that might be, for example, … medical equipment that comes from abroad.” 
    White House economists say tariffs will not meaningfully contribute to inflation. In a statement to CNBC, Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, said that “as the world’s largest source of consumer demand, the U.S. holds all the leverage, which means foreign suppliers will have to eat the economic burden or ‘incidence’ of the tariffs.” 
    Assessing the impact of the administration’s full economic agenda has been a challenge for central bank leaders. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at the meeting in March. 

    The Fed targets its overnight borrowing rate at between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the effective federal funds rate at 4.33% on March 31, according to the New York Fed. The core personal consumption expenditures price index inflation rate rose to 2.8% in February, according to the Commerce Department. Forecasts of U.S. gross domestic product suggest that the economy will continue to grow at a 1.7% rate in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than what was forecast in January.  
    Consumers in the U.S. and businesses around the world are bracing for impact.  “There is a reason why companies went outside of the U.S.,” said Gregor Hirt, chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors. “Most of the time it was because it was cheaper and more productive.” 
    Watch the video above to learn how much inflation tariffs may cause. More

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    Investors flock to gold funds as fears over Trump tariffs mount

    Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldInvestors are pouring cash into gold funds at the fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic, amid mounting concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff war.Gold reached a record $3,148.88 a troy ounce on Tuesday, as part of a broader flight to haven assets such as US Treasuries and cash. It later fell back to $3,114, up more than 17 per cent this year — including its strongest quarterly performance since 1986. Investors are bracing themselves for Trump’s expansive new tariffs, which are due to be announced on Wednesday, a day he has dubbed “liberation day”. Many economists fear the move will hit global growth, triggering a search for safe assets. “Uncertainty is one of the main factors that has led to a renewed interest in gold,” said Krishan Gopaul, senior analyst at the World Gold Council, an industry body. “There is a general risk-off sentiment in the market at the moment.”Amid mounting fears of a global trade war, investors have poured more than $19.2bn into gold-backed exchange traded funds during the first quarter of this year — the biggest inflows in dollar terms since the pandemic, according to calculations from Standard Chartered.The amount of cash in investors’ portfolios — viewed as a gauge of caution — jumped by the largest monthly amount in five years, according to a recent fund manager survey carried out by Bank of America.US Treasuries have also made gains in the run-up to the tariff announcement, as investors seek to protect themselves against further volatility and hedge against risks to the American economy. Ten-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, fell as low as 4.13 per cent on Tuesday — not far above their lowest level of the year. Yields on German Bunds, viewed as the haven Eurozone asset, were sent sharply higher last month as the country planned a huge spending drive, but fell back below 2.7 per cent this week for the first time since early March. “With a homegrown US slowdown potentially unfolding behind the tariff headlines, government bonds look [like] attractive risk-reducers at this point,” said Sunil Krishnan, head of multi-asset at Aviva Investors. “Gold is hard to add to, given the force of the move.”Central bank buying has been the main driver of gold purchases in recent years, but the recent surge in gold ETF inflows highlights how fears over the economy and stock markets have drawn in a broader range of investors as part of a hunt for haven assets.“The resurgence in ETFs has been the most notable shift in gold dynamics in recent weeks,” said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered. Expectations of lower yields on other assets, combined with concerns that tariffs could hit inflation and growth, have helped fuel the recent flows, she said.Bullion’s sharp rally in recent months has prompted several banks to increase their gold price forecasts, including Macquarie, which now expects it to touch $3,500 this year. Tariff concerns have also driven a huge surge in physical gold bars being flown into New York, where stockpiles on Comex have reached record levels, although that flow has recently started to slow down.On Wall Street, defensive stocks seen as less exposed to economic growth have prospered. Healthcare stocks such as UnitedHealth and HCA Healthcare are up more than 10 per cent over the past month, while the broader S&P 500 index is down by about 5 per cent.“Very few assets are showing up as attractive on our screens at the moment,” said Pete Drewienkiewicz, chief investment officer for global assets at consultancy Redington. “So I don’t think it is surprising to see people moving a bit more defensive after such a good strong run [for markets].” More

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    Trump’s tariff gambit will raise the stakes for an economy already looking fragile

    President Donald Trump is set Wednesday to begin the biggest gamble of his nascent second term, wagering that broad-based tariffs on imports will jumpstart a new era for the U.S. economy.
    The big problem right now is no one outside the administration knows quite how those goals will be achieved, and what will be the price to pay.
    On their surface, tariffs are a tax on imports and, theoretically, are inflationary. In practice, though, it doesn’t always work that way.
    The U.S. economy already is showing signs of a stagflationary impulse where growth is slowing and inflation is proving stickier than expected.

    U.S. President Donald Trump speaks alongside entertainer Kid Rock before signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House on March 31, 2025 in Washington, DC. 
    Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

    President Donald Trump is set Wednesday to begin the biggest gamble of his nascent second term, wagering that broad-based tariffs on imports will jumpstart a new era for the U.S. economy.
    The stakes couldn’t be higher.

    As the president prepares his “liberation day” announcement, household sentiment is at multi-year lows. Consumers worry that the duties will spark another round of painful inflation, and investors are fretting that higher prices will mean lower profits and a tougher slog for the battered stock market.
    What Trump is promising is a new economy not dependent on deficit spending, where Canada, Mexico, China and Europe no longer take advantage of the U.S. consumer’s desire for ever-cheaper products.
    The big problem right now is no one outside the administration knows quite how those goals will be achieved, and what will be the price to pay.
    “People always want everything to be done immediately and have to know exactly what’s going on,” said Joseph LaVorgna, who served as a senior economic advisor during Trump’s first term in office. “Negotiations themselves don’t work that way. Good things take time.”
    For his part, LaVorgna, who is now chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, is optimistic Trump can pull it off, but understands why markets are rattled by the uncertainty of it all.

    “This is a negotiation, and it needs to be judged in the fullness of time,” he said. “Eventually we’re going to get some details and some clarity, and to me, everything will fit together. But right now, we’re at that point where it’s just too soon to know exactly what the implementation is likely to look like.”
    Here’s what we do know: The White House intends to implement “reciprocal” tariffs against its trading partners. In other words, the U.S. is going to match what other countries charge to import American goods into their countries. Most recently, a figure of 20% blanket tariffs has been bandied around, though LaVorgna said he expects the number to be around 10%, but something like 60% for China.
    What is likely to emerge, though, will be far more nuanced as Trump seeks to reduce a record $131.4 billion U.S. trade deficit. Trump professes his ability to make deals, and the saber-rattling of draconian levies on other countries is all part of the strategy to get the best arrangement possible where more goods are manufactured domestically, boosting American jobs and providing a fairer landscape for trade.
    The consequences, though, could be rough in the near term.

    Potential inflation impact

    On their surface, tariffs are a tax on imports and, theoretically, are inflationary. In practice, though, it doesn’t always work that way.
    During his first term, Trump imposed heavy tariffs with nary a sign of longer-term inflation outside of isolated price increases. That’s how Federal Reserve economists generally view tariffs — a one-time “transitory” blip but rarely a generator of fundamental inflation.
    This time, though, could be different as Trump attempts something on a scale not seen since the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariffs in 1930 that kicked off a global trade war and would be the worst-case scenario of the president’s ambitions.
    “This could be a major rewiring of the domestic economy and of the global economy, a la Thatcher, a la Reagan, where you get a more enabled private sector, streamlined government, a fair trading system,” Mohamed El-Erian, the Allianz chief economic advisor, said Tuesday on CNBC. “Alternatively, if we get tit-for-tat tariffs, we slip into stagflation, and that stagflation becomes well anchored, and that becomes problematic.”

    The U.S. economy already is showing signs of a stagflationary impulse, perhaps not along the lines of the 1970s and early ’80s but nevertheless one where growth is slowing and inflation is proving stickier than expected.
    Goldman Sachs has lowered its projection for economic growth this year to barely positive. The firm is citing the “the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence” and second-order impacts of tariffs as administration officials are willing to trade lower growth in the near term for their longer-term trade goals.
    Federal Reserve officials last month indicated an expectation of 1.7% gross domestic product growth this year; using the same metric, Goldman projects GDP to rise at just a 1% rate.
    In addition, Goldman raised its recession risk to 35% this year, though it sees growth holding positive in the most-likely scenario.

    Broader economic questions

    However, Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, thinks the recession risk is even higher at 40%, and not just because of tariff impacts.
    “We were already on the pessimistic side of the spectrum,” he said. “A lot of that is coming from the fact that we didn’t think the consumer was strong enough heading into the year, and we see growth slowing because of the tariffs.”
    Tilley also sees the labor market weakening as companies hold off on hiring as well as other decisions such as capital expenditure-type investments in their businesses.
    That view on business hesitation was backed up Tuesday in an Institute for Supply Management survey in which respondents cited the uncertain climate as an obstacle to growth.
    “Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs,” said a manager in the transportation equipment industry. “There is no clear direction from the administration on how they will be implemented, so it’s harder to project how they will affect business.”
    While Tilley thinks the concern over tariffs causing long-term inflation is misplaced — Smoot-Hawley, for instance, actually ended up being deflationary — he does see them as a danger to an already-fragile consumer and economy as they could tend to weaken activity further.
    “We think of the tariffs as just being such a weight on growth. It would drive up prices in the initial couple [inflation] readings, but it would create so much economic weakness that they would end up being net deflationary,” he said. “They’re a tax hike, they’re contractionary, they’re going to weigh on the economy.”
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    Trump Says His Tariffs Will Take Effect Wednesday

    President Trump has settled on a final plan for sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, which are expected to take effect on Wednesday after he announces the details at an afternoon Rose Garden ceremony.The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed the timeline in a briefing with reporters on Tuesday, adding that Mr. Trump had been huddling with his trade team to hash out the finer points of an approach meant to end “decades of unfair trade practices.”When pressed on whether the administration was worried the tariffs could prove to be the wrong approach, Ms. Leavitt struck a confident note: “They’re not going to be wrong,” she said. “It is going to work.”The administration has been weighing several different tariff strategies in recent weeks. One option examined by the White House is a 20 percent flat tariff on all imports, which advisers have said could help raise more than $6 trillion in revenue for the U.S. government.But advisers have also discussed the idea of assigning different tariff levels to countries depending on the trade barriers those countries impose against American products. They have also said that some nations might avoid tariffs entirely by striking trade deals with the United States.Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, Mr. Trump said the United States would be “very nice, relatively speaking,” in imposing tariffs on a vast number of countries — including U.S. allies — that he believes are unfairly inhibiting the flow of American exports.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More