Economy

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Bank of England is reluctantly pressing on with work to create a form of digital money accessible to the general public, as commercial banks risk failing to keep up with less-regulated tech firms, Governor Andrew Bailey said on Saturday.Bailey’s remarks build on his longstanding concerns that he does not want to see day-to-day payments or banking-type services shift to cryptocurrencies or services from tech companies that are less safe or private than banks.The BoE and Britain’s finance ministry have said they will not make a final decision before 2025 at the earliest whether to go ahead with a state-backed digital pound or central bank digital currency (CBDC), following a consultation which drew widespread concerns about privacy.”That (CBDC) is not my preferred option, but it’s one we can’t rule out,” Bailey said at the Group of Thirty in Washington, a forum for central banks and commercial bankers.While Britain’s electronic payment infrastructure already provides fast transfers with no upfront costs for the public, future forms of digital currency could offer more options in areas such as automatic payments.”Commercial bank money, i.e. the banking system, is the best home for that innovation,” Bailey said.”But … are they the only game in town? At the Bank of England we’re continuing to prepare for a retail CBDC, because to be frank we are not yet seeing enough evidence that innovation will happen in the commercial banking system.”Commercial banks might be avoiding innovation because they made too much profit from the current system, Bailey said.”To be particularly frank about this, if the rents that are being earned from the ‘rails’ (payment systems) act to inhibit innovation and act to inhibit competition, that is why … we need a retail CBDC on the table,” Bailey said. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) President Jin Liqun on Saturday criticized advanced economies for creating trade barriers including for renewable energy goods, saying there was “no longer free trade” in the global economy.The United States last month locked in steep tariff hikes on Chinese imports, including a 100% duty on electric vehicles, to strengthen protections for strategic domestic industries from China’s state-driven excess production capacity.The European Union and Canada also have announced new import tariffs on Chinese EVs, the latter matching the 100% U.S. duties.Jin, who heads the China-led development bank, said trade spats between advanced and emerging economies have increased partly because manufacturers in the latter have boosted their competitiveness.Emerging economies that build up capacity for trade and become competitive could be accused for over-capacity “no matter how much benefit you can bring to your trade partners,” he said.”It’s no longer free trade, because you cannot rely on the WTO rules,” Jin told the Group of Thirty (G30) International Banking Seminar.”What worries us even more is the barriers to trade in low carbon and renewable energy products, which are rising even more faster, just when we need more of these green products to save the planet,” he said.AIIB was set up by President Xi Jinping in 2016 as a Chinese alternative to the World Bank and other Western-led multilateral lenders.”I’m dismayed to see this spat over trade. Free trade has brought huge benefits to so many countries since the end of second World War,” he said.Jin also said the series of stimulus measures China’s government has recently announced were different from those deployed during 2008-2009 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, in that they were now “more focused.”China had more scope to expand fiscal stimulus, and so has been more proactive in expanding spending and issuing special bonds to help local governments and businesses, he said. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The European Central Bank should keep its options open regarding future interest rate moves, Dutch central bank chief and ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said on Saturday, pushing back against market bets that a December cut is a done deal.Last week the ECB cut interest rates for the third time this year and four sources close to the decision told Reuters a fourth cut was likely in December unless data turned around in the coming weeks.However, on Thursday three ECB officials tried to cool speculation about rate cuts, and Knot added his voice to theirs at a meeting of the Group of Thirty – a gathering of central bankers, commercial banks and academics – in Washington on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings. “It is important that we keep all options open. Retaining full optionality would act as a hedge against the materialization of risks in either direction to the growth and inflation outlook,” Knot said. “We believe that our meeting-by-meeting and data dependent approach has served us well,” he added.Asked about the market’s expectations for rate cuts, Knot said they had increased “quite dramatically” following weak purchasing managers’ index and consumption data.”We will have to see whether that was a little bit over-enthusiastic or not. We will only know once we do our own calculations again in December,” he said.Knot likened the current economic situation in the euro zone to the weather in Amsterdam at this time of year: “It’s not as bad as some people would have you believe, but it’s definitely not great,” he said.Incoming data since September had increased the ECB’s confidence that inflation would return to its 2% target and increased the risk of disappointing growth in the short and medium term, but did not point to a recession, Knot said.But the euro zone still needed to see services price inflation cool further and a “significant easing” in wage growth to ensure that inflation returned durably to target, he added.”On the one hand, policy restriction may be reduced more quickly if incoming data indicates sustained acceleration in the speed of disinflation or a material shortfall in the economic recovery,” Knot said. “On the other hand, policy restriction may be taken away more slowly, should upside risks to inflation materialize or incoming data share the opposite picture regarding growth and inflation.” More

“We shouldn’t be too hasty,” Nagel said in a panel discussion in Washington. “We should do what is necessary based on new data.”He argued that the U.S. election, new inflation data, fresh economic projections and a slew of other indicators would guide the ECB’s decision in December.Markets have fully priced a 25 basis point rate cut for December, the fourth move this year, but investors also see a 40% chance of a bigger, 50 basis point move, partly in response to move dovish comments this week. More

The person told Reuters that Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio, son of late billionaire Leonardo Del Vecchio, who founded Ray Ban-owner Luxottica, is among those targeted by the probe.Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio, whom Reuters could not immediately reach for comment, allegedly tasked the intelligence agency with gathering information as Del Vecchio’s heirs are in disagreement over the inheritance, the person said. The tycoon died in 2022. Milan prosecutors allege the business intelligence agency tapped into three key databases: one gathering alerts over suspicious financial activities; one used by the national tax agency with citizens’ bank transactions, utility bills, income statements; and the police investigations’ database, the person said.Italy’s national anti-mafia prosecutor Giovanni Melillo told reporters on Saturday the probe “rang alarm bells” because it shed light on the “gigantic market for confidential information” which has acquired “a business-like dimension”, ANSA news agency reported.The probe follows another recent investigation into a large-scale data breach at Italy’s top bank Intesa Sanpaolo (OTC:ISNPY). More

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Tariff policies are expected to be a major determinant for retail stock performance, with the candidates offering divergent approaches. Former President Trump has proposed imposing tariffs of 10-20% on most imports, with specific levies on Chinese imports that could reach as high as 60%. This rhetoric has already stirred concerns across consumer companies, especially those heavily reliant on imports from China. The ability of companies to absorb or pass on these increased costs varies, making the election outcome a pivotal factor for many retail stocks.In contrast, Kamala Harris is expected to maintain policies more aligned with the Biden administration, which has already increased tariffs on select products such as steel and aluminum. The exact stance on broader tariffs remains unclear but is likely to offer more continuity than disruption. Wells Fargo analysts warn that any escalation in tariffs could further strain geopolitical relationships, particularly with China, exacerbating uncertainties for U.S. companies that depend on Chinese imports. Key retailers such as Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) and Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) are noted as being particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on fixed pricing and limited ability to adjust for rising import costs.Taxes also play a crucial role in shaping the future landscape for both corporate profits and consumer spending. Trump has pledged to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 20%, with an even lower 15% rate for domestic manufacturers. Harris, on the other hand, has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, a move that would unwind much of the tax relief introduced under the Trump administration’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Wells Fargo analysts note that while higher taxes under Harris may pose challenges for large corporations, small businesses could benefit from her plan to expand the small business tax deduction from $5,000 to $50,000. This could potentially create competitive shifts in sectors like retail and food service.On the individual tax front, both candidates offer proposals that could impact consumer spending, particularly among lower-income households. Harris has suggested expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit and restoring elements of the American Rescue Plan’s Child Tax Credit expansion. Meanwhile, Trump has floated a range of ideas, including the removal of taxes on tips, overtime pay, and social security. Wells Fargo suggests that low-income consumers, who often have lower savings rates, would likely benefit from these proposals, driving increased spending in sectors like retail and food services. Stocks such as Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Dollar General (NYSE:DG), which cater to lower-income consumers, could see positive outcomes if stimulus measures are enacted.Going forward, corporate tax changes could have a direct impact on stock earnings. For example, under Harris’ proposed tax increase, earnings estimates for some companies could decline by as much as 10%, while Trump’s lower corporate tax rate would provide a smaller, yet positive, boost to earnings. The outcome of the election will not only affect taxes and tariffs but also influence broader policies on housing, labor, and energy, all of which could further sway consumer spending and corporate profitability. More

Citi’s simulation specifically examines the effect of a 10 percentage point increase in tariffs on imports from several of the US’s key trading partners, including Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, South Korea, the UK, and the European Union. This collective group represents approximately 77% of total US imports. Although the hypothetical tariff increase aims to reduce trade imbalances, Citi’s findings suggest that the broader economic consequences are far more complex, affecting global trade flows, inflation, and long-term output levels.The immediate effect within the United States is a sharp, temporary economic slowdown. Citi projects that US output would dip by 0.7% below the baseline within six to nine months following the tariff hike.Inflation would spike, with core consumer prices increasing by 0.6%, primarily due to higher import costs. However, the Federal Reserve is expected to quickly pivot its focus to supporting growth as inflation pressures fade, allowing for a recovery. By three years after the tariff implementation, US output is projected to return to baseline levels, and the economy would eventually continue growing along its long-term trend.Outside the United States, however, the consequences appear more lasting. Global output, excluding the US, would see a permanent loss, leaving the overall global economy 0.3% smaller than it would have been without the tariffs. Growth in the rest of the world would resume roughly two years after the shock, but the output losses during that period would not be fully recovered. Notably, the global trade growth would also slow down, reflecting a less integrated global economy. This deceleration flags the broader, long-term effect of tariffs in fragmenting international trade networks.Citi’s model illustrates that while such tariffs may yield marginal improvements in the US trade balance (about 0.2% of GDP over time), the policy falls short of achieving substantial corrections in trade imbalances. This limited impact is largely offset by a stronger US dollar, which diminishes the potential gains from reduced imports. Moreover, Citi notes that the scenario analyzed does not account for retaliatory measures from other countries, which are a likely real-world consequence of such a protectionist move.  More