Economy

They also agreed on the need to speed up reform of the World Trade Organization to achieve a “faster, more agile and effective,” conflict resolution system, Brazil’s Vice President and Trade Minister Geraldo Alckmin told reporters.The proposals agreed by G20 trade ministers meeting in Brasilia will be proposed to the group’s leaders at the annual summit hosted by Brazil in November in Rio de Janeiro and be annexed to their joint statement.It is the first time the G20 has addressed the issue of increased inclusion of women in international trade, Alckmin said, adding that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had insisted on it becoming a G20 principle.Brazil, which will host the COP30 climate talks next year, also gave priority to the need to fight climate change and proposed that the G20 should call for trade and investments that encourage environmentally sustainable economic development.Lula has also made reform of global governance institutions a priority and the ministers agreed to support WTO reform and the strengthening of a multilateral trading system, a Brazilian government statement said.”We stressed the importance of a rulesbased, non-discriminatory, fair, open, inclusive, equitable, sustainable and transparent multilateral trading system, with the WTO at its core. We will work to ensure a level playing field and fair competition to foster a favorable trade and investment environment for all,” the statement said.The one-day meeting avoided divisive issues, though members expressed their views on Russia and Ukraine and the situation in Gaza, with some wanting them discussed in the G20 and others saying it was not the right forum, the Brazilian statement said.”There were disagreements in drafting the texts and things were dropped, but at the end there was consensus on everything, including the proposal on women in international trade,” said an Asian diplomat who attended the meeting. More

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s political parties are promising to raise the minimum wage, a step that may win votes in Sunday’s general election but could squeeze the small and midsize firms that form the backbone of the world’s fourth-largest economy.The wage-hike pledges particularly threaten small businesses, which account for two-thirds of jobs and over half of economic output, as they are already struggling to manage rising costs.Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party – which polls show may struggle to retain its parliamentary majority – has pledged to raise the average minimum wage by 42% to 1,500 yen ($9.80) per hour by the end of the decade. The LDP had previously aimed to reach that goal by the mid-2030s.The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and other parties have pledged to raise the minimum wage at least that high, without specifying a time frame.The politicians have given scant details about how they would help firms offset the cost of a higher minimum wage, prompting Japan’s main business federation, Keidanren, to sound the alarm this week.”We must aim for challenging goals as a whole, but I feel uneasy about pushing something that is utterly impossible,” lobby head Masakazu Tokura told a press conference, adding that the pace of wage hikes needed to hit the LDP’s goal may be hard for many small companies to follow.Inflation, a top election issue, is pinching both households and companies, especially smaller firms, with bankruptcies forecast to hit an 11-year high this year due to a combination of high prices and interest rates, and a labour shortage.To help lower-income workers, major companies this year offered raises of 5.1%, the most in three decades, and the government decided to raise the hourly minimum wage by about 5% to 1,055 yen ($6.90).”It’s been a long time coming, but it is good to see that political parties are converging on minimum wages,” said Koichi Kurosawa, secretary general of National Confederation of Trade Unions. The union has called for an immediate hike to a 1,500 yen minimum wage.Nearly half the workforce, or some 28 million people, earn less than 1,500 yen an hour, so the labour force would benefit from the higher minimum wage, according to the Japan Research Institute of Labour Movement.The average annual salary in Japan is $39,000, well below the $49,000 average across OECD developed economies. Bankruptcies jumped 18.6% in the six months to September from the same period last year to 4,990 cases, with a record number caused by inflation, according to credit research firm Teikoku Databank. The LDP and other parties have said they will help companies offset costs with steps such as tax breaks or subsidies but have offered few details.”It’s already hard to cope with minimum wages of 1,000 yen,” said Takeshi Nishimura, a manager at Big Yosan supermarket in Yokohama. “If it rises to 1,500 yen, that would make life even tougher for us small firms.”($1 = 152.4100 yen) More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A group of funds backed by the world’s 20 largest economies aimed at financing climate transition projects needs to be more targeted and operate with greater efficiency to improve the slow pace of disbursements, according to a report on Thursday from the G20’s sustainable finance working group.The G20 stated that because climate and environmental funds have different accreditation and programming requirements, current mechanisms present “fragmented and time-consuming” pathways for accessing their resources.Together, the Green Climate Fund, Climate Investment Funds, Adaptation Fund, and Global Environment Facility have an annual commitment capacity of $4 billion to $5 billion, with disbursements totaling $1.4 billion in 2022. Their disbursement-to-approval ratio ranges from 76% for the Global Environment Facility to 31% for the Green Climate Fund.The data is part of an independent review authorized by the G20, which noted that while these funds represent a small volume relative to other public and private sources, they provide concessional resources that are key to supporting an effective climate transition in developing and low-income economies.The independent review recommended climate funds adopt targeted measures to enhance efficiency, including streamlining accreditation processes, shortening project approval times, and accelerating disbursements.The recommendations include collaboration to harmonize procedures in support of integration and the reduction of transaction costs, aiming to work as a system.The review also urged climate funds to proactively support investment platforms built by countries, shifting from a focus of supporting individual projects to country-driven strategies.”Monitoring of the effective implementation of the report’s recommendations will be conducted over the next G20 presidencies in collaboration with the vertical climate and environmental funds, noting its voluntary nature,” the G20 sustainable finance report said. Brazil has used its G20 presidency to push for ways to boost financing for developing countries, arguing they are falling behind in the transition to low-carbon economies while increasingly bearing the brunt of the impact of climate change.The country’s finance track coordinator, Tatiana Rosito, said the recommendations for climate funds, as well as a roadmap for reforming multilateral development banks to boost their lending capacity, were significant outcomes of the gathering of G20 finance ministers, given their connection to the need to mobilize more resources for financing the climate transition.Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva, speaking alongside Rosito in a press conference at the IMF and World Bank meetings, said the national leaders who will gather at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro in November “will be drawing from this groundwork.””Even in a geopolitical context of heightened tensions, which could have hindered our ability to reach consensus, it was possible to foster an understanding that the climate issue requires a collective effort and extensive cooperation, regardless of our differences,” Silva said. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Democratic chair of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee and a prominent Democratic congressman asked the U.S. attorney general on Thursday to appoint a special counsel to investigate whether Jared Kushner, former President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, was functioning as an unregistered foreign agent for Saudi Arabia, according to a letter from the lawmakers. The letter from U.S. Senator Ron Wyden and U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin cited an Oct. 4 Reuters report that revealed that Kushner on multiple occasions had discussed U.S.-Saudi diplomacy concerning Israel with Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, since leaving government.”This revelation is deeply disturbing, as Mr. Kushner appears to be influencing U.S. foreign policy by acting as a political consultant to the Saudi government while also accepting their money,” Wyden and Raskin wrote in the eight-page letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland. The letter has not been previously reported.”Mr. Kushner’s proximity to President Trump and the potential for political interference warrants the appointment of a Special Counsel,” the letter added.Saudi Arabia has invested $2 billion into a private equity fund, Affinity Partners, that Kushner, who was a top adviser on the Middle East during Trump’s administration, founded in 2021 after leaving government, according to congressional investigators.In a statement, Kushner said, “There is no conflict of interest.” He dismissed the letter as “silly political stunts” and said it was “beneath the level of seriousness that both of their chambers deserve.”Chad Mizelle, Chief Legal Officer at Affinity Partners, called the request for a Special Counsel “a disgraceful attempt by Wyden and Raskin to turn an already weaponized DOJ into a fully political operation with accusations that have no merit or evidence.”The Department of Justice acknowledged receipt of the letter but declined further comment. The Saudi Arabian embassy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.Saudi Arabia’s investments in Kushner’s fund have been criticized by ethics experts, Democrats in Congress and some Republicans, who have expressed concern that Saudi Arabia’s stake can look like a payoff since Kushner worked on Saudi issues before leaving Trump’s White House.”There is substantial reason to believe,” the letter wrote, “that the Saudi government’s decision to engage Affinity for investment advice is a fig leaf for funneling money directly to Mr. Kushner and his wife, Ivanka Trump.” Affinity and Kushner have previously denied that Saudi Arabia’s investments are a payoff or a conflict of interest. Affinity has said Wyden and his Senate staff do not understand the realities of private equity.The letter comes less than two weeks before the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election between Trump, a Republican, and Democrat Kamala Harris. Special counsel investigations have more political independence than prosecutions run by Justice Department attorneys, though special counsels can be fired by the Attorney General.During his time as Trump’s special advisor, Kushner engineered the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements in which Islamic nations established diplomatic ties with Israel in exchange for concessions by the United States. Saudi Arabia never signed on but the Biden Administration has tried to encourage the kingdom to normalize relations with Israel, an effort that appeared to stall amid the Gaza conflict.The Oct. 4 Reuters report, quoting a source familiar with the discussions, said Kushner’s talks with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince included the process of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The source did not identify when the talks took place and whether they occurred before or after the start of the Gaza conflict.The U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act, or FARA, requires agents of foreign interests who engage in political activity to register with the Department of Justice.Wyden is the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and has been investigating investments by Saudi Arabia and other countries in Kushner’s funds since June. Raskin is the ranking member of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability.(Alexandra Ulmer reported from San Francisco. Editing by Jason Szep) More

“Equities, as a real asset, are the most effective hedge against inflation and thus from an asset allocation point of view an essential overweight for those fearing inflation risks during a second Trump presidency,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note.The odds of a total sweep by Republicans in the Nov. 5 election have moved closer to 50% in the Polymarket prediction market.History shows that during periods of macro certainty and stability, the return on equities remain stable and show low sensitivity to even “large swings in interest rates,” the analysts said.”Since 1996, the equity yield of the S&P500 has been hovering between 6% and 8% even as bond and cash yields trended lower for more than two decades approaching zero by March 2020,” they added.In contrast, during the period of high macro or policy uncertainty seen between 1967 and 1981, “the equity yield of the S&P500 exhibited high sensitivity to interest rates.”The note comes as recent polls show Trump narrowing the gap with Harris in key battleground states, increasing the possibility of a Republican victory in both the White House and Congress, a so-called Republican sweep.But the rising prospect of a Trump win is at the same time “raising fears among investors that inflation will reemerge as a problem at some point in late 2025 or 2026 amid a combination of looser fiscal policy and potential for supply chain disruptions,” the analysts said.Looking at the red-hot inflationary period from mid-2020 to mid-2023, which was aided by huge fiscal stimulus and supply disruptions, may provide some clues on how investors could position for a similar scenario. Mostly equities, energy as well as industrial metals among commodities managed “to beat inflation,” the analysts said, while “bonds in general underperformed inflation and that was also true with gold.” More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. A day of general calm across world markets on Thursday that saw the dollar and U.S. bond yields soften and stocks consolidate bodes well for markets in Asia on Friday as attention focuses on political and economic events in Japan. Voters go to the polls in Sunday’s general election, and several recent polls suggest the ruling coalition could lose its parliamentary majority. From a market perspective, this could deprive the Bank of Japan the political stability needed to steer a smooth liftoff from near-zero interest rates. Tokyo consumer inflation, a leading indicator of nationwide price trends and the main highlight of Asia’s economic calendar on Friday, could also give the BOJ food for thought ahead of its policy meeting next week.Inflation in Tokyo likely undershot the central bank’s price target for the first time in five months, according to a Reuters poll, coming in at an annual rate of 1.7%. That would follow a 2.0% rise in September and mark the first time the data misses the BOJ’s 2% target since May.A senior International Monetary Fund official on Thursday said any further rate hikes in Japan should be conducted at a “gradual pace,” noting that BOJ moves could impact financial markets of other countries where Japanese investors hold large positions.Krishna Srinivasan, the director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, also said that most Asian central banks have room to cut rates, as the start of the U.S. easing cycle reduces fears of an unwelcome weakening of their currencies.What’s more, risks to Asia’s economic outlook are tilted to the downside, he added.The Japanese yen recovered some ground on Thursday, clocking its biggest rise in a month and pushing the dollar down to 151.50 yen from Wednesday’s three-month high above 153.00. The yen’s recent weakness, however, has lured overseas investors into Japanese markets. Figures on Thursday showed that foreigners bought Japanese stocks for a fourth straight week through Oct. 19, although caution ahead of Sunday’s election and upcoming corporate earnings releases tempered the inflows.Despite the modest reversal on Thursday, the spike in the dollar and U.S. bond yields recently to three-month highs has helped put Asian stocks on course for a third consecutive weekly loss. Nor have the yen’s recent weakness and foreign investor inflow prevented Japanese stocks from losing ground, and the Nikkei goes into Friday’s session down more than 2% so far this week.Elsewhere, industrial production figures from Singapore are expected to show a sharp slowdown in September from unusually strong activity in August. Economists expect year-on-year growth of 3.5%, down from 21%, which was fastest since 2021 and one of the strongest of the past 15 years.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- Tokyo CPI inflation (October)- Japan services PPI inflation (September)- Singapore industrial production (September) More

TORONTO (Reuters) -Canada’s immigration cuts, meant to ease strained housing and social services, could hurt the country’s labor pool, some industry groups said on Thursday.While Canada has long prided itself as a place that welcomes new immigrants, public opinion in the country has recently soured on immigration, which has been blamed for reducing housing affordability.Canada is set to bring in 395,000 new permanent residents in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027, down from 485,000 in 2024, in the first multi-year reduction since Ottawa started laying out multi-year immigration levels in 2018. Canada had planned to bring in 500,000 next year and the same amount in 2027.Diana Palmerin-Velasco, senior director of the Future of Work with Canada’s Chamber of Commerce, expressed concern about the changes.”I think we were able to officially avoid a recession because of immigration,” she said.”There’s concern in the business community about the message that we are sending. You know, if we want more foreign investment, we need to have the people.”Canada is also reducing the number of temporary residents by hundreds of thousands a year. The government hopes that more than 1 million people whose visas are set to expire in the coming years will leave of their own accord.Small business owners’ heads are “spinning” from the change, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business said in a statement.”CFIB is already receiving panicked calls from small business owners, including many who are heartbroken to have to say goodbye to their foreign workers who are already in Canada and whose visas are soon to expire.”Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed the cuts earlier in the day, saying his government had gone too far in seeking to address post-pandemic labor shortages.”We are acting today because in the tumultuous times as we emerged from the pandemic, between addressing labor needs and maintaining population growth, we didn’t get the balance quite right,” Trudeau told reporters. Opinion polls show a growing number of Canadians think Canada is bringing in too many immigrants. The federal Liberal government, trailing in polls ahead of an election that must be held by October 2025, has sought to clamp down on immigration. The measures are expected to result in a population decline of 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before returning to growth in 2027, the government said.Cam Dahl, general manager of the Manitoba Pork Council, said he hopes there is room for regional variation.”What’s good policy for Vancouver and Toronto is not going to be good policy for Notre-Dame-de-Lourdes or Brandon or Neepawa,” he said, referring to three Manitoba communities.On hog farms, in trucking, in slaughter and processing plants, Dahl said, “new Canadians are absolutely essential.”The immigration cuts are expected to reduce Canada’s housing supply gap by about 670,000 units by the end of 2027, according to the government.In a note on Thursday, analysts at BMO bank said the move “will take stress off the economy and infrastructure that has become almost debilitating in recent years.”The cuts to permanent residents make sense, said Mike Moffat, senior director of the Smart Prosperity Institute, a research network based at the University of Ottawa.There may be an impact on the labor market, likely in the realm of entry-level jobs, he said. But there is also a danger cutting immigration could hit such key workforces as healthcare.”The government will have to make sure that there’s still robust pathways, particularly in the healthcare sector, because we could see shortages there otherwise,” Moffatt said. More

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