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Fears of a slowing economy and worries about tariffs have spurred young Americans to point out so-called recession indicators.
Some businesses are also picking up on the trend, with dining establishments and bars offering “recession specials.”
Consumer sentiment has been on the decline, according to data from the University of Michigan.
A sign outside Brooklyn coffee shop Clever Blend offers a $6 gelato and espresso “recession special.”
Lisa Kailai Han | CNBC
As fears of a slowing economy lurk in the background, some businesses are taking notice and bringing back so-called recession specials.
Look up the term “recession specials” through Google’s search engine, and the list of results will include entries from the Great Recession nearly 20 years ago.
Consider this Grub Street article from 2008 slugged “Recession Specials: Your Definitive Guide.” Or this 2009 story from The New York Times, which details the mealtime recession specials restaurants across New York offered as an act of survival.
Fast-forward to 2025 and a crop of establishments are once more hinting at a looming economic downturn.
When ‘recession’ returns as a selling point
Recession fears were heating up this spring as President Donald Trump rolled out a slate of tariffs in early April. The term “recession indicator” entered the vernacular of social media users as a tongue-in-cheek way of gauging a potential economic slowdown.
Businesses are now getting in on the joke as well. For instance, Brooklyn, New York coffee shop Clever Blend advertises a $6 gelato and espresso “recession special.”
Wicked Willy’s, a bar in Manhattan, got on board by offering a “Recession Pop Party” earlier this month, with one caption on an Instagram post declaring: “The recession is BACK! Get ready to dance and party all night long!”
Market Hotel, a Brooklyn concert venue, advertised a similar event. “From The Fame to Animal, Circus to Rated R, we’re serving economic anxiety with a side of electro-pop, bloghaus, and auto-tuned glam,” an Instagram caption for the event read. “Dress like rent’s due and you’re dancing through it.”
But the trend doesn’t just stop in New York. Super Duper, a burger chain with 18 locations across the San Francisco Bay Area, tapped in earlier this year with its own “Recession Burger,” a seasonal special introduced in the summer.
“THE ONE THING THAT DIDN’T GET THE INFLATION MEMO: Meet the Recession Combo, our new Seasonal Special,” a post from Super Duper’s Instagram reads. The meal includes a “Recession Burger,” fries and a beverage for $10.
An Instagram post from Super Duper Burgers advertises its summer “Recession Combo” special.
Courtesy: Super Duper Burgers via Instagram
The idea for the burger’s name didn’t necessarily come from a desire to cash in on the buzzword, said Ed Onas, Super Duper’s vice president of operations. Instead, he said, the moniker was derived from the Depression-era origins of the Oklahoma-style smash burger, which aimed to stretch ground beef by adding lots of sliced onions.
But once Super Duper established the burger’s name, the chain decided to offer a discounted “Recession Combo” for $10. This would save customers $5 from the normal price of the add-ons, Onas said.
“That’s kind of where the name of the burger plays in … And we figured, we’re calling it the ‘Recession Combo,’ why don’t we just offer a deal that makes it a really good value for our guests?” Onas told CNBC in an interview. “Inflation has kind of been going on, and we figured it’s a nice offer for a short amount of time for our guests.”
This extra-value combo meal was an exception for Super Duper, which normally doesn’t offer such deals. The burger went viral in a local San Francisco subreddit, with a post gaining 1,400 upvotes and 170 comments.
“Obviously, we were happy about it. We didn’t realize that it was going to get as much attention as it did,” Onas said. “We were happy, and our guests were happy, and at the end of the day, that’s what it’s all about.”
As a testament to the burger’s overwhelming success, Onas told CNBC that Super Duper will be adding it onto its menu as a permanent fixture going forward.
Shedding light on waning consumer sentiment
These small businesses getting in on the trend could be a broader reaction to waning consumer confidence. Consider that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 58.6 in August, down from a reading of 61.7 in July and reflecting a 13.7% change on a year-over-year basis.
This souring in sentiment has been driven primarily by concerns over trade policy, said Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan.
“What’s very clear from the consumer sentiment data is that consumers are broadly bracing for a slowdown in the economy and a deterioration — not just with inflation, expecting inflation to get worse — but they’re also expecting businesses conditions to deteriorate,” she said. “They’re expecting labor markets to weaken and unemployment rates to go up. And what you’re seeing with these businesses could be a reaction to that.”
A lack of consumer confidence — and trust in income reliability — will ultimately lead to a pullback in spending, Hsu added.
“Young people are feeling just as bad about the economy as older folks, and in some months they feel even worse than older folks,” she said. “Across the age distribution, people agree that the trajectory of the economy has soured.” More
Spain’s gross domestic product surpassed expectations in the second quarter, growing 0.7%, above a forecast of 0.6%.
Investment and consumption are the main key drivers for this growth, as well as a booming tourism sector.
“Spain is a great outlier now in terms of growth. It’s also a great place to invest,” Spain’s Finance Minister Carlos Cuerpo told CNBC.
Tourists take photos as they visit the Sagrada Familia basilica in Barcelona, on August 2, 2025. (Photo by Manaure QUINTERO / AFP) (Photo by MANAURE QUINTERO/AFP via Getty Images)
Manaure Quintero | Afp | Getty Images
Spain’s booming economy is outpacing its European neighbors as tourism, foreign investment and immigration helps fuel growth.
The southern European country is still leading growth in the euro zone with annual gross domestic product forecasted to rise 2.5% this year, while the economies of France, Germany and Italy are respectively forecast to expand 0.6%, 0% and 0.7%.
Spain’s GDP surpassed expectations in the second quarter, growing 0.7%, above a Reuters forecast of 0.6%. The growth was also higher than the previous three months, which levelled at 0.6%, data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) showed.
“For the second year in a row, we will be the advanced economy number one in terms of GDP growth,” Spain’s Finance Minister Carlos Cuerpo told CNBC in April.
“Spain is a great outlier now in terms of growth. It’s also a great place to invest,” he added.
The success of Spain’s economy relies on high consumption and investment, as well as tourism, Next Generation European funds, and immigration.
“It’s not just tourism, it’s also non-tourism services. We’re exporting more in terms of services to firms like IT, accountability services, financial services, than we’re exporting in terms of tourism — 100 billion euros [$116.8 billion] with respect to 94.95 billion [euros in tourism]. So that’s an element of modernization of the Spanish economy,” said Cuerpo.
Despite this economic growth, several challenges await Spain, such as keeping pay in line with the rising cost of living, climate change, an ever more divided political scene and the fact the country has the highest youth employment rate in the EU.
“What is going to happen with tariffs and international trade, especially in an economy like Spain, where exports of goods have increased considerably over the last 15 years?” said Cardoso.
“The second challenge is that the savings rates remains relatively high. A third source is this low investment rates. And finally, how to decrease the government deficit and public debt.”
Immigration and tourism boom
Still, tourism in Spain represents around 12% of the country’s GDP, as it benefits from the pandemic rebound, and cheaper prices compared to other Western European nations.
The sector’s success has sparked backlash from local communities over the influx of people visiting historic and popular sites, particularly during the peak summer months. Last year in June, protesters in Barcelona were seen spraying travellers with water guns and shouting “tourists go home.”
The sector can also count on its growing workforce of nearly 3 million people as of 2024, a progression of 9.7% compared to 2023.
Job creation is also supported by high immigration. While other European countries are closing their borders, Spain is planning to welcome nearly a million migrants over the next three years, through work visa schemes and the granting of residence permits to undocumented workers.
“90% of the increase in the labour force since 2021 comes from immigration,” BBVA Research’s Chief Economist Miguel Cardoso told CNBC.
“This is allowing the service sector to expand. This is keeping firms relatively competitive in terms of containing the increase in labour costs, and it’s allowing, for example, the prices in services to remain relatively contained in a high inflationary environment.”
Las year, most people migrating to Spain came from Colombia, Venezuela and Morocco.
“Latin American economies, some of them are not doing relatively well, so there is this push factor. There is also the fact that immigration to the United States has become more difficult, and therefore people are turning around and seeing alternatives,” added Cardoso.
Spain’s economy has also been bolstered by the European Union’s Next Generation EU funds which has made 163 billion euros available to Spain, through grants and loans. The country is the second biggest beneficiary of this pandemic recovery assistance, following Italy.
Spain’s Cuerpo told CNBC that 70% of the grants — 55 billion euros — have already been dispersed.
“This was a program that was designed in part to try to help with the recovery after the pandemic,” said Cardoso.
“So the government prioritized investment projects that they already had a plan for, and therefore they are having a relatively low multiplying effect within the economy.”
Nonetheless, the Spanish government aims to use these funds in sectors such as non-tourism services exports, including renewables.
Low energy costs
Since investing in green energy in the 2000s, Spain has benefited from low energy costs and has seen less impact from the European energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“The increase in the renewable share in the electricity mix over the past five, six years has implied a drop of 40% in wholesale electricity prices,” Cuerpo said.
Low production costs are an attractive criterion for companies, particularly foreign investors, who also supply the sector.
Photovoltaics tracker company Arctech, founded in China in 2009, opened its European headquarters in Madrid in 2024. Photovoltaic cells convert sunlight directly into electricity. It’s a burgeoning renewable energy source that can lead to lower electricity costs.
“Spain is probably the location in Europe where the most PV has been done,” Arctech’s EU and NA Markets General Manager Pedro Magalhaes told CNBC.
“The solar ecosystem is really here [in Spain], from the junior engineer, all the way to the funds that are investing in these large assets.”
The company now boasts 17 branches outside China, and is planning to expand in Eastern Europe, as well as plans to diversify into storage solutions.
“Things are happening here. We use the port of Valencia to import and distribute to many locations in Europe,” Magalhaes added.
Like Arctech, many foreign companies are planning to take advantage of the country’s low energy costs.
Auto giant Stellantis teamed up with battery manufacturer CATL in late 2024, announcing plans to build a $4.3 billion lithium iron phosphate battery plant in Zaragoza, northeastern Spain.
Foreign direct investment in Spain is strong too, with the country ranking as the fourth most attractive country in the EU for investors. China alone declared it will be investing up to 11 billion euros in Spain in 2025, as it gears up for a record 33 new projects in the country.
“When you look at where does that investment come from, the largest investor in Spain is U.S.,” said Cuerpo.
“But we’re also attracting investment from other parts of the world, including China, on specific sectors related to renewables, to sustainable mobility as well, and this is of course, always part of our economic security agenda.” More
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