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    Potential Fed chair pick David Zervos of Jefferies backs aggressive interest rate cuts

    Wall Street veteran David Zervos added his name Thursday to the list of potential Federal Reserve chairs who think the central bank is past due in approving an interest rate reduction.
    For the past three Fed meetings, Zervos has advocated a half percentage point cut in the federal funds rate, and he repeated that position during a CNBC interview.

    Wall Street veteran David Zervos added his name Thursday to the list of potential Federal Reserve chairs who think the central bank is past due in approving an interest rate reduction.
    The chief market strategist at Jefferies told CNBC that central bankers shouldn’t be daunted by the July producer price index showing pipeline inflation pressures hotter than expected.

    Instead, he advocated the Fed move aggressively now to ease as a way to forestall a labor market slowdown and in fact help create a million more jobs. For the past three Fed meetings, Zervos has advocated a half percentage point cut in the federal funds rate, and he repeated that position during an interview.
    “I’m still absolutely there. I think there is a reasonable storyline, a very cogent storyline, that suggests monetary policy is restrictive,” he said. “Generally speaking, I don’t see any reason why this [PPI] number changes that view.”
    A process that had included just three or four names to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires next year has expanded in recent days to nearly a dozen.
    Zervos joins a list that includes current and past Fed officials, at least one Trump administration advisor and multiple other noted Wall Street economists. Of the group, Zervos and BlackRock bond strategist Rick Rieder are the only ones whose background is more concentrated on markets than economics.
    “I think it would be an incredible benefit to have more market-savvy, more market-competent people involved in the monetary policy decision,” Zervos said.

    Earlier in the day, economist Marc Sumerlin, also on the list of finalists, backed a half-point cut as well and said the Fed has been too conservative in fighting the inflation battle.
    President Donald Trump has pushed hard for the Fed to cut, lashing out repeatedly at Powell and suggesting that the Federal Open Market Committee should slash as much as 3 percentage points, or 300 basis points, off the funds rate, which is currently around 4.33%.
    “I don’t know that I could get all the way to 300, but I certainly could get to 200 and I could be convinced on lower than that if you really push the AI story and the technology story and the idea that we have disinflationary pressures building from a supply-side narrative,” Zervos said.
    Zervos added that he is not deterred by the types of criticism Trump has leveled at the Fed.
    “You go into that job fully understanding that you’re involved in the political process,” he said. “The goal is to have the debate be driven by facts and be driven by what is best for achieving the mandates that Congress sets out.”

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    US wholesale prices jump 3.3% as Trump trade war hits economy

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    Westminster forgets that inflation matters

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    Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected

    Wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.
    The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. It was the biggest monthly gain since June 2022.

    Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022.

    On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.3%, the biggest 12-month move since February and well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
    Services inflation provided much of the push higher, moving 1.1% higher in July for the largest gain also since March 2022. Trade services margins rose 2%, coming amid ongoing developments in President Donald Trump’s tariff implementations.
    In addition, 30% of the increase in services came from a 3.8% increase in machinery and equipment wholesaling. Also, portfolio management fees surged 5.8% and airline passenger services prices rose 1%.

    Stock market futures fell following the release, while shorter-duration Treasury yields moved higher.

    Though PPI is followed less closely than the BLS’ consumer price index, it provides important information on pipeline prices. Together, the measures feed into the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation forecasting gauge, which will be updated later this month.
    With CPI coming in right around expectations earlier this week, markets had been pricing a virtual certainty that the Fed will lower its key interest rate when it meets next in September. Following the release, odds of a September cut decreased but only slightly, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
    “The large spike in the Producer Price Index this morning shows inflation is coursing through the economy, even if it hasn’t been felt by consumers yet,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. “Given how benign the CPI numbers were on Tuesday, this is a most unwelcome surprise to the upside and is likely to unwind some of the optimism of a ‘guaranteed’ rate cut next month.
    The reports come amid escalating questions over BLS data accuracy.
    Trump earlier this month fired the former BLS commissioner and said he intends to nominate Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni as the next head of the bureau. Antoni has been a critic of the BLS and even has floated the idea of suspending the monthly nonfarm payrolls report until data accuracy can be better insured.
    The BLS has been hamstrung by budget cuts and layoffs that have forced it to alter the way it collects data. July’s PPI report was the first since the bureau eliminated some 350 categories from the exhaustive count of input costs. More

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    Economist Sumerlin confirms he’s in the running for Fed chair, backs big interest rate cut

    Economist Marc Sumerlin, one of nearly a dozen reported contenders for Fed chair, said Thursday he’d be interested in the job and believes an aggressive interest rate cut would be appropriate.
    “We could easily do a 50 basis point cut … without disrupting anything at all. So it seems like pretty much a no-brainer to me,” Sumerlin said on CNBC.
    He stressed the importance of Fed independence, something that has come under question this year.

    Economist Marc Sumerlin, one of nearly a dozen reported contenders for Federal Reserve chair, said Thursday he’d be interested in the job and believes an aggressive interest rate cut would be appropriate.
    Sumerlin, a former senior economist under then-President George W. Bush, said on CNBC that lowering the Fed’s key rate would be an easy decision now.

    The current yield structure combined with weakness in the labor market and stable inflation “tells us that we could easily do a 50 basis point cut … without disrupting anything at all. So it seems like pretty much a no-brainer to me.” A basis point equals 0.01%, so 50 basis points would be half a percentage point.
    With the field looking wide open to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell, Sumerlin’s position on rates puts him at least directionally in line with President Donald Trump. The president has repeatedly pushed the Fed to ease, advocating cuts of up to 3 percentage points, but the Powell-led Federal Open Market Committee has kept is benchmark funds rate unchanged since last lowering in December 2024.
    As far as the nomination sweepstakes goes, Sumerlin, currently managing partner for Evenflow Macro, confirmed that he was contacted by the White House last week. He noted that he is close friends with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has taken a leading role in the search for the next chair, saying the two have been discussing monetary policy “weekly for probably 12 years.”
    “I got a call last Wednesday that said there was going to be a list [and] I was going to be on it. That’s as much as I know right now,” he said. “I’m waiting for more guidance on where we go from here.”
    Sumerlin indicated that he would be interested in the nomination so long as certain conditions are met.

    “I think if it’s the Fed chair, it’s mission critical to the world. You have to be willing to do that,” he said. “I’ve never met the president before. It would depend on us seeing eye to eye.”
    Sumerlin stressed the importance of Fed independence, something that has come under question has Trump has taken the historically unprecedented step of criticizing Powell and his fellow policymakers publicly and in stark terms. He’s called Powell a “loser” and “stupid” and has criticized the FOMC for being complacent.
    “You have to go into it knowing that every day you’re going to walk in and just do the best job you can for the American people, and you’re going to get criticism and be prepared to deal with that,” Sumerlin said. “Ideally, you’d want to go in knowing that you’re in synch. In synch goes both ways, and that would be part of the process trying to figure it out.”
    In addition to Sumerlin, other candidates include current governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Governor Kevin Warsh, along with about half a dozen others. More

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    Rating and slating all the Fed chair candidates

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    The bond market stand-off

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