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    BofA now expects Bank of Canada to cut 25bp in January amid falling inflation, tariffs risk

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    This tax break, which temporarily removes the Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax on certain items, affects around 10% of the CPI basket, including food purchased in restaurants and store-bought alcoholic beverages.Core inflation measures also experienced a decline, with the average of the trimmed and median core measures falling to 2.45% yoy from November’s 2.60%. The median core inflation led at 2.4% yoy, followed by the trimmed mean at 2.5%. Despite the decreases, the core measures, which are adjusted for taxes, suggest some underlying easing, with services inflation remaining steady at 3.5% yoy and shelter inflation slowing slightly.In light of the recent inflation data, BofA’s inflation forecasts remain largely unchanged, with expectations for inflation to stabilize at 2.0% yoy by the end of 2025 and 2026. However, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is now anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting on January 29, a shift from the previous stance of holding rates steady. This expectation is driven by the continued fall in inflation, anchored inflation expectations, and weaker economic indicators from November 2024. Additionally, potential tariffs proposed by President Trump could influence the BoC to cut rates to support the Canadian economy and allow the Canadian dollar to act as a buffer.Canadian rates rose across the yield curve following the CPI announcement, reflecting the market’s reaction to the likelihood of rate cuts and the potential imposition of tariffs. The market is currently pricing in an 84% chance of a BoC rate cut at the next meeting. Furthermore, the risk of tariffs is leading to expectations of further BoC rate cuts to mitigate the impact on Canadian economic growth.In the foreign exchange market, the Canadian dollar saw little movement post-CPI release, as the anticipated BoC rate cut was already factored in. However, the possibility of the US implementing a 25% tariff has brought volatility to the USDCAD exchange rate, which remains below 1.45. The outcome of the tariff situation and the BoC’s response could influence the USDCAD pair to break above this level and potentially move towards a 1.50 range, depending on further policy rate adjustments by the BoC.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

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    Harvard settles lawsuits over antisemitism on campus

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    (Reuters) -Harvard University will provide additional protections for Jewish students under a settlement announced on Tuesday that resolves two lawsuits accusing the Ivy League school of becoming a hotbed of rampant antisemitism.Harvard said it will adopt the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism, including specific examples of discrimination and harassment, when evaluating whether conduct violates its non-discrimination and anti-bullying policies.The university will also address Frequently Asked Questions about its policies online, report annually for five years on its enforcement efforts, and provide training on combating antisemitism to staff who review discrimination complaints.Harvard’s settlement resolves a lawsuit by Students Against Antisemitism, and a lawsuit by Jewish Americans for Fairness in Education and the Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under Law, and includes unspecified monetary payments. The university did not admit wrongdoing.Both lawsuits were among many accusing major universities of encouraging antisemitism after war broke out between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, leading to several months of pro-Palestinian protests on American college campuses.Marc Kasowitz, a lawyer for Students Against Antisemitism, said in an interview he had “great confidence” that Harvard was committed to protecting its Jewish students, including those targeted simply for supporting Israel.”Statements about destroying the state of Israel, murdering Israelis, and that sort of thing are antisemitic statements,” he said. “That gives us confidence that these measures are going to be very, very protective of the interests and rights of Jewish students on the Harvard campus.”Kenneth Marcus, who founded and chairs the Brandeis Center, said IHRA’s definition of antisemitism provides clear guidance to school administrators, and aligns with President Donald Trump’s 2019 executive order on combating antisemitism.”We expect every other college to meet or exceed that standard,” Marcus said in an interview.HARVARD PLEDGES A ‘WELCOMING’ CAMPUSJewish students accused Harvard of selectively enforcing its anti-discrimination policies, including by tolerating their being maligned as “murderers” and subjected to a viral “die-in” where attendees accused Israel of war crimes.They also accused Harvard of hiring professors who promoted anti-Jewish violence and spread antisemitic propaganda.Last June, Harvard task forces on antisemitism and anti-Muslim bias each found a Cambridge, Massachusetts campus beset by discrimination and harassment, including toward people with pro-Palestinian as well as pro-Israel views.Both lawsuits accused Harvard of violating Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which bars federal funds recipients from allowing discrimination based on race, religion and national origin.The FAQ includes a statement recognizing that many Jews consider Zionism part of their identity, and that discrimination or harassment targeting Jewish and Israeli people can also violate Harvard’s policy if directed toward Zionists.”We are committed to ensuring our Jewish community is embraced, respected and can thrive at Harvard,” a university spokesperson said in a statement.”We are resolute in our efforts to confront antisemitism and will continue to implement robust steps to maintain a welcoming, open, and safe campus environment where every student feels a sense of belonging,” the spokesperson added.TRUMP’S IMPACTAlexander Kestenbaum, a Harvard Divinity School student and plaintiff in the Students Against Antisemitism lawsuit, did not settle and will keep seeking compensatory damages. His new lawyers did not immediately respond to requests for comment.The settlement came after a federal judge in Boston refused to dismiss both lawsuits.Kasowitz said Trump’s statements about how his second administration would protect Jewish students’ rights were “certainly helpful” in reaching the settlement.Students Against Antisemitism settled similar litigation against New York University last July, and Kasowitz said the group was pleased that campus life for Jewish students there has “dramatically improved.”The group is still pursuing Title VI cases against Columbia University and the University of Pennsylvania, while the Brandeis Center is pursuing cases against several schools including the University of California, Berkeley.Columbia and Penn declined to comment on the settlement or their lawsuits. UC Berkeley did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Harvard declined additional comment. More

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    Five takeaways on Trump’s opening trade salvo

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    $99 for your first yearFT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday, plus FT Digital Edition delivered to your device Monday-Saturday.What’s included Weekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysis More

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    Trump Pitches External Revenue Service to Collect Tariffs: What to Know

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    President Trump has promised to generate a “massive” amount of revenue with tariffs on foreign products, an amount so big that the president said he would create a new agency — the External Revenue Service — to handle collecting the money.“Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens,” Mr. Trump said on Monday in his inaugural address, where he reiterated a promise to create the agency. “It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our Treasury coming from foreign sources.”Much about the new agency remains unclear, including how it would differ from the government’s current operations. Trade experts said that, despite the name “external,” the bulk of tariff revenue would continue to be collected from U.S. businesses that import products.Here’s what you need to know about what Mr. Trump has proposed.The U.S. has an established system for collecting tariffs.Tariff revenue is currently collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which monitors the goods and the people that come into the United States through hundreds of airports and land crossings.This has been the case nearly since the country’s inception. Congress established the Customs Service in 1789 as part of the Treasury Department, and for roughly a century tariffs were the primary source of government revenue, counted in stately customs houses that still stand in most major cities throughout the United States, said John Foote, a customs lawyer at Kelley, Drye and Warren.With the creation of the income tax in 1913, tariffs became a minor source of government revenue, and after the Sept. 11 attacks, the customs bureau was moved from the Treasury Department to the Department of Homeland Security.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Europe Braces for a New Trump Era, Uncertain About What It Means

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    As Donald J. Trump took the oath of office in Washington on Monday, the crowd at a jam-packed party held by Ukrainian business groups in Davos, Switzerland, intently watched the ceremony on huge screens.The event, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual conference, seemed to be a display of enthusiasm for the returned American president. Speakers praised Mr. Trump and predicted that he would be a valuable partner for Ukraine in its war against Russia, despite his criticism of U.S. spending on the military effort. Waiters served mini cheeseburgers on red-and-blue buns (“American food,” attendees whispered). A few people applauded at the end.Yet the apparent optimism was a thin veneer over deep uncertainty.“We expect President Trump to surprise us, but we do not know what the surprise will be,” Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, said at the party.Mr. Trump’s return to the White House has plunged Europe’s business leaders and policymakers into a precarious era, and officials have been bracing for it behind the scenes. The European Commission — the European Union’s executive arm — formed a never-officially-announced group, sometimes colloquially referred to as a “Trump task force,” which spent much of 2024 working on possible responses to changes to American trade and foreign policy.There is almost no aspect of European policy that Mr. Trump does not seem poised to upend. He is threatening to impose sweeping tariffs and is pressing for much heftier European spending on defense. Two of his first acts as president were to withdraw from the Paris climate agreements and the World Health Organization.How he will adjust America’s stance toward Ukraine is one of the biggest questions: During his campaign, he pledged to end the war on his first day in office, though that timeline has crept back and he has not said how.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Futures inch up with focus on President Trump’s trade policy

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    (Reuters) -U.S. stock index futures edged up in choppy trading on Tuesday, as investors assessed newly elected President Donald Trump’s executive orders on issues including energy and immigration, while awaiting his first move on trade policy.President Trump did not lay out any concrete plans on the universal tariffs and additional surcharges on close trade partners as expected, but said he was thinking about imposing duties on Canadian and Mexican goods as early as Feb. 1.While investors remain cautious, brokerage Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for a universal tariff this year to 25% from about 40% seen in December. At 07:23 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 211 points, or 0.48%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 22 points, or 0.36% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 91.25 points, or 0.43%.Futures tracking the domestically focused small-cap Russell 2000 index added 0.6%. Automakers General motors and Ford (NYSE:F) that have supply chains spread across the continent edged up 0.8% and 1.5%. Elon Musk-led Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) added 2% premarket trading.U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) and Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) added 5.7% and 5.4%, respectively on no signs of imminent surcharges on Chinese goods.Markets have been sensitive to any reports on Trump’s tariff policies on concerns it could spark a global trade war and fresh inflation pressures.”Tariffs mean a stronger U.S. dollar due to higher import prices and weaker global growth, no tariffs means stronger global trade and a more robust global growth backdrop,” said Kyle Rodda, senior markets analyst at Capital.com.”Just like the first Trump administration, the markets are highly sensitive to headline risk, especially as it relates to trade wars.” During the first year of Trump’s first administration, the S&P 500 rose 19.4%, while during the entirety of his first term, the benchmark index rose nearly 68%, but saw bouts of volatility, stemming in part from a trade war Trump fought with China.However, inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, stoking worries that Trump’s policies could delay the central bank’s pace of monetary policy easing. Economists see the Fed leaving borrowing costs unchanged when it meets next week and traders see the first interest rate coming in July, according to data compiled by LSEG.Oil stocks Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) rose 1.6% and SLB climbed 0.7% after Trump declared a national energy emergency to accelerate permitting oil, gas and power projects.Prison operators Geo advanced 1.1% and CoreCivic (NYSE:CXW) rose 2.4%, after Trump declared a national emergency on illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexican border. Nuclear stocks Oklo rose 5.4% and Vistra added 5.5% as energy secretary Chris Wright said he plans to prioritize domestic nuclear energy production.Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) fell 2.1% after brokerage Jefferies cut its rating on the iPhone maker to ‘underperform’.3M rose 4.2% after the industrial conglomerate posted upbeat fourth-quarter profits, while strong results from D.R. Horton sent the home-builder’s shares up 3.6%. More