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TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s exports fell for the first time in 10 months in September, data showed on Thursday, a worry for policymakers as any prolonged weakness in global demand will delay plans for a further interest rate hike.Soft demand in China and slowing U.S. growth have been cited by analysts as a key risk factor for Japan’s export-reliant economy and one that could complicate the central bank’s path toward fully exiting years of ultra-easy monetary policy.Total exports dropped 1.7% year-on-year in September, Ministry of Finance data showed, missing a median market forecast for a 0.5% increase and following a revised 5.5% rise in August.Exports to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 7.3% in September from a year earlier, while those to the United States were down 2.4%, the data showed.Imports grew 2.1% in September from a year earlier, compared with market forecasts for a 3.2% increase.As a result, Japan ran a trade deficit of 294.3 billion yen ($1.97 billion) for September, compared with the forecast of a deficit of 237.6 billion yen.Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has highlighted external risks such as U.S. economic uncertainties in his recent dovish commentary, emphasising that policymakers can afford to spend time scrutinising such risks in timing the next interest rate hike.While the BOJ is expected to keep interest rates steady at its Oct.30-31 meeting, it will roughly maintain its forecast for inflation to stay around its 2% target through March 2027, according to sources familiar with its thinking.Nevertheless, a quarterly central bank survey suggested the headwinds from the slowing global economy have yet to be fully felt by manufacturers, with the business mood holding up and companies retaining robust spending plans.That opens up the risk that things could get much bumpier in the coming months, especially as worries over slow global growth join nervousness around the outcome of the U.S. presidential election next month and an escalating conflict in the Middle East.($1 = 149.5400 yen) More
The Australian dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6691, rebounding from a one-month low, while three-year bond futures fell 6 ticks to 96.21.Markets pared the chance for a first interest rate cut in December to 30% from 46% before the data.Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment surged 64,100 in September from August, when they rose a downwardly revised 42,600. That was well above market forecasts for a 25,000 rise, and most of the gains were in full-time employment.The jobless rate held relatively steady at a downwardly adjusted 4.1%, from 4.2% the previous month, where it has generally been over the past six months, noted the ABS.The participation rate edged up to another all-time high of 67.2%, while hours worked rose another 0.3%.”Job growth has been remarkably strong over the past year, defying a marked slowdown in economic growth,” said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia.”We do think they support our view that a rate cut is further away than the market currently thinks. We still see the first RBA rate cut coming in Q2 2025. “Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, noted that there are still large numbers of people entering the labour force and finding work in a range of industries. The RBA has held its policy steady since November, judging the current cash rate of 4.35% – up from 0.1% during the pandemic – is restrictive enough to bring inflation to its target band of 2-3% while preserving employment gains.However, underlying inflation has remained sticky and the labour market is only slowing gradually, a reason that the RBA has all but ruled out a rate cut this year, lagging other major central banks in kick starting an easing cycle. More
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar held near an 11-week high on Thursday as uncertainty over the upcoming U.S. election looms and as resilience in the U.S. economy added to bets the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive in easing rates versus its peers elsewhere.The highlight of the Asia day will be a press conference in China at 0200 GMT focused on measures to prop up its beleaguered property sector, which will be key in getting the economy back on steadier footing and determining whether the rally in Chinese markets can continue.Ahead of the press conference, the offshore yuan was last 0.04% higher at 7.1328 per dollar.The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan, fell 0.02% to $0.6665, languishing near a one-month low hit in the previous session.The Aussie has been weighed down in part by investors’ disappointment over the lack of further stimulus details from China, which has also capped further upside in Chinese stocks.”Keeping a very close eye on China, waiting for yet another press conference which is probably going to be long in rhetoric and short in detail,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY).”Our sense is that there’s not a lot that we can get out of today … it’s very unlikely that we’ll get serious numbers. What we are looking for, though, is a little bit more colour in terms of what this objective of stabilising the housing market means.”In the broader market, the dollar was on the front foot, after having scaled an 11-week top against a basket of peers in the previous session.Sterling was flat at $1.2991, languishing near a two-month low hit on Wednesday due to weaker-than-expected UK inflation data, while the yen struggled near the 150 per dollar level and was last at 149.47.The euro eased 0.02% to $1.0859, ahead of a monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank later on Thursday where it is expected to deliver another rate cut.The dollar has not only drawn support from a run of upbeat data on the U.S. economy which has in turn caused traders to scale back their expectations of Fed rate cuts, but also on the possibility of a victory by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at next month’s election.”His core policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes would produce a more inflationary outlook in the U.S., diminishing prospects for aggressive Fed rate cuts over the cycle,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie.The dollar index was last steady at 103.51, having peaked at 103.60 in the previous session.Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar ticked up 0.07% to $0.6061, after hitting a two-month low on Wednesday as data showed domestic inflation returned to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1% to 3% in the third quarter, keeping the door open for the central bank to continue aggressively cutting rates. More
(Reuters) -Global miner BHP beat first-quarter iron ore output estimates on Thursday, spurred by easing of bottlenecks at its Western Australia operations amid efforts by China to revive its grappling property market and faltering economic growth.The world’s largest listed miner over the last year has ramped up the South Flank mine to full production capacity and streamlined its port operations for its Western Australian iron ore business. The ramp-up comes at a time when mining rivals including Vale and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) are moving to expand their supplies. Vale plans to further lift its production, while Rio’s Simandou mine will begin production next year. BHP, which is diversifying into potash, said the $10.5 billion Jansen Stage 1 project was 58% complete. The miner’s upbeat iron ore production update comes as China, the commodity’s largest purchaser, has been announcing a slew of stimulus measures to support its downbeat economic recovery. BHP said iron ore output from Western Australia on a 100% basis was 71.6 million metric tons in the three months to Sept. 30, beating a Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 70.7 Mt, according to a Macquarie note.”Upcoming stimulus (from China) is likely to focus on relieving local debt, stabilising the property market and bolstering business confidence,” said CEO Mike Henry. BHP, which has been aiming to expand its copper operations, recorded a 4% rise in the metal’s output for the quarter, reflecting improved performance at its Escondida mine in Chile. Analysts at Citi said Escondida output rose on higher grades and throughput at the Chilean mine. Earlier this year, BHP made a $49 billion bid for British copper major Anglo American (JO:AGLJ), which did not materialise. But BHP joined hands with Lundin Mining (OTC:LUNMF) to take over Filo Corp, gaining access to more copper assets. Copper, used widely across the globe, is an ideal conductor of electricity and easily malleable, qualities that have made it widely popular for use in wiring, engines, construction equipment, electronics and other devices.BHP’s shares were up 0.3% at A$43.67 in early trade. More
