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TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s exports fell for the first time in 10 months in September, data showed on Thursday, a worry for policymakers as any prolonged weakness in global demand will delay plans for a further interest rate hike.Soft demand in China and slowing U.S. growth have been cited by analysts as a key risk factor for Japan’s export-reliant economy and one that could complicate the central bank’s path toward fully exiting years of ultra-easy monetary policy.Total exports dropped 1.7% year-on-year in September, Ministry of Finance data showed, missing a median market forecast for a 0.5% increase and following a revised 5.5% rise in August.Exports to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 7.3% in September from a year earlier, while those to the United States were down 2.4%, the data showed.Imports grew 2.1% in September from a year earlier, compared with market forecasts for a 3.2% increase.As a result, Japan ran a trade deficit of 294.3 billion yen ($1.97 billion) for September, compared with the forecast of a deficit of 237.6 billion yen.Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has highlighted external risks such as U.S. economic uncertainties in his recent dovish commentary, emphasising that policymakers can afford to spend time scrutinising such risks in timing the next interest rate hike.While the BOJ is expected to keep interest rates steady at its Oct.30-31 meeting, it will roughly maintain its forecast for inflation to stay around its 2% target through March 2027, according to sources familiar with its thinking.Nevertheless, a quarterly central bank survey suggested the headwinds from the slowing global economy have yet to be fully felt by manufacturers, with the business mood holding up and companies retaining robust spending plans.That opens up the risk that things could get much bumpier in the coming months, especially as worries over slow global growth join nervousness around the outcome of the U.S. presidential election next month and an escalating conflict in the Middle East.($1 = 149.5400 yen) More

The Australian dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6691, rebounding from a one-month low, while three-year bond futures fell 6 ticks to 96.21.Markets pared the chance for a first interest rate cut in December to 30% from 46% before the data.Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment surged 64,100 in September from August, when they rose a downwardly revised 42,600. That was well above market forecasts for a 25,000 rise, and most of the gains were in full-time employment.The jobless rate held relatively steady at a downwardly adjusted 4.1%, from 4.2% the previous month, where it has generally been over the past six months, noted the ABS.The participation rate edged up to another all-time high of 67.2%, while hours worked rose another 0.3%.”Job growth has been remarkably strong over the past year, defying a marked slowdown in economic growth,” said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia.”We do think they support our view that a rate cut is further away than the market currently thinks. We still see the first RBA rate cut coming in Q2 2025. “Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, noted that there are still large numbers of people entering the labour force and finding work in a range of industries. The RBA has held its policy steady since November, judging the current cash rate of 4.35% – up from 0.1% during the pandemic – is restrictive enough to bring inflation to its target band of 2-3% while preserving employment gains.However, underlying inflation has remained sticky and the labour market is only slowing gradually, a reason that the RBA has all but ruled out a rate cut this year, lagging other major central banks in kick starting an easing cycle. More