Economy

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldNever read or post. That is my rule on social media. Always use primary sources. That is my rule when it comes to data and research for this column. When they clash — which frustratingly they have twice in as many months — the second rule trumps the first.  October saw me download TikTok to confirm whether indeed a song had gone viral about “looking for a man in finance”. What a cesspit of nonsense that app is. I pity the Chinese spies having to wade through it all day.  This week I’ve been forced to join Truth Social, as Donald Trump is using it to announce major policy initiatives. I wanted to see exactly what he wrote about tariffs on Monday that rattled markets so.Have you ever read a full post by the president-elect? What I don’t understand is his random use of capital letters. For example, the words Crime, Drugs, Invasion and Caravan appear mid-sentence. As do Illegal Aliens and Open Border.But “simmering problem” isn’t capitalised, nor is “pay a very big price”. Then I wondered if he was sending a secret message in caps. If you can decipher what MCCDCMOBEOMCTALLUSOBTDFAICMC means, do email our news desk.What was clear, though, is tariffs were branded as threats rather than instruments of economic policy. In this case against Canada and Mexico for supposedly failing to stop humans and Fentanyl from “pouring” into “our Country!”In a separate post Trump also tied an additional 10 per cent tariff on China specifically to drugs (small “d” this time). Hence it was surprising to me that currencies and stock prices took the news so seriously.There was an immediate drop of 1 per cent in the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso versus the greenback. Asian equity markets were also weaker as were European bourses. Carmakers in particular needed their airbags.By the end of the week, however, investors had moved on. Indeed, as I write the S&P 500 has racked up seven consecutive days of gains. Even the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index — heavy in tariff-vulnerable US companies with big China operations — is higher than it was last Friday.But the reason shares don’t care about Trump waving his tariff club around like my two-year-old son has nothing to do with whether or not he is serious. Nor Christine Lagarde’s advice on Thursday for Europe “not to retaliate but negotiate” on trade with the US.It is because of the fundamental nature of equities and how the buyers of them are compensated for uncertainty. This so-called risk premium is why stocks outperform most other asset classes. The riskier the bet, the higher the return.They are two sides of the same coin so cannot be separated. Trying to do so is silly. Proponents of environmental, social and governance-based investing, for example, keep failing to understand this.They argue on the one hand that picking stocks based on superior ESG scores makes sense because well-run companies are less risky. But they also claim these same companies should outperform over time.Er, no. If they are less volatile their returns will be lower. The premium investors will demand to own them falls. I have written about the flip side to this before in relation to high-emitting stocks. They beat the index precisely because of transition risk.The same is true with tariffs. If Trump and his latest nominees — Jamieson Greer for trade representative and Kevin Hassett for head of the National Economic Council — do ignite a trade war, equity risk premia rise and so too returns.You don’t need to be an academic to see that tariffs don’t bother equity markets. Pull up any long-run chart you like. Likewise, China’s stock market woes over the past few years have nothing to do with trade.But if, like me, research papers make you tingle in a nice way, you could do worse than reading one from three years ago in the Journal of International Money and Finance by Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon.In it they show that as well as affecting economic variables such as employment, trade and investment, uncertainty around tariffs also influences asset prices. Positively. Looking at the years between 1991 and 2001, as the US congress to and froed on revoking China’s preferential tariff treatment, they found investors demanded an extra 3.6 to 6.2 per cent return as compensation when uncertainty increased.Controlling for other factors, firms more exposed to possible tariffs experienced significantly higher stock returns than those less exposed, as defined by how global their businesses were as well as reliance on inputs from China specifically.Any risk premium hypothesis also requires other explanations for outperformance to be discounted. The paper looked at the three most obvious ones: that changes in expected profitability and cashflows drove the differences in returns; that investors over- or -underestimated the effect of tariff uncertainty on stock prices; that trade worries were considered positive for some US firms as they discouraged Chinese imports.None of these alternative explanations were supported by the data. Likewise, no premium was found when exactly the same analysis was run during years when trade regimes were stable.Therefore the result is genuine. And it would have made good money by trading a portfolio made up of long positions in companies exposed to trade uncertainty, while shorting those which aren’t. A similar approach based on ESG scores would probably work too — but try pitching that to Birkenstock-wearing Dutch trustees.The point for newbie equity investors is that risk — from tariffs, wars, technology or otherwise — is not to be feared. If you can hack the volatility, you will be paid for taking it.The author is a former portfolio manager. Email: stuart.kirk@ft.com; Twitter: @stuartkirk__ More

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldThis week, in a post on his social media site Truth Social, Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico “as one of my many first Executive Orders”. Trump specified that the tariffs would be 25 per cent on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and added an extra 10 per cent for Chinese goods — accusing these three countries of permitting illegal migration and drug trafficking into the US.But who will be harmed most? If the majority of American businesses importing goods pass on the cost of the tariff to the person buying the product, US consumers will be hit with higher retail prices. If US businesses absorb the extra costs, it will dent their profits. Or if foreign exporters are forced to lower their wholesale prices by the value of the tariff in order to retain US customers, they will take the hit.When Trump imposed tariffs in his first term of office between 2017 and 2020, economic studies suggested most of the impact was felt by US consumers. However, some economists predict that this time it is foreign exporters who will bear the brunt. So what do you think? Who will be most harmed by Trump’s tariffs? Tell us your view by voting in our poll or commenting below the line.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings. More

The bank now anticipates only two 25 basis points reductions in 2025, down from its previous forecast of three.The revision comes as Australia’s labor market shows resilience, with robust job growth and increased work hours, coupled with steady business conditions around long-term averages. Consumer confidence has also lifted, reflecting recognition of the government’s stage three tax cuts, ANZ said in a note.“The RBA’s tone remains hawkish, with the Board still focused on demand outpacing supply,” ANZ said. It added that inflation, measured on a six-month annualized trimmed mean basis, is projected to fall within the RBA’s target band by February, but that alone may not suffice to prompt early easing.”A lower-than-expected Q4 CPI and some softening in the labour market could prompt the RBA to cut in February, especially given that the November Board minutes appeared to open the door to an early 2025 easing,” said ANZ analysts, but emphasized that the probability of the central bank acting preemptively remains low.ANZ’s updated forecast places the terminal cash rate at 3.85%, as it now expects only two rate cuts, one in May, and another in August 2025.“Barring a significant shock, easing is more likely to be driven by a gradual decline in inflation rather than a sharp downturn in activity,” ANZ noted.Australia’s latest consumer price index inflation grew less than expected in October as government subsidies helped lower energy expenses, although core inflation rose further above the central bank’s target range. The RBA only expects inflation to fall within its 2% to 3% target range by 2026.The RBA held rates steady at a 12-year high of 4.35% in its November policy meeting , and any upcoming meetings and economic data will be closely watched as markets assess the trajectory of monetary policy heading into 2025.Westpac also recently pushed back expectations of a RBA cut to May, from February. More

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India’s economy is expected to have slowed in the July-September quarter, growing at the slowest pace in 18 months, weighed down by weak urban consumption following a rise in food prices despite an increase in government spending. A Reuters poll of economists projected GDP growth of 6.5% year-on-year for the three months through September, below the central bank’s estimate of 7% and 6.7% in the previous quarter. Economic activity, as measured by gross value added (GVA), was forecast to show a more modest 6.3% expansion compared with 6.8% in the previous quarter.If the projection holds, it would mark the third consecutive quarter of slower growth, though India would remain the world’s fastest growing major economy.The Reserve Bank of India (NS:BOI) (RBI) has maintained its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year at 7.2%, down from 8.2% in the previous fiscal year, while several private economists have lowered their projections. The National Statistics Office is due to announce GDP figures for July-September quarter on Friday at 1030 GMT.Economists said private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of India’s gross domestic product (GDP), has been affected by a slowdown in urban spending due to higher food inflation, borrowing costs and sluggish real wage growth, despite signs of recovery in rural demand.Retail food prices, which make up nearly half of the consumption basket, rose 10.87% year-on-year in October, eroding households’ purchasing power. Toshi Jain, an economist at J.P. Morgan, said recent months have seen a slowdown in high-frequency indicators such as industrial output, fuel consumption and bank credit growth, along with weak corporate earnings, affecting growth momentum. “(Though) government spending has re-accelerated in the July-September quarter that has not prevented a slowing in high frequency data, suggesting underlying private sector momentum has softened,” she said in note earlier this week.Jain expects GDP growth of 6.3% to 6.5% in September quarter.Top Indian companies posted their worst quarterly performance in over four years for the July-September period, raising concerns that an emerging economic slowdown had begun to affect corporate earnings and investment plans. However, the RBI is expected to keep its policy interest rates unchanged next week amid concerns over high retail inflation, according to economists in a Reuters poll. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee, left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.50% last month, while tweaking its policy stance to “neutral”. Government officials and some economists expect the economy could regain momentum in the second half of the fiscal year, helped by a pick-up in state spending after recent elections, and higher rural demand after a better harvest.”We expect recovery in growth in the second half,” Axis Capital (NYSE:AXS) Economic Research said in a note. More

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Home prices in Australia will rise steadily over the coming two years, driven by tight supply and an expected modest easing cycle from the Reserve Bank of Australia, according to a Reuters poll.The Nov. 12-28 Reuters survey of 12 real estate analysts forecast home prices to rise 5.0% next year and in 2026, faster than in an August poll.Even as RBA’s interest rates climbed from 0.10% to 4.35% since May 2022, Australia’s median home prices have risen in double digits from early 2023, underscoring the property market’s resilience.Much of that increase was due to supply shortages, an historically low jobless rate of around 4%, and immigration.Even with borrowing costs holding near a 13-year high for over a year, home prices rose for 21 months to October, a trend seen continuing as the RBA is expected to cut rates by 75 basis points next year.”The Australian housing market will continue to remain resilient to the various economic, interest rate, and political factors because there is a significant under-supply for a strong ongoing demand for houses to live in and to rent,” said Michael Yardney, founder of Metropole, a real estate advisory firm.”Interest rates will fall next year and that will bring consumer confidence back and affordability to some,” Yardney said.”First-time buyers are definitely still there in the market, but next year is going to be driven by more affluent people who have got more money with equity in their homes.”Among major cities, house prices in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth were predicted to rise 5.0%, 6.0%, and 8.3%, respectively, in 2025. In Sydney and Melbourne they were forecast to rise 4.0%.FIRST-TIME HOME BUYERSThe median asking price of homes increased from A$566,476 to A$874,827 ($368,039 to $568,375) between March 2020 and October 2024 – a 54% rise, according to data from Corelogic (NYSE:CLGX). Average wage growth has lagged substantially. “What we have seen during this cycle in particular has been a substantial drop in borrowing capacity relative to the still solid house price growth. So that divide between people’s ability to borrow and the cost of the final home is likely to continue,” said Johnathan McMenamin at Barrenjoey.Any relief from a rate cut from the RBA, which remains the only major central bank that has yet to lower borrowing costs, may still be several months away. In the meantime, to address the shortage, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese launched a new building programme in October and has pledged to build 1.2 million homes by 2030. (Other stories from the Q4 global Reuters housing poll)($1 = 1.5392 Australian dollars) More

TOKYO (Reuters) -Core consumer inflation in Japan’s capital accelerated in November and stayed above the central bank’s 2% target in a sign of broadening price pressure, data showed on Friday, keeping alive market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike.The yen rose against the dollar after the data, as market players braced for the possibility the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise short-term interest rates from the current 0.25% at its next policy meeting in December.The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.2% in November from a year earlier, exceeding a median market forecast for a 2.1% gain and accelerating from a 1.8% increase in October.Another index that strips away both fresh food and fuel costs, which is closely watched by the BOJ as a better gauge of demand-driven inflation, rose 1.9% in November from a year earlier after a 1.8% increase in October.The data for Tokyo, which is considered a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, showed households hit by rising rent, utility bills and food costs.Service-sector prices rose 0.9% in November from a year earlier after a 0.8% gain in October, underscoring the BOJ’s view that prospects of sustained wage gains are prodding firms to charge more for services.The dollar fell 0.3% at 151.125 yen after the data’s release. Just over half of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise rates again at its Dec. 18-19 meeting.Separate data showed Japan’s factory output rose 3.0% in October from the previous month, though manufacturers surveyed by the government expect production to fall in coming months.The BOJ ended negative interest rates in March and raised its short-term policy rate to 0.25% in July on the view Japan was making steady progress towards durably achieving its 2% inflation target.Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the BOJ will keep raising rates if inflation remains on track to stably hit 2% as it projects. More

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia’s central bank is finally getting a major shake-up of its policy-making process that adds extra uncertainty to when it might deliver interest rate relief to hard-pressed borrowers.Long-delayed reforms to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) passed parliament late on Thursday after the ruling Labor government secured support from Greens lawmakers, bypassing objections from the main Liberal National opposition.The changes, which were recommended by an independent review in 2023, include splitting the current RBA board into two groups with one dedicated to monetary policy and the other focusing on the central bank’s governance and operations.Analysts are assuming the new monetary policy committee would have some new members, perhaps changing the outlook for interest rate cuts. The current board has held rates at 4.35% for an entire year and signalled there was little chance of easing in the near term, even as many other developed world peers have slashed rates.”While our base case remains for the RBA to start cutting rates in February, the changes raise the uncertainty around the RBA’s reaction function going forward given potential new board personnel,” said Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Boak.The monetary policy committee (MPC) will retain the present structure of six external members appointed by the treasurer and three ‘ex officio’ members comprising the RBA governor, deputy governor and treasury secretary.Governor Michele Bullock has indicated some of the current board members might move to the MPC and others to the governance committee. The reforms recommended the new MPC have members with expertise in monetary policy, macroeconomics and the labour market, among other areas. They will formally vote at board meetings and the overall vote will be published, and members might choose to give public speeches.Speaking at a media conference on Friday, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the new format would be introduced some time after the RBA’s board meeting on Feb. 18, and likely by March 1.Chalmers said he would consult with the opposition on his choices for the new board, saying the candidates would be “first class and first rate”.The opposition had blocked the reforms in part arguing that Chalmers could pick appointees friendly toward the government.The RBA has already adopted some of the recommendations from the review, including having fewer but longer policy meetings and holding a press conference after each decision.The central bank will maintain its dual mandate of maintaining price stability and full employment. It aims to keep inflation in a target band of 2%-3% over time, with a focus on the mid-point of 2.5%.Headline consumer price inflation did slow sharply to 2.8% in the September quarter but mainly due to temporary government rebates on electricity bills.Core inflation, however, remained stubbornly high at 3.5% and Bullock has repeatedly stated the board will not ease policy until it is confident this measure will return to the mid-point of its 2%-3% target range. More

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldCanada’s government is to bolster its investment in border security after Donald Trump threatened to impose steep tariffs over illegal immigration and drug smuggling across the US-Canada frontier.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met Canada’s provincial leaders late on Wednesday to agree a united response to the US president-elect’s pledge this week to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada, which he said would remain in place “until such time as drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country”.After the meeting with Trudeau, Canada’s public safety minister Dominic LeBlanc said: “We believe that there is a circumstance where we can make additional investments to reassure Canadians that all of the measures necessary are in place and will continue to be in place”, although he declined to say how much extra money the federal government would make available. The US-Canada border is the longest in the world, stretching nearly 9,000km across land and water. Security on land is light; there are few walls or fences and in places it is marked by simple stone markers along residential streets. While major road crossing points have checkpoints, the boundary is largely controlled by mobile patrols, leaving it vulnerable to smugglers of migrants, drugs and weapons. Washington’s incoming border tsar, Tom Homan, said in a television interview earlier this month that “Canada . . . can’t be a gateway to terrorists coming to the United States”. “It’s an extreme national security vulnerability on the northern border, and it’s one of the things I’ll tackle,” he added.A stone bollard making the US-Canada border on a pavement in Stanstead, Quebec More