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    China faces slower growth in 2025 as tariff risks loom – BofA

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    While the country has benefited from a technology product upcycle and resilient demand from the global south, consumer and investor confidence remains subdued, exacerbated by a struggling property market.BofA analysts, in a research note, revised their forecast for China’s GDP growth to 4.5% in 2025, down from 4.8% in 2024. While the Chinese government continues to target a 5% growth rate for the final year of its 14th Five-Year Plan, achieving this goal will hinge on both the effectiveness of domestic stimulus measures and the external pressures posed by escalating trade tensions, particularly with the U.S..China’s policymakers have signaled a pivot toward more aggressive fiscal and monetary easing. Since late September, a series of modest stimulus measures have been rolled out, including increased fiscal expenditure and efforts to stabilize the property market. Analysts believe these steps reflect a shift in policy orientation, with top leadership prioritizing economic stabilization over structural reforms.In its base case, BofA anticipates that the U.S. will increase tariffs on Chinese goods in 2025, raising rates from 20% to 30% in the second quarter and up to 40% by the end of the year. Should these tariffs materialize, China is expected to counter with a range of policy responses, including widening the fiscal deficit to 3.5% of GDP, increased bank capital injections, and further interest rate cuts. Additionally, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) may deploy its targeted lending tools to support the property sector, which remains a key drag on overall growth.In a more pessimistic scenario, where the U.S. imposes blanket tariffs of 60% on all Chinese exports starting in early 2025, BofA forecasts China’s GDP growth could fall to as low as 3.9%. Such a drastic tariff hike would lead to a sharp contraction in Chinese exports, particularly to the U.S., and would exacerbate the already challenging trade environment. The U.S. may also target a broader range of global trading partners, further dampening global trade.While Chinese authorities are likely to ramp up fiscal expansion and monetary easing in response to such a shock, BofA analysts caution that these measures may not fully offset the negative impact of the tariffs. The risk of deeper disruptions in trade, manufacturing, and domestic demand could further limit growth prospects.Despite the downside risks from escalating trade tensions, there are some factors that could support a more resilient Chinese economy in 2025. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected fiscal measures aimed at subsidizing consumption, as well as a rebound in external demand, particularly from emerging markets. On the flip side, downside risks remain, especially if China’s trading partners tighten restrictions on Chinese exports or if policy measures fall short of expectations.As China approaches the final year of its current economic plan, policymakers are likely to continue prioritizing stabilization measures, but the external environment—especially U.S. trade policy—will be a key determinant of the economy’s path forward. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether China’s recovery can gather momentum or whether it faces another year of subdued growth. More

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    Nordstrom raises lower end of annual sales outlook, sees uncertain environment

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    Shares of the company, which surged about 33% so far this year, fell 1% in extended trading.”While we continue to be pleased with our year-to-date results, the external environment remains uncertain,” Chief Financial Officer Cathy Smith said in prepared remarks.At the end of the third quarter, inventory grew 6%, outpacing sales growth of 5%. The increase was partly due to slower sales in seasonal categories like boots, sweaters and outerwear in certain regions, said the company’s President Pete Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN), adding that they have curated sweaters and luxury fragrances for holidays.The slowing sales trends seen by Nordstrom in late October could indicate “that the holiday outlook is not great,” said Morningstar analyst David Swartz.However, the company beat third-quarter revenue and profit estimates on the back of popular brands including On Running, Hoka and Vuori.Nordstrom’s addition of sought-after brands, along with its focus on digital growth and expanding stores of its off-price brand Rack, has boosted sales ahead of a potentially mixed holiday season.The company expects annual comparable sales growth of 1% to 2%, from prior forecast of flat to a 2% rise.It bucked the trend on tepid spending at department stores by luring in shoppers for categories including women’s apparel, shoes and men’s apparel, while peers such as Macy’s (NYSE:M) and Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS) struggled with patchy demand.Its total revenue of $3.46 billion in the quarter ended Nov. 2, topped analysts’ estimates of $3.35 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.Benefits from strong full-price sales and improvements in variable costs across the business helped expand quarterly gross profit by 60 basis points to 35.6%. Adjusted profit of 33 cents per share beat analysts’ estimates of 21 cents. More

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    Tariff Threats Show Trump’s Commitment to Upending Global Trade

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    The president-elect’s threat to hit Canada, Mexico and China with new tariffs is already rocking business and diplomatic relationships and could topple the trade pacts he signed in his first term.President-elect Donald J. Trump’s threats to impose damaging tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China may ultimately be an opening wager to try to use the power of the American market to persuade other countries to stem a flow of drugs and migrants across U.S. borders.But even if the threat to impose vast tariffs on some of the world’s largest economies is a negotiating tactic, it is also a gambit that has immediate real-world consequences.Before Mr. Trump even sets foot in the Oval Office, his threat to put tariffs on America’s three largest trading partners on his first day in office was reverberating around the world, shocking international businesses, rocking diplomatic relationships and calling into question two big trade deals that Mr. Trump negotiated during his first term.Mr. Trump’s pronouncement late Monday that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10 percent tariff on products from China was immediately denounced by business groups, who said such a move would cause economic harm. Foreign officials rushed to reassure the incoming Trump administration that they had been working to stop drugs and migrants from coming into the United States — while warning that they were also ready to turn around and impose their own tariffs on American exports.Mr. Trump’s threats may have been intended to silence investors and economists who have recently questioned whether the president-elect would go through with imposing the big levies he promised while campaigning. In the run-up to the election, Mr. Trump pledged to put a 60 percent tariff on goods from China and a tax of at least 10 percent on all other imports. Such a move could ignite a global trade war, slowing economies around the world.Whether Mr. Trump’s threats ultimately show his prowess as a deal-maker or simply sow chaos, they are a reminder that the president-elect is eager to upend global relationships to try to secure points for the United States. That includes a willingness to potentially topple the trade pacts that he himself worked to put in place with Mexico, Canada and China during his first term after he used bruising tariffs to force them into making concessions.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Analysts react to Trump’s threat of North American tariffs

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    MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Financial analysts on Tuesday reacted to a threat from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on top trade partners Mexico and Canada when he takes office for a second term in January in a move that could trigger a trade war.Mexico is the country’s top trade partner as of September, representing 15.8% of total trade, followed by Canada at 13.9%. Trump also threatened “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs” on imports from China, the third-largest trade partner at 11.9%.CAPITAL ECONOMICS”We suspect investors may be under-appreciating the impact from Trump’s policies on Mexico,” said Giulia Bellicoso, a markets economist. “We suspect Trump’s tariffs will take a toll on Mexican equities by denting optimism about nearshoring and limiting investment into the country.””We expect Trump to start another trade war,” she added.CIBANCO”We believe Trump’s announcement is a tactic to negotiate with these three countries, his main trade partners, from a position of strength, taking into account that imposing tariffs would also be negative for the U.S. economy,” CIBanco said in a note.”As such the final result of the tariff threat could be less severe once negotiations with the respective parties conclude.”BANCO BASE”The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be reviewed in July 2026, which is expected to raise risk aversion especially in Mexico, as both U.S. and Canadian officials have mentioned that they would be better off with bilateral agreements,” Banco BASE said.It added that the tariff threat “raises the likelihood that Trump’s second term will be more radical, which represents a risk for Mexico’s export sector.””Trump’s threat implies that he could sacrifice the U.S. economy in the short term in order to curb the immigration and drug crises,” the group’s director of economic analysis, Gabriela Siller, added on X.ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN”As in previous instances of tariff threats, the exchange rate will play its role as a shock absorber reflecting the risks stemming from a persistent change in the commercial relationship,” said Armando Armenta, a senior economist at the asset manager.”However, trade linkages among USMCA members run deep, and a cooperation agreement on the control of illegal drug trafficking, labor migration, border protection and goods trade could quickly reverse the move.”MOODY’S ANALYTICS”The Mexican economy will be one of the most exposed to negative effects from the economic policies of U.S. President Trump,” said Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) Analytics, predicting lower growth particularly in the next two years as investment, remittances and the finance sector could all be shaken by the volatility.It said it was cutting its forecast for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth next year to 0.6% from a prior expectation of around 1%, and that it now predicts growth of around 1.6% in 2026 compared to a prior estimate of 2.5%.BANORTEEconomists at Mexican bank Banorte warned about “caution among investors as increased trade and political tensions between the U.S. and other countries loom on the horizon.”VECTOR ANALISIS Trump’s tariff threats against Mexico, Canada and China “could violate free-trade agreements and affect the three economies,” Vector Analisis said in a post to social media. More

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    FirstFT: Biden says Israel and Lebanon accept ceasefire deal

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    Standard DigitalStandard & FT Weekend Printwasnow $29 per 3 monthsThe new FT Digital Edition: today’s FT, cover to cover on any device. This subscription does not include access to ft.com or the FT App.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Mexico hits back as Trump’s tariff threat shakes markets

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    Standard DigitalStandard & FT Weekend Printwasnow $29 per 3 monthsThe new FT Digital Edition: today’s FT, cover to cover on any device. This subscription does not include access to ft.com or the FT App.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts10 monthly gift articles to shareGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print editionEverything in PrintWeekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysisPlusEverything in Premium DigitalEverything in Standard DigitalGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresFirstFT newsletterVideos & PodcastsFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit app10 gift articles per monthExclusive FT analysisPremium newslettersFT Digital Edition10 additional gift articles per monthMake and share highlightsFT WorkspaceMarkets data widgetSubscription ManagerWorkflow integrationsOccasional readers go freeVolume discountFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Standard DigitalFT Weekend Print deliveryPlusEverything in Premium Digital More

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    Fed Minutes Show Options Are Open on Interest Rate Cuts

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    Minutes from a Nov. 6-7 meeting showed that Federal Reserve policymakers favored lowering rates “gradually.”Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting offered little signal about whether officials would cut interest rates at their next gathering, though they suggested that policymakers did expect to continue to lower borrowing costs “gradually” over time.The account of the central bank’s Nov. 6-7 meeting, released on Tuesday, showed that Fed officials still planned to cut interest rates further. But with the job market holding up better than expected and the economy growing at a solid clip, they are in no rush to slash them rapidly.Fed officials thought it “would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” the minutes showed.At the moment, central bankers think that their policy rate — which is set to a range of 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent — is “restrictive,” which means it is high enough to weigh on growth.That’s by design. Policymakers lifted rates to high levels in 2022 and 2023 to make borrowing more expensive, hoping to cool the economy and wrestle rapid inflation under control. But over the past year, inflation has been slowing toward the Fed’s 2 percent goal, and the unemployment rate had begun to nudge higher.Given that, officials began to cut rates in September, then made a second rate cut in November. The goal was to ease off the economic brakes a little, allowing the economy to slow gently without risking a painful crash. When Fed officials last released economic forecasts, in September, policymakers expected to make one final quarter-point rate cut in 2024.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    BoE’s Lombardelli says US trade tariffs would pose risk to economic growth, FT reports

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    The deputy governor said it was too early to quantify the effects of Trump’s proposed tariffs but that BoE interest-rate-setters would discuss trade developments in upcoming meetings, according to the newspaper. “I don’t want to speculate on the specifics but we know barriers to trade are not a good thing, whether they are tariffs or regulatory or others,” Lombardelli said.The comments in the interview came as Trump said on Monday he would sign an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all products coming from Mexico and Canada to the United States.On Monday, the deputy governor said she was more worried about the risk that inflation comes in higher – not lower – than the central bank has forecast as she made the case for only gradual reductions in interest rates.The central bank has lowered rates twice since August, dropping to 4.75% from a 16-year high of 5.25%, less than cuts by the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve due mostly to concerns about inflation pressure in the UK jobs market. More