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BofA and J.P.Morgan have reduced their estimate to 25 bps from 50 bps after the blowout U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday pointed to a resilient economy.Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Macquarie and Deutsche Bank reiterated their forecasts of a 25 bps cut each in November and December.Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the jobs report: Rate cut estimates (in bps) 2024 Nov Dec 2025 Fed Funds Rate at end of 2025 BofA Global Research 25 25 125 3.0%-3.25% (end 2025) Deutsche Bank 25 25 125 3.25%-3.50% Barclays 25 25 75 3.50%-3.75% Macquarie 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through (through June 2025) June 2025) Goldman Sachs 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through (through June 2025) June 2025) J.P.Morgan 25 25 150 3.0% (through (through September 2025) September 2025) UBS Global Wealth 50 100 3.25%-3.50% Management * UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of the jobs data: Rate cut estimates (in bps) 2024 Nov Dec 2025 Fed Funds Rate at end of 2025 BofA Global Research 50 25 125 UBS Global Wealth 50 100 3.25%-3.50% Management Deutsche Bank 25 25 125 3.25%-3.50% Barclays 25 25 75 3.50%-3.75% Morgan Stanley 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through (through June 2025) June 2025) Macquarie 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through (through June 2025) June 2025) Goldman Sachs 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through (through June 2025) June 2025) Citigroup 50 25 J.P.Morgan 50 25 HSBC 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through (through June 2025) June 2025) * UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group More
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A new analysis estimates that the former president’s proposals could grow deficits by as much as $15 trillion over a decade.Former President Donald J. Trump’s economic proposals could inflame the nation’s debt burden while ultimately raising costs for a vast majority of Americans, according to a pair of new economic analyses that are among the most in-depth studies to date of the Republican nominee’s plans.The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that seeks lower deficits, found that Mr. Trump’s various plans could add as much as $15 trillion to the nation’s debt over a decade. That is nearly twice as much as the economic plans being proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris.And an analysis from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a liberal think tank, found that Mr. Trump’s tax and tariff plans would, on average, amount to a tax increase for every income group except the top 5 percent of highest-earning Americans.The two new studies differ in some respects. The budget group looked at the cost of both candidates’ tax and spending plans over 10 years, while the tax institute focused on what the impacts of Mr. Trump’s tax and tariff plans would be in 2026. But together they show that Mr. Trump’s agenda could be both costly and regressive by placing a greater burden on those making the least amount of money.Over the course of his campaign, Mr. Trump has floated a flurry of potentially far-reaching policies, including exempting certain forms of pay from taxes and levying broad tariffs on nearly all imports to the United States. He also wants to extend elements of the tax law he enacted in 2017 that are set to expire after next year.“It’s almost difficult to come up with a tax plan that would raise taxes on most Americans, but still increase the deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars a year — and that’s what this does,” Steve Wamhoff, the federal policy director at I.T.E.P., said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More
1. Futures lowerUS stock futures pointed lower on Monday following a rally in the prior session sparked by a bumper September employment report.By 03:28 ET (07:28 GMT), the Dow futures contract had shed 89 points or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had fallen by 13 points or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had dipped by 46 points or 0.2%.On Friday, the main averages on Wall Street jumped after Labor Department figures showed that the US economy added far more jobs than anticipated last month. The numbers bolstered hopes that the the world’s largest economy was on solid footing heading into the fourth quarter.Although the reading dented projections that the Federal Reserve would roll out another jumbo 50-basis point interest rate reduction at its final meetings this year, it served to boost the idea that the central bank was on course to achieve a so-called “soft landing” — a scenario in which elevated inflation is successfully quelled without a igniting a wider downturn in the economy or jobs market.The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a record closing high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 1.2% and the benchmark S&P 500 grew by 51 points or 0.9%. The increases also helped the major indices eke out a fourth consecutive positive week.2. Data, earnings ahead this weekInvestors will have more economic data to pour over this week, as well as a raft of new quarterly corporate earnings.Thursday’s consumer price index (CPI) data for September is expected to show that price pressures continued to moderate at the end of the third quarter. The data, coming on the heels of Friday’s robust jobs report is likely to shape expectations around the size and pace of Fed rate cuts in the coming months.Producer price inflation data on Friday is also expected to point to tamer inflationary pressures.“CPI for September will be a key data release. If prices rise faster than expected on top of the stronger labor data, chances for the Fed to skip the November meeting will increase,” analysts at UBS said in a recent note.Meanwhile, US third-quarter earnings season is about to kick into gear, in what will be a test for a stock market near record highs and trading at lofty valuations.Major financial firms — including JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) — are all due to report on Friday.3. Rio Tinto confirms approach to acquire Arcadium LithiumMining giant Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) has made an approach to purchase lithium producer Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM), the companies announced in separate statements on Monday.Both groups said the approach was “non-binding,” adding that they would divulge more about a potential deal when they had “news to share.”Should it be completed, the agreement would make Rio Tinto one of the world’s biggest producers of lithium, the ultralight metal essential in powering electric vehicle batteries and power storage. Prior to the announcement, media reports had speculated that Rio may pursue a bid following months of slumping lithium prices due in part to oversupply in China and weaker EV demand.No financial details were provided, but Arcadium Lithium has a market capitalization of around $3.3 billion. Shares in the Philadelphia-based firm surged by more than 24% in premarket trading.Reuters previously reported the discussions on Friday, saying that Arcadium could be valued at between $4 billion to $6 billion or higher.4. Activist investor Starboard Value takes stake in Pfizer – WSJActivist investor Starboard Value has taken a stake in Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) worth around $1 billion as part of a bid to overhaul the pharmaceutical company, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.Starboard has approached two former Pfizer executives — ex-CEO Ian Read and ex-CFO Frank D’Amelio — to help in the process, the paper added, citing people familiar with the matter.The report comes as Pfizer’s leadership team is facing growing calls to turn around its recently flagging performance. The drugmaker was a key COVID-19 vaccine manufacturer during the pandemic, but it has struggled to plug a subsequent sales gap as the health crisis has abated. In late-2023, Pfizer issued a revenue warning and a disappointing 2024 outlook, along with a $3.5 billion cost-cutting drive.Shares in Pfizer, which are now trading below pre-pandemic levels, were higher in premarket dealmaking following the report.5. Oil jumpsOil prices jumped on Monday following hefty gains posted in the previous week, as traders eye ongoing tensions in the Middle East.By 03:28 ET, the Brent contract had risen by 0.5% to $78.47 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded 0.8% higher at $74.94 a barrel.Oil prices last week recorded their biggest weekly gains in over a year on the mounting threat of a region-wide war in the Middle East. Israel has sworn to strike Iran for launching a barrage of missiles at the country in retaliation for the assassination of the leader of Tehran-backed Hezbollah. More
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