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    British home prices to rise faster than inflation, rents even more: Reuters poll

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    LONDON (Reuters) – British home price increases will outpace overall inflation and rental costs will rise even faster although affordability for first time homebuyers will improve, according to a Reuters Nov. 11-21 poll of 21 housing market experts.Higher rent adds to the struggle for buyers to save the deposit needed to secure a mortgage to get on the property ladder as it eats into their disposable income.The average value of a British home was expected to rise 3.1% next year and 4.0% in 2026, barely changed from predictions in a September poll. General inflation will average 2.3% and 2.1% in these two years, a separate Reuters survey showed.House prices rose at the fastest pace since February 2023 in the 12 months to September, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday.But urban rental costs were predicted to increase faster than prices, rising 4-5% next year and so squeezing the budgets of prospective purchasers.”The restriction in supply of rental properties is rising quickly and it is outpacing the shortage of supply in the housing market – and thus rents will outpace house prices axiomatically,” said Tony Williams at advisory firm Building Value.”The supply of rental properties, especially in urban areas is dropping sharply as owners fear greater tax on disposals.”In her maiden budget late last month, finance minister Rachel Reeves increased capital gains tax to 18% from 10%.However, British homebuilders, after battling subdued demand for most of 2024, have witnessed signs of an improvement in recent months, spurred by the Bank of England’s interest rate reductions and supportive policy measures introduced by the Labour government.Giving some respite to buyers needing to borrow to fund their purchase, the BoE cut interest rates earlier this month for a second time this year and is expected to reduce them by another 100 basis points or more by end-2025.That prompted 13 of 15 respondents to an additional question to say affordability would improve over the coming year.”More competitive mortgage rates, albeit not quite as low as some hoped, will help with affordability despite the forecast for modest price rises,” said Marcus Dixon at real estate advisers JLL.In London, seen as a good investment opportunity by foreign buyers, the average home price will rise 3.0% next year and 4.0% in 2026, according to the poll.(Other stories from the Q4 global Reuters housing poll) More

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    Globalisation is not dead — it’s just changed

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    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    UK firms report first contraction since 2023 after budget, PMI shows

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    LONDON (Reuters) -The new British government’s plan to increase taxes on businesses contributed to the first contraction in private sector activity in over a year, a survey showed, after signs the economy was losing momentum even before last month’s budget.The preliminary S&P Global Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, published on Friday, fell to 49.9 in November from 51.8 in October.”The first survey on the health of the economy after the budget makes for gloomy reading,” Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.It is the first time the index has been below the 50.0 no-change level in 13 months.Williamson said the survey suggested the economy was contracting at a quarterly 0.1% pace, but the hit to confidence hinted at worse to come, including further job losses. Sterling fell to stand half a cent lower against the U.S. dollar on the day, with investors almost fully pricing in the Bank of England cutting interest rates to 4% by the end of 2025 from 4.75% now.”For policymakers, the key question now will be to assess whether the potential inflationary hit from higher taxes offsets the potential demand hit from weaker private demand,” Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn)’s chief UK economist, said.Some manufacturers worried about renewed trade tensions once Donald Trump becomes the next U.S president. Others hoped clarity after the vote would unblock investment decisions.The PMI also showed employers cut staffing levels for a second month in a row while the measure of overall new business was the weakest in a year.A weaker outlook for the global economy weighed on companies with the automotive sector in a slump. But the first moves of Britain’s Labour government were also a cause for concern.”Companies are giving a clear ‘thumbs down’ to the policies announced in the budget, especially the planned increase in employers’ National Insurance Contributions,” Williamson said.WEAKENING MOMENTUM Finance minister Rachel Reeves increased the annual burden of social security payments for employers by around 25 billion pounds ($31 billion) a year. Many businesses have said her Oct. 30 budget flies in the face of the government’s pledge to turn Britain into the fastest-growing Group of Seven economy.Momentum was already weak with Britain’s gross domestic product edging up by only 0.1% in the three months to the end of September, according to official data last week, and retail sales fell sharply in October as shoppers worried about the budget.Figures on Thursday showed government borrowing shot past private-sector economists’ forecasts last month, underscoring how reliant Reeves is likely to be on stronger economic growth to fund more spending on public services.However, a measure of consumer confidence published on Friday suggested individuals turned a bit more optimistic this month after they avoided the brunt of the tax increases.Friday’s PMI survey found firms were not replacing departing staff as they braced for April’s rise in payroll costs.Selling prices rose at the slowest rate since the coronavirus pandemic but high rates of growth in input prices and costs related to wages were hurting the service sector.That could worry some interest rate-setters at the Bank of England which is watching prices in the service sector closely.($1 = 0.7987 pounds) More

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    FirstFT: Trump picks Pam Bondi as US attorney-general after Gaetz withdraws

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    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    Why Trump Allies Say Immigration Hurts American Workers

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    JD Vance and others on the “new right” say limiting immigration will raise wages and give jobs to sidelined Americans. Many studies suggest otherwise.As President-elect Donald J. Trump’s second administration takes shape, his plans for a signature campaign promise are becoming clear: mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, including new detention centers, workplace raids and possibly the mobilization of the military to aid in expulsions.Most economists are skeptical that this project will improve opportunities for working-class Americans. Mr. Trump and his allies don’t typically argue for purging undocumented immigrants on economic grounds; the case is more often about crimes committed by migrants, or simply a need to enforce the law.But there is an intellectual movement behind immigration restriction that seeks to reshape the relationship between employers and their sources of labor. According to this rising conservative faction, most closely identified with Vice President-elect JD Vance, cutting off the supply of vulnerable foreigners will force employers to seek out U.S.-born workers.“We cannot have an entire American business community that is giving up on American workers and then importing millions of illegal laborers,” Mr. Vance said in an interview with The New York Times in October, adding, “It’s one of the biggest reasons why we have millions of people who’ve dropped out of the labor force.”Mr. Vance is correct that the share of men in their prime working years who are in the labor force — that is, either working or looking for work — has declined in recent decades, sliding during recessions and never totally recovering. (Women in that age group, 25 to 54 years old, are working at the highest levels on record.)It seems like a simple equation: When fewer workers are available, employers have to try harder to compete for them. Certainly that dynamic played a role in the swift wage growth early in the pandemic, when people willing to do in-person jobs — waiters or nurses, for example — were in especially short supply.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Logging Is the Deadliest Job, but Still an Oregon Way of Life

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    In southwestern Oregon, semi trucks loaded with logs snake along roads through dark, lush forests of Douglas fir. The logging industry has shaped and sustained families here for generations.A steady demand for lumber and a lack of other well-paying jobs in rural parts of the state have made logging one of the most promising career paths.It also comes with grave risk.A glossary of logging terms includes an entry for heavy broken branches that can fall without warning: widowmakers.Inside the Deadliest Job in AmericaMostly employed in densely forested pockets of the Pacific Northwest and the South, loggers have the highest rate of fatal on-the-job injuries of any civilian occupation in the nation, outpacing roofers, hunters and underground mining machine operators.About 100 of every 100,000 logging workers die from work injuries, compared with four per 100,000 for all workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Logs stacked for shipment at a port in North Bend, Ore.“There is a mix of physical factors — heavy equipment and, of course, the massive trees,” said Marissa Baker, a professor of occupational health at the University of Washington who has researched the logging industry. “Couple that with steep terrain and unforgiving weather and the rural aspect of the work, and it leads to great danger.”In the most rural stretches of Oregon, where swaths have been scarred by the clear-cutting of trees, many workers decide the risk is worth it. Most loggers here earn around $29 an hour. And average timber industry wages are 17 percent higher than local private-sector wages, according to a recent report from the Oregon Department of Administrative Services.Logging operates mostly year round, with workers usually bouncing among companies — sometimes called outfits — where pay can vary according to the specific job that needs to be done. But the industry has declined steeply since the 1990s, partly because of competition from other countries, including Brazil and Canada, and years of legal battles as conservationists seek to limit logging in old-growth forests.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Britain’s household energy bills to rise from January

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    $75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

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    China ‘willing’ to engage in Trump dialogue as it backs exporters

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    Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldChina is willing to engage in “positive dialogue” on trade with the US under a Donald Trump administration, senior trade officials said, a day after Beijing introduced a swath of measures to fortify its exporters ahead of anticipated higher tariffs imposed from Washington.At a press briefing on Friday, officials said Beijing would remain “steadfast” in resisting protectionist measures. They also pledged to maintain a stable exchange rate despite expectations that Trump’s policies, which include imposing 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods, could lead to a stronger dollar.“China and the United States share strong economic complementarities . . . China is willing to engage in positive dialogue with the US,” Wang Shouwen, international trade representative and vice-minister of commerce, said when asked about the expected Trump tariffs. “At the same time, it remains steadfast in safeguarding its sovereignty, security and development.” His comments came as Beijing on Thursday announced policies to support its exporters ahead of the start of the Trump administration in January, whose early cabinet appointments indicate it will be particularly hawkish on trade with China.The commerce ministry pledged to guide Chinese banks in channelling more credit to the export sector and help companies with foreign exchange hedging. In addition, it would “promote the development of cross-border ecommerce” and encourage agricultural exports, helping companies to “actively respond to unreasonable foreign trade restrictions”.As part of the measures, China would also “attract and facilitate cross-border exchanges of business personnel” through measures such as visa-free travel.China relies heavily on manufacturing investment and exports to boost an economy that is suffering from weak domestic demand following a prolonged property downturn. The country’s surging exports, which in dollar terms rose 12.7 per cent year on year in October, have ratcheted up tensions with trading partners from the US and the EU to developing countries. Brussels accuses Beijing of failing to do enough to stimulate domestic demand and of not removing barriers for foreign companies operating in China or exporting to the Chinese market. China’s imports declined 2.3 per cent year on year in October.Wang said China’s economy had “already demonstrated remarkable resilience” and that the previous round of tariffs initiated by the US had mainly been borne by American consumers.Some economists have speculated that China could counter Trump tariffs by allowing a depreciation of the renminbi, which would make Chinese goods more competitive in foreign exchange terms. If Trump’s tariffs and tax cuts prove to be inflationary, driving up the prices of goods in the US, that could increase the interest rate differential with China and also drive a weakening of the renminbi, they say. But Liu Ye, director of the international department of the People’s Bank of China, said at Friday’s briefing that the central bank would ensure “the renminbi exchange rate remains fundamentally stable at a reasonable and balanced level”.China’s President Xi Jinping has called for a stable exchange rate as the world’s largest exporter and manufacturer seeks to portray itself as a reliable trading partner. More