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    Tariffs or Deals? Trump Seems Content With Punishing Levies.

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    The president’s supporters portray him as a top dealmaker. But, at least for now, far more trading partners have gotten stiff tariffs than trade deals.Even after President Trump announced sweeping global tariffs in April, some investors and supporters comforted themselves by arguing that the president’s goal was still to open global markets, not close them off.The belief, promoted by Mr. Trump himself, was that he was using his tariffs as a lever to crack open foreign markets and the administration would soon deliver dozens of deals that would increase U.S. exports and help American businesses flourish abroad.Three months later, that optimism is being replaced by doubts that Mr. Trump’s goal was ever to strike the kind of trade deals that would open up markets. When Mr. Trump paused his global tariffs for 90 days in April, he said the delay would give his administration time to reach trade deals with countries across the world. In the intervening months, Mr. Trump boasted about how countries were lining up to talk to the United States and at one point claimed he had reached 200 deals.But the administration has only announced two preliminary deals, with Britain and Vietnam, and the status of the Vietnam deal is now in question. While handshake agreements with the European Union, India, Taiwan and other governments could soon be pending, they are likely to be limited pacts that leave much left to be negotiated. Even when deals have been announced, the administration has left double-digit tariffs in place, with the promise of more levies on foreign products on the way.This week, Mr. Trump sent out nearly two dozen letters notifying countries of the high tariff rates they will be charged as of Aug. 1 if they don’t sign trade deals. That included nations that were in active negotiations with the United States, like Indonesia, Canada, South Korea and Malaysia.With less than a month before the Aug. 1 tariffs kick in, the Trump administration may have the capacity to deal with only a fraction of those countries. Some governments that have sought out meetings with U.S. officials have not been able to schedule them.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The new age of geoeconomics

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    Trump could trigger another market shock, investors warn

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    Treasury posts unexpected surplus in June as tariff receipts surge

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    With government red ink swelling throughout the year, June saw a surplus of just over $27 billion, following a $316 billion deficit in May.
    Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and a 301% gain from June 2024.

    A view shows a bronze seal beside a door at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. 
    Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

    The U.S. government posted a surplus in June as tariffs gave an extra bump to a sharp increase in receipts, the Treasury Department said Friday.
    With government red ink swelling throughout the year, last month saw a surplus of just over $27 billion, following a $316 billion deficit in May.

    That brought the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion, up 5% from a year ago. However, with calendar adjustment, the deficit actually edged lower by 1%. There are three months left in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30.
    A 13% increase in receipts from the same month a year ago helped bridge the gap, with outlays down 7%. For the year, receipts are up 7% while spending has risen 6%.
    The government last posted a June surplus in 2017, during President Donald Trump’s first term.
    Increasing tariff collections are helping shore up the government finances.
    Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and 301% higher than June 2024. On an annual basis, tariff collections have totaled $113 billion, or 86% more than a year ago.

    Trump levied across-the-board 10% tariffs on imports in April on top of other select duties. He also announced a menu of so-called reciprocal tariffs on various U.S. trading partners and has been in negotiations since.
    The Treasury Department noted that the month benefited from calendar adjustments, without which the deficit would have been $70 billion.
    Persistently high Treasury yields again posed a challenge for federal finances.
    Net interest on the $36 trillion national debt totaled $84 billion in June, down slightly from May but still higher than any other category with the exception of Social Security. For the year, net interest — what Treasury pays on the debt it issues minus what it earns on investments — is at $749 billion. Total interest payments are projected at $1.2 trillion for the full fiscal year.
    Trump has been pushing the Federal Reserve to cut short-term rates to help with the financing burden of servicing federal debt. But markets don’t expect the central bank to ease again until September, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he remains leery of the potential impact that tariffs might have on inflation.
    Trump’s own “big beautiful” spending bill that made its way through Congress earlier this month is expected to add about $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s projections.
    Clarification: This story has been updated to clarify the current deficit figures.

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    Does the US have Dutch disease?

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