Economy

Instead of treating tariffs as part of a broader trade policy, President Trump views them as a valuable weapon he can wield on the world stage.President Trump’s allies often describe him as a 40-year devotee of tariffs who, stymied by his first-term advisers, is finally able to put his long-held economic theory into practice.But while Mr. Trump spoke about tariffs off and on before becoming a presidential candidate, he usually described his broader grievance about trade in terms of other countries or companies “ripping off” the United States. It is since Mr. Trump became a candidate in 2015 that he has talked about tariffs in earnest, describing them as a tool that he could easily deploy to rebalance the country’s economic footing.“We are going to have 10 percent to 20 percent tariffs on foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years, we are going to charge them 10 percent to 20 percent to come in and take advantage of our country because that is what they have been doing,” Mr. Trump said in August 2024, one of many comments he made in that race emphasizing he would impose sweeping tariffs if he won, far beyond those in his first term.Mr. Trump’s latest retreat this week from his own self-imposed tariff deadlines underscores the challenge he has faced in treating tariffs as a quick-fix — a tool that he asserts will bring in lots of money for the country while swiftly resetting trade relationships.A review of Mr. Trump’s comments about tariffs over the decades shows he has often been fairly vague on the topic, and only more recently came to describe them as the centerpiece of his approach to trade.Far more frequent and durable has been Mr. Trump’s repeated refrain that other countries are turning the United States into “suckers.” His references to tariffs often came as part of his description of a feeling of national injury that became common as the country’s manufacturing base began eroding. That attentiveness to trade as an issue, even absent a cohesive policy plan, helped Mr. Trump win in 2016.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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The president is deploying the word “deal” liberally, using the term to describe all kinds of trade arrangements, some very limited or one-sided.The Trump administration is seeking “deals” with countries around the globe, telling major trading partners that it is open for negotiations before higher tariffs kick in on Aug. 1.But what constitutes a trade deal these days has become a tricky question. For the president, a trade deal seems to be pretty much anything he wants it to be.While traditional trade deals run into the hundreds of pages and take years to negotiate, Mr. Trump and his advisers have been using the term to refer to much more limited arrangements. That includes the framework deal announced with Britain in May, which was only a few pages long and included many promises that still need to be negotiated.The president also used the “trade deal” term for the handshake agreement announced with Vietnam last week. In a post on Truth Social, he said it would be “a Great Deal of Cooperation between our two Countries” and bring some tariffs on Vietnamese products down to 20 percent. But since then, neither country has yet publicly released any text or fact sheets describing what has actually been agreed upon.The president has also recently taken to referring to the trade truce his officials made with China in June as a “trade deal,” even though the agreement constituted only an agreement by the two governments to roll back the tariffs and other retaliatory measures they had taken against each other in recent months. A trade deal typically makes changes to the rules of trade — but this truce just returned the relationship to the status quo.In a cabinet meeting at the White House on Tuesday, Mr. Trump also used the term “deal” to refer to one-sided arrangements that other countries had not consented to at all: the letters that he has been sending via his social media account informing governments of new tariff rates on their exports.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that respondents in June saw inflation at 3% 12 months from now — the same level it was in January.
While the headline inflation outlook eased, respondents still expect higher prices in several key individual categories.

People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images

Fears earlier this year that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would result in a sharp inflation spike have completely receded, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Tuesday.
The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that respondents in June saw inflation at 3% 12 months from now. That’s the same level it was in January — before Trump took office and began saber-rattling over trade.

The level marked a 0.2 percentage point decline from May and a retreat from the 3.6% peak hit in March and April.
Since April, Trump has gone from slapping across-the-board 10% tariffs plus a menu of so-called reciprocal duties against U.S. trading partner to a more conciliatory approach involving ongoing negotiations.
Thus far, tariffs have yet to show up in most inflation readings. The consumer price index rose just 0.1% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, though the annual inflation rate of 2.4% remains above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Inflation expectations at the three- and five-year horizons were unchanged at 3% and 2.6% respectively, according to the survey.
While the headline inflation outlook eased, respondents still expect higher prices in several key individual categories. The survey pointed to expectations for a 4.2% increase in gas prices, 9.3% for medical care — the highest since June 2023 — and 9.1% for both college education and rent. The outlook for food price increases was unchanged at 5.5%.
Employment metrics also showed some improvement, with a 1.1 percentage decrease in the expectation for a higher unemployment rate a year from now. Also, the average expectation for losing one’s job fell to 14%, a 0.8 percentage point drop and the lowest reading since December.

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A small company in northern Mexico had faced steep competition from China in making straps, plugs, fasteners, grommets, zip ties and clamps. Now, U.S. tariffs have driven a spike in his business.Jorge H. Martínez, the owner of a small Mexican company near the U.S. border, has seen how President Trump’s threats of steep tariffs have upended markets, bent geopolitics and thrown businesses into uncertainty.He’s thrilled about it.As much of Mexico’s business world worried over the nightmare outcomes that tariffs could cause, Mr. Martínez saw an opportunity.“In a crisis, if you’re prepared, you win,” Mr. Martínez, 40, said as he sat in his office above the hum and clank of machines spitting out tiny plastic parts by the dozen. “Truth is, this whole thing benefited us.”He is the chief executive of Micro Partes, which has about 50 employees in the industrial city of Monterrey. They create a tiny universe of straps, plugs, fasteners, grommets, zip ties and clamps — objects that are critical to many production lines but that most people don’t give a second thought to, if they notice them at all. The products include a hollow ring to protect cables as they pass through walls, a lid to cover the heads of the washing-machine screws, and buttons to hold advertisements on shopping carts.Some of the parts that Micro Partes makes. The company used to compete with Chinese suppliers that sold similar products at low prices.Mr. Martínez has long faced steep competition from China, where many of these parts are made cheaply.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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