Economy

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$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

The investment bank anticipates diverging growth paths between the US, Euro area, and China, with the US expected to outperform its developed market peers.1) Global GDP Growth: Goldman Sachs projects solid global real GDP growth of 2.7% year-over-year in 2025, driven by rising real disposable household incomes and loosening financial conditions.The report highlights the role of rate cuts, adding that “US growth is likely to continue outpacing its developed market (DM) peers given its significantly stronger productivity growth.” Core inflation is expected to return to target levels across developed markets by the end of 2025.2) US Economic Outlook: Goldman expects above-consensus US GDP growth of 2.4% in 2025, citing robust income growth and financial easing. Core PCE inflation is forecast to slow to 2.4% by December 2025, “reflecting further cooling in shelter inflation and easing wage pressures but a moderate boost from higher tariffs.”The bank also predicts the unemployment rate will edge down to 4% by the end of the year.3) Federal Reserve Policy: Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts in 2025, with the first 25bp cut arriving in March, followed by additional cuts in June and September.This would bring the terminal rate to 3.5-3.75%. The bank also expects the Fed to taper its balance sheet runoff in January and conclude it by the second quarter of 2025.4) Euro Area Growth: Goldman projects below-consensus GDP growth of 0.8% for the Euro area, reflecting “continued structural headwinds in the manufacturing sector” due to high energy prices and competitive pressure from China.Fiscal tightening and trade policy uncertainties are expected to weigh on growth. Inflation is forecast to return to 2% by the end of the year, with a gradual cooling in services inflation.5) ECB Policy Outlook: The European Central Bank is expected to proceed with sequential 25bp rate cuts, bringing the policy rate to 1.75% by July 2025. However, Goldman notes potential downside risks, cautioning that “faster and deeper cuts” could be necessary if growth and inflation weaken further.6) China’s Economic Slowdown: In China, Goldman Sachs predicts real GDP growth will slow to 4.5% in 2025, as policy easing measures fail to fully counterbalance weak domestic consumption, property market struggles, and the impact of higher US tariffs.“Over the longer term, we remain cautious on China’s growth outlook given several structural challenges, including deteriorating demographics, a multi-year debt deleveraging trend, and global supply chain de-risking,” the Wall Street firm noted.7) US Policy and Geopolitical Risks: Lastly, Goldman advises investors to closely monitor US policy changes and geopolitical developments, particularly if Donald Trump secures a second term.Key risks include higher tariffs on China and autos, lower immigration, tax cuts, and regulatory rollbacks.Goldman warns that while tax reductions could boost growth, “the drag from higher tariffs” might offset those gains, with Europe and China facing larger economic hits. The report also flags risks stemming from the situation in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and US-China relations. More

According to Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) analysts: “A government shutdown only impacts the 25% or so of federal spending that is characterized as ‘discretionary.’” Programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, categorized as “mandatory” spending, continue unaffected.During a shutdown, federal agencies cease non-essential functions while essential services, including public safety and national security, remain operational. Wells Fargo explains that civilian federal employees, totaling 2.3 million, and active-duty military personnel, numbering 1.3 million, face interruptions. “Essential” employees work without pay, and “non-essential” employees are furloughed. All workers eventually receive back pay after the shutdown concludes.The bank says that the economic impacts of shutdowns have historically been modest but noticeable. Wells Fargo noted that the “direct hit to economic growth in the 2013 and 2018–2019 government shutdowns was a relatively modest few tenths-of-a-percentage point.” While GDP growth rebounded post-shutdown, some economic activity was not fully recovered. The bank adds that indirect effects, such as reduced consumer confidence and delayed investments, are harder to quantify but exist.The analysts also noted that shutdowns delay crucial economic data releases, such as employment and inflation reports. Following the 16-day 2013 shutdown, Wells Fargo highlighted that “the Department of Labor’s monthly Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index reports” faced delays of approximately two weeks, causing a ripple effect in economic planning.Wells Fargo warned that prolonged shutdowns add uncertainty to economic forecasts, with broader implications for policy decisions. “Economic disruption from a prolonged government shutdown and an extended delay of key government data releases would inject additional uncertainty into the policy outlook and, by extension, the economic outlook,” says Wells Fargo.  More

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – The Bank of Israel is expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged for an eighth straight policy meeting this week, although analysts believe a rate cut at the subsequent meeting in late February is possible should inflation pressures ease.Of the 13 economists polled by Reuters, 12 said they expected the central bank to keep its benchmark rate at 4.5% when the decision is announced on Monday at 4 p.m. (1400 GMT). One predicted a quarter-point reduction to 4.25%.Driven largely by supply issues, Israel’s annual inflation rate had accelerated to a 10-month high of 3.6% in August but it has since eased to a four-month low of 3.4% in November.That trend looks to reverse itself somewhat, particularly in January after a host of costs rose – including a 1 point rise in the value added tax (VAT) to 18%, increases in other taxes, and rises in electricity, water and food prices that will bring the inflation rate close to 4%.”We are some way from the next cut, as the Bank of Israel will likely require conclusive evidence of inflation moderating before a cutting cycle recommences,” said Goldman Sachs economist Johan Allen.But after January, inflation expectations are expected to drop and may allow the central bank to ease its policy rate.”In the second half of February break-even inflation will fall,” said Bank Hapoalim (TASE:POLI) chief economist Victor Bahar.”I would say there are high chances” of a rate cut at the Feb. 24 meeting, he said.In keeping rates steady on Nov. 25, the central bank had cited high inflation while military conflicts were keeping economic growth weak.Israel has since forged a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while its war in Gaza following the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas has become far less intense despite 100 hostages remaining held in Gaza. The Houthis have fired missiles almost daily from Yemen but overall, Israel’s risk premium – a key concern in the Bank of Israel – has improved significantly and the shekel has also gained against the dollar the past few months.It might still be too early for a rate cut, said Yonie Fanning, chief strategist at Mizrahi Tefahot (TASE:MZTF) Bank. “The way it seems right now, holding off for another month and a half seems like a better idea,” Fanning said. “The larger risk for a central bank is to lose control over prices.”He noted that keeping rates high will not impact the supply side or the competitive level at the business sector that are currently pushing prices upwards. “But they will tame consumer demand, and eventually anchor inflation,” he said.In addition to the rates decision, the central bank will also publish updated 2025 economic estimates, while governor Amir Yaron will hold a news conference at 4.15 pm on Monday.The bank’s economists currently estimate economic growth of 3.8% in 2025 and inflation at a 2.8% rate, within the government’s 1-3% annual target. More

The compilation spans innovative footwear, versatile apparel, advanced tech, and unique equipment designed to cater to enthusiasts ranging from casual gym-goers to outdoor adventurers.In the footwear category, Nike (NYSE:NKE) Pegasus Plus, praised for its lightweight ZoomX foam and Flyknit upper, and New Balance’s “snoafer,” a sneaker-loafer hybrid, have caught the attention of consumers.Hoka’s winterized Kaha 2 Frost Moc GTX and Onitsuka Tiger’s revitalized Mexico 66 also highlight the trend of blending functionality with style, meeting the needs of both performance and everyday wear. Meanwhile, Altra’s minimalist Escalante 4 caters to natural runners seeking wider toe boxes and zero-drop designs.The apparel section underscores the intersection of fashion and function. Lululemon’s Lightweight Linerless Tennis Dress exemplifies the resurgence of tennis-inspired clothing, while Alo’s Glacier Puffer blends utility with vibrant styling. For men, SKIMS introduces its Classic Straight Leg Pant, marking the brand’s expansion into men’s loungewear. Emerging brands like Bandit Running and Vuori are gaining traction, with pieces such as the Wool Terry Quarter Zip Pullover and Halo Essential Wideleg sweatpants reflecting the shift towards athleisure that prioritizes comfort without sacrificing aesthetics.Fitness technology continues to evolve, with products like the Oura Ring 4 and Peloton’s Strength+ app setting benchmarks. The Oura Ring offers comprehensive biometric tracking, synthesizing sleep, activity, and readiness data. Peloton’s Strength+ extends its fitness platform into strength training, seamlessly integrating gym equipment with tailored workout programs. Balance training gains prominence with the Mobo Board, which targets stabilizer muscles and joint health, underscoring the broader shift toward holistic fitness approaches.Among equipment highlights, the Carv 2 Ski Coach (NYSE:TPR) uses AI to provide real-time feedback for skiers, while the L-TEK EX PRO 2 Dance Pad revives rhythm-based workouts. Products like the Lifepro BioRemedy Infrared Sauna Blanket offer accessible wellness solutions, promising benefits such as improved cardiovascular health and stress reduction. Similarly, Ritual’s Skin & Stress Relief Set and the hydration-focused Owala FreeSip bottle reflect a growing consumer interest in self-care and personalized health solutions.The list also hints at broader market trends, including the rise of sustainable and multifunctional products. Brands like Sporty & Rich and Johnnie-O highlight the growing appeal of preppy, versatile apparel, while the incorporation of robotics, AI, and app connectivity signals a move toward more personalized and immersive fitness experiences. More

These questions, compiled in a detailed note, explore the uncertainty and complexities of navigating policy under the Trump administration. Each question represents considerations for governance, market impact, and broader economic implications.The confirmation of Trump’s nominees is the first major hurdle. While most are expected to be confirmed, a few controversial figures face potential resistance. Nominees like RFK Jr. at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) carry specific market implications, especially concerning healthcare sector regulations.Mass deportation policies are poised to redefine immigration dynamics, but the scale and effectiveness remain uncertain. Analysts expect a marked decline in net migration but note that operational and legal constraints may temper the administration’s ambitions.Trump’s tariff agenda presents another point of contention. While threats of sweeping tariffs may serve as negotiating tools, the administration is likely to implement selective tariffs, particularly targeting China. These moves are expected to have market repercussions, especially in tariff-exposed sectors.Tax policy under the new administration will also be a focal point. Republicans aim to extend Trump-era tax cuts, but narrow congressional margins may necessitate compromises, including spending cuts in areas like healthcare and energy subsidies. A rollback of clean energy tax credits and reforms to Medicaid are among potential cost-saving measures being debated.Healthcare is a prominent theme, with the appointment of RFK Jr. raising questions about vaccine policies, drug pricing, and public health reform. Initial signs suggest a less disruptive approach than feared, with attention likely focused on institutional reforms rather than confrontational regulatory changes.The administration’s deregulatory ambitions, epitomized by the Department of Government Efficiency, face legal and procedural barriers. While certain industries, such as traditional energy and financial services, may benefit from regulatory rollback, broad-scale deregulation may be slower than anticipated due to judicial challenges.In antitrust policy, Trump’s picks for regulatory roles signal a pro-business stance. However, a populist influence, especially in sectors like Big Tech, cannot be entirely ruled out, reflecting internal divisions within the Republican agenda.The note underscores fiscal sustainability as a long-term challenge. Despite promises of economic growth and deficit reduction, analysts at Wolfe Research project deficits to remain high, with federal spending increasingly constrained by debt servicing costs.Each of these issues flag the uncertainties and challenges ahead. Wolfe Research emphasizes the need for vigilance and strategic planning as these questions evolve, noting that definitive outcomes may not emerge until later in the year. More

The General Administration of Customs said the measures would enhance the integration of rail, air, river and sea links in China’s west, state media reported.The measures are to include enhancing international aviation hubs in cities including Chengdu, Chongqing, Kunming, Xi’an and Urumqi, while developing comprehensive bonded zones, and integrating these with ports and other transport links. A number of ports would also be built and expanded.China has long sought to bolster the economic heft of its western regions, which have markedly lagged coastal provinces. But ethnic tensions in such places a Xinjiang and hard-line security measures Beijing says are needed to safeguard national unity and border stability, have drawn criticism from some Western nations.China’s western regions comprise around two-thirds of the country’s land area and include regions such as Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Xinjiang and Tibet.China’s Politburo last year called for a “new urbanisation” of western China to revitalise rural areas, expand poverty alleviation efforts and strengthen energy resources. Efforts have also been made to increase linkages to Europe and South Asia through trade corridors including rail freight routes. More