Economy

Judging by current data, you’d think there’s literally a job out there for anyone who wants one. Looking deeper under the hood, though, tells a different story.
Since the beginning of 2024, job openings have outnumbered hires by more than 2.2 million a month, according to BLS data that points to “ghost jobs” that never seem to get filled.

Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on September 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Judging by current data, you’d think there’s literally a job out there for anyone who wants one. Looking deeper under the hood, though, tells a different story.
The level of job openings as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for years has shown there are at least as many available positions as there are unemployed workers.

But comparing the openings with actual hirings shows that not all those jobs are being filled.
Not even close, in fact: Since the beginning of 2024, job openings have outnumbered job hirings by more than 2.2 million a month, according to BLS data. That points to an ongoing problem with “ghost jobs” that never seem to get filled.
“The U.S. labor market looks deceptively strong on paper. Millions of openings suggest opportunity, but many are illusions,” said Jasmine Escalera, career expert at MyPerfectResume, an employment assistance platform that released a report this week on the shadow employment market. “The ghost job economy inflates hope, wastes job seekers’ time and clouds the data [that] policymakers rely on to steer the economy.”
Job openings have generally been on the decline since peaking above 12 million in March 2022, when opportunities outnumbered available workers by better than 2 to 1. In August, the latest month for which data is available because of the government shutdown, openings totaled more than 7.2 million while hires were just 5.1 million. The ratio of vacancies to workers was about even.

To be sure, the picture isn’t as simple as comparing the two numbers.

The postings number represents the total stock of jobs, while hirings are the flow of people hired during a particular month. So a job can get posted across multiple months without being filled, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the companies advertising those positions don’t intend to hire someone.

Potential inventory
Moreover, some companies will post jobs just to keep an inventory of potential workers for positions that may open in the future.
Finally, the openings-to-hire ratio has fallen over the past few years, from 1.8 to 1 at the peak of the job opening cycle to the current level around 1.4 to 1, indicating fewer “ghost jobs” out there.

One issue affecting the gap: the changing labor pool as the U.S. has tightened its immigration standards.
Small business owners report the toughest time filling open positions since the Covid pandemic while noting that 88% of applicants for jobs lack the required skills, according to a National Federation of Independent Business report Tuesday.
However, the issue has drawn more serious attention in recent months as the labor market has begun moderating and net hiring has slowed to a crawl. At the same time, official government data is unavailable due to the shutdown in Washington, D.C.
Job seekers have become frustrated at not being able to find new positions. Mobility has decelerated, with the “quits rate” falling more than 30% from that March 2022 peak of job openings, during what was called the “Great Resignation.”
A petition on Change.org seeking to clamp down on companies advertising ghost jobs has garnered nearly 50,000 signatures.
There are real impacts on a policy level: Federal Reserve officials watch BLS job openings numbers closely for clues about how tight the labor market is, so having unreliable data clouds their vision.
“For job seekers, that means wasted time. For policymakers, it means distorted data. For employers, it raises serious credibility issues,” Escalera said. “Until postings more accurately reflect actual hiring, workers will continue to chase jobs that don’t exist, and trust in the labor market will erode.” More

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Shoppers look at a canned fish display Nov. 4, 2025 at the Market 32 Supermarket in South Burlington, Vermont.
Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

As stock market investors support economic sentiment, some economists wonder if a looser labor market could pull the rug out.
The University of Michigan’s widely-followed consumer sentiment index slid more than 6% in November, nearing all-time lows and down about 30% from a year ago. Respondents were concerned that the long-running federal government shutdown would drag on the economy, according to survey director Joanne Hsu.

But at least one group bucked the sour mood: Those with the most stock holdings.
The individuals with sizable stock market wealth reported an 11% improvement in sentiment, which Hsu tied to the stock market’s recent rally to all-time highs.

Conventional wisdom is that wealthier consumers will keep spending as long as they feel good about their own circumstances and see their investments growing, bolstering the economy and corporate profits. But now other economists are concerned that federal labor data, once it resumes, may paint a darker picture of the economy and catalyze a market sell-off that would throw cold water on rosy outlooks.
“It comes down to the labor market,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust. “If you start getting negative job prints, the jig is up.”
K-shape economy
Economists told CNBC that the stock market is behaving as if the economy is “K”-shaped, with the best-off thriving while the lower end struggles.

Investors are counting on the higher-end of the “K” continuing to fare well and spending part of their discretionary income. The group’s resilience even in the face of high tariffs this year and the brief April swoon in stocks has eased concern about the likelihood of the economy tipping into a recession anytime soon.
RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, for example, said that while he doesn’t expect top end consumers to crack and cause a recession, the Michigan survey data underscores “severe market stress” on lower-end consumers that don’t own stocks and aren’t benefiting from the artificial intelligence trade.
“Elevated equity valuations partially mask the ongoing structural transformation of the economy down market — that does not favor those who work in traditional industries,” Brusuelas said. “It points to [a] very highly segmented economy with different realities based on which economic decile you live in.”
In other words, how much money you make and how many investments you hold.
Housing wealth too
The best-off consumers also likely benefit from rising home prices on their properties and, in many instances, low mortgage rates obtained during the Covid pandemic, according to Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial’s chief economist. That is yet another cause for optimism in this group — even if this year’s stock market rally loses steam, he said.
The benchmark S&P 500 has climbed more than 16% in 2025, excluding dividends, and is on track for its third straight winning year. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite has jumped nearly 22%, underscoring continued excitement around AI.

Stock chart icon

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite in 2025

Roach said the expected business benefits from President Trump’s “big beautiful bill” justify some market froth, and the promise of profits from AI can lure investors into buying stocks with high valuations.
Eye on labor
How long the economy will continue to depend on the top cohort of consumers may come down to the state of the labor market, Roach said.
With less immigration under the Trump administration, it may become easier to return to the workforce, as long as demand holds up. That in turn can drive up household incomes and help the economy sidestep a possible recession down the road, Roach added.
But Tilley of M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust said warning signs are flashing. Among them, data showing small businesses shrinking payrolls. Even before the government shutdown suspended the latest jobs reports, it seemed like nonfarm payrolls were showing signs of weakness.
If employment softens, it will be harder for investors to bank on the top end of the “K”-shaped economy holding firm. The idea that wealthy consumers can single-handedly prop up demand feels “reverse engineered” to rationalize why the stock market has jumped to records despite uncertainty in the job market, said Tilley, an economic adviser to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve for almost six years before joining Wilmington Trust.
“History shows: You start getting negative job prints, the economy and the market are going to come right after that,” Tilley said. “We’re 100% focused on the labor market, and we see a lot of chinks in the armor there.” More

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