Economy

The Conference Board’s measure for future expectations tumbled 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years.
The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction.

Shoppers walk near a Nordstrom store at the Westfield UTC shopping center on Jan. 31, 2025 in San Diego, California.
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Consumer confidence dimmed further in March as the view of future conditions fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
The board’s monthly confidence index of current conditions slipped to 92.9, a 7.2-point decline and the fourth consecutive monthly contraction. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 93.5.

However, the measure for future expectations told an even darker story, with the index tumbling 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80 level that is considered a signal for a recession ahead.
The index measures respondents’ outlook for income, business and job prospects.
“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board.
The survey comes amid worries over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs on U.S. imports, which has coincided with a volatile stock market and other surveys showing waning sentiment.
The fall in confidence was driven by a decline in those 55 or older but was spread across income groups.

In addition to the general pessimism, the outlook for the stock market slid sharply, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting higher equity prices in the next year. That marked a 10 percentage point drop from February and was the first time the view turned negative since late 2023.
The view on the labor market also weakened, with those expecting more jobs to be available falling to 16.7%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose to 28.5%. The respective February readings were 18.8% and 26.6%.
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Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.An unnamed large employer’s late supply of earnings information to the UK statistics agency risks skewing the country’s main official measure of wage growth, raising doubts about data that guides monetary policy. The Office for National Statistics said in a little-noticed footnote to its release of earnings figures last week that “as an exception”, it was working on revisions that could go further back in time than usual, “to allow for late and updated returns we received from one business to be included, as part of improving the quality of these estimates”. Including the mystery employer could have “a small impact at whole-economy level”, the ONS said, as the agency promised a full explanation when it published the revisions. The earnings figures issued by the ONS are based on a survey of businesses, and are closely watched by the Bank of England when taking interest rate decisions.The ONS also said last week it was reviewing the way it adjusts earnings figures to account for seasonal fluctuations — an exercise it conducts periodically — and that “if required” it would implement revisions to its entire historical series of wage data in “the early part of 2025”. The revisions are potentially important because the strength of UK wage growth on almost any measure has been a puzzle for analysts, at a time when the economy and jobs market are stagnant. The latest ONS figures showed average weekly earnings — excluding bonuses — were 5.9 per cent higher in the three months to January than one year earlier.Private sector wage growth was running even higher, at 6.1 per cent, after apparently accelerating at the end of 2024, even as employers cut back on hiring after tax rises on businesses outlined in chancellor Rachel Reeves’ October Budget. The BoE, which has become increasingly vocal about its concerns over the quality of the UK’s official statistics, drew attention last week to discrepancies between the ONS earnings figures and other data that suggested pay growth, while still strong, had been easing. The BoE also focused attention on recent volatility in GDP data, ongoing problems with official labour market data and “the importance for policymaking of high-quality and reliable official data across the full range of economic and labour market statistics”. The earnings figures have not been affected by a drop in response rates by households to the ONS labour force survey that underpins the jobs data.But Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at the consultancy Oxford Economics, said that on top of well-publicised issues with jobs, population, trade and price data, other problems with ONS statistics were emerging “that are yet to be officially acknowledged”. These included “extreme” swings in retail sales figures around the turn of the year, and an emerging pattern of GDP growth tailing off in the middle of the calendar year, which suggested problems with seasonal adjustments, he claimed. Goodwin said the earnings figures are “arguably the most important series for the Bank of England”, as they offer an indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy.The ONS, which first flagged the potential revisions in February, said it could not yet be more precise about when they would be implemented, or identify the employer concerned.However, the agency noted that both its survey-based data and separate figures based on tax records showed similar, “relatively strong” wage growth. The ONS said it regularly reviewed its approach to seasonal adjustments as new data became available, and that one-off impacts such as the Covid pandemic “need to be carefully considered and accounted for in any detailed analysis”.  More

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldCredit rating group Moody’s has warned on the US fiscal outlook, saying President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could hamper the country’s ability to cope with a growing debt pile and higher interest rates.The rating agency said on Tuesday that America’s “fiscal strength is on course for a continued multiyear decline”, having already “deteriorated further” since it assigned a negative outlook to America’s top-notch triple A credit rating in November 2023.While Moody’s highlighted the “extraordinary” economic resilience of the US and the role of the dollar and the Treasury market as backbones of the global financial system, its analysts also warned on Tuesday that the policies of the second Trump administration — including sweeping tariffs and plans for tax cuts — could do more harm than good for government revenues.“The potential negative credit impact of sustained high tariffs, unfunded tax cuts and significant tail risks to the economy have diminished prospects that these formidable strengths will continue to offset widening fiscal deficits and declining debt affordability,” Moody’s said. “In fact, fiscal weakening will likely persist even in very favourable economic and financial scenarios,” they added.Moody’s warning comes amid a furious debate on Capitol Hill and inside the Trump administration over how to place the US on a more sustainable fiscal path. Analysts and investors have warned that the US’s rapidly rising debt and deficit could ultimately dent demand for Treasuries, which form the bedrock of the global financial system. Pimco, one of the world’s biggest bond managers, said late last year that “sustainability questions” had made it hesitant to purchase long-term Treasuries. The federal budget deficit reached $1.8tn for the fiscal year ending September 30, up 8 per cent from the previous year. When Moody’s lowered its outlook on the US’s credit rating to negative just over two years ago, it highlighted sharply higher debt servicing costs and “entrenched political polarisation”. America’s credit rating is watched closely because it plays a critical role in the country’s debt affordability — with higher ratings and positive outlooks typically translating into lower borrowing costs. Moody’s said on Tuesday that US “debt affordability remains materially weaker than for other triple A-rated and highly rated sovereigns”, with even the most positive economic and financial scenarios highlighting “increasing risks that the deterioration in US fiscal strength may no longer be fully offset by its extraordinary economic strength”.The rating agency conceded that it expected the world’s biggest economy to “remain strong and resilient”. But its analysts added that “the evolving US government policy agenda on trade, immigration, taxes, federal spending and regulations could reshape parts of the US and global economy with significant long-term consequences”.While Trump has repeatedly stated his preference for lower US borrowing costs, the Fed last week held interest rates steady in a range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent — with its policymakers predicting roughly two quarter-point cuts over the course of 2025. Moody’s said it anticipated a federal funds rate of 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent by the end of the year. More

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.The price of copper is likely to set new records this year at $12,000 or more a tonne, according to several of the world’s largest trading houses, lifted by growing global demand and the threat of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.Trading houses Mercuria and Trafigura and hedge fund Frontier Commodities said at the Financial Times’ Commodities Summit in Lausanne on Tuesday that they expected the price on the London Metal Exchange to move higher this year.The London copper price hit a record of almost $11,000 in May 2024. After falling back late last year, it has risen in 2025 and was trading at about $10,000 on Tuesday. “I think we’ll see higher than $12,000,” said Kostas Bintas, global head of metals and minerals at Mercuria. The copper market was “experiencing tightness”, he added.Bintas said huge US imports of copper had reshaped the market, which is normally dominated by Chinese demand. He estimates that about 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper is at present on its way to the US. Traders have rushed to import copper into the US ahead of the potential imposition of tariffs on the metal following an investigation that Trump has instigated into “the threat to national security from imports of copper”.The threat of US tariffs has driven a widening gap between the London and New York prices for the metal. This spread had risen on Tuesday to more than $1,350 a tonne. Levies of 25 per cent have already been introduced on all US aluminium and steel imports.Demand for copper should also expand as a result of developed economies such as the US and EU needing to upgrade their electricity grids, said traders.This investment would require huge amounts of the metal, said Aline Carnizelo, managing partner at Frontier Commodities, who also believes copper could test $12,000.Copper is used in a wide variety of industries, including technology, construction and renewable energy, and is key for electrical wiring and power grids.Graeme Train, head of metals and minerals analysis at Trafigura, said copper could hit a new high but cautioned that the global economy was “a little fragile” and that some uncertainty remained in the market about whether the US would impose tariffs on copper.Nevertheless, US metal buyers continue to seek out copper, since “there is not a quick solution” to increasing domestic supplies, he added.Copper stocks in Comex warehouses in the US rose to close to their highest level in February since 2019. Copper in those facilities is stored on a so-called duty paid basis, meaning any taxes and levies on the metal must have been settled. As a result, it would not be hit with additional tariffs.The volume of copper waiting to leave the LME network of warehouses is also close to a four-year high.Meanwhile, commodities exchange ICE Futures Europe said on Tuesday that it planned to launch futures contracts for key battery metals this year. The group will launch eight new index settled, monthly contracts covering lithium carbonate, hydroxide, spodumene and cobalt. ICE Futures Europe president Chris Rhodes told the FT’s Commodities Summit that the development of a liquid secondary market was important for the “bankability” — or ease of financing — of cobalt and lithium projects, with the prices of both metals having been hit by oversupply. “Often what you hear from end users is, ‘I’ll be able to do more physical deals if I have a hedge contract,’” he said.In October last year, rival CME Group, which also competes with the LME, launched futures on spodumene, while it also has a cobalt contract. More

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldDonald Trump is living up to his “tariff man” brand. On Monday, he appeared to invent a new one altogether. Secondary tariffs — a mash-up of secondary sanctions and tariffs — will be imposed by the US on any nation that buys oil or gas from Venezuela. The import duties will take effect from April 2, the day when the world expects to hear what the US administration’s plans are for its headline agenda of reciprocal levies.One Must-ReadThis article was featured in the One Must-Read newsletter, where we recommend one remarkable story each weekday. Sign up for the newsletter hereHow will it work? Trump says America would apply a 25 per cent tariff on buyers of Venezuelan crude “on top of existing tariffs”. How it will be applied and enforced is unclear. But for the US president, the details are beyond the point (America was in fact the largest importer of oil from the South American country last year, based on ship tracking data). Trump reckons the mere threat of losing access to the US market is enough to get other nations to act as he pleases. “It’s quite clever, and could actually work in this situation,” says former UK trade department official Allie Renison, now at consultancy SEC Newgate. “But it’s a concerning move if it becomes precedent and other countries acting in bad faith follow suit.”The White House accuses Venezuela of “purposefully and deceitfully” sending “tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals” to the US. Oil is a lifeline for President Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian regime: it accounts for over four-fifths of its exports. Other than the US, most of the rest goes to China, India and Spain.Mess around and find out is in effect what Trump is telling buyers of Venezuelan oil. Analysts reckon most nations will “self-sanction”, by clamping down on Venezuelan oil supplies to, well, avoid finding out. The art of the deal here is creating a supposed win-win situation. The calculation is that lost revenues will force Maduro into accepting more Venezuelan deportees from the US, while also raising tariff income from anyone not complying with the secondary sanction.Trump has form here. In January, the president threatened Colombia with 25 per cent tariffs, among other sanctions, for its refusal to take deported migrants. Colombia’s government backed off. After pulling America out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Trump reintroduced secondary sanctions on those doing business with the country too.Extortion-by-tariff will be a feature of the president’s plans to reshape the international order in his favour. Trump is less keen on financial sanctions, which he has suggested risk undermining the dollar (although his chaotic tariff agenda appears to be doing that anyway.) Though the transactional approach of dangling access to US markets to gain concessions might seem to be potent on a deal-by-deal basis, for Trump’s broader objectives for America, tariffs are a blunt instrument.Venezuelan oil comprises a small portion of the international market, but the most immediate impact has been a jump in global oil prices. That’s probably not what US consumers, who are already fearing higher inflation, wanted to hear. Nor is it consistent with the administration’s objective to lower pump prices, though it could be congruent with its plans to encourage US producers to “drill baby drill”.Who knows? In the leaked Signal messages between senior White House staff, vice-president JD Vance worried air strikes on Houthis could lead to a “spike in oil prices”.That’s the risk of reading too much into Trump’s tariff plans. Beyond trying to coerce other nations, there isn’t a coherent strategy here. Indeed, if the administration continues to use tariffs as its economic tool of choice, faith in doing business with America will fade (as it has started to already). In that case, over time, its tariff threats will lose their bite as well. More