Economy

LONDON (Reuters) – Monetary easing by central banks across developed and emerging economies trundled along in November with markets warily gearing up for a new year that could bring tectonic shifts to the global policy making backdrop.Four of the six central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies that held meetings in November lowered their lending benchmarks. Central banks in New Zealand and Sweden each shaved 50 basis points off their interest rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England delivered 25 bps cuts.Policy makers in Australia and Norway decided to leave interest rates unchanged, while their peers in Switzerland, Japan, Canada and at the European Central Bank held no rate setting meetings. The outcome of the U.S. election, which will see a return of Donald Trump to the White House on January 20, is expected to fuel fresh trade tensions that could boost U.S. inflation and curtail growth. The latest moves come ahead of some potentially sizeable shocks for the global economy, with politics set to become increasingly unpredictable, said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.”The name of the game in 2025 is now uncertainty, especially in the U.S. and Europe,” said Rossiter. “Central banks are going to have to adapt their strategies quickly.”The latest moves across G10 central banks brings the year-to-date tally of rate cuts to 650 bps, nearly matching the 2020 total of 655 bps, after major central banks delivered no cuts between 2021 and 2023. Across emerging markets, 12 of the Reuters sample of 18 central banks in developing economies held rate-setting meetings in November. South Korea, Mexico, South Africa and the Czech Republic delivered 25 bps cuts each while China, Indonesia, Turkey, Malaysia, Israel, Hungary and Poland kept rates unchanged. Brazil extended its rate hiking cycle, lifting its key interest rates by 50 bps.S&P Global Ratings emerging market chief economist Elijah Oliveros-Rosen said that a changing outlook of fewer rate cuts from the Fed in the wake of the U.S. election would shape policy making in developing economies. “We also expect greater caution among most major EM central banks, and we’ve therefore toned down our expectations for their interest rate cuts in 2025,” Oliveros-Rosen said in a note to clients. “On balance, we expect a stronger U.S. dollar against most EM currencies in 2025 than in 2024.”The latest moves in emerging markets took the tally of cuts since the start of the year to 1,810 bps across 46 moves – outstripping the total of 1,765 bps of easing in 2022, after 945 bps in 2023. Total (EPA:TTEF) hikes for emerging markets so far in 2024 stood at 1,350 bps.   More

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(Reuters) – The sale of Americans’ private information by “data brokers” to scammers, foreign adversaries, abusive domestic partners and other unscrupulous actors could face stringent new proposed regulations, the top U.S. consumer agency for financial protection announced on Tuesday.If adopted, the proposed new rules would subject “data brokers” to oversight by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, requiring them to comply with credit reporting laws, thereby reining in a practice officials say poses threats to national security and public safety.”The scale of this problem is staggering,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra told reporters ahead of the announcement, citing research according to which some data brokers explicitly advertised the sale of senior national security officials’ personal information.The proposal also comes in the final weeks of President Joe Biden’s administration, meaning its fate will be determined after President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged sweeping cuts to spending and regulations, takes office in January. Unlike other regulators, CFPB officials have decided to continue rulemaking in the hopes that some new consumer protections may survive the change in administration, Reuters reported last week.CFPB officials said they believed the subject nevertheless enjoyed “broad bipartisan recognition.”Under the proposal, companies that obtain and sell consumers’ personal financial information – such as income data, net worth and credit ratings – would be regulated like credit bureaus and required to maintain safeguards against the misuse of data, to ensure its accuracy and allow consumers to access their own information.The proposal flows from a broader Biden administration concern with personal data use. The Federal Trade Commission in 2022 sued an Idaho company, saying its mobile phone geolocation data could be traced to abortion clinics, churches and addiction treatment facilities.CFPB officials say the unrestricted sale of such data for pennies per person enables espionage, allows thieves to target financially vulnerable people and allows potentially violent actors to target law enforcement officials and others.Officials traced the 2020 murder of a federal judge’s son to a man who had purchased her home address, according to the CFPB.The proposal will be subject to public comment until March 2025. More

Most economists agree that the possible tariffs would impact growth, though views diverge on the effect on consumer prices.Some argue the U.S. trade barriers will push up the value of the dollar, making imports of key commodities more expensive, while likely retaliation from Europe will also raise costs.Cipollone, speaking in a pre-recorded interview at a financial conference, took the opposing view.”All this put together makes me think that we will have a reduction in growth but also a reduction in inflation,” he said. This argument is increasingly relevant since some of the more dovish members of the ECB’s rate-setting Governing Council have been saying that the bank was now at risk of undershooting its 2% inflation target and should therefore cut rates more quickly. Cipollone said that U.S. tariffs would weaken the economy, which translates into lower consumption and thus reduced pressure on prices. Meanwhile, Chinese producers shut out of the U.S. market would be looking for new buyers, selling in Europe at discounted prices.While oil imports could be more expensive given a stronger dollar, Trump also wants to support U.S. energy production, which could mean greater supply just as overall growth cools. These factors will then more than offset the inflationary impact on prices. More

1. Futures little changed after record close for S&P 500, Nasdaq U.S. stock futures were little changed after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended the previous session at record highs, while the Dow ended slightly lower, despite surpassing the closely watched 45,000 level at one point.By 04:03 ET (09:03 GMT), the Dow futures contract was up 17 points, S&P 500 futures inched up three points and Nasdaq 100 futures were down two points.Investors were looking ahead to JOLTS jobs data later in the day, the first in a series of reports on the labor market this week ahead of Friday’s November non-farm payrolls report.Traders are closely monitoring how the labor market is faring ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting amid expectations for another rate cut.The economic calendar also includes speeches by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.On the earnings front, results are due from Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) and Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) after the bell.2. Musk pay deal struck down – againTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares were down around 1.4% in premarket trade after a Delaware judge upheld a previous ruling against CEO Elon Musk, rejecting his appeal to reinstate a controversial compensation package worth approximately $56 billion.The package, the largest in U.S. corporate history, had been under scrutiny for its size and structure.Tesla said in a post on social media platform X, which is owned by Musk, that it plans to appeal the ruling. Musk, in a separate X post, called the ruling “absolute corruption.”“There were undoubtedly a range of healthy amounts that the board could have decided to pay Musk,” Delaware Chancery Court Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick said in her decision. “Instead, the board capitulated to Musk’s terms.”3. France on brink of government collapseGrowing fears that Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government is teetering on the brink of collapse have roiled markets in France, the euro zone’s second-biggest economy, which is under pressure due to its rising debt levels.Barnier is expected to face no-confidence motions as soon as Wednesday after opting to push through a controversial budget bill without a vote in parliament.His proposed budget which seeks to curb France’s spiralling public deficit through 60 billion euros ($62.9 billion) in tax hikes and spending cuts, has been opposed by politicians on both the left and far right.Bond investors fear that the collapse of the government would mean efforts to cut borrowing fall by the wayside.4. Trump reiterates opposition to U.S. Steel takeoverPresident-elect Donald Trump on Monday reiterated his opposition to Nippon Steel’s (TYO:5401) $15 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel (NYSE:X), vowing to block the deal once he takes office.”I am totally against the once great and powerful U.S. Steel being bought by a foreign company, in this case Nippon Steel of Japan,” Trump wrote on his social-media platform Truth Social.”I will block this deal from happening. Buyer Beware!!!”Nippon Steel, which is aiming to finalize the transaction before Trump’s inauguration on January 20, responded to his comments on Tuesday, reiterating its commitment to invest at least $2.7 billion into U.S. Steel’s unionized facilities, preserve union jobs, and introduce technological innovations.The deal also faces opposition from the Biden administration and influential labor unions.5. Oil prices edge higher, OPEC meeting eyedOil prices pushed higher on Tuesday, but looked set to remain rangebound as energy traders awaited the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting later this week.By 04:03 ET (09:03 GMT), crude oil WTI futures climbed 0.6% to $68.75 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 0.6% to $72.52 a barrel.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, has been looking to unwind production cuts by the first quarter of 2025. However, the outlook for surplus supply has put pressure on prices. The group accounts for about half of the world’s oil production.“Should OPEC forge ahead with prior plans to increase supply, we believe the scales would tilt heavily towards pronounced oversupply in oil”, analysts at Macquarie said in a note Sunday. More

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