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SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar was firm on the last trading day of the year, poised to clock strong gains in 2024 against most currencies as investors prepared for fewer U.S. rate cuts and the incoming Trump administration’s policies.The dollar’s ascent, buoyed by rising Treasury yields, has pushed the yen toward its lowest levels since July, when the Japanese authorities last intervened. On Tuesday, it was at 157.02 per dollar, on course for a 10% drop in 2024, its fourth straight year of decline against the dollar.Japanese markets are closed for the rest of the week, and with most markets closed on Wednesday for the New Year’s Day holiday, volumes are likely to be razor thin.That has left the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency versus six other major units, at 108.06, not far from the two-year high it touched this month. The index has risen 6.6% in 2024 as traders cut back on bets of deep rate cuts next year.The Federal Reserve shocked markets earlier this month by cutting their interest-rate forecast for 2025 to 50 basis points of cuts, from 100 basis points, wary of stubbornly high inflation.Goldman Sachs strategists though expect three rate cuts from the Fed next year, confident that inflation will still trend lower. “We see the risks to interest rates from the second Trump administration’s policies as more two-sided than widely assumed,” they said in a note.The dollar has also been boosted by expectations President-elect Donald Trump’s policies of looser regulation, tax cuts, tariff hikes and tighter immigration will be both pro-growth and inflationary and keep U.S. yields elevated.”Although the markets’ initial reaction to Trump’s re-election to the White House back in November was euphoric, they now seem to be more carefully analysing the incoming administration’s priorities,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer at Global CIO Office.DOLLAR CASTS SHADOWThe possibility of U.S. rates staying higher for longer has put a dent on most other currencies, especially those in emerging markets as traders worry about the stark interest rate difference between the United States and other economies.The euro is set for a 5.7% decline against the dollar this year, with traders expecting the European Central Bank to be sharper with its cuts than the Fed. On Tuesday, the single currency was steady at $1.04025, but staying close to the two-year low of $1.03315 it touched in November.In what turned out to be another turbulent year, the yen breached multi-decade lows in late April and again in early July, sliding to 161.96 per dollar and spurring bouts of intervention from Tokyo.It then touched a 14-month high of 139.58 in September before giving up those gains and is now back near 157, with traders watching out for signs of intervention from Tokyo. The Bank of Japan held interest rates steady at this month’s meeting, and governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank was scrutinising more data on next year’s wage momentum and awaiting clarity on the new U.S. administration’s economic policies.A Reuters poll taken earlier this month showed the BOJ could raise rates by end-March and interest rates markets are pricing in only a 41% chance of a rate rise in January.Sterling was little changed at $1.2545 in early trading, on course for a 1% fall in 2024. The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars were tentative on the day, sticking close to their two-year lows. The Aussie last fetched $0.62155, set for a drop of 8.7% this year, its weakest yearly performance since 2018. [AUD/]The kiwi was at $0.5637, poised for a decline of nearly 11% in 2024, its softest performance since 2015.In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin inched higher at $92,370, well below the record high of $108,379.28 it touched on Dec. 17. The world’s best known and biggest cryptocurrency is set for a bumper 117% rise for the year. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stock exchanges will close on Thursday, January 9 in observation of a national day of mourning in honor of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who died on Sunday at the age of 100.The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq announced the closures on Monday, a customary gesture to honor deceased presidents.President Joe Biden directed January 9 to be a day of national mourning for Jimmy Carter, the 39th U.S. President and recipient of the 2002 Nobel Peace prize for his humanitarian work.The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association has recommended an early close on Jan 9 for the U.S. bond market at 2:00 p.m. ET/1900 GMT. More

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Monday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, rose 2.2% last month to 79.0 – the highest since February 2023 – from 77.3 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, would rise 0.9% after increasing 1.8% in October.Pending home sales rose 6.9% from a year earlier. On a regional basis, the Midwest, South and West saw monthly increases while contract signings slipped in the Northeast. All four regions posted annual gains.The increase in contract signings in November dovetailed with a second straight rise in existing home purchase completions last month reported previously by NAR. That earlier report showed the inventory of homes for sale in November was up by nearly 18% from a year earlier.”Consumers appeared to have recalibrated expectations regarding mortgage rates and are taking advantage of more available inventory,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. “Mortgage rates have averaged above 6% for the past 24 months. Buyers are no longer waiting for or expecting mortgage rates to fall substantially. Furthermore, buyers are in a better position to negotiate as the market shifts away from a seller’s market.”Indeed, the rate on popular 30-year-fixed-rate mortgages has climbed in the past two months to the highest since July at 6.85%, according to Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC), essentially counter-acting the interest rate cuts delivered since September by the Federal Reserve. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which is the top influence in determining rates on most home loans, has climbed by roughly a percentage point since September. That has occurred as bond market investors have grown concerned about how policies favored by President-elect Donald Trump – such as tariffs, tax cuts and immigration crackdowns – might feed into higher inflation. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States has sent $3.4 billion in additional budget aid to Ukraine, giving the war-torn country critical resources amid intensifying Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday.Yellen said in a statement the direct budget assistance, provided in coordination with the U.S. Agency for International Development and the State Department, marked the final disbursement under the 2024 Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act.A U.S. official said the funding brings the total in U.S. budget aid to Ukraine to just over $30 billion since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Most of those funds are used to keep Ukraine’s government running by paying salaries to teachers and other state employees. Earlier on Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden announced $2.5 billion in additional security assistance for Ukraine, which is separate from the direct budget aid. Nearly three years into the war, Washington has committed $175 billion in total assistance for Ukraine.President Joe Biden’s administration has been racing to shore up support for Ukraine before Republican President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, given his public questioning of military aid and vows to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office.Trump wants Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to make a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the nearly three-year-old Ukraine war. Some of his fellow Republicans, who will control both houses of the U.S. Congress starting next month, have also cooled on sending more aid to Kyiv.Yellen said continued economic aid for Ukraine was crucial to allow it to maintain government services and continue to defend its sovereignty, warning against moves to cut funding.”Ukraine’s success is in America’s core national interest,” she said, vowing to continue to pressure Moscow with sanctions and to help position Ukraine to achieve a just peace. “We must not retreat in this effort,” she said.She stressed that U.S. budget aid for Ukraine has been and remains conditioned on reforms aimed at strengthening law enforcement, improving the transparency and efficiency of government institutions, and bolstering anti-corruption efforts.The latest funding came on top of the $20 billion U.S. portion of a $50 billion Group of Seven loan for Ukraine that Treasury transferred to a World Bank intermediary fund for Ukraine earlier this month. Those funds are backed by profits earned on frozen Russian sovereign assets.Biden on Wednesday said he had asked the Defense Department to continue its surge of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, after condemning Russia’s Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system and some of its cities.   More

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At 05:36 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 78 points, or 0.18%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 12.75 points, or 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 43.75 points, or 0.20%.Equities tend to do well in the last five trading days of December and into the first two days of January, a phenomenon dubbed the Santa Claus rally. The S&P 500 has gained 1.3% on average during the period since 1969, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.The benchmark index eked out marginal gains last week, with analysts pointing to a strong run earlier in the year that sent valuations soaring. The index has been trading in a bull market for over two years and is poised to end its second consecutive year with gains of more than 20%. Much of this year’s rally was fueled by optimism around interest rate cuts, artificial intelligence integration boosting corporate profitability and on expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could spur economic growth. However, some analysts expect Trump’s policies to be inflationary, with yields on U.S. Treasury notes across the curve pinned at multi-month highs. [US/]Since early December, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note has risen to touch its highest level since May 2024. On the day, it was slightly lower.Investors tempered their expectations on the total number of interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 after the institution struck a cautious tone at its meeting earlier in the month.They now expect the central bank to deliver its first rate reduction in May next year, according to the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool. Later in the week, investors will scrutinize the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing activity survey for December and a weekly report on jobless claims, ahead of a key employment report due in the following week.Growth stocks weakened in premarket trading. Tesla (O:TSLA) dropped 1.6%, Meta (NASDAQ:META) dipped 0.5%, while chip company Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) lost 0.6% and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) slipped 0.8%.South Korea ordered an emergency safety inspection of its entire airline operation system after the country’s worst air disaster over the weekend involving a Boeing (NYSE:BA) plane. Boeing’s shares were down 4.5%. Trading is expected to be impacted by thin volumes in the run up to the New Year holiday on Wednesday and is likely to remain subdued until Jan. 6. More

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