Economy

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Unifor, which represents more than 3,600 members at the railroad’s Council 4000 and Local 100 committees, said members voted “overwhelmingly” in favor of the strike action. “CN is committed to reaching negotiated agreements with Unifor that are good for employees, customers, and the economy,” said Ashley Michnowski, a spokesperson for Canadian National. Unifor, which represents CN Rail’s car technicians and heavy duty mechanics among other workers, said negotiations with the railroad will resume from Nov. 30 to Dec. 8 in Montreal. The union had initiated negotiations with CN Rail in September, with bargaining priorities that included higher wages, addressing concerns about the pension plan and job security for its members. More

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(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Donald Trump’s pick to be U.S. Treasury Secretary proved to be a balm for the bond market, while the dollar followed yields lower in a move poised to influence trading in Asia on Tuesday.The choice of prominent investor Scott Bessent made late on Friday, rippled through markets on Monday, after days of speculation over who Trump would choose to be essentially the highest-ranking U.S. economic official. Treasury yields, which move opposite to prices, fell sharply, with the benchmark 10-year yield touching its lowest level in more than two weeks. Treasury yields had been rising at a torrid pace, partially due to concerns that Trump’s presidency would dramatically widen the federal deficit.But Bessent was seen as someone who might moderate any negative impact of Trump’s fiscal policies. Some strategists said his nomination was a relief as he understands markets and his appointment could reduce the severity of potential tariffs, which are favored by Trump.The dollar index, which has surged since early October, pulled back sharply on the day. A weaker dollar could offer some relief to emerging market countries that have borrowed heavily in the U.S. currency, amid concerns about a rising dollar under Trump.  The removal of uncertainty over the Treasury secretary position combined with lower bond yields boosted equities. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe was up about 0.4%, while the U.S benchmark S&P 500 closed up 0.3%.     The spotlight was on U.S. small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 hitting a record intraday high for the first time in three years.Some investors say small caps could be in the sweet spot, as Trump’s push for lower taxes and reduced regulations favors smaller companies, while the Fed’s lowering of interest rates also stands to help smaller companies that tend to rely more on debt financing.Not everything was rosy in equities, as Chinese shares fell amid concerns about a trade war hurt risk appetite. The Shanghai Composite Index touched its lowest in about a month.Elsewhere, signs of a ceasefire deal between Israel and militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon prompted a pullback in oil prices and gold, with the Treasury secretary news also dulling the precious metal’s allure.With the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. coming on Thursday, trading was expected to thin out, even as central bank decisions in New Zealand and South Korea and inflation data in the U.S. were set to provide some excitement later in the week.Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Singapore manufacturing output (Oct)- Hong Kong export/import data (Oct)- Fed meeting minutes More

Markets looked favorably on President-elect Donald Trump’s presumptive nominee for Treasury secretary, with equity futures rising and Treasury yields falling.
The move to put hedge fund magnate Scott Bessent in the position now held by Janet Yellen sent a message that Trump wants someone with strong market credentials as well as a similar philosophy for the role.
“President Trump has some very good ideas, but I guarantee you, the last thing he wants is to cause inflation,” Bessent told CNBC earlier in November.

Scott Bessent, founder and chief executive officer of Key Square Group LP, during an interview in Washington, D.C., June 7, 2024.
Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The U.S. stock market appeared to cheer President-elect Donald Trump’s presumptive nominee for Treasury secretary, who told CNBC earlier in November that he sees an era of strong growth and lower inflation ahead.
Stock market futures rose and Treasury yields tumbled early Monday following the announcement late Friday that Trump would pick Scott Bessent, a familiar Wall Street figure, to take on his administration’s most important economic role.

The move sent a message that Trump wants someone with strong market credentials as well as a similar philosophy for the role.
“This pick should please markets given Bessent’s in-depth understanding of financial markets and the economy – in particular the bond market the Trump administration will need to keep on [its] side if it is to advance its agenda successfully,” Sarah Bianchi, Evercore ISI’s chief strategist of international political affairs and public policy, and colleagues wrote in a note.
Bianchi added that markets “couldn’t have done much better” than Bessent.
Since Trump’s victory earlier this month, in which he also carried a red wave that flipped the Senate to Republicans and retained GOP control of the House, markets have been mostly positive, albeit volatile. In particular, bond yields have scaled higher, with some interpreting the move as anticipating another leg up for inflation while others see it as traders pricing in stronger growth.

Stock chart icon

10-year Treasury

In a CNBC interview the day after Trump’s victory, and before the announcement that he would be nominated, Bessent said he expected the new president’s agenda to help bring down inflation while simultaneously stimulating growth.

“The one thing he doesn’t want is a replay of what we’ve just got under Biden-Harris,” Bessent said.
“President Trump has some very good ideas, but I guarantee you, the last thing he wants is to cause inflation,” he added. “I don’t think the bond market is worried about Trump 2.0 inflation. I think what you’re seeing is a healthy move geared toward a growth impetus.”

Though some investors worry that the tariffs Trump has talked about implementing could cause inflation, Bessent said he favors that they be “layered in” so as not to cause anything more than short-term adjustments.
“If you take that price adjustment coupled with all the other disinflationary things President Trump is talking about, we’re going to be at or below the 2% inflation target” that the Federal Reserve prefers, he said.

Moving in threes

Bessent favors a three-pronged approach that addresses worries over the ballooning national debt and deficits: growing the economy at a 3% rate, knocking down the budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product — less than half where it stands now — and adding three million barrels a day in oil production.
Wall Street commentary was almost universally positive.
Perpetual market bull Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, noted that “Bessent lends substantial economic and market credibility to the incoming cabinet.”
“In our view, this reinforces the market’s perception of a ‘Trump put’ — that is, the incoming White House wants equities to perform well,” Lee wrote.
Early indications are that Bessent, who had a long history of supporting Democratic causes before backing Trump during his first run in 2016, should face little trouble getting confirmed.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., signaled perhaps some trouble from the political left, saying in a statement over the weekend that Bessent’s “expertise is helping rich investors make more money, not cutting costs for families squeezed by corporate profiteering … I do not know if Mr. Bessent will transfer his loyalty from Wall Street investors to America’s workers, but I am willing to work with anyone to advance the interests of working families.”
However, Washington policy expert Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, said Bessent should “sail to confirmation” and would join current Sen. Marco Rubio, whom Trump intends to nominate as secretary of State, “in the moderate wing of the Cabinet, with support in both parties.”
Bessent “could play an important counterbalance to Commerce Secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, as Trump pursues an aggressive trade agenda,” wrote Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James.
“The more President Trump’s agenda can be achieved through economic growth versus significant budget cuts, we would expect the market to view that as a positive,” Mills said. More

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BENGALURU (Reuters) – India’s economy likely grew at its slowest pace in one-and-a-half years in the three months to end-September as weak consumption offset a strong recovery in government spending, which for years has helped drive growth, a Reuters poll found.Asia’s third-largest economy grew more than 8.0% in the fiscal year to end-March but has since slowed sharply as skyrocketing food inflation drives up the cost of living and forces households to cut spending.Private consumption accounts for about 60% of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) but sales of items from cars to biscuits have plummeted.Passenger vehicle sales recorded their first decline in 10 quarters and sales of two-wheelers experienced a sharp slowdown, while lacklustre quarterly earnings from fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) company Hindustan Unilever (NS:HLL) showed the country’s consumption story was under strain.Gross domestic product in the world’s fastest-growing major economy was forecast to have increased 6.5% year-on-year in the July-September period, down from 6.7% in the preceding three months, according to the Nov. 18-25 poll of 54 economists in which forecasts ranged from 6.0% to 7.1%.That would mark the slowest growth in six quarters and a third consecutive quarter of slowing growth. Economic activity, as measured by gross value added (GVA), was forecast to show a more modest 6.3% expansion.”A host of high frequency indicators showed signs of slowing,” said Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ.”Manufacturing and mining growth likely slowed during the quarter. Passenger vehicle sales put up a poor show, reflecting weakness in private consumption. While government capex provided some lift, the uptick in overall public spending excluding interest payments was not as sharp as expected.”The Reserve Bank of India (NS:BOI) (RBI), citing a rebound in private consumption, expects growth of 7.6% in the current quarter to end-December when the nation of more than 1.4 billion celebrates major festivals like Dussehra and Diwali.However, most economists in the Reuters poll said that was too optimistic.”I suspect (the RBI) is underestimating the length and severity of the current cyclical slowdown in growth, which is taking place amid a continued tightening in both fiscal policy and monetary policy,” said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.Economists downgraded their growth forecast for this fiscal year to 6.8% and for next year to 6.6%, from 6.9% and 6.7%, respectively, in a survey last month.India needs consistent economic growth above 8% to generate enough jobs for the millions of young people entering the workforce. More