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TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s exports fell for the first time in 10 months in September, data showed on Thursday, a worry for policymakers as any prolonged weakness in global demand will delay plans for a further interest rate hike.Soft demand in China and slowing U.S. growth have been cited by analysts as a key risk factor for Japan’s export-reliant economy and one that could complicate the central bank’s path toward fully exiting years of ultra-easy monetary policy.Total exports dropped 1.7% year-on-year in September, Ministry of Finance data showed, missing a median market forecast for a 0.5% increase and following a revised 5.5% rise in August.Exports to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 7.3% in September from a year earlier, while those to the United States were down 2.4%, the data showed.Imports grew 2.1% in September from a year earlier, compared with market forecasts for a 3.2% increase.As a result, Japan ran a trade deficit of 294.3 billion yen ($1.97 billion) for September, compared with the forecast of a deficit of 237.6 billion yen.Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has highlighted external risks such as U.S. economic uncertainties in his recent dovish commentary, emphasising that policymakers can afford to spend time scrutinising such risks in timing the next interest rate hike.While the BOJ is expected to keep interest rates steady at its Oct.30-31 meeting, it will roughly maintain its forecast for inflation to stay around its 2% target through March 2027, according to sources familiar with its thinking.Nevertheless, a quarterly central bank survey suggested the headwinds from the slowing global economy have yet to be fully felt by manufacturers, with the business mood holding up and companies retaining robust spending plans.That opens up the risk that things could get much bumpier in the coming months, especially as worries over slow global growth join nervousness around the outcome of the U.S. presidential election next month and an escalating conflict in the Middle East.($1 = 149.5400 yen) More

The Australian dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6691, rebounding from a one-month low, while three-year bond futures fell 6 ticks to 96.21.Markets pared the chance for a first interest rate cut in December to 30% from 46% before the data.Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment surged 64,100 in September from August, when they rose a downwardly revised 42,600. That was well above market forecasts for a 25,000 rise, and most of the gains were in full-time employment.The jobless rate held relatively steady at a downwardly adjusted 4.1%, from 4.2% the previous month, where it has generally been over the past six months, noted the ABS.The participation rate edged up to another all-time high of 67.2%, while hours worked rose another 0.3%.”Job growth has been remarkably strong over the past year, defying a marked slowdown in economic growth,” said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia.”We do think they support our view that a rate cut is further away than the market currently thinks. We still see the first RBA rate cut coming in Q2 2025. “Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics, noted that there are still large numbers of people entering the labour force and finding work in a range of industries. The RBA has held its policy steady since November, judging the current cash rate of 4.35% – up from 0.1% during the pandemic – is restrictive enough to bring inflation to its target band of 2-3% while preserving employment gains.However, underlying inflation has remained sticky and the labour market is only slowing gradually, a reason that the RBA has all but ruled out a rate cut this year, lagging other major central banks in kick starting an easing cycle. More

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar held near an 11-week high on Thursday as uncertainty over the upcoming U.S. election looms and as resilience in the U.S. economy added to bets the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive in easing rates versus its peers elsewhere.The highlight of the Asia day will be a press conference in China at 0200 GMT focused on measures to prop up its beleaguered property sector, which will be key in getting the economy back on steadier footing and determining whether the rally in Chinese markets can continue.Ahead of the press conference, the offshore yuan was last 0.04% higher at 7.1328 per dollar.The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan, fell 0.02% to $0.6665, languishing near a one-month low hit in the previous session.The Aussie has been weighed down in part by investors’ disappointment over the lack of further stimulus details from China, which has also capped further upside in Chinese stocks.”Keeping a very close eye on China, waiting for yet another press conference which is probably going to be long in rhetoric and short in detail,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY).”Our sense is that there’s not a lot that we can get out of today … it’s very unlikely that we’ll get serious numbers. What we are looking for, though, is a little bit more colour in terms of what this objective of stabilising the housing market means.”In the broader market, the dollar was on the front foot, after having scaled an 11-week top against a basket of peers in the previous session.Sterling was flat at $1.2991, languishing near a two-month low hit on Wednesday due to weaker-than-expected UK inflation data, while the yen struggled near the 150 per dollar level and was last at 149.47.The euro eased 0.02% to $1.0859, ahead of a monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank later on Thursday where it is expected to deliver another rate cut.The dollar has not only drawn support from a run of upbeat data on the U.S. economy which has in turn caused traders to scale back their expectations of Fed rate cuts, but also on the possibility of a victory by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at next month’s election.”His core policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes would produce a more inflationary outlook in the U.S., diminishing prospects for aggressive Fed rate cuts over the cycle,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie.The dollar index was last steady at 103.51, having peaked at 103.60 in the previous session.Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar ticked up 0.07% to $0.6061, after hitting a two-month low on Wednesday as data showed domestic inflation returned to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1% to 3% in the third quarter, keeping the door open for the central bank to continue aggressively cutting rates. More

(Reuters) -Global miner BHP beat first-quarter iron ore output estimates on Thursday, spurred by easing of bottlenecks at its Western Australia operations amid efforts by China to revive its grappling property market and faltering economic growth.The world’s largest listed miner over the last year has ramped up the South Flank mine to full production capacity and streamlined its port operations for its Western Australian iron ore business. The ramp-up comes at a time when mining rivals including Vale and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) are moving to expand their supplies. Vale plans to further lift its production, while Rio’s Simandou mine will begin production next year. BHP, which is diversifying into potash, said the $10.5 billion Jansen Stage 1 project was 58% complete. The miner’s upbeat iron ore production update comes as China, the commodity’s largest purchaser, has been announcing a slew of stimulus measures to support its downbeat economic recovery. BHP said iron ore output from Western Australia on a 100% basis was 71.6 million metric tons in the three months to Sept. 30, beating a Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 70.7 Mt, according to a Macquarie note.”Upcoming stimulus (from China) is likely to focus on relieving local debt, stabilising the property market and bolstering business confidence,” said CEO Mike Henry. BHP, which has been aiming to expand its copper operations, recorded a 4% rise in the metal’s output for the quarter, reflecting improved performance at its Escondida mine in Chile. Analysts at Citi said Escondida output rose on higher grades and throughput at the Chilean mine. Earlier this year, BHP made a $49 billion bid for British copper major Anglo American (JO:AGLJ), which did not materialise. But BHP joined hands with Lundin Mining (OTC:LUNMF) to take over Filo Corp, gaining access to more copper assets. Copper, used widely across the globe, is an ideal conductor of electricity and easily malleable, qualities that have made it widely popular for use in wiring, engines, construction equipment, electronics and other devices.BHP’s shares were up 0.3% at A$43.67 in early trade. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Rent inflation will continue to put pressure on consumers for some time to come, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland said in a report on Wednesday, in a finding that may point to ongoing challenges for the Fed to get overall inflation back to 2%. “Our baseline forecast implies that [Consumer Price Index]rent inflation will remain above its pre-pandemic norm of about 3.5% until mid-2026,” the Cleveland Fed economists said in their report. One of the key forces keeping rent inflation kicking is the gap that has been seen between new rents and those for existing leases. The analysts say it will take time for what have been outsized gains in new rentals to pass through to existing rents. The statement announcing the report notes this gap is “notably wider” than where it was before the pandemic started, when it stood at just above 1%.”Our estimated rent gap in September 2024 is just under 5.5%, suggesting that there remains a substantial amount of potential rent inflation to be passed through to continuing tenants,” it said.The possibility rent inflation will remain sticky could complicate the effort to get inflation down after its pandemic surge. Fed officials are broadly confident that inflation is retreating back to 2% and because of that they embarked last month on the start of a rate cut campaign that could run for some time, as officials work to normalize monetary policy. Central bankers and economists expect easier times in housing to help that process along. In a note on Oct. 10, Omair Sharif of research firm Inflation Insights said so far this year annualized rent growth through September stood at 4.6% versus 6.8% in 2023. “That is a solid pace of deceleration in rent growth,” he said. “Falling rent inflation should bring down the housing component of the overall price indexes over time,” St. Louis Fed leader Alberto Musalem said on Oct. 7. That led him to say he sees inflation hitting the 2% target as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index “over the next few quarters.”Speaking on Oct. 8, Boston Fed chief Susan Collins said the gain in shelter prices “is the stickiest component and remains above its pre-pandemic average.” But she added “there are good reasons to think that this stickiness in current shelter inflation reflects existing rents still catching up to new market rents,” noting slower new rent price increases point to an eventual slowing in increases for rental lease renewals. She also said slower new rent increases reflects a less frenzied job market. More

Last month, the U.S. central bank cut the overnight rate by half a percentage point, citing greater confidence that inflation will keep receding to its 2% annual target.The overnight rate, which guides how much interest banks pay each other and affects rates for consumers, is now at 4.75%-5.00%.Markets are currently pricing in a 94.1% chance for a cut of 25 bps at the Fed’s next meeting, with only a 5.9% chance the central bank will hold rates steady, according to CME’s Fedwatch Tool.Goldman Sachs also said it expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 bps at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, and noted it sees sequential 25-bps cuts until the policy rate reaches 2% in June 2025. More

The company posted an adjusted profit of $2.13 per share in the July-September quarter, compared with estimates of $2.15, according to data compiled by LSEG.WHY IT’S IMPORTANTU.S. new vehicle sales fell during the third quarter due to fewer selling days, weaker consumer spending and higher interest rates, which impacted demand for automotive coatings.Production at factories in the United States held steady at weaker levels in September, although new orders improved. CONTEXTThe Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania-based firm is a global supplier of paints, coatings and specialty materials. It is the largest coatings company in the world, followed by Sherwin-Williams (NYSE:SHW).At PPG’s automotive OEM coatings unit, which sells paints, coatings and adhesives to the auto industry, organic sales declined by double-digit percentage.However, performance coatings sales during the third-quarter rose compared to last year led by aerospace coatings. BY THE NUMBERSNet sales at PPG’s performance coatings segment rose to $2.92 billion in the third quarter, compared with $2.88 billion a year earlier.Meanwhile, sales at its industrial coatings segment fell 6% to $1.65 billion from the same quarter a year ago.KEY QUOTE”Automotive OEM coatings organic sales decreased more than initially forecasted…due to lower U.S. and European industry build rates, which deteriorated notably late in the quarter, partly offset by PPG growth in China and Mexico,” PPG said. More