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    Jay Powell thinks rates don’t have far to fall

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    Are Trump’s tariffs legal? With Jennifer Hillman

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    ‘Partners and friends’: Xi strikes conciliatory tone as he meets Trump in South Korea

    The much-anticipated Trump-Xi meeting to address trade and tariff concerns is underway.
    The two leaders met for a photo-op at the Gimhae Air Base in Busan, South Korea, before the meeting.

    U.S. President Donald Trump greets Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a bilateral meeting at Gimhae Air Base on October 30, 2025 in Busan, South Korea.
    Andrew Harnik | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Chinese President Xi Jinping said Thursday that Beijing and Washington should be “partners and friends,” at his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on addressing trade and tariff concerns.
    The meeting concluded in about one hour and 40 minutes, according to Chinese state media, with the two leaders shaking hands before leaving the venue without making public comments.

    This is the first time the two leaders met in person since Trump began his second term in January.
    “We are gonna have a very successful meeting,” Trump said at the photo-op with Xi before walking into the meeting. While calling Xi “a very tough negotiator,” Trump played up his ties with the Chinese leader, saying that “we’ve always had a very good relationship.”
    When asked whether the two leaders would finalize a trade deal at the meeting, Trump said “could be. We’ll have a great understanding.”
    In his opening remarks, Xi said it was “normal for the two leading economies of the world to have frictions now and then,” while urging both sides to work together and “ensure the steady sailing forward of the giant ship” of bilateral relations, according to a statement released by the Chinese foreign ministry.
    Xi also lauded Trump’s efforts aimed at solving regional conflicts while stressing China’s role in promoting peace talks on various issues. The Trump administration earlier this month had hinted that China played a limited role in Thailand and Cambodia ceasefire talks.

    “Although the meeting itself is not about peace, [Xi] is mostly trying to create an atmosphere conducive to a deal,” said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

    The high-stakes meeting comes as tensions between the world’s two largest economies have been on the boil this year. The latest escalation came this month, with Beijing  export controls and Washington threatening to ban software-powered exports to China. 
    The U.S. in recent days has shared details about deals they hope to achieve with China – from restricting the flow of fentanyl to the U.S. to TikTok’s divestiture from its Beijing-based parent ByteDance. Tariffs, tech curbs and rare earths are also on the table for discussion.
    Beijing had been more circumspect about the prospects of an agreement, but in a possible sign of thawing relationship, China bought its first cargoes of U.S. soybeans in several months, Reuters reported Wednesday. 
    The Trump-Xi meeting may be more of a “tactical pause than a strategic breakthrough” with both sides contesting with disagreements core to the U.S.-China rivalry, including technology controls, supply chain and security frictions, said Han Shen Lin, China director at advisory firm The Asia Group.
    “A temporary truce is better than an uncontrolled trade war,” Lin added.
    Xi is in South Korea – his first state visit in 11 years – from Thursday to Saturday to attend the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Gyeongju.
    Shortly before the meeting started, Trump said in a post on Truth Social that he had instructed the Pentagon to restart nuclear weapons testing, claiming that the U.S. has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, followed by Russia and China.
    The remarks were “bold and disruptive,” Lin said, adding that Trump was “forcing the room to focus on U.S. leverage” ahead of the meeting. “If it lands a trade win, it’s genius; if it poisons the well, we’re in for frostier summits ahead.”
    Investors are cautiously watching for headlines from Busan as the trade war between the U.S. and China has kept investors on edge. Global markets soared at the start of the week on growing optimism that the U.S. and China could near an agreement on trade.
    “A return to dialogue and engagement — no matter the near-term results — is critical to moving the U.S.-China relationship forward in the long term,” said Curtis Chin, chair of senior fellows at the Milken Institute, also a former U.S. ambassador to the Asian Development Bank.
    That said, “headline-making deals and meetings will need to be followed by well-executed implementation and fulfillment of commitments by both sides,” said Chin. More

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    FirstFT: US and South Korea reach trade deal

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    Trump administration quietly pays overdue WTO fees

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    From futuristic NEOM to tech and tourism, Saudi Arabia’s priorities are shifting

    Faisal Alibrahim, Saudi’s economy minister, told CNBC the country was “reprioritizing a little bit towards sectors that need it the most.”
    It comes after Riyadh launched an ambitious strategy, “Vision 2030,” to diversify its economy away from oil.
    Now, technology and artificial intelligence are key priorities for the kingdom.

    Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
    The Line, NEOM

    When Saudi Arabia first announced plans to reinvent its oil-based economy, huge infrastructure projects like the futuristic region NEOM and smart city The Line were championed as central to the transformation.
    Almost a decade on from the launch of its “Vision 2030” transformation strategy, however, and Riyadh’s priorities have shifted with the times.

    Now, technology and artificial intelligence are key priorities for the kingdom.
    “We’re reprioritizing a little bit towards sectors that need it the most, and today it’s technology, artificial intelligence,” Faisal Alibrahim, Saudi’s economy minister, told CNBC Wednesday.
    “We want to move into an economic structure that is productivity-led and at the heart of productivity is technology, innovation and generative AI,” he told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on the sidelines of the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh.

    Riyadh’s Vision 2030 strategy to diversify its economy away from oil has seen it invest heavily in tourism, cultural and sports events, technology and infrastructure.
    “Our primary objective is non-oil growth and non-oil growth has been steadily increasing, this is our main driver of economic growth,” Alibrahim said, noting that non-oil activities now represent 56% of total real GDP in Saudi Arabia.

    “All of our transformation efforts are to achieve non-oil growth so we can diversify our economy from having to rely on a single commodity price and how big the government budget is, but also to rely on private sector dynamism and to be ready for the future.”
    Alibrahim said sectors like tourism had been performing far better than expected, with targets set for 2030 achieved years in advance, prompting the kingdom to up its target to 150 million visitors by the end of the decade, he said.

    A key pillar of the Vision 2030 program is the creation of NEOM, an urban development project with a futuristic, car-free and zero-carbon city called The Line at its center.
    It’s estimated that the entire NEOM project will cost $1.5 trillion, with The Line seen costing around $500 billion, but Saudi Arabia has looked to cut costs in recent years as its budget deficit has grown amid lower oil prices.
    Alibrahim said “agility” and the ability to shift priorities and amend plans had become key parts of Vision 2030, noting that “the minute these plans aren’t solving for your optimal outcomes is the minute you need to re-plan and adjust.”
    This shift in priorities has seen the technology, innovation and artificial intelligence sectors become more important areas of focus.

    People come here ‘to make money’

    Alibrahim told CNBC that Saudi was now seen as a land of opportunity for investors, as well as investment.
    “People here stopped coming to Saudi to take money, they’re coming here to make money,” he said.
    “Saudi stopped being only a source of capital to [being] also a capital of real economic opportunities,” he added. “We’re just unlocking the potential.”

    Construction for The Line project in Saudi Arabia’s NEOM, October 2024
    Giles Pendleton, The Line at NEOM

    In September, the Saudi finance ministry estimated in a pre-budget statement that the budget deficit for 2026 will be 3.3% of GDP and that it was comfortable with that level.
    “The government will continue to adopt expansionary spending policies that are contrary to the economic cycle, and [which are] directed towards national priorities with social and economic impact, and in a way that contributes to achieving the goals of the Saudi’s Vision 2030, and diversifying the economic base,” the ministry said in a statement.
    It also forecast that the economy would expand 4.4% in 2025, which it said was supported by the growth of non-oil activities, and by 4.6% in 2026. On Wednesday, Alibrahim upgraded the 2025 forecast, stating that the kingdom’s 2025 real GDP growth will be 5.1%.
    Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Aljadaan has played down concerns over Saudi Arabia’s growing debt pile (albeit a relatively low one of 32% of GDP) and deficit.
    “The ratio of public debt to GDP is still at relatively low levels compared to many other economies, and that it is within safe limits compared to the size of the economy, and is supported by financial reserves,” the minister said. More