Economy

Most of the cost consumers pay occur after food leaves the farm. For instance, in the UK, farmers recently received only about a third of the retail price for milk, with processed food margins being even smaller. This means any price declines would depend on cost reductions further down the supply chain.One possible source of savings is labor costs. The adoption of self-service checkouts, for example, effectively reduces staffing expenses, as consumers “work for the retailer for free,” Donovan said.Profit-led inflation, where companies expanded margins to drive price increases, has already plateaued. Analyst points out that U.S. retailers’ profit share of retail GDP grew from 12% in 2019 to 21% today. For prices to fall, retailers would need to actively reduce margins and pass those savings on to consumers.Consumers may eventually accept current price levels as the new norm. Shoppers typically hold a “fair price” in mind for about 18 months before adjusting expectations. Over time, the perception of high prices fades, and the current price point becomes accepted.While food inflation has eased, the structural costs behind food production and distribution make significant price declines challenging. More

Mandatory spending, which includes programs like Social Security and Medicare, accounted for $4.1 trillion in 2024. Economists at Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) said reducing these outlays is improbable given their enduring popularity and the political risk of curbing benefits for senior citizens.Social Security alone cost $1.4 trillion, while Medicare outlays reached $900 billion. Medicaid and other mandatory programs, including veterans’ benefits and retirement pay, added another $800 billion to the bill.Interest payments on the national debt, which totalled $950 billion, cannot be reduced without risking a financial crisis, the report said.Discretionary spending, totalling $1.8 trillion, offers limited room for cuts. Defence spending, which represented nearly half of that sum, stands at 3% of GDP, a post-Cold War low.“A major reduction in what Congress allocates to the Pentagon does not seem likely in today’s geopolitical environment,” the note added.Non-defense discretionary spending, funding agencies like NASA, the IRS, and border security, is already near historical lows at 3% of GDP.The compensation of federal employees, representing less than 6% of total spending, also offers little fiscal relief, with half of the workforce concentrated in defense, veterans’ affairs, and homeland security.Any significant spending cuts would require congressional action, often requiring 60 Senate votes. While the president can reverse executive actions, economists argue the savings would pale in comparison to the $26 trillion deficit projected over the next decade.“We think some reductions in federal spending and employment on the margin are plausible over the next couple of years, but probably not on the scale that they will have large implications for a U.S. economy.” More

The current capacity of approximately 270 gigawatts (GW) is anticipated to surge to over 9,000 GW to meet the demands of an energy mix increasingly dominated by renewables. By 2030, energy storage capacity is predicted to grow eightfold to over 2,000 GW.The expansion of energy storage is seen as a critical component to address the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. UBS’s analysis aligns with a broader consensus among various reports that foresee substantial growth in energy storage through to 2030 and beyond.Notably, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 report indicated a significant upward revision in renewable capacity forecasts for 2050, including a 30% increase in solar capacity from the 2023 report and an elevenfold increase from the 2015 report.“We view this as a sign that the energy storage requirement has been underappreciated and we may see further upward revisions,” UBS analysts said in a note.The bank also points to the changing dynamics of energy storage paired with renewable assets, with estimates suggesting that storage capacity should represent about 20% of total renewable capacity.This shift is further substantiated by the UBS China Utilities team’s previous forecasts, which projected an increase in the proportion of storage to renewable assets from 10% in 2020 to 20-30% by 2030.The report explores a variety of energy storage technologies that could contribute to this growth, evaluating their advantages, disadvantages, and commercial viability.“In our view, the types of storage implemented are likely to be different across regions including because of these factors,” analysts said.While pumped hydroelectricity currently constitutes the majority of energy storage and is not expected to grow significantly due to geographical limitations, battery storage systems are predicted to experience marked growth, UBS notes.This growth is partially attributed to advancements in the electric vehicle (EV) industry and the resulting cost reductions, as well as the modular and flexible nature of battery systems.“Batteries have a wide range of sizes (residential to utility scale), batteries are modular, and they can be positioned wherever needed,” UBS analysts said.However, the substantial expansion needed in energy storage comes with challenges, particularly the constraints of certain electrochemical batteries. These include reliance on critical raw materials, geopolitical risks, production issues related to water, and concerns around lifetime, safety, and the economics of storage lasting more than four hours.Analysts suggest that “other technologies could emerge as disruptors,” such as gravitational, compressed air, compressed CO2, and liquid air storage, along with alternative battery types like sodium-ion, iron-air, solid-state, and flow batteries. More

Kim called for the modernisation of regional manufacturing facilities, improvements in agriculture, and “to come up with clear results every year, regardless of conditions”. Kim was speaking on Friday at a ceremony for new production facilities in Songchon County, northeast of Pyongyang, in which he participated in ribbon-cutting and toured manufacturing rooms for products such as soy sauce and bean paste, KCNA said. Last year, North Korea’s nominal GDP stood at 40.2 trillion won ($27.86 billion), or just 1.7% that of South Korea’s 2,401.2 trillion won, South Korea’s statistics agency said on Friday. North Korea’s GDP had shrunk for three straight years since 2020 during the pandemic when the country shut its borders, and only rebounded last year, the agency said. ($1 = 1,443.1400 won) More

OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Friday looked set to lose power early next year after a key ally said he would move to bring down the minority Liberal government and trigger an election.New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh, who has been helping keep Trudeau in office, said he would present a formal motion of no-confidence after the House of Commons elected chamber returns from a winter break on Jan. 27.If all the opposition parties back the motion, Trudeau will be out of office after more than nine years as prime minister and an election will take place.A string of polls over the last 18 months show the Liberals, suffering from voter fatigue and anger over high prices and a housing crisis, would be badly defeated by the official opposition right-of-center Conservatives.The New Democrats, who like the Liberals aim to attract the support of center-left voters, complain Trudeau is too beholden to big business.”No matter who is leading the Liberal Party, this government’s time is up. We will put forward a clear motion of non-confidence in the next sitting of the House of Commons,” said Singh.The leader of the Bloc Quebecois, a larger opposition party, promised to back the motion and said there was no scenario where Trudeau survived. The Conservatives said they would ask Governor General Mary Simon – the personal representative of King Charles, Canada’s head of state – to recall Parliament to hold a no-confidence vote before the end of the year. Constitutional experts say Simon would reject such a move. “We cannot have a chaotic clown show running our government into the ground. What is clear is that Justin Trudeau does not have the confidence of Parliament,” Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre told reporters.Shortly after Singh issued his letter a smiling Trudeau, under growing pressure to quit after the shock resignation of his finance minister this week, presided over a cabinet shuffle.Trudeau’s office was not immediately available for comment.Trudeau, who has not publicly spoken about Freeland’s exit, usually addresses reporters after cabinet shuffles but left without saying a word. Major domestic media organizations said his office had canceled traditional end-of-year interviews.Votes on budgets and other spending are considered confidence measures. Additionally, the government must allocate a few days each session to opposition parties when they can unveil motions on any matter, including non-confidence.Singh’s move is a political risk, since the polls showing a bad defeat for the Liberals also have bad news for the NDP.Darrell Bricker, CEO of polling firm Ipsos-Reid, said Singh saw a chance to replace the Liberals as the first choice for voters who opposed the Conservatives.”Waiting to give the Liberals and even Trudeau a chance to get off the mat is ill-advised,” he said by email. Before Singh made his announcement, a source close to Trudeau said the prime minister would take the Christmas break to ponder his future and was unlikely to make any announcement before January.Liberal leaders are elected by special conventions of party members, which take months to arrange. Singh’s promise to act quickly means that even if Trudeau were to resign now, the Liberals could not find a new permanent leader in time for the next election. The party would then have to contest the vote with an interim leader, which has never happened before in Canada.So far around 20 Liberal legislators are openly calling for Trudeau to step down but his cabinet has stayed loyal.The timing of the crisis comes at a critical time, since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is due to take office on Jan. 20 and is promising to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada, which would badly hurt the economy.The premiers of the 10 provinces, seeking to create a united approach to the tariffs, are complaining about what they call the chaos in Ottawa. More

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