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    FirstFT: A weak dollar is dividing companies’ earnings

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    America risks a dangerous dependence on Chinese chips

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    Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the worldThe writer is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. He previously served as then US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer’s national security adviserWhile Washington fixates on advanced AI semiconductors, Beijing is quietly cornering the market in so-called foundational chips that power everything from cars to medical devices to defence systems. American supply chain security potentially hangs on the decisions taken in response to pending investigations by the Office of the United States Trade Representative and the Department of Commerce into China’s bid for dominance of the sector.The numbers are stark. China already accounts for close to 40 per cent of global chip capacity — a trajectory that points to even greater dominance by the late 2020s. Yet this crisis remains fatally overshadowed by the more glamorous race for AI supremacy. Applied to chips, the misleading terms “legacy” or “mature” connote obsolescence for what are, in fact, indispensable and innovative components. Foundational chips — semiconductors fabricated on process nodes of 28 nanometres or larger — are digital workhorses.Their importance stems from sheer ubiquity. Any electronic device with an on-off switch almost certainly contains them. They form the backbone of critical national infrastructure, managing power distribution and telecommunications networks. For the Pentagon, this represents a profound vulnerability. While advanced semiconductors are the “brain” of modern military systems, foundational chips are the “fist” in weapons deployed in the field. F-16 fighter jets, Patriot missiles and the Javelin anti-tank missiles defending Ukraine all rely on foundational chips. Ceding control of their supply chain means ceding control of the American arsenal itself.Alarmingly, this threat is already apparent on Ukrainian battlefields. China now accounts for approximately 90 per cent of Russia’s imports of “high priority” dual-use goods, with Chinese semiconductors identified in Russian drones, missiles and tanks. Meanwhile, America focuses primarily on the cutting edge. The Chips and Science Act was vital legislation — when it passed, there was zero capacity for leading-edge chip manufacturing in the US, and the bill is bending the curve. Of $39bn in manufacturing grants, approximately $28bn supports leading-edge facilities, while far less targets foundational chips. Americans should be proud of and confident in our extraordinary innovation and manufacturing capabilities. These capabilities, however, don’t run on fairy dust — they run on money. Because of China’s massive state subsidies, the traditional invisible hand cannot be counted on exclusively.The pending US investigations are therefore pivotal. The Office of the USTR and the commerce secretary are analysing whether China’s practices constitute actionable trade violations and a threat to national security. The investigation must conclude with decisive action, but tariffs alone won’t suffice. Conventional thinking says targeted tariffs can nudge supply chains, yet China’s sheer scale demands more. A recent commerce department survey found that Chinese-made chips were “pervasive” and about half of US firms couldn’t even tell if they used them. This situation is untenable. Washington should adopt a “know your chip” requirement — the semiconductor equivalent of financial know-your-customer rules — forcing companies to map and disclose their supply chains. Industrial policy may discomfort free-market purists, but it is essential to restore visibility, build capacity and strengthen the defence base.Perhaps most dangerously, US dependence on Chinese chips erodes the strategic logic that has maintained peace across the Taiwan Strait. For decades, “mutually assured economic destruction” was a powerful deterrent; China’s deep integration into global supply chains made conflict economically prohibitive. But as China pursues self-sufficiency in foundational chips while the west depends more on Chinese production, this calculus weakens.If the foundational infrastructure of our economy and core components of our military arsenal are built with switches controlled by our chief adversary, the contest for AI leadership becomes irrelevant. Securing resilient domestic and allied supply chains for foundational semiconductors is not a legacy issue to address after more exotic challenges. It is the essential, urgent, non-negotiable national security imperative of our time. The USTR and commerce department investigations offer a final chance to act decisively. Failure to do so would be catastrophic, transforming American strength into Chinese leverage with every car, missile and medical device we build. More

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    Report shows hiring at lowest since 2009 as economists turn to alternative data during shutdown blackout

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    Unemployment changed little in September, while layoff and hiring rates both slowed, according to separate labor market reports Thursday.
    The reports, from the Chicago Fed and Challenger, Gray & Christmas, substitute for data that normally comes from the government but won’t this week because of the shutdown.

    Job fair signage as job seekers arrive at the Appalachian State University internship and job fair in Boone, North Carolina, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025.
    Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Unemployment changed little in September, while layoff and hiring rates both slowed, according to separate labor market reports Thursday.
    The jobless level barely moved at 4.34%, according to a relatively new set of data indicators compiled by the Chicago Federal Reserve. That represented little change from August, though was just 0.01 percentage point away from moving up to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021.

    In September, the central bank district announced it would be releasing its own dashboard of labor market indicators that also includes the layoff rate, which was little changed monthly at 2.1%, and the hiring rate, which moved lower to 45.2%, down 0.4 percentage point from August.
    Elsewhere in the labor market, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that layoff announcements declined 37% in September and were down 26% from the same month a year ago.
    However, the year-to-date level of planning furloughs is the highest since 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic. Challenger said announced cuts have totaled 946,426 through the first three quarters. The figure already is 24% higher than all of 2024.

    Lowest new hirings since 2009

    At the same time, the firm said hiring plans have receded sharply.
    New hirings totaled just 204,939 so far in 2025, off 58% from the same period a year ago and the lowest level since 2009, when the U.S. economy was still in the throes of the financial crisis.

    “Previous periods with this many job cuts occurred either during recessions or, as was the case in 2005 and 2006, during the first wave of automations that cost jobs in manufacturing and technology,” said Andy Challenger, the firm’s senior vice president and labor expert.
    Together, the data points fill in some gaps on information that usually comes from the Labor Department.
    However, with the government shutdown entering its second day and no indications of a resolution anytime soon, economists and Fed policymakers will have to rely on data that doesn’t come from the government.
    The department normally would have released its weekly count of initial jobless claims on Thursday. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics also will be delayed. More

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    Walmart steps up automation with labour-saving sensors

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