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    First Solar jumps on strong quarter, record backlog in rare bright spot for beaten-down renewable sector

    First Solar is one of the few companies that has weathered the sharp downturn in the solar sector.
    High interest pummeled the highly leveraged residential solar sector but First Solar’s focus on large, utility-scale projects has insulated the company from the macroeconomic headwinds so far.
    First Solar has an order backlog of 80.1 gigawatts stretching through the end of the decade with the company completely sold out through 2026.

    A solar field is seen on site at First Solar in Perrysburg, Ohio, on July 8, 2022.
    Megan Jelinger | Reuters

    First Solar shares jumped Wednesday after reporting another solid quarter, with the company booked solid through 2026 and an order backlog that stretches into the end of the decade.
    The stock traded as much as 9% higher on the day. It was last up about 2%.

    Here’s how the company did in the fourth quarter:

    Net income rose 30% year over year to $349.2 million from $268.3 million
    Earnings per share of $3.25 beat an LSEG estimate of $3.13
    Revenue of $1.15 billion was slightly below a consensus forecast of $1.31 billion

    Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said the revenue miss was more than offset by strong margins of 43.3%, compared to consensus estimates of 37.7%.
    First Solar has a record order backlog of 80.1 gigawatts stretching through the end of the decade with the company completely booked through the next two years.
    First Solar is one of the few companies that has weathered the sharp downturn in the solar sector. While the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) has plummeted 43% over the past 12 months, First Solar is down 6.2% during the same period.
    High interest rates pummeled the highly leveraged residential solar sector, but First Solar’s focus on large, utility-scale projects has insulated the company from the macroeconomic headwinds.

    “We continue to believe FSLRs extended visibility into margin levels and cash flows provides a relative safe haven for investors,” JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse told clients in a note. JPMorgan has a price target of $226 for the stock, implying about 56% upside from Tuesday’s close.
    Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley raised their price targets on the back of First Solar’s quarterly report. Deutsche sees First Solar rising 44% to $210 per share, while Morgan Stanley expects upside of 69% to $245 per share.
    “The company message is clear and loud — solid growth ahead, with increased capacity coming online and two new US facilities being built up,” Deutsche analyst Corinne Blanchard told clients Wednesday.
    “FSLR is utility exposed, and therefore we believe isolated from the current ongoing challenges for the rest of the solar space,” Blanchard wrote. “The company also has a solid balance sheet, therefore reducing macro related headwinds.”
    But there are potential headwinds on the horizon with bookings expected to slow after two bumper years. Chief Financial Officer Alexander Bradley told analysts on the company’s earnings call that First Solar will be “highly selective” with its contracting in 2024 as U.S. presidential and congressional elections later this year create uncertainty for the renewable sector.
    Analysts are worried that Republicans might seek to weaken or repeal tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act if they win unified control of the government.
    CEO Mark Widmar told analysts that Chinese subsidization and dumping has led to a collapse in cell and module in key international markets such as India and Europe.
    Goldman Sachs lowered its price target for First Solar to $265 from $275 prior despite the company’s strong quarter. The investment bank said solar module oversupply and potential changes to U.S. tax credits are key risks for First Solar moving forward.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    This IRS issue is ‘the biggest, most consistent problem’ for taxpayers, expert says

    Smart Tax Planning

    You can help avoid tax refund delays by filing a complete and accurate return.
    The information you report on your return must match the tax forms received by the IRS.
    Here’s a checklist of tax forms you may need before you file and when to expect them.

    Getty Images

    If you’re expecting a tax refund this season, you can avoid delays by filing a complete and accurate return. But first, you’ll need to gather your tax forms.
    You get tax forms such as W-2s and 1099s from employers and financial institutions each year. Those entities also send the IRS copies, called “information returns.” Skipping forms on your return could halt processing.

    “It’s the [IRS] matching software that’s the biggest, most consistent problem for taxpayers,” said Bill Smith, national director of tax technical services at financial services firm CBIZ MHM.   

    More from Smart Tax Planning:

    Here’s a look at more tax-planning news.

    Since the IRS already has a copy of your tax forms, its software can easily flag missing forms, Smith explained.
    Mistakes will require you to send an amended return and that’s going to slow down the system even further, said Henry Grzes, lead manager of tax practice and ethics with the American Institute of CPAs.

    Even if you can submit the amended return electronically, it’s typically processed manually, which can take months, said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.
    “That is still a manual and very labor-intensive process,” he said, stressing the importance of filing an accurate return the first time by having all your tax forms ready.

    Here’s a list of some of the most common tax forms and when to expect them.

    When to expect tax forms

    While many tax forms must be sent by Jan. 31, others won’t arrive until mid-February or beyond. “Information returns come in later and later every year,” Smith said.
    For earnings, common forms may include a W-2 for wages, 1099-NEC for contract or gig economy work, 1099-G for unemployment income and 1099-R for retirement plan distributions. 
    While most taxpayers will receive forms from their employers or financial institutions, some may not, especially for small amounts.
    “You can’t just say, ‘I didn’t get a slip, so, therefore, I don’t have to report the income,'” said Grzes. “If it’s income, you have to report the income.”
    Don’t assume you’ll get a mailed paper form, either. With more financial institutions going paperless, you may have to download tax forms, such as savings account interest or investment earnings, from your online accounts.

    For tax breaks, you may need forms 1098 for mortgage interest, 5498 for individual retirement account deposits, 5498-SA for health savings account contributions, 1098-T for tuition, 1098-E for student loan interest and more.
    Of course, corrected tax forms may take longer because your employer or financial institution has to reissue the documents.

    The ‘first thing’ you need to get organized

    If you’re unsure which tax forms you need, Smith suggested reviewing last year’s return.
    “That’s the first thing you should do to get ready for taxes,” he said.
    For example, you may have the same employers, income from financial institutions and similar tax breaks.
    But if things changed or if this is your first time filing a return, think about what happened in your life last year, places you worked or things you sold, O’Saben said.

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    401(k) millionaire ranks grew 11.5% in 2023. They are ‘poster children for staying the course,’ expert says

    Retirement 401(k) account balances bounced back in 2023 to the highest level in nearly two years, according to Fidelity’s recent report.
    Despite persistent inflation, more than one-third of workers increased their retirement savings contribution rate.
    The number of 401(k) millionaires also rose more than 10%.

    In a year that defied most economists’ expectations, retirement savers reaped the benefits.
    Retirement account balances, which took a sharp nosedive in 2022 due to market volatility, have now started to bounce back, according to the latest data from Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) savings plans. The financial services firm handles more than 45 million retirement accounts total.

    The average 401(k) balance ended 2023 up 14% from a year earlier to $118,600, Fidelity found.
    The average individual retirement account balance also gained 12% year over year to $116,600 in the fourth quarter of 2023.

    “This past year ended on a high note for retirement savers,” said Sharon Brovelli, president of workplace investing at Fidelity Investments.
    Positive savings behaviors were key to realizing better outcomes, added Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president of thought leadership.
    A great year for the major indexes also helped. The Nasdaq soared 43% in 2023, while the S&P 500 notched a 24% annual gain and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 13%.

    Number of 401(k) millionaires jumps 11.5%

    At the end of 2023, signs that inflation was cooling were not only good news for the economy, but they were also good news for stocks. After the S&P 500 closed out 2023 with a nine-week win streak, the number of Fidelity 401(k) plans with a balance of $1 million or more increased 20% from the third quarter.
    Year over year, the number of 401(k) millionaires rose 11.5%. 
    “These are the poster children of staying the course and taking a long-term approach,” Shamrell said.
    Overall, more than one-third of retirement savers increased their retirement savings contributions, Fidelity found. The average 401(k) contribution rate, including employer and employee contributions, now stands at 13.9%, just below Fidelity’s suggested savings rate of 15%.

    More retirement savers are borrowing from their 401(k)

    Still, savers also tapped their accounts to free up cash. The percentage of workers who took a loan from their 401(k), including for hardship reasons, ticked up to 8.9%, from 7.8% at the end of 2022. 
    Federal law allows workers to borrow up to 50% of their account balance, or $50,000, whichever is less. However many financial experts similarly advise against tapping a 401(k) before exhausting all other alternatives since you’ll also be forfeiting the power of compound interest. 
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    At the same time, many households are also leaning heavily on credit cards to make ends meet, other research shows.
    Across all ages and income levels, more than one-third of adults have more credit card debt than emergency savings, according to a recent report by Bankrate.
    “At a time of record-high credit card rates, we see a record-high number of Americans carrying credit card debt that exceeds their emergency savings,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

    During times of financial stress, it may make sense to borrow from a retirement account, rather than rely on such high-interest debt, according to Fidelity’s Shamrell.
    “If you have been in a financial bind and the choice is a high-interest credit card or a loan from your 401(k), sometimes the loan is your optimal choice,” he said.
    “But that’s in a time of real financial need,” he added, “not going to your college roommate’s wedding in Napa.”
    Unlike credit card and other debt, savers who borrow from their 401(k) pay themselves back with interest. Interest rates are also generally much lower than those of credit cards, which are currently at a record high over 21%.
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    Aspiring homeowners say they face two major obstacles to buying. Here’s why 20% say it’ll ‘never’ happen

    More than half of aspiring homeowners say cost of living and insufficient income make it difficult to afford a down payment and closing costs for a home, according to a new report by Bankrate.
    The report also found a degree of pessimism from aspiring homebuyers who think they will never be able to buy a home, or that it will take at least five or 10 years.
    “That’s a long time for people to wait,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief of Bankrate.

    Milos Dimic | E+ | Getty Images

    With various factors keeping homeownership out of reach for Americans, many aspiring homeowners are pessimistic, doubting they will ever achieve that goal.
    Would-be buyers point to two major obstacles holding them back, according to a new Bankrate report. About half, 51%, point to a high cost of living, and 54% say they have insufficient income given where home prices are now.

    The site polled 2,267 U.S. adults, 864 of whom are aspiring homeowners, in late January. Bankrate defined aspiring or prospective homeowners as those who have either owned a home in the past but currently do not, as well as those who have never owned a home but wish to someday.
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    When asked about their ability to buy a home, 20% of aspiring owners said they may “never” be able to save enough for the down payment and other costs. Meanwhile, 30% said it could take them at least five years, while 10% said it could take them a decade or longer. 
    “That’s a long time for people to wait,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst and Washington bureau chief of Bankrate. “‘Never’ is a long time, [and] so can be five or 10 years.” 

    Mortgage rates cross 7% again

    High mortgage rates can contribute to aspiring homeowners’ feeling that their income is holding them back from buying in the current market.

    As interest rates rose sharply in 2022, the average cost of a monthly mortgage payment swelled to $2,045 in December 2022, a 46% increase from $1,400 a year prior, according to a September report from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. More people were denied on mortgage applications for insufficient income in 2022 than in 2021.
    Last week, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 7.06% from 6.87%, a disappointing sight for those who were expecting more pronounced declines in the early year, Hamrick said.
    While there are predictions that suggest rates may begin to come down this year, “a series of unexpected events,” like the Covid-19 pandemic, have made interest rates both spike and sharply decline in recent years, he said. 
    “We have to acknowledge a high degree of uncertainty even though we want to understand there’s a baseline or expectation within reason,” Hamrick said.

    Homeownership costs go beyond the mortgage

    Aspiring buyers need to think beyond the down payment as they consider their timeline to homeownership. They must be able to meet new obligations that come with owning a home on top of other financial goals, said Hamrick, who underscored the need for emergency savings.
    “Homeownership is not a singular event that does not have other implications on finances,” he said. “There’s no doubt that there will be repairs, maintenance and upgrades and renovations required as long as they are owning a home.”

    If the homeowner is not prepared for such repairs and maintenance costs, these additional expenses can lead to financial strain, making it harder to save toward other goals and indirectly making you “house poor,” certified financial planner Preston D. Cherry recently told CNBC. Cherry, the founder and president of Concurrent Financial Planning in Green Bay, Wisconsin, is also a CNBC FA Council member.
    It could be worse, Hamrick added: “It’s not only a question of being house poor, but it’s question of taking on more debt because of the lack of flexibility in household finances.”
    In addition to high cost of living and low income, aspiring homeowners also cited credit card debt (18%) and student loan debt (10%) as barriers to homeownership, the Bankrate report found. More

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    H&R Block used deceptive marketing and unfairly deleted tax filer data, FTC complaint alleges

    Smart Tax Planning

    The Federal Trade Commission has filed an administrative complaint against H&R Block, alleging the company deceptively marketed free filing products and wrongfully deleted users’ tax data.
    The action comes one month after the FTC banned “deceptive advertising” of free filing products from TurboTax maker Intuit.
    Consumers have several free tax filing options this season, including a Direct File pilot via the IRS.

    An H&R Block tax preparation office is seen on Flatbush Avenue in the Prospect Heights neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City on Feb. 6, 2024.
    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    After cracking down on TurboTax maker Intuit, the Federal Trade Commission has filed an administrative complaint against H&R Block, alleging the company deceptively marketed free filing products and wrongfully deleted users’ tax data.
    H&R Block marketed free products to many consumers who didn’t qualify and made it difficult to downgrade, according to the complaint. One hurdle to switching products included “data wiping” — or deleting a user’s in-progress tax return information — which required them to start again from scratch.

    “H&R Block designed its online products to present an obstacle course of tedious challenges to consumers, pressuring them into overpaying for its products,” Samuel Levine, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, said in a statement Friday. 

    More from Smart Tax Planning:

    Here’s a look at more tax-planning news.

    While downgrading requires the tax filer to contact customer support by chat or phone, product upgrades happen “seamlessly,” the complaint alleges.
    “We believe we provide our clients with a great deal of value, unmatched tax expertise, and fair and transparent pricing,” Dara Redler, chief legal officer of H&R Block, wrote in an emailed statement. “H&R Block allows consumers to downgrade to a less expensive DIY product via multiple mechanisms while ensuring the preparation of accurate tax returns.”  
    Ed Mierzwinski, consumer advocate at U.S. Public Interest Research Group, said PIRG is pleased to see the FTC pursuing H&R Block and Intuit for “misleading” or “deceptive” promises of free tax filing products. 

    FTC banned ‘deceptive advertising’ from Intuit

    This is the second FTC action against tax filing software providers in recent history. Last month, the FTC banned deceptive advertising from TurboTax maker Intuit after upholding a September ruling that found the company violated federal law. The opinion said Intuit marketed free TurboTax software to filers who were not eligible and upgraded the filers to deluxe and premium products. 

    An Intuit spokesperson said the company has appealed the “deeply flawed decision” and expects to prevail “when the matter ultimately returns to a neutral body.”  

    Other free tax filing options

    Meanwhile, consumers have several free tax filing options this season, including a Direct File pilot via the IRS, which will offer limited free filing for certain taxpayers in 12 states by mid-March. Last week, an IRS official said the pilot would soon be available to the public in the 12 states for “short, unannounced windows of time.”
    Taxpayers can also use IRS Free File, which offers free guided software for filers with an adjusted gross income of $79,000 or less for 2023, among other choices.

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    Unemployment benefits, emergency savings. Here’s how to get by without a paycheck after a job loss

    Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Paramount are among a long list of companies with recent layoffs.
    Financial advisors share tips on how to best spend your money after a job loss.

    Fg Trade | E+ | Getty Images

    Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Paramount are among a long list of companies with recent layoffs. Many of those unemployed workers are now trying to figure out how to get by without a paycheck.
    CNBC spoke to financial experts on the best way to use your financial resources while unemployed.

    “Job loss is extremely traumatic, but it is important to remember that it is not the end of the world,” said Michele Evermore, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation.

    Assess your severance

    Some newly unemployed workers are offered a severance package by their former company, which often means their paychecks are continued for some period or that they receive a lump sum at their termination. Certain benefits, such as health insurance, may also get extended.
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    These funds can delay when you need to dig into your savings, said certified financial planner Cathy Curtis, founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning in Oakland, California.
    “If the person was fortunate enough to get a severance package, they can draw on that first,” said Curtis, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

    File for unemployment

    In some states, it can take weeks for your unemployment claim to be approved, so the sooner you file, the better, Evermore explained.
    “As soon as someone becomes unemployed, the next website they should visit should be the state unemployment application site,” she said.
    You are typically supposed to start receiving your benefit within 21 days after you’ve applied, but Evermore said, “states are still a little slower than they were pre-pandemic, so the wait could be a little longer.”
    To help you budget, determine how much you might receive and for how long, experts say. The average weekly benefit ranges greatly between states, Evermore said. Most states pay benefits for 26 weeks.

    Job loss is extremely traumatic.

    Michele Evermore
    a senior fellow at The Century Foundation

    Whether or not the package affects your unemployment benefits depends on your state’s rules, Evermore said. Just be sure to accurately report the amount and timing of any severance to your unemployment agency both when you apply for the benefits and on your continued weekly claims, she said.
    For example, the agency in New York says people who were ineligible for jobless benefits because of their severance package can apply for the aid once their severance runs out and if they haven’t been rehired yet.
    The Employment Security Department in Washington state, meanwhile, says severance payments do not usually affect your benefits.

    Adjust your budget

    After a job loss, you should make sure you know your exact monthly expenses, said certified financial planner and physician Carolyn McClanahan, founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida.
    “If they don’t, they should immediately figure it out and what can be cut until their financial situation is stabilized,” said McClanahan, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
    Curtis added that it would be wise to do without “discretionary expenses such as dining out and travel until a new job is found.”

    Strategize which savings to tap, in what order

    Hopefully you have an emergency savings fund to draw from, Curtis said. Unlike the money in, say, your retirement account, these savings are usually in a high-yield savings account or another place that’s easy to access “and very liquid,” she said.
    If it takes a while to find another job, the next best place from which to pull money is any taxable, nonretirement investment accounts, Curtis said. While this might land you with a larger tax bill, you’ll avoid the penalties that come with digging into retirement savings earlier than allowed.
    You may even be able to avoid taxes. If you have any securities that have had a loss, you could look to first sell those and circumvent capital gains, Curtis said.

    If you don’t have securities in the red, you should try to sell assets that you’ve held for a year or longer, as these usually are taxed at more favorable rates than those you’ve owned for just months or less, she added.
    “Tapping into retirement accounts should be a last resort as withdrawals can have penalties and will be taxed at higher ordinary income tax rates,” Curtis said. “Plus, it disrupts the compounding growth of retirement savings.”Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    Amid mass layoffs, it’s best to take a new approach to job searches, expert says

    Companies have shed thousands of jobs in 2024 in an effort to cut costs.
    For those who have recently been laid off, the good news is the job market is still strong.
    But career experts say you may have to take a new approach to successfully land your next role.

    Westend61 | Westend61 | Getty Images

    As thousands of layoffs make headlines, experts say there is a silver lining — a resilient job market.
    But to find your next position faster as companies cut costs, you may have to take a new approach.

    In January, companies cut a record 82,307 positions, the highest number of job cuts announced since January 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement and business and executive coaching firm.
    The top sectors affected by those job losses were finance and technology. Companies such as Citigroup, Google and Amazon have been affected.

    The fresh wave of technology layoffs has prompted Holly Lee, a career coach and former recruiting leader for Amazon, to reposition her approach with clients.
    “Now I have basically transitioned my entire model into coaching people to calm down,” Lee said.
    “I work really hard in building their confidence,” she said.

    To successfully land a new position faster, it helps to adapt, Lee said.

    Don’t fixate on one kind of role

    For workers with years of experience at a big tech name, their goal is often to find another similar position.
    “Don’t just be stuck in, ‘I want to work for a big tech company,’ and that’s it,” Lee said.
    With that mindset, you run the risk of ignoring opportunities with other companies that are hiring.
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    “There’s a ton of startups preparing to go IPO or pre-IPO companies that are still trying to build talent,” Lee said.
    Job search tools can help amplify your search, according to Scott Dobroski, a career trends expert at Indeed.
    By updating your profile on job search sites with your skills, experience and the positions you are seeking, you may find roles you would not have otherwise considered. For example, bank tellers may find their skill set also makes them suitable for sales executive positions.
    “We’ve seen some people get jobs quicker and earn salaries of upwards of $30,000, $35,000 or more because they’re finding a job that way,” Dobroski said.

    Bring your authentic self

    Having the right social networking skills can make a big difference in finding work faster, according to Lee.
    For some people, that means shaking off their naturally introverted tendencies to become more extroverted.
    “Now’s the time to bring more of your authentic self,” Lee said.

    It helps to perfect your sales pitch for when you do land an interview or get face time in front of a prospective employer, according to Vicki Salemi, a career expert at Monster.
    Look at your recent performance reviews to help highlight achievements and skills you want to boast about, Salemi said. Be sure to note transferrable skills, such as having the ability to lead with empathy, handle deadline-driven work or operate under a company’s budget.

    Be persistent

    When unemployed, it can be easy to sit back and wait for prospective employers to reach out. But those who are most successful in their job search are the most proactive, Lee said.
    If you’re not finding luck in your search, don’t be afraid to try a new approach, she said.
    “You can’t sit back and expect changes by doing the exact same thing that hasn’t worked,” Lee said.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

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    Top Wall Street analysts pick these dividend stocks for enhanced returns

    The Coca-Cola Company logo is being displayed at a New Year’s fair in Kyiv, Ukraine, on December 31, 2023.
    STR | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Investors looking to enhance their portfolio returns can opt for a combination of growth and dividend stocks.
    Choosing the right dividend stock by analyzing multiple factors can be complex for investors. However, recommendations from analysts can help inform investors’ research and guide them toward lucrative dividend stocks from companies with strong fundamentals.

    Here are three attractive dividend stocks, according to Wall Street’s top experts on TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.
    Coca-Cola
    This week’s first dividend pick is beverage giant Coca-Cola (KO). Earlier this month, the company reported fourth-quarter revenue that surpassed expectations and earnings that were in line with analysts’ estimates. Higher prices helped Coca-Cola offset the weakness in North American volumes.
    Coca-Cola paid $8 billion in dividends in 2023 and made net share repurchases worth $1.7 billion. The company, recently announced a nearly 5.4% increase in its quarterly dividend per share to $0.485. This increase marked the 62nd consecutive year of dividend hikes for the company. With an annual dividend of $1.94 per share, KO stock offers a yield of more than 3%.
    Following the Q4 2023 results, RBC Capital analyst Nik Modi reiterated a buy rating on Coca-Cola stock with a price target of $65. The analyst noted that KO’s organic revenue growth was fueled by the impressive rise in pricing and resilient volumes, with the company exceeding the organic growth expectations for five out of six segments.
    While higher marketing investments and a strong dollar weighed on Coca-Cola’s earnings, the analyst expects the company’s fundamentals to remain robust this year.

    “We believe the company’s latest restructuring and organizational design changes will facilitate better allocation of resources, which will ultimately lead to better share gains and white space expansion,” said Modi.   
    Modi ranks No. 615 among more than 8,700 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 60% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 6.3%. (See Coca-Cola Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks) 
    Blue Owl Capital
    Next up is Blue Owl Capital (OWL), an asset manager with assets under management of more than $165 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023. On Feb. 9, the company announced its quarterly results and declared a dividend of 14 cents a share, payable on March 5. The company also announced about a 29% hike in its annual dividend for 2024 to 72 cents per share (18 cents a share per quarter). Blue Owl has a dividend yield of 3.1%.
    In reaction to the print, Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Bedell reaffirmed a buy rating on OWL stock and increased the price target to $20 from $17. The analyst thinks that the company’s fourth-quarter results were “very good,” with a strong revenue beat, driven by improved management fees and higher-than-expected transaction fees.
    Following the 25% growth in fee-related earnings, or FRE, in 2023, the analyst thinks the company is well-positioned to deliver at least a 25% FRE increase this year as well. The analyst highlighted management’s commentary about reaching the dividend goal of $1 per share by 2025, with a line of sight into generating an additional $1 billion in revenue.
    “Most importantly, after raising the dividend by 29% to $0.72 p.s. [per share] for 2024, mgmt portrayed high visibility into generating stronger earnings power to support a dividend near $1.00 p.s. in 2025 (we model $0.91),” said Bedell.
    Bedell holds the 593rd position among more than 8,700 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 54% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 8.5%. (See Blue Owl Hedge Fund Activity on TipRanks)
    Chevron
    Oil and gas giant Chevron’s (CVX) earnings declined last year due to lower oil prices compared to the elevated levels seen in 2022. Nonetheless, the company impressed investors with significant shareholder returns of $26.3 billion. This amount included about $14.9 billion in share buybacks and $11.3 billion in dividends.
    Further, Chevron, a dividend aristocrat, announced an 8% rise in its quarterly dividend to $1.63 per share, payable on March 11. The stock has a yield of 4.2%.  
    Noting Chevron’s Q4 beat on adjusted earnings per share, Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta reiterated a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $180. The analyst highlighted management’s constructive update on the Tengizchevroil, or TCO, expansion project in Kazakhstan.
    While share repurchases in the first quarter of 2024 could be limited due to the ongoing Hess deal, Mehta remains bullish about Chevron’s “leading capital returns profile, where we expect CVX to return ~$29.3 bn in 2024/2025, representing ~10% yield vs US Major peer average of ~8%.”
    Aside from Chevron’s attractive capital returns profile, Mehta is also optimistic about the company’s 2025 upstream volume and cash flow inflection as the TCO project ramps.
    Mehta ranks No. 351 among more than 8,700 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 62% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 10.7%. (See Chevron Financials on TipRanks)
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