More stories

  • in

    What Harvard University President Claudine Gay’s resignation means for future applicants

    Harvard President Claudine Gay’s resignation was just the latest upheaval at one of the nation’s top colleges.
    For college applicants, the move adds more uncertainty to an admissions process that was already in flux.
    Early applications ahead of the Nov. 1 deadline sank 17%.

    Harvard University President Claudine Gay’s resignation Tuesday is just the latest upheaval at one of the nation’s top colleges.
    For college applicants, the move adds more uncertainty to an admissions process that was already shifting in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling against affirmative action.

    “I don’t expect Harvard to lose its crown as one of the most coveted universities,” said Hafeez Lakhani, founder and president of Lakhani Coaching in New York. However, “I’ve seen students really shaken to the core.”

    Harvard early admission applications fall 17%

    This year’s early admissions cycle, which marked the first in which race was not considered, reflected a changing dynamic.
    Early applications ahead of the Nov. 1 deadline — amid multiple incidents of antisemitism on campus following the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas — sank 17%. There were 7,921 early applicants to the Class of 2028, down from 9,553 last year, the Harvard Crimson reported.
    Harvard admitted 8.74% of the total pool, an increase of more than 1 percentage point from last year’s 7.56%, notching the highest early action acceptance rate since 2019.
    More from Personal Finance:Is an Ivy League degree worth it?New FAFSA ‘soft launch’ hits snagsFewer students are enrolling in college

    “Whatever change we see this year, in time, that will probably normalize,” Lakhani predicted.
    Indeed, a slightly more favorable acceptance rate could have already prompted more students to apply by the regular decision deadline on Jan. 1, according to Christopher Rim, president and CEO of college consulting firm Command Education.
    Gay’s resignation, which came shortly after that deadline and roughly one month after Gay and then-University of Pennsylvania President Liz Magill were criticized for answers they gave at a congressional hearing on campus antisemitism, could also cause more students to apply next year, he added.
    “This is the first time I’ve ever seen something like this,” Rim said. “The brand took a huge hit, but I think it’s going to recover ultimately.”

    The brand took a huge hit, but I think it’s going to recover ultimately.

    Christopher Rim
    president and CEO of Command Education

    Harvard did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
    In response to Gay’s resignation, Alan Garber, Harvard’s provost and chief academic officer, who will now serve as the university’s interim president, said in a statement, “I am confident we will overcome challenges we face and build a brighter future for Harvard.”
    However, future applicants are increasingly motivated by social justice-related considerations, Lakhani said, and that will continue to drive their decisions about college. “There’s a very sensitive narrative happening,” he said.
    “In the short term, it’s a Harvard and Penn problem; in the long term it is a higher education problem,” he said.
    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

    Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube. More

  • in

    Op-ed: Here are some moves to maximize your Social Security benefits

    Social Security benefits are an important part of the retirement income stream as people enter the next chapter of their lives.
    There is much debate and discussion surrounding the question of when the right time is to claim.
    Several considerations can help you maximize your income.

    South_agency | E+ | Getty Images

    Be aware of when you should opt in

    Many people falsely believe that you must start taking Social Security benefits as soon as you retire, but this isn’t the case at all.
    Technically, you can start receiving Social Security as early as age 62, despite the currently designated full retirement age of 67.

    If you are ill and are uncertain that you’ll live to the break-even age of 80-81, opting into benefits earlier could be a good choice for you.
    Starting your benefits at age 62 could also be a helpful option if you really need the cash and don’t have enough saved to support you until full retirement age. However, it might behoove you to wait. Here’s why:
    Be aware that your benefit will be permanently reduced if you start claiming Social Security before your full retirement age (66-67), so if you’re able to hold off until then, it’ll be better for you in the long term. If it’s possible to wait even longer, your benefit will continue to increase until age 70, which is really enticing for those in a place to postpone. Every year you wait from 67 to 70, your benefit grows by 8%.

    Another reason for waiting to take your benefits is that it may be hard to get the same level of return in the stock market every year.
    In fact, if you wait to start collecting Social Security at 70 and live past 80-81 years old, you will actually receive more cash from your Social Security benefits than if you had started taking your benefits at full retirement age.
    Your break-even age is determined by what age you begin accepting benefits and how many Social Security checks you receive in your lifetime. If you opt-in early, you may receive more checks over your lifetime, but each check will be less than if you wait until age 70 to start taking benefits. If you wait to age 70, the cash amount will be higher and ultimately you’ll earn more money in a shorter period of time.
    Usually by age 81, you will have received more money from Social Security in your lifetime than you would have by starting your benefits earlier.
    That said, if you have immediate financial needs or a health condition expected to shorten your lifespan, adjust this guidance to suit your situation.

    Know when your spouse should file

    Even though many Social Security restrictions were eliminated in 2015, couples can still optimize their benefits in several ways. If both of you are in very good health, it’s typically best for both of you to wait until age 70 to start claiming your own benefits.
    However, if you’re concerned that one of you might not live past 80 or 81, consider having the higher earner delay claiming their benefits until age 70, while the other spouse opts to take their benefits sooner.

    This strategy works well because survivor benefits work differently than spousal benefits. Even if the higher earner dies before age 70, the living spouse will still receive their partner’s benefit as if they had already begun taking it.
    There’s another strategy to consider, if the benefit you’re going to receive as a spouse is higher than your own benefit (meaning you earned less than your spouse or you didn’t work consistently or at all). In this case, you can start claiming Social Security based on your spouse’s earnings as early as age 62, as long as your spouse filed for their own benefit first. This works particularly well when the higher earning worker is a few years older than the spouse and can file at full retirement age or later. Sometimes it makes sense to start claiming before age 70 when it delays a non-working spouse from enjoying those spousal benefits.

    Understand your options around divorce and death

    If you’re divorced but were married to a higher-earning ex-spouse for at least 10 years, don’t forget that you’re entitled to the spousal benefit on their record — and you don’t even need to contact them to find out that amount.
    To claim on their record, you must be at least 62 and still unmarried, but your ex doesn’t have to have filed. In fact, no matter when you file, their benefit won’t be impacted.
    If you are divorced and your ex-spouse has passed away, you can still claim survivor benefits on their record as early as age 60. Widows and widowers can also claim survivor benefits at the same age.
    One extra benefit to a survivor is that they can first claim the survivor benefits, then switch to their own retirement benefit by age 70 if that amount is higher.

    As you can see, there are still quite a few nuances at play when determining the optimal time to start taking Social Security benefits. Depending on your situation, it may be a better option to begin retirement benefits earlier. On the other hand, delaying retirement benefits might make more financial sense.
    Much like your career, retirement isn’t a “one size fits all” life stage.
    What’s important is that you make the right decision for your finances and future, and seeking professional guidance is often a very helpful next step.
    — Lea Ann Knight, a certified financial planner and co-owner and managing partner at Better Money Decisions More

  • in

    New change to 529 college savings plans has ‘so many caveats,’ advisor says. Here’s what to know

    Starting in 2024, families can roll unused 529 plan funds to the account beneficiary’s Roth individual retirement account, without triggering income taxes or penalties.
    However, there are “so many caveats,” according to certified financial planner and enrolled agent John Loyd, owner at The Wealth Planner.

    Nancy Ney | Photodisc | Getty Images

    The new year has ushered in a big change to 529 college savings plans, which has made the accounts more attractive to some investors. But the adjustment may have unexpected downsides, experts say.
    Starting in 2024, families can roll unused 529 plan funds to the account beneficiary’s Roth individual retirement account, without triggering income taxes or penalties, as long as the 529 plan has been open for at least 15 years.

    Enacted via Secure 2.0, the change may offer more flexibility, but there are “so many caveats,” said certified financial planner and enrolled agent John Loyd, owner at The Wealth Planner in Fort Worth, Texas.
    More from Personal Finance:A ‘significant objection’ to 529 plans goes away in 2024, thanks to Secure 2.0New FAFSA launches after a long delay — but with some ‘issues,’ Ed Dept. saysHere’s why 2024 could be the year student loan borrowers finally get forgiveness

    The downsides of 529-to-Roth IRA rollovers

    The biggest downside of a 529-to-Roth IRA rollover is the conversion counts toward your annual IRA contribution limit, which may stunt future growth across both accounts, according to Loyd.
    “You’re reducing one and sliding it over to the other,” he said. “If my kids are pulling money from their 529 to make Roth contributions down the road, Daddy’s not going to be happy.”

    If my kids are pulling money from their 529 to make Roth contributions down the road, Daddy’s not going to be happy.

    Owner at The Wealth Planner

    For 2024, the annual IRA contribution limit is $7,000, with an extra $1,000 for investors age 50 and older. There’s a lifetime cap of $35,000 for 529-to-Roth IRA rollovers, which means it would take five years of $7,000 conversions to reach the limit.

    Plus, you can’t roll over the previous five years of 529 contributions and the beneficiary must have enough “earned income,” or wages from a job, to match each year’s conversion, similar to regular Roth IRA contributions, according to CFP Jim Guarino, managing director at Baker Newman Noyes in Woburn, Massachusetts. He is also a certified public accountant.
    Generally, it’s better to keep the money growing in a 529 plan and contribute to a Roth IRA separately because you can change 529 plan beneficiaries, Loyd said. “You always want to try to maximize those tax efficiencies,” he added.

    Wait until later in 2024 to ‘test the waters’

    If you’re planning on a 529-to-Roth IRA conversion in 2024, Guarino suggests waiting until later in the year to “test the waters.” The IRS and states may issue more guidance in the meantime, he said.
    For example, it’s unclear whether beneficiary changes restart the clock for the 15-year waiting period or whether states will mirror federal law and allow income tax and penalty-free rollovers.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

  • in

    These beneficiaries are first to receive a new cost-of-living adjustment for 2024. Here’s what to watch for

    Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, beneficiaries started receiving increased benefits for 2024 in December.
    Here’s what recipients should know about those payments.

    Mark Edward Atkinson | Tetra Images | Getty Images

    What to watch for with ‘two check’ months

    SSI recipients must comply with strict rules. Individuals have a $2,000 limit on resources they may own such as property, stocks, bonds or bank accounts. For couples, the limit is $3,000.
    These thresholds have not changed since 1989.
    When two benefit checks are distributed in one calendar month, it can put beneficiaries “dangerously close” to the $2,000 asset limit, especially with standard payments of $943 per month in 2024, according to Kate Vengraitis, supervising attorney at the health and independence and SSI units at Community Legal Services of Philadelphia.
    The firm provides free civil legal assistance to low-income Philadelphia residents.
    Beneficiaries who still get paper checks are particularly at risk for this issue, she said, which can result in overpayment notices from the Social Security Administration and an automatic 10% withholding from benefit checks.
    “There’s not often a thorough investigation about why it happens,” Vengraitis said.
    “It can be hard to navigate that, especially without legal support,” she said.

    A bipartisan group of lawmakers is pushing for a bill that would raise the asset limits to $10,000 for individuals and $20,000 for married couples, up from $2,000 and $3,000, respectively.
    Experts say the change would eliminate a marriage penalty SSI beneficiaries face, as well as other complications.
    “We have employees who don’t want us to increase their salary because if it goes over a certain amount, they can’t get that benefit which they’re entitled to,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said during a recent Senate Banking Committee hearing.
    “This definitely should be fixed,” Dimon said.
    Eligible SSI beneficiaries are currently allowed to hold $100,000 penalty-free in ABLE accounts, tax advantaged savings programs for people with disabilities.

    Schedule of SSI payments for 2024
    *Dec. 1, 2023, Dec. 29, 2023
    Feb. 1, 2024
    March 1
    April 1
    *May 1, 31
    July 1
    *Aug. 1, 30
    Oct. 1
    *Nov. 1, 29
    Dec. 31
    *Calendar months when two SSI checks are distributed.
    **For beneficiaries who receive both SSI and Social Security, SSI is generally paid on the 1st of the month and Social Security is paid on the 3rd.

    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

  • in

    Job data shows two kinds of workers: the ‘haves and have nots,’ economist says

    Hiring and quitting slowed in November, while layoffs remain historically low, according to the U.S. Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
    This means job security is strong for existing workers, while the unemployed may have trouble finding a new gig.
    Companies may be encouraged in 2024 if the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates.

    Maskot | Maskot | Getty Images

    U.S. Department of Labor data issued Wednesday suggests a two-tiered job market has emerged, in which workers enjoy strong job security while the unemployed may have trouble finding a new gig.
    “There’s a bifurcated labor market,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “There are haves and have nots.”

    Hiring has slowed, but so have layoffs

    Companies hired nearly 5.5 million people in November, the fewest since 2017, according to the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The hiring rate — the number of hires during the month as a percent of employment — was 3.5% in November, the lowest since 2014.
    These comparisons exclude the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, in March 2020 and April 2020.
    More from Personal Finance:Expert predictions for interest rates in 2024How investors can prepare for potential interest rate cuts in 2024Why 2024 could be the year student loan borrowers finally get forgiveness
    Further, the quits rate — a barometer of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs — declined to 2.2% in November, according to JOLTS data. That’s “still solid” but not as strong as its pre-pandemic high point in 2019, wrote Daniel Zhao, lead economist at career site Glassdoor.
    Meanwhile, layoffs continue to hover near historic lows, contrasting with weaker hiring and job turnover. The layoff rate was unchanged at 1% in November. It had never dipped to that level, or below, before March 2021.

    What this all means: Hiring and job hopping have slowed but companies are still loath to let go of their existing workers, amounting to greater job security for the average worker relative to past years.
    The average worker’s odds of being let go are “unusually low,” Pollak said. “You can sit pretty.”
    However, the hiring processes may be “pretty slow and cautious” for the unemployed and for job seekers, Pollak added.
    “Expect to do more interviews and face a little bit more resistance in that process,” she said.

    Weaker data isn’t ‘flashing a red flag yet’

    The labor market has been cooling gradually from red-hot levels in 2021 and 2022 as the U.S. economy reemerged from its pandemic-era shutdown.
    The Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs to rein in the economy and labor market to tame persistently high inflation. While the central bank seems poised to start reducing interest rates in 2024, the aggregate effect of its policy seems to be weighing on the job market, economists said.
    That said, there doesn’t seem cause for concern just yet, they added. Data suggests the economy is heading for a “soft landing,” a Goldilocks scenario in which the Fed tames inflation without triggering a recession.

    “Soft quits (& hires) are not flashing a red flag yet, but they’re certainly not pointing to an overheated job market,” Zhao wrote.
    The unemployment rate, which was 3.7% in November, is also low by historical standards.  
    Companies may be encouraged if the Fed starts cutting interest rates and ramps up hiring, Pollak said.
    There are some “glimmers of hope.” Job openings increased in the interest-rate-sensitive construction and durable goods manufacturing sectors in November, for example, suggesting there’s rising confidence about potential future growth and investment, she added.
    Of course, there’s risk the labor market could cool further from here.
    “Increasingly JOLTS signals to me that we may be edging past the point of a soft landing” and into a labor market cooler than 2019 levels, Zhao said.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

  • in

    Dry January may help improve your finances. One woman has already saved $48,000 by giving up alcohol

    If you’re still on the fence about partaking in Dry January, there’s another incentive to consider: the financial savings.
    “Drinking alcohol is expensive,” said Casey McGuire Davidson, a sobriety coach.
    Davidson found herself with an extra $500 in her first month without alcohol. Eight years later, she has saved more than $48,000.

    Gu Studio | E+ | Getty Images

    When Tracye Polson gets home from work, she pours herself a glass of Chardonnay. “It’s really about a ritual, and relaxing,” said Polson, 64, a social worker in Jacksonville, Florida.
    This month, she’ll need to find other ways unwind — she’s trying Dry January. Polson was largely motivated to forgo alcohol for 31 days for health reasons. She has survived breast cancer and has high cholesterol.

    But she’s also looking forward to spending less in the coming weeks. The bottles of wine she buys cost about $20 each, and drinks out on the weekends also add up.
    More from Personal Finance:This strategy can help you meet New Year’s resolution goalsStudent loan borrowers won’t face missed payments penaltiesFewer students are enrolling in college
    If you’re still on the fence about partaking in Dry January, the financial savings are a notable incentive to consider.
    “Drinking alcohol is expensive,” said Casey McGuire Davidson, a sobriety coach. “Whether you’re opening a bottle of wine at home or having cocktails out at a bar, the money adds up quickly.”
    When Davidson stopped drinking in 2016, she found herself with an extra $500 in her first month. Eight years later, she estimates that she has saved more than $48,000.

    “My husband always comments on what a cheap date I am now that I no longer drink,” Davidson said.
    Between 15% and 19% of people have participated in Dry January over the past couple of years, according to research by Morning Consult.

    One month can lead to ‘lasting change’

    Even a month without drinking can have long-term benefits on your wallet and health, experts say.
    People in Britain who participated in Dry January were drinking less than they used to even six months after the challenge, a 2016 study in Health Psychology found.
    “It is a great way for people to be mindful about how much they are drinking,” said certified financial planner and physician Carolyn McClanahan, founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida. McClanahan, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council, is also trying Dry January.
    “Engaging in a month-long challenge like Dry January often serves as a catalyst for lasting change,” Davidson added.
    Many of her clients, she said, are concerned about what they’re spending on alcohol, “while others don’t even want to add up the money because they don’t really want to know.”
    You can estimate how much your drinking habit costs you on the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services website, with its alcohol spending calculator.
    Four drinks a week at $10 a pop — roughly the typical price for a glass of wine at a bar or restaurant — would cost $2,080 a year. Seven drinks a week at that price point would be a $3,640 annual expense. Meanwhile, the norm for a glass of wine in the Bay Area is now $17, while a $20 cocktail in New York is not unusual.

    Throughout the month, it can be motivating to keep a tally of the money you are not spending, Davidson said. On the app I’m Done Drinking, you can get a breakdown of how much you’re saving — in dollars and calories.
    “It provides a tangible representation of progress,” Davidson said.

    Savings go beyond the cost of alcohol

    The savings of stopping drinking or cutting back go far beyond the alcohol itself, said Danielle Dick, a psychologist and the director of the Rutgers Addiction Research Center.
    “When you’re under the influence, you may be more likely to spend money in other reckless ways,” Dick said. For example, people may make impulsive online purchases when they’re inebriated, she said.

    Alena Frolova | Moment | Getty Images

    “It’s likely that practicing Dry January will also cut back on restaurant meals, saving substantial dollars,” added CFP Cathy Curtis, founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning in Oakland, California.
    Curtis, who is also a member of CNBC’s FA Council, is not doing Dry January. She and her husband, Rob, spent the new year in wine country in California.
    Still, she said, “the older I get, the more mindful I am about alcohol consumption because I realize it is not good for my health.” “Damp Drinking,” which focuses on moderating alcohol consumption, has been trending on TikTok.
    Indeed, “the less alcohol you drink, the lower your risk for cancer,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states on its website. Many studies have also found that participation in Alcoholics Anonymous lowered health-care costs.
    “For individuals who are heavier drinkers, reducing substance use over time could reduce many health-related expenses,” Dick said.
    CNBC FA Council member Ivory Johnson, a CFP and founder of Delancey Wealth Management in Washington, D.C., put it another way: “Getting sick is a lot more expensive than a bottle of bourbon,” he said.Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO: More

  • in

    Mortgages, auto loans, credit cards: Expert predictions for interest rates in 2024

    The Federal Reserve’s period of policy tightening appears to be over, opening the door to lower borrowing costs in the year ahead.
    Bankrate’s chief financial analyst Greg McBride says most types of consumer loans will be cheaper by the end of 2024.
    From mortgage rates and credit cards to auto loans and savings accounts, here are his predictions for where rates are headed.

    The Federal Reserve’s effort to bring down inflation has so far been successful, a rare feat in economic history.
    The central bank signaled in its latest economic projections that it will cut interest rates in 2024 even with the economy still growing, which would be the sought-after path to a “soft landing,” where inflation returns to the Fed’s 2% target without causing a significant rise in unemployment.

    “Rates are headed lower,” said Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo. “For consumers, borrowing costs would fall accordingly.”
    More from Personal Finance:Americans are ‘doom spending’ The first step to setting an annual budgetThis strategy can help you meet New Year’s resolution goals
    Most Americans can expect to see their financing expenses ease in the year ahead, but not by much, cautioned Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.
    “We are in a high interest rate environment, and we’re going to be in a high interest rate environment a year from now,” he said. “Any Fed cuts are going to be modest relative to the significant increase in rates since early 2022.”
    Although Fed officials indicated as many as three cuts coming this year, McBride expects only two potential quarter-point decreases toward the second half of 2024. Still, that will make it cheaper to borrow.

    From mortgage rates and credit cards to auto loans and savings accounts, here are his predictions for where rates are headed in the year ahead:
    Prediction: Credit card rates fall just below 20%
    Because of the central bank’s rate hike cycle, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% in March 2022 to nearly 21% today — an all-time high.
    Going forward, annual percentage rates aren’t likely to improve much. Credit card rates won’t come down until the Fed starts cutting and even then, they will only ease off extremely high levels, according to McBride.
    “The average rate will remain above the 20% threshold for most of the year,” he said, “and eventually dip to 19.9% by the end of 2024 as the Fed cuts rates.”
    Prediction: Mortgage rates decline to 5.75%
    Thanks to higher mortgage rates, 2023 was the least affordable homebuying year in at least 11 years, according to a report from real estate company Redfin.
    But rates are already significantly lower since hitting 8% in October. Now, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 6.9%, up from 4.4% when the Fed started raising rates in March of 2022 and 3.27% at the end of 2021, according to Bankrate.
    McBride also expects mortgage rates to continue to ease in 2024 but not return to their pandemic-era lows. “Mortgage rates will spend the bulk of the year in the 6% range,” he said, “with movement below 6% confined to the second half of the year.”
    Prediction: Auto loan rates edge down to 7%
    When it comes to their cars, more consumers are facing monthly payments that they can barely afford, thanks to higher vehicle prices and elevated interest rates on new loans.
    The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now 7.71%, up from 4% when the Fed started raising rates, according to Bankrate. However, rate cuts from the Fed will take some of the edge off of the rising cost of financing a car, McBride said, helped in part by competition between lenders.
    McBride expects five-year new car loans to drop to 7% by the end of the year.
    Prediction: High-yield savings rates stay over 4%
    Top-yielding online savings account rates have made significant moves along with changes in the target federal funds rate and are now paying more than 5% — the most savers have been able to earn in nearly two decades — up from around 1% in 2022, according to Bankrate.
    Even though those rates have likely peaked, “yields are expected to remain at the highest levels in over a decade despite two rate cuts from the Fed,” McBride said.
    According to his forecast, the highest-yielding offers on the market will still be at 4.45% in the year ahead. “It will still be a banner year for savers when those returns are measured against a lower inflation rate,” McBride said.
    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

    Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube. More

  • in

    ‘Big Short’ investor Steve Eisman worries ‘everybody is coming into the year feeling too good,’ sees room for disappointment

    Monday – Friday, 5:00 – 6:00 PM ET

    Fast Money Podcast
    Full Episodes

    Investor Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame is questioning the level of bullishness on Wall Street — even with the market’s tepid start to the year.
    From enthusiasm surrounding the “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks to expectations for multiple interest rate cuts this year, Eisman believes there’s little tolerance for things going wrong.

    “Long term, I’m still very bullish. But near term I just worry that everybody is coming into the year feeling too good,” the Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.
    On the year’s first day of trading, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.6% percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and the Dow eked out a gain. The major indexes are coming off a historically strong year: The Nasdaq rallied 43%, while the S&P 500 soared 24%. The 30-stock Dow was up nearly 14% in 2023.
    “The market climbed a wall of worry the whole year. So, now here we are a year later, and everybody including me has a pretty benign view of the economy,” Eisman said. “It’s just that everybody is coming into the year so bullish that if there are any disappointments, you know, what’s going to hold the market up?”
    Eisman notes that fewer rate hikes than expected in 2024 could emerge as a negative short-term catalyst. The Federal Reserve has penciled in three rate cuts this year, while fed funds futures pricing suggests even more trimming. Eisman thinks these expectations are too aggressive.
    “The Fed is still petrified of making the mistake that [former Fed Chief Paul] Volcker made in the early ’80s where he stopped raising rates, and inflation got out of control again,” said Eisman. “If I’m the Fed and I’m looking at the Volcker lesson, I say to myself ‘What’s my rush? Inflation has come in.'”

    Yet, Eisman suggests it’s still a wait-and-see situation.
    “If you had to lay your life on the line, I’d say one [cut] unless there’s a recession. If there’s no recession, I don’t see any reason why the Fed needs to be aggressive at cutting rates,” he said. “If I’m in [Fed chief Jerome] Powell’s seat, I pat myself on the back and say ‘job well done.'”

    ‘Housing stocks are justified’

    Eisman, who’s known for predicting the 2007-2008 housing market collapse and profiting from it, appears to be warming up to homebuilding stocks.
    The investor said on “Fast Money” in October it was a group he was avoiding. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, which tracks the group, is up 25% since that interview and 57% over the past 52 weeks.
    “The housing stocks are justified in the sense that the homebuilders have great balance sheets. They’re able to buy down rates to their customers, so that the customers can afford to buy new homes,” he said. “There’s a shortage of new homes.”
    However, Eisman skips housing among his top 2024 top plays. He particularly likes areas of technology and infrastructure.
    Disclaimer More