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The number of students earning college degrees fell for the second year in a row, according to a report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
While fewer students completed degrees, more students earned a certificate this year than in any of the last 10 years.

PhotoAlto/Dinoco Greco

College degree earners fall by nearly 3%

For the second year in a row, the number of students earning an undergraduate degree declined, according to a recent report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Overall, undergraduate degree earners fell by nearly 3% in the 2022-23 academic year — the steepest decline ever recorded, the report found, while bachelor’s degree earners sank to the lowest level in nearly a decade after notching a one-year loss of almost 100,000 graduates.
Meanwhile, the number of students earning a certificate hit a 10-year high, largely due to the growth in vocational programs.
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“That number of newly minted college graduates has been shrinking,” said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Nationwide, enrollment has lagged since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, when a significant number of students decided against a four-year degree in favor of joining the workforce or completing a certificate program instead.
High schoolers are putting more emphasis on career training and post-college employment, other reports also show.
Now, fewer students are pursuing a four-year degree and more students are dropping out due to financial constraints, among other factors, Shapiro said.
“Shorter-term certificates have picked up some of the slack, accelerating declines in associate and bachelor’s degree earners mean fewer new college graduates this year,” Shapiro said.

Community college pathway is ‘at risk’ 

Historically, a two-year degree was considered an economical alternative to a bachelor’s, or even a more affordable pathway to a four-year college. These days, the latter is less likely to be the case.
In fact, just 16% of all community college students ultimately attain a bachelor’s degree, according to recent reports by the Community College Research Center at Columbia University, the Aspen Institute College Excellence Program and the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Community college as a stepping stone is “at risk,” Shapiro said, and “that’s very bad news.”
“That escalator… has been one of the most promising, if not always the most successful, paths to access to the bachelor’s degree for lower-income and disadvantaged students,” Shapiro said. “Those students, in particular, will face more challenges.”

FAFSA issues could also hurt enrollment

Ongoing problems with the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid have also discouraged many high school seniors from applying for the financial aid necessary to afford college. Those who opt out are often low-income students who stand to benefit most from financial aid and increasingly feel priced out of a postsecondary education.
The FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal aid money, including loans, work-study and grants, the latter of which are the most desirable kinds of assistance because they typically do not need to be repaid.
Submitting a FAFSA is also one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, according to the National College Attainment Network. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to immediately enroll in college. 

As of the latest update, only roughly 7 million 2024-25 FAFSA applications have been submitted and sent to schools, according to the U.S. Department of Education, less than half of the more than 17 million students who use the FAFSA in ordinary years.
Still, it’s too soon to say whether those remaining students will ultimately apply for aid and how that could impact their decisions about college in the fall, according to Sandy Baum, senior fellow at Urban Institute’s Center on Education Data and Policy.
“If students don’t fill it out, some will not go to college,” Baum said.

Arrows pointing outwards

Steadily, college is becoming a path for only those with the means to pay for it, other reports also show.
At the same time, deep cuts in state funding for higher education have pushed more of the costs onto students and paved the way for significant tuition increases.
Higher education already costs more than most families can afford, and costs are still rising, with the sticker price at some colleges now nearing $100,000 a year. 
“Tuition has definitely been going up faster than inflation for decades and incomes have not kept up,” Baum said.
“It’s a serious problem,” she added, but “it’s not a new problem.”

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The Biden administration announced Friday it was forgiving student debt for another 277,000 borrowers.
After the Supreme Court struck down President Joe Biden’s wide-scale debt cancellation plan, the president directed the U.S. Department of Education to examine its existing authority to reduce and eliminate students’ debts.
Mainly by improving current loan relief programs, the department has cleared the education debts of 4.3 million people, totaling $153 billion in aid, while Biden has been in office.

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about student loan debt forgiveness in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 24, 2022.
Evan Vucci | AP

Here is who benefits from this round of forgiveness

In this round of forgiveness, more than 206,000 borrowers will collectively get $3.6 billion in debt erased through the Biden administration’s new Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan, due to the provision that allows for debt forgiveness after shorter periods than other income-driven repayment plans for those who originally took out small amounts for college.
More than 65,000 borrowers will have their loans canceled through fixes to the Department of Education’s income-driven repayment plans, and 4,600 borrowers are benefiting from the improvements to the government’s loan forgiveness program for public servants. Aid for these groups in this round of forgiveness amounts to $3.5 billion and $300 million, respectively.

Biden’s 2020 campaign promise to erase student debt was thwarted at the Supreme Court last June. The conservative justices ruled that Biden’s $400 billion loan cancellation plan was unconstitutional.

After that, the president directed the Department of Education to examine its existing authority to reduce and eliminate students’ debts. Mainly by improving current loan relief programs, the department has cleared the federal education loans of 4.3 million people, totaling $153 billion in aid, while Biden has been in office.

Relief is a result of fixes to federal student loan system

Income-driven repayment plans, which cap a borrower’s monthly bill at a share of their discretionary earnings, are supposed to lead to debt cancellation after a certain period of time. However, loan servicers weren’t always keeping accurate track of borrowers’ payments, advocates say. As a result, few people received the promised relief in the past.
The Biden administration has been reviewing borrowers’ payment timelines and allowing them to get credit for periods that historically didn’t qualify, such as during certain deferments and forbearances.
It also rolled out a new income-driven repayment plan, the SAVE plan, in which borrowers with smaller loan balances can get debt forgiveness after as little as 10 years.
The Education Dept. has been going over the accounts of borrowers pursuing Public Service Loan Forgiveness too, trying to deliver more people relief under the program.
Previously, PSLF was famously complicated and excluded borrowers on technicalities, including their federal loan type, even if they were working a qualifying public service job. The Biden administration has loosened some of these rules.
The president also rolled out his wide-scale student loan forgiveness do-over plan earlier this week. More

Some segments of the U.S. economy have deflated over the past year, according to the consumer price index. That means their prices have declined.
The cost of household goods, travel and some grocery items like apples have fallen, for example.
The dynamic comes as CPI data came in hotter than expected for the month of March.

Kosamtu | E+ | Getty Images

Investors are jittery following a hotter-than-expected batch of inflation data on Wednesday, suggesting the fight to rein in consumer prices may take longer than expected.
But there are categories of goods and services that have deflated — that is, their prices have actually dropped.

Consumers have primarily seen prices falling for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, though they’ve also declined for some food and energy-related products, too.

“You’re still seeing some pockets of deflation,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.
That downward pressure has tamed in recent months, though, as some supply-and-demand dynamics that were thrown out of whack by the Covid pandemic have normalized, House said.
Deflation is “not quite the monolith it was maybe last year,” she said.

The home goods craze is over

Demand for those goods soared early in the pandemic era as consumers were confined to their homes and couldn’t spend on things like travel or concerts.

The health crisis also snarled global supply chains, meaning volume couldn’t keep pace with demand for those goods.
Such supply-and-demand dynamics drove up prices. Now, though, they are falling back to earth.

Prices for household furnishings have fallen consistently for about a year, for example, House said.
In addition, laundry equipment prices are down 14.6% from the year-earlier period, according to the consumer price index for the month of March. Among all household appliances, prices are also down 6.3% during that period.
Meanwhile, prices have fallen for furniture and bedding (down 3.8%), dishes and flatware (-3.9%), toys (-8.2%), outdoor equipment and supplies (-4.9%) and sporting goods (-2.2%).
The initial pandemic-era craze for consumers to fix up their homes and upgrade their home offices has diminished, cooling prices.
“There are only so many throw pillows that you need,” House said.

The U.S. dollar has also been historically strong relative to other global currencies, a dynamic that helps rein in prices for goods, economists said. This makes it less expensive for U.S. companies to import goods from overseas, since the dollar can buy more.
The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is higher than at any pre-pandemic point dating to at least 2006, according to Federal Reserve data. The index gauges the dollar’s appreciation relative to currencies of the nation’s main trading partners such as the euro, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen.

Why deflation is happening elsewhere

Prices for new and used vehicles have also deflated slightly over the past year, by 0.1% and 2.2%, respectively. They were among the first categories to surge when the economy reopened broadly early in 2021, amid a shortage of semiconductor chips essential for manufacturing.
Meanwhile, travel costs for airfare, hotels and rental cars have also declined by a respective 7.1%, 2.4% and 8.8% since March 2023.
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Airlines have increased the volume of available seats for travelers by flying larger planes on domestic routes, which has helped push down prices, for example, according to Hayley Berg, lead economist at travel site Hopper.
The price of jet fuel, a key input cost for airlines, is also down relative to last year, Berg said. Fuel oil is down 3.7% annually, according to CPI data, though rising oil prices have lifted those of other energy commodities like gasoline in recent months.
Broadly, grocery prices “have come to a standstill,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Some food categories like ham, cheese and coffee have declined. Notably, consumers have seen apple prices fall 10.1% in the past year amid burgeoning supply.

Elsewhere, some deflationary dynamics may happen only on paper.
For example, in the CPI data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics controls for quality improvements over time. Electronics such as televisions, cellphones and computers continually get better, meaning consumers generally get more for the same amount of money.
That shows up as a price decline in the CPI data.

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The first-quarter estimated tax deadline for 2024 is April 15, which coincides with most taxpayers’ federal tax due date.
You may need to make estimated tax payments for income from self-employment, gig economy work, investment earnings and more.
Tax filers may avoid late payment penalties by sending 90% of 2024 taxes or 100% of 2023 levies if adjusted gross income is less than $150,000.

millann | Getty

If you are racing to file taxes, you could miss another key deadline: the April 15 due date for first-quarter estimated tax payments.
Estimated tax payments typically apply to earnings from gig economy work, freelancing, small business, retirement or investing, which may have no tax withholdings.

If you expect to owe at least $1,000 in taxes, you must make your first-quarter estimated payment for 2024 by April 15.
That can be “tricky” for certain tax filers with federal taxes due on the same day, according to certified public accountant Tom Wheelwright, CEO of WealthAbility.
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Estimated tax payments can help filers avoid penalties, the IRS reminded taxpayers earlier this month. The 2024 payment due dates are April 15, June 17, Sept. 16 and Jan. 15, 2025.
If you skip these payment deadlines, you could trigger an interest-based penalty calculated with the current interest rate and balance due. The penalty compounds daily.

There is a ‘measuring stick’ for payments

Calculating quarterly estimated payments can be confusing for some taxpayers, experts say.
But there is a “measuring stick” to make it simpler, according to certified financial planner Eric Bronnenkant, head of tax at Betterment, a digital investment advisor. 
As long as your payments meet the “safe harbor” rules from the IRS, there won’t be penalties, explained Bronnenkant, who is also a certified public accountant.

You meet those requirements by paying at least 90% of the current year’s tax liability or 100% of last year’s taxes, whichever is smaller.
For example, if you owed $20,000 for 2023, you could divide that by four and pay $5,000 each quarter to meet the safe harbor rules, Bronnenkant said.
The safe harbor jumps to 110% if last year’s adjusted gross income was $150,000 or higher. You can find adjusted gross income on line 11 of Form 1040 from your 2023 tax return.
Of course, you could still owe taxes for 2024 if you earn more than expected and do not adjust your tax payments accordingly.

How to make quarterly estimated tax payments

You can pay quarterly taxes via your IRS online account, which “streamlines” the process because you can check payment history, monitor pending payments and more, according to the agency. 
“Make sure you get the confirmation,” Wheelwright said. “Don’t assume it went through.”
Filers without an IRS account can also pay online via IRS Direct Pay or the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Electronic Federal Tax Payment System, or EFTPS.
For those who prefer payment by mail, Wheelwright recommends sending it by certified mail with a return receipt because you may “have to prove that you made it on time.”

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New Consumer Price Index data shows inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Here’s how to tell just how much those headline numbers affect your bottom line.

A customer picks up a seasoning at a supermarket in Tokyo on February 27, 2024.
Kazuhiro Nogi | Afp | Getty Images

New government inflation data released on Wednesday came in hotter than expected.
That may not be a surprise to consumers who are still feeling the weight of higher prices.

Inflation — as measured by the consumer price index — rose 3.5% from a year ago and 0.4% for the month. The consumer price index, or CPI, tracks the average changes in prices over time for consumer certain goods and services.
“The CPI basket and its movements are meant to be broadly indicative of the price experiences of a wide swath of Americans over time,” said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School.
For individuals, that means headline inflation numbers may reflect their own experience more or less at any given point in time, he said.

Categories including juices and drinks, motor vehicle insurance or household repairs are up by double-digit percentages in the past 12 months, the CPI data shows.
Consumers who depend on those products and services are likely feeling the effects of inflation.

“People continue to feel the pain of higher prices,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James, despite the CPI having declined from its 9.1% year-over-year peak in 2022.
“And that is something that at a feeling level is still negative, because they don’t see any relief,” Aleman said.

How to calculate your personal inflation rate

To get a better sense of how inflation is affecting you and your family, it can help to calculate your personal inflation rate.
“To even understand how inflation affects you, you need to know how the purchases that you make regularly are changing, if at all,” said Douglas Boneparth, a certified financial planner and president and founder of Bone Fide Wealth, a wealth management firm based in New York City.
To get started, gather your spending data.
To come up with a specific calculation as to how inflation is affecting you, subtract your total monthly spending for March 2023 from your total for March 2024. Then, divide that number by your March 2023 spending to get your personal inflation rate.
To get a quicker result, an online personal inflation calculator — like this one from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta — can help.
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Even a more informal look at your grocery spending over the past several months can help you gauge how your bill is changing, said Boneparth, a member of the CNBC FA Council.
With that, you may notice how what you spend on certain categories — milk, eggs, chicken or beef, for example — has fluctuated.
For items that have risen in cost, ask yourself whether you might consider not spending on that particular item at all, Boneparth said. If you can’t do without it, consider whether you might be able to substitute in other products or change the frequency with which you buy them, he said.

Wage increases affect your inflation experience

Other factors beyond your monthly spending determine how inflation has affected you.
The CPI is up a little under 18% since three years ago, according to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.
Consequently, if your wages haven’t increased by that much over the same period, you’re more likely to feel the pinch of higher prices.
That can contribute to a lack of savings and higher credit card debt, financial consequences many Americans are showing. About 60% of households are living paycheck to paycheck, McBride said.

But the good news is that real wages, or wages adjusted for inflation, are now higher, Aleman said.
Consequently, many individuals are better off today than they were a year or two years ago, he said.
“Of course, everybody would want prices to go back to pre-pandemic,” Aleman said.
Another point to keep in mind is that the CPI typically overstates inflation, Aleman said. That is why the Federal Reserve tends to prefer another inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index. The PCE was up 2.8% over the past 12 months, according to the latest data for the month of February. More

The Biden administration is moving ahead quickly with its new student loan forgiveness plan, with hopes of starting to wipe out people’s debts as soon as this fall.
That action could prove crucial in the upcoming presidential election, experts say.

US President Joe Biden speaks about student loan relief at Madison College in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 8, 2024. 
Andrew Caballero-reynolds | AFP | Getty Images

A race to still forgive debt after Supreme Court verdict

President Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign promise to erase student debt was thwarted at the Supreme Court last June. The conservative justices ruled that Biden’s $400 billion loan cancellation plan was unconstitutional.
After that, the president directed the U.S. Department of Education to examine its existing authority to forgive student debt. Mainly by improving current loan relief programs, the department has cleared the education debts of 4 million people, totaling $146 billion in aid, while Biden has been in office.
Yet Biden has been under intense pressure to do more.
“Over 40 million people were promised cancellation, a number that dwarfs the [people] who have received some measure of relief,” said Astra Taylor, co-founder of the Debt Collective, a union for debtors.

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On Monday, at an event in Madison, Wisconsin, Biden blamed the Supreme Court and Republicans for stopping his first relief plan.
“Tens of millions of people’s debt was literally about to get canceled, but then some of my Republican friends, elected officials and special interests sued us, and the Supreme Court blocked us,” Biden said. “But that didn’t stop us.”
The president announced the details of his Plan B for student loan forgiveness, which is narrower than his first attempt but could still reach tens of millions of people.
Instead of canceling loans for nearly all federal student loan borrowers, this program targets the aid at certain groups of people, including those experiencing financial hardship and graduates of poor-quality schools. Meanwhile, some 25 million people could get interest on their debt cleared under the plan.

Can Biden get borrowers relief by November?

Kantrowitz said he anticipates the Biden administration will try to get people the new relief before they cast their votes in November.
Almost half of voters in a recent survey, or 48%, said canceling student loan debt is an important issue to them in the 2024 presidential and congressional elections. SocialSphere, a research and consulting firm, polled 3,812 registered voters, including 2,601 Gen Z and millennial respondents, in mid-March.

Forgiving student debt could especially help Biden with young voters, a demographic he has been struggling with. About 70% of Gen Z respondents said student debt cancellation was important to them in the election, that same survey found.
The issue is a chance for Biden to differentiate himself from his likely Republican opponent Donald Trump, who has a record of opposing debt relief for students.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at 40 Wall Street on March 25, 2024 in New York City. 
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

While in office, the former president called for the elimination of the popular Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, signed into law by President George W. Bush in 2007. Trump also sided with the Supreme Court in its ruling to strike down Biden’s plan.
“Today, the Supreme Court also ruled that President Biden cannot wipe out hundreds of billions, perhaps trillions of dollars, in student loan debt, which would have been very unfair to the millions and millions of people who paid their debt through hard work and diligence; very unfair,” Trump said at a campaign event in June 2023. 

Legal threats already brewing

Biden rolled out his first student loan forgiveness plan in August 2022 through an executive action, which he hoped would allow him to deliver the relief quickly. Borrowers were told they could expect the relief within six weeks after applying.
That timeline was stymied, of course, by legal challenges and eventually dashed at the Supreme Court.

Issues like student loan forgiveness, which present a sharp contrast between Democrats and Republicans, are more likely to impact the election.

Mark Kantrowitz
higher education expert

Now, Biden has turned to the negotiated rulemaking process, a difference he hopes will make it harder for the courts to stop him this time.
“The rulemaking process is stronger than executive action,” Kantrowitz said.
But the procedure can be lengthy, with several steps. It involves a committee of negotiators meeting and proposing a rule, the publishing of that proposed rule in the Federal Register and then a public comment period. After all these steps, the U.S. Department of Education can publish its final rule.
As of now, the negotiators have wrapped up their sessions and the Biden administration is poised to release its proposal. In theory, the Education Department could publish its final rule sometime this summer, Kantrowitz said.
Although the regulations legally wouldn’t go into effect until July 2025 based on that timeline, Education Department officials could choose to make some of the provisions effective sooner simply by posting a note in the Federal Register, Kantrowitz said.
“So they could easily implement it before the election,” he said.
However, legal challenges to the plan could delay that goal. Such threats are already brewing.
On Monday, after Biden announced his Plan B for student loan forgiveness, Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey, a Republican, wrote on X that the president “is trying to unabashedly eclipse the Constitution.”
“See you in court,” Bailey wrote.
Correction: President Biden issued an executive order tied to student loan forgiveness in August 2022. An earlier version misstated the phrase.

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The federal tax deadline is April 15 for most taxpayers and you can still file for an extension, which pushes the due date to Oct. 15.
You can file for an extension for free online and it “takes minutes,” one tax pro said.
But you still must pay your estimated tax balance by the original due date to avoid penalties and interest.

Cavan Images | Getty Images

If you need more time for your taxes, there’s a quick, free way to file a federal tax extension online, according to experts.
This season, 1 in 4 Americans don’t feel prepared to file their taxes — and 29% admit to procrastinating — according to a January survey from IPX1031, an investment property exchange service.

Luckily, filing for a federal tax extension “takes minutes,” according to Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.
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The federal tax deadline is April 15 for most taxpayers. But you have through that due date to file an extension, which pushes the deadline by six months to Oct. 15. Some taxpayers already have a federal extension due to natural disaster declarations.
Without the extension, your balance triggers the failure to file penalty, which is worth 5% of your unpaid taxes per month or partial month, capped at 25%.

However, the “extension to file is not an extension to pay,” warned CFP Sean Lovison, founder of Philadelphia-area Purpose Built Financial Services.

“An extension gives you more time to gather documents and complete your return, but taxes owed are still due by the original deadline,” said Lovison, who is also a certified public accountant.
You’ll minimize penalties and interest by paying “at least the safe harbor amount,” he said.
The safe harbor amount is at least 100% of last year’s taxes. The threshold jumps to 110% if your prior year’s adjusted gross income was $150,000 or more.

How to file a tax extension online for free

Taxpayers have a few free options to file a federal tax extension.
You can complete Form 4868 and mail it to the IRS. But experts urge filers to opt for digital options if possible.
Generally, it’s best to send information digitally to the IRS “because mail takes forever and it’s unreliable,” said Josh Youngblood, an enrolled agent and owner of The Youngblood Group, a Dallas-based tax firm.

The easiest option is selecting “extension” when making your estimated tax payment for 2023, experts say.
This processes your extension automatically and you won’t need to submit an additional form, according to the IRS.
You’ll see a confirmation immediately after submitting your estimated tax payment. But you should double-check the transaction in your IRS online account, Youngblood said.
There’s also an option to file your extension for free online via IRS Free File, a public-private partnership between the IRS and several tax software companies, regardless of your income.   

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The consumer price index rose 3.5% in March 2024, on an annual basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s up from 3.2% in February.
Elevated housing inflation has kept CPI readings stubbornly high. Gasoline prices also edged up.
There are some bright spots, such as food prices, though. Household buying power is also up over the past year as wage growth has outstripped inflation.

Eric Thayer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Inflation jumped in March as prices for consumer staples such as gasoline edged higher and those for housing remained stubbornly high, suggesting inflation may be a bit stickier than it seemed just a few months ago, economists said.
The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, rose 3.5% in March from a year ago, the U.S. Labor Department reported Wednesday. That’s up from 3.2% in February.

CPI measures how fast prices are changing across the U.S. economy. It measures everything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts, concert tickets and household appliances.

The March inflation reading is down significantly from its 9.1% pandemic-era peak in 2022, which was the highest level since 1981. However, it remains above policymakers’ long-term target, around 2%.
Progress in the inflation fight has somewhat flatlined in recent months.
“The disinflation has stalled out,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“The big rock in the way here is the cost of shelter,” Zandi said.

While housing costs have moderated, they account for the largest share of the CPI inflation index and “are still growing strongly,” he said.

Despite progress having stalled, broader evidence doesn’t suggest a renewed surge in inflation — though it may take longer than expected to bring the rate back to target, economists said. In fact, underlying inflation after stripping out shelter costs is already back to target, Zandi said.
“I still hold to the view that inflation is moderating,” Zandi said. “It’s just taking frustratingly long to get there.”

Household paychecks can buy more stuff, though

Higher oil and gas prices take a toll

Gasoline prices increased 1.7% from February to March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. This figure is adjusted to account for seasonal buying patterns.
Average U.S. pump prices were $3.52 a gallon on April 1, up from $3.35 on March 4, according to weekly data published by the Energy Information Administration.

The increase is largely attributable to higher oil prices. They’ve firmed amid a generally positive outlook for the global economy, meaning greater global oil demand, and controlled output among major oil-producing nations, meaning there hasn’t been a glut of oil, economists said.
Tensions in the Middle East may also be playing a role, Hamrick said.

Higher gas prices may filter through to higher prices elsewhere, since they factor into transportation and distribution costs for goods and even services such as food delivery, he said.
Higher energy prices are what worries Zandi most relative to inflation readings. It’s likely the upward trend will continue in coming months, and the dynamic negatively impacts consumer buying power and sentiment, he said.
“Nothing does more damage to the economy more quickly than rising oil and gasoline prices,” he said.

Other ‘notable’ areas of inflation

The BLS said that motor vehicle insurance, medical care, recreation and personal care, in addition to shelter, were “notable” contributors to “core” inflation, a reading that strips out volatile energy and food prices.
Shelter, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, apparel and personal care were notable contributors to monthly inflation from February to March, the agency said.

The overall monthly CPI reading, 0.4%, was much higher than the roughly 0.2% that would be expected on a consistent basis to bring inflation back to normal, economists said.
“There is no improvement here; we’re moving in the wrong direction,” Hamrick said.
“The usual trouble spots persist,” said Hamrick, who additionally called out costs for electricity and car maintenance and repairs.

Prices have fallen in some categories

Meanwhile, some consumer categories have seen improvement.
Prices fell for used cars and trucks, new vehicles and airline tickets between February and March, for example. They’re also down over the past year, by 2.2%, 0.1% and 7.1%, respectively, according to CPI data.
Lower prices for new and used cars should lead auto insurance and repair costs to fall as well, economists said.

Grocery prices are another bright spot, they said.
While some categories, such as eggs and pork chops, have seen recent upward movement, the overall “food at home” index stood at 0% on a monthly basis in both February and March.
“Food prices have come to a standstill,” Zandi said. “For most Americans, the thing that bothers them the most about inflation is high food prices.”

Supply-and-demand dynamics

At a high level, supply-and-demand imbalances are what trigger out-of-whack inflation.
For example, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains for goods. Americans’ buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — such as entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation.
Additionally, supply-and-demand dynamics in the labor market pushed wage growth to the highest level in decades, putting upward pressure on prices for services, which are more wage-sensitive.
Now that supply-chain issues are “pretty close to fixed,” there’s “little scope” for goods to contribute to disinflation moving forward, said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.

“You need services to take the mantle of disinflation,” because goods have “petered out,” she added.
Housing falls into the services category. It accounts for the largest share of the consumer price index, so disinflation in this category would likely have a large impact on inflation readings.
So far, housing inflation has remained stubbornly high — even as economists have predicted it would start moderating any day given broadly positive trends in prices for new tenant rental leases, for example.
“It seems to be taking a bit longer than people thought,” said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
“It’s coming,” he said. “It’s just a matter of when.” More