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The annual rate for Series I bonds could rise above 5% in November based on inflation and other factors, financial experts say.
That would be an increase from the current 4.3% interest through Oct. 31, but less than the 6.89% rate offered from November 2022 through April 2023.
However, the U.S. Department of the Treasury doesn’t disclose exactly how it decides the fixed rate for I bonds, which can be difficult to predict.

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The annual rate for newly purchased Series I bonds could rise above 5% in November based on inflation and other factors, financial experts say.
That would be an increase from the current 4.3% interest on I bond purchases made through Oct. 31. But it’s less than the 6.89% rate offered on I bonds bought between November 2022 through April 2023.

Backed by the U.S. government, demand for I bonds exploded over the past couple of years amid high inflation — and the November rate could be the fourth-highest yield since I bonds were introduced in 1998.
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The U.S. Department of the Treasury adjusts I bond rates every May and November and there are two parts to I bond yields: a variable and fixed portion.
The Treasury adjusts the variable rate every six months based on inflation. It can change the fixed rate every six months, too, but doesn’t always do so.
(The fixed portion of the I bond rate remains the same for investors after purchase. The variable rate portion resets every six months starting on the investor’s I bond purchase date, not when the Treasury Department announces rate adjustments. You can find the rate by purchase date here.)

Currently, the variable rate is 3.38% and the fixed rate is 0.9%, for a rounded combined yield of 4.30% on I bonds purchased between May 1 and Oct. 31.
Based on six months of consumer price index data, experts say the variable component is likely to rise to 3.94% in November, up from the current variable rate of 3.38%. That variable rate will change again in May 2024. 

The I bond fixed rate could increase

While the variable I bond rate can be calculated, based on the inflation changes over six months, the fixed rate portion is harder to predict, experts say.
“The big question is what the fixed rate is going to be,” said Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com, which tracks I bonds, among other assets.
The Treasury doesn’t disclose exactly how it decides on the fixed rate for I bonds, but Tumin expects it will rise based on higher yields from 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, another government-based, inflation-linked asset.
“That [fixed rate component] will be really impactful for long-term I bond investors,” he said.

That will be really impactful for long-term I bond investors.

Founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com

David Enna, founder of Tipswatch.com, a website that tracks TIPS and I bond rates, said “there are a lot of theories” about how the Treasury decides on the fixed rate, including market yields on TIPS, among other factors.
Enna also expects the fixed I bond rate to rise in November, depending on the spread between the current 0.9% fixed rate and the real yield of 10-year TIPS. The real yield reflects how much TIPS investors earn yearly above inflation until maturity.
If you expect real yields for 10-year TIPS to stay in the 2.3% to 2.4% range for the next six months, the Treasury “would be justified” to raise the fixed rate on I bonds to 1.4% or 1.5%, he said. More

Year-end Planning

Standard monthly Medicare Part B premiums will be $174.70 in 2024, up from $164.90 in 2023.
Beneficiaries with incomes above $103,000 for individuals and $206,000 for married couples will pay higher monthly rates.

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The standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B will increase by $9.80 per month in 2024, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
That means the standard monthly premium will go up to $174.70 in 2024, an increase from $164.90 in 2023. The new rate is in line with previous projections by Medicare trustees, which had estimated a $174.80 standard monthly premium for next year.

The annual deductible for Medicare Part B will be $240 in 2024, a $14 increase from the $226 annual deductible in 2023.
The Part B premium and deductible increases are mainly due to projected increases in health care spending, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Medicare Part B covers physician services, outpatient hospital services, some home health care services, durable medical equipment and certain other services not covered by Medicare Part A.

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Monthly Part B premium payments are typically deducted directly from Social Security benefit checks. Consequently, the size of Medicare Part B premiums affects just how much of the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment beneficiaries may see. In 2024, Social Security benefits will increase by 3.2%, the Social Security Administration announced on Thursday, resulting in a retirement benefit increase of more than $50 per month, on average.
One forecast from The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, had projected the standard monthly Medicare Part B premium could rise by as much as $5 more per month, for a total of $179.80 per month, following the approval of a new Alzheimer’s drug, Leqembi.

“We are relieved to learn that the Medicare Part B increase in 2024 won’t be as high as we initially feared,” The Senior Citizens League said in a statement.

High income beneficiaries pay more for Medicare Part B

The rate beneficiaries pay for Medicare Part B is determined by modified adjusted gross income on their federal tax returns.
Those who earn above certain income thresholds pay extra toward their Medicare Part B premiums in what is known as income-related monthly adjustment amounts, or IRMAA.
Income-related monthly adjustment amounts affect roughly 8% of people on Medicare Part B, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

In 2024, IRMAA charges will apply to individuals with more than $103,000 and married couples with more than $206,000 in modified adjusted gross income on their 2022 federal tax returns. That is up from $97,000 for individuals and $194,000 for married couples this year.
Costs for Medicare Part A, which covers inpatient hospital care, are also set to go up in 2024.
The Medicare Part A inpatient hospital deductible, which applies to the first 60 days of care, will go up to $1,632 in 2024, a $32 increase from $1,600 in 2023.
Beneficiaries then pay coinsurance amount of $408 per day, up from $400 in 2023, for the 61st through 90th day of hospitalization. That is followed by $816 per day, up from $800 in 2023, for lifetime reserve days.  More

Your Money

Women accounted for 31.2% of angel investors in the first two quarters of 2022, according to a report by Jeffrey E. Sohl at the Center for Venture Research at the University of New Hampshire. 
If you have the money and inclination, angel investing is “a window to innovation across the economy,” Jo Ann Corkran, co-CEO and managing partner of Golden Seeds, said at CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.

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Recent indicators show that women are increasingly eager to put their money to work outside of traditional portfolio offerings. 
For instance, women accounted for 31.2% of angel investors in the first two quarters of 2022, a slight increase from 30.3% in the same period in 2021, according to a report by Jeffrey E. Sohl at the Center for Venture Research at the University of New Hampshire. 

This is “an encouraging sign that women angels are an increasing active segment in the angel market,” especially as women are predicted to control the majority of the net worth in the U.S., the report said.
If you have the money and inclination, angel investing is “a window to innovation across the economy,” Jo Ann Corkran, co-CEO and managing partner of Golden Seeds, said Thursday at CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.
It doesn’t depend on the market cycle and innovation is always happening, she added.

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However, here’s the issue: Women don’t take enough risk when investing, said Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, at the summit.
Unlike venture capital firms, angel investors make their own decisions and use their own wealth in a startup’s initial stages, said Corkran.

“It’s a way for people to use their money, skills, experiences and networks to help companies that are in their own portfolios,” she added.
Here’s how advisors can better position clients to take advantage of this growing woman-led market opportunity, according to angel-investing experts.

How to help clients become angel investors

Financial advisors ought to keep angel investing in mind for clients as an option over portfolio investing because it has one of the highest rate of returns across all asset classes, said Corkran.
Over the long term, angel investing can bring a 25% to 35% in internal rate of returns (a metric used in financial analysis to estimate the profitability of potential investments), she added.
As women are projected to own as much as $93 trillion in assets globally as of this year, according to Boston Consulting Group, it’s in advisors’ best interest to engage female clients, said Tengler.

Research shows that two-thirds of women tend to lay off their financial advisors after becoming newly single, whether through divorce or by being widowed, she added.
Other studies have found women do about 60% more research and outperform male counterparts as investors, said Tengler.
Financial advisors can help their clients become angel investors by sharing resources on how to become familiar with risk by following these two practices:

Join an angel investing group: There are about 250 angel groups across the U.S. that work with different areas and sectors, said Corkran. Many offer training for new members on how to perform due diligence and risk assessments, she added.
Familiarize yourself: Enroll and subscribe to different associations that provide critical, original investor research, said Corkran. Moreover, read from industry and business publications weekly, said Tengler. “Start familiarizing yourself with the process and companies,” she added. More

Despite economic uncertainty, it’s still possible to build and preserve generational wealth, according to experts at CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.
“The No. 1 cause of great loss of wealth is concentration,” said Mel Lagomasino, CEO and managing partner of WE Family Offices.

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Despite economic uncertainty, it’s still possible to build and preserve generational wealth, experts said Thursday at CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.  
“There’s a real chance of a soft landing” for the economy, said Mel Lagomasino, CEO and managing partner of WE Family Offices, which has locations in New York City and Miami. “But I think we’ll still have an earnings recession,” she said, pointing to rising costs of labor amid worker strikes.

While rising interest rates have triggered stock market volatility, they have created competitive options for investors. “Now for a change, they’re getting paid,” Lagomasino said. “They can put money in very liquid, very safe investments and get 5%, 6% or 7%.”

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But through the end of 2023, “it’s going to be tricky, particularly with the geopolitical environment,” she said, urging investors to stay “very liquid.”

Biggest threats to generational wealth

With some experts still predicting a recession, experts at the summit said it’s also important to protect generational wealth.
“The No. 1 cause of great loss of wealth is concentration,” said Lagomasino, emphasizing the risk of having “a lot of eggs in one basket.”

The No.1 cause of great loss of wealth is concentration.

Mel Lagomasino
CEO and managing partner of WE Family Offices

Concentration risk was magnified in the tech community during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic earlier this year, said Rodney Williams, co-founder of SoLo Funds. “That effect was felt across so many different areas.”

That’s why “diversification is key,” he said.
Leverage is another big risk, especially when paired with excess spending, Lagomasino said. It can be a “toxic cocktail” for an investor who hasn’t diversified. 
“You can concentrate for a moment in time and then you diversify,” Williams added. “That’s the game.”   More

Year-end Planning

How much retirees pay for Medicare Part B premiums is based on their incomes.
An income increase of just $1 may trigger higher rates.
Here’s how year-end tax strategies may influence how much retirees pay for Medicare Part B coverage in future years.

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Social Security beneficiaries are set to receive a 3.2% increase to their benefits in 2024 based on the annual cost-of-living adjustment, the Social Security Administration announced on Thursday.
The change will result in an estimated Social Security retirement benefit increase of more than $50 per month, on average. The average monthly retirement benefit for workers will be $1,907, up from $1,848 this year, according to the Social Security Administration.

But beneficiaries won’t know exactly how much of an increase they will see until December, when they receive their annual benefit statements, Mary Beth Franklin, a certified financial planner and Social Security expert, said Thursday during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit.

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One factor that may offset those benefit increases is the size of Medicare Part B premiums, which are typically deducted directly from monthly Social Security checks.
“You will be getting a larger Social Security benefit next year,” Franklin said.
“But remember, depending on your income, you may also be paying a lot more for Medicare,” Franklin said.

Medicare Part B premiums are based on income

Medicare Part B covers physician services, outpatient hospital services, some home health care services, durable medical equipment and certain other services not covered by Medicare Part A.

Medicare Part B premiums for 2024 have not yet been announced. The Medicare trustees have projected the standard monthly premium may be $174.80 in 2024, up from $164.90 in 2023.
But some beneficiaries may pay much higher rates based on their incomes, in what is known as income-related monthly adjustment amounts, or IRMAA.
In 2023, you pay the $164.90 standard Part B premium if you file individually and have $97,000 or less (or $194,000 or less for couples) in modified adjusted gross income on your federal tax return in 2021.
Those monthly premiums go up to as much as $560.50 per month for individuals with incomes of $500,000 and up, or couples with $750,000 and up.
No matter the monthly Part B premium rate, beneficiaries get the “exact same Medicare services,” according to Franklin.

It is truly like a hurricane for your health care costs in retirement.

Mary Beth Franklin
CFP and Social Security expert

If your income goes up by even $1, you may be bumped up to a higher Medicare Part B premium tier and have to pay extra.
“It is truly like a hurricane for your health care costs in retirement,” Franklin said.
In 2024, the monthly Part B premiums will be based on information in 2022 federal tax returns.
Beneficiaries and their financial advisors would be wise to pay attention to how their incomes may change, and therefore affect Medicare Part B premium rates, when implementing three year-end tax strategies, Franklin said.

1. Roth conversions

A Roth conversion happens when pre-tax funds from a traditional IRA or an eligible qualified retirement plan like a 401(k) are moved to a post-tax retirement account.
While this triggers an immediate tax bill because that money is treated as income for the year, it frees up the possibility for tax-free retirement withdrawals later.
However, that extra income for this year may trigger higher Medicare Part B premiums later, Franklin warned.
“Advisors may want to reach out to their clients and say, ‘Remember, for long-term tax planning purposes, we did that Roth IRA conversion?” Franklin said. “‘Your Medicare premium may go up. But it might just be a one-year hit.'”

2. Tax loss harvesting

As the year ends, one popular strategy advisors may employ is tax loss harvesting, where some investments are sold at a loss to offset the capital gains owed on other profitable investments.
This strategy may help reduce adjusted gross income and future Medicare premiums, Franklin said.

3. Qualified charitable distributions

Retirees who are taking distributions from IRAs and who want to make charitable donations may want to consider making those contributions directly from their retirement accounts in what is known as a qualified charitable distribution.
“That money does not show up on your tax return, and will not boost your income taxes or your future Medicare premiums,” Franklin said.
Of note, even though required minimum distributions now start at age 73 (if you reach age 72 after Dec. 31, 2022), qualified charitable distributions are still available to retirees ages 70½ or older, Franklin noted. More

The housing market is dealing with several “tricky” dynamics, said Tracy Kasper, president of the National Association of Realtors.
Those dynamics include an “inventory crisis” and the highest mortgage rates in decades.

Prospective buyers visit an open house for sale in Alexandria, Virginia.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

The housing market is dealing with several “tricky” dynamics, according to Tracy Kasper, president of the National Association of Realtors.
“What we’ve experienced over the last probably 12 to 18 months is what I really like to call a leveling,” Kasper said Thursday during CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.

That slowdown in home sales comes after “exponential increases year over year” during the Covid-19 pandemic, Kasper said.
With fewer people selling their houses, she said, there is now an “inventory crisis.”
“We’ve seen a crunch — our first-time homebuyers are struggling,” she added.

First-time homebuyers’ woes

During the Covid-19 pandemic, first-time homebuyers found it hard to compete with other buyers who had more cash to spare, Kasper said.
Now, they simply can’t find anything as current homeowners are reluctant to put their house on the market and give up existing low-rate mortgage.

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Mortgage rates are currently approaching 8%, the highest level in decades, and have priced many first-time homebuyers out of the market, Kasper said.
Higher rates add to monthly payments, which can mean it’s harder to qualify for a mortgage. Last year, lenders were denied loan applications due to “insufficient income” more often than any other point since records began in 2018, according to a new report from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
“In most cases, income did not increase at the pace of average mortgage payments,” certified financial planner Barry Glassman, founder and president of Glassman Wealth Services in McLean, Virginia, recently told CNBC.
Glassman is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
Given these obstacles, Kasper said real estate insiders are desperately seeking ways to increase inventory, including pushing for government incentives such as tax breaks for sellers.
“We’re looking for any conversation that we can have, that would open up that inventory,” Kasper said.
Housing and banking groups also sent a letter to the Federal Reserve this month, strongly encouraging the central bank to not contemplate further rate hikes. More

People looking to help those affected by the Israel-Gaza crisis can consider donating to charities working on the ground.
People want to make sure they’re giving their money to legitimate charities that are making a difference, experts say.
Here’s what to know about giving smartly and safely.

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People looking to help those affected by the Israel-Gaza crisis can consider donating to charities working on the ground.
Here’s what to know.

Verify charities to avoid scams

Look for organizations ‘with a clear plan’

Laurie Styron, CEO and executive director of CharityWatch, said her organization looks for charities that already have a presence in the affected region and a history of helping people there.
“If it’s not an organization with a clear plan, your donation could just sit there,” Styron said.
The folks at CharityWatch have put together a list of top-rated charities providing aid during the Israel-Gaza crisis. The list includes Doctors Without Borders, which has had medical programs in Gaza for more than 20 years, Styron said. “So they’re going to be able to mobilize quickly.”

There are a lot of innocent people suffering.

Laurie Styron
CEO of CharityWatch

Another charity on its list is the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee, which is currently providing a wide range of emergency services to victims in Israel.
Meanwhile, Charity Navigator’s list of charities focusing on the Israel-Gaza crisis includes only organizations that are at least three years old, show a three- or four-star rating and have a track record of positive results in their region, among other requirements. Its list includes American Friends of Magen David Adom, known as the Israeli Red Cross, and the Palestine Children’s Relief Fund, which works specifically in Gaza.
“There is a very big need,” said Shlomi Zidky, CEO of Round Up, a fundraising platform that has also gathered a network of verified charities helping victims in Israel.
Aid organizations are “the main lifelines for people,” Zidky said, adding that they are getting people food, medical and psychological support and other vital resources.

Create a plan for giving

Many donors may be unsure where to put their money of late with the barrage of violence and natural disasters, including the Ukraine war and the earthquake in Afghanistan, Styron said.
“The more people impacted, the more overwhelmed people become, and they can get desensitized and not act,” Styron said.

That can be especially true when an issue is politically fraught, like with the Israel-Gaza crisis.
“What people need to remember is that whatever side you align yourself with, there are a lot of innocent people suffering,” she said. “Give what you can afford.”

Donations may reduce taxable income

Eligible donations can be deducted from your adjusted gross income if you itemize deductions on your taxes.
For 2023, the standard deduction is $13,850 for single filers or $27,700 for married couples filing together.
You either claim the standard deduction or your total itemized deductions, including charitable gifts, medical expenses, state and local taxes and more — whichever is more.
Since most filers take the standard deduction, you’re less likely to see a tax benefit from smaller gifts to charity, but it depends on your total combined itemized deductions.
— Additional reporting by CNBC’s Kate Dore.
Correction: Donors are looking to help victims of an earthquake in Afghanistan. An earlier version misstated the natural disaster.
Join CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on Oct. 12, where we’ll talk with top advisors, investors, market experts, technologists and economists about what advisors can do now to position their clients for the best possible outcomes as we head into the last quarter of 2023 and face the unknown in 2024. Learn more and get your ticket today. More

The possibility of an economic downturn has been the talk of 2023.
While the feared downturn has not happened yet, experts are still on guard.
Here’s how you can be ready, too.

Shoppers along the Magnificent Mile shopping district in Chicago on Aug. 15, 2023.
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A recession has been in the forecast for much of 2023.
Yet an economic downturn — formally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth — has yet to happen.

“A recession is obviously going to happen at some point,” said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “But the timing of that is not set in stone.”
Most economists — 61% — put a recession at a less than 50% probability in the next 12 months, according to the latest report from the National Association for Business Economics released this week.
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Yet 39% of respondents put the risk of a formal downturn within that time period at more than 50%, the survey found. Of those who expect a recession, half said they would expect it to begin in the first quarter.
“We are still expecting the economy to slow down considerably and then get into a recession in the first two quarters of next year,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James.

That outlook is based on expectations consumers may pull back on spending while the housing market may face stress, Aleman said. In addition, new conflict in the Middle East may affect both oil prices and the supply chain.
Those factors may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, Aleman said.

The probability of a recession has crept up in the past few months along with negative headlines, Manley said, citing the autoworkers strike, a looming federal government shutdown that was temporarily averted, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve and broader geopolitical issues.
Those worries may prompt consumers to pull back heading into the biggest spending time of the year, Manley said.
“Our confidence is so crushed because of all of these bad headlines, because of this wall of worry,” Manley said.
“There is the chance that we don’t spend as much as we probably would have been planning on before all of these bad headlines,” he said.

A recession is obviously going to happen at some point. But the timing of that is not set in stone.

Jack Manley
global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management

For many consumers, elevated price growth has made it feel like a recession is already here, surveys show.
Whether a recession is coming or not, these are financial advisors’ top tips for how to prepare now.

1. Stress-test your finances

Much of how a recession may affect you comes down to whether you still have a job, Barry Glassman, a certified financial planner and founder and president of Glassman Wealth Services, told CNBC.com earlier this year. Glassman is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
An economic downturn may also create a situation where even those who are still employed earn less, he noted.
As such, it’s a good idea to evaluate how well you could handle an income drop. Consider how long, if you were to lose your job, you could keep up with bills, based on savings and other resources available to you.
“Stress-test your income against your ongoing obligations,” Glassman said. “Make sure you have some sort of safety net.”
Notably, job growth was strong in September, according to the latest government data.

2. Boost emergency savings

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Even having just a little more cash set aside can help ensure an unforeseen event like a car repair or unexpected bill does not sink your budget.
Yet surveys show many Americans would be hard pressed to cover a $400 expense in cash.
Experts say the key is to automate your savings so you do not even see the money in your paycheck.
“Even if we do get through this period relatively unscathed, that’s all the more reason to be saving,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, recently told CNBC.com.
“I have yet to meet anybody who saved too much money,” he added.
Another advantage to saving now: Rising interest rates mean the potential returns on that money are the highest they have been in 15 years.

3. Reduce your debt balances

If you have credit card debt, you’re not alone.
Balances topped $1 trillion for the first time in the second quarter.
While higher interest rates are pushing up how much you fork over for debts, you can control that by paying down your balances, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, previously told CNBC.com.

“For inflation to grow this quickly is something that is really rattling to people,” Schulz said.
But certain moves may help you to control your personal interest rate, he said.
If you have outstanding credit card balances you’re carrying from month to month, try to lower the costs you’re paying on that debt, either through a 0% balance transfer offer or a personal loan.
Alternatively, you may try simply asking your current credit card company for a lower interest rate.

4. Be opportunistic

Fears of an economic downturn or market turbulence can provide an opportunity for investors who are willing to take risks, according to Kamila Elliott, a CFP and co-founder and CEO of Collective Wealth Partners in Atlanta.
If you’re five years away from retirement or even closer, now is the time to sit down with a trustworthy financial planner to make sure you’re on track, Elliott, who is a member of the CNBC Advisor Council, told CNBC.com earlier this year.
For those who are further away from retirement — with that goal 10 to 30 years from now — this may be a time to take more risks because you have time to ride out any market volatility, Elliott said.
The average market return tends to bounce back, which can result in meaningful progress over time.
Elliott said it reminds her of a famous quote from legendary investor Warren Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
“We take that philosophy looking at our investments whenever there’s fear and there’s risk there’s also, oftentimes, opportunity,” Elliott said.
Join CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on Oct. 12, where we’ll talk with top advisors, investors, market experts, technologists and economists about what advisors can do now to position their clients for the best possible outcomes as we head into the last quarter of 2023 and face the unknown in 2024. Learn more and get your ticket today. More