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After more than a year of gloomy forecasts for the U.S. economy, some experts have backed off recession predictions.
Strong labor numbers, falling inflation and other economic data may suggest the economy is heading for a soft landing, experts say.

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“The 2022 buzzword was recession,” said Douglas Boneparth, a certified financial planner based in New York. “And here we are in 2023 with a myriad of economic data suggesting otherwise.”
Boneparth, who is president of Bone Fide Wealth and a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council, said data like the strong labor market and falling inflation isn’t pointing to the economic downturn experts predicted.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported annual inflation fell to 3% in June, and the July unemployment rate was 3.5%, just above the lowest level since 1969, according to the U.S. Labor Department.  
Of course, with recessions notoriously difficult to predict, even for economists, advisors have warned clients about making fear-based investing decisions.

Recession ‘highly unlikely’ in the next 12 months

One definition of a U.S. recession is two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product, or GDP, which happened during the first two quarters of 2022. Subsequent quarters have been positive.
But that 2022 slump hasn’t been called a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the organization that marks the start and end of economic downturns, explained Atlanta-based CFP Ted Jenkin, founder of oXYGen Financial.
Plus, “wages are still growing and retail sales are still growing,” said Jenkin, who is also a member of CNBC’s FA Council. “The odds of a recession in the next 12 months are highly unlikely.”

The odds of a recession in the next 12 months are highly unlikely.

Ted Jenkin
Founder of oXYGen Financial

‘We constantly educate our clients’

Whether the economy is heading for a mild recession or soft landing, experts emphasize the need for ongoing client education.
“Sometimes we have recessions when you least expect it, and then you have booming economies when you least expect it,” said Carolyn McClanahan, a CFP and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida. She is also a member of CNBC’s FA Council.
“We constantly educate our clients and make them prepared for whatever the world’s going to throw their way,” she added. More

Companies that offer student loan assistance on top of remote work may be especially appealing to some people.
Outstanding student debt in the U.S. is estimated to be over $1.7 trillion, and more than 95% of people say they want some form of remote work.

Google headquarters is seen in Mountain View, California, United States on May 15, 2023.
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How student loan aid works as an employee benefit

Student loan assistance programs come in a number of forms, and the benefit’s value can vary widely. So it’s worth digging into the terms before you make it a deciding factor in your job hunt, experts say. Total outstanding student loan debt is estimated to be over $1.7 trillion.
More than three-quarters of people who have student loans or expect to take them out say they’d be more likely to accept a job with a lower salary if they received a student loan assistance benefit, a Fidelity survey recently found. The firm polled recent college graduates and current high school students.

“With very low unemployment rates, employers will be more willing to offer student loan assistance to attract and retain qualified employees,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. Although, he noted, a higher salary does allow workers to pay off their debt at a faster pace on their own.

An employer offer for loan assistance may be especially attractive given the Supreme Court’s recent ruling striking down President Joe Biden’s plan to cancel up to $20,000 in federal student debt. Biden said he’s pursuing a different path to try to cancel people’s debts, but the process could be lengthy and will likely be met with the same legal challenges as his first attempt.
Student loan bills are set to resume in October after being on pause for over three years.
SHRM, a group representing human resources professionals, called on Congress and state legislatures in June to establish bigger tax breaks for workplace education benefits.
Meanwhile, more than 95% of people say they want some form of remote work, according to a FlexJobs survey in May. More

Total credit card debt reached $1.03 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Credit card balances have now notched seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth.
“The resumption of student loan payments will be a huge test for many cardholders,” says one expert.

Collectively, Americans now owe more than $1 trillion on credit cards.
Total credit card debt rose nearly 5%, or about $45 billion, in the second quarter to a new high of $1.03 trillion, according to a new report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Although delinquency rates are still low by historical standards, rising balances may present challenges for some borrowers going forward, particularly when student loan payments resume this fall, according to the New York Fed.
“The resumption of student loan payments will be a huge test for many cardholders, shrinking the amount they have to devote to paying off card debt and leaving some people simply unable to make minimum payments at all,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst.

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“One trillion dollars in credit card debt is staggering,” Schulz added. “Unfortunately, it is likely only going to keep growing from here.”

Card balances, interest rates have increased

After a sharp slowdown in 2020, credit card balances have grown year over year for the past seven quarters, largely due to strong consumer spending in the face of higher prices, the New York Fed researchers found.
“Credit card balances saw brisk growth in the second quarter,” Joelle Scally, regional economic principal in the New York Fed’s research and statistics group, said in a statement. “And while delinquency rates have edged up, they appear to have normalized to pre-pandemic levels.”

Not only are balances higher, but more cardholders are also carrying debt from month to month, according to a separate Bankrate report, adding to the financial strain.

Other options for student loan relief More

Waiting to claim Social Security up until age 70 will give you the biggest retirement benefit possible.
Yet, a new survey finds just 10% of people plan to wait that long to start their monthly checks.
By waiting up to age 70, retirees can lock in the biggest benefit checks available based on their work records.

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Research suggests it’s best to hold off on claiming Social Security retirement benefits until age 70, if possible, to get the biggest monthly payments available to you.
However, just 10% of nonretired Americans plan to wait until that age to start their monthly benefit checks, a new survey from asset management company Schroders finds. That includes 17% of respondents ages 60 to 65, who may be on the brink of retirement, according to the results.

Meanwhile, 40% of respondents said they plan to take their Social Security retirement benefits between ages 62 and 65, according to the survey of 2,000 investors ages 27 to 79 taken between February and March.
Yet, most investors — 72% of all nonretired investors and 95% of nonretired investors ages 60 to 65 — said they know waiting longer could result in bigger monthly checks.

The top reason for claiming early, cited by 44% of respondents, is the concern that Social Security may run out of money and stop making payments, pointing to a “crisis of confidence” in the system, according to Deb Boyden, head of U.S. defined contribution at Schroders.
Other reasons included needing the money, with 36%; wanting to access the money as soon as possible, 34%; and acting on advice to claim earlier than 70, with 13%.

Why it pays to wait to claim Social Security benefits

Early claiming will affect the size of your monthly Social Security checks.

Those who turn 62 this year will have their benefit reduced about 30% for claiming now compared with waiting until their full retirement age of 67, according to the Social Security Administration.
At full retirement age, workers stand to receive 100% of the benefits they earned.
For each year delayed past full retirement age to age 70, 8% is added to Social Security benefits.
By waiting up to age 70, retirees can lock in the biggest benefit checks available based on their work records.
Retirement benefits taken at age 70 are 76% higher, adjusted for inflation, than retirement benefits taken at 62, according to research from Boston University economics professor Larry Kotlikoff, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta executive vice president David Altig and Opendoor Technologies research scientist Victor Yifan Ye.
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Like Schroders, the researchers found only about 10% of workers actually wait until age 70 to claim Social Security benefits, though more than 90% would benefit from waiting until that age.
“The return on being patient is huge with Social Security,” Kotlikoff said.
While high earners may leave the most money on the table by claiming early, people with limited assets also face high stakes because of how dependent they are on the money, he said.
In some cases, it may make sense to claim early, such as if a health condition may shorten your life span. Yet, even for some people with those circumstances, delaying benefits may still make sense to trigger higher benefits for a spouse, according to Kotlikoff.

Nearly $5K per month for a comfortable retirement

When it comes to retirement, there is one big question savers face: How much money is enough?
Americans expect to need $1.27 million to retire comfortably, according to recent research from Northwestern Mutual. When it comes to monthly income needed to enjoy a comfortable retirement, nonretirees said they need $4,940, on average, according to Schroders.
Those who are already in retirement are coming up short of that goal, the survey found, with monthly income of $4,170, on average, including Social Security. Notably, 37% of those respondents said their monthly income is less than $2,500.
Aside from Social Security, nonretired Americans expect to generate income from a mix of assets. More than half plan to draw from cash, with 58%, followed by workplace retirement plans, 53%; investments outside employer-provided retirement plans, 40%; defined benefit or pension plans, 20%; rental income, 14%; annuities, 10%; cash value life insurance, 10%; or a reverse mortgage, 4%.
However, the challenge will be coming up with a steady stream of income that mimics a regular paycheck, Boyden noted. About half of respondents, 49%, said they do not have a retirement income strategy and just take money when they need it.
Yet, more than half — 57% — said the idea of not having regular paychecks in retirement is concerning, while 23% said it is terrifying.
“The retirement industry has collaborated to solve for accumulation; now we need to turn to solving for those spend down years,” Boyden said. More

A sign is posted in front of PayPal headquarters on February 02, 2023 in San Jose, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

PayPal on Monday launched a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin to help facilitate payments as its latest addition to its suite of crypto services. It’s the first such move from a major U.S. financial institution.
The new asset, called PayPal USD (PYUSD), was designed to address the “emerging potential” to “transform payments in Web3 and digitally native environments.” Its launch comes as market participants await a vote in Congress on a key stablecoin bill, which has just advanced to the House with three other crypto bills for the first time.

PayPal said the stablecoin’s function is to reduce friction for in-experience payments in virtual settings and allow direct flows to developers. It’s redeemable for dollars and backed by dollar deposits, short-term U.S. Treasurys and similar cash equivalents.
“The shift toward digital currencies requires a stable instrument that is both digitally native and easily connected to fiat currency like the U.S. dollar,” said Dan Schulman, president and CEO of PayPal. “Our commitment to responsible innovation and compliance, and our track record delivering new experiences to our customers, provides the foundation necessary to contribute to the growth of digital payments through PayPal USD.” 
Shares of PayPal were higher by more than 2% following the news.
The PayPal stablecoin is issued by Paxos, a veteran of the stablecoin space and PayPal’s brokerage partner for its crypto buying and selling services. Paxos also previously issued the dollar-pegged, Binance-branded stablecoin BUSD. It was ordered by the New York State Department of Financial Services in February to stop issuing BUSD, which marked the beginning of this year’s decline in the stablecoin market cap.

The market cap for USD Coin (USDC), the biggest dollar-backed stablecoin issued by a U.S. company, has dropped about 41% since Jan. 1, according to CryptoQuant. USDC is managed by a consortium called Centre, which was founded by Circle and includes crypto exchange Coinbase.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies whose prices are pegged to an underlying asset. Although they’re designed to be less volatile than most virtual currencies, they weren’t immune from this year’s regulatory crackdown on crypto, and earlier in the year, the banking crisis.
They’re often used to trade in and out of other crypto assets like bitcoin and ether. Because they don’t enter the traditional financial system, traders can enter and exit positions faster and more cheaply than if they were dealing with fiat currencies like the dollar. More

Life Changes

The Mega Millions jackpot has ballooned to $1.55 billion without a winning ticket from Friday night’s drawing.
There are two payout choices: a one-time lump sum “cash option” or 30 annuitized payments with a 5% yearly increase.
The next Mega Millions drawing is Tuesday at 11 p.m. ET.

The Mega Millions jackpot hit a record $1.55 billion on Aug. 7, 2023.
VIEW press | Getty

The Mega Millions jackpot has ballooned to an estimated $1.55 billion after months without a winner. One of the many choices the winner will make is whether to take the one-time lump sum or 30 annuitized payments.
The current jackpot may become the game’s biggest prize since the $1.537 billion windfall won in October 2018, according to Mega Millions. The final confirmation will come closer to the next drawing Tuesday at 11 p.m. ET.

Mega Millions has awarded prizes in excess of $1 billion four other times, once each in 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The odds of scoring the winning ticket are roughly 1 in 302 million.

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The winner can choose between the one-time lump sum worth $757.2 million or 30 annuitized payments valued at $1.55 billion. Both options are pretax estimates.
Annuity recipients can expect an initial payout, followed by 29 years of annual payments, which increase 5% every year, according to Mega Millions.
If you pass away before collecting all 30 payments, Mega Millions will make the remaining payments on schedule to your designated beneficiary or your estate.

Picking the lump sum payout is a ‘big mistake’

Andrew Stoltmann, a Chicago-based lawyer who has represented several lottery winners, says 95% choose the lump sum option, which he describes as a “big mistake.”

“Let’s just say the curse of the lottery is real,” he said.
There are three “big drains” on lottery winners: bad investments, relatives who ask for money and overspending, according to Stoltmann.
If you opt for the annuity, “you can make those first-, second- or even third-year mistakes, and still have the majority of the corpus coming to you,” he said.

You can make those first-, second- or even third-year mistakes, and still have the majority of the corpus coming to you.

Andrew Stoltmann
Attorney at Stoltmann Law

Without financial experts to help you manage the windfall, you can “protect yourself” by choosing the annuity payout option, said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.
However, professionals can likely outperform the annuity payments by managing the upfront lump sum, he said.
Tuesday’s Mega Millions drawing comes about three weeks after a single ticket sold in California won Powerball’s $1.08 billion jackpot. That game’s top prize is back down to $145 million, with a roughly 1 in 292 million odds of winning the jackpot. More

Life Changes

With most college bills due this month, some parents and students may be considering taking out private student loans.
The option can be risky and expensive, consumer advocates say.

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Max out federal aid first

People should consider taking out a private loan only when they have reached the federal student loan limits and still need additional education financing, Kantrowitz said. (The most an undergraduate can borrow in government loans in an academic year is typically $12,500.)
But, Kantrowitz said, “borrowing private loans may be a sign of overborrowing, so they should do so with caution.”
One rule of thumb is that students shouldn’t borrow more in college than they expect to earn as their starting salary. You can look up annual average incomes for different occupations at the U.S. Department of Labor’s website.
Scott Buchanan, executive director of the Student Loan Servicing Alliance, a trade group for federal and private lenders, said private student loans can fill the gap for those who’ve exhausted federal aid and scholarships.
“But you need to do your research like with any other loan, and make sure to never borrow more than you absolutely need,” Buchanan said.

Scrutinize repayment terms and protections

Federal student loans offer a variety of protections, including forgiveness programs and interest-pausing forbearances, that most private lenders do not provide, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit. 
“We almost always advise against private loans,” Mayotte said in an earlier interview.
She also described severe terms private lenders may enforce.
“If you cannot make the payments, the lender can sue to get access to wage garnishment, asset seizure such as bank accounts, and that’s for both the borrower and the cosigner,” Mayotte said.

As Mayotte pointed out, many private lenders require students to get a cosigner who is equally liable for the debt. If payment challenges arise, both people are on the hook.
“I hear from borrowers and cosigners weekly who cannot afford the payments, and there’s just not any options I can give them,” she said.

Pay attention to interest rates

Private student loans can come with fixed or variable interest rates. Your rate can depend on you or your cosigner’s credit score, income and financial history.
“Generally, borrowers should prefer a fixed rate in a rising-rate environment, even though the variable rates may start off lower,” Kantrowitz said. “Variable interest rates have nowhere to go but up.”
Either way, the rates on private loans can be pricey.
“I’ve heard of interest rates as high as 18% on private student loans,” Kantrowitz said.
Official estimates on the average interest rates on private student loans range from 4% to 15%, according to the Education Data Initiative. For comparison, federal student loans for undergraduates currently come with a 5.5% interest rate. More

Americans are steadily falling deeper into credit card debt.
Of those carrying card balances, 60% have now been in debt for a year or more, according to a recent report.
There are some tried-and-true payoff strategies that can help, experts say.
Here are the best ways to jump-start debt repayment.

Credit cards are one of the most expensive ways to borrow money from month to month, and yet many Americans continue to take on ever-increasing amounts of this debt.
On the heels of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the average credit card rate is now more than 20% on average, an all-time high, making it even harder to dig out of debt.

While balances are higher, more cardholders are also carrying debt from month to month, according to a new Bankrate report.
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Now, 47% of borrowers carry over card balances each month, the report found. And of those who are carrying a balance, 60%, or roughly 54 million people, have been in debt for at least a year.
“The situation is noticeably worse than it was a few years ago,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. “More people are carrying more debt and at very high interest rates.”

How to tackle high-interest credit card debt

1. Snag a 0% balance transfer credit card
“My top tip is to sign up for a 0% balance transfer card,” Rossman said. “These allow you to avoid interest for up to 21 months, and that’s a tremendous tailwind that can power your debt payoff journey.”

Cards offering 12, 15 or even 21 months with no interest on transferred balances are one of the best weapons Americans have in the battle against credit card debt, added Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst.
To make the most of a balance transfer, aggressively pay down the balance during the introductory period. Otherwise, the remaining balance will have a new annual percentage rate applied to it, which is about 24%, on average, in line with the rates for new credit, according to Schulz.
Further, there can be limits on how much you can transfer and fees attached. Most cards have a one-time balance transfer fee, which is usually around 3% of the tab, but there can be an annual fee for the card, as well.
2. Pick a repayment strategy
There are two ways you could approach repayment: prioritize the highest-interest debt or pay off your debt from smallest to largest balance. Those strategies are known as the avalanche or snowball method, respectively. Using either can help consumers pay off debt as much as 100 months sooner, according to a separate analysis by LendingTree.
The avalanche method lists your debts from highest to lowest by interest rate. That way, you pay off the debts that rack up the most in interest first. The snowball method prioritizes your smallest debts first, regardless of interest rate, to help gain momentum as the debts are paid off.
With either strategy, you’ll make the minimum payments each month on all your debts and put any extra cash toward accelerating repayment on one debt of your choice.
“People may tell you there’s an absolute right answer as to which method is best,” Schulz said. “They’re wrong. There’s not. It’s heavily dependent on each individual’s financial circumstances and even their own personal styles. And, ultimately, if you start with one method and don’t like it, nothing says you can’t switch strategies.”
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