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The IRS is preparing to test a free online direct filing system for some taxpayers in 2024.
While pre-populated returns aren’t part of the initial plan, research shows it may be possible for certain filers.

JGI | Blend Images | Getty Images

The IRS is preparing to test a free online direct filing system for some taxpayers — and while pre-populated returns with certain details already filled in aren’t part of the initial plan, research shows it may be possible for certain filers.
As directed by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the pilot program will launch during the 2024 filing season for some taxpayers to assess the platform’s broader viability.

“We do not expect pre-population or pre-determining tax obligations to be part of it,” IRS commissioner Daniel Werfel told reporters on a press call Tuesday, noting the project’s limited scope.
More from Personal Finance:IRS to offer free direct filing for some taxpayers in 2024Black Americans more likely to face audits, IRS confirmsSen. Sanders pushes for Medicare for All
However, the IRS may have the future ability to pre-populate nearly half of tax returns, according to a 2022 working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
It’s possible the agency could correctly auto-fill an estimated 62 million to 73 million returns with information it already has, which would cover 41% to 48% of taxpayers, researchers from the Treasury Department, the Minneapolis Federal Reserve and Dartmouth College found.
The paper was based on a random sample of roughly 350,000 individual tax returns from 2019, and accuracy was highest among low- to moderate-income filers. Errors were more likely to occur as itemized deductions increased.

Pre-populated tax returns are common abroad

Bruce Sacerdote, professor of economics at Dartmouth College and co-author of the NBER paper, said he was “impressed” to learn the degree to which other countries are successfully using pre-populated individual tax returns.
As of 2021, more than 45 countries, including Germany, Japan and the U.K., at least partially pre-populate personal income tax returns.
Some countries use “tax agency reconciliation” where residents can elect to have tax authorities auto-complete the data and before filers approve the return. Others may use an “exact withholding system” where employers try to set aside precisely what workers owe.

Possible ‘pitfalls’ of pre-populated tax returns

If the IRS wanted to use pre-populated tax returns, Sacerdote said there would be a few “pitfalls” to address, such as third-party tax forms, known as information returns, which the IRS receives for taxpayers yearly.
“If we were going to still get returns done by April 15, you might need employers and reporters to send information returns sooner,” Sacerdote said.

You certainly worry about nudging people away from their true liability.

Bruce Sacerdote
Professor of economics at Dartmouth College

Another possible issue is correctly inputting a taxpayer’s filing status, which can impact tax liability or a refund. However, that could possibly be reviewed and corrected by taxpayers before filing, he said.
And pre-populated returns could raise questions about taxpayer compliance. Sacerdote added: “You certainly worry about nudging people away from their true liability.”
Of course, it’s still too early to know whether the testing of the IRS’ free online direct filing will be successful.
Ayushi Roy, deputy director at New America, who led the independent third-party task force responsible for reviewing the IRS feasibility report, said there are also organizational and operational challenges to consider for any new project.
“Any technology that you build is only as good as the organizational design, bureaucracy and communication of that organization,” she said. More

A screen displays the trading information for Morgan Stanley on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), January 19, 2022.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

The financial sector witnessed a rapid transformation over the past decade, with technology reshaping the processes of lending, wealth management and payments.
The transformation also brought opportunities to invest. TipRanks recognizes Wall Street’s 10 best financial sector analysts for capturing the best investment opportunities. These analysts outperformed in their stock picking and earned significant returns from their recommendations.

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TipRanks has used its Experts Center tool to identify the top 10 analysts who have a high success rate. To create this list, TipRanks analyzed every recommendation made by financial sector analysts in the past decade. 
The ranking reflects the analysts’ ability to generate returns from their stock recommendations and price targets. TipRanks’ algorithms calculated the average return, statistical significance of each rating, and the analysts’ overall success rate. Further, each rating was measured over one year.

Top 10 analysts from the financial sector

The image shows the most successful Wall Street analysts from the financial sector, in descending order.

Arrows pointing outwards

1. Moshe Orenbuch – Credit Suisse

Moshe Orenbuch tops the list. Orenbuch has an overall success rate of 65%. His best rating has been on the financial services company Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY). His buy call on ALLY stock from April 17, 2020, to April 17, 2021, generated a return of 220%.

2. Mark Rothschild – Canaccord Genuity

Mark Rothschild is second on this list and has a success rate of 72%. Rothschild’s top recommendation has been on a Canadian real estate investment firm, Dream Unlimited (TSE:DRM). The analyst generated a profit of 108% through his buy recommendation on Dream Unlimited from Feb. 24, 2021, to Feb. 24, 2022.

3. Bill Carcache – Wolfe Research

Wolfe Research analyst Bill Carcache ranks No. 3 on TipRanks’ top 10 financial analysts list. Carcache has a success rate of 71%. His best recommendation has been on Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS), a digital banking and payment services provider and credit card issuer. The analyst generated a return of 287% through a buy recommendation on DFS from March 20, 2020, to March 20, 2021.

4. Steve Manaker – Stifel Nicolaus

Steve Manaker bags the fourth spot on this list. The five-star analyst has a 71% overall success rate. Manaker’s best recommendation has been on Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE:IIPR), a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on the regulated cannabis industry. His buy call on IIPR stock generated a 250% return from June 26, 2018, to June 26, 2019.

5. Bose George – KBW

Fifth-place analyst Bose George has a success rate of 71%. His best recommendation has been Mr. Cooper Group (NASDAQ:COOP), a leading home loan servicer and originator. The analyst delivered a profit of 179% from July 7, 2020, to July 7, 2021.

6. Gerard Cassidy – RBC Capital

Taking the sixth position is Gerard Cassidy. The analyst has a success rate of 58%. His top recommendation was Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), a Cincinnati-based regional bank. Through his buy call on FITB stock, Cassidy generated a return of 139% from April 8, 2020, to April 8, 2021.

7. Susan Roth Katzke – Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Susan Roth Katzke is seventh on this list, with a success rate of 67%. Katzke’s best call has been a buy on the shares of the investment bank Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS). The recommendation generated a return of 138% from May 6, 2020, to May 6, 2021.

8. Mark Dwelle – RBC Capital

In the eighth position is Mark Dwelle of RBC. Dwelle has an overall success rate of 64%. His top recommendation is insurance company Goosehead Insurance (NASDAQ:GSHD). Based on his buy call on GSHD, he generated a profit of 210% from March 13, 2020, to March 13, 2021.

9. Ken Usdin – Jefferies

Ken Usdin ranks ninth on the list. The five-star analyst sports a 62% success rate. His top recommendation has been on Pennsylvania regional bank Customers Bancorp (NYSE:CUBI). The buy recommendation generated a return of 246% from Jan. 7, 2021, to Jan 7, 2022.

10. Robert Dodd – Raymond James

Robert Dodd has the 10th spot on the list, with a success rate of 69%. Dodd’s best call has been a buy on the shares of WhiteHorse Finance (NASDAQ:WHF), a business development company that offers loans to privately-held lower-middle-market corporations. The recommendation generated a return of 150% from April 13, 2020, to April 13, 2021.

Bottom Line

Retail investors could follow the ratings of these top financial analysts to make informed investment decisions. These analysts generated significant returns from their recommendations in the past decade. 
You can also look at all the analysts who feature in the top 100 list. We will soon return with the top 10 analysts of the past 10 years from the healthcare sector. More

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Bankrate has found 53% of Gen Z and 43% of millennial investors said they expect to put more money into stocks in 2023.
But a new survey from the site shows almost half of Gen Z and one-third of millennial investors sold stocks or didn’t buy more this year due to “elevated inflation.” 
Financial advisor Jordan Awoye says many young investors are tapping stock-heavy retirement and other investment accounts to cover everyday expenses.

Most young investors claim they are going to invest more money in the stock market this year compared to 2022 but, in fact, many of them have been doing exactly the opposite.
That’s according to Bankrate, which released a new survey Wednesday that found 53% of Gen Z and 43% of millennial investors said they expect to put more money into stocks in 2023, much more so than Gen X (19%) and baby boomers (9%).

Yet Bankrate chief financial analyst Greg McBride said the two younger cohorts have done exactly the opposite so far this year.
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“What we see among younger investors is a much higher propensity to have been taking action so far here in 2023 in the face of things like elevated inflation or the higher returns that are available on safe-haven cash investments,” McBride said. “And there was an increased likelihood of selling or withholding investment rather than buying in response to that.”
Almost half of Gen Z and one-third of millennial investors sold stocks or didn’t buy more this year due to elevated inflation, Bankrate found. And more than a third of Gen Z and one-third of millennial investors either sold stocks or didn’t buy more — due to higher returns on safe-haven investments like savings accounts, money market funds, CDs and government bonds.
Financial advisor Jordan Awoye of Awoye Capital in Bay Shore, New York, said many young investors are tapping stock-heavy retirement and other investment accounts to cover everyday expenses.

“For a lot of them, that stock market account is not necessarily that set-it-and-forget-it, like their predecessors have been taught,” he said. “A lot of them are using it pretty actively and treating it as like a savings account-plus.”
Awoye said younger investors are more likely than older investors to use retirement funds or money in a brokerage account to pay off credit card debt, buy real estate or invest in their own business.
Recent data from Voya Financial found 2 out of 5 American workers said their retirement savings plan is their only form of emergency savings. And that was truer for younger investors ages 18-34. Nearly half (48%) in that age group said retirement savings is the only significant form of emergency savings they have.

Having less in emergency savings will cost you

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According to Voya’s own retirement data, employees without adequate emergency savings are 13 times more likely to take a hardship withdrawal from their 401(k) plan. Depending on the reason for the withdrawal, workers may have to pay a 10% penalty plus taxes when they make an early withdrawal from a traditional 401(k) or workplace retirement plan.
Awoye said many young investors are opting to take out 401(k) loans to fund other investments, like buying real estate, starting a side gig or building their own business. Yet some may believe they’re simply borrowing money that they’ll pay back to themselves without considering the impact of selling stocks at a loss and facing penalties and taxes.
Missed payments and interest on a 401(k) loan are considered a taxable distribution and the IRS will make you pay an additional 10% tax on that money if you take the money out before you’re age 59½. In the case of a job loss, the loan often must be immediately repaid in full.
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High health-care costs can lead to financial strain for many individuals and families.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is pushing to change that with Medicare for All.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks at a press conference outside the U.S. Capitol Building on May 4 in Washington, D.C.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty Images

For many Americans, a medical emergency can lead to a financial crisis due to the high cost of health care in the U.S.
This week, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is renewing his push for a new approach — Medicare for All — that he touted as a presidential candidate.

“The current health-care system in the United States is totally broken,” Sanders said Tuesday at a Capitol Hill event.
“It is totally dysfunctional, and it is extremely cruel,” he said.
With the support of Democratic Reps. Pramila Jayapal of Washington and Debbie Dingell of Michigan, the lawmakers plan to reintroduce a bill, titled Medicare for All Act of 2023, in both the House and the Senate on Wednesday.
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In the House, the proposal will have 112 co-sponsors, more than they have ever had at the introduction of the bill, Jayapal noted, despite having fewer Democratic seats than in the previous Congress.

Medicare for All would create a single-payer program, which would allow one source to collect all health-care fees and pay all health-care costs.
“It is long overdue for us to end the international embarrassment of the United States being the only major country on earth that does not guarantee health care to all of its people,” Sanders said. “Now is the time for a Medicare for All single-payer program.”

Some patients currently can’t afford care

Research shows many Americans suffer under the burden of high health-care costs.
Almost 1 in 10 adults, or approximately 23 million people, owe medical debt, research from KFF found last year. About 11 million people owe more than $2,000 and 3 million people owe more than $10,000, the independent health policy research provider found.
Some families have filed for bankruptcy, Sanders noted, after serious conditions like cancer or heart disease have left them with unmanageable hospital bills.
The inequities tend to affect low-income and minority and immigrant communities, said Nancy Hagans — who has served as a critical care nurse for over 35 years in Brooklyn, New York — during Tuesday’s Capitol Hill event.

During her career, Hagans said she had seen patients not get the care they need because they didn’t have health insurance, or if they did, because they couldn’t afford the high deductibles or co-pays. Others were forced to choose between taking their medications or putting food on the table for their children, she said.
“Our current system discriminates on your ability to pay, what kind of job you have or if you have a job at all,” said Hagans, who currently serves on the Council of Presidents of National Nurses United and as president of the New York State Nurses Association.

‘Why don’t we have Medicare for All?’

The new bill follows previous Medicare for All proposals. Sanders has called for comprehensive health care with no networks, premiums, deductibles, co-pays or surprise bills.
The proposal includes primary care, vision, dental, prescription drugs, mental health, substance abuse, long-term care services and reproductive health care. It also includes universal long-term care coverage and the ability to negotiate prescription drug prices.
One key obstacle to implementing Medicare for All would be cost, according to Chuck Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Blahous previously estimated the plan would cost somewhere between $32.6 trillion to $38.8 trillion over 10 years.
Today, the estimate may be slightly lower at around $30 trillion, Blahous said. But that would be about $3 trillion higher to meet the costs of all the increased demand for such a program, he said.
However, the government has to address its “enormous problem” with federal deficits and indebtedness, he said.
“The federal government hasn’t shown the willingness to finance its current level of spending, let alone one that may be increased by this amount,” Blahous said.

A protestor at the 2022 March for Medicare for All in Washington, D.C.
Probal Rashid | Lightrocket | Getty Images

After dealing with the hassles of going through private insurance, many people tend to ask, “Why don’t we have Medicare for all?” noted John Holahan, institute fellow at the Health Policy Center at the Urban Institute.
But the answer is not that simple, he said.
“They really want a system that’s ‘everybody’s in it and everything is free and providers are paid the Medicare rates,'” Holahan said. “The current Medicare looks a lot different than what they are talking about.”
Making the economics work may also be difficult, according to Holahan.

Medicare rates are lower than what private insurers pay. If those rates are used across the board, it would result in savings for patients and employers. But it would also prompt substantial drops in income for physicians and providers and less revenue for hospitals.
And the tax increases that may be required to implement such a health-care system may make it a nonstarter politically, Holahan said.
Another alternative could be to create a public option that would allow workers to choose between government and private plans, he said. Implementing rate controls for hospitals or prescription drugs would also be “major advances,” according to Holahan. More

The IRS is testing a system that would allow taxpayers to file federal tax returns for free online directly with the agency, with a pilot program launching for the 2024 filing season.
Nearly three-quarters of taxpayers expressed interest in a free IRS-provided direct filing system, according to a survey from the agency.

Jayme Thornton | Tooga Productions | Getty Images

The IRS is testing a system that would allow taxpayers to file federal tax returns for free online directly with the agency, with a pilot program launching for some filers next year.
Known as Direct File, the pilot program will begin during the 2024 filing season, following recent testing and a feasibility report, as authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022.

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Direct File would cost an estimated $64 million to $249 million per year, depending on the number of filers and complexity of returns, according to the report.
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“The report shows that a majority of taxpayers are interested in using an IRS-provided tool to prepare and file their taxes,” IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel told reporters on a call Tuesday.
Nearly three-quarters of taxpayers expressed interest in a free IRS-provided filing system, with high popularity among younger filers, those with limited English proficiency and do-it-yourself taxpayers, according to a 2022 survey cited in the report.

Pushback from the tax prep industry

While some Democrats and consumer advocates have pushed for a direct filing system for years, there has already been pushback from Republicans and the tax preparation industry.

“The IRS direct e-file pilot set to start in January 2024 continues to be a solution in search of a problem,” a spokesperson for H&R Block said in a statement. “With more than 30 organizations already offering free tax preparation, this pilot is unnecessary and faces significant barriers to providing comprehensive tax preparation services.”
Free File Alliance Executive Director Tim Hugo has also criticized the IRS plan. “Free File has been provided at zero cost to the federal government for over twenty years; thus, it is baffling that Treasury and the IRS want to pay tens — and even hundreds — of millions of dollars annually to create an inferior filing option for the American taxpayer,” he said.

It is a watershed moment for the tax system.

Mark Everson
vice chairman at Alliantgroup

And while similar systems have been implemented in other countries, there are lingering concerns about cybersecurity and taxpayer compliance.
“It is a watershed moment for the tax system,” said Mark Everson, a former IRS commissioner and current vice chairman at Alliantgroup. “And I think that the government has to proceed with great caution.”

Taxpayers will ‘always have choices’

Currently, taxpayers with $73,000 adjusted gross income or less for 2022 can use Free File, a public-private partnership between the IRS and Free File Alliance, to file federal returns for free. But the program hasn’t been widely used. Roughly 70% of taxpayers qualify for Free File, but only 2% used it during the 2022 filing season, according to the National Taxpayer Advocate.
Despite the low participation rate, Werfel said the IRS remains “strongly committed” to a variety of filing options for low-income filers, including Free File, which has extended its IRS partnership through 2025. 
“Taxpayers will always have choices for how they file their taxes,” Werfel said on the Tuesday call. “They can use tax software. They can use a trusted tax professional. They can use a paper tax return. We’d rather they file electronically, sure, but they have that choice.” More

The federal debt ceiling stalemate underscores the need for urgent spending reform.
U.S. households are in the same boat after running up record credit card balances.

How to know if you face your own debt default

After contending with high inflation for over a year, households are nearing a “breaking point,” according to a study by WalletHub.
Using the Great Recession as a guide, the projected breaking point is the level of household credit card debt that will become unsustainable for most people, said Jill Gonzalez, an analyst at WalletHub. Currently, the average household’s credit card balance is $9,990, just $2,015 shy of where that tab hits its limit, the report found.

“It’s when people won’t be able to keep up with their bills,” she said. “We’re inching closer and closer to that breaking point.”

High inflation is certainly contributing to Americans’ high credit card balances, along with record-high interest rates, according to Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. “We’re seeing more people carrying credit card debt, too, often to finance day-to-day essentials.”
More than one-third also now have more credit card debt than emergency savings, which is the highest on record.

‘It’s never too late to turn things around’

As government negotiations over potential federal spending cuts continue, households must also consider where they can cut costs and boost savings.
“It’s never too late to turn things around,” Rossman said.
Most experts recommend starting with a budget — some online tools or the basic envelope method, known as “cash stuffing,” can help — and aiming to set more money aside in an emergency fund, which can shield you from accumulating more debt while you’re working to pay off your existing balance.

Competitive rates at an online bank will protect your cash cushion, Jenkin added.
After years of rock-bottom returns, some top-yielding online savings accounts and one-year certificates of deposit rates are now as high as 5%, much higher than the average rate from a traditional, brick-and-mortar bank, according to Bankrate.
“I call it ‘click and mortar,'” Jenkin said. “The easiest thing to do is simply call the bank and demand a higher interest rate or look at moving money out of your checking account into a savings account.”
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Keeping up with rising inflation has been difficult for Social Security beneficiaries, research finds.
Despite annual cost-of-living adjustments, the cost of goods and services has climbed more.
Prices of eggs and other goods have taken a larger share of older Americans’ budgets.

Lordhenrivoton | E+ | Getty Images

Higher prices have made it difficult for Social Security beneficiaries to keep up, even with a record boost to benefits for 2023.
An 8.7% cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, put about $140 per month more in Social Security beneficiaries’ checks starting in January, according to estimates from the Social Security Administration.

Yet rising costs means beneficiaries have lost 36% of their buying power since 2000, according to new research from The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group.
To be able to live as well on Social Security benefits as in 2000, today’s retirees would need an extra $516.70 per month, the nonpartisan senior group found.

High inflation ‘extremely difficult’ for retirees

Social Security COLAs have increased by 78% since 2000, according to The Senior Citizens League. At the same time, the cost of goods and services retirees typically buy has gone up by 141.4% over that time.
COLAs have averaged 3.4% annually since 2000, while goods and services have averaged about 6.2%.
This year’s loss in buying power — measured from January 2000 through February 2023 — improved from a 40% decline based on last year’s study. Yet the current 36% loss in buying power is still one of the deepest losses recorded, according to the group.

Eggs topped the list of fastest-growing costs for seniors since 2000. Other categories in the top five include prescription drugs, heating oil, dental services and Medicare Part B premiums.

Eggs were also the fastest-growing cost for seniors over the past year, based on data through February, the research found. Recently, wholesale egg prices have dropped from record highs over the winter.
Other categories in the top five for the year included apples, white bread, coffee and dental visits.
“The average retiree has found living with these high rates of inflation extremely difficult,” David Tinsley, senior economist at Bank of America Institute, recently told CNBC.com.
One caveat to a record high COLA this year is that the extra money could be prompting higher levels of spending among older Americans, according to research from Bank of America Institute.
While higher spending may complicate the fight against higher inflation, it is delayed relief for older Americans, whose COLA was lower than price growth in 2022.

The COLA for 2024 may be lower

The Social Security COLA may be around 3.1%, according to a new estimate from The Senior Citizens League, well below the 8.7% increase to benefits beneficiaries saw in 2023, the highest increase in four decades.
The 3.1% estimate for the COLA is preliminary and subject to change, said Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at The Senior Citizens League.
The latest consumer price index data shows inflation rose 4.9% over the past year as of April and 0.4% for the month — fueling hopes that inflation will continue to decline this year.
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The subset of the data used to calculate the annual Social Security COLA — called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W — rose 4.6% over the past 12 months and 0.6% for the month.
The Social Security Administration determines the annual COLA by comparing third-quarter CPI-W data for the current year to the third quarter of the previous year. A cost-of-living adjustment is put in place if there has been an increase over the previous year. If there is no increase, the COLA may be zero. More

The IRS on Monday confirmed that Black taxpayers are significantly more likely to face an IRS audit.
IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel said the agency has dedicated “significant resources” to address the disparity.
“I will stay laser-focused on this to ensure that we identify and implement changes prior to next tax-filing season,” Werfel said.

IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel speaks at a Senate Finance Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on April 19, 2023.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The IRS on Monday said that Black taxpayers are significantly more likely to face an IRS audit, confirming recent findings. IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel said the agency is weighing changes to address the disparity.
A study released in January by economists at Stanford University, the University of Michigan, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the University of Chicago found the IRS audits Black taxpayers about three to five times more than other Americans. Researchers based their assessment on microdata from roughly 148 million tax returns and 780,000 audits.

Those findings prompted questions from lawmakers during Werfel’s nomination process.
“While there is a need for further research, our initial findings support the conclusion that Black taxpayers may be audited at higher rates than would be expected given their share of the population,” Werfel wrote in a May 15 letter to the Senate Finance Committee.
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Werfel said the IRS has dedicated “significant resources” to address the disparity, including a closer look at the agency’s automated processes and data used for exam selection.
Specifically, he vowed to examine algorithms for audits of filers claiming the earned income tax credit, or EITC, a tax break to low- to moderate-income workers. The EITC is more closely scrutinized because it’s refundable, meaning it still provides a refund even when the credit value exceeds taxes owed. Werfel stressed the IRS does not and will not consider race as part of the audit selection process, but the original research suggests the EITC has contributed to the disparity.

Werfel added: “I will stay laser-focused on this to ensure that we identify and implement changes prior to next tax filing season.”

Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said the findings are a “shameful consequence” of racial discrimination that often shows up in government and private organization algorithms. “This bias is completely unacceptable regardless of where it occurs, and we have an obligation to stamp it out,” he said in a statement on Monday.
Wyden said the previous decade of IRS budget cuts made it “virtually impossible to enforce our tax laws fairly,” resulting in an “overreliance on these flawed algorithms.”
Last August, Congress authorized nearly $80 billion in funding to the IRS, aiming to close the tax gap by initially focusing on the tax returns of wealthy families, large corporations and complex partnerships. More