Investing

More than one-third of Americans are saving their tax refund this season, according to a CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey, conducted in partnership with Momentive.
And 44% of respondents have earmarked the funds to pay off debt or bills, the findings show.
As of March 31, the IRS issued nearly 63 million refunds, with an average payment of $2,910, compared to $3,226 at the same point in the filing season last year.

mediaphotos | E+ | Getty Images

Most Americans will use their tax refund to bolster their finances amid economic uncertainty, stock market volatility and lingering inflation.  
More than one-third of Americans are saving their tax refund this season and 44% have earmarked the funds to pay off debt or bills, according to the CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey, conducted in partnership with Momentive. 

Those percentages were even higher for younger respondents — closer to one-half for Americans ages 18 to 34 years old — based on the March poll of more than 4,300 consumers.

As part of its National Financial Literacy Month efforts, CNBC will be featuring stories throughout the month dedicated to helping people manage, grow and protect their money so they can truly live ambitiously.

A recent Bankrate survey also found that tax refunds are important to most Americans’ financial situation, and that paying off debt and boosting savings are top priorities this year, which is similar to past findings.
“People tend to use this money very practically,” said Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate. “This is something that we see year after year.”
As of March 31, the IRS had issued nearly 63 million refunds, with an average payment of $2,910, compared to $3,226 at the same point in the filing season last year, the agency reported Friday.

Refunds are down 10% at a time when other costs are up significantly.

Ted Rossman
Senior industry analyst at Bankrate

“Refunds are down 10% at a time when other costs are up significantly,” Rossman said. Although inflation has been trending downward, the annual rate was still at 6% in February, including volatile food and energy costs.

“This may be the largest windfall that a typical household receives all year,” Rossman said. “So it’s unfortunate that the amount is getting smaller at a time when other things are costing more.”
Some 45% of Americans expect to receive or have already received a tax refund this season, according to the CNBC survey.

How to pick between savings and debt payoff

Paying off high-interest debt, like a credit card balance, is “always a prudent option” for your tax refund, said Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com, a website that tracks the most competitive options for savings.  
“The average credit card rate is a little bit over 20% these days, which is the highest since we started measuring almost 40 years ago,” Rossman said. “So if you have credit card debt, putting some of this refund money towards that debt is a really good choice.”

Of course, emergency savings is also important, particularly in a shaky economy, Tumin said, noting that it’s a good time to consider a high-yield online savings account, as rates are at their “highest levels in more than a decade.”
Alternatively, you may opt to split your refund between debt payoff and padding your emergency fund, depending on your situation, Rossman added. More

Women & Wealth: A CNBC Your Money Event April 11 – Register at CNBCevents.com

CNBC’s Financial Confidence Survey, conducted in partnership with Momentive, found most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
Fewer than half of U.S. adults said they have an emergency fund.
More women than men admit feeling financially stressed.

Inflation, economic instability and a lack of savings have an increasing number of Americans feeling financially stressed. 
Some 70% of Americans admit to being stressed about their personal finances these days and a majority — 52% — of U.S. adults said their financial stress has increased since before the Covid-19 pandemic began in March 2020, according to a new CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey conducted in partnership with Momentive.

Anxious and uncertain about whether they can get a better handle on their money, some may be intimidated by the prospect of creating a budget or unsure of where to stash their cash to get the highest returns. Others may be wondering how to begin saving for retirement when they’ve gotten off to a late start. 

As part of its National Financial Literacy Month efforts, CNBC will be featuring stories throughout the month dedicated to helping people manage, grow and protect their money so they can truly live ambitiously.

“People are worried that the money they’ve saved won’t last and are worried they’re going to have to lean more on their credit cards and other sources of debt just to get by,” said Bruce McClary, a senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. 

Higher expenses

The cost of the basic household expenses — rent, groceries and utilities — are all higher than a year ago, weakening consumers’ purchasing power. 
Nearly 60% of respondents cited inflation as the main contributor to their financial stress, followed by economy-wide instability (43%), rising interest rates (36%) and a lack of savings (35%), according to the survey of 4,336 adults, which was conducted at the end of March.

Bank failures weaken confidence

A former Woodmere, New York, branch of failed Signature Bank.
Newsday Llc | Newsday | Getty Images

The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and worries about the health of the U.S. financial system add to the uncertainty. Only 13% of adults said they are very confident in America’s banking system. About a third said the recent banking crisis made them much more concerned about their own financial security, and 42% said it made them somewhat more concerned. 

Increasing cost of debt

The survey found most Americans (58%) are living paycheck to paycheck. Struggling to make ends meet, many are relying on credit cards to cover any shortfalls. Meanwhile, nearly one-quarter of those surveyed said credit card debt also contributed to their financial stress. 
Government data shows credit card balances are rising and delinquency rates are increasing. Household debt levels surged by $38 billion in February from a year ago, according to a report by the U.S. Federal Reserve. 

Financial security eroding 

A combination of higher prices for basic goods and services, increasing borrowing rates on credit cards, auto loans, mortgages and other debt, and little or no financial cushion is eating away at people’s sense of financial security. 
Only 45% of U.S. adults said they have an emergency fund. And, for those who do have emergency savings, about 26% polled said they have less than $5,000 saved.

High earners aren’t immune

Even those making $100,000 or more are feeling the squeeze, with the majority (57%) saying they feel financially stressed. About a third of people earning six figures said they are living paycheck to paycheck and more than a quarter said they have no emergency fund. 
“There’s almost no segment of the population that is untouched by the financial pressures that we’re experiencing more broadly at this time,” McClary said. 

What to do with a windfall

Fizkes | Istock | Getty Images

About a quarter of respondents said if they had $10,000, they would invest it in a combination of stocks, bonds and savings. Putting the money in a high-yield savings account was another popular option. Only 7% would invest in the stock market and the same percentage would spend the money. 
Meanwhile, just 4% of women compared to 11% of men would invest a $10,000 windfall in the stock market. Women are more likely to put that windfall in a high-yield savings account or a combination of stocks, bonds and savings, the survey found. 

Women more financially stressed than men

As a group, women are feeling more stressed about the personal finances than men, according to the survey, with 72% of them saying they are financially stressed, compared to 67% of men. Women are also more likely to report they are living paycheck to paycheck and have no emergency savings. 
Some women are also part of the so-called sandwich generation.
“They are juggling physically and financially with the commitments to their children and aging parents,” said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California. 

Women tend to be savers and look for deals, but are more risk averse when it comes to investing.

Lindsay Bryan-Podvin
financial therapist

“We’re talking dealing with issues like long-term care facilities for a parent, while helping their child prepare for their college applications and figuring out how they will be able to pay for college,” said Sun, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council. “It’s a lot of stress.” 
Lower pay and higher costs of child care may also add to financial stress for women. Another reason for the gender difference, experts say, may be the difference in financial education among girls and boys.
“Girls are taught about bargain hunting, the thrill of looking for sales, while boys are taught to take more risks and pursue entrepreneurial activities,” said Lindsay Bryan-Podvin, a Michigan-based financial therapist. “So when they grow up, women tend to be savers and look for deals, but are more risk averse when it comes to investing.”
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Women & Wealth: A CNBC Your Money Event April 11 – Register at CNBCevents.com

Between higher costs and a possible recession looming, families are increasingly feeling under pressure.  
More than half of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to a new CNBC report.
Learning to better manage financial stress boils down to some basic budgeting skills and key behaviors, experts say.

Between higher costs and a possible recession on the horizon, families feel increasingly strained financially.  
More than half, or 58%, of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to the CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey, conducted in partnership with Momentive. 

And even more — roughly 70% — said they feel stressed about their finances, mostly due to inflation, economic uncertainty and rising interest rates, the survey found.
“Whether or not you have significant wealth, everyone is feeling squeezed,” said Misi Simms, portfolio manager at TIAA, a Fortune 100 financial services company.

How to manage financial stress

Adults who are struggling to afford their day-to-day lifestyle feel even more under pressure, according to the CNBC survey conducted in March. They are three times more likely to say a lack of savings or credit card debt is a problem and twice as likely to fear being laid off. They also are more likely to worry about health-care costs and student loan debt.
With stress mounting, the overall financial health of U.S. employees has plummeted overall to only 55% — down from 64% a year ago, according to MetLife’s annual Employee Benefits Trends study.
“People are in survival mode,” said Lindsay Bryan-Podvin, a certified financial therapist and partner of Upwise, MetLife’s Financial Wellness App.

People are in survival mode.

Lindsay Bryan-Podvin
certified financial therapist

Bryan-Podvin advises clients to start by checking in with their “money mood.”
Connecting how you feel to your financial actions, such as making a big purchase or working toward a future goal, helps break free from negative spending and savings patterns, Bryan-Podvin said.
“One of the easiest ways to put this concept into immediate action is by starting to celebrate any small financial ‘wins’ you achieve on a daily, weekly or even monthly basis,” she said.
For example, jot down a few minor goals or milestones you can work toward in the near term, like reducing your subscription count to 10 from 15 or committing to no more than two takeout orders a week, she said.
Once you’ve accomplished one of your goals, treat yourself to something that sparks joy or makes you feel good.

As part of its National Financial Literacy Month efforts, CNBC will be featuring stories throughout the month dedicated to helping people manage, grow and protect their money so they can truly live ambitiously.

Of course, financial literacy is also key to an improved outlook and less stress, according to TIAA’s Simms.
Many studies show a strong connection between financial literacy and financial well-being.
Those with greater financial literacy find it easier to make ends meet in a typical month, are more likely to have higher credit scores and tap lower-cost loans, and less likely to be constrained by debt or be considered financially fragile.
They are also more likely to save and plan for retirement, according to data from the TIAA Institute-GFLEC Personal Finance Index based on research over several years.

While there is an important role for schools to play, a financial education should start at home and continue in the workplace.
“Ask your employer if you can speak to a financial representative,” Simms said. “And then, whatever you learn, take that to your children.”
“We talk to our kids about so many things,” he added. “We should also be talking to them about financial literacy.”

How to get your finances in check

When it comes to better managing your finances, one of the most effective tools is to start with a budget, said Sabino Vargas, senior financial advisor at Vanguard — even if that means going back to a basic envelope-stuffing method to stay disciplined in your spending.
Vargas recommends further strengthening your financial standing by paying down debt, particularly high-interest credit card balances, to improve your monthly cash flow so you can set even more money aside in savings. 
“Understand where money is coming from and where it is going,” Simms also said.
“You may not have three to six months in an emergency fund, but try to commit something to savings,” he advised. “Everyone has to start somewhere.”

Getty Images

To that end, Vanguard’s Vargas suggests paying yourself first. “If you’re struggling to keep track of expenses, try paying yourself first the day your paycheck hits,” he said.
This includes putting money toward emergency savings or a retirement fund and any necessary expenses like rent, car payments and insurance. That will help build up your savings while also prioritizing your largest and most important expenses. (If your employer has a 401(k) plan and offers a match, always contribute enough to get that match, he also advised.)
But just because you’re looking to save more, doesn’t mean you have to give up all indulgences, he added.
To avoid overspending on discretionary items or activities, such as going out to eat, it may help to set a monthly budget for how much you can spend, as well as how often, “so you are not sacrificing the things you really enjoy,” he said. More

Because of the way credit scores are calculated, forgiven student debt may lead to a temporary drop in some borrowers’ scores.
Here’s what you need to know.

Liubomyr Vorona | Istock | Getty Images

The Biden administration’s sweeping plan to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt for tens of millions of Americans may have an unintended, though hopefully temporary, consequence for some people, experts say.
“For many borrowers, it will cause their credit scores to drop,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Here’s why: Throughout the three-year pause on federal student loan payments, borrowers’ accounts have been reported to the credit bureaus as current, Kantrowitz said. (Payments are currently scheduled to restart by September.)
More from Personal Finance:Here are the 2 Supreme Court student loan forgiveness casesFederal student loan payments could restart in roughly 2 months, or 6Being behind on federal student loans can lead to more money problems
On-time payments help boost people’s scores.
“Payment history is the most important factor in the credit scoring formula,” said Ted Rossman, senior analyst at Bankrate.com.
If the Supreme Court rules that the relief plan is legal and can go into effect, however, millions of borrowers will have their student debt balances wiped out entirely and lose out on that positive reporting, Kantrowitz said.

Of course, a temporary dip in a credit score will not likely matter much to someone getting thousands of dollars in debt forgiveness. Also, those who still have a balance after the cancellation won’t see a drop if they pay their bills on time.

And although the relief may lower scores a bit, having less debt ultimately helps your rating, Rossman said. That’s because owing less improves your so-called debt-to-income ratio, he said.
Lenders look at this ratio when deciding how much to let you borrow. Some use something called the 28/36 rule, which specifies that no more than 28% of your monthly gross income goes toward housing costs, and no more than 36% goes toward total debts. (A few mortgage lenders have even higher caps.)
“So overall, I see student loan forgiveness as a significant benefit to someone’s overall financial situation, even if their credit score may decline a little bit in the short term,” Rossman said.

Focus on paying down other debt

Despite the possible ding to borrowers’ credit scores, another benefit to those who get their student loans forgiven will be the chance to pay down other debt faster, Rossman said.
With the average credit card interest rate at record highs, he said, “it’s important to make credit card debt payoff a priority.”
“Any extra money you can funnel toward this debt can also improve your credit score as a result,” Rossman added.

If the Biden administration is able to proceed with student loan forgiveness, Rossman said he expects the relief to show up on credit reports within a month or two. He recommends you check your report regularly for free at AnnualCreditReport.com to make sure all three credit rating companies — Experian, Equifax and TransUnion — are showing the correct information, including a possibly lower student debt balance.
If the Biden plan doesn’t survive the Supreme Court, the resumption of student loan bills should not affect borrowers’ credit scores as long as they remain current, Kantrowitz said. More

While young adults said 21 is a good age to start paying some of their own expenses, older generations are more likely to think that their kids should be completely financially independent by then.
Meanwhile, 68% of parents are sacrificing their own financial well-being to help support their grown children, according to a new Bankrate report.

Most people feel like a grownup by the time they’re 18, but these days young adults might not become financially independent until years later.
And even then, parents and their children could disagree on what exactly that means.

While young adults said 21 is a good age to start paying some of their own expenses, older generations are more likely to think that their kids should be completely financially independent by then, according to a new report by Bankrate.com.
More from Personal Finance:Most adults make this simple money mistake62% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheckPrioritizing retirement and emergency savings in a shaky economy
In part, millennials and Gen Z face financial challenges that their parents did not as young adults. On top of carrying much more student loan debt, their wages are lower than their parents’ earnings when they were in their 20s and 30s.
Of course, inflation has made it even harder for those trying to achieve financial independence. Soaring food and housing costs pose additional hurdles for young adults just starting out.
Now, 68% of parents with children over age 18 are making a financial sacrifice to help support them, according to Bankrate’s report.

From buying groceries to paying for cell phone plans or covering health and auto insurance, parents are spending more than $1,400 a month, on average, helping their adult children make ends meet, a separate report by Savings.com found.

When ‘offering financial assistance can backfire’

Jason Stitt | Getty Images

For parents, however, supporting grown children can be a substantial drain at a time when their own financial security is in jeopardy. 
“Remember that saying about putting your oxygen mask on before helping others?” said Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst. “Offering financial assistance can backfire if it puts your own savings, investments and financial well-being at risk.”
About half of parents with adult children said that support has come at the expense of their own emergency savings or ability to pay down debt, while slightly fewer said supporting their children has been detrimental to their retirement savings, Bankrate found.

‘Where to draw the line’

“It’s hard to know exactly where to draw that line,” Rossman said. Make sure the assistance works within your budget and be clear about the parameters — at the very least, discuss it, he advised. “It might help to attach a specific dollar amount or timeframe.”
“Everybody is everyone else’s lifeboat when it comes to hitting an iceberg,” said Laurence Kotlikoff, economics professor at Boston University and president of MaxiFi, which offers financial planning software.

However, “it has to go both ways,” Kotlikoff said. “Parents are providing a lot of support, and the kids have to realize that the quid pro quo here is that they’re going to be expected to take care of their parents.”
Having an open dialogue can help, he added. “Once that conversation gets going, it can continue for the next 40 years.”
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Gabriel Quezada, 17, is on track to complete one to two years of college coursework by the time he finishes high school in June.
The California teen attends an “early college” program, which allows students to take undergraduate-level classes, often through a local community college, at little to no cost.

Gabriel Quezada, 17, is a senior at Early College High School in Costa Mesa, California.
Gabriel Quezada

As college costs soar and enrollment falters, there’s an alternative to a pricey four-year degree that’s been largely under the radar, until recently.
But Gabriel Quezada, 17, was reluctant to try it.

His father, Humberto Quezada, said he first heard about the Early College High School in Costa Mesa, California, when Gabriel was in third grade. But when Gabriel got older, it was hard to convince him to go. So they made a deal: Gabriel would start as a freshman, but if he didn’t like it, he could switch to his local public school.
More from Personal Finance:How to understand your financial aid offerThe cheapest states for in-state college tuitionThese 4 moves can help you save big on college costs
“Early college” programs are a type of dual enrollment that allows students to complete college-level coursework while they are still in high school.
Ultimately, Gabriel stuck it out. This June, he will graduate with his high school diploma and an associate degree in business under his belt. “That’s 60 or so credits done,” he said.
Already, he has been accepted to the University of California, Los Angeles and half a dozen other schools, but is still waiting on several scholarship opportunities, including one from the Angels Baseball Foundation, which would cover all four years of college. “I am hoping I won’t have to take out many loans or any loans at all,” he said.

Completing some coursework at a community college and then transferring to a four-year school is a proven pathway to getting a degree for significantly less money.
After enrollment in two-year colleges nosedived during the pandemic, a number of students are now catching on, according to a new report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, which showed a jump in dual enrollment.
“It’s encouraging to see this second straight year of growth in spring freshmen and dual-enrolled high school students,” said Doug Shapiro, the research center’s executive director.

How ‘early college’ programs work

Unlike Advanced Placement, another program in which high school students take courses and exams that could earn them college credit, dual enrollment is a state-run program that often works in partnership with a local community college.
These programs are not restricted to high school students on a specific — and often accelerated — academic track, as many AP classes are.
Not all students graduate high school with an associate degree, but most finish with at least one year of college credit, which gives them the option to enter college as a transfer student.
At least 35 states have policies that guarantee that students with an associate degree can transfer to a four-year state school as a junior.

Arrows pointing outwards

That shaves two years off the cost of a bachelor’s degree, effectively cutting the tab in half, as well as the student loan debt.
Early college students are also more likely to enroll in college and earn a degree compared with their peers who were not enrolled in early college programs, according to one study by the American Institutes for Research.
“Our research shows that early colleges are an effective way to increase rates of college-going and college completion, and that the return on the investment in these programs is positive for both the student and society at large,” said Kristina Zeiser, AIR’s principal researcher.
Although there are up to 900 early college programs nationwide, according to Zeiser, not that many people know about them. 

‘A very smart way to start your higher education’

“The culture is different from your average high school,” said David Martinez, principal of the Early College High School.
The high school is a Title I school in the Newport-Mesa Unified School District of Orange County, California, which means there is a high percentage of low-income students. Funding is provided by the district and the state. “Parents don’t pay a dime,” Martinez said.
Students take a mix of high school- and college-level courses, shortening the time it takes to complete a high school diploma and one to two years of college coursework.
“Families need a 21st century approach to prepare their kids for college, and this is one of the ways to do it,” Martinez said.

Families need a 21st century approach to prepare their kids for college, and this is one of the ways to do it.

David Martinez
principal of Early College High School, Costa Mesa, California

Nearly two-thirds of community college dual enrollment students nationally were from low- or middle-income families, according to an earlier study from Columbia University’s Teachers College.
Of those students, 88% continued on to college after high school, and most earned a degree within six years.
“It’s a very smart way to start your higher education,” said Martha Parham, senior vice president of public relations at the American Association of Community Colleges.
Over four years, early college programs cost about $3,800 more per student than traditional high school, according to another study by AIR.
However, the estimated return on that investment is nearly $34,000 in increased lifetime earnings.
“Getting an associate’s degree for free can really put you on a path where everything seems more feasible,” Zeiser said.
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A logo of Meta Platforms Inc. is seen at its booth, at the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups, at Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris, France June 17, 2022.
Benoit Tessier | Reuters

Signs of a potential slowdown in the jobs market are emerging and triggering worries about an impending recession, but investors would be wise to ignore the noise.
Instead, investors should keep an eye out for stocks with strong fundamentals and robust growth potential — two characteristics that can get them through a rocky patch for the market.

related investing news

an hour ago

To that effect, here are five stocks chosen by Wall Street’s top pros, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance. 

Meta Platforms 

Weakness in digital ad spending due to macro pressures has hit social media giant Meta Platforms (META) over the recent quarters. Nonetheless, the company is reducing its workforce, canceling lower-priority projects and curtailing non-headcount-related expenses to improve its profitability.  
While Meta is calling 2023 the “Year of Efficiency,” JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth says that the company is “building the critical muscle for financial discipline over the long term.” (See Meta Platforms Financial Statements on TipRanks) 
Anmuth expects Meta’s revenue to return to double-digit growth in the second half of 2023 and 2024, fueled by several key drivers like artificial intelligence and product-driven improvements to the ad stack following the implementation of Apple’s App Tracking Transparency feature, the rise in the engagement and monetization of Reels, and the solid rise in click-to-message ads.   
“While Meta shares have more than doubled off the early November lows, we still think there’s meaningful upside ahead driven by accelerating revenue growth, continued cost efficiencies, and still attractive valuation,” the analyst said.  

Based on his bullish investment thesis, Anmuth raised his December 2023 price target for META stock to $270 from $225 and reiterated a buy rating. He is ranked No. 157 among the more than 8,300 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 58% of the time, with each rating delivering an average return of 14.5%.  

SoFi Technologies 

Next on our list is fintech firm SoFi Technologies (SOFI), which offers digital financial services to over 5.2 million members. SoFi recently announced the acquisition of fintech mortgage lender Wyndham Capital Mortgage. The acquisition is expected to drive SoFi’s mortgage growth and operational efficiencies and broaden its mortgage product offerings.  
Jefferies analyst John Hecht, who ranks No. 366 among more than 8,300 analysts tracked by TipRanks, expects the Wyndham acquisition to help SoFi accelerate its mortgage originations volume “at the same time as the SOFI bank continues to grow deposits at an accelerated pace of 7.3x in 2022.” Note that SoFi’s mortgage segment accounted for about 4% of total originations in the fourth quarter of 2022.      
The analyst also highlighted that the Wyndham acquisition would “minimize” SoFi’s dependence on third-party partners and processes, thus driving cost savings over the long term.  
Hecht reiterated a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $8 saying, “We view the transaction favorably as it is strategic and will enhance SOFI’s mortgage segment, while taking advantage of the current Fintech valuation environment as an opportunity to build into the next mtg. cycle.” 
Hecht has a success rate of 59%, and each of his ratings has returned an average of 9.2%. (See SoFi Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks) 

PVH 

Apparel company PVH (PVH), which owns popular brands like Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, delivered better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. The company is optimistic about the road ahead, supported by its PVH+ Plan, a multi-year direct-to-consumer and digitally-led growth strategy that aims to further strengthen the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands.  
Guggenheim analyst Robert Drbul feels that the PVH+ Plan would drive favorable earnings revisions and multiple expansion. The analyst sees “an attractive risk reward profile” in PVH stock based on the company’s earnings growth potential and current valuation.  
“We believe in Tommy and Calvin brand strength globally and ongoing margin initiatives at the company, which we anticipate will position PVH favorably as the world continues to reopen and recover,” the analyst said.   
Drbul raised his price target for PVH stock to $110 from $105 and reiterated a buy rating based on the company’s streamlining efforts, revenue growth potential, and margin expansion possibilities. 
Drbul holds the 364th position among the more than 8,300 analysts followed by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 62% of the time, with each rating delivering an average return of 8%. (See PVH Stock Chart on TipRanks)  

Walmart 

Drbul is also bullish on retail giant Walmart (WMT). After attending the company’s investment community meeting in Tampa, Florida, the analyst reaffirmed a buy rating on Walmart with a price target of $165.  
Drbul said that Walmart is well-positioned in the current retail backdrop and has one of the strongest leadership teams, referring mainly to its CEO Doug McMillon, whom he called “one of the best visionaries.” Despite the ongoing uncertainty, Drbul expects WMT shares to touch new highs as the company continues to execute its growth strategy. (See Walmart Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks) 
The analyst highlighted the significant progress that Walmart has made on the e-commerce front and its focus on technology. E-commerce now contributes to $82 billion or 14% of Walmart’s overall sales, up from $25 billion or 5% of sales five years ago. Walmart sees an opportunity for its e-commerce business to reach $100 billion in the near future.    
“Combining this meeting’s top-line objectives and strategies, along with its relentless tech-enabled focus, Walmart is executing several initiatives that stand out as margin-enhancing, including the focus on automation, and its market fulfillment initiatives that further utilize technology and robotics,” said Drbul.  
Overall, he is upbeat about Walmart’s long-term strategy, including its efforts to enhance the omnichannel shopping experience and build a more diversified profit base that’s “led by a growing marketplace and fulfillment services, advertising, financial services, data monetization, and its healthcare offering.” 

Airbnb  

Airbnb (ABNB), an online marketplace for short-term rentals, ended 2022 with market-beating fourth-quarter results. The company is benefiting from pent-up travel demand despite persistent macro pressures.  
Recently, Tigress Financial Partners’ analyst Ivan Feinseth increased his price target for ABNB stock to $185 from $160 and maintained a buy rating. The analyst acknowledged that the company continues to benefit from solid travel demand and the shift in consumer preference to “alternative, better-value accommodations.”  
“ABNB remains at the forefront of how consumers prefer to travel by offering a broad variance of accommodations from budget to extravagant and meeting the needs for a broad range of stay duration while benefiting significantly from ongoing hybrid work and travel trends,” said Feinseth.  
He expects a notable rise in Airbnb’s return on capital over time, boosted by the booking fee income of its asset-light business model. The analyst listed several drivers of the company’s future growth, including the ability to enhance capacity by adding new hosts, investment in new technologies, international expansion, cobranded buildings and growing partnerships with travel service providers.  
Feinseth ranks No. 154 among the more than 8,300 analysts tracked by TipRanks. Additionally, 62% of his ratings have been profitable, with an average return of 12%. (See Airbnb Hedge Fund Trading Activity on TipRanks)   More

Realpeoplegroup | E+ | Getty Images

Company: OCI NV (OCI-NL)

Business: OCI produces and distributes hydrogen-based and natural gas-based products to agricultural, transportation, and industrial customers. It operates through the following segments: Methanol U.S., Methanol Europe, Nitrogen U.S., Nitrogen Europe and Fertiglobe. The company offers anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, calcium ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate, aqueous ammonia, nitric acid, urea solution, bio-methanol, methanol, melamine and diesel exhaust fluid, as well as other nitrogen products. OCI also owns and operates an ammonia terminal at the port of Rotterdam. The company has operations in Europe, the Americas, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Oceania.
Stock Market Value: ~6.3 billion Euros (29.93 Euros per share), according to FactSet

Activist: Inclusive Capital Partners

Percentage Ownership:  ~5.0%
Average Cost: n/a
Activist Commentary: Inclusive Capital Partners is a San Francisco-based investment firm which partners with companies that enable solutions to address environmental and social problems. Founded in 2020 by Jeff Ubben, who previously founded ValueAct Capital in 2000, Inclusive seeks to leverage capitalism and governance in pursuit of a healthy planet and the health of its inhabitants while creating long-term value for shareholders. As a pioneering activist ESG (“AESG”) investor, Inclusive seeks long-term shareholder value through active partnership with companies whose core businesses contribute solutions to this pursuit. The firm’s primary focus is on environmental and social value creation, which leads to shareholder value creation.

What’s happening?

Inclusive sent a letter to Nassef Sawiris, executive chairman of OCI, expressing the firm’s belief that OCI is worth approximately 90% more than its current stock price and calling on the board to explore strategic options to unlock the company’s value.

Behind the scenes

The majority of OCI’s business relates to fertilizer for agricultural purposes and other nitrogen products with approximately 12% of revenue generated through methanol fuel products. This business does $9.7 billion in revenue and $3.6 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. However, the opportunity here is what the future brings.

OCI is presently embarking on a $1 billion development of the largest blue ammonia facility in the United States located in Beaumont, Texas. It will be a state-of-the-art facility at the forefront of blue ammonia production and is expected to come online in 2025 and produce 1.1 million tons of blue ammonia annually. This facility will combine nitrogen with blue hydrogen to create blue ammonia. It is considered “blue” ammonia because the carbon emissions produced from the hydrogen production process are captured and stored. Blue ammonia has a number of product applications in OCI’s existing product lines as a sustainable and low carbon input for fertilizer, fuel and feed. Moreover, liquefied blue ammonia can be sold domestically or shipped to OCI’s ammonia import terminal in the port of Rotterdam, as they see European demand for hydrogen and ammonia as a major growth area fueled by the energy transition and decarbonization.
Because of the recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. and carbon taxes in Europe, the production of blue ammonia will have several financial benefits. First, the IRA increased the tax credit for each ton of carbon stored to $85 per ton, up from $50. OCI’s plan will produce 1.1 million tons of ammonia that generates 1.7 million tons of carbon, virtually all of which is captured and stored. Second, this blue ammonia will be sold through an ammonia terminal at the port of Rotterdam that OCI owns and operates. Because it is low-carbon fuel, it will not be subject to the $100 per ton carbon tax on competing products, allowing OCI to sell at a market price and reap an additional $100 per ton of margin. This is expected to lead to $350 million of annual EBITDA from the $1 billion of capex required. Moreover, ammonia is easier to ship than hydrogen because it can be transported at a temperature of  -33°C versus -253°C for hydrogen. For these reasons, blue ammonia can serve as an important source of decarbonized hydrogen, is poised to be a large part of a green energy future, and it has several secular tailwinds.
Inclusive believes that OCI’s methanol business, combined with its low carbon ammonia project in Beaumont, has significant strategic value and could generate interest from large energy players looking to accelerate their energy transitions. As a reference, Inclusive cited BP’s acquisition of biogas producer Archaea Energy for $4.1 billion (29x EV/’22 EBITDA) in December 2022; Chevron’s acquisition of Renewable Energy Group for $3.1 billion in June 2022; and Shell’s $2 billion acquisition of Nature Energy Biogas, which was announced last November and completed in February. Additionally, Inclusive noted that OCI’s modern, strategically located Iowa Fertilizer Company plant would be of great value to pure-play fertilizer companies, such as Nutrien, seeking nitrogen production in the U.S. corn belt. Further, Inclusive noted that Fertiglobe’s successful IPO showed the value within OCI’s portfolio, with OCI’s stake in Fertiglobe worth nearly its entire market capitalization in the past year. It is important to note that Inclusive’s Jeff Ubben sits on the board of Fertiglobe with Nassef Sawiris, executive chairman of OCI.
Ubben has always liked companies that he thought were misunderstood by the market, and Inclusive always has an impact element as a primary investment thesis. In this case, generally capex in a commodity business is viewed negatively by investors. But for all of the reasons mentioned above it could very well be a huge positive for not only OCI shareholders, but also the environment.
Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments. More