Investing

Year-end Planning

How much retirees pay for Medicare Part B premiums is based on their incomes.
An income increase of just $1 may trigger higher rates.
Here’s how year-end tax strategies may influence how much retirees pay for Medicare Part B coverage in future years.

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Social Security beneficiaries are set to receive a 3.2% increase to their benefits in 2024 based on the annual cost-of-living adjustment, the Social Security Administration announced on Thursday.
The change will result in an estimated Social Security retirement benefit increase of more than $50 per month, on average. The average monthly retirement benefit for workers will be $1,907, up from $1,848 this year, according to the Social Security Administration.

But beneficiaries won’t know exactly how much of an increase they will see until December, when they receive their annual benefit statements, Mary Beth Franklin, a certified financial planner and Social Security expert, said Thursday during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit.

More from Year-End Planning

Here’s a look at more coverage on what to do finance-wise as the end of the year approaches:

One factor that may offset those benefit increases is the size of Medicare Part B premiums, which are typically deducted directly from monthly Social Security checks.
“You will be getting a larger Social Security benefit next year,” Franklin said.
“But remember, depending on your income, you may also be paying a lot more for Medicare,” Franklin said.

Medicare Part B premiums are based on income

Medicare Part B covers physician services, outpatient hospital services, some home health care services, durable medical equipment and certain other services not covered by Medicare Part A.

Medicare Part B premiums for 2024 have not yet been announced. The Medicare trustees have projected the standard monthly premium may be $174.80 in 2024, up from $164.90 in 2023.
But some beneficiaries may pay much higher rates based on their incomes, in what is known as income-related monthly adjustment amounts, or IRMAA.
In 2023, you pay the $164.90 standard Part B premium if you file individually and have $97,000 or less (or $194,000 or less for couples) in modified adjusted gross income on your federal tax return in 2021.
Those monthly premiums go up to as much as $560.50 per month for individuals with incomes of $500,000 and up, or couples with $750,000 and up.
No matter the monthly Part B premium rate, beneficiaries get the “exact same Medicare services,” according to Franklin.

It is truly like a hurricane for your health care costs in retirement.

Mary Beth Franklin
CFP and Social Security expert

If your income goes up by even $1, you may be bumped up to a higher Medicare Part B premium tier and have to pay extra.
“It is truly like a hurricane for your health care costs in retirement,” Franklin said.
In 2024, the monthly Part B premiums will be based on information in 2022 federal tax returns.
Beneficiaries and their financial advisors would be wise to pay attention to how their incomes may change, and therefore affect Medicare Part B premium rates, when implementing three year-end tax strategies, Franklin said.

1. Roth conversions

A Roth conversion happens when pre-tax funds from a traditional IRA or an eligible qualified retirement plan like a 401(k) are moved to a post-tax retirement account.
While this triggers an immediate tax bill because that money is treated as income for the year, it frees up the possibility for tax-free retirement withdrawals later.
However, that extra income for this year may trigger higher Medicare Part B premiums later, Franklin warned.
“Advisors may want to reach out to their clients and say, ‘Remember, for long-term tax planning purposes, we did that Roth IRA conversion?” Franklin said. “‘Your Medicare premium may go up. But it might just be a one-year hit.'”

2. Tax loss harvesting

As the year ends, one popular strategy advisors may employ is tax loss harvesting, where some investments are sold at a loss to offset the capital gains owed on other profitable investments.
This strategy may help reduce adjusted gross income and future Medicare premiums, Franklin said.

3. Qualified charitable distributions

Retirees who are taking distributions from IRAs and who want to make charitable donations may want to consider making those contributions directly from their retirement accounts in what is known as a qualified charitable distribution.
“That money does not show up on your tax return, and will not boost your income taxes or your future Medicare premiums,” Franklin said.
Of note, even though required minimum distributions now start at age 73 (if you reach age 72 after Dec. 31, 2022), qualified charitable distributions are still available to retirees ages 70½ or older, Franklin noted. More

The housing market is dealing with several “tricky” dynamics, said Tracy Kasper, president of the National Association of Realtors.
Those dynamics include an “inventory crisis” and the highest mortgage rates in decades.

Prospective buyers visit an open house for sale in Alexandria, Virginia.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

The housing market is dealing with several “tricky” dynamics, according to Tracy Kasper, president of the National Association of Realtors.
“What we’ve experienced over the last probably 12 to 18 months is what I really like to call a leveling,” Kasper said Thursday during CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit.

That slowdown in home sales comes after “exponential increases year over year” during the Covid-19 pandemic, Kasper said.
With fewer people selling their houses, she said, there is now an “inventory crisis.”
“We’ve seen a crunch — our first-time homebuyers are struggling,” she added.

First-time homebuyers’ woes

During the Covid-19 pandemic, first-time homebuyers found it hard to compete with other buyers who had more cash to spare, Kasper said.
Now, they simply can’t find anything as current homeowners are reluctant to put their house on the market and give up existing low-rate mortgage.

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Mortgage rates are currently approaching 8%, the highest level in decades, and have priced many first-time homebuyers out of the market, Kasper said.
Higher rates add to monthly payments, which can mean it’s harder to qualify for a mortgage. Last year, lenders were denied loan applications due to “insufficient income” more often than any other point since records began in 2018, according to a new report from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
“In most cases, income did not increase at the pace of average mortgage payments,” certified financial planner Barry Glassman, founder and president of Glassman Wealth Services in McLean, Virginia, recently told CNBC.
Glassman is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
Given these obstacles, Kasper said real estate insiders are desperately seeking ways to increase inventory, including pushing for government incentives such as tax breaks for sellers.
“We’re looking for any conversation that we can have, that would open up that inventory,” Kasper said.
Housing and banking groups also sent a letter to the Federal Reserve this month, strongly encouraging the central bank to not contemplate further rate hikes. More

People looking to help those affected by the Israel-Gaza crisis can consider donating to charities working on the ground.
People want to make sure they’re giving their money to legitimate charities that are making a difference, experts say.
Here’s what to know about giving smartly and safely.

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People looking to help those affected by the Israel-Gaza crisis can consider donating to charities working on the ground.
Here’s what to know.

Verify charities to avoid scams

Look for organizations ‘with a clear plan’

Laurie Styron, CEO and executive director of CharityWatch, said her organization looks for charities that already have a presence in the affected region and a history of helping people there.
“If it’s not an organization with a clear plan, your donation could just sit there,” Styron said.
The folks at CharityWatch have put together a list of top-rated charities providing aid during the Israel-Gaza crisis. The list includes Doctors Without Borders, which has had medical programs in Gaza for more than 20 years, Styron said. “So they’re going to be able to mobilize quickly.”

There are a lot of innocent people suffering.

Laurie Styron
CEO of CharityWatch

Another charity on its list is the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee, which is currently providing a wide range of emergency services to victims in Israel.
Meanwhile, Charity Navigator’s list of charities focusing on the Israel-Gaza crisis includes only organizations that are at least three years old, show a three- or four-star rating and have a track record of positive results in their region, among other requirements. Its list includes American Friends of Magen David Adom, known as the Israeli Red Cross, and the Palestine Children’s Relief Fund, which works specifically in Gaza.
“There is a very big need,” said Shlomi Zidky, CEO of Round Up, a fundraising platform that has also gathered a network of verified charities helping victims in Israel.
Aid organizations are “the main lifelines for people,” Zidky said, adding that they are getting people food, medical and psychological support and other vital resources.

Create a plan for giving

Many donors may be unsure where to put their money of late with the barrage of violence and natural disasters, including the Ukraine war and the earthquake in Afghanistan, Styron said.
“The more people impacted, the more overwhelmed people become, and they can get desensitized and not act,” Styron said.

That can be especially true when an issue is politically fraught, like with the Israel-Gaza crisis.
“What people need to remember is that whatever side you align yourself with, there are a lot of innocent people suffering,” she said. “Give what you can afford.”

Donations may reduce taxable income

Eligible donations can be deducted from your adjusted gross income if you itemize deductions on your taxes.
For 2023, the standard deduction is $13,850 for single filers or $27,700 for married couples filing together.
You either claim the standard deduction or your total itemized deductions, including charitable gifts, medical expenses, state and local taxes and more — whichever is more.
Since most filers take the standard deduction, you’re less likely to see a tax benefit from smaller gifts to charity, but it depends on your total combined itemized deductions.
— Additional reporting by CNBC’s Kate Dore.
Correction: Donors are looking to help victims of an earthquake in Afghanistan. An earlier version misstated the natural disaster.
Join CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on Oct. 12, where we’ll talk with top advisors, investors, market experts, technologists and economists about what advisors can do now to position their clients for the best possible outcomes as we head into the last quarter of 2023 and face the unknown in 2024. Learn more and get your ticket today. More

The possibility of an economic downturn has been the talk of 2023.
While the feared downturn has not happened yet, experts are still on guard.
Here’s how you can be ready, too.

Shoppers along the Magnificent Mile shopping district in Chicago on Aug. 15, 2023.
Jamie Kelter Davis | Bloomberg | Getty Images

A recession has been in the forecast for much of 2023.
Yet an economic downturn — formally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth — has yet to happen.

“A recession is obviously going to happen at some point,” said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “But the timing of that is not set in stone.”
Most economists — 61% — put a recession at a less than 50% probability in the next 12 months, according to the latest report from the National Association for Business Economics released this week.
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Yet 39% of respondents put the risk of a formal downturn within that time period at more than 50%, the survey found. Of those who expect a recession, half said they would expect it to begin in the first quarter.
“We are still expecting the economy to slow down considerably and then get into a recession in the first two quarters of next year,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James.

That outlook is based on expectations consumers may pull back on spending while the housing market may face stress, Aleman said. In addition, new conflict in the Middle East may affect both oil prices and the supply chain.
Those factors may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, Aleman said.

The probability of a recession has crept up in the past few months along with negative headlines, Manley said, citing the autoworkers strike, a looming federal government shutdown that was temporarily averted, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve and broader geopolitical issues.
Those worries may prompt consumers to pull back heading into the biggest spending time of the year, Manley said.
“Our confidence is so crushed because of all of these bad headlines, because of this wall of worry,” Manley said.
“There is the chance that we don’t spend as much as we probably would have been planning on before all of these bad headlines,” he said.

A recession is obviously going to happen at some point. But the timing of that is not set in stone.

Jack Manley
global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management

For many consumers, elevated price growth has made it feel like a recession is already here, surveys show.
Whether a recession is coming or not, these are financial advisors’ top tips for how to prepare now.

1. Stress-test your finances

Much of how a recession may affect you comes down to whether you still have a job, Barry Glassman, a certified financial planner and founder and president of Glassman Wealth Services, told CNBC.com earlier this year. Glassman is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
An economic downturn may also create a situation where even those who are still employed earn less, he noted.
As such, it’s a good idea to evaluate how well you could handle an income drop. Consider how long, if you were to lose your job, you could keep up with bills, based on savings and other resources available to you.
“Stress-test your income against your ongoing obligations,” Glassman said. “Make sure you have some sort of safety net.”
Notably, job growth was strong in September, according to the latest government data.

2. Boost emergency savings

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Even having just a little more cash set aside can help ensure an unforeseen event like a car repair or unexpected bill does not sink your budget.
Yet surveys show many Americans would be hard pressed to cover a $400 expense in cash.
Experts say the key is to automate your savings so you do not even see the money in your paycheck.
“Even if we do get through this period relatively unscathed, that’s all the more reason to be saving,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, recently told CNBC.com.
“I have yet to meet anybody who saved too much money,” he added.
Another advantage to saving now: Rising interest rates mean the potential returns on that money are the highest they have been in 15 years.

3. Reduce your debt balances

If you have credit card debt, you’re not alone.
Balances topped $1 trillion for the first time in the second quarter.
While higher interest rates are pushing up how much you fork over for debts, you can control that by paying down your balances, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, previously told CNBC.com.

“For inflation to grow this quickly is something that is really rattling to people,” Schulz said.
But certain moves may help you to control your personal interest rate, he said.
If you have outstanding credit card balances you’re carrying from month to month, try to lower the costs you’re paying on that debt, either through a 0% balance transfer offer or a personal loan.
Alternatively, you may try simply asking your current credit card company for a lower interest rate.

4. Be opportunistic

Fears of an economic downturn or market turbulence can provide an opportunity for investors who are willing to take risks, according to Kamila Elliott, a CFP and co-founder and CEO of Collective Wealth Partners in Atlanta.
If you’re five years away from retirement or even closer, now is the time to sit down with a trustworthy financial planner to make sure you’re on track, Elliott, who is a member of the CNBC Advisor Council, told CNBC.com earlier this year.
For those who are further away from retirement — with that goal 10 to 30 years from now — this may be a time to take more risks because you have time to ride out any market volatility, Elliott said.
The average market return tends to bounce back, which can result in meaningful progress over time.
Elliott said it reminds her of a famous quote from legendary investor Warren Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
“We take that philosophy looking at our investments whenever there’s fear and there’s risk there’s also, oftentimes, opportunity,” Elliott said.
Join CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on Oct. 12, where we’ll talk with top advisors, investors, market experts, technologists and economists about what advisors can do now to position their clients for the best possible outcomes as we head into the last quarter of 2023 and face the unknown in 2024. Learn more and get your ticket today. More

The average credit card interest rate for existing accounts is at 22.77%, the highest it has been in 30 years, according to a report by WalletHub.
Despite using automated payments to avoid missing due dates, cardholders can still end up paying late fees and interest charges on top of actual balances.
Here’s how to avoid paying more than what you actually owe.

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Given record-high interest rates, now is not the time to be taking on more credit card debt.
The Federal Reserve is expected to further hike interest rates before the end of the year, and the average credit card interest rate is already at an all-time high. The average rate for existing accounts is at 22.77%, the highest it has been in 30 years, according to WalletHub.

Automated payment options can help credit card holders bypass late payment fees. While cardholders who use automated payment features typically set them for more than the minimum due, they also tend to pay off less of their monthly balance than customers making manual payments, according to a 2022 study.
Such cardholders will end up paying more in interest in the long run if they don’t pay their statement balance in full each month, experts say.
“You can set it up for a lower payment,” said Sara Rathner, credit cards expert and writer at NerdWallet, referring to a monthly automated card payment. “If you still have a balance, [that] will roll over as long as it’s unpaid.” But that unpaid balance will be subject to interest charges.
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Avoid paying more in interest and fees by setting up your credit card automated payments to cover the entire statement balance, experts say. If you check your account online, you may also see a “current” balance that includes newer charges, but you only have to pay the statement balance in full each month to avoid interest charges.

If you can’t pay your statement balance in full, be sure to make smaller payments on a regular basis to keep current and chip away at your overall balance, said Nick Ewen, director of content at The Points Guy. Not doing so can mean hefty late fees in addition to accrued interest.
You usually can pay off your statement or current balance whenever you like. “There’s no penalty charge on your card if you pay your statement balance before the due date,” Ewen added.
Here are some of the best practices cardholders should consider:

1. Move the due date closer to your payday

Ask your lender if you can change your card payment due date to a few days after your paycheck is deposited, said Rathner. This way, you’re aware of how much money is available in your checking account before a scheduled automatic card payment goes through and you won’t overdraft your account, she added.
Log into your credit card account online or call a customer service agent to find out what features you have available to facilitate this.

2. Watch out for penalty APRs

Zero percent annual percentage rate offers are usually good for 12 to 18 months. However, if a cardholder does not make a minimum payment, the card issuer can revoke the 0% APR offer and push the customer into an APR of 29% or higher, said Ewen.
Make sure to read the fine print and make all the payments to keep the offer rate. Additionally, pay off the full balance before the promotion expires. Otherwise, you will be hit with interest charges at that point, he added.

3. Consider a balance transfer or product change

If you’re carrying credit card debt, consider doing a balance transfer, said Ewen. Some credit cards offer a 0% APR for balance transfers for, as an example, a one-time fee of 3% to 5% or $5, he said. If you transfer a balance from one card to another for a 12-month 0% APR, you have a year to pay off the balance as long as you pay it off by the time the introductory special is over.
Additionally, if the terms change with one of your existing credit cards, most larger credit card companies will offer you a product change, said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners in Irvine, California.
Instead of closing the affected card, move to another card from the issuer that has no annual fee, she added. This is helpful if you have a high-fee credit card and want to keep the overlying credit line high.
“It doesn’t require credit pool and reduces credit card expenses,” said Sun, a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council. Call the provider and see if a product change is available.
Join CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on Oct. 12, where we’ll talk with top advisors, investors, market experts, technologists and economists about what advisors can do now to position their clients for the best possible outcomes as we head into the last quarter of 2023 and face the unknown in 2024. Learn more and get your ticket today. More

Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event is expected to bring in $8.1 billion this year, according to an Adobe Analytics forecast.
How good are the deals? It depends on the category.
Several data points suggest these Prime Day sales events might be losing their luster with shoppers.

An Amazon driver delivers packages in Washington, D.C., on Aug. 27, 2023.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

Amazon’s Prime Day sales event is officially underway for the second time this year. The online retailer’s Prime Big Deal Days is expected to bring in $8.1 billion this year, according to an Adobe Analytics forecast.
The 48-hour sale offers exclusive deals for Amazon Prime members and marks the official start of the holiday shopping season for the e-commerce retailer — well before most forecasts include sales in the “holiday sales” time periods.

Forty-one percent of consumers say they have already started or plan to shop by the end of October, according to the Shopify-Gallup Holiday Shopper Pulse survey out Tuesday.
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The Amazon sale event comes as Americans face mounting economic pressures, including rising interest rates, persistent inflation and the restart of student loan payments. Those pressures are driving cost-conscious shoppers to stock up now on holiday gifts.
Those competing forces “create a battle for consumer spending,” Nick Handrinos, vice chairman and leader of Deloitte LLP’s retail and consumer products practice, recently told CNBC.
Electronics, toys and games, personal care and cosmetics are among the categories shoppers plan to buy during this Prime Big Deal Days event, according to the latest weekly consumer insights poll conducted by CoreSight Research. (For more on Prime Day deals, check out NBC Select’s roundup of savings.)

So how good are the deals compared to prices at other times of the year? It depends on the category.
“Many of us expected [Tuesday] especially to be more impressive than it has been,” said Julie Ramhold, a consumer analyst at DealNews.com.
“While there are some good offers on Amazon devices and services, outside of those, it’s been somewhat lackluster,” she added.

Best days to buy on Amazon

CNBC analyzed daily pricing data provided by Jungle Scout, a platform providing tools to Amazon sellers, for 19 products from the most popular categories sold on Amazon.com by Amazon directly or the brand itself between September 2022 and September 2023.
CNBC found the best prices for electronics and toys is typically during Amazon’s summer Prime Day sale, compared to other major shopping events. But those still are not necessarily the best prices of the year.
For health and beauty products, shoppers will likely find the best prices during the Black Friday sales event. However, the fall Prime event might have better prices for home goods.
For the best prices, DealNews.com’s Ramhold recommends waiting until late October or November, when the discounts will be greater.
An Amazon spokeswoman said the company was unable to comment on the accuracy of CNBC’s findings without seeing the research. CNBC declined to provide that data in advance of publication.
All deals must meet the site’s bar for “quality savings,” the spokeswoman said. It must be the lowest price offered to customers in the past 30 days, among other criteria.
“Every deal in our store must offer trustworthy savings for customers as compared to verifiable reference prices, whether it’s a regular shopping day or during one of Amazon’s major deals events, such as Prime Big Deal Days, Prime Day, Black Friday or Cyber Monday,” she said.

Electronics

While the July Prime event had the deepest discounts for electronics when compared with other similar retail shopping sales events, for three of the four electronics tracked, the Prime sales events were not the best prices of the year.
In fact, the best prices happened on days that were not key shopping event days.

Only the Amazon Fire TV Stick 4K Max’s lowest price of the year coincided with one of the e-commerce shopping days outlined above. The media streaming device was listed for $54.99 throughout most of the year. During the July Prime sale, the product’s price dropped roughly 55% to $24.99.
iRobot’s Roomba 694, however, was the only product among the group that was cheaper on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, instead of the July Prime Days. In March, the robotic vacuum spiked to its highest price of $269. At its lowest, the Roomba was listed at $122.30.
During the period between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, shoppers could snag a Roomba 694 for $179. But that price wasn’t exclusive to the popular shopping weekend. In fact, the Roomba was listed at that price at several points throughout the year.
Pricing data for the Sony XB13 Extra Bass portable wireless speaker was unavailable for Black Friday and Cyber Monday so we don’t know for sure if the price would have been lower on those days. Regardless, the July Prime event offered a deeper discount to shoppers when compared to last year’s October Prime sale and Super Saturday. 

Health and beauty products

Some popular health and beauty products are likely to be on sale Tuesday and Wednesday. But if last year’s holiday discounts are any indicator, expect to see even more products on sale on Black Friday. 

The Revlon One-Step Volumizer Plus 2.0 hair dryer and hot air brush, for example, was only on sale for $29.09 three days last year, all of which were during the week of Black Friday. At its highest, the popular hair-styling tool was listed at $59.99. The product did go on sale during last October’s Prime member event and this past July’s Prime sale, but the discounts were not as deep.
Crest 3-D White Professional Effects teeth-whitening kit, Hero Cosmetics Mighty Patch Original acne patches and Philips Sonicare 4100 electric toothbrush also dropped to their lowest prices of the year last Black Friday. These products saw the same discounts during several other key shopping days, as well.
One product that’s nearly certain to be discounted steadily throughout the season is the Crest kit, which was marked down from its highest level of $48.99 to $29.99 during every single major shopping day.
The Philips Norelco Multigroomer All-in-One Trimmer Series 3000 didn’t reach it’s lowest price during last season’s Black Friday, but it came very close, costing only 40 cents more than its lowest price of the year of $17.56 on every shopping holiday except the July Prime event.

Home goods

When it comes to home products, consumers may consider filling up carts over the next two days and finalizing those purchases. Three out of the four products tracked by CNBC reported their lowest price of the year during last October’s Prime Member sale, including the Hilife Steamer, Keurig K-Mini Single Serve coffee maker and Ninja AF101 air fryer.

The Bissell Little Green Portable Cleaner 1400B was the only exception. The product was listed at $123.59 at its highest, and $70.31 at its lowest for the year. Throughout retail shopping events, the price fell to a low of $86 during the July Prime sale, and was not discounted at all during the October event. 

Toys

Somewhat surprisingly, all five products within the toys and games category analyzed by CNBC reported their lowest retail shopping event prices during July’s Prime sale, but the prices weren’t the lowest of the year. The CoComelon Deluxe Interactive JJ doll, Hot Wheels “Criss Cross Crash” track set and Squishmallows Kellytoy 8-inch Plush Mystery Pack all saw lower prices at other points throughout the year compared to their shopping holiday lows.

For shoppers buying toys during the holiday season, the pricing data might be disappointing. Only the SEREED Baby Balance Bike hit its lowest price of the year, dropping from its high of $49.99 to $39.99 on every retail shopping holiday except Super Saturday.
While the Squishmallows Mystery Pack was discounted from its high of $26.99 to $22.99 during every single retail shopping event from last October’s Prime sale through this past summer’s Prime Sale, the price ended up being lower in early July.

Are Prime shopping events losing their luster?

Several data points suggest these Prime Day sales events might be losing their luster with shoppers. Perhaps Amazon shoppers are starting to pick up on pricing patterns, or maybe big sale days just aren’t as exciting as they were a few years ago.
Amazon uses exclusive Prime Member shopping days to help drive new subscriptions for the membership service, but fewer people have access to Prime membership benefits in 2023. According to multiyear data from Coresight Research’s U.S. consumer surveys, those with access to Prime benefits have fallen below 75% for the first time since March 2018.
Like other subscription services and goods, prices for the Prime membership have steadily increased since the first Prime Day event was introduced, though features have been added. In 2015, a Prime membership was $99 a year, now it’s $139.
Downloads of Amazon’s shopping app have declined steadily during each subsequent Prime member shopping event since Amazon’s Prime Days in July 2021, according to data intelligence platform Apptopia, which tracks mobile app usage for brands like Amazon.
Declining downloads alone may not be a sign of interest waning among shoppers, but when combined with a drop-off in daily active users over the last two Prime shopping events, and a deceleration in the number of times users are interacting with the Amazon app during these events, it becomes more likely consumers are feeling Prime Day fatigue.

Further detail on pricing analysis methodology

The products that CNBC analyzed from Jungle Scout’s daily pricing data spanned four different key holiday shopping categories including electronics, health and beauty, home and toys and games. Many of the products appear regularly on Amazon’s top sellers list.
To narrow down the results, CNBC only included data for products sold by Amazon.com, Amazon Warehouse, which often includes items returned by prior buyers, and the brand manufacturers. Third-party marketplace sellers were not included.
In some instances, Jungle Scout was unable to retrieve pricing data on products for certain days, which could be a result of a variety of outcomes including the product being sold out or unavailable at the time the data was extracted.
— CNBC’s Jess Dickler contributed to this report.
Join CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on October 12th, where we’ll talk with top advisors, investors, market experts, technologists, and economists about what advisors can do now to position their clients for the best possible outcomes as we head into the last quarter of 2023, and face the unknown in 2024. Learn more and get your ticket today. More

To make college more accessible, Sonoma State University is offering “guaranteed admission” to high school students who have completed the requisite coursework and have a minimum 2.5 high school GPA.
Other schools have tried similar moves to get more students enrolled.
But not only are fewer students interested in pursuing a degree after high school, the population of college-age students is also shrinking.

Sonoma State University
Courtesy: Sonoma State University

To help make college a reality, Sonoma State University is trying a relatively new approach: High school students who have completed the requisite coursework and have a minimum 2.5 high school GPA are now “guaranteed admission” to the Rohnert Park, California-based school.
“We really wanted to provide a more visible pathway,” said Ed Mills, vice president for strategic enrollment at Sonoma State, a member of the California State University system.

Since the school began accepting applications on Oct. 1 for the fall 2024 term, there has been an uptick in interest. “Our applicant pool is already up about 5% from last year and I expect that increase to continue to rise,” Mills said.
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“Everybody wins in this scenario,” according to Robert Franek, The Princeton Review’s editor-in-chief and author of “The Best 389 Colleges.”
Guaranteed admission is catching on.
Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, Virginia, recently announced a guaranteed admission program for first-year freshman applicants who have a GPA of 3.5 or higher and are in the top 10% of their high school graduating class. 

Other schools and school systems have launched similar initiatives to get more students enrolled. Last spring, the State University of New York sent automatic acceptance letters to 125,000 graduating high school students.

Even if acceptance is not guaranteed, “there are so many schools that have reasonable admission standards and many of them are among the best schools in the country,” Franek said.
In fact, of The Princeton Review’s list of 389 best colleges, 254 schools admit at least half of all applicants. More than a quarter admit at least 80% of those who apply. (On the flip side, only 8% of schools on the list of best colleges admit less than 10% of applicants.)
“If you attain a certain level of academic competitiveness, you will earn admission and that’s very valuable,” Franek said.

College enrollment is dropping

Sonoma State University
Courtesy: Sonoma State University

Still, fewer students are going to college.
Nationwide, enrollment has noticeably lagged since the start of the pandemic, when a significant number of students decided against a four-year degree in favor of joining the workforce or completing a certificate program without the hefty price tag or Zoom screen.
However, a downturn in enrollment was in the works long before 2020.
“The enrollment crisis didn’t start with the pandemic, it accelerated with the pandemic,” Hafeez Lakhani, founder and president of Lakhani Coaching in New York, recently told CNBC. “This is the fuel on the fire.”
In fact, undergraduate enrollment in the U.S. topped out at roughly 18 million students over a decade ago, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.
Today, there are more than 2.5 million fewer students enrolled in college, Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, estimated.

Costs keep rising

Not only are fewer students interested in pursuing any sort of degree after high school, but the population of college-age students is also shrinking, a trend referred to as the “enrollment cliff.”
“There’s a broad-based drop in belief or trust in higher education as an institution,” said Cole Clark, a managing director within Deloitte’s higher education practice and co-author of a recent trends report. “It’s as much of a threat as the demographic cliff.”

These days, only about 62% of high school seniors in the U.S. immediately go on to college, down from 68% in 2010. Low-income students who feel priced out of a postsecondary education are often those who opt out.
Steadily, college is becoming a path for only those with the means to pay for it, other reports also show.
Would-be college students are looking more closely at the return on investment as tuition costs remain high and a shortage of workers increases opportunities in the labor force — with or without a diploma.

Arrows pointing outwards

More high schoolers want career training

Most Americans still agree a college education is worthwhile when it comes to career goals and advancement. However, only half think the economic benefits outweigh the costs, according to a report by Public Agenda, USA Today and Hidden Common Ground — and young adults are particularly skeptical.
The rising cost of college and ballooning student loan balances have played a large role in changing views about the higher education system, which many think is rigged to benefit the wealthy, the report found. 
Only 45% of students from low-income, first-generation or minority backgrounds believe education after high school is necessary, according to a study by ECMC Group.
High schoolers are putting more emphasis on career training and post-college employment, the nonprofit found after polling more than 5,000 high school students six times since February 2020.

More than 75% of high schoolers now say a two-year degree or technical certification is enough, and only 41% believe they must have a four-year degree to get a good job, a separate report by Junior Achievement and Citizens also found. 
“A lot of students are weighing their options,” said Connie Livingston, head of college counselors at college counseling firm Empowerly and a former admissions officer at Brown University.
“Does it make more sense to go to community college, trade school or directly into the workforce?” she said. “In this economic climate, that’s attractive.”

Earning a college degree is almost always worthwhile

And yet, earning a bachelor’s degree is almost always worthwhile, research shows.
Bachelor’s degree holders generally earn 75% more than those with a high school diploma, according to “The College Payoff,” a report from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce — and the higher the level of educational attainment, the larger the payoff.
But even while degrees deliver a strong premium in the job market, confidence in the higher education system is declining, according to Deloitte’s Clark.
“There is a lot of rhetoric about the individual with a college degree and a ton of debt and underemployed,” he said.
“You are going to continue to see this paradox,” Lakhani added. “There’s a subconscious consensus that it’s only worth going to college if you can go to a life-changing college.” 
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The U.S. Department of the Treasury proposed a rule on Friday that would make it easier for consumers to get a $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicles and a $4,000 credit for used EVs.
The proposal would allow all eligible buyers, regardless of federal tax liability, to get a full tax break.
It would be a point-of-sale purchase discount from car dealers starting in 2024.
Currently, those whose tax liability is too low may get a reduced credit or none at all.

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A new proposal by the U.S. Department of the Treasury would make it easier for consumers to get a tax credit when buying a new or used electric vehicle, according to tax and energy experts.
Its proposed rules, issued Friday, would let car dealers offer the EV tax break to consumers at the point of sale — regardless of their federal tax liability — starting Jan. 1, 2024.

What that means: All eligible EV buyers — and not just a subset of eligible, typically wealthier consumers — would get an upfront discount of up to $7,500 for new cars and $4,000 for used cars, experts said.
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“I think it is a real game-changer for all consumers to be able to get that rebate at the point of sale,” said Jamie Wickett, a partner at law firm Hogan Lovells which specializes in federal tax policy and energy. “Immediately, a $50,000 vehicle becomes $42,500.”

Big news for low- and middle-income drivers

Dealers were always supposed to offer point-of-sale discounts in 2024, as per text of the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the tax-liability issue was an open question.
As things stand, buyers only qualify for the full tax break if their federal tax liability is large enough. Otherwise, they may get a reduced credit or nothing at all. (That’s because the credit is “nonrefundable.”)

If the Treasury proposal is codified, it would expand the pool of consumers — especially lower earners, who generally have smaller tax liabilities — eligible for the full value of the EV tax credit.
“It’s great news, especially from an equity standpoint and for people who may not have as much disposable income,” said Ingrid Malmgren, policy director at nonprofit Plug In America. “It really will make [an EV purchase] more affordable for them.”

They would also be getting that tax break as an upfront discount. Right now, buyers must wait until they file their annual tax return to get the credit’s financial benefit — potentially a year or more after the purchase.
Consumers will get that point-of-sale discount by transferring their tax credit — the new clean vehicle credit ($7,500) or the used clean vehicle credit ($4,000) — to a car dealer. The car dealer can then pay the credit’s value back to the consumer. The IRS expects to issue payments back to the dealers within 72 hours, Treasury said.
Dealers must provide consumers with the full credit amount available for the vehicle, and provide written confirmation of the amount and vehicle eligibility, Treasury said. The payment doesn’t count toward a taxpayer’s gross income.
The agency’s proposal comes as it has gotten harder for many EV models to qualify for the full $7,500 credit (temporarily, at least) due to manufacturing requirements included in the Inflation Reduction Act.

Consumers must self-attest eligibility

There are a few caveats.
For one, the Treasury proposal is subject to a 60-day public comment period and may change in its final version, though experts don’t expect any substantial revisions.
In addition, not all dealers will necessarily participate. They must register via IRS Energy Credits Online, a new website. Wickett expects most dealers to do so, or otherwise risk being at a “real competitive disadvantage.”
Buyers also must file an income tax return for the year in which the vehicle transfer election is made.
It’s also important to note that car dealers won’t analyze consumers’ income to determine if they qualify for an EV credit, according to the Treasury proposal. Buyers must self-attest their eligibility — and making a mistake could mean paying back the credit’s full value to the IRS at tax time.

I think it is a real game changer for all consumers to be able to get that rebate at the point of sale.

Jamie Wickett
partner at law firm Hogan Lovells

They can self-attest their eligibility if they expect to be below the respective income thresholds in the year the vehicle is “placed in service,” Treasury said. They can also do so based on the prior year’s income.
“It’s probably best to know you qualified [based on income] last year or be very much assured that you qualify in the year you purchase your car,” Malmgren said.
These are the annual income limits for the $7,500 new vehicle credit: $300,000 for married couples filing a joint tax return; $225,000 for heads of household; and $150,000 for single tax filers.
These limits apply to the $4,000 used vehicle credit:  $150,000 for married couples filing a joint tax return; $112,500 for heads of household; and $75,000 for single tax filers.
These figures are based on “modified adjusted gross income.” More