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The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 will soon be announced.
Next year’s benefit increase is expected to be the smallest adjustment since 2021.

Tomml | E+ | Getty Images

Social Security beneficiaries will soon know the size of their annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2025.
They may be in for a disappointment because if current projections hold true, the increase to benefits could be the lowest since 2021.

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, could be 2.5% next year, Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, predicted last month.
With that change, the average retired workers’ benefit of $1,920 would rise by $48 per month, according to Johnson’s calculations.
The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the COLA for 2025 on Thursday.
In contrast, Social Security beneficiaries saw a 3.2% increase to benefits this year. In 2023 and 2022, beneficiaries saw the biggest boosts to benefits in four decades, with COLAs of 8.7% and 5.9%, respectively, in response to high inflation.

Even though the COLA for 2025 is expected to be smaller than previous years, many people are still feeling the residual pain of higher prices, said Joe Elsasser, a certified financial planner and president of Covisum, a Social Security claiming software company. This means their current income may not be enough to cover the cost of everyday goods and services despite a slight increase in benefits.

“It’s not like prices came back down,” Elsasser said. “It’s just that the rate of increase has slowed, and so that probably contributes to people’s feeling that inflation hasn’t slowed.”
The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, has also projected a 2.5% COLA for 2025. Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, also recently wrote that the latest available data points to a 2.5% benefit increase next year.
Social Security COLAs have averaged about 2.6% over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League.
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Could the Social Security COLA estimate change?

The current 2.5% estimate has about a 17% chance of increasing and a 13% chance of decreasing, according to Johnson’s calculations from last month.
The official Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will factor in one more month of government inflation data when it is announced. That data, the consumer price index, will also be released on Thursday.
The Social Security COLA is calculated based a subset of the consumer price index known as the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.

Third-quarter CPI-W data for last year is compared with the third quarter for the current year. The percentage increase from last year to this year determines the COLA.
While hurricanes can affect the calculations, Johnson said the effects of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in the evening on Sept. 26, likely happened too late to be factored into September’s data.
“I don’t think that’s going to affect my forecast,” Johnson said.
Although gas prices were down last month, it may not be enough of a decline to affect the COLA calculation, she said.

When will the 2025 COLA go into effect?

Social Security beneficiaries will see the adjustment for 2025 starting with their January checks.
But beneficiaries can see how their benefits are affected by the annual adjustment earlier, either by checking their online My Social Security account or via a mailed paper statement from the agency in December.

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As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, investors should review their bond portfolio, financial experts say.
Typically, bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite directions, which could boost certain parts of the bond market. 
Investors may consider corporate and municipal bonds while shifting to longer-duration assets.

Lucy Lambriex | Stone | Getty Images

As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, investors should review their bond portfolio, which could see a boost from dovish Fed policy.
The central bank in September kicked off its first easing campaign in four years with a 50 basis point rate cut, which brought its benchmark rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%.

After a better-than-expected jobs report last week, analysts predict future rate cuts could be smaller.
However, the Fed policy shift could be good for parts of the bond market, experts say. Typically, bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite directions. 
“This is a fantastic time to revisit bonds again,” said certified financial planner Scott Ward, senior vice president of Compound Planning in Birmingham, Alabama.
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In 2022 and 2023, the Fed enacted a series of rate hikes, which led to higher yields on savings, money market funds, certificates of deposit and other options.

While it may be tempting to cling to cash, it will become “less attractive, less productive as interest rates fall,” Ward said.
Long-term investors can now “get a lot more return from the safer side of the portfolio” with bonds, he said.
Here are some options to consider, according to financial advisors.

Corporate bonds

In a falling-rate environment, you may consider medium- to longer-term corporate bonds, according to Ted Jenkin, founder and CEO of oXYGen Financial in Atlanta.
During the third quarter of 2024, the Morningstar US Corporate Bond Index, which measures investment-grade corporate bonds, returned 5.8%, which was higher than the overall bond market at 5.2%.
Many corporations leveraged rock-bottom interest rates during the pandemic to strengthen balance sheets and refinance debt, said Ward.
“I think we’ll see corporations emerge from this rate hike cycle in pretty good shape,” he said.

Municipal bonds

As investors brace for possible higher future taxes, municipal bonds could become more appealing, particularly among residents in higher-income tax states.
Muni bond interest is federally tax-free and avoids state levies when you live in the issuing state. Typically, muni bonds have lower default risk than corporate bonds.

“Longer-term municipal bonds should fare better if the Fed continues to cut interest rates,” said Jenkin, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.
“Municipalities present a couple of excellent qualities for long-term investors,” including the potential for attractive yield combined with a lower risk profile, Ward said.

Advisors extend bond ‘duration’

When constructing a bond portfolio, advisors weigh duration, which measures a bond’s sensitivity to interest rate changes. Expressed in years, the duration formula includes the bond’s coupon, time to maturity and yield paid through the term.
Some advisors began increasing bond duration before the Fed’s first interest cut in September. 
Jenkin said his firm started shifting to “medium-term duration” bonds, which he defines as five to 10 years, roughly four months before the Fed’s first rate cut.  
As interest rates fall, those longer-maturity bonds should reward investors, experts say.

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Nearly one-third of consumers said paying for return shipping was more annoying than jury duty and going to the DMV, according to a recent report.
Here’s why those return fees may only get worse.

United Parcel Service (UPS) driver pushes a dolly of packages towards a delivery van on a street in New York.
Victor J. Blue | Bloomberg | Getty Images

As much as consumers love shopping online, most hate to shell out for shipping charges. Paying for return shipping is even worse.
These days, 77% of shoppers check the return policy before making a purchase, according to a September survey of 1,500 adults by GoDaddy. Nearly a third, 30%, of consumers said paying for return shipping was more annoying than jury duty and going to the Department of Motor Vehicles.

When it comes to winning over customers, return fees matter, other reports also show.
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Last year, retailers got more aggressive when it came to charging for returns, with an average extra fee just shy of $7, according to returns solution company Optoro.
However, 37% of shoppers said the most frustrating thing about making a return is paying the shipping charge, and 62% of shoppers said they won’t initially shop with a brand if they charge a return fee, Optoro found.
While restocking fees and shipping charges may help curb the amount of inventory that is sent back, “charging for returns will absolutely depress your sales,” said Amena Ali, Optoro’s CEO.

This is especially true as the peak holiday shopping season kicks into high gear.
“Businesses need to take a look at the ways they could be inadvertently turning customers away,” said Amy Jennette, GoDaddy’s trends expert.

Still, companies are doing what they can to keep returns in check.
Last year, 81% of U.S. retailers rolled out stricter return policies, including shortening the return window and charging a return or restocking fee, according to a report from return management company Happy Returns.
Others, including Amazon and Target, have simply told shoppers to “keep it,” offering a refund without a taking the product back.
“Retailers have no choice but to figure out how to manage costs,” Ali said.

Why returns are such a problem

The return rate in 2023 was about 15% of total U.S. retail sales, or $743 billion in returned goods. For online sales, the numbers of returns are even higher, with a return rate closer to 18%, or $247 billion of merchandise purchased online returned, according to the National Retail Federation’s most recent data.
With the explosion of online shopping during and since the pandemic, customers got increasingly comfortable with their buying and returning habits and more shoppers began ordering products they never intended to keep. Nearly two-thirds of consumers now buy multiple sizes or colors, some of which they then send back, a practice known as “bracketing,” according to Happy Returns.
But all of that back and forth comes at a hefty price.
In fact, processing a return costs retailers an average of 30% of an item’s original price, Optoro also found. But returns aren’t just an issue for retailers’ bottom line.

What happens to your returns

“Often returns do not end up back on the shelf,” and that also causes a problem for retailers struggling to enhance sustainability, according to Spencer Kieboom, founder and CEO of Pollen Returns, a return management company. 

Also referred to as reverse logistics, a return requires sending products backward through the supply chain to be repackaged, restocked and resold — sometimes overseas.
That reordered process is “like playing a tape in reverse,” said Optoro’s Ali.
It generates even more carbon emissions to get those items back in circulation, if they even make it that far. In some cases, returned goods are sent straight to landfills, while only 54% of all packaging is recycled, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Last year’s returns created 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste, according to Optoro.
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ETF Strategist

When it comes to stock investing, it can be difficult to beat an S&P 500 index fund.
Warren Buffett once won a decade-long bet that he could outperform hedge fund managers with a simple S&P 500 index fund.
Yet some experts warn you could be missing important opportunities to diversify if you pick the same strategy.

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway CEO and chairman.
Cnbc | Nbcuniversal | Getty Images

In 2007, Warren Buffett made a $1 million bet that he could outperform hedge fund managers over the course of a decade by investing in an S&P 500 index fund.
In 2017, he won.

Some individual investors are making similar bets on the S&P 500 with their money, whether it be through exchange-traded funds or mutual funds.
True to its name, the S&P 500 index includes 500 large U.S. companies. The index is market cap-weighted, with each listed company’s weighting based on the total value of all its outstanding shares. The index is rebalanced quarterly.

More from ETF Strategist

Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.

The three biggest ETFs track the S&P 500 index, according to Morningstar. They are the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which trades under the ticker SPY; iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, with ticker IVV; and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which trades as VOO. Together, those funds make up almost 17% of the U.S. ETF market, according to Morningstar.
In 2024, VOO has been the leader of those three funds in attracting new money, with $71 billion in net inflows over the first nine months, according to Morningstar, beating the record SPY set in 2023 by $20 billion.

Future index performance could be ‘muted’

The S&P 500 index has continued to make headlines for new all-time highs in 2024. Year to date, the index is up around 20% as of Oct. 8. Over the past 12 months, it has climbed 33%.

That performance has bested some experts’ predictions for the index heading into this year, owing in part to a stronger U.S. economy than had been anticipated.
“That elusive recession everybody was looking for never materialized,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James.
Now, the St. Petersburg, Florida-based firm is predicting a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Yet the run-up in stocks may not be as strong.
“I think you’re going to see more muted performance — still upward, but more muted,” Adam said.

Historically, from the start of October through Election Day, the market tends to be down, on average, by about 1.5% or so, he said.
“The reason for that is the market doesn’t like uncertainty,” Adam said.
The good news is the market tends to recoup those losses and move higher, he said.
Goldman Sachs just raised its S&P 500 index forecast for 2024 to 6,000 up from 5,600 to reflect expected earnings growth. Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research, also recently told CNBC he’s calling for a target of 6,000 for the S&P 500 by year-end.

S&P 500 ‘hard to beat in the long run’

Investing in the S&P 500 index is a popular strategy.
“There are reasons why it works so well that will never change,” said Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar.
Among the advantages: It’s low cost, it captures a large portion of the opportunities available to active managers and it’s “hard to beat in the long run,” he said.
“In general, I would say the S&P 500 is better, more well diversified than most investment strategies,” Armour said.
That can allow you to take a set-it-and-forget-it approach and avoid trying to time the market, he said.
However, there are definite risks that come with exclusively investing in an S&P 500 index fund on the equity side of a portfolio.
“The S&P 500 has been the absolute best thing [investors] could have been doing the past seven or eight years,” said Sean Williams, a certified financial planner and principal at Cadence Wealth Partners in Concord, North Carolina.
“There’s a lot of people who have that mentality of, ‘Why would I do anything differently?'” he said.
Generally, it is not a good idea to have everything in any one position, even if it is big U.S. companies that have done very well in the past decade, Williams said.
It always helps to have exposure to other areas, he said, such as international, small- and mid-cap companies, and real estate, for example.

Investing in an S&P 500 index strategy comes with concentration risk. For example, information technology comprises 31.7% of the index, with companies including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Broadcom.
To mitigate that risk, investors may consider moving to a total market portfolio like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, which trades under the ticker symbol VTI, which can provide less concentration at the top of the portfolio, Armour said.
Additionally, to get broader exposure, investors may also consider buying a small value ETF, an area that Morningstar analysts currently think is “pretty significantly undervalued,” Armour said. More

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading in New York City. 
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Stocks @ Night is a daily newsletter delivered after hours, giving you a first look at tomorrow and last look at today. Sign up for free to receive it directly in your inbox.
Here’s what CNBC TV’s producers were watching as stocks rebounded on Tuesday, and what’s on the radar for the next session.

Costco Wholesale

The members’ only store releases September sales on Wednesday around 4:15 p.m., Eastern time.
Costco shares are 3.6% off the Sept. 13 high, and they’re up 1.57% in a month.
So far in 2024, Costco is up about 35%.
On a year to date basis, the stock ranks 14th in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) out of 80 names.
I’m not saying these are apples-to-apples comparisons, but XRT constituents that also offer groceries — and are faring better than Costco in 2024 — include Sprouts Farmers Market, up about 140% year to date, and Walmart, up 51% year to date. Casey’s General Stores is up 38% year to date.
Jim Cramer holds Costco in his charitable trust, having last purchased shares in June 2020. The stock is up 205% since then. That’s more than double the S&P 500 in the same time period.

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Costco Wholesale in 2024

IPO in the U.S.A.

KinderCare goes public on Wednesday
The Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) is up 7.3% in the last month.
The IPO ETF is 3% from the high hit three weeks ago.

Boeing

The aerospace giant was the subject of another warning on Tuesday: S&P put Boeing on “creditwatch negative.”
The ratings agency says if Boeing’s machinists’ strike and the company’s problems continue, then it runs the risk of getting a junk rating. This would have consequences for Boeing’s bonds.
Shares are flat after hours.
The stock is 42% from the December 52-week high.

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Boeing shares in 2024

The airlines

While Boeing shares slump, many of the carriers are faring well over the past week.
American Airlines is up about 9.4% in a week. It’s still 26% from the March high.
United Airlines is up nearly 7% in a week.
Mesa Air is up 6% in a week. It is 36% from the July high.
JetBlue is up 4.6% in a week. It is 7.6% from the high hit early this month. But at about $7 a share, it is far from the $31 all-time high.
Southwest Airlines is up 2.6% in a week. The stock is 13% from the February high.
Spirit Airlines is down 17% in a week. Shares are 90% from the high they hit nearly a year ago.

The cruise lines

Hurricane Milton doesn’t seem to be affecting the cruise line stocks. Many of them have significant operations in Florida.
Norwegian Cruise Line was up 3.5% Tuesday. The stock is 4% from the March high.
Royal Caribbean was up 2%.
Carnival was up nearly 5% Tuesday, and it’s 4.4% from the December high. More

It’s crucial to understand how to file a homeowners insurance claim after a natural disaster.
Insured losses alone for Hurricane Helene are now estimated at over $6 billion.
Hurricane Milton weakened slightly on Tuesday, but analysts still anticipate it could be a “once-in-a-century” storm with the potential to generate record-breaking damage when it makes landfall along Florida’s west coast on Wednesday.
Here are three steps to take to file an insurance claim.

David Hester inspects damages of his house after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, on September 28, 2024. 
Chandan Khanna | Afp | Getty Images

It’s crucial to understand how to file a homeowners insurance claim after a natural disaster. 
Insured losses alone for Hurricane Helene are now estimated at more than $6 billion.

Meanwhile, analysts anticipate that Hurricane Milton could be a “once-in-a-century” storm with the potential to generate record-breaking damage when it makes landfall along Florida’s west coast on Wednesday.
Once you’re safely out of harm’s way, starting the insurance claim process is an important consideration. The sooner you report a claim, the sooner your insurance company can start the process and you can begin rebuilding, experts say. 
“Your adjuster is assigned on a first-come, first-serve basis,” said Shannon Martin, a licensed insurance agent and analyst for Bankrate.com. 
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The processing arm of your insurance company is going to have a “tremendous amount of paperwork and claims coming through,” said Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street Foundation, an organization focused on climate risk financial modeling in New York City. 

“The longer you wait, you’re not only delaying the ability to have your claim approved and make its way to you, but you’re lengthening the time in which that claim will sit in the processing pipeline,” Porter said.
Here are three important steps to quickly file an insurance claim after a disaster, according to experts.

1. Call your insurer as soon as you can

Experts recommend including copies of your insurance policies and contact numbers in a disaster preparedness kit, that goes with you if you evacuate and is securely stored, otherwise.
Once a disaster has passed, immediately contact your insurance company to let them know that your home has damage from a recent disaster and you’d like to start the claims process, said Porter. 
If you evacuated, “you can start the claim from anywhere,” Porter said. “You’ll eventually have to schedule with the insurance company to actually review and inspect the damage.” 
But if you decide to wait out the storm in your house, you need to first prevent further damage to the home before calling, said Bankrate.com’s Martin.
A typical home insurance policy has language requiring homeowners to lessen the impact and prevent further damage, she said. 
“Then you can call the insurance company, take pictures of the damage and [move] items into safer locations,” Martin said.

2. Make a log of damages

During your call, provide your insurance company with some initial details, like if your roof blew off or several windows broke, said Porter. 
“But they really won’t make their assessment until they come in and inspect the damage,” he said. 
While the insurer will make its own inspection, it’s always important to document your damages, including taking pictures, so that you can align that with the formal inspection record that comes out from the insurance company, Porter said. 
This way, you can dispute any claims if you have to later, he said. 

3. Keep a record of receipts

In the event of a loss, you have to give prompt notice to your insurer and you have a duty to protect the property, said Daniel Schwarcz, an insurance law professor at the University of Minnesota Law School. 
You have to protect the property from further damage after the storm, make reasonable repairs and have an accurate record of repair expenses, Schwarcz said. 
The receipts that you need to keep on file are for purchased materials used to prevent further damage on the property that’s already been damaged by a covered peril, said Schwarcz — meaning wind and trees, but not generally flooding unless you have a flood insurance policy. The insurer will generally reimburse you for reasonable expenses you incur. 
If you don’t take such measures after the storm, and that inaction results in further damage, the insurer is not obligated to cover the loss, he said.

Materials purchased to protect the home before the natural disaster — for example, plywood to cover windows — are oftentimes not covered. 
You also want to keep a record of receipts when you start working with contractors to rebuild from the damage, experts say. 

Differentiating damage from back-to-back disasters 

One of the reasons why you want to document the damage immediately with your insurer is so that you can attach it to the event itself, increasing the likelihood of the event being covered by your home insurance, said Porter. 
“Filing the claim immediately is the number one most important thing to do,” Porter said.
It’s important to keep track of where the damage came from, and having evidence can help avoid problems down the road, he said.
Port offers the hypothetical of of someone whose home sustained wind damage from Hurricane Debbie or Helene, but hasn’t filed a claim before the Milton makes landfall and causes flood damage. 
“All of a sudden, you have a problem where the National Flood Insurance Program, which covers flood, and your home insurance company, which covers wind, can potentially start to argue over what actually caused the damage to the property,” Porter said.
You want to make sure you file any claim within three to five days of when the incident occurred, said Martin. As long as you had submitted all of your information in a timely manner for the first incident, if something else arises, you’re able to show the adjuster that it happened from a second event, she said. More

Molten copper pours into ceramic molds to form plates at the Southern Copper Corp. smelter facility in Ilo, Peru, on Jan. 30, 2017.
Dado Galdieri | Bloomberg | Getty Images

After years of political unrest in Peru, the relative calm of recent months has made international investors increasing their appetite for the country’s sovereign bonds.
Foreign investors now hold 39% of Peru’s sovereign bond market holdings, the highest level across all emerging market countries. This underscores the increasingly positive sentiment surrounding the Peru’s fixed income outlook. Moody’s currently has a moderately stable Baa1 credit rating on Peruvian bonds.

This comes after years of political unrest made investors wary of the Latin American nation. Lawmakers earlier this year called for President Dina Boluarte’s resignation amid allegations of illicit enrichment. Calls of an impeachment have currently faded and Boluarte and Congress are now at an impasse.
But now “Peru is a bit ahead of the game,” said Pramol Dhawan, Pimco head of emerging markets portfolio management. “It has recognized the need to provide international investors positive returns on domestic assets, and for central banks to be aligned with international investors and provide positive returns on domestic assets.”
Fixed income backdrop
Some of the Peruvian economy’s standout characteristics are its low debt-to-GDP ratio, which is among the lowest within its Latin American peers, and its stable currency, the Sol. According to the International Monetary Fund, Peru’s debt equates to 33% of its GDP. That’s well below Brazil’s 86.7% and lower than Chile’s 40.5%.
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru also lowered interest rates at its September meeting to 5.25%, the lowest level across Latin America. Peru also holds the steepest yield curve across global and emerging markets, Dhawan highlighted — a stark contrast to the inverted yield curves in the U.S. and many other countries. 
“The real yields are high and the curve is steep; and as the [Fed] rate cut cycle continues, there is still a lot of potential upside for duration for local Peruvian bonds,” said David Austerweil, deputy portfolio manager for the emerging markets fixed income strategy at VanEck.

A 2-year Soberano, the country’s local currency bond, is currently yielding 4.661% and the yield on the 10-year Soberano was last at 6.428%. Bank of America is long on Soberanos, the local-currency government bonds.
Ironically, Peru’s political dysfunction — which has put its Congress at a gridlock and unable to pass meaningful legislation — likely has strengthened Peru’s fiscal health. 
“In some sense, the lack of a strong executive has led to better fixed income outcomes,” Austerweil added.
Dhawan also underscored that Peruvian fixed income is a high quality market for foreign investors. Dhawan noted that the political turmoil is not detracting from the country’s debt market outlook. The fixed income backdrop is helped by the relative stability of the Peruvian central bank. 
“Peru has created an ecosystem which is largely conducive for international investment,” said Dhawan. “The central bank has been viewed as  the grown up in the room … It’s now validating what we think it should be doing, which is normalizing policy in-line with their domestic conditions.”
What about the stock market?
The Peruvian equity backdrop is less clear. The MSCI Peru Index has rallied 24.8% in 2024 and 55.8% over the last 12 months. That makes it an outperformer against the MSCI Emerging Markets and World indexes, which are up just 15.2% and 16.7% each on a year-to-date basis, and around 23% and 30% in the past 12 months, respectively. 
“Whilst the commodity bonus has helped Peru in the short-term, it is hard to see a good longer-term equity story without a proper functioning political system,” Dhawan said. 
Mining companies are among the largest market-cap stocks in Peru, making the stock market highly exposed to cyclical factors. Peru is one of the world’s largest producers of metals such as copper, silver, and zinc.
Notably, copper prices have surged 24.5% year to date — and commodities prices are expected to climb higher with the recent China stimulus measures raising hopes for a rebound in economic activity. However, the commodities sector remains highly volatile and subject to external conditions, complicating the equity environment. 
“Absent a big commodity supercycle, which is not our base case, it’s hard to see sort of sustainable growth, outperformance versus trend without being more conducive,” said Dhawan.

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Revolving debt, which mostly includes credit card balances, fell 1.2% in August, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest consumer credit report.
Although credit card spending growth is slowing, it may be too soon to tell if August’s contraction reflects a real shift in consumer behavior.

In the last year, credit card debt spiked to a record $1.14 trillion. But recent signs show consumers may now be pulling back.
Revolving debt, which mostly includes credit card balances, fell 1.2% in August, compared to a year earlier, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.19 consumer credit report released on Monday. Nonrevolving debt, such as auto loans and student loans, rose 3.3%.

After a prolonged period of high inflation and sky-high interest rates rates, spending habits are adjusting, according to Ted Rossman, Bankrate’s senior industry analyst. “Consumers have been in a pretty frugal mood lately,” he said.

This could be ‘just a blip’

However, it may be too soon to say whether August’s contraction reflects a real shift in consumer behavior, said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst. “It is far more likely that is just a blip.”
Even though spending has moderated this year, “it isn’t a huge decrease and I don’t think there’s really any reason to think that this is the beginning of a trend,” he added.
“it will be very interesting to see what the NY Fed debt data says when it is released next month,” Schulz said. “I expect it to show that debts are continuing to climb. I’d be very surprised if it didn’t.”
Heading into the peak holiday shopping season, lower rates and cooling inflation may encourage more spending in the months ahead, the National Retail Federation’s most recent analysis of retail sales also shows. 
“Easing inflation is providing added spending capacity to cost-weary shoppers, and the interest rate cuts expected to come from the Fed should help create a more positive environment for consumers in the future,” Jack Kleinhenz, the NRF’s chief economist said in a statement.
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