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    It’s not a great fall housing market, but this is ‘as good as it gets,’ economist says

    Lower mortgage rates make monthly mortgage payments more affordable. In some places, cheaper than rent, per a Zillow analysis.
    While housing overall continues to be expensive and unaffordable for most buyers, “this is as good as it gets,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow.
    Here’s what other experts say.

    Fstop123 | E+ | Getty Images

    While housing affordability remains a challenge for many buyers in the U.S., conditions are somewhat improving due to lower mortgage rates.
    Buyers need to earn $115,000 to afford the typical home in the U.S., according to a new report by Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm. That’s down 1% from a year ago, and represents the first decline since 2020.

    Housing payments posted the biggest decline in four years, Redfin also found. The median mortgage payment was $2,534 during the four weeks ending Sept. 15, down 2.7% from a year ago.
    Both declines stem from lower mortgage rates, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.
    As of Sept. 19, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.09%, down from 6.20% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Fed. Rates peaked this year at 7.22% on May 2.
    “The only reason mortgage payments are down is because of the rate effect,” Fairweather said.
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    Challenges remain: The typical household earns 27% less than what they need to afford a home, about $84,000 a year, per Redfin data. Home prices are still high, too. The median asking price for newly listed homes for sale is $398,475, up 5.4% from a year ago, Redfin found.
    While housing overall continues to be unaffordable for most buyers, “this is as good as it gets,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow, as the market is generally seeing lower mortgage rates, more inventory and low buyer competition.
    Here’s what buyers can expect in the coming months.

    ‘Mortgage rates will go by the way of the economy’

    Lower home loan rates provide “a great opportunity for buyers who have been waiting,” Divounguy said.
    Just because the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, it doesn’t “necessarily guarantee mortgage rates will continue to fall,” he said.
    While mortgage rates are partly influenced by the Fed’s policy, they are also tied to Treasury yields and other economic data.
    “Mortgage rates will go by the way of the economy,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage in New York.
    “If the economy shows signs of weakening … rates will come down,” Cohn said. “If we see the opposite, and that the economy is chugging along and employment gets stronger, it’s quite possible that rates will go up.”

    More homes are coming on the market

    On top of lower mortgage rates, a higher inventory of homes for sale makes the housing market more favorable for buyers, said Divounguy.
    There were 1,350,000 homes for sale by the end of August, up 0.7% from a month prior, according to the National Association of Realtors. That inventory level was up 22.7% compared with August 2023.

    Meanwhile, homebuilder confidence in the market for newly built single family homes improved in September, according to the National Association of Home Builders, or NAHB. Its survey also shows that the share of builders cutting prices in September was 32%, down one point. It’s the first decline since April, according to NAHB.
    “That tells me that some builders are probably starting to see some increase in foot traffic,” said Divounguy, and that the market could get competitive again.
    Price growth will depend on the level of existing home inventory, said Robert Dietz, chief economist at NAHB.
    “Existing home inventory is expected to rise as the mortgage rate lock-in effect diminishes, placing some downward pressure on prices as well,” Dietz said.

    Wait and ‘you’re trading one difficulty for another’

    The housing market is not going to get generally worse over the next 12 months, said Fairweather. If house hunters are discouraged because they haven’t found a home, they might have a better chance next year when there are more listings, Fairweather said.
    But they risk higher competition, she warned.
    “You’re trading one difficulty for another difficulty,” Fairweather said.
    If mortgage rates further decline next year, the number of homes for sale might grow. Most homeowners are sitting on loans with record-low mortgage rates, creating a so-called “lock-in effect,” or “golden handcuff” effect, where they don’t want to sell and finance a new home at a higher rate.
    “We’ll probably see more people who are buying, or selling to buy again,” said Fairweather, because high borrowing costs held them back. More

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    49% of workers think they can meet their retirement goals — 35% say they will need over $1 million to retire comfortably

    More than one-third of workers believe they will need more than $1 million to retire comfortably, according to a recent Bankrate report.
    And yet, 4 in 10 workers are behind on retirement planning and savings, largely due to debt, insufficient income or getting a late start, according to a separate CNBC survey.
    The good news is that workers can still catch up, says Bankrate’s senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick.

    By some measures, retirement savers, overall, are doing well.
    As of the second quarter of 2024, 401(k) and individual retirement account balances notched the third-highest averages on record, helped by better savings behaviors and positive market conditions, according to the latest data from Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) savings plans.

    The number of 401(k) millionaires also hit a new all-time high.
    The average 401(k) contribution rate, including employer and employee contributions, now stands at 14.2%, just below Fidelity’s suggested savings rate of 15%.

    Yet there is still a gap between what savers are putting away and what they think they should have once they stop working.
    Overall, 35% of Americans believe they will need more than $1 million to retire and live comfortably, according to a new report by Bankrate.com. Another 10% think they need $750,001 to $1 million.
    Although most workers have a specific retirement goal in mind, only 49% believe it is likely they will be able to meet their target and 48% say it is unlikely they will save the amount they need, the report also found. Bankrate polled 2,445 adults in mid-August. 

    40% of workers are behind on retirement planning

    In fact, 40% say they are behind on retirement planning and savings, largely due to debt, insufficient income or getting a late start, according to a recent CNBC survey, which polled more than 6,600 U.S. adults in early August.
    Older generations closer to retirement age are more likely to regret not saving for retirement early enough, the CNBC survey found. More than a third (37%) of baby boomers between ages 60 and 78 said they felt behind, compared with 26% of Gen Xers, 13% of millennials, and only 5% of Gen Zers over the age of 18.
    “There are so many individuals, young, mid-career and deep into their career, that are not saving enough for a healthy and secure retirement,” Jacqueline Reeves, the director of retirement plan services at Bryn Mawr Capital Management, recently told CNBC.
    More than any other money misstep, not saving for retirement early enough is the biggest financial regret for 22% of Americans, according to another recent report by Bankrate. 
    “If you do less at 30, you’ll still have more at 60 than if you did more at 50,” Reeves said.

    The retirement savings gap

    Other reports show that a retirement savings shortfall is weighing heavily on Americans, especially as they approach retirement age.
    An August LiveCareer survey found that 82% of workers have considered delaying their retirement due to financial reasons, while 92% fear they may need to work longer than originally planned. 
    Roughly half of Americans worry that they’ll run out of money when they’re no longer earning a paycheck — and 70% of retirees wish they had started saving earlier, according to another study by Pew Charitable Trusts from January.
    Among middle-class households, only 1 in 5 are very confident they will be able to fully retire with a comfortable lifestyle, according to a recent Retirement Outlook of the American Middle Class report by Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, which broadly defined the middle class as those with an annual household income between $50,000 and $199,999.
    “America’s middle class is navigating the turbulent post-pandemic economy and high rates of inflation,” said Catherine Collinson, CEO and president of Transamerica Institute. “They are focused on their health and financial well-being, but many are at risk of not achieving a financially secure retirement.”

    How to overcome a savings shortfall

    Many of the workers who feel behind on their savings are still years, if not decades, away from retirement, explained Bankrate’s senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick.
    “Those who strive to prioritize retirement savings, as they should, have reason to believe they can achieve their goal,” Hamrick said. “It takes information, focus and hard work, but the good news is that it can be done.”
    In addition to making automatic contributions into a retirement savings plan, experts often recommend opting in to an auto-escalation feature, if your company offers it, which will automatically boost your savings rate by 1% or 2% each year up to a set cap.
    Savers closer to retirement can even turbocharge their nest egg.
    Currently, “catch-up contributions” allow savers 50 and older to funnel an extra $7,500 into 401(k) plans and other retirement plans for 2024, beyond this year’s $23,000 employee deferral limit. The catch-up contributions for IRAs is an additional $1,000 on top of the $7,000 limit for 2024.
    Most experts also recommend meeting with a financial advisor to shore up a long-term plan. There’s also free help available through the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.  
    Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube. More

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    Wednesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session

    A trader works on the trading floor at The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) following the Federal Reserve rate announcement, in New York City, U.S., September 18, 2024. 
    Andrew Kelly | Reuters

    Stocks @ Night is a daily newsletter delivered after hours, giving you a first look at tomorrow and last look at today. Sign up for free to receive it directly in your inbox.
    Here’s what CNBC TV’s producers were watching as the Dow and S&P 500 posted fresh records Tuesday, and what’s on the radar for the next session.

    The staples

    CNBC TV’s Dominic Chu reports on consumer staples in Wednesday’s edition of “Sectornomics.”
    Consumer staples are right in the middle, ranked in sixth place among the 11 S&P sectors. In 2024, it’s up about 16%.
    Walmart is the top performing stock in the sector, up 53% this year.
    Kellanova ranks second, up 44% in 2024.
    Costco is third, up 36.6% year to date.
    At the bottom: Walgreens, Dollar Tree and Lamb Weston. Each of those names have been hit pretty hard this year. Lamb Weston is down 40% in 2024, while Dollar Tree is off about 50%. Walgreens is down 67% year to date.

    Stock chart icon

    Lamb Weston’s performance in 2024

    China

    Copper

    It is up 12.5% in the last six weeks.
    Copper’s movements sometimes follow China as that country is generally seen as a big buyer of the commodity.
    Newmont is now at a 27-month high after jumping 2.5% Tuesday. It is up 31% in three months.

    Stock chart icon

    Newmont shares performance over the past three months

    Micron earnings are due after the bell

    CNBC TV’s Seema Mody is covering the company Wednesday.
    Micron Technology is down 32% in the past three months.
    The stock is 40% from the June 18 high.
    However, shares are up 36.5% in the last year. More

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    Meet the Latin American e-commerce platform that’s outperforming Amazon this year

    MercadoLibre, the Argentinian e-commerce and payments company, is up 34% for the year, compared to a roughly 27% rise for Amazon.
    It was founded in 1999 by its current CEO Marcos Galperin and dominates online sales in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile and other Latin American countries.
    “When you look at the penetration of e-commerce in Latin America, it’s still quite low compared to the U.S., Europe or Asia,” says Galperin. “It’s an enormous opportunity.”

    One of the world’s largest e-commerce companies is emerging as a top pick on Wall Street as investors look for tech opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven.
    MercadoLibre, an Argentinian e-commerce and payments platform that’s incorporated in Delaware and actively traded on Nasdaq, is up 34% in 2024, compared to a roughly 27% rise for Amazon, and 20% for the S&P 500. The company was founded 25 years ago by CEO Marcos Gaplerin at the height of the dot com boom. It now dominates online sales in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile and makes up roughly half of online sales in South America, according to eMarketer. It also operates a digital payments platform called Mercado Pago.

    Roughly 90% of Wall Street analysts who cover the stock rate it a “buy,” with an average price target of $2,268 — about 8% upside from where it was trading this week, according to FactSet. There are no sell ratings.
    Brad Gerstner of Altimeter Capital is one such bull. He highlighted expanding profit margins and MercadoLibre’s AI potential as reasons he’s “excited” by the stock.
    “You look at companies like MercadoLibre … a lot of companies that people have kind of forgotten about as [investors] moved in to the Magnificent Seven — I think there are going to be a lot of internet companies that are benefited by AI,” Gerstner told CNBC’s Scott Wapner at the Goldman Sachs Communicopia conference this month. “It’s not only margin expansion, but reacceleration at the top, where they can acquire customers, improve products in a way that make it easier for customers to buy, and take friction out of the system.”
    Silicon Valley to Buenos Aires
    Galperin came up for the idea of MercadoLibre while he was a student at Stanford Graduate School of Business in Palo Alto, California. He started to look for seed funding at a time when few investors were committing capital outside California.
    “There was no venture capital for Latin America. Actually, there was little venture capital for anything outside of Silicon Valley. Even if you were an entrepreneur based in New York, the investors were all on Sand Hill Road,” Galperin told CNBC, referring to the Wall Street of the West Coast. “I don’t think they really cared about exploring other parts of the world.”

    That investor mindset has changed. Last year, venture-backed companies in Latin America raised $3.3 billion across nearly 1,000 deals, according to PitchBook. At the peak in 2021, the region brought in $16.3 billion.

    But back in the late 1990s, Galperin pitched a private equity investor who happened to be lecturing at Stanford, and framed the lack of infrastructure and competition in Latin America as an opportunity.
    “In Latin America, there was no existing infrastructure. You couldn’t do online payments. There was no efficient logistics for peer-to-peer commerce, we had to build that all ourselves,” Galperin said. “That made it harder at the beginning — but for us today, it’s great.”
    While MercaroLibre is sometimes referred to as the “Amazon of South America,” Galperin built the company at a time when eBay dominated online commerce. Amazon, at the time, was still more of an online book store. In fact, MercadoLibre partnered with eBay, which bought 20% of the company in 2001, and sold the stake in 2016.
    “We learned a lot from that relationship, and then eventually we started pivoting away from auctions,” Galperin said. “Today, I think we are much closer to what Amazon is.”
    Amazon is starting to see opportunity in South America, too. The dominant North American e-commerce platform has expanded into Mexico. “We’ve been competing since we started — it’s something that will continue for many years,” Galperin said.
    Competitive tailwinds
    He pointed to tailwinds that may help MercadoLibre withstand competition. E-commerce and online payments are steadily growing, and Latin America has a young, mobile-savvy population of more than 600 million people. MercadoLibre grew revenue 42% in the second quarter, and 112% on a currency-neutral basis. Its operating profit margin expanded to 14.3%.
    “When you look at the penetration of e-commerce in Latin America, it’s still quite low compared to the U.S., Europe or Asia,” Galperin told CNBC. “Roughly half of the population is unbanked or underbanked. It’s an enormous opportunity for us to distribute financial products to all these people that historically have been excluded.” More

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    The tax extension deadline is Oct. 15. Here’s what to do if you still can’t pay your balance

    The tax extension deadline is Oct. 15, but you have options if you still can’t pay your balance, experts say.
    You can apply for an IRS payment plan, or “installment agreement,” to pay your taxes owed over time.
    You will still incur interest and late-payment penalties, but an installment agreement could reduce the failure-to-pay penalty.

    Woman at home looking at the bills and taxes. 
    Hirurg | E+ | Getty Images

    The tax extension deadline is Oct. 15, but you have options if you still can’t pay your balance, experts say.
    This year, the federal tax deadline was April 15. Those struggling to meet that due date could submit Form 4868 for a six-month extension to file.

    But while the tax extension provided more time to file, 2023 taxes were due April 15. In the meantime, unpaid taxes continue to accrue IRS penalties and interest.     
    “That’s a surprise to a lot of people,” said Josh Youngblood, an enrolled agent and owner of The Youngblood Group, a Dallas-based tax firm. 
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    If you missed the tax deadline, the late payment penalty is 0.5% of your unpaid balance per month or partial month, capped at 25%. You will also incur interest on unpaid taxes.
    By comparison, the failure-to-file penalty is 5% of unpaid taxes per month or partial month, up to 25%.

    However, some taxpayers in disaster areas receive both an automatic extension to file and more time to pay.

    File your return even if you can’t pay

    The IRS has options if you can’t pay your taxes, “but you have to be current on your filing requirement,” said Tom O’Saben, an enrolled agent and director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.
    After filing, there are “various payment options” online, and many filers will receive an immediate acceptance or rejection of payment plan requests without calling, according to the IRS.
    “If you owe less than $50,000, establishing a payment plan with the IRS is almost going to be automatic,” O’Saben said.

    IRS online payment plans, or “installment agreements,” include:

    Short-term payment plan: This may be an option if you owe less than $100,000, including tax, penalties and interest. You have up to 180 days to pay in full.

    Long-term payment plan: This may be available if your balance is less than $50,000, including tax, penalties and interest. You must pay monthly, and you have up to 72 months to pay off the balance.

    Although the late-payment penalty and interest will continue to accrue, an IRS payment plan could cut your late-payment fee in half while the agreement is in effect, according to the IRS.
    One downside of IRS payment plans is future tax refunds could be used to offset your unpaid balance, O’Saben said.

    ‘Don’t ignore it’

    If you have unpaid taxes, you can expect notices from the IRS, and communication with the agency is key, experts say.
    “Don’t ignore it because it won’t go away,” Youngblood said. “I’ve had clients come in, and they have a whole pile of unopened IRS letters.” 
    “The IRS is not as bad as they think,” he added. “They actually want to work with people.”

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    ‘Childless cat lady’ is a more common lifestyle choice. Here’s what being child-free means for your money

    Nearly a quarter of millennials and Gen Zers without children do not plan to become parents, according to a recent report.
    Being a SINK (single income, no kids), DINK (dual income, no kids) or DINKY (dual income, no kids yet) also comes with certain financial considerations that differ from the standard financial plan.

    In this photo illustration a man looks at the post by Taylor Swift endorsing Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris on the online social media and social networking site Instagram displayed on a smart phone on September 12, 2024 in Bath, England. 
    Matt Cardy | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    The stigma of the “childless cat lady” persists, but these days, more young adults are embracing that label and opting out of parenthood — and benefitting, at least monetarily.
    Nearly a quarter, or 23%, of millennials and Generation Zers without children do not plan on having children, primarily due to financial reasons, according to a recent consumer spending and saving index by MassMutual.

    A preference for financial freedom and the inability to afford children are equally cited by 43% of younger generations, MassMutual found. The survey polled 1,000 adults in July.
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    To be sure, money is a major reason some young adults are choosing not to have kids.
    But also, over decades, attitudes about marriage and parenthood have changed.
    Since the 1970s, the overall share of married adults has declined and fewer couples are having children, according to a 2023 report from Pew Research Center. Last year, the U.S. fertility rate reached a historic low.

    Now, adults without children, both married and unmarried, are better off than than their peers with kids, in terms of median wealth and retirement savings, a separate Pew Research Center study found in May.
    The majority of adults without children said not having kids has made it easier for them to afford the things they want and be successful in their job or career, Pew also found.
    Although there is a financial benefit, “it’s not like you are child-free and checks fall out of the sky,” said Jay Zigmont, author of “The Childfree Guide to Life and Money.”

    Financial considerations for SINKs and DINKs

    In many cases, being a SINK (single income, no kids), DINK (dual income, no kids) or DINKY (dual income, no kids yet) does come with certain financial planning considerations that differ from the standard strategy.
    “Nearly all financial planning assumes you do or will have kids,” said Zigmont, who is a certified financial planner and founder of planning firm Childfree Wealth. But child-free couples often have different goals when it comes to building up a cash cushion, estate planning and long-term care.
    For example, “most child-free folks don’t make passing money down to the next generation a priority,” said Zigmont, who plans to leave his own nephews only a modest inheritance — “if they get $1 million, I’ve made a mistake.”

    Often Zigmont advises clients to spend down their savings, rather than build it up, which could open the door to pursuing a passion project or continuing education later in life.
    And while technically not part of the “sandwich generation,” child-free adults may also bear the brunt of caregiving responsibilities for aging parents or relatives, making it even more important to take into account long-term care for their parents and themselves, “which is stupidly expensive,” Zigmont said. “That’s half a million dollars you need a plan for.”
    Then, consider “how much money do I have to spend to bring down my net worth,” he said. “It’s backwards from the way we are trained.”

    Parenthood is now an election issue

    Decisions around parenthood are not just about personal finance, said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School.
    Since having, or not having, children also impacts employment, wages and wealth, it is “really an economic growth and productivity issue as well,” House said — and that affects all Americans, making it “one of the most important issues for policy makers and for businesses,” House said.
    Heading into a U.S. presidential election, parenthood has already become a point of contention on the campaign trail after Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the running mate of former President Donald Trump, accused key Democrats — including Vice President Kamala Harris — of being miserable “childless cat ladies.”
    In July, Vance said on The Megyn Kelly Show on SiriusXM that his remarks were “not about criticizing people who for various reasons don’t have kids,” but rather “criticizing the Democratic party for becoming anti-family and anti-child.”
    When Taylor Swift announced her endorsement of Harris in an Instagram post that featured a photo of herself with a cat, she signed the post with her full name and “Childless Cat Lady.”
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    Only 33% of millionaires consider themselves wealthy, report finds. Why it’s so hard to feel rich

    Despite a wealth boom, few Americans — even millionaires — feel confident about their financial standing.
    In many cases, credit card debt is standing in the way of building wealth.
    “High interest rate credit card debt, more than other sorts of debt, is a savings killer, because when you have it, you have to feed the beast. You can’t save, you can’t invest,” said Jean Chatzky, CEO of HerMoney.com.

    The U.S. has experienced an unprecedented wealth boom. Yet, few Americans — including millionaires— feel confident about their financial standing.
    Only 12% of Americans consider themselves wealthy, according to a new report by Edelman Financial Engines.

    Despite their high net worth, just 33% of millionaires said the same, the report found. Edelman Financial Engines polled more than 3,000 adults over age 30 from June 12 to July 3, including 1,500 affluent Americans with household assets between $500,000 and $3 million.
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    To be sure, the rich are getting richer. The total net worth of the top 1%, defined as those with wealth over $11 million, increased by nearly $2 trillion to hit a record $46.2 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, according to data from the Federal Reserve, largely boosted by gains from their stock holdings.
    But beginning in 2020 with the Covid-19 pandemic run-up in housing prices, wealth creation has been largely concentrated among homeowners, the Fed’s survey of consumer finances also shows.
    “Homeownership doesn’t feel like wealth,” said Jean Chatzky, personal finance expert and CEO of HerMoney.com, who worked with Edelman Financial Engines on the report. “Homes are an asset that we use every day, it’s not like the balance in your retirement account or your savings account.”

    At the same time, a prolonged period of high inflation also made practically everything more expensive and left less breathing room in household budgets.

    Higher prices put households under pressure

    The consumer price index, a key inflation measure that tracks average prices across a broad basket of consumer goods and services, increased 2.5% in August relative to a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s down from a pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
    Even though inflation is now cooling, in most cases price increases are only slowing — not falling outright. To help make ends meet, data indicates, more people are relying on credit cards to cover day-to-day expenses.

    Credit card debt is the biggest threat to building wealth

    Americans now owe a record $1.14 trillion on their credit cards, and the average balance per consumer stands at $6,329, up 4.8% year over year, according to the New York Fed and TransUnion, respectively.

    More borrowers are carrying debt from month to month, and a growing number are falling behind on their monthly credit card payments. Over the last year, roughly 9.1% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed reported for the second quarter of 2024.
    Nearly half, 44%, of Americans said credit card debt is the biggest threat to their ability to build wealth, according to Edelman Financial Engines.
    “Debt is, and has always been, a savings killer,” Chatzky said. “High interest rate credit card debt, more than other sorts of debt, is a savings killer, because when you have it, you have to feed the beast. You can’t save, you can’t invest.”
    “That stands in the way of people building actual wealth and therefore feeling wealthier,” she said.

    How much money it would take to feel wealthy

    Most people — roughly 65% of those polled — said they would need $1 million in the bank to consider themselves wealthy, although 28% said it would take at least $2 million and 19% put the bar at $5 million or more, Edelman Financial Engines found. Among millionaires, 68% said they would need at least $3 million and 40% said feeling wealthy would require $5 million of more.
    When it comes to their salary, 58% of those surveyed said they would need to earn $100,000 on average to not worry about everyday living expenses, and a quarter said they would need to earn more than $200,000 to feel financially secure.
    In most cases, feeling financially secure is not based on how much you earn, but rather a commitment to save more than you spend, maintain a well-diversified portfolio and work with a financial advisor, experts often say.

    “Feeling wealthy can also be connected back to not having to worry about money,” said Isabel Barrow, the director of financial planning at Edelman Financial Engines. “It’s living within your means and not getting over your head in debt.”
    Just one-third, or 32%, of millionaires consider themselves wealthy and nearly half, 48%, believe that their financial plans need improvement, a separate planning and progress study by Northwestern Mutual found. Northwestern Mutual polled more than 4,500 adults in January.
    “For most Americans, ‘feeling like a million bucks’ is less about believing you’re rich and more about exuding confidence and clarity about the future,” said John Roberts, chief field officer at Northwestern Mutual.
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    You can’t always refinance a mortgage to capitalize on lower rates: Here’s when a lender may say ‘no’

    About 18% of consumers said they planned to refinance a loan once interest rates go down, according to a report by NerdWallet.
    But experts say applying for a refi doesn’t mean you’ll get approved. Your lender may say “no.”
    In some instances, a mortgage modification might be a workaround.

    The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, on Wednesday, its first rate cut since March 2020.
    Even before the Fed rate reduction, some homeowners had already taken advantage of recent declines in mortgage rates. Refinance activity increased to 46.7% of total applications during the week ended Sept. 6, up from 46.4% the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    Others have been waiting for the Fed to take action. To that point, 18% of consumers said they planned to refinance a loan once rates go down, according to a report by NerdWallet. The financial services site polled more than 2,000 U.S. adults in July. 
    But it might be too soon to benefit from refinancing a mortgage.
    “You want to wait for rates to be at a place where you’re happy to keep that rate for a period of time,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage in New York.
    Plus, experts say applying for a refi doesn’t mean you’ll get approved. Your lender may say “no.”
    “Regardless of what the Fed is doing, regardless of what’s happening in the broader economy, remember that you have a part to play in all of this, too,” said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree.

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    Factors that could limit your ability to refinance

    1. Your financial standing has changed
    Make sure your finances are in order. Otherwise, your lender might not approve your mortgage refinance, experts say.
    Applying to refinance is similar to applying for a mortgage. A change in your financial situation, like a layoff or lower income, or higher debt, could mean you don’t qualify.
    “Your mortgage rate and whether or not you get approved for a loan or refinance … depends on you,” said Channel.
    Think about all of the “variables that got you approved in the first place,” said Cohn, such as your credit score, your income and how much debt you’ve taken on recently. A change in those variables could affect your ability to be approved.
    2. You haven’t had your loan long enough
    How soon you can refinance your mortgage will depend on your loan time and lender’s requirements.
    You can refinance within days of closing with some types of loans, while others may require a year’s worth of payments, according to LendingTree.
    3. You refinanced recently 
    Technically, there are no hard limits on how many times you can refinance your mortgage, Channel said. 
    But some lenders will have waiting periods, he said. In those scenarios, if you refinance today, you might not be able to do so again in December if rates move lower after the Fed’s last meeting of the year. 
    “While there’s maybe not a hard limit on how many times you can refinance, you probably don’t really want to be doing it that often,” he said.

    You’re paying closing costs each time you refinance, “so you don’t want to spend money unwisely,” Cohn said.
    It may be in your best interest to only consider a mortgage refinance every few years, if your financial situation has changed or if rates are falling “really dramatically,” Channel explained.
    “Otherwise, you put yourself in a situation where you’ve spent so much money refinancing that your monthly savings don’t really account for much,” he said.

    ‘It may be worth talking about a mortgage modification’

    In some instances, a mortgage modification, or changes to your original home loan to make your payments more manageable, might be an option.
    “If you’re really, really struggling, and say something catastrophic has happened in your life … instead of a refinance, it may be worth talking about a mortgage modification with your lender,” said Channel.
    To be sure, the broader housing market is not at a risk of a collapse and most homeowners are “not teetering on the edge of foreclosure,” he said.
    But if you are experiencing financial hardship, your lender may be willing to modify the terms of your mortgage, said Channel. Reach out to your lender and see if you qualify.
    Remember that whether a mortgage refinance makes sense will depend on factors like your income, how long you anticipate staying in your home and your closing costs, said Cohn.
    “There’s no single rule of thumb that applies to everyone in the country,” she said.
    Talk with your lender or broker, or reach out to a financial advisor to determine what may work best for you, said Channel. 
    “They’ll be able to walk you through the specifics of your situation,” he said.

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