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Black Friday to Cyber Monday is one of the busiest shopping periods of the year as consumers try to maximize the weekend’s deals.
Retailers tempt shoppers with incentives and discounts. But these are not necessarily the best prices of the year, according to shopping experts.
Here’s what not to buy on Black Friday and how to snag the lowest prices overall.

A customer visits Macy’s Herald Square store in New York City during early morning Black Friday sales, Nov. 24, 2023.
Kena Betancur | Getty Images

Typically, the five days beginning Thanksgiving Day and ending Cyber Monday are some of the busiest shopping days of the year.
This year, the number of people shopping in stores and online during that period could hit a new record, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey.

But consumers trying to make the most of the Black Friday sales may not be getting the best prices of the season.
According to WalletHub’s 2023 Best Things to Buy on Black Friday report, 35% of items at major retailers offered no savings compared with their pre-Black Friday prices. The site compared Black Friday advertisements against prices on Amazon earlier that fall. 
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“Some Black Friday deals are misleading as retailers may inflate original prices to make a deal look like a better value,” said consumer savings expert Andrea Woroch.
This year, in particular, some of the deals are already as good as they are going to get.

“Those holidays have gotten a little watered down because retailers want to maximize the selling days,” said Adam Davis, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance.
“Compounding the importance of stretching the holiday season, retailers are facing a shorter selling season between Thanksgiving and Christmas — almost a week shorter in 2024,” he said. “That will force the retailer’s hand to be pretty promotional in November.”

Concerns about shipping

There’s another good reason to shop early.
Consumers are increasingly concerned that their online orders may not arrive in time for the holiday — and rightfully so.
DHL Supply Chain’s new CEO for North America, Patrick Kelleher, recently told CNBC that items may arrive later than in years past, especially those ordered around big dates such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

In a period of such high volume, third-party shippers are particularly strained, according to Lauren Beitelspacher, a professor of marketing at Babson College. An ongoing labor shortage also means that some companies simply cannot hire enough workers to sort, transport and deliver packages on time.
“We are very spoiled; we got to the point where we think of something we want and it magically appears,” Beitelspacher said. But at the same time, “we’ve learned how fragile the supply chain is.”
When there are more packages to ship, shipping times increase, which can also boost the chance they may get damaged, lost or stolen en route — not to mention the risk of “porch piracy” once an item is delivered.

What discounts to expect on Black Friday

“You are easily going to see 20% to 30% off,” Davis said — but “not necessarily storewide.”
Depending on the retailer, some markdowns could be up to 50%, according to Beitelspacher. However, premium brands — including high-end activewear companies such as Nike, Alo or Lululemon — likely will not discount more than 20% or 30%, she said. “It’s a fine balance with maintaining the premium brand integrity and offering promotions.”
As in previous years, these companies are aware of how price sensitive consumers have become.
“The holidays are a time people want to treat themselves, but they also want to make their dollar last longer,” Beitelspacher said.
To that end, retailers will also try to lure shoppers to spend with incentives, such as a free gift card with a minimum purchase, Woroch said. “Many stores will also offer bonus rewards when you spend a certain amount on Black Friday.”

What not to buy on Black Friday

Typically, Black Friday is a great time to find rock-bottom prices on fall clothing — including flannels, denim, coats and accessories — as well as televisions and consumer electronics. 
But hold off on beauty and footwear, which are typically better buys on Cyber Monday, Woroch said.
For those planning a trip, “Travel Tuesday” is a good time to snag discounts on airfares, cruises and tour packages, with many hotels offering 20% to 30% off best available rates. Travelers can check out Travel Tuesday deals from 2023 to get an idea of what to expect this year.

With toys, it could pay to hold out until the last two weeks of December, and holiday decorations are cheaper the last few days before Christmas or right after, according to Woroch.
Exercise equipment, linens and bedding tend to be marked down more during January’s “white sales,” she said, and furniture and mattress deals are often better over other holiday weekends throughout the year, such as Presidents’ Day, Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends.

How to get even lower prices

Woroch recommends using a price-tracking browser extension such as Honey or Camelizer to keep an eye on price changes and alert you when a price drops. Honey will also scan for applicable coupon codes.
If you are shopping in person, try the ShopSavvy app for price comparisons. If an item costs less at another store or popular site, often the retailer will match the price, Woroch said.
Further, stack discounts: Combining credit card rewards with coupon codes and a cash-back site such as CouponCabin.com will earn money back on those purchases. Then, take pictures of your receipts using the Fetch app and get points that can be redeemed for gift cards at retailers such as Walmart, Target and Amazon.
Finally, pay attention to price adjustment policies. “If an item you buy over Black Friday goes on sale for less shortly after, you may be able to request a price adjustment,” Woroch said. Some retailers such as Target have season-long policies that may apply to purchases made up until Dec. 25. More

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Company: Meta Platforms (META)

Business: Meta Platforms builds technologies that help people find communities and grow businesses. The company’s products enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, wearables and in-home devices. The company operates through two segments: Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL). FoA includes Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and other services. RL includes augmented and virtual reality-related consumer hardware, software and content. Facebook enables people to connect, share, discover and communicate with each other on mobile devices and personal computers. Instagram is a place where people can express themselves through photos, videos and private messaging. Messenger is a messaging application for people to connect with friends, family, groups and businesses across platforms and devices.
Stock Market Value: $1.39T ($554.08 per share)

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Meta Platforms in 2024

Activist: ValueAct Capital

Ownership: n/a
Average Cost: n/a
Activist Commentary: ValueAct has been a premier corporate governance investor for over 20 years. ValueAct principals are generally on the boards of half of ValueAct’s core portfolio positions and have had 56 public company board seats over 23 years. ValueAct has previously commenced activist campaigns at 26 information technology companies and has had an average return of 54.63% versus 30.16% for the Russell 2000 over the same period.

What’s happening

Behind the scenes

ValueAct has extensive experience in mega-cap technology companies, most notably Microsoft and Salesforce. ValueAct CEO Mason Morfit was on the board of Microsoft from March 2014 through the end of 2017 as the tech giant transformed into a cloud-based enterprise software business and went from a $250 billion market cap company to more than $3 trillion today. At Salesforce, when a handful of activists were engaging, the company opted to add Morfit to its board on Jan. 27, 2023, and the stock has more than doubled since then.

Now, ValueAct has engaged another titan of the market, Meta Platforms, announcing an approximately $1 billion dollar position in the company. Meta’s products enable people to connect and share through various platforms and devices, including mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, wearables, and in-home devices. The company operates through two segments: Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL). FoA includes social media applications such as Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and WhatsApp, while RL includes augmented and virtual reality-related consumer hardware, software and content. This has been an extremely volatile year for Meta’s stock price — with dips below $400 per share and highs above $600 — giving ValueAct many opportunities to acquire its position at a favorable price. With the stock price up about 56% in 2024, ValueAct still sees significant untapped value in Meta.Meta is expected to deliver $30 in EPS by 2026, which at a 20-times multiple would put the company at approximately $600 per share. This EPS can be broken down into the company’s two segments: $40 EPS from its core FoA segment and -$10 EPS from the RL segment. This would place the valuation of Meta’s core FoA business at $800 per share, while its RL segment would be valued at -$200 per share, or a $400 billion drain on the company’s valuation. This -$10 EPS from the RL segment is made up of -$7 from the RL division and -$3 from AI spending. ValueAct has shown at Microsoft and Salesforce that it is very good in helping companies trim fat and build muscle. There is certainly some fat in the RL division that can be trimmed. The AI spending, while concerning to some in the market, can be the muscle that strengthens Meta’s core FoA business. AI will provide benefits to many companies, but one of its best uses is to create value in consumer internet and matching-based business models that are monetized by connecting their vast audiences to relevant content or services, such as such as Spotify, Indeed.com and Expedia. When AI and GPU computing power are applied to these business models, it can lead to significant improvements in matchmaking and monetization. This is because at the end of the day, AI – even generative AI – is just pattern spotting and pattern recognition, so its application can inherently enhance user-product matching and preference alignment. Meta can be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this market in its core FoA business with respect to delivering content and optimizing advertising. The second lever for AI growth for Meta is the impact of how developers are using large language models (LLMs) to create technologies. Developers are increasingly using multiple LLMs within the same project, so they rely on tools that enable different models to work together. Currently led by OpenAI and Microsoft, companies are competing to control the tools used to layer these LLMs, which are necessary to run and develop new technologies. To enter this market, Mark Zuckerberg has open-sourced Meta’s “LLaMA” model, a high-performance AI model designed to compete with OpenAI’s GPT and Microsoft’s Copilot. The decision to open-source LLaMa has helped build Meta’s role in the AI ecosystem by driving LLaMA adoption. It should more than justify Meta’s AI spend. So, if Meta continues to bleed the RL division at the same pace and gets absolutely no value from its AI spend, it will have a $600 stock in 2026. However, if ValueAct can do what it has been able to do at Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe and others – help grow the muscle and trim the fat – RL’s -$7 should decline substantially and AI’s -$3 will be money well spent and be a significant value creator, as opposed to a drain on value as the market attributes today. Even a neutral valuation ($0 EPS) for RL/AI would place Meta at $800 per share, implying 40% growth from its current price. And if AI prospects become positive, which seems very plausible given these potential avenues of growth, RL/AI should actually contribute to EPS growth. Thus, 40% growth almost becomes a floor that underscores the significant upside for Meta.
This is not ValueAct taking a “flyer” on AI. First of all, ValueAct is a very thoughtful and diligent investor and doesn’t take “flyers.” Second, ValueAct has extensive experience from both sides of AI. The firm has been in the boardroom at companies like Microsoft and Salesforce, two of the largest developers of AI. And the firm has been an active shareholder at companies like Spotify, The New York Times, Expedia and Recruit (Indeed.com) some of the largest users and beneficiaries of AI. So, when ValueAct invests in AI, it isn’t just spit balling. The firm thoroughly understands AI and how its customers can use it.
When thinking about how ValueAct will approach this engagement going forward, we must address the elephant in the room: Meta is a controlled company, with Mark Zuckerberg holding approximately 61% of the company’s voting power. While most activists would never bother with a controlled company for obvious reasons, ValueAct actually has a strong track record of creating value at controlled or quasi-controlled companies, including engagements at Martha Stewart Living, The New York Times, 21st Century Fox, Spotify and KKR. In these situations, ValueAct averaged a return of 124.12% compared to an average of 30.79% for the relevant market benchmark. This is because ValueAct understands that activism is about the power of the idea; the power of the argument; the power of persuasion. As such, even in its investments in non-controlled companies, the firm almost always only takes one board seat because it is confident that its ideas will resonate. However, given Meta’s controlled structure, we don’t expect ValueAct to push as hard for a board seat here as it might at other portfolio companies. In a controlled company you can almost be as effective as an active shareholder as you can as a director. That being said, given ValueAct’s track record of board success, particularly at other mega-cap technology companies, shareholders would be well served if Meta added a ValueAct representative to the board.
Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments. More

The Three Mile Island restart could mark a turning point for a nuclear industry that once faced a wave of power plant closures due to poor economics.
The fortunes of the industry have shifted dramatically this year as the tech sector turns to nuclear power to meet the electricity demand of artificial intelligence.
Constellation Energy is confident the plant will restart on schedule in 2028, supplying power to Microsoft and helping to stabilize the grid.

Cooling towers at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024.
Danielle DeVries | CNBC

MIDDLETOWN, Pa. — The owner of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant is embarking on an ambitious plan to restart operations before the end of the decade, marking the latest chapter in the history of a plant that symbolizes the future promise, past struggles and lingering fears of nuclear energy in the United States.
The twin cooling towers that stretch hundreds of feet above the Susquehanna River just south of Middletown, Pennsylvania, went dormant in 2019 after billowing water vapor into the sky for four decades. Its owner at the time, Exelon, permanently shut down the Unit 1 reactor, citing “severe economic challenges.”

Unit 1 is one of a dozen reactors that closed in the U.S. over the past decade as nuclear industry struggled to compete against cheap and abundant natural gas. But the fortunes of the industry have shifted dramatically this year as deep-pocketed technology companies turn to nuclear power to meet the tremendous electricity consumption of their future business: artificial intelligence.
Constellation Energy, the plant’s current owner, plans to restart Unit 1 in 2028, subject to monitoring and approval by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Constellation, headquartered in Baltimore, spun off from Exelon in 2022; it has the nation’s largest fleet, or group, of nuclear power plants, operating 21 of the 94 reactors in the U.S.
“This is a plant that we ran and ran very well,” plant manager Trevor Orth told the NRC at an Oct. 25 meeting. “We shut it down. We understand how we shut it down, and we have a good idea of how we’re going to restart this.”

The main control room of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024.
Danielle DeVries | CNBC

While Constellation will restore the plant, it will ditch the name Three Mile Island. The plant will be rechristened the Crane Clean Energy Center, after the late CEO of Exelon, Chris Crane. Constellation said the restart will cost $1.6 billion, financed by the company’s own funds.
(Take a deeper look inside the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant here.)

Microsoft has made the restart of Unit 1 possible through an agreement to purchase the full electricity output from the plant for 20 years, a sign of the growing role the tech sector is playing in shaping the future of the U.S. power industry.
Microsoft said the agreement is part of its strategy of meeting the growing electricity needs of its data centers with power that is free of carbon dioxide emissions in an effort to mitigate the impact of its business on the climate.

Part of a control panel at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024.
Danielle DeVries | CNBC

Those data centers are playing a critical role in the U.S. economy, housing servers that run the cloud computing that businesses and consumers now rely on for life’s digital daily tasks. They are also essential for the development of artificial intelligence, technology that is viewed as critical for the nation’s future economic competitiveness and national security.
With four years until the planned restart, one of the big uncertainties is whether Constellation can deliver the power to Microsoft on time. Nuclear projects are notoriously plagued by long delays, big cost overruns and cancellations. But Unit 1 is in good condition and Constellation is confident the plant will restart on schedule, said Bryan Hanson, the company’s chief generation officer.
Most of the restoration at Unit 1 will be normal maintenance work that Constellation conducts regularly on its fleet of nuclear plants, Hanson said during an Oct. 30 tour of the plant.
“Not an ounce of concrete needs to be poured, not one piece of rebar needs to be tied, not one cable needs to be pulled. The infrastructure is here,” the executive said. “The challenge of delays — I don’t see it.”

A control panel in the main control room of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024.
Danielle DeVries | CNBC

Constellation’s decision to restart Three Mile Island follows Holtec International’s decision to restart its Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan. Palisades is poised to become the first reactor to restart operations in U.S. history in 2025 after shutting down.
Holtec has plans to nearly double the power capacity of the facility in the 2030s by building two small modular reactors, next-generation technology that promises to make nuclear plants less costly and easier to deploy.
Amazon and Alphabet’s Google recently announced investments in small modular reactors.
While Constellation has not committed to building a small modular reactor at any of its plants yet, Hanson said the company is open to working with the tech sector to build new nuclear reactors in the U.S.
“If our customers come to us again, like a Microsoft, and say ‘we want to help you build new nuclear’ — we’ll probably join hands and figure out a way to do that,” Hanson said.

Lingering fears

Unit 1 is a short walk from the site of the worst nuclear accident in U.S. history.
The partial meltdown of the Unit 2 reactor at Three Mile Island in 1979 had a chilling effect on the development of new nuclear plants in the U.S. Unit 2 has not operated since the accident and is being decommissioned by its current owner, Energy Solutions, a private nuclear services company.
Unit 1 operated safely and efficiently before it was shut down for economic reasons, said Mike Goff, acting assistant secretary for the Office of Nuclear Energy at the Department of Energy.
But Pennsylvania state Rep. Thomas Mehaffie said his constituents have mixed feelings about the restart of Unit 1, particularly those who are old enough to remember the accident at Unit 2.

Pennsylvania state Rep. Tom Mehaffie speaks in front of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024.
Danielle DeVries | CNBC

“Of course people who were here during that time frame, who are older — there is concern. There always has been concern,” said Mehaffie, who represents the communities around Three Mile Island at the state legislature in Harrisburg. Mehaffie’s father was a union electrician who helped build the nuclear plants.
Hanson said the nuclear industry has learned from this chapter of its history.
“The 1979 accident taught us that our standards weren’t right at the time,” Hanson said. The U.S. nuclear industry today has the best safety, reliability and operational standards in the world, he said.
While some constituents have concerns, others see the economic value that the restart will bring, Mehaffie said. The restart of Unit 1 will bring an estimated 3,400 jobs to the region, according to a study by the Pennsylvania Building & Construction Trades Council.  

Grid reliability

The planned restart of Three Mile Island is also a step to help ensure the region’s electric grid remains reliable, Mehaffie said. Unit 1 will bring back 835 megawatts of carbon-free electricity, equivalent to the consumption of more than 600,000 homes, at a time when the grid is on the brink of faltering.
Electricity demand is outpacing supply, as power plants, particularly those that run on coal, are retired faster than new capacity is built, grid operator PJM Interconnection warned in July. PJM operates the grid in Pennsylvania and 12 other states.
“Grid reliability is everything,” Mehaffie said.
PJM has forecast that electricity demand will surge nearly 40% by 2039 due to the expansion of data centers, manufacturing and the electrification of industry and transportation. Meanwhile, 40 gigawatts of power generation is at risk of retirement by 2030; that’s about 21% of PJM’s installed capacity.
“We’re seeing potentially catastrophic early retirements of dispatchable resources,” Mark Christie, a commissioner at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said during a public hearing Nov. 1.

A cooling tower at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024.
Danielle DeVries | CNBC

Federal energy regulators are worried that tech companies’ pursuit of deals that redirect power from the electric grid directly to their data centers could exacerbate supply shortages and threaten grid stability.
Microsoft said the electricity it will be purchasing from Unit 1 will feed into the grid and will not directly power its data centers. Microsoft is committed to bolstering the grid as it secures power for its data centers, said Alistair Speirs, senior director of global infrastructure for Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform.
“When we operate in the community, if we’re not stabilizing, adding resiliency to the grid, then it’s hard for us to keep our social license to operate,” Speirs said.
Microsoft is not involved in the physical restoration of the plant, Hanson said, but Constellation is providing status reports to the company.

Restoration and restart timeline

Constellation laid out how it plans to restart the plant in the company’s first public meeting with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Oct. 25. While Wall Street is generally bullish on the restart, Citi has cautioned that Constellation could face challenges in completing the project on schedule.
“Given the regulatory and physical challenges, we assume that [Constellation] is likely to experience some delays and cost overruns to execute on the restart,” Citi analyst Ryan Levine told clients in an Oct. 14 note.
Citi initiated coverage of Constellation with a neutral rating in October on delay concerns. Constellation’s stock has gained more than 90% since the start of the year and 12% since the Three Mile Island restart was announced Sept. 20.
Levine is an outlier. The vast majority of analysts rate the stock a buy or strong buy, with the average price target predicting more than 23% upside.

The turbine deck of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024.
Danielle DeVries | CNBC

Hanson said crucial and expensive equipment such as the steam generators and main power generator have undergone inspection and maintenance by Constellation and are in good condition.
The steam generators were replaced in 2009 and are ready for restart, he said. The internals of the main power generator, built by General Electric nearly 50 years ago, were replaced a little over a decade ago, he said. The main generator has been cleaned and needs some routine maintenance, he said.
The plant’s main power transformers need to be replaced at a cost of $75 million to $100 million, Hanson said. The transformers are on order with delivery expected in late 2026, he said.
One of the cooling towers has been gutted and will be refurbished. The analog control room will remain the same with the exception of some rewiring, Hanson said.
The simulator that mimics the control room also needs to be restored so plant operators can be trained there. One of the most critical items for restoring plant operations is training operators for NRC certification, a process that takes about 18 months, Hanson said.

The turbine deck of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024.
Danielle DeVries | CNBC

Constellation is currently prohibited from operating and loading fuel into the reactor vessel because the plant was permanently shut down. Constellation plans to file an exemption request in November that would remove these restrictions if approved by the NRC.
“That will officially mark the start of our restart activities,” Dennis Moore, senior manager of licensing at Constellation, told the NRC.
Constellation plans to file a request to change the plant’s name from Three Mile Island to the Crane Clean Energy Center in February. Later in 2025, Constellation will submit filings on the plant’s technical specifications, environmental impact, emergency plan, and site security plan for NRC review, the company said.
Constellation intends to send an operational readiness letter to the NRC by July 2027. The company would then begin testing and return to power if the NRC determines that the plant is ready to operate and authorizes placing fuel in the reactor.
In the meantime, Constellation does not need NRC permission to “start turning wrenches and doing restoration work” at the plant, said Scott Burnell, a spokesperson for the regulator. The NRC will be monitoring the work to make sure the regulator’s requirements are met, Burnell said.
The restarts at Three Mile Island and Palisades will likely secure NRC approval, Goff said.
“They are an independent agency, but I expect if the safety cases are presented, they’re going to approve it,” Goff told CNBC in September.

Don’t miss these energy insights from CNBC PRO: More

Processed food stocks tumbled on Friday as investors feared a crackdown under President-elect Donald Trump and ally Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The declines came after Trump named Kennedy as his nominee for secretary of the Health and Human Services Department.
Kennedy, who ran as an independent candidate for president before throwing his support behind Trump, has pushed for major changes to the FDA, including the removal of nutrition departments.

A chip and snack food display at a convenience store in Miami Beach, Florida.
Jeff Greenberg | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Processed food stocks tumbled on Friday as investors feared a crackdown under President-elect Donald Trump and ally Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Soda titans PepsiCo and Coca-Cola dropped more than 4% and 1.3%, respectively, in late-day trading Friday. Cheerios cereal and Betty Crocker cake mix maker General Mills fell more than 2%, as did Conagra Brands, the company behind Reddi-wip.

Campbell Soup, which makes Goldfish crackers and Pepperidge Farm cookies, retreated close to 3%. Kraft Heinz, known for its macaroni and cheese and Oscar Mayer hot dogs, eased 2%.
Frozen potato supplier Lamb Weston, whose french fries are sold in chains including McDonald’s and Chick-fil-A, dropped more than 6%.
The declines came after Trump named Kennedy as his nominee for secretary of the Health and Human Services Department, which oversees the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, among dozens of federal agencies. Trump’s selection of Kennedy, a noted vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist, drew criticism from some politicians on Capitol Hill as well as public health experts.
If Kennedy wins approval from the Senate, he will also oversee Medicare, Medicaid and the National Institutes of Health.
Traders are wary that Kennedy’s “Make America Healthy Again” focus will result in increased scrutiny of companies behind some of the best-known snack, packaged food and soft-drink brands. Kennedy, who ran as an independent candidate for president before throwing his support behind Trump, has pushed for major changes to the FDA, including the removal of nutrition departments.

“They’re not protecting our kids,” Kennedy said of current regulators in an interview with NBC News last week. “Why do we have Fruit Loops in this country that have 18 or 19 ingredients and you go to Canada and it’s got two or three?”
Fruit Loops are made by WK Kellogg Co. The stock bucked the trend with an advance on Friday, but finished down more than 4% on the week.

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ETF Strategist

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ETF Strategist

Tax-loss harvesting can turn your portfolio losses into tax breaks.
But investors need to know the “wash sale rule,” which blocks the tax break if you buy “substantially identical” assets within the 30-day window before or after the sale.
If you want to stay invested, exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, can help avoid the wash sale rule, experts say.

Izusek | E+ | Getty Images

Despite a strong year for the stock market, you could still be sitting on portfolio losses. But you can leverage down assets to score a tax break, experts say.
The tactic, known as “tax-loss harvesting,” involves selling losing brokerage account assets to claim a loss. When you file your taxes, you can use those losses to offset portfolio gains. Once your investment losses exceed profits, you can use the excess to reduce regular income by up to $3,000 per year.

“Tax-loss harvesting is a tried and true strategy to lower investors’ tax bills,” said certified financial planner David Flores Wilson, managing partner at Sincerus Advisory in New York. 

More from ETF Strategist:

Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.

After offsetting $3,000 in regular income, investors can carry any additional losses forward into future years to offset capital gains or income.
“Investors can benefit substantially over time” by tax-loss harvesting consistently throughout the year, Wilson said.

What to know about the wash sale rule

Tax-loss harvesting can be simple when you’re eager to offload a losing asset. But it’s tricky when you still want exposure to that asset.That’s because of guidelines from the IRS known as the “wash sale rule,” which blocks you from claiming the tax break on losses if you rebuy a “substantially identical” asset within the 30-day window before or after the sale.In other words, you can’t sell a losing asset to claim a loss and then immediately repurchase the same investment. 

How exchange-traded funds can help

While the wash sale rule is a challenge, exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, can help investors avoid trouble with the IRS, experts say.”The beauty of using ETFs for doing tax-loss harvesting … is that there are so many similar, but not identical, ETFs that could be exchanged for a losing one,” said George Gagliardi, a CFP and founder of Coromandel Wealth Strategies in Lexington, Massachusetts. For example, many ETFs in the same sector, such as large-cap value, emerging market or small-cap growth, use the same pool of stocks with different selection criteria, he said.But ETFs with identical indexes, like the S&P 500, “will run afoul of the wash sale rule” and the loss won’t be allowed, Gagliardi said.

Ultimately, the IRS definition of “substantially identical” isn’t black and white and “depends on the facts and circumstances” of your case, according to the agency.
When in doubt, consider reviewing your plan with an advisor or tax professional to make sure you’re safe from violating the wash sale rule. More

When asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” the answer for many older voters ages 50 and over was “no,” according to a new AARP poll.
More than half of voters ages 50 and up prioritized personal economic issues, including inflation, the economy and jobs, and Social Security when determining their vote.

Voters line up to cast their ballots at a voting location in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, on Nov. 5, 2024.
Samuel Corum | Afp | Getty Images

When asked, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” the answer for many older voters ages 50 and over was “no,” according to a new postelection poll released by AARP.
Almost half — 47% — of voters ages 50 and over said they are “worse off now,” the research found, while more than half — 55% — of swing voters in that age cohort said the same.

In competitive congressional districts, President-elect Donald Trump won the 50 and over vote by 2 percentage points — the same margin by which he carried the country, AARP found.
Among voters 50 to 64, Trump won by 7 points. With voters ages 65 and over, Vice President Kamala Harris won by 2 points.
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AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, a bipartisan team of Republican and Democrat firms providing public opinion research and consulting, to conduct the survey. Interviews were conducted with 2,348 “likely voters” in targeted congressional districts following Election Day between Nov. 6 and 10.
Older voters, who make up an outsized share of the vote and tend to lean Republican, made a difference in a lot of key congressional races, according to Bob Ward, a Republican pollster and partner at Fabrizio Ward.

“Overall, 50-plus voters really are what delivered Republicans their majority,” Ward said.

Older swing voters focused on pocketbook issues

When asked “How worried are you about your personal financial situation?” in a June AARP survey, 62% of voters ages 50 and over checked the worry box, while 63% of voters overall did the same.
Voters continued to place an emphasis on their money concerns on Election Day, the latest AARP poll found.
“All these surveys that we conducted for AARP spoke to a lack of economic security for people,” said Jeff Liszt, partner at Impact Research.
“The shock of inflation had left them without a feeling of security,” he said.
For voters ages 50 and over, food ranked as the top cost concern, with 39%, the poll found. That was followed by health care and prescription drugs, with 20%; housing, 14%; gasoline, 10%; and electricity, 6%.
More than half — 55% — of voters ages 50 and up said they prioritized personal economic issues, including inflation, the economy and jobs, and Social Security when determining their vote.

Older swing voters were more likely to turn out at the polls due to those pocketbook issues than any other priorities, the poll found.  
Republicans won older voters on most personal economic issues, though voters ages 50 and up still favored Democrats on Social Security by 2 points.  
Democrats have traditionally had a stronger lead on Social Security, Ward said, while the poll results show it is now “completely up for grabs.”
“Looking at the midterms, whether I’m Republican or Democrat … this is going to be an issue I want to win on,” Ward said.
Voters 50 and over broadly support Medicare negotiating prescription drug prices, as well as policies to help the older population age at home. Nonfinancial issues such as immigration and border security and threats to democracy were also among top concerns for some older voters.

Social Security reform may be bigger focus

While both presidential candidates promised to protect Social Security on the campaign trail, they did not provide plans to restore the program’s solvency.
The trust fund Social Security relies on to pay benefits is projected to run dry in 2033, at which point 79% of those benefits will be payable.
“What’s absolutely clear is that there’s an action-forcing event that we’re getting closer to, and that at some point Congress is going to have to act,” said Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group focused on expanding the program.

While Trump has touted plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, research has found that would worsen the program’s insolvency. The House voted this week to eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for certain people who have pension income, which would also add to the program’s costs.
For most Americans, Social Security is the primary source of retirement income, according to AARP. About 42% of people ages 65 and over rely on the program for at least 50% of their incomes; about 20% rely on it for at least 90% of their incomes.
Like Social Security, Medicare also faces a looming trust fund depletion for the Part A program that covers hospital insurance.
“We want to ensure that we’re protecting Medicare, Social Security and that it’s done in a fiscally responsible way,” AARP CEO Dr. Myechia Minter-Jordan told CNBC in a recent interview.

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Cathie Wood is defending her underperforming ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund following a rocky stretch.
Shares of the technology fund have lost nearly two-thirds of their value from their Covid-19 pandemic heyday.

Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, speaks during an interview on CNBC on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Feb. 27, 2023.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Cathie Wood is defending her underperforming ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund following a rocky stretch.
“We have a volatile fund,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. “We should not be a huge slice of any portfolio. We are more of a satellite strategy now, although we think this is the way the world is going.”

Shares of the technology fund have lost nearly two-thirds of their value from their Covid-19 pandemic heyday, when market excitement and the meme stock craze drove shares to nearly $160 and led the fund to more than double in 2020, soaring 149%.
Since then, the fund has underperformed, fueling skepticism over the Ark Invest CEO’s investment strategies. Shares are up 2.8% this year, far behind the S&P 500’s 24% gain, and over the past three years have lost about 23% annually, according to FactSet data.
Wood acknowledged that several “interesting behaviors” during the pandemic sent ARKK shares higher, but asserted that many of the technologies and research underpinning her firm’s investments are “much more advanced.”
She called out the multiomics life sciences and health-care sectors as the biggest drag on the fund. This should change as new genome therapy editing companies such as Intellia Therapeutics emerge as providing alternative disease-curing methods.
“We think we’re a very good complement to the broad-based benchmarks out there, because we don’t look anything like them,” she said of her fund. “And truth will win out.” More

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S. slightly dipped to 6.78% for the week ending Nov. 14, barely changed from 6.79% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.
That stabilization may be a good sign for the housing market.
“When rates are moving around a lot, it makes a lot of uncertainty in the market,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. 

Pekic | E+ | Getty Images

Mortgage rates seem to have steadied. That may be a good sign for the market, experts say.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S. slightly dipped to 6.78% for the week ending Nov. 14, barely changed from 6.79% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

“Even though it’s higher than it has been over the course of several weeks, it’s probably good news for homebuyers,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors. 

“When rates are moving around a lot, it makes a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Lautz said. 
Mortgage rates declined this fall in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020. But then borrowing costs jumped again this month as the bond market reacted to Donald Trump’s election win.
While the president-elect has talked about bringing mortgage rates down, presidents do not control borrowing costs for home loans, experts say.
Instead, mortgage rates closely track Treasury yields and are partially affected by what happens with the federal funds rate.

“They foresee inflationary policies, whether it’s tariffs or greater government spending, the tax bill … they’re pricing in more inflation,” said James Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. “As the bond market reacts, mortgage rates are going to react to that, too.”
More from Personal Finance:What Trump’s presidency could mean for the housing marketCredit card debt hits record $1.17 trillionHere’s the inflation breakdown for October 2024
Less volatility can be a good sign, said Chen Zhao, chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage.
“High volatility by itself actually pushes mortgage rates even higher above treasury yields,” Zhao said. “More stable rates also means that homebuyers don’t have to worry during their home search about what their budget allows for changing.”
Trump’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

Don’t expect ‘huge swings’ on mortgage rates

Election uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. Then rates went up even more last week as the stock market and yields reacted to the election results.
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points on Nov. 6, closing to trade at 4.43%, hitting its highest level since July, as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic growth, along with fiscal spending. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 0.073 basis point to 4.276% that day, reaching its highest level since July 31.
But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said.
From a monetary policy standpoint, future rate cuts are up in the air. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.
If the Fed continues to ease the federal funds rate, it could provide indirect downward pressure on mortgage rates, according to NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.
“However, improved growth expectations would lead to higher rates, as would larger government deficits,” he said.
Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a “bumpy” or “volatile” path over the next year.
“I don’t think that there’s going to be any huge swings down into the 5% range,” Lautz said. “Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025,” she said.

How buyers, sellers and homeowners can benefit

Rates that are trending lower can present an opportunity for buyers who have been house hunting for a while, especially as the winter season kicks in. Competition tends to slow down in the winter months in part because homebuyers with children are in the middle of the school year and reluctant to move, Lautz said. 

Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025.

Jessica Lautz
Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors

Current homeowners can also make the most of lower rates.
For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said. 
It “makes sense” to consider a refinance if rates have fallen one to two points since you took out the loan, Jeff Ostrowski, a housing expert at Bankrate.com, told CNBC after the Fed’s first rate cut this fall.
Remember that a loan refinance isn’t free; you may incur associated costs such as closing costs, an appraisal and title insurance. While the total cost will depend on your area, a refinance is going to cost between 2% and 6% of the loan amount, Jacob Channel, an economist at LendingTree, said at that time.
If you’re pondering on whether to refi or not, look at what’s going on with rates, reach out to lenders and see if refinancing makes sense for you, experts say.

Homeowners have earned record home equity. U.S. homeowners with mortgages have a net homeowner equity of over $17.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2024, according to CoreLogic. Home equity increased in the second quarter of this year by $1.3 trillion, an 8.0% growth from a year prior.
If you’re looking to sell your current home, you may be able to counteract slightly high borrowing costs on your next property by placing a larger down payment, Lautz said. More