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President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both want to extend expiring tax breaks for most Americans.
That could be difficult amid the federal budget deficit, policy experts say.
Fully extending Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions could add an estimated $4.6 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump 2024.
Brendan Smialowski | Jon Cherry | Getty Images

Presumptive nominees President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have both pledged to extend expiring tax breaks for most Americans — but questions remain on how to pay for it.
Trillions in tax breaks enacted by Trump via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, or TCJA, will expire after 2025 without action from Congress. This would increase taxes for more than 60% of filers, according to the Tax Foundation.

Expiring individual provisions include lower federal income brackets, higher standard deductions, a more generous child tax credit and more.
But the federal budget deficit will be a “huge sticking point” as the 2025 tax cliff approaches, said Erica York, senior economist and research manager with the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy.
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Fully extending TCJA provisions could add an estimated $4.6 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office reported in May.
The cost of extending major parts of the TCJA has grown about 50% since initial estimates in 2018, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

In 2018, the Congressional Budget Office estimated economic growth from the TCJA would cover about 20% of the cost of tax cuts. But the effects were smaller, studies have shown.
“There’s no serious economist who thinks that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act remotely came close to paying for itself,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. “And nobody thinks that extending it or making it permanent is going to pay for itself.”

There’s no serious economist who thinks that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act remotely came close to paying for itself.

Howard Gleckman
Senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center

Proposals from Biden and Trump

Trump wants to extend all TCJA provisions and Biden plans to extend tax breaks for taxpayers who make less than $400,000, which is most Americans. 
Biden’s top economic advisor, Lael Brainard, in May called for higher taxes on the ultra-wealthy and corporations to help fund TCJA extensions for middle-class Americans. By comparison, Trump has renewed his support for tariffs, or taxes levied on imported goods from another country.
However, these policy proposals are uncertain, particularly without knowing which party will control the White House and Congress. More

The first Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, checks were sent in 1974.
Fifty years later, the federal program is now seeing some improvements that may help people access and qualify for benefits.
Congress may be poised to consider additional changes to SSI’s strict rules.

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A federal program for people with disabilities and older adults made its first benefit payments 50 years ago.
In 1974, Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, began sending the first monthly checks starting at around $140 per individual, or $210 per couple.

In 2024, the maximum monthly benefit is $943 for individuals and $1,415 for eligible couples. However, the average monthly benefit for individuals is around $698.
That is well below the federal poverty level, which in 2024 is around $1,255 per month for an individual.
Experts say the program — with more than 7 million beneficiaries who must have little income or resources in order to qualify — could be updated to better fulfill its intended mission as a financial lifeline when former President Richard Nixon signed the program into law in 1972.
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SSI benefits come with strict restrictions. Income from work and other sources may reduce how much beneficiaries receive from the program. Additionally, they must stay under certain asset limits — $2,000 for individuals and $3,000 for couples — or risk suspension or termination of their benefits.

The rules are not only a burden for beneficiaries, but also the Social Security Administration.
“For all the people that receive SSI, it’s really only 4% of our total benefits that we lay out as an agency, yet it accounts for 38% of our administrative overhead and workload,” Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley said at a National Academy of Social Insurance event last week in Washington, D.C., to commemorate the program’s anniversary.

Updates aimed at improving benefit access

The Social Security Administration is taking steps to try to reduce some of the restrictions that come with SSI benefits.
The agency has announced that it will no longer count food as unearned income — formally known as in-kind support and maintenance, or ISM — which penalizes beneficiaries when their family provides dinner for them, for example. It is also expanding the rental subsidy policy for SSI applicants and beneficiaries, as well as the definition of a public assistance household. Those changes, which are slated to go into effect starting Sept. 30, should allow more people to access and qualify for SSI, O’Malley said.
Moreover, the agency has also made it easier for beneficiaries to request waivers for overpayments, or excess benefits they may have received. It also increased the SSI underpayment threshold to $15,000 from $5,000, which has helped resolve backlogged cases.

Congress may implement more changes

Congress may further improve the program through additional reforms.
By bringing the Social Security Administration’s operating overhead up to where it was a decade ago, the agency could further work to alleviate disability application approval and phone assistance wait times, according to O’Malley.
“It would not add a single penny to the federal debt, because you already paid for it,” O’Malley said.
Moreover, experts contend raising the SSI’s asset thresholds — which have not been increased in about 40 years — could help beneficiaries achieve better financial security.

Two bills in Congress have proposed significant SSI reforms.
Democrats have proposed the Supplemental Security Income Restoration Act, which calls for increasing the program’s asset limits, setting the minimum benefit at 100% of the federal poverty level, streamlining the claiming process and getting rid of certain reductions in benefits.
Another bipartisan proposal — the SSI Savings Penalty Elimination Act — would increase the asset limits to $10,000 per individual and $20,000 per couple, up from $2,000 and $3,000, respectively. Consequently, it would eliminate the marriage penalty current beneficiaries face.
“There is clear momentum behind the SSI Savings Penalty Elimination Act,” Emerson Sprick, associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program, said at the NASI event.
The question is whether Congress can attach it to another legislative effort — perhaps related to spending — to get the proposed changes passed in the near future, he said.

Broader updates needed, advocates say

Advocates say further loosening the program’s current rules would have dramatic positive effects.
Under current limitations, at work, SSI beneficiaries may not be able to contribute to a 401(k) or earn raises. Students may not be able to take a paid internship for fear the income could affect their benefits, said Rylin Rodgers, disability policy advisor at Microsoft.
“In order to be successful, [we] need disabled workers in all job types,” Rodgers said.
“SSI, while critical, is at an influx point where in some cases it’s creating a block to that talent,” she said. 
Individuals who receive both Social Security and SSI benefits may see reductions to their payments. Loosening those rules would help lift more elderly and disabled individuals out of poverty, according to Wendell Primus, a visiting fellow at Brookings and former senior policy advisor on health and budget issues to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.
SSI benefit amounts could also be enhanced more broadly for all beneficiaries, said Tracey Gronniger, managing director for the economic security team at Justice in Aging, an advocacy group for fighting senior poverty.

“We need to increase the benefit level significantly … to at least the rate of poverty,” Gronniger said.
The poverty rate may also be improved by helping to increase SSI participation in underserved communities, particularly for people of color, she said.
While recent updates to food and housing policies will help, there is more room to update outdated policies that can interfere with access to benefits, said Jennifer Burdick, divisional supervising attorney at the SSI unit at Community Legal Services of Philadelphia.
“It’d be really great if Congress could just fix the bigger issues with the program so we wouldn’t have to look at other ways to try to come up with solutions to problems that Congress isn’t fixing,” Burdick said.
Correction: Emerson Sprick is associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program. An earlier version misstated part of his title.

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The hidden costs of homeownership add up to an average $18,118 annually, or $1,510 a month, according to a new report by Bankrate.com.
“It’s just important to understand that you’re buying a lot more than a mortgage payment,” said Jeff Ostrowski, an analyst at Bankrate.com.

Sturti | E+ | Getty Images

It’s no secret that buying a home has gotten more expensive in the U.S. But the cost of keeping and maintaining a home has gotten significantly pricier, too, which might come as a surprise to some buyers. 
The “hidden costs” of homeownership add up to an average $18,118 annually, or $1,510 a month, according to a new report by Bankrate.com. The national figure includes the average costs of property taxes, homeowners insurance, and electricity, internet and cable bills. It also includes home maintenance, which was estimated at 2% a year of the value of a home.

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The price tag of such hidden costs within a typical, single-family home in the U.S. is roughly 26% higher compared with four years ago, the report found. In 2020, the same expenses amounted to $14,428 annually, or $1,202 a month.
“It’s just important to understand that you’re buying a lot more than a mortgage payment,” said Jeff Ostrowski, an analyst at Bankrate.com. “You’re also buying all these additional costs that you’re gonna have to figure out how to pay for.”
The national median mortgage payment in April was $2,256, up $144 or 6.8% from a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Older homes can require more repairs

Out of all the expenses used to calculate the national average, maintenance and repair costs often surprise new homeowners more because of how much repair costs can vary, depending on the age of the home, experts say.

“Because of the lack of building, we know that homes that are being purchased are older,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.
“Homebuyers have to make a compromise along the way, and often it’s the age or the condition of the home,” she said.
While available supply on the market is increasing, many of those homes were built decades ago, according to the 2022 American Community Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau. The survey found that the median age of owner-occupied homes in the U.S. is about 40 years old.
A home around that age “may need system upgrades, so think about a new HVAC [heating, ventilation, and air conditioning] unit, or windows, or doors,” Lautz said.
A roof lasts about 30 years on average while vinyl siding may last three to four decades, according to Angi.com, an online marketplace that connects homeowners with professional contractors for home maintenance or renovations.
“Those are the kind of costs that can really add up quickly,” Ostrowski said.

For first-timers, repairs are ‘part of the learning process’

First-time homebuyers especially don’t realize the true cost of maintenance and repairs because such expenses are “part of the learning process of becoming a homeowner,” Ostrowski said.
“Once you’ve been a homeowner for a while, you realize everything that can go wrong,” he said. 

A mistake, however, is spending your entire reserve of savings for the down payment and ending up “house poor,” Ostrowski said.
“Then you move in, and you don’t really have any money left for repairs and maintenance, so you wind up running up credit card debt or taking out some kind of higher interest debt to pay for that,” he said.
In 2023, 46% of homeowners used cash from savings to cover home improvement projects, according to Angi.com. About 20% used credit cards, while 7% refinanced an existing loan and 5% used a home equity line of credit loan, the site found.

Don’t waive a home inspection

In the past few years, many homebuyers on the market waived home inspections, as competition among other buyers was high, said Ostrowski. In many cases, people who were already homeowners and could make cash offers were more likely to waive a home inspection.
“They’re not in the same sort of vulnerable position as a first-time buyer,” or somebody who’s never gone through the process, he said. 
Competition is still hot in some areas.
On average, there are three offers for every home that’s listed for sale, Lautz said.
In April, around 19% of buyers waived the home inspection, down from 22% one month prior and 21% a year earlier, according to NAR data.

But waiving the inspection is risky and not something to do lightly. An inspection is an important safeguard that can help you go into the purchase understanding some of the maintenance tasks and repairs that may be on the horizon.
Otherwise, it can be a factor that can inflate the ongoing costs after you close on a house, Ostrowski said.
“That definitely raises the risk of somebody moving into a house and not realizing that the [air conditioning] was about to go, or the water heater was on its last legs, or the roof needs to be replaced,” he said. More

If you’re living and working abroad and still need to file federal taxes for 2023, the deadline is June 17.
This extension applies if you live outside of the U.S. and Puerto Rico or serve in the military outside the country during the regular tax deadline.
However, American expats may have other reporting requirements, experts say.

Urbazon | E+ | Getty Images

If you’re living and working abroad and still need to file 2023 taxes, the deadline is only one week away.
While the regular tax deadline was April 15 for most taxpayers, there’s an automatic two-month extension to June 17 for those U.S. citizens and resident aliens, including dual citizens, who live outside the country.

There are two ways to qualify for the June 17 deadline, according to the IRS. You must live outside of the U.S. and Puerto Rico or serve in the military outside the country during the regular tax deadline.
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Although the two-month extension happens automatically, you must attach a statement to your return that explains which situation applies, according to the IRS.
Still, you’ll want to pay your balance due “as quickly as possible” because interest accrues after the original April 15 deadline, said Mike Wallace, CEO at Greenback Expat Tax Services.
The “fastest and easiest” ways to make payments are via an IRS Online Account, Direct Pay and the Electronic Federal Tax Payment System, according to the IRS. But there are additional payment options.

There’s still time to file for an extension

If you can’t meet the June 17 deadline, there’s still time to file for a tax extension, which provides an additional four months, said Rachel Martens, managing director at financial services firm CBIZ MHM.
You can request the four-month extension by filing Form 4868 by June 17, which bumps the filing due date to Oct. 15.

Other filing requirements for expats

In addition to income tax filings, some American expats face added reporting requirements. These requirements can be complicated and mistakes can be costly, experts say.
To that point, roughly 1 in 5 American expats don’t feel comfortable filing U.S. taxes while living abroad, according to a recent survey from Greenback Expat Tax Services.

For example, some expats also must report foreign bank accounts by filing the Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts, or FBAR, if the combined account value exceeds $10,000 any time during the year.
Some expats may also need to complete and attach Form 8938, once certain foreign assets exceed yearly thresholds, Martens explained.
Failing to file the FBAR or Form 8938 can trigger penalties of up to $10,000 or higher, depending on the situation, according to the IRS. More

While experts are forecasting more homes will be available, they said the boost in supply is not enough to solve affordability issues for buyers.
Interest rates are expected to come down, but not by enough to counteract high prices.
“It’s a very strange market, and it’s kind of hard to predict,” said Jeff Ostrowski, a housing analyst at Bankrate.com.

Experts are torn about where exactly the housing market is headed in the latter half of the year.
“Mostly, we think the housing market is going to improve over the next half of the year,” Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin, a real estate brokerage site, said on a May 22 appearance on CNBC’s “Money Movers.”

“We’ve hit rock bottom in the first quarter of 2024 and I would expect the housing market to do a little bit better,” Kelman said.
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Other experts are less sure about the market’s prospects for improvement.
“It’s a very strange market, and it’s kind of hard to predict,” said Jeff Ostrowski, a housing analyst at Bankrate.com.
Here are some of what Ostrowski, Kelman and other real estate experts say could shape the real estate market in the second half of 2024:

More homes are coming on the market

Simonskafar | E+ | Getty Images

The mortgage rate lock-in effect seems to be wearing off, said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow.
The mortgage rate lock-in effect, or the golden handcuff effect, kept any homeowners with extremely low mortgage rates from listing their homes last year as they didn’t want to finance a new home at a much higher interest rate. 
During the week ending June 1, newly listed homes grew 2.1% from a year ago, according to a weekly housing trends report by Realtor.com. In the same period, available inventory of homes for sale grew 35.5% compared with last year, Realtor.com found.
In his CNBC appearance, Kelman also pointed out that demand for homeownership remains high, especially among buyers who have been putting off the home purchase for a long time.
While the market is seeing more listings, the boost in supply is not enough to attract buyers, according to Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae.
“Listings have trended generally upward of late, suggesting to us that a rising number of current homeowners can no longer put off moving,” said Duncan in a release earlier this month. “However, we believe the ongoing affordability challenges are likely to weigh on how quickly these new listings convert to actual sales.”

‘Some movement’ on interest rates

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage slid 6.99% on June 6 after climbing 7.22% on May 20, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.
“Mortgage rates are down a bit from May highs, but that hasn’t spurred a surge of competition among buyers in the housing market,” Divounguy said.
Affordability remains a top priority for buyers and rates stayed above 7% for long.

Many experts believe the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates in the upcoming board meeting on June 12. However, the National Association of Realtors forecast a potential interest rate cut by the fall of this year, according to Jessica Lautz, the NAR’s deputy chief economist.
By late September, “perhaps we will start seeing movement on the Fed funds rate,” she said. “That’s at least what our hope is.”
While mortgage rates are forecasted to come down to 6.5% in the fourth quarter, homebuyers may not see much relief given rising home prices amid limited housing inventory, noted Lautz.
“It’s very possible that they’re ending up paying the same mortgage payment because they’re purchasing a home that while has a lower interest rate, has a higher price point,” she said.

‘It’s hard to foresee prices really cooling’

While the housing market has slowed in terms of the number of transactions, prices haven’t soften despite broader expectations, Ostrowski explained.
The median home sale price across the U.S. increased to $392,200, a 4.4% jump from a year earlier, according to Redfin.
“It’s hard to foresee prices really cooling or declining nationally,” said Ostrowski. “It seems likely we’re going to see another record high for home prices this summer.”

Some metropolitan areas in the U.S. have seen prices soften. Home-sale prices declined 2.9% in Austin and 1.2% in San Antonio and Fort Worth, Texas, according to Redfin data. Home prices cooled 0.9% in Portland, Oregon, the firm noted.
However, many of these areas saw major price growth during the Covid-19 pandemic, with prices jumping as much as 45%, said Lautz. Buyers might not see much relief in affordability despite recent price declines given those pandemic-era runups.
About 90% of metro markets posted home price gains in 2024, according to NAR data. While price points may be softening in some local markets, the “vast majority of markets are seeing home price growth,” said Lautz. More

Even as an estimated $84 trillion is poised to transfer from older to younger generations, many Americans worry they won’t achieve financial security in their elder years.
Wealth inequality has led to discussion of both a great wealth transfer and a retirement savings crisis.

Ascentxmedia | E+ | Getty Images

It can feel like the U.S. economy has divided consumers into groups of haves and have nots — and retirees are no exception.
Research has found a great wealth transfer is underway, with research and consulting firm Cerulli Associates estimating an $84 trillion to shift from older to younger generations through 2045. Yet other experts say a retirement savings crisis may be brewing for some who have not set aside enough for their elder years.

Both dynamics are at work, according to Chayce Horton, senior analyst at Cerulli.
“That wealth transfer is going to take place on a less-than-widespread basis,” Horton said.
“There’s been a significant amount of wealth that’s been created, and that wealth is concentrated in fewer and older hands than it has been in a long time,” he said.

Who stands to benefit from the great wealth transfer

Who may struggle in retirement

Covering the cost of retirement has gone up, as inflation has made health and long-term care in retirement more expensive. A 65-year-old single individual may need to have about $157,700 to pay for health-care costs in retirement, Fidelity estimated in 2023. An average 65-year-old retired couple would need about $315,000.
“Those costs have grown substantially to the point where a lot of people are going to die with nothing to pass on,” Horton said.
Those costs — combined with low retirement balances — have prompted some to say there is a retirement savings crisis underway.
A majority of Americans — 79% — said there is a retirement crisis, up from 67% in 2020, a recent survey from the National Institute on Retirement Security found. More than half (55%) said they are concerned they will not have financial security in retirement.

The average overall 401(k) balance was $125,900 in the first quarter, according to Fidelity Investments, with a record total savings rate of 14.2% including employee and employer contributions.
Yet those numbers do not include the roughly half of Americans who do not have access to workplace retirement savings accounts.
To force everyone to save, mandatory savings plans that require participation from all individuals may be the answer, Teresa Ghilarducci, professor of economics at The New School for Social Research, said in a Thursday interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“We know that the most important financial power in our markets is the power of compound interest,” said Ghilarducci, author of the book, “Work, Retire, Repeat: The Uncertainty of Retirement in the New Economy.”
“Getting people in early into a pension plan is the only way they can have enough savings at the end of their working lives to supplement their Social Security,” she said.
Data shows a forced savings approach works, said Ed Murphy, president and CEO of financial services provider Empower. For those who earn $35,000 to $50,000 who do not have a workplace retirement savings plan, they’re likely not saving anything.
Once members of that cohort have access to workplace savings through a payroll deduction, up to 90% will save, he explained.
“We’ve got to get more people saving through the workplace,” Murphy said. ” It’s just the most effective means to get people to save.”

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A shopper carries Burlington bags in New York, US, on Monday, Nov. 20, 2023. Burlington Stores Inc. is scheduled to release earnings figures on November 21.
Stephanie Keith | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The debate around when the Federal Reserve will start to lower interest rates continues to influence market sentiment. Investors are interpreting important macroeconomic data, including jobs market reports, to decipher the current state of the U.S. economy.  
At the same time, Wall Street analysts continue to focus on picking individual stocks that can thrive even in the face of short-term pressures and deliver attractive, long-term returns.

Here are three stocks favored by the Street’s top pros, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.
Burlington Stores
Off-price retailer Burlington Stores (BURL) is this week’s first pick. The company impressed investors with its upbeat results for the first quarter of fiscal 2024 (ended May 4) and raised its profit margin and earnings outlook for the full year.
In reaction to the Q1 results, Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe reaffirmed a buy rating on BURL and increased the price target to $275 from $260. The analyst is confident about the retailer’s ability to deliver robust comparable sales growth.
Tarlowe noted that the expansion in Burlington Stores’ gross and operating margins helped drive better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter. The analyst also highlighted the New Jersey-based company’s well-managed inventory levels.
“BURL is the smallest and least-profitable of the major off-price retailers, and we believe that it has a significant top-line and margin runway ahead that is not yet fully factored into estimates,” said Tarlowe.

Tarlowe expects BURL to gain from customers’ migration to off-price retailers from department stores, which were hit hard by the Covid pandemic. The retailer operated 1,021 stores as of the end of Q1 fiscal 2024 and plans to open about 100 new stores this year. The analyst expects BURL to expand its footprint to 2,000 stores over time. 
Tarlowe ranks No. 291 among more than 8,800 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 67% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 18.9%. (See Burlington Stores Stock Charts on TipRanks) 
Amazon
E-commerce and cloud computing company Amazon (AMZN) is also a top pick. The company delivered solid first-quarter earnings despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The company’s bottom line gained from strong revenue growth and cost-cutting measures.
Recently, Tigress Financial analyst Ivan Feinseth reiterated a buy rating on AMZN and increased his price target to $245 from $210, citing generative artificial intelligence-related tailwinds, multi-industry leadership position and impressive brand equity.
The analyst noted that businesses are increasingly adopting generative AI to boost operating efficiency and enhance competitiveness, driving profits at Amazon Web Services (AWS). He expects AWS to see a continued rise in the number of large language models (LLM) built on its platform, thanks to its “superior operating performance, security, and industry-leading capabilities.”
Feinseth highlighted Amazon’s other strengths, including continued efforts to expand Prime membership benefits, increase grocery sales, grow its digital advertising business and continue to innovate. Moreover, AMZN’s solid balance sheet and cash flows enable it to make investments in strategic deals and growth initiatives.
Feinseth ranks No. 242 among more than 8,800 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 60% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 12.2%. (See Amazon Technical Analysis on TipRanks) 
PagerDuty
Finally, there’s PagerDuty (PD), a digital operations management platform. The company reported mixed results in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended April 30). Adjusted earnings per share topped analyst expectations, while revenue slightly missed estimates. The company highlighted that it was profitable on a non-GAAP basis for a seventh consecutive quarter.
Following the Q1 print, RBC Capital analyst Matthew Hedberg reiterated a buy rating on PagerDuty with a price target of $27, saying, “We feel slightly better about the potential for 2H/25 acceleration despite tough macros.”
The analyst highlighted the 10% growth in the company’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) and an 11% rise in billings. In particular, he noted that ARR growth was steady at 10% for the second consecutive quarter. Management projects ARR growth to accelerate in the second half of Fiscal 2025, given traction in multi-year deals.
Hedberg thinks that there is better pipeline visibility into the second half of fiscal 2025, backed by momentum in multi-product and multi-quarter deals. He is also encouraged by the opportunities that PagerDuty is seeing in its federal business. Notably, the company secured an Authority to Operate (ATO) from the Department of Veteran Affairs and closed its first seven-figure deal in the public sector.
Hedberg ranks No. 565 among more than 8,800 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 52% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 9.7%. (See PagerDuty Financial Statements on TipRanks)  More

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, or TCJA, temporarily reduced taxes for most Americans.
Many of those tax breaks will expire after 2025 without changes from Congress.
Former President Donald Trump wants to extend all TCJA provisions, while President Joe Biden aims to extend tax breaks for taxpayers under the $400,000 threshold, which is most Americans.
However, there are lingering questions about how to pay for TCJA extensions amid the federal budget deficit. 

Joe Biden and Donald Trump 2024.
Chip Somodevilla | Alex Wong | Getty Images

Trillions in expiring tax breaks are at stake this election season — and those sunsets could raise taxes for most Americans after 2025 without extensions from Congress.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, or TCJA, temporarily reduced taxes for most Americans with lower federal income brackets, a higher standard deduction and a more generous child tax credit, among other provisions.  

It’s a key issue for presumptive nominees President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who have both addressed the 2025 tax cliff.
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Trump wants to extend all TCJA provisions, and Biden aims to extend tax breaks for taxpayers whose income is under the $400,000 threshold, which is most Americans.  
“For 95% of taxpayers, they both want to do the same thing,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

For 95% of taxpayers, they both want to do the same thing.

Howard Gleckman
Senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center

Of course, future legislative updates, if any, will depend on which party controls Congress.

Lower federal income tax brackets

One expiring TCJA provision is lower federal income tax brackets, which “reduced rates across the board,” said Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation.
Without an extension, the individual rates will increase after 2025, returning to 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, 35% and 39.6%.
Biden’s fiscal year 2025 budget called for the 39.6% rate to apply to single filers making more than $400,000 and married couples earning above $450,000 per year.

A related expiration is the higher standard deduction, which sharply reduced the percentage of filers who itemized.
The percentage of filers claiming the standard deduction jumped to 90% in 2020 from 70% in 2017 before the TCJA, according to the Tax Policy Center.
If the standard deduction reverted to pre-TCJA levels, more filers could claim itemized tax breaks for charitable gifts, medical expenses, state and local taxes and more.   

More generous child tax credit

Another expiring TCJA provision is the bigger child tax credit, which some lawmakers have fought to expand in 2024. The TCJA doubled the maximum child tax credit to $2,000, boosted the refundable portion to $1,400 and expanded eligibility.
Biden has called for an expansion, but there have been debates in Congress over the child tax credit design, including the amount, eligibility and refundability, said Gleckman.

Consumers pay for higher tariffs

One of the few tax policy details released by the Trump campaign has been proposed tariffs, or taxes levied on imported goods from other countries, some of which Biden has also supported.
“Directionally, they’re the same on tariffs on China,” Gleckman said, noting that Biden maintained some of Trump’s tariffs and unveiled new ones in May.
Trump wants a 10% universal baseline tariff on all U.S. imports and a levy of 60% or higher on Chinese goods. By comparison, Biden aims for more targeted tariffs.
However, “all evidence points to consumers paying the additional price” for tariffs, Watson said.

Funding extensions amid the budget deficit

As 2025 approaches, there are lingering questions about how to pay for TCJA extensions, particularly amid the federal budget deficit. 
Fully extending the TCJA tax breaks could add an estimated $4.6 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Biden’s top economic advisor, Lael Brainard, has called for higher taxes on the ultra-wealthy and corporations to help fund the extensions for middle-class Americans.  

“Achieving a fairer tax system also means we can’t extend expiring Trump tax cuts for those with incomes above $400,000,” she said during a speech to The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution in May.
While Trump has proposed tariffs, the campaign hasn’t specifically addressed plans to fund TCJA extensions. More