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Although the economy is doing well, Americans are listening to “recession pop” again.
“The era of the Katy Perry banger” may be providing some much-needed escapism for young adults struggling to get by, a forensic musicologist says.
“We’re feeling very, very negative about the state of our own finances … but this music offers a glimmer of fun,” says Casey Lewis, a social media trend expert.

Taylor Swift performs during “Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour” at the National Stadium on March 02, 2024 in Singapore. 
Ashok Kumar | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

In good times and in bad, pop music reflects the world around us.
Although now that times are seemingly good — data shows the economy is expanding and unemployment is low — recent hits paint a different picture.

On Taylor Swift’s latest double album, “The Tortured Poets Department,” one line in her song “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” deeply resonated with listeners: “I cry a lot, but I am so productive, it’s an art.”
Beyoncé, who has referenced worker burnout before, also tapped into the recent malaise in her “Cowboy Carter” album: “Hardworkin’ men ain’t got no money in the bank,” she sings in “Ya Ya.”
Even 2024’s viral TikTok hit, “I’m looking for a man in finance,” captures some of the feelings of frustration and financial vulnerability that are increasingly widespread.
More from Personal Finance:Some couples are having ‘micro weddings’‘I’m looking for a man in finance’‘I cry a lot but I am so productive, it’s an art’ 
Economists have wrestled with the growing disconnect between how the economy is doing and how people feel about their financial standing.

We’re in a “vibecession,” experts say. On TikTok, some have gone a step further, even summing up the current mood as a “silent depression.”
If popular music is any guide, there has been a return to the songs of about 16 years ago that became known as “recession pop.”
“We’re feeling very, very negative about the state of our own finances … but this music offers a glimmer of fun,” says Casey Lewis, a social media trend expert and founder of trend newsletter After School.

What is recession pop?

Recession pop largely refers to the body of music that emerged during the Great Recession, which started in late 2007 and lasted for 18 months.
The recession pop trend is a “curatorial act,” said Charlie Harding, co-author of “Switched On Pop: How Popular Music Works and Why it Matters” and music adjunct professor at New York University Steinhardt School of Culture, Education and Human Development.
“It’s a trend of people trying to make sense of a thing that happened to us that was senseless,” said Harding. “There was a bunch of songs that became the soundtrack of that era.”
Contrary to the country’s economic standing at the time, Joe Bennett, a professor at Berklee College of Music and forensic musicologist specializing in the analysis of popular music and songwriting, refers to this period as “the era of the Katy Perry banger.”
“I think about the 2008 recession and the music that was taking over the radio waves at that point. It’s a lot of Katy Perry, and a lot of hyper, very fast music,” said Lewis. “It’s very dance pop.”

Recording artist Katy Perry performs onstage during the Pepsi Super Bowl XLIX Halftime Show at University of Phoenix Stadium, now known as State Farm Stadium, in Glendale, Arizona, on Feb. 1, 2015.
Kevin Mazur | WireImage | Getty Images

The songs that dominated the charts — also including The Black Eyed Pea’s “I Gotta Feeling” and Kesha’s “Tik Tok” — were “party anthems,” Bennett said. “It was all about dancing and having a good time, in contrast to the actual economic circumstances.”
“They were feel-good songs to get us out of a difficult time and they were the medicine we needed,” Bennett said.
Since the Great Depression in the 1930s, consumers have shown a preference for happier songs during periods of economic uncertainty, according to Diane Negra, professor of film studies and screen culture at University College Dublin.
“There’s that cliché that music is faster and more upbeat and consoling in difficult times,” she said.
Music can mimic and respond to major trends, and a great example is the 1980s, according to Harding. The period of high inflation and economic downturn was also a time when subgenres like house and techno emerged.
“The thing about the Great Recession and larger economic shifts is that they do potentially touch all people, but they don’t touch people equally,” said Harding, who mentioned the development of hip hop and country, in addition to other genres that speak to economic woes experienced by different groups.

Why is recession pop having a renaissance?

Now, Americans are returning to those escapist hits from over a decade ago. In a July 19 Google Trends email, analysts noted that searches for the term “recession pop” had reached an all-time high, with Katy Perry and Charli XCX as the top trending related artists.
Search interest in Katy Perry first spiked in 2008, during the last U.S. recession, Google noted.
But today’s economy is much different than those days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is hitting record levels. Americans’ consumer confidence has only just started to slow after years of contending with sticky inflation. And the unemployment rate has spent 30 months at or below 4% — a near record.
However, regardless of the country’s economic standing, Americans are feeling the pain of higher prices, with various reports showing many have exhausted their savings and are now leaning on credit cards to make ends meet.
“There’s a bit of a disconnect between how the economy is actually doing and how young people feel financially,” Lewis said. “It hurts to see an economist say, ‘Actually, things are better than ever.’ That tension has given way to recession pop.”

Several reports show financial well-being is deteriorating and young adults, especially, are struggling.
“You have a particularly fraught relationship to capitalism right now,” Negra said. “Power and resources are hoarded in older generations and the way younger people are avoiding financially calamity is by being dependent on their parents.”
More than half — 52% — of Generation Z between the ages of 18 and 27 said they don’t make enough money to live the life they want, according to a recent report from Bank of America. And nearly as many rely on financial assistance from their family, most notably for food and rent.
“The resurgence of recession pop that we’re seeing right now, it reflects young people specifically, their societal struggles, their distrust of corporations and the sort of economy that they’ve inherited in many ways,” said Lewis.

The present political and economic terrain motivates various kinds of escapism.

Diane Negra
professor of film studies and screen culture at University College Dublin

In the years since the Covid pandemic, homeownership has been one of the greatest tools of wealth creation — and those who have been priced out of the housing market have disproportionately struggled to achieve the same level of financial security, according to Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School.
“That is a massive challenge for wealth accumulation among Gen Z,” he recently told CNBC, and one which shows no signs of improvement.
Housing prices — and mortgage rates — have remained stubbornly high even as inflation in the broader economy has cooled significantly from peak levels. There is a low supply of houses for sale and far fewer affordable starter homes.
Today’s newly minted adults are “wanting to feel or create the conditions of crisis when the society is saying there is no crisis,” Negra said.
Hence, the recession pop revival.
“The present political and economic terrain motivates various kinds of escapism, and recession pop is one form of that,” Negra said.

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Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images

The stock market is in a rough patch as of late while investors grapple with macro pressures, upcoming elections and geopolitical tensions.
However, investors and their portfolios can hold up in the tumult – if they’re able to ignore the short-term noise and choose stocks with attractive return prospects over the long term.

In this regard, the ratings of top Wall Street analysts and their investment theses can provide useful insights and help us make the right decisions.
Bearing that in mind, here are three stocks favored by the Street’s top pros, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.
Costco Wholesale
Membership-only warehouse chain Costco Wholesale (COST) is this week’s first pick. The company recently reported its June sales and announced an increase in its membership fee. Costco is increasing the annual fee for its “Gold Star” membership by $5 to $65, effective Sept. 1. Moreover, the fee for the premium “Executive Membership” will now cost $130, up from $120.
Reacting to Costco’s first membership hike since June 2017, Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe reiterated a buy rating on COST stock and boosted the price target to $1,050 from $860, saying the stock remains a top pick. The analyst thinks the membership hike is a favorable catalyst for the stock and the company’s earnings.
Tarlowe noted that in the past, Costco has hiked its membership fees every 5.5 years, on average. However, this time, the retailer increased the fee after a seven-year gap. He thinks that the timing of the fee hike is good, given the consistent membership health the company is experiencing and strong June numbers.

“Historically, COST has not experienced a significant impact on membership trends when fees are increased, so we think the impact will be muted,” said Tarlowe.
The analyst expects the higher fee to enhance sales and earnings before interest and taxes, as membership fee accounts for a substantial portion of Costco’s consistently increasing operating profit. He estimates a potential benefit of nearly 3% to the company’s earnings per share over each of the next two years.
Tarlowe ranks No. 321 among more than 8,900 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 67% of the time, delivering an average return of 18.8%. (See Costco Dividends on TipRanks)  
MongoDB
Next up is the database software company MongoDB (MDB). The stock plunged in May after the company announced weak guidance for the fiscal second quarter and lowered its full-year outlook. MongoDB blamed a slower-than-expected start to the year for both new workload wins and the consumption growth of its cloud-based database software offering Atlas.
Tigress Financial analyst Ivan Feinseth recently lowered the price target on MDB stock to $400 from $500 to reflect the near-term pressures but reaffirmed a buy rating, as he views the sell-off in the stock as a good buying opportunity.
Despite the weak start to the year, Feinseth is bullish on MongoDB, as the company continues to gain traction among developers. He also mentioned the growing momentum for MDB’s Atlas DBaaS (database as a service) product.
He expects the company to benefit from the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into its offerings. “MDB’s incorporation of new AI-powered capabilities improves developer productivity, accelerates application development, and accelerates its rapid enterprise adoption trends,” said Feinseth.
The analyst also highlighted the company’s expansion into other major verticals, such as health care, insurance, manufacturing and automotive production. He is optimistic about the prospects of MDB’s solid DBaaS platform, given its superior functionality and cost advantages compared to traditional database solutions.
Feinseth ranks No. 191 among more than 8,900 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 62% of the time, delivering an average return of 13.6%. (See MongoDB Stock Buybacks on TipRanks)  
Nvidia
Semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) is this week’s third pick. The generative artificial intelligence wave has significantly increased the demand for the company’s advanced graphics processing units. Even after the stock’s impressive year-to-date rally, Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari thinks that it has more room to run.
Following a meeting with Nvidia’s CFO Colette Kress, Hari reiterated a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $135. The analyst said that the meeting bolstered his “belief in the sustainability of the ongoing Gen AI spending cycle.” The meeting also reassured the analyst about NVDA’s potential to maintain its dominance through robust innovation across compute, networking and software.
Commenting on Nvidia’s next-generation AI graphics processor, Blackwell, the analyst reported that the CFO had said the company’s key suppliers are better positioned for the Blackwell ramp than the previous generational transitions. Hari expects notable revenue contribution from the Blackwell platform in Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26, but he sees limited contribution in Q3 FY25.
The analyst is confident that despite rising competition, Nvidia will continue to maintain its leadership position based on several factors, like a large installed base and better access to supply. Moreover, the rapid speed at which large enterprises and cloud service providers are building and deploying generative AI models gives Nvidia an edge over competitors who are still developing advanced AI GPUs.
Hari ranks No. 30 among more than 8,900 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 69% of the time, delivering an average return of 30.2%. (See Nvidia Options Activity on TipRanks)   More

The Match dating application is displayed on an Apple iPhone.
Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Company: Match Group (MTCH)

Business: Match Group provides dating products worldwide. The company’s portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Match, The League, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge and PlentyOfFish. Match’s services are available in over 40 languages to users all over the world.
Stock Market Value: $9.21B ($34.67 per share)

Activist: Starboard Value

Percentage Ownership: 6.64%
Average Cost: $33.55
Activist Commentary: Starboard is a very successful activist investor and has extensive experience helping companies focus on operational efficiency and margin improvement. Starboard has taken a total of 151 activist campaigns in its history and has an average return of 25.46% versus 13.61% for the Russell 2000 over the same period. In 46 of these situations, Starboard had an operational thesis as part of its activist campaign, and the firm made an average return of 43.89% versus 15.83% for the Russell 2000 over the same period.

What’s happening

On July 15, Starboard sent a letter to Match highlighting various opportunities to improve operations, financial results and capital allocation. This includes optimizing Tinder through product innovation, cutting costs and improving margins, as well as implementing an aggressive and systematic capital return program. Another possibility is to take the company private.
Match Group is by far the global leader in online dating apps with over 45 brands, the most notable of which are Tinder and Hinge. Tinder is the most downloaded dating app in the world. It accounted for over 55% of the company’s revenue at approximately $1.9 billion in 2023, has nearly 10 million paying users and over 50% earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margins. Hinge accounted for $400 million of the company’s revenue and has been growing at over 100% per year. This is a market-leading company with powerful network effects, significant revenue growth (from $2 billion in 2019 to an expected $3.6 billion this year), and an asset-light operating model, generating revenue through subscriptions. However, its stock price performance compared to peers and the broader market has been abysmal, with the stock down nearly 70% since the company’s separation from IAC in July 2020. In addition, Match trades at 8.3-times price/CY24E free-cash-flow multiple compared to a median 14.7-times for moderate growth, high recurring revenue technology companies

While Starboard’s engagement at Match has been reported by mainstream media as a “sell the company” campaign, it is much more thoughtful and complex than that. It’s more of an operational engagement, at least as Plan A. The main issue here is that revenue growth has slowed from 20% to an expected 5.7% in 2024, but the company has continually increased spending to try and chase its former high-growth profile. Starboard points out that there is nothing wrong with spending if executed well, but the money spent on customer acquisition and product development has simply not materialized in improved growth at Match. But Starboard thinks that this management team can get revenue growth back to double digits through innovation and that CEO Bernard Kim’s experience in the gaming industry and as interim CEO of Tinder could lead to meaningful product improvements. If management is unable to increase growth back to double digits, it will have to take a hard look at its expenses and focus on margin improvement. Match’s EBITDA margin of 36% may be high for an average company, but it’s low for a company like Match. But what is even more telling is that Match’s 2019-2024 cumulative incremental adjusted EBITDA margin is 33.5%, which is less than its actual adjusted EBITDA margin in every year during that time period (35.5% – 38%), showing that the company is spending way too much for the level of revenue growth it is getting. Starboard finds this unacceptable and points out that almost every company, especially internet companies, should have significant operating leverage evidenced by incremental margins that are substantially higher than consolidated margins. The firm expects that incremental margins for Match could be as high as 50% and consolidated adjusted operating margins could be above 40%, a target the company has itself referenced.
In addition, Starboard is urging management to repurchase shares. While financial activism like a share buyback is not a well-received strategy on its own, it is regularly used to create shareholder value in conjunction with a more complex operational plan like Starboard offers here. Starboard thinks that there is no better use of cash for the company than to buy back stock at the price it is trading now, ahead of any operational improvements that could lift the share price. Match does not necessarily disagree, as it has already committed to using 75% of free cash flow for share repurchases this year. Starboard would like the company to use the $900 million of available capacity under its net leverage target in addition to the 75% of free cash flow to buy back shares. Between a reduced share count and operational improvements, the firm thinks Match can generate $5.50 or more of free cash flow per share in 2026.
If management cannot create shareholder value through increasing revenue growth, and they fail to rein in costs and improve operating margins, Starboard thinks they must keep an open mind and fully understand the potential value creation opportunity available through a sale of the company and compare the alternatives on a risk-adjusted basis. Starboard thinks that this is a highly valuable asset that may be well-suited to operate as a private company.
Starboard often does its best activism from a board level and we would expect to see the firm looking for a seat here. While Match’s director nomination window does not open until Feb. 21, 2025, don’t let that fool you. Starboard will likely be talking to the company about a board seat well before then and could get invited on to the board sooner. While activists like Starboard’s Jeff Smith are often feared by boards, it has been our experience that when boards get to know him, they see how constructive he can be and grow to respect him. That is relevant here because the chairman of Match’s board since May 2021, Thomas McInerney, was a director and CEO of Altaba (the successor company to Yahoo) during the period from April 2016 to June 2017 when Smith served on the Yahoo board. If this does not settle quickly and amicably, Starboard will have seven months to weigh its next move, allowing the activist to observe the company’s operating performance in the back half of 2024 before it makes a decision.
Starboard is not the first activist to launch a public campaign at Match. Since the beginning of the year, the company has also attracted the attention of Elliott Management and Anson Funds. This is something you rarely saw 10 to 15 years ago, but it has become quite frequent today – multiple activists launching campaigns at the same company. The positives to this are that it is a very strong indication that the company is undervalued and there is a path to fix this undervaluation. It may also indicate a higher likelihood of some activist success. The negative is that it gives the company the ability to choose which activist it will work with and makes it much harder for one of the other activists to get any traction. Further, often management will choose the one looking for the least change. In this case, Match has already settled with Elliott for two board seats and might use that as a reason not to appoint any other shareholder representatives to the board. But we do not see that as a major obstacle for Starboard due to the firm’s experience, the tenor of the campaign so far and the fact that Match did not previously appoint an Elliott executive to the board.
Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional research service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio manager of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments. More

EA said that every player who opted in to appearing in the game received a minimum of $600 along with a copy of the game.
This is the first major college sports game of any kind released since 2013.
The changes to the video game also reflect some massive shifts in college football itself, including the advent of the College Football Playoff.

EA Sports College Football 25. 
Courtesy: EA Sports

The 2024 football season officially starts this weekend for many fans, as Electronic Arts rolls out a long-awaited revamp of its college football game. Some fans of the old game who have spent less time with their XBox and PlayStation in recent years are quickly realizing they’ve got a lot of practicing to do.
“I was watching some of the videos and the gameplay, and it’s all these different elements. We’re going from a flip phone to an iPhone, is literally how the game has changed so much,” said Anthony Bencomo, a 47-year old corporate recruiter and owner of Deli Fresh Threads clothing brand in Orlando.

Bencomo isn’t the only one who is being drawn back into gaming by EA Sports College Football 25. Bill Long, a 31-year-old accountant in Sacramento, has been recruiting gamers through social media into an online league for those roughly 30 and up, with the idea being that some of his peers might be a bit rusty.
“I knew there was a large population that were going to be like, ‘Hey, I don’t want to be in with all the younger kids that know what they’re doing,'” said Long, who also hosts a sports podcast and streams on Twitch.
The game officially debuted on Friday, though many players who bought the deluxe version were trying it out all week. EA said that more than 2 million users played the game early. Third-party data like GameStop’s best-seller list and early Twitch viewership indicate the game could have a strong launch.
This is the first major college sports game of any kind released since 2013.
“I definitely think there’s some pent-up demand,” said Eric Handler, a senior research analyst at Roth MKM.

A new era

The college football game, previously titled NCAA Football, was typically a smaller product for EA, at least compared to titles like Madden.
But its popularity has endured over the years, with used copies of NCAA Football 14 becoming valuable items for trade in and resale. Lucas Dolengowski, a 31-year-old social media director from Madison, Alabama, said he went looking for a copy of the game he used to play in college around the time of the Covid pandemic but got spooked by the price.
“I was definitely looking to just get an older XBox and then just buy the game to be able to play it. But the games were going for like $100 on eBay,” said Dolengowski, who has since bought the deluxe version of the new game.

EA Sports College Football 25. 
Courtesy: EA Sports

Bencomo said that he held onto his 2013 copy of the game, but traded in the 2014 one to help buy a gaming system for his daughter. He said he plans to buy and play the new game, but finding the time could be a bit tricky, even with his family encouraging him to dive back in.
“In this timeframe that’s happened, I’ve adulted and I have a life,” Bencomo said.
Beyond the gameplay, the changes to the video game also reflect some massive shifts in college football itself, including the advent of the College Football Playoff.
The financials behind the game also have a major change. A decade ago, college football players had strict restrictions around making money outside of their scholarship. Since then, a series of legal cases has allowed for payment for what is called name, image and likeness rights, or NIL.
EA said that every player who opted in to appearing in the game received a minimum of $600 along with a copy of the game. Some of the football players and other college athletes were also signed as ambassadors to help promote the game.
In the old versions, the players were simply labeled with fake names or numbers, unless the gamers found an off-the-books workaround.
“I would actually buy a memory card and mail it to someone, and they would put the names in,” Bencomo said.

EA Sports College Football 25. 
Courtesy: EA Sports

What’s next

Whether the old and new fans of the College Football game make it a success for EA is still to be determined. The game could exceed the estimates of around 3 million units sold that some analysts have penciled in and still end up roughly half as big as Madden. Stifel analyst Drew Crum said in a July 16 note that the game could sell more than 4 million units, but with limited in-game monetization, which has become increasingly important to game publishers in recent years.
And given the fact that both are football games, the impact on EA’s Madden franchise remains to be seen, said Douglas Creutz, an analyst at TD Securities.
“It’s still unclear how many units might come out of Madden and go to NCAA Football. There might be some cannibalization,” Creutz said.
EA has not announced if the college football game will become an annual launch, so gamers may need to savor this new version for awhile. But the nostalgia factor is clearly working in the game’s favor.
“It’s pretty cool seeing that there’s guys 30-plus out there, because that’s kind of the sweet spot of 2003 to 2007. A lot of the new gamers weren’t born or barely even playing back then,” Long said. More

Project 2025, a collection of policy proposals “for an effective conservative administration,” outlines sweeping tax law and IRS changes.
The plan calls for a two-tier tax system, lower capital gains taxes, IRS budget cuts and scrutiny of tax reporting. By contrast, Trump hasn’t outlined detailed tax policy proposals.
Some Project 2025 plans could be enacted via executive action, but many tax policy proposals would require legislation, which could be difficult without Republican control of Congress.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump applauds on Day 2 of the Republican National Convention (RNC), at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., July 16, 2024.
Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

As former President Donald Trump secures the Republican presidential nomination, both political parties are eyeing Project 2025, a multi-pronged policy plan created by conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation as a collective effort with more than 100 other right-leaning organizations.
If enacted, the plan could overhaul the U.S. income tax system and revamp the IRS, among other changes.

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The roughly 900-page “Mandate for Leadership” calls for sweeping changes to the federal government and policy recommendations for the next administration. The Heritage Foundation launched the project in 2022 and published the policy collection in April 2023.
President Joe Biden and Democrats have framed the initiative as a preview of a second term from Trump. On a website dedicated to Project 2025, the Biden campaign describes the plan as a “blueprint for Trump.”
Meanwhile, Trump has made statements to distance himself from the mandate.
“I know nothing about Project 2025. I have not seen it, have no idea who is in charge of it, and, unlike our very well received Republican Platform, had nothing to do with it,” Trump wrote on July 11 in a Truth Social post.

However, several former Trump officials have been directly affiliated with Project 2025 and Trump praised the Heritage Foundation in April 2022 in a recently resurfaced video.
“As President Trump said, he has nothing to do with Project 2025,” said Steven Cheung, a spokesman for the Trump campaign. “The only official policy approved by President Trump is the GOP Party Platform found on his website.”
A spokesperson for the Heritage Foundation said the organization was unable to provide a statement. Earlier this month, the group told CNBC: “As we’ve been saying for more than two years now, Project 2025 does not speak for any candidate or campaign. We are a coalition of more than 110 conservative groups advocating policy and personnel recommendations for the next conservative president.”
“But it is ultimately up to that president, who we believe will be President Trump, to decide which recommendations to implement,” the organization said.

Some Project 2025 plans could be enacted via executive action, but many tax policy proposals would require legislation, which could be difficult without Republican control of Congress.
Here’s what the proposed policies could mean for taxes and the IRS.

Reduce the federal tax brackets

Project 2025 aims to “promote prosperity” by reducing marginal tax rates, lowering the cost of capital and broadening the tax base.
The plan departs from the current federal income tax brackets with a “simple two-rate individual tax system” with flat rates of 15% and 30%. The higher tier would start around the Social Security wage base, which is $168,600 for 2024.
For 2024, there are seven brackets with a top rate of 37%. But without action from Congress, some of these rates will increase after 2025 once provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, sunset.

Under the Project 2025 proposal, you could pay more or less in federal income taxes, depending on your current bracket, according to Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
The plan would also eliminate “most deductions, credits and exclusions,” including tax breaks for state and local taxes and education.
However, most Americans don’t claim itemized deductions, Gleckman said. Nearly 90% of filers claimed the standard deduction in 2021, the most recent data available, compared to about 70% in 2017 before the TCJA was enacted, according to IRS data.
The “fundamental reform” outlined in the project could include some type of consumption tax, levied on goods and services, such as a national sales tax, business transfer tax or others.
But these policies could be “quite the battle to get enacted” in Congress, said Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation.  

Prasit Photo | Moment | Getty Images

Lower taxes on investment income

The plan also proposes lower taxes on investments for higher earners with capital gains and qualified dividends levied at 15%. Currently, the top rate for long-term capital gains, or assets owned for more than one year, is 20%.

Plus, Project 2025 would abolish the so-called net investment income tax, or NIIT, an extra 3.8% levy on assets for higher earners. The NIIT kicks in once modified adjusted gross income, or MAGI, exceeds $200,000 for single filers or $250,000 for married couples filing together.
Top earners currently pay a combined 23.8% on capital gains including the NIIT, so the proposed tax breaks could be a “big deal” for higher-income investors, Gleckman said.

Reduced estate and gift taxes

Higher estate and gift tax exemptions enacted via the TCJA are scheduled to sunset after 2025. But the plan calls for making the 2017 TCJA changes permanent and reducing the estate and gift tax rate to a maximum of 20%, down from 40%.
Fewer than 1% of taxpayers were subject to estate tax in 2023, according to Tax Policy Center estimates.
“If you’re one of those people, your heirs would be very happy with this proposal,” Gleckman said.

The ‘debate’ over U.S. tariffs

Project 2025 also includes a “debate” on conservative trade policy, including opposing views on tariffs, which are taxes levied on imported goods from another country.
On one side, former White House trade advisor Peter Navarro, who served under Trump, supports U.S. tariffs, including a reciprocal levy, which Trump called for during his 2019 State of the Union address. By contrast, the project notes, Competitive Enterprise Institute president Kent Lassman wrote the U.S. should lower or repeal tariffs to make American goods more affordable.
While Trump says he hasn’t heard of Project 2025, he’s talking about the issue of tariffs a lot, Gleckman said.
Trump has called for a baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a levy of 60% or higher on Chinese goods. He also floated the idea of an “all tariff policy” to replace federal income taxes in a June meeting with Republican lawmakers. 
However, past U.S. tariffs were mostly borne by U.S. companies and consumers, according to a 2020 working paper from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Columbia University and Princeton University.   

IRS plans could have ‘direct taxpayer impacts’

Project 2025 also proposes changes to “reduce the intrusiveness and increase the accountability” of the IRS.
If enacted, these plans could have “direct taxpayer impacts,” according to Watson.
The agency has faced increased scrutiny from Republicans, particularly after Congress approved nearly $80 billion in IRS funding via the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

The plan calls for agency budget cuts — a priority for some Republicans — and, in contrast, at least 20% higher resources for the Office of the Taxpayer Advocate, an independent organization within the IRS.
“Congress should provide the Office of the Taxpayer Advocate with greater resources so that it may better assist taxpayers suffering from wrongful IRS actions,” Project 2025 authors wrote.
There are also proposals to increase the number of presidential appointees, focus on technology and undertake a “serious review” of so-called information reporting, or tax forms sent to the agency by employers and financial institutions. More

Airlines grounded flights and passengers were delayed after a global IT outage Friday morning.
A failed tech update by cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike impacted Microsoft services used by airlines like American, Delta and United.
Travelers whose flights were delayed or canceled may be able to get some money back.
Financial compensation will largely depend on specific airline policy, and whether the tech malfunction is deemed a “controllable” event by the airline.

Travelers wait in line at a Delta Airlines counter at Ronald Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, on July 19, 2024. Airlines around the world experienced disruption on an unprecedented scale after a widespread global computer outage grounded planes and created chaos at airports.
Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Major airlines like United, Delta and American Airlines grounded flights Friday morning amid a global IT outage impacting their operations, triggering delays for travelers.
“You can imagine the mass chaos unfolding everywhere,” said Eric Napoli, chief legal officer at AirHelp, which helps fliers claim compensation for delayed or canceled flights.

“Any kind of shutdown, the bottleneck [it has] on so many flights is incredible,” he added.

Passengers impacted by flight disruptions may be entitled to a refund, hotel or meal voucher or other remuneration.
But it largely depends on the airline, travel experts said.
“There is this kind of gray area where we’re at the mercy of what the airline’s policy is,” Napoli said.
Experts are also divided as to whether the outage constitutes an event within or outside of airlines’ control — an important factor in determining whether a customer is entitled to any sort of financial compensation.

What to know about airlines’ financial duty

There’s really only one guarantee about an airline’s financial duty: Customers are owed a refund of the ticket price (and fees) if the carrier cancels their flight — regardless of the reason — and they choose not to travel on an alternate flight, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
This is true even for non-refundable tickets.
That means customers would get cash back on a canceled flight if they opt not to fly, and also decline an alternative like a rebooking or flight voucher, said John Breyault, travel expert at the National Consumers League.
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Passengers are also entitled to a refund for “significant” schedule changes or delays, and opt not to fly, the DOT said.
However, the DOT doesn’t define “significant.” That determination is based on factors like length of delay and flight and particular circumstances, the agency said.
Starting Oct. 28, airlines will have to “promptly” and automatically pay refunds to customers, due to a Biden administration rule issued in April. That rule also defines “significant” itinerary changes, including delays of three hours for domestic flights and six hours for international flights.
However, since the rule takes effect in October, it doesn’t help customers affected by Friday’s outage. They may have to “jump through hoops with the airline” to claim a refund, Breyault said.

It may be yet more challenging for fliers who bought a ticket through a third-party booking site, and not directly with the airline, experts said.
Customers will likely have to transact with that intermediary for any kind of financial compensation, said Napoli.
Expedia, for example, said on social media Friday morning it was “experiencing high call volume and long wait times due to a global IT outage. If your needs are not urgent, please consider postponing your call and chat to avoid long hold times.”

Airline policies differ on meals, hotels

However, many travelers affected by Friday’s outage need or want to fly to their end destination, meaning they wouldn’t be entitled to a refund.
There are generally no federal guarantees for travelers in such cases. This is where specific airline policy comes into play.
“The airline is going to fly you to your destination, on the next available flight,” said Sara Rathner, a travel expert at NerdWallet.
“What might differ [between airlines] is how much compensation you might get after the fact, not just for the delays but any other costs you might incur,” she added.

The United Airlines terminal on July 19, 2024 as a global technology outage affected LAX airport in Los Angeles. 
Myung J. Chun | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

The Transportation Department website outlines carriers’ promises to customers in the event of cancellations or delays longer than three hours. (Its dashboard outlines policies for 10 large U.S. airlines and their regional operating partners, which account for 96% of domestic passenger air traffic.)
Airlines are “required to adhere” to these promises, the agency said.
All airlines commit to rebook passengers on the same airline for free. Some will do so on a partner airline, and most will offer a meal and/or a hotel stay for long delays or cancellations, Napoli said.

Is the global IT outage ‘controllable’ or not?

However, airlines’ commitments only apply to circumstances within the airline’s control.
A “controllable” flight cancellation or delay may be due to maintenance or crew problems, cabin cleaning, baggage loading or fueling, for example, according to the Transportation Department.
It’s generally harder for consumers to get any sort of compensation for uncontrollable events like weather, Breyault said.
Experts seem to disagree on whether Friday’s outage would be deemed to be within airlines’ control.
CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity firm, experienced a major disruption on Friday linked to a tech update. That impacted organizations like Microsoft, which scrambled to restore apps and services used by a huge number of firms — including airlines.

A Delta Airlines kiosk displays a message that reads “It looks like Windows didn’t load correctly” at Ronald Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, on July 19, 2024. 
Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images

“This seems a few degrees removed from the airlines,” said Rathner of NerdWallet. “It’s software they use as part of their operations.”
However, airlines choose their vendors, Breyault said. One could argue “a failure by one of their vendors is controllable,” he said.
“I think it’ll be something consumers should keep an eye on,” Breyault said.
Passengers should keep any receipts for unexpected costs incurred due to a delay or cancellation — like those for lodging and meals — for financial proof when filing a claim with an airline or travel insurer, for example, Rathner said.
“You may get some of that money back, so don’t throw those receipts away,” she said. More

Amid a global IT outage, some investors were experiencing disruptions on Friday at financial services companies, including Charles Schwab, one of the country’s largest brokerage firms.
The company’s website said “certain online functionality may be intermittently slow or unavailable,” and the app warned users about duplicate trades.
DownDetector did not show significant outage reports for Vanguard or Fidelity.

Pekic | E+ | Getty Images

Amid a widespread global IT outage, some investors were experiencing disruptions on Friday at financial services companies, including Charles Schwab, one of the country’s largest brokerage firms.
The issues stem from a faulty software update from cybersecurity company CrowdStrike, which affected businesses worldwide, including airlines, banks and media outlets.

CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz said the company is “actively working with customers impacted by a defect found in a single content update for Windows hosts.” 
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DownDetector, which tracks user-reported online outages, showed roughly 500 reports for Charles Schwab around 10 a.m. ET on Friday.
A banner across Charles Schwab’s website said “certain online functionality may be intermittently slow or unavailable,” noting that phone services may be disrupted with “longer than usual hold time.”
The firm’s app warned users not to place trades twice “as duplicate trades may be created,” and said the company was “working with the vendor to resolve the issue.”

Charles Schwab did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

DownDetector did not show significant outage reports for Vanguard or Fidelity.
“After the widespread third-party outage, Vanguard’s portfolio management trading functions across all regions are operating as normal and there is no current impact to our products or pricing,” a Vanguard spokesperson said. “We continue to monitor and assess the situation, and are working diligently to ensure business continuity for our clients globally.” 
Fidelity told CNBC the company was aware of the issues and that it did not appear to be impacted as of midday Friday.

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Target is the latest retailer to stop accepting personal checks as a form of payment at checkout.
As the U.S. steadily moves toward a “check zero” world, here’s who may be affected.

Nadya Lukic | E+ | Getty Images

Most Americans may not even remember the last time they wrote a check.
Only 15% of adults said they wrote a few checks a month in 2023, according to a recent report by GoBankingRates. At the time of the late November survey, 46% of the more than 1,000 respondents said they hadn’t written a single check in 2023.

These days, consumers are far more likely to “tap and go.”
In fact, in the years since the Covid pandemic, Americans have fully embraced contactless and digital payment methods, while check writing has steadily declined into near-oblivion.

Some retailers rule out paper checks

As of July 15, Target joined a growing list of retailers, including the Aldi supermarket chain, Whole Foods, Old Navy and Lululemon, that no longer accept personal checks as payment.
Even more businesses are likely to follow suit, according to Scott Anchin, vice president of operational risk and payments policy for the Independent Community Bankers of America. That’s in part because check fraud is a significant issue, he said.

“The check is inherently insecure,” Anchin said. “Handing over a check is akin to sharing a screenshot of bank details alongside a Venmo transfer — no one would consider this safe.”

With significant advancements in security, thanks to authentication, monitoring and data encryption, the shift by retailers and consumers to contactless and digital payment methods will only continue to grow, accelerating the move toward a “check zero” world, he said.
So, if personal checks are heading toward extinction, who, if anyone, is affected?

Who uses checks anyway?

In 2024, check writers skew older and are likely at the margins of the banking community, according to Anchin. Americans over the age of 55 are the most likely to write checks every month, GoBankingRates also found.
However, it wasn’t always that way.
Although checks, as we know them today, first originated in the 11th century, they didn’t become mainstream until the early 20th century, following the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, according to a historical survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
But back then, “everyday people didn’t have checking accounts, that was for rich people,” said Stephen Quinn, professor of economics at Texas Christian University and co-author of the Atlanta Fed’s report. “It wasn’t until after World War II that checking accounts were a common thing.”
Postwar prosperity greatly expanded the use of checking accounts to middle-class households, making checks the most widely used noncash payment method in the U.S., the Atlanta Fed found.
Personal checks continued to gain steam until the mid-1990s, when credit and debit cards largely took over. Since 2000, check-writing has plummeted by nearly 75%.

Despite the rapid decline, “a form of payment with a thousand-year history is unlikely to vanish overnight,” the Atlanta Fed report said.
And yet, today’s young adults are increasingly eschewing the traditional banking and credit infrastructure altogether in favor of peer-to-peer payment apps.
Quinn said his students rely almost exclusively on digital wallet payments such as Apple Pay, Venmo and Zelle — hardly anyone carries cash, and it’s likely that few even know how to write a check.
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In this way, mobile payment apps have become de facto bank accounts — even though, unlike banks or credit unions, these financial services are not FDIC-insured.
Still, there remains a place for personal checks, Quinn said.
“The paper check might linger where it began, at the high end — for large one-off payments,” he said, such as charitable donations or real estate transactions. “In this way, checks might hold on for some time.”
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