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    Mortgages, credit cards, auto loans: Expert predictions for interest rates in 2025

    The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its Jan. 28-29 meeting with a few more rate cuts over the course of the year.
    As a result, most types of consumer loans will be moderately cheaper by the end of 2025, Bankrate chief financial analyst Greg McBride said.
    From mortgage rates and credit cards to auto loans and savings accounts, here are his predictions for where rates are headed.

    Interest rates moved lower near the end of 2024 as the Federal Reserve cut rates three times, shaving a full percentage point off the federal funds rate since September. In 2025, that trend is likely to continue.
    But with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, a strong labor market and a new administration, the central bank already indicated that it would move more slowly on rate cuts in the year ahead.

    Federal Reserve officials reduced their outlook for expected cuts in 2025 to two from four, assuming quarter-point increments, according to minutes from their December meeting.
    “Robust U.S. economic data heightened concerns that the Federal Reserve may see little scope for cutting rates in 2025,” Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a research note.
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    Experts anticipate the Fed will hold steady on interest rates at its Jan. 28-29 meeting, and follow with only a few rate cuts through the year. Given that, most Americans can expect to see their financing expenses ease, but not by much, said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.
    “Rates were abnormally low for the better part of 15 years, and they’ve been abnormally high for the last two,” he said. “They’re coming down, but where they’ll settle out is going to be a level that’s higher than what we had seen before 2022.”

    Although Fed officials indicated two cuts, McBride expects as many as three coming over the course of the year, bringing the key benchmark rate to 3.5%-3.75%. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates consumers see every day.
    From mortgage rates and credit cards to auto loans and savings accounts, here are his predictions for where rates are headed in the year ahead:
    Prediction: Credit card rates fall to 19.8%

    A customer moves through the check out lane with his groceries at a Costco Wholesale store on April 3, 2024 in Colchester, Vermont.
    Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

    Since the central bank started cutting interest rates, the average credit card interest rate has only edged off extremely high levels. 
    Going forward, annual percentage rates aren’t likely to improve much more. McBride predicts that the average APR on a credit card will fall to 19.8% by the end of 2025, down about half a percentage point from where it stands now. 
    Cardholders usually see the impact within a billing cycle or two. But for those carrying a balance from month to month, “borrowers need to press on with debt-repayment efforts,” McBride said. Rates “won’t be coming down quickly enough to provide meaningful relief.”
    Prediction: Mortgage rates to hit 6.5%
    “Mortgage rates have gone up — not down — since the Fed began cutting interest rates in September,” McBride said.
    McBride now expects mortgage rates to “spend most of the year in the 6% range,” he said, “with a short-lived spike above 7%.”
    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could end the year at 6.5%, he projected. But since most people have fixed-rate mortgages, their rate won’t change unless they refinance or sell their current home and buy another property. 

    Prediction: Auto loan rates edge down to 7%
    When it comes to their cars, consumers have been facing bigger monthly payments, thanks to higher vehicle prices and elevated interest rates on new loans.
    While anyone planning to finance a new car could benefit from lower rates to come, affordability concerns won’t change significantly.
    Five-year new car loan rates are expected to fall to 7% from 7.53%, while four-year used car financing costs could drop to 7.75% from 8.21% by the end of the year, according to McBride.
    Prediction: High-yield savings rates dip below 4%
    In recent years, top-yielding online savings accounts have offered the best returns in over a decade and still pay nearly 5%, according to McBride.
    Even though those rates are falling, “they’re coming down slowly, and they’re still well above inflation,” McBride said.
    McBride predicts that top-yielding savings accounts and money market accounts could hit 3.8% by the end of 2025, while the top-yielding one-year and five-year CDs will fall to 3.7% and 3.95%, respectively.
    “That adds up to a pretty attractive environment for savers,” McBride said.
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    Biden forgives $4.5 billion in student debt for 261,000 borrowers who attended now-defunct Ashford University

    The Biden administration announced that it would forgive $4.5 billion in student debt for 261,000 borrowers who attended the now-defunct Ashford University.
    Borrowers who qualify for the relief are those who studied at the for-profit, largely online institution between March 1, 2009, and April 30, 2020.
    The California Department of Education successfully sued the institution, which it accused of deceiving students by making false promises and providing false information, including about costs and career outcomes, to get them to enroll.

    Headquarters of Ashford University in San Diego, a for-profit university belonging to Bridgepoint Education.
    Frank Duenzl | Picture-Alliance | DPA | AP

    The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it would forgive $4.5 billion in student debt for 261,000 borrowers who attended the now-defunct Ashford University.
    Borrowers who qualify for the relief are those who studied at the for-profit, largely online institution between March 1, 2009, and April 30, 2020.

    The California Department of Justice requested the loan cancellation for federal student loan borrowers based on evidence it gathered during its successful lawsuit against Ashford University and its parent company, Zovio, Inc., the Education Department said.
    California accused the university of deceiving students by making false promises and providing false information, including about costs and career outcomes, to get them to enroll.
    The California Department of Justice secured a more than $20 million penalty against Zovio and Ashford in 2022, the Education Department said.
    The recruiters at Ashford University misled students, telling them they would be able to work as teachers, social workers, nurses, or drug and alcohol counselors, the Education Department said. In reality, the university didn’t have the necessary state approval or accreditation for students to enter these professions, “meaning students wasted years of their lives and incurred tens of thousands of dollars of debt for degrees they could not use,” the department wrote in its press release.
    Students were also lied to by Ashford staff about the cost of attendance, how much debt they’d accumulate and how long it would take to complete certain degrees, the agency added.

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    “Numerous federal and state investigations have documented the deceptive recruiting tactics frequently used by Ashford University,” said U.S. Under Secretary of Education James Kvaal in a statement.
    “In reality, 90 percent of Ashford students never graduated, and the few who did were often left with large debts and low incomes,” he wrote.
    The University of Arizona acquired Ashford University in 2020. Zovio approved a plan to go out of business in late 2022, according to HigherEd Dive.
    “The department notes that this decision was based on evidence presented in a lawsuit brought by the California Department of Justice against Ashford and its parent company, Zovio Inc.,” University of Arizona spokesman Mieczyslaw J. “Mitch” Zak said. “UAGC was not a party to, and did not participate in, the California lawsuit, and it had no relationship with Ashford or Zovio during this time period.”
    Since Biden took office, he has forgiven debt for more than 5 million federal student loan borrowers, totaling $183.6 billion in relief. More

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    Hindenburg Research founder says he’s closing short-seller research shop

    Hindenburg founder Nate Anderson said the firm has “finished the pipeline of ideas we were working on.”
    One of Hindenburg’s first high-profile reports came in 2020 and was focused on vehicle startup Nikola.
    The firm has also gone after the companies of major financial figures, including Carl Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises LP and the business empire of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani.

    Nate Anderson on January 6, 2023 in New York. Anderson exposes corporate fraud and ponzi schemes through his company Hindenburg Research.
    The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty Images

    Hindenburg Research, an upstart research and investment firm that made a name for itself with several successful short bets, is closing, founder Nate Anderson announced Wednesday.
    “As I’ve shared with family, friends and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research. The plan has been to wind up after we finished the pipeline of ideas we were working on. And as of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson wrote in a note posted to the firm’s website.

    Anderson founded Hindenburg in 2017, and the company has published negative research reports about dozens of companies in the years since. One of Hindenburg’s first high-profile reports came in 2020 and was focused on vehicle startup Nikola. Part of the report included an allegation that Nikola had faked the autonomous capabilities of a semi-truck in a video, which the company later admitted. Nikola founder Trevor Milton was later sentenced to four years in prison.
    Many of the targets of Hindenburg’s reports were smaller companies. The firm has also gone after the companies of major financial figures, including Carl Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises LP and the business empire of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani.
    The most recent report filed by the company was on Jan. 2 about auto retailer Carvana, which it called a “father-son accounting grift for the ages.” In a statement, Carvana called the firm’s report “intentionally misleading and inaccurate.” The stock fell more than 11% the day after Hindenburg published its report but has since recovered.
    Hindenburg was a short seller as well as a research house. This means that the firm was placing bets against the companies it was researching, putting it in position to profit if the stock declined. As Hindenburg’s reputation grew, some stocks saw immediate negative reactions after the reports were published.
    It is not clear how much money Hindenburg made from its short bets.
    The rise of Hindenburg came at a time when the controversial practice of short selling was falling out of favor elsewhere. The meme-stock craze of 2021 pitted retail investors against hedge funds, causing some professional investors to back away from short selling. Federal officials have also been investigating other short sellers in recent years, including the Department of Justice hitting Citron’s Andrew Left with securities fraud charges last year. More

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    Biden administration seeks to avoid default crisis for student loan borrowers as garnishments resume

    In a new U.S. Department of Education memo obtained by CNBC, a top official lays out the steps the Biden administration has taken to stave off a default crisis among federal student loan borrowers.
    It details when garnishments may resume — in some cases, as early as this summer.
    There were around 7.5 million federal student loan borrowers in default, the Education Department said in 2022.
    That grim figure led to comparisons with the 2008 mortgage crisis.

    President Joe Biden is joined by Education Secretary Miguel Cardona as he announces new actions to protect borrowers after the Supreme Court struck down his student loan forgiveness plan, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., on June 30, 2023.
    Chip Somodevilla | Getty

    This year, for the first time in roughly five years, borrowers who have defaulted on their federal student loan debt will face collection activity, including the garnishment of their wages and retirement benefits.
    In a new U.S. Department of Education memo obtained by CNBC, a top official lays out for the first time details of when garnishments may resume — in some cases, as early as this summer.

    The memo, dated days before the Trump administration takes over, details steps the Biden administration has taken to stave off a default crisis among federal student loan borrowers. It outlines strategies for the department to help student loan borrowers stay current as collection efforts resume this year.
    “It is critical to continue the initiatives and fully implement the actions outlined in this memo, as the Department plans to resume default penalties and mandatory collections later this year,” U.S. Undersecretary of Education James Kvaal writes in the memo addressed to Denise Carter, acting chief operating officer for Federal Student Aid.
    There were around 7.5 million federal student loan borrowers in default, the Education Department said in 2022. That grim figure led to comparisons with the 2008 mortgage crisis.
    By late 2024, the number in default had fallen to around 5.5 million, the department’s memo said.

    Borrowers could face Social Security offsets by August

    After the Covid-era pause on federal student loan payments expired in September 2023, the Biden administration offered borrowers a 12-month “on-ramp” to repayment. During that time, they were shielded from most of the consequences of falling behind on their payments. The relief period expired on Sept. 30, 2024.

    Now federal student loan borrowers in default may see their wages garnished starting in October of this year, according to the Education Department. Meanwhile, Social Security benefit offsets could resume as early as August.
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    The Department of Education memo directs its Federal Student Aid office to continue the Biden administration’s work to avoid defaults.
    That includes making it easier for borrowers to enroll in affordable repayment plans, such as letting borrowers authorize the department to obtain their income information from the IRS and to automatically enroll borrowers in an income-driven repayment plan if they become 75 days delinquent on their loans. (IDR plans base a borrower’s monthly bill on their discretionary income and family size, and some are left with a $0 monthly bill. Any remaining debt is canceled after a certain period, typically 20 or 25 years.)
    Borrowers should also be “screened for other forgiveness opportunities before they formally default,” the memo says.
    “Automatically identifying borrowers who are eligible for forgiveness through data matches with other federal agencies is a very good innovation,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. “This should be done for all borrowers, not just for borrowers who are about to default.”
    The memo also encourages the Education Department to explore options for increasing the current interest rate incentive to get borrowers to sign up for automatic payments to their student loan servicer. As of now, borrowers can typically get an 0.25 percentage point reduction in their interest rate by doing so.
    It’s uncertain how much, if at all, the Trump administration will implement the ideas in the memo, Kantrowitz said.
    “Policy shifts in the weeks before inauguration will be subject to scrutiny by the incoming administration and memos are easily rescinded,” he said.

    Fewer consequences on defaulted student loans

    Later this year, for the first time, borrowers in default will be able to enroll in the Income-Based Repayment plan “and have a pathway to forgiveness,” the memo says. Currently, federal student loan borrowers need to exit default before they can access any of the income-driven repayment plans, including the IBR.
    According to the memo, the Biden administration has eliminated most collection fees on federal student loans.

    In early 2024, it also took steps to protect a higher amount of people’s Social Security benefits from the department’s collection powers. When the consequences of defaults resume, those with a monthly Social Security benefit under $1,883 can protect those benefits from offset, compared with the current protected amount of $750 in place today.
    “Available data suggest that these actions will effectively halt Social Security offsets for more than half of affected borrowers and reduce the offset amount for many others,” the memo says. More

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    The crazy ride in quantum computing stocks continues as shares rip higher on Microsoft’s ‘quantum-ready’ directive

    Quantum computing stocks rallied Wednesday following a directive from Microsoft urging businesses to get “quantum-ready” in 2025.
    The news lifted shares of Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and IonQ
    Quantum stocks skyrocketed last year, but have pulled back following comments from Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Meta Platforms’ CEO, Mark Zuckerberg

    D-Wave Systems Inc. logo of a Canadian quantum computing company is seen on a smartphone screen.
    Pavlo Gonchar | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Quantum computing stocks rallied Wednesday, spurred by a directive from Microsoft urging businesses to get “quantum-ready” in 2025, and as investors returned to “risk on” trades after December core inflation came in weaker than forecast.
    “We are at the advent of the reliable quantum computing era,” wrote Mitra Azizirad, president and chief operating officer of Microsoft’s strategic missions and technologies, in a blog post. “And we are right on the cusp of seeing quantum computers solve meaningful problems and capture new business value.”

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    Shares rally after Microsoft directive

    Microsoft’s remarks helped drive shares of Rigetti Computing more than 23% higher Wednesday, while D-Wave quantum surged 21%, IonQ climbed 35%, and the Defiance Quantum and AI ETF added 2.7%. The rally was also fueled by Nvidia on Tuesday announcing a “Quantum Day” at its GTC conference in March.
    Microsoft announced a program to help businesses prepare for the advent of the quantum computing era. Azizirad said this is a “critical and catalyzing time for business leaders to act,” and expects quantum research and development to rapidly accelerate over the next year.
    Microsoft is the latest company to spur enthusiasm for quantum computing, a field of computer science that leverages quantum mechanics to solve complex problems faster than traditional computers. Quantum stocks skyrocketed last year after Google, a unit of Alphabet, announced a breakthrough with its Willow quantum computing chip.

    Stock chart icon

    D-Wave Quantum shares jump after Microsoft urges businesses to get “quantum-ready.”

    Comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang this month took the wind out of last year’s rally, suggesting that useful quantum computers are decades away. Shares of quantum stocks also slumped this week following comments from Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg that further tempered expectations.
    Despite the recent enthusiasm for the sector, many on Wall Street also believe real-world use cases for the technology are decades away. Supporters say quantum computers will be able to conduct computing tasks traditional computers can’t, while processing far more data.

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    Here are 7 steps homeowners and renters should take after a wildfire, experts say

    The wildfires that set parts of Southern California ablaze are projected to cost over $20 billion in insured losses, according to JPMorgan estimates.
    If your primary residence was affected by the wildfires, experts say to take these first steps, whether you’re a homeowner or a renter.

    Flames and smoke from the Palisades Fire surround a home (C) in the community of Topanga, California, on January 9, 2025. 
    David Swanson | Afp | Getty Images

    Firefighters are still working to contain the record-breaking fires that have been raging for more than a week in Southern California.
    The fires in the Greater Los Angeles area have burned through 40,000 acres, destroying more than 12,300 structures, according to NBC News. About 88,000 L.A. residents are under evacuation orders and another 89,000 are in evacuation warning zones, meaning they may need to leave at a moment’s notice.

    The insured losses from the early January wildfires may cost over $20 billion, according to estimates published last week by JPMorgan. Wells Fargo similarly estimated about $20 billion worth of insured losses with an approximate $60 billion economic loss.
    As many affected residents are trying to figure out what’s next, one of the first things to do is kickstart the insurance process, according to Karl Susman, insurance broker and president of Susman Insurance Services in Los Angeles.
    “Get your claim filed as quickly as you can,” he said. “You don’t have to have all of the information on hand.”
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    Insurers are likely to take a longer time than usual to process claims because of the influx of applications, he said, so the sooner you get the ball rolling, the better. 

    If your primary residence has been affected by wildfire — whether you rent or own — experts advise taking these seven steps right away.

    1. File the claim first, assess damage later

    You don’t have to wait for firefighters to completely put out the fire to file an insurance claim.
    Even if you’ve already evacuated and are unaware of the status of your home, you can still begin the claims process, Susman said.
    Factors like the type and extent of the damage, the complexity of the claim and the volume of insured losses can affect the insurer’s processing time, experts say.
    Renters have access to most of the same resources homeowners do, said Shannon Martin, a licensed insurance agent and analyst at Bankrate.com.
    “For the most part, renters can follow the same process as homeowners,” she said. “You want to get yourself to safety, set up your insurance claim and then ask if you can get any additional living expenses in advance.”

    2. Ask about ‘loss of use’ coverage

    Ask your provider about “loss of use” coverage under your home insurance policy, said Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street Foundation, an organization based in New York City that focuses on climate risk financial modeling.
    The coverage would allow you to secure temporary housing or lodging while you’re out of your home, he said: “It’s there specifically to give people kind of a lifeline when they can’t move back into the dwelling.”
    Tenants may have similar coverage — it’s generally known as Coverage D in renters insurance policies, Porter said. 

    3. Keep your receipts and document everything

    If you have loss of use coverage, make sure to keep every receipt for any clothes, food and temporary housing or hotel stays you may need. Also keep track of your activities and document all of your conversations with insurers, according to Douglas Heller, director of insurance at the Consumer Federation of America.
    “The better you document what you are doing as you go through this awful time, the easier it will be to demonstrate your claim for reimbursements,” he said. 

    4. Turn off your utilities

    If the fire caused severe damage or you suffered a complete loss of your home, contact your utilities — such as electricity, water and trash collection companies — to temporarily shut off service. You may not have to pay for these services for the time being, Susman said.

    5. Contact your auto insurer

    If you lost a vehicle in the fire, the damage may be covered under your auto insurance policy, Susman said.
    “It’s not going to be under your home [insurance policy] exactly, even if the car was in your driveway,” Susman said.
    Look for what’s called comprehensive coverage under your auto insurance, he said. 
    If you have comprehensive coverage on your car, you’re typically covered for wildfire loss, and “you just have to pay your deductible,” Bankrate’s Martin said.

    6. Don’t forget property taxes

    If your home suffered damages, or was a total loss, go to your county assessor’s website and type in your address.
    If you’ve sustained more than $10,000 in damages, or the home is a total loss, you can file for an application to reduce or eliminate your property tax while the dwelling is under construction or uninhabitable, insurance expert Susman said.
    “That’s something that people tend to not know or they overlook it,” he said.

    7. Tap local aid opportunities

    If you were not previously covered or your coverage was canceled before the disaster hit, keep an eye out for aid that may become available for those affected by the wildfires, Susman said. 
    “For people that had zero insurance, [there will] probably be some type of assistance that will be available,” Susman said.
    During a White House briefing, President Joe Biden announced a one-time payment of $770 through the Federal Emergency Management Agency is available for the wildfire victims. Nearly 6,000 survivors have registered for the aid and $5.1 million has gone out, according to The White House.
    Those impacted can file for aid via DisasterAssistance.gov or FEMA’s hotline at 1-800-621-3362.
    California’s Insurance Commission can be reached at 1-800-927-4357 to help individuals navigate the process as well as help uninsured victims.

    FEMA is also providing assistance to those affected by the wildfires.
    If you were not previously covered by an insurance plan, the agency’s Individuals and Households Program may provide funds for temporary housing.
    Affected individuals can apply online at DisasterAssistance.gov or by calling 1-800-621-3362.
    Seek out local support groups and workshops. The Insurance Commission of California will host its first workshop involving government representatives and insurers on Jan. 18-19 at Santa Monica College. Follow-up events are scheduled on Jan. 25- 26 at Pasadena College.
    Some charities and nonprofits are actively accepting donations and are engaging in recovery efforts in the Pacific Palisades and surrounding areas. More

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    House Republicans push to extend Trump tax cuts amid Democratic pushback

    House Republicans are pushing for extensions of the 2017 tax cuts enacted by President-elect Donald Trump.
    With full control of Congress and the White House, Republicans can pass legislation through a process known as “reconciliation,” which bypasses the filibuster. 
    However, there’s Democratic pushback amid concerns over the federal budget deficit.

    Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) speaks during a House Committee on Ways and Means in the Longworth House Office Building on April 30, 2024 in Washington, D.C.
    Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    With less than one week until President-elect Donald Trump takes office, some House Republicans are pushing for swift extensions of the GOP’s 2017 tax legislation.
    Absent action from Congress, trillions of tax breaks are scheduled to expire after 2025, including lower tax brackets, a more generous child tax credit and a 20% deduction for pass-through businesses, among others. More than 60% of taxpayers could see higher taxes in 2026 without extensions of provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, according to the Tax Foundation.

    “We must not leave families and small businesses waiting for Congress to do the right thing and provide tax relief at the 11th hour,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., said during a committee hearing on Tuesday.
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    With full control of Congress and the White House, Republicans can pass legislation through a process known as “reconciliation,” which bypasses the filibuster. 
    “We must make the Trump tax cuts permanent as soon as possible,” Smith said.
    However, some lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have criticized the cost of fully extending Trump’s expiring tax provisions, particularly amid concerns about the federal budget deficit.

    The three-month fiscal year 2025 deficit grew to $710.9 billion in December, nearly 40% higher than the same period the previous year, the U.S. Department of the Treasury reported on Tuesday.

    Some Democrats have also pushed back on TCJA extensions, noting that they disproportionately benefit the wealthy, rather than middle-class families.
    “We know that most of these [tax] cuts went to people at the very top,” Richard Neal, D-Mass., ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, said during the hearing. “The American people are living under this tax plan and they need relief from it.”
    Fully extending Trump’s expiring tax cuts could cost an estimated $4.2 trillion over 10 years, according to a report released last week by the Treasury. 
    If extended, the average family would save 2.2% of after-tax income, whereas the top 0.1% of earners would receive a 4.2% reduction, the report found. When you factor in income, the average family would save roughly $2,000 per year, while the highest 0.1% could see an average tax savings of about $314,000. These figures are based on 2025 data. More

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    Worried about Social Security’s future? Here’s what experts say to consider before claiming benefits

    The Social Security Fairness Act adds to Social Security’s benefit costs when the program’s funding is already running low.
    If you’re worried about your future benefits, or think you’re eligible for the newly enacted increases, here’s what experts say to consider.

    AleksandarNakic | E+ | Getty Images

    When it comes to Social Security, prospective beneficiaries often worry whether their benefits will be there when they retire.
    Polls show Americans generally have low confidence in the program’s future.

    A 2024 survey from Nationwide Retirement Institute found 72% of adults worry Social Security will run out of funding in their lifetime.
    Likewise, an October Bankrate survey found that only 6% of Americans are “not at all concerned” their benefits won’t be paid when they reach retirement age. Gen Xers — who at ages 44 to 59 are getting closer to retirement — are most likely to be concerned about the program’s future, Bankrate found.
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    President Joe Biden recently signed the Social Security Fairness Act, which will increase Social Security benefits for nearly 3 million individuals who also receive public pensions. Yet because that legislation did not provide for a way to fund those extra benefit payments, Social Security now has a shorter runway of time that it can afford to pay full benefits.
    In 2024, Social Security’s trustees projected the program’s combined funds may last until 2035, at which point 83% of benefits would be payable. The newly enacted changes bring that date closer by six months, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.

    “There’s no new sources of revenue here, and so by definition, depletion is going to happen sooner versus later,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions.
    To address the program’s shortfall, Congress may raise taxes, cut benefits or a combination of both.  
    Those looming changes may influence claiming decisions — for all beneficiaries, as well as those affected by the new legislation.

    Now is the time to ‘stress test’ your plan

    Social Security retirement benefits are based on a worker’s earnings history, as well as the age at which they claim.
    The earliest claiming age is 62. But claiming that early results in permanently reduced benefits.
    By waiting until full retirement age — which ranges from 66 to 67, depending on date of birth — retirees will receive 100% of the benefits they’ve earned.
    By delaying even longer — up to age 70 — they stand to receive an 8% benefit boost for every year they wait past full retirement age.
    Even if there are benefit cuts in the future, experts say it generally helps to have a higher benefit amount, so long as you can afford to delay claiming benefits.

    Year of birth
    Social Security full retirement age

    1943-1954
    66

    1955
    66 and two months

    1956
    66 and four months

    1957
    66 and six months

    1958
    66 and eight months

    1959
    66 and 10 months

    1960 or later
    67

    Individuals who are in or near retirement may not see imminent changes.
    “It’s incredibly unlikely that they’re going to reduce benefits for any current retirees,” Blanchett said.
    However, for future beneficiaries, Social Security probably won’t be as generous in 20 or 30 years as it is today, Blanchett said. Exactly how benefits may change will depend on a variety of unknowns, including future immigration and birth rates.
    That doesn’t mean Social Security benefits won’t exist at all, Blanchett said. But he said it would be wise to assess how receiving just 80% of today’s benefits, or even 50% of the current value for dual-income households, affects your retirement plan.

    Social Security is meant to be just one part of a retirement income plan. If Social Security cuts happen, it helps to have more retirement savings or other assets to rely on.  
    “The one thing that you can do to kind of help yourself with all these risks and uncertainties is just to save more so that you’re prepared for whatever may happen,” Blanchett said.
    Joe Elsasser, a certified financial planner and president of Covisum, a Social Security claiming software company, said he recommends a “stress test” for retirement plans in light of the possibility of benefit cuts.
    “If you can’t live how you want to live even in the presence of a cut, consider reducing spending a bit now so that you don’t have to reduce it a lot more later,” he said.

    If new law affects you, ‘take a fresh look’ at your plan

    More than 72.5 million people now receive Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits, according to agency data.
    Consequently, the nearly 3 million people who stand to benefit from the newly enacted Social Security Fairness Act are just a fraction of the beneficiary population.
    The new law eliminates certain provisions — the Windfall Elimination Provision, or WEP, and the Government Pension Offset, or GPO — that reduced Social Security benefits for workers who had pensions or disability benefits from work where Social Security payroll taxes were not paid.

    Because those changes have implications for an entire family, the new law may reach double the number of individuals who are directly affected by the changes, after accounting for spouses and children, according to David Freitag, a financial planning consultant and Social Security expert at MassMutual.
    The potential difference in benefits may be dramatic. For example, one couple who would have faced a retirement funding shortfall when they had been affected by the WEP and GPO may now have a lifetime surplus of more than $300,000 once those offsets are eliminated, according to MassMutual’s computer models.
    The effects of the new changes will vary on a case-by-case basis, and not all beneficiaries stand to see that level of increase. But even just $300 more in monthly income that’s annually adjusted for inflation can make a big difference in retirement, Freitag said.
    “If you’re affected by this, you need to take a fresh look at your retirement plan,” Freitag said. More