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    Trump may roll back student loan forgiveness programs if elected to second term

    As president, Trump called for the elimination of the Education Department’s debt relief programs, including the popular Public Service Loan Forgiveness initiative, which benefits public employees such as members of the U.S. Armed Forces, first responders, public defenders, prosecutors and teachers.
    He also wanted to slash the department’s budget, and his administration halted a regulation aimed at providing loan forgiveness to those defrauded by their schools.
    Now, as he runs for president again, Trump seems poised to make even deeper cuts to financial aid programs for students.

    Former President Donald Trump gives the keynote address at Turning Point Action’s “The People’s Convention” in Detroit, June 15, 2024.
    Bill Pugliano | Getty Images

    At a June 18 campaign rally in Racine, Wisconsin, former President Donald Trump slammed the Biden administration’s efforts to forgive student debt as “vile” and “not even legal.”
    “The students aren’t buying it, by the way,” Trump said to a crowd of a couple of thousand people near Lake Michigan.

    Trump also brought up the Supreme Court’s decision in 2023 to block President Joe Biden’s first attempt at broad student loan cancellation: “He got rebuked, and then he did it again.”
    “It’s going to get rebuked again even more,” Trump said.
    As president, Trump called for the elimination of the U.S. Department of Education’s existing loan relief programs, including the popular Public Service Loan Forgiveness initiative, which benefits public employees such as members of the U.S. Armed Forces, first responders, public defenders, prosecutors and teachers. He also wanted to slash the department’s budget, and his administration halted a regulation aimed at providing loan forgiveness to those defrauded by their schools.
    Now, as he runs for president again, Trump seems poised to make even deeper cuts to financial aid programs for students. He has repeatedly attacked Biden’s loan relief policies, and he said in a campaign video in late 2023 that he wants to close the Education Department altogether.
    Outstanding education debt in the U.S. exceeds $1.6 trillion, according to a 2022 report by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service. Nearly 43 million people — or 1 in 6 adult Americans — carry student loans, the report said.

    Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at Crotona Park in the Bronx borough of New York City, May 23, 2024.
    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    Project 2025, a set of proposals developed by The Heritage Foundation from more than 100 conservative organizations, says that “student loans and grants should ultimately be restored to the private sector.” (Some conservatives argue that private companies would do a better job lending to students than the federal government.) The proposal also calls for reducing affordable repayment options for borrowers and ending the loan forgiveness offered under these plans after a certain period.
    “Trump will undo President Biden’s student loan forgiveness proposals,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. “He will relax rules on for-profit colleges, as part of deregulation efforts, and propose cuts, including possibly defunding the U.S. Department of Education.”

    In an email response, Steven Cheung, a spokesman for the Trump campaign, referred CNBC to resources, including Trump’s campaign website and a range of media articles, in which sources frame student loan forgiveness as a boon to high earners and those who attended elite colleges. Less than 1% of federal student borrowers attended Ivy League colleges, according to an estimate by Kantrowitz.
    Cheung did not answer specific questions from CNBC about what Trump plans to do regarding student debt and education if he is elected president.

    Efforts against student loan relief already in play

    Members of Trump’s party, meanwhile, have already stymied many of Biden’s efforts to deliver student loan relief. Most recently, lawsuits by Republican-led states, including Florida, Arkansas and Missouri, resulted in two federal judges halting implementation of key parts of the president’s new repayment plan, which dramatically reduced many borrowers’ monthly payments.
    The preliminary injunctions prevented the Biden administration from forgiving any more debt under the Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan, and from further reducing enrolled borrowers’ payments in July, as it planned. On Sunday, however, a federal appeals court granted the Education Department’s request to stay one of those injunctions, allowing the department to move ahead with lowering loan bills for SAVE enrollees.
    Cody Gude, a social media consultant in Tampa, Florida, said he expects if Trump wins it will become more difficult and expensive for him to pay back his student loan debt of about $34,000.
    “With inflation and student loans restarting, it’s become a lot,” said Gude, 35.
    Gude said he was upset that Florida joined the lawsuit against the SAVE plan. He said he was looking forward to his student loan bill decreasing in July so he wouldn’t have to deliver groceries through Instacart anymore in addition to his regular job.
    “It hurts that my home state doesn’t want to help its own citizens,” Gude said.
    He said he worries that if elected Trump would roll back financial relief options for young people, and that he plans to vote for Biden.

    Bringing ‘free market forces’ to student lending

    Many voters welcome Trump’s stance on student loan relief and question the fairness of forgiving the loans of those who have benefited from a higher education.
    Just 15% of Republicans find student loan forgiveness important, compared with 58% of Democrats, according to a national poll from mid-May by the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
    The Biden administration’s most recent student loan forgiveness proposal garnered a record number of public comments, with more than 148,000 people sharing their opinion.
    “I call on the Biden administration to stop imposing an unjust burden on Americans who did not go to college or have paid off their student loan debt,” one person wrote.
    Another commented: “I worked overtime and three part-time jobs when I pursued a graduate degree.”
    “College is a personal choice that comes with many adult decisions,” the second person said. “It is not the federal government’s responsibility to pass those personal decisions off onto our country’s taxpayers.”
    Elaine Parker, president of the Job Creators Network Foundation, a conservative advocacy group, said Biden was only forgiving student debt in an effort to buy votes.
    “They don’t want to solve the problem,” Parker said. She said the root cause of the student loan crisis was skyrocketing college tuition.

    Protesters from We The 45 Million project a message on the outside of the U.S. Department of Education building in Washington asking the department to cancel student debt, March 14, 2022.
    Paul Morigi | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

    Parker said Congress needs to hold legislative hearings and bring in campus leaders to justify their tuition hikes, excessive administrative costs and degree programs that lack transparency on career outcomes.
    She also said the private sector should play a bigger role in financing higher education.
    “Why are the banks taken out of this?” Parker asked. “We’ve lost the free market forces in the college lending system.”

    Concerns about Trump’s proposals

    Higher education experts and consumer advocates expressed concern about the reforms floated by conservatives and Trump.
    If the U.S. Department of Education were shut down, “there would be complete chaos,” Kantrowitz said.
    Such a move would mean an end to Pell Grants, one of the biggest sources of financial aid available to college students, as well as federal student loans and work study opportunities, he said.
    “K-12 education would be in disarray, too,” Kantrowitz added.
    Meanwhile, transferring student lending from the government to private companies would only hurt consumers and worsen the crisis, said Aissa Canchola-Banez, political director at Protect Borrowers Action.
    “Private lenders put their bottom line ahead of the needs of borrowers and that is a recipe for disaster,” Canchola-Banez said.

    Kelly Lambers, of Cincinnati, said the issue of student loan debt will be top of mind for her in the November election. The social media strategist said her debt of around $97,000 makes it hard for her to cover her basic expenses.
    She said the Biden administration’s SAVE plan brought her monthly bill on her federal student loans down to $31 from $100. She also pays $650 a month for her private student loans.
    She said she plans to vote for Biden, in part because she believes she could lose that relief under Trump. More

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    What Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour says about ‘passion tourism’

    Many Americans are paying to travel abroad to see a Taylor Swift concert. The Eras Tour is in multiple European cities this summer.
    It’s part of a trend known as “passion tourism.”
    Other recent or upcoming examples include travel for the Olympics in Paris, the total solar eclipse in North America, Carnival in Rio de Janeiro and the Euro Cup in Germany.

    Taylor Swift performs on stage during The Eras Tour on June 28, 2024 in Dublin, Ireland. 
    Charles Mcquillan/tas24 | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

    Taylor Swift’s European tour was top of mind for Nikita Rao when planning where to go for her family’s annual summer vacation.
    Rao, her husband and two kids, who live in Bethesda, Maryland, headed overseas this past weekend: They have tickets to the pop star’s concert in Amsterdam on Thursday.

    The family built a weeklong itinerary around The Eras Tour event, spending a few days in London before making their way to the Netherlands for the show. They would have likely visited the two cities at some point in the future, but the Swift concert accelerated their timeline, said Rao, 43, who also saw a performance in Cincinnati last year with her daughter.
    “My view on it was, we should do this — London and Amsterdam — because she’ll be there,” Rao said. “If I can get tickets, that’ll just make the whole vacation amazing,” she said of her thought process.

    Why Taylor Swift is unique to ‘passion tourism’

    Taylor Swift fans gather outside Santiago Bernabéu Stadium for a concert in Madrid, Spain, on May 29, 2024. 
    David Benito | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

    It’s not just the Rao family.
    Americans are flocking overseas to see Taylor Swift, perhaps the most prominent recent example of so-called “passion tourism,” according to travel experts.
    Passion tourism revolves (unsurprisingly) around people’s passions. While place is also generally important, these trips are generally guided by personal interest, hobby or a cultural event, experts said.

    This isn’t a new concept. In fact, there are many recent and upcoming examples: February’s annual Carnival festival in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; April’s total solar eclipse in North America; the 2024 Paris Olympics that start this month; and the ongoing UEFA European Football Championship (known as the Euro Cup) in Germany.
    “Memorable events are driving travel trends, whether it is for concerts or sporting events,” Mastercard wrote recently in its annual travel trends report.
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    However, what distinguishes Taylor Swift concerts in the realm of passion tourism is the broad interest and enthusiasm among Americans who want to travel abroad, according to travel agents.
    “I’ve never seen this excitement to travel to go see an artist,” said Jessica Griscavage, a travel advisor and founder of Runway Travel.
    The most recent example that might come close is a Spice Girls concert in the 1990s, she said.
    Griscavage, who put together the Rao family’s itinerary, also assembled a separate Swift-centered trip to Paris for a daughter, mother and grandmother.    
    More than half of Americans, 53%, identify as fans of Taylor Swift, according to a poll by Morning Consult. About 16% consider themselves “avid” fans.

    “Beyoncé is big, too, but we don’t usually get requests like, ‘I have Beyoncé tickets for Europe and we want to build a trip around it,'” said Sofia Markovich, a travel advisor and founder of Sofia’s Travel.
    She assembled trips for two U.S. clients who had tickets for Taylor Swift shows in England and Switzerland, respectively.
    “Just as Grateful Dead fans were known to follow the band from city to city to be part of a unique community, Swifties — often with friends and family in tow — have made traveling to her concerts part of the experience,” Joshua Friedlander, vice president of research at the U.S. Travel Association, wrote recently about the so-called “Swift Lift.”

    ‘Inevitable’ that Swifties will travel to new places

    About 15.9 million Americans traveled internationally in the first quarter of 2024, an all-time high, according to Mastercard’s travel report. Consumers are also spending for travel at record levels globally, it said.
    Passion tourism generally provides an economic boost to host nations, experts said.
    For example, spending by tourists at restaurants, bars and grocery stores during the 2024 Carnival in Rio was 156% above normal, Mastercard found. During the solar eclipse, hotel sales within the U.S. path of totality rose 71%, it said.

    Spectators looking up at the solar eclipse at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indianapolis, Indiana, on April 8, 2024. 
    Nurphoto | Getty Images

    About 1.2 million fans will see a Taylor Swift concert this summer across four cities in the United Kingdom (Edinburgh, Liverpool, Cardiff and London), according to a recent Barclays analysis. Each fan will spend an average 848 British pounds (about $1,073) on tickets, travel, accommodation, outfits and other expenses, amounting to a total 997 million British pounds (about $1.3 billion), Barclays estimated.
    Accommodation accounts for the largest outlay after tickets, followed by travel, according to the Barclays analysis.
    Searches for Airbnb stays in European cities during Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour dates are up about 70% relative to the same period in 2023, according to a recent analysis.

    Beyoncé is big, too, but we don’t usually get requests like, ‘I have Beyoncé tickets for Europe and we want to build a trip around it.’

    Sofia Markovich
    travel advisor

    Rome and Paris are traditionally among Americans’ top destinations to visit abroad. However, it’s “inevitable” that Swift fans will end up in a city they may have previously overlooked, like Edinburgh, said Chris Nulty, global head of corporate communications and public affairs at Airbnb.
    When tickets went on sale last year for Edinburgh concert dates, searches for lodging in the city by Americans jumped 500%, Nulty said.
    A concert “combines the opportunity to travel somewhere incredible with the opportunity to see an artist they love,” he said.

    The household economics of ticket sales are also likely playing a role, experts said. Some Swifties who were priced out of the U.S. market due to ticket expense may find it cheaper overall (or comparably priced) to buy a ticket and add on the associated travel expenses for a concert overseas.
    “The resale tickets in Europe are much more reasonable than what they are in the U.S.,” said Griscavage, the travel advisor.
    Additionally, “I think there’s something really exciting about seeing her in a non-U.S. city,” she added. “It’s a fun opportunity and people are willing to pay to see her.”

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    FAFSA issues force hard choices: 44% of students said college decisions came down to $5,000 in aid

    Experts predicted that problems with the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid would weigh heavily on enrollment and decisions between schools.
    A recent study found that 76% of students said the financial aid amount awarded to them, and the overall financial aid process, was the top driver in their choice about where to go to college — and 44% said they’d switch their top choice school if offered just $5,000 more in aid.

    In an already difficult year for college applicants, when it came down to picking a school, there was one factor that outweighed all others: financial aid.
    Even in ordinary years, choosing a college largely hinges on the amount of financial aid offered and the breakdown among grants, scholarships, work-study opportunities and student loans.

    In 2024, however, ongoing issues with the new federal financial-aid application have heightened the role of aid in college choices. Because of problems with the new form, financial aid award letters were delayed and some high school seniors had trouble applying for any aid at all.
    More than three-quarters (76%) of students said the financial aid amount awarded to them, and the overall financial aid process, were the top drivers in their choice about where to go to college, according to a survey by Ellucian and EMI Research Solutions conducted in March.
    That outpaces parental influence, location, campus culture and even the degree programs offered.
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    “This year, we are just seeing such deep concerns around college costs, more than in the past couple of years,” said Robert Franek, editor-in-chief of The Princeton Review, which recently ranked colleges by how much financial aid is awarded. “There is a stress level that is palpable.”

    Higher education already costs more than most families can afford, and college costs are still rising. Tuition and fees, plus room and board, for a four-year private college averaged $56,190 in the 2023-2024 school year; at four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,030 per year, according to College Board.

    Experts predicted that problems with the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid would weigh heavily on enrollment, although it was initially unclear how much it would play a role in decisions between schools.
    Ellucian’s study found that 44% of the 1,500 students surveyed said they’d switch their top choice school if offered just $5,000 more in aid.
    “It’s a surprisingly small amount when you look at the total cost,” Ellucian’s CEO, Laura Ipsen said of the difference that award money made on the decision-making process.

    The FAFSA’s impact on decision-making

    “It was not only about the financial aid piece, which is huge, but comparing different offers coming in at different times,” said Eric Greenberg, president of Greenberg Educational Group, a New York-based consulting firm. “It did have a big impact on the way people made decisions.”
    In previous years, financial aid award letters were sent around the same time as admission letters, meaning students had several weeks to compare offers ahead of National College Decision Day, the deadline to decide on a college for most admitted students.

    Because of the extensive delays this year, some students won’t get their final financial aid award letter until the end of August, by the U.S. Department of Education said in a recent update.
    That could mean some students will start their fall semester before they get key information about how much that’s going to cost. It also marks “the first admission” by Education Department that the FAFSA won’t be fully functional until after the start of the 2024-25 award year, which began July 1, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. 
    “Time is so critical when students are making decisions,” Ellucian’s Ipsen said.
    “The sooner you can get an offer into students’ hands, the more likely they are to take it,” she said. And it’s not just about whether they will get to go to their top choice school, she added, but whether they go to college at all.

    The FAFSA is still an obstacle

    As of June 21, still only 45% of new high school graduates have completed the FAFSA, according to the National College Attainment Network. A year ago, that number stood at 52%.
    Submitting a FAFSA is one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, the National College Attainment Network also found. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to immediately enroll in college. 
    The FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal aid money, including loans, work study and grants, the latter of which are the most desirable kinds of assistance because they typically do not need to be repaid.
    Greenberg advises the students he works with to explore other sources of merit-based aid, as much as possible.
    “A lot of people assume that only the most elite students will get merit money, that’s not necessarily true at all,” he said. “We have students going to private colleges much more cheaply than they would state colleges.”
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    What the new IRS guidance on crypto tax reporting means for investors

    The U.S. Department of the Treasury and IRS on Friday released final tax reporting rules for digital asset brokers.
    Mandatory yearly reporting will phase in starting in 2026, which will cover gross sales from 2025.
    However, investors need to assign basis, or original purchase prices, for each crypto wallet before 2025, experts say.

    Recep-bg | E+ | Getty Images

    The U.S. Department of the Treasury and IRS on Friday released final tax reporting rules for digital asset brokers — and crypto investors have limited time to prepare, experts say.
    Mandatory yearly reporting will phase in starting in 2026, with digital currency brokers required to cover gross proceeds from sales in 2025 via Form 1099-DA. In 2027, brokers must include cost basis, or purchase price, for certain digital asset sales for 2026.  

    “These regulations are an important part of the larger effort on high-income individual tax compliance,” IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said in a statement. “We need to make sure digital assets are not used to hide taxable income, and these final regulations will improve detection of noncompliance in the high-risk space of digital assets.”
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    Enacted in 2021 via the Inflation Reduction Act, yearly digital asset reporting was estimated to raise nearly $28 billion over a decade, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. However, the original start date was postponed.
    The new IRS regulations come roughly four months after the agency hired two former crypto executives to improve digital currency service, reporting, compliance and enforcement programs.
    “Everybody’s been waiting for the tidal wave of this enforcement activity,” James Creech, an attorney and senior manager at accounting firm Baker Tilly, previously told CNBC.

    Basis will be ‘specific to the wallet’

    With limited reporting on basis, crypto investors have the chance to establish a “reasonable allocation” before Jan. 1, 2025, according to an IRS revenue procedure released Friday.
    Taxpayers need to assign basis for each digital currency wallet by the end of 2024, said Matt Metras, a Rochester, New York-based enrolled agent and owner of MDM Financial Services.  

    If you bought digital currency over several years across multiple wallets, you currently have “different basis lots,” he said.
    Crypto tax software often uses the best basis from your combined accounts to calculate gains. But going forward, each asset’s basis must be “specific to the wallet,” Metras said.
    It’s important to establish digital currency basis because, generally, if you can’t prove your basis, the IRS considers it zero, which calculates a bigger profit.

    ‘The most important tax year’ for reporting

    The new crypto tax reporting rules won’t apply to the upcoming tax season.
    However, “2024 is the most important tax year for crypto investors to be reporting,” said Andrew Gordon, tax attorney, certified public accountant and president of Gordon Law Group.

    2024 is the most important tax year for crypto investors to be reporting.

    Andrew Gordon
    President of Gordon Law Group

    For 2024, you still need to collect crypto data and properly report activity, including your cost basis. Starting in 2025, the IRS will have a “firehose of information” to verify whether past reporting was accurate, Gordon said. More

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    ‘NEETS’ and ‘new unemployables’ — why some young adults aren’t working

    Although the unemployment rate is just 4%, there is a growing share of young adults not working.
    “NEETS” are opting out of the labor force by choice.
    Others, referred to as “new unemployables,” are struggling to find employment despite their best efforts.

    Klaus Vedfelt | Digitalvision | Getty Images

    Although the unemployment rate has spent 30 months at or below below 4% — a near record — not everyone who wants a job has one. And not everyone even wants a job at all.
    Some, referred to as “NEETs,” which stands for “not in employment, education, or training,” are opting out of the labor force largely because they are discouraged by their economic standing.

    Others, alternatively, are well-qualified but often younger candidates who are struggling to find positions, comprising a contingent of “new unemployables,” according to a recent report by Korn Ferry. 

    Among 16- to 24-year-olds, the unemployment rate rose to 9% in May, which is “typical,” according to Alí Bustamante, a labor economist and director of the Worker Power and Economic Security program at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank based in New York City.
    Although the youth unemployment rate fell below 7% in 2023, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, such lows were “emblematic of how hot the labor market was at that point,” Bustamante said.
    “9% is basically what we should be expecting during relatively good economic times for younger workers,” he added.

    ‘NEETS’ feel ‘left out and left behind’

    Still, some young adults in the U.S. are neither working nor learning new skills.

    In 2023, about 11.2% of young adults ages 15 to 24 in the U.S. were considered as NEETs, according to the International Labour Organization.
    In other words, roughly one in 10 young people are “being left out and left behind in many ways,” Bustamante said.
    Even though “that’s typically the norm,” he said, “we should be expecting these rates to be lower.”
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    Young men, especially, are increasingly disengaged, according to Julia Pollak, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter.
    “The NEET trend is mostly a male phenomenon,” she said.
    Pollak explained that’s in part due to declining opportunities in traditionally male occupations, such as construction and manufacturing, while “women’s enrollment in schooling, education outcomes, and employment outcomes have mostly trended upwards.”

    ‘Talent hoarding’ has led to ‘new unemployables’

    According to Korn Ferry’s report, a “perfect storm” has also created a glut of “new unemployables,” or highly trained workers who struggle to find job opportunities.
    “Employers are holding on to the talent they have and increasingly focusing on talent mobility,” said David Ellis, senior vice president for global talent acquisition transformation at Korn Ferry.
    This “talent hoarding” has led to fewer available job openings even for well-qualified candidates, he said.

    At the same time, firms are scaling back on new hires, limiting the opportunities at the entry level, as well.
    While the teen employment rate is the highest it has been in over a decade, early 20-somethings are struggling to find jobs, Pollak said. “It’s the 20- to 24-year-olds that saw a massive drop off in the labor force participation during the pandemic, and who have lagged behind ever since.”
    Overall, hiring projections for the class of 2024 fell 5.8% from last year, according to a report from the National Association of Colleges and Employers, or NACE.
    As more candidates compete for fewer positions, stretches of unemployment are also lengthening. Now, the number of people unemployed for longer than six months is up 21%, Korn Ferry found.

    ‘Unemployable’ to employable

    Despite those trends in the job market, “all is not lost,” Ellis said.
    “Don’t wait to reach out,” he advised. Get back in touch with former employers or colleagues through LinkedIn or email and set up informational interviews. After that initial approach, ask for any job leads or contacts.
    In the meantime, make yourself more visible by writing about noteworthy topics in the industry and updating your resume to include keywords and so-called “title tags,” which highlight important elements at the top.
    Finally, don’t limit yourself to roles that include a promotion or a raise, Ellis also advised. Rather, aim for a “career lattice,” which could entail taking lower position to gain skills that will pay dividends later.
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    Biden student loan repayment plan to resume amid legal challenges, federal appeals court rules

    A federal appeals court will allow a key part of Biden’s student loan relief plan to resume as the legal challenges against it unfold.
    The 10th Circuit Court of Appeals granted the Biden administration’s request to stay an order from last week that temporarily blocked a provision of its Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan.

    US President Joe Biden gestures after speaking about student loan debt relief at Madison Area Technical College in Madison, Wisconsin, April 8, 2024. 
    Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images

    A federal appeals court will allow a key part of President Joe Biden’s student loan relief plan to resume as the legal challenges against it unfold.
    In a Sunday ruling, the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals granted the Biden administration’s request to stay an order from last week that temporarily blocked a provision of its Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan.

    The decision is a major win for President Joe Biden, experts say. The SAVE plan was his biggest accomplishment to date in delivering relief to millions of student loan borrowers. So far, around 8 million borrowers have signed up for the new income-driven repayment plan, according to the White House.
    Last week, just as the Biden administration prepared to lower borrowers’ monthly payments under the SAVE plan, a federal judge issued an injunction blocking it from doing so.
    The Department of Justice quickly appealed.
    The appeals court ruling will allow the Biden administration to go ahead with lowering borrowers’ monthly payments.
    Under SAVE, many borrowers pay just 5% of their discretionary income toward their debt each month, and anyone making $32,800 or less has a $0 monthly payment.
    This is breaking news. Please check back for updates. More

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    How long you may live is one of retirement planning’s biggest unknowns. How experts say to get the best estimate

    Effective retirement planning largely depends on the answer to one question: How long will I live?
    Yet no one truly knows the answer to that question.
    Here’s what experts say you should consider to best gauge your plans.

    Peopleimages | Istock | Getty Images

    To effectively plan for your retirement, experts say, you need to watch your savings rate and total nest egg.
    But how much you really need to have set aside depends on another number — your life expectancy.

    Yet that figure is also the most elusive — no one knows how long they will live.
    “Nobody really knows, and that uncertainty is uncomfortable,” said Lisa Schilling, director of practice research at the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, the research arm of the Society of Actuaries.
    The financial industry typically uses age 95 as a default assumption, according to research from HealthView Services, a provider of health-care cost projection software.
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    Instead of planning for one life expectancy number, the Society of Actuaries and American Academy of Actuaries emphasize longevity.

    Longevity risk measures the likelihood someone may live longer than expected and outlive their savings.
    “If you read that life expectancy is 84 and you are planning on your money lasting until 84, there’s a big surprise behind the curtain that you haven’t opened,” Schilling said. “There’s a really good chance for a lot of reasons that you might need your money to last longer than that.”

    Longevity estimates may bring surprises

    The Society of Actuaries and American Academy of Actuaries recently relaunched a free online longevity illustrator.
    The tool asks for basic information on either an individual or a couple: age, sex, retirement age, smoking status and a description of their general health — poor, average or excellent.
    The results aim to provide a “reasonable” estimate of how long you might live, according to the organizations. The illustrations show the probability of living to certain ages, as well as the number of years of life one might live in retirement.
    Generally, the higher your current age, the greater the possibility you may live longer. While life expectancy at birth may be 84, it will be even longer if you’ve already made it to age 65, Schilling said.

    The results may help individuals fully understand the range of possibilities when planning for how long their money may need to last, she said.
    For couples, there is also another revelation that often comes as a surprise. “The chance that at least one of you lives to 90 is even bigger,” Schilling said.
    Yet the financial industry’s assumption of living to age 95 may be too generous, according to recent research from HealthView Services.
    The projected life expectancy for someone who is 65 years old today with no chronic conditions is age 90 for women and age 88 for men.
    Yet only around 5% of people over 60 have no chronic conditions, according to the research.

    Health status affects life expectancy projections

    Chronic health conditions such as high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, high cholesterol, tobacco use, obesity or Parkinson’s disease reduce an individual’s projected life expectancy.
    For example, while a healthy 65-year-old man with no chronic conditions has a 19.3% probability of living to age 95 or longer, that gets reduced to a 17.5% chance if he has high blood pressure, 15.8% if he has cardiovascular disease, 12.5% for high cholesterol, 8.8% for obesity with a body mass index of 35 to 39, 7.4% for tobacco use, 2% for obesity with body mass index of 40 to 44 and to just 0.4% for diabetes, according to the research.
    Those probabilities could mean a huge difference to his retirement funding needs. A healthy 65-year-old man may need around $1.1 million to maintain the 80% income replacement rate he needs if he was earning $100,000 in 2023, according to HealthView Services. This assumes he lives to age 95, has a 6% annual portfolio return, receives Social Security benefits, and inflation is 3%.

    However, if that 65-year-old man has a chronic condition, his life expectancy will be lower. And that could free up more of that retirement nest egg to be spent in other ways, according to HealthView Services.
    High blood pressure could reduce his life expectancy by nine years to age 86, and therefore allow for $447,469 to be used for long-term care planning, emergency savings, money for heirs or other uses, the research found.
    Tobacco use could reduce his life expectancy by 13 years to 82, freeing up $616,245, the research estimates, while diabetes may reduce his lifespan by 16 years, enabling him to spend $727,947.
    Most experts advise individuals to plan for outliving their assets by delaying Social Security retirement benefits or considering an annuity to amplify monthly income.

    How personalized numbers can help

    But considering an individual’s specific health status and how that affects their life expectancy can help personalize financial plans, according to Ron Mastrogiovanni, CEO of HealthView Services.
    “During a planning process, people are more likely to take action if numbers are personalized,” Mastrogiovanni said.
    That doesn’t necessarily require eliminating age 95 assumptions altogether, he said.
    But letting someone know their personal life expectancy can help provide a more reasonable sense of an age to plan to.
    “That doesn’t mean you choose that number” to plan to, Mastrogiovanni said.
    “Whatever makes you comfortable; you want to move out four years, 10 years, you can do that,” he said.
    “But at least you’re working off an actuarial base number.” More

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    Top Wall Street analysts favor these dividend stocks for better returns

    A sign is posted in front of an Olive Garden restaurant on June 20, 2024 in Rohnert Park, California. 
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    Dividend-paying stocks can help investors bolster their portfolios and boost returns.
    Investors searching for these names will need to find companies that have a track record of making steady payments, backed by robust financials.

    Here are three attractive dividend stocks, according to Wall Street’s top pros on TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance.
    Darden Restaurants
    The first dividend stock is Darden Restaurants (DRI), which operates several popular brands in full-service dining, including Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse and Yard House. The company recently announced mixed results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. While Darden exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations, its sales slightly missed the Street’s consensus amid increased discounting by rivals.
    Darden issued $628 million in dividends and committed $454 million to share repurchases in fiscal 2024. Moreover, the company announced a dividend hike of nearly 7%, bringing the quarterly dividend to $1.40 per share. The stock has a dividend yield of 3.5%.
    Following the results, BTIG analyst Peter Saleh reiterated a buy rating on DRI stock with a price target of $175. The analyst highlighted that at the mid-point, Darden’s earnings per share outlook of $9.40 to $9.60 indicates double-digit total shareholder return, which is in line with the company’s long-term targets.
    Saleh thinks that the company can achieve its targeted return metrics, supported by several factors, including a modest rise in pricing, advertising initiatives and easing inflation.

    “We view Darden Restaurants as one of the strongest operators in the industry with historical sales and restaurant margin performance that has consistently exceeded peers,” said Saleh.
    Saleh ranks No. 360 among more than 8,900 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 61% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 11.7%. (See Darden’s Financial Statements on TipRanks)
    International Seaways
    Next up is International Seaways (INSW), a tanker company that offers energy transportation services for crude oil and petroleum products. On June 26, the company paid a combined dividend of $1.75 per share. The company’s combined dividend represented 60% of its first-quarter adjusted net income.
    In its first-quarter results, INSW highlighted that its combined dividend payments of $5.74 per share over the last twelve months reflected a dividend yield of more than 13%.
    Following meetings with INSW’s management, Stifel analyst Benjamin Nolan reaffirmed a buy rating on the stock and increased the price target to $68 from $66. The analyst noted that the tanker market remains cyclically strong due to a continued increase in global oil consumption, the limited supply of new ships and the longer average voyage lengths caused by the ongoing geopolitical troubles.
    Accordingly, Nolan increased his rate assumptions for 2024 and 2025. The analyst expects International Seaways to continue to deliver higher cash flows, fueled by a favorable backdrop for the tanker market.
    Nolan expects INSW to sustain high supplemental dividends, given the estimated $200 million to $300 million of excess cash flow after capital expenditure (assuming there is no new debt associated with tanker acquisitions). “We are modeling $5.51/share in 2024 dividends, although there is room to be a little higher,” said the analyst.
    Nolan ranks No. 68 among more than 8,900 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 67% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 19.5%. (See International Seaways’ Stock Charts on TipRanks)
    Citigroup
    Finally, let’s discuss this week’s third dividend stock, banking giant Citigroup (C). At a quarterly dividend of 53 cents per share, Citigroup offers a yield of 3.3%.
    The bank held its Services Investor Day on June 18. Management expressed confidence about achieving the 2024 guidance, driven by revenue growth across all the core businesses despite macro uncertainty and the possibility of lower interest rates.
    Following the event, Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Ramsden reiterated a buy rating on Citigroup stock and slightly raised his price target to $72 from $71. The higher price target reflects an increase in the analyst’s EPS estimates for 2024, 2025 and 2026 based on management’s commentary, which indicated that the bank’s strategic transformation plan is gaining momentum.
    Ramsden noted that Citi is highly focused on its transformation efforts, with the bank making steady progress on risk control and data quality. Coming to the Services business, the analyst noted that management established strategic priorities for this vital component of the company’s financial targets. The analyst estimates that the Services business will account for 25% of the group revenue growth through 2026.
    “The Services business is well positioned to maintain their market leading positions with potential to continue share gains across businesses,” said Ramsden. The analyst’s optimism is based on Citi’s extensive global network in 95 countries, well-established long-term client relationships, and market share gains that are expected to be driven by investments in technology and innovative offerings.
    Ramsden ranks No. 969 among more than 8,900 analysts tracked by TipRanks. His ratings have been successful 65% of the time, with each delivering an average return of 11.9%. (See Citigroup Technical Analysis on TipRanks) More