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    Billions of Dollars at Stake in a Puzzling Holiday Shopping Season

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    It promises to be unpredictable, with retailers and consumers still figuring out how much will be spent and on what kinds of goods.No one quite knows what to make of this year’s holiday shopping season. But billions of dollars are riding on it.After two pandemic holiday seasons messed with doorbusters, party plans and supply chains, retailers were hoping that this year would be a return to sanity. But just as it started to appear that families and stores could pull out their old playbooks, along came near-record inflation and the war in Ukraine, only increasing general unease about the state of the world.Some things are looking up. The pandemic has receded, supply chains generally stabilized, and the labor market is strong.But in March, the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates to slow down inflation, just as retail executives were making plans for which toys, wreaths and fuzzy socks shoppers would buy come winter. To try to ensure a robust shopping season, retailers leaned in early and often. Christmas trees showed up at Costco in August. Amazon threw what amounted to a second Prime Day in October. And it seems every day has brought ads for Black Friday deals, like the ones that Target offered throughout October.Still, shoppers seem confused. Should they buy now or later? Purchase for a lot of people or put a priority on a few? Give items or shared experiences? Trust online deliveries or go with local shops?“The truth is, we don’t know whether consumers will spend more or less on gift giving or whether they’ll do more shopping online or in the mall,” Etsy’s chief executive, Josh Silverman, told investors recently.That has left companies making predictions for the all-important retail season that amount to a shrug.“We’re not quite sure how strong holiday spending will be versus last year,” Brian Olsavsky, Amazon’s finance chief, told investors in October, “and we’re ready for a variety of outcomes.”Or, as Peter Boneparth, the chair of Kohl’s board, told analysts this month, “I think everybody believes that Christmas will come, but I don’t think anybody out there knows for sure exactly what’s going to happen.”Feeling inflation’s squeezeMathias Wasik for The New York TimesInflation is on everyone’s mind. Higher prices on all sorts of items have made people rethink what they’re buying and whom they’re buying for. While inflation is moderating slightly, it’s at the highest levels since Indiana Jones was bullwhipping raiders of the Lost Ark at the mall cineplex.More on Big TechMicrosoft: The company’s $69 billion deal for Activision Blizzard, which rests on winning the approval by 16 governments, has become a test for whether tech giants can buy companies amid a backlash.Apple: Apple’s largest iPhone factory, in the city of Zhengzhou, China, is dealing with a shortage of workers. Now, that plant is getting help from an unlikely source: the Chinese government.Amazon: The company appears set to lay off approximately 10,000 people in corporate and technology jobs, in what would be the largest cuts in the company’s history.Meta: The parent of Facebook said it was laying off more than 11,000 people, or about 13 percent of its work forceThe National Retail Federation predicts that holiday sales in November and December will increase 6 to 7 percent from last year, but that’s below the rate of inflation.“Folks are really looking for deals this year,” said Melissa Burdick, who spent a decade at Amazon and founded Pacvue, which helps big brands sell online. “They’re shifting what they’re buying to favor lower-priced brands and more necessary items.” She summed up the sentiment as: “I used to want Bose headphones. Now I will buy chips on sale on Amazon.”Cristian Tinoco, 19, who works 45 hours a week at a gym in Seattle and attends community college, said his family would focus on spending Christmas together after a rocky year.“Gas has especially gone up. I probably spend about $400 a paycheck on gas because I commute 35 minutes each way, each day. I have three siblings, so my parents have four kids at home and spend more than $1,000 a month on groceries. I help sometimes pay for food with my paycheck.“My student loan application got messed up, so I’ve been paying for college out of pocket. I don’t want to drop out. I may finally be able to start saving. I want to buy a truck — it just feels like me.”The experience is the thingPeople spent two pandemic years buying stuff. With stimulus checks, rising wages and nowhere to go, last year’s holiday season generated the biggest annual growth in retail spending on record — 14.1 percent.This year, Covid-19 travel restrictions have eased, and masking mandates are virtually gone. Retailers are bracing to lose out on spending as more people go on trips, attend concerts and eat out.The Transportation Security Administration said screenings were up 33 percent from last year, and concert bookings are up 51 percent, according to Eventbrite.“They were reminded that life is very short, and coming out of this pandemic they want to experience life again,” Mike Daher, an executive at the consultancy Deloitte, said.Mary Anna Ball, 25, a ballerina and research analyst in West Virginia, usually starts squirreling away Christmas gifts in July but this year wants to give gifts that will help her family experience the world.“I love sweaters and little kitschy things like that, but I know not everyone is that way, and you’ll kind of remember the experience more than when you’re going through your clothes of, ‘How did I get this sweater?’ If you give an experience, that’s something you’ll remember a bit longer, or maybe it’ll introduce you to a new hobby or something like that.“I have two younger brothers. Some people get siblings tattoos. I refuse to do that. But they’ve said it would be fun to go skydiving one day. I thought, I can get them a voucher and, whenever they can, they can just go down and skydive or something.”Christmas came early in many storesMathias Wasik for The New York TimesGetting what you want this year shouldn’t be a big issue. Remembering last year, when popular items were stuck at ports or somewhere in the Pacific Ocean, brands ramped up production, and retailers ordered more products. They did this earlier than usual to make sure items arrived on time, but the supply chain improved. When orders arrived earlier than expected, retailers piled items in warehouses that in some cases were already stuffed with merchandise ordered in 2021.That, combined with uncertain consumer demand, left retailers with record-high inventories, according to data from the Census Bureau.That’s leading to more deals and a hodgepodge of goods on store floors, no matter the season. In other words, Christmas came early to stores.Mike Campese, a guitarist and instructor in Las Vegas, knew this year was going to be strange when he saw holiday merchandise unusually early.“The other day, I was in Costco, and as soon as you walk in, the very first aisle is the Christmas stuff. It is still September! Oh, my God.“It is the earliest I have seen it. Usually the day after Halloween it’s like the malls are playing Christmas tunes and the decorations are up. Some people go shopping in September. I can’t do that. I am not in the spirit yet.”Waiting on deals, even for everyday itemsAmazon tried its best to hype an early holiday sale at the start of October. Some of the top-selling products in the United States — like Crest Whitestrips and protein powder — weren’t exactly typical presents.“No one is buying gifts for Christmas,” said Jason Murray, an Amazon veteran whose company, Shipium, advises online retailers. “They are buying for themselves.”It doesn’t matter much to retailers, who used the early holiday sales to try to offload products before most shoppers had even picked out their Halloween costumes. But it signaled that shoppers are motivated by deals, no matter what they’re for. After two years of limited discounts, shoppers are showing they are willing to hold out for a bargain.Brands are getting on board. “We made too many,” the bike maker Specialized said on its website, telling customers that they can “save BIG.”Rakuten, an online platform that offers deals and shopper rewards, said retailer participation in Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions was the “biggest in the last three years.”Natalie Rodriguez, 47, who works for the Indiana Department of Revenue, said the products on sale weren’t what she wanted to give for Christmas.“I am really cognizant of those deals that are coming up right now. I think it is a grab to see who gets my money first. Am I taking advantage of it because I perceive it was a deal?“On the Amazon sale, I had 150 things in my cart and saved for later, but I didn’t see anything that is comparable to what I would think is a Black Friday deal. When I was a kid, Black Friday was superlow-cost, like 80 or 90 percent off. Most of what I saw was 30 and 40 percent on some items. It’s like, ‘Nah, I will just pass,’ especially if it is not an essential item. Crest Whitestrips were a great deal, but I don’t need them right now.“All I got was a $50 gift card with a $10 bonus on it.”On-time arrival, finallyFor years, largely spurred on by Amazon, consumers got used to fast shipping — often in two days or less. The pandemic upended that. Driver and inventory shortages meant people had to plan ahead.This year, industry experts do not expect another Shipageddon. There are more than enough delivery and warehouse workers to meet demand. Shippers should be able to deliver 110 million packages a day, almost 20 million more than shoppers are expected to order, according to ShipMatrix, a consultancy.“Because of experiences of what has gone on with global supply chains in the last few years, folks are stretching the holiday season over a longer period,” said Jamil Ghani, the vice president of Amazon Prime.Miranda Rosas, 21, a student at the University of California, Merced, was nervous about late-arriving Christmas gifts, so she started ordering last month.“Shipping last year was so awful, and a lot of items that I ordered a little bit last minute came in time, thankfully, but it took a long time. I tried to start a little sooner.“I really thought that it was going to take a couple weeks or a whole week and then it would ship and then it would take another two weeks to come. Now, a lot of my stuff it’s been like, ‘Oh! Already?’”Luxury is its own thingMathias Wasik for The New York TimesThe vibes are good for people with money to spare.More than three-quarters of luxury shoppers say they plan to spend the same as or more than last year, according to a survey from Saks. Twice as many as last year said they planned on dressing up in formal attire for the holidays, and 40 percent wanted to “self-gift” shoes. Luxury goods companies are giving signals that they’re confident about the U.S. market. This month, Estee Lauder agreed to buy Tom Ford for $2.8 billion, widening its reach into fashion apparel.“Customers are going back to a social life,” said Geoffroy van Raemdonck, chief executive at Neiman Marcus, whose top customers spend an average of $25,000 a year with the brand. “This is one of the first holidays that they feel more comfortable sharing it with their loved ones. I think that there’s a lot of good things coming with the holiday.”Sabah Essa, 49, a style adviser at Neiman Marcus in Atlanta, has been working with her clients, who include doctors, housewives, reality-TV stars and young professionals, to build their holiday wish lists.“Mostly everyone wants a big expensive piece compared to last year. For example, someone maybe got a Prada bag last Christmas, and now they’re upgrading it to high-end jewelry.“They want to find an outfit for going out to dinner or a party or birthday or to grab a gift for another friend. Everybody is just really happy to go out, and they can go without a mask.“A lot of them are also traveling. They want their suitcase to be all new stuff.“One client wants to give his wife 30 different gifts for her turning 30. He wants to have that plus Christmas because her birthday falls right around Christmas. The gifts are all different ranges, from stocking stuffers to high-end jewelry to Chanel bags to shoes — a lot of shoes, from sneakers to heels to boots.“It helps that we offer our clients a glass of champagne when they come in to make it easy for them to shop. Or if they want a cup of tea or coffee. It’s more fun than the years in the past now.”Interviews have been lightly edited for clarity. More

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    Amazon Earnings: Return to Profitability But Slow Growth Signaled Ahead

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    The e-commerce giant, which also turned a profit in its latest quarter, indicated sales in the holiday period might rise at their lowest level since 2001.For much of this year, Amazon’s growth slowed and losses mounted as it faced high costs and changes in people’s shopping habits with the ebbing of the coronavirus pandemic.On Thursday, the e-commerce giant signaled that its business was rebounding. But it also cautioned that growth would be weak, possibly falling to its lowest level since 2001.Amazon, which is headquartered in Seattle, posted $127.1 billion in sales for the third quarter, up 15 percent from a year earlier, showing that high inflation has not pummeled consumer spending. It also returned to profitability, making $2.9 billion after two quarters of losses.At the same time, Amazon projected that sales might slow to as low as 2 percent in the current quarter, which includes the vital holiday shopping season. Those estimates, which fell far short of Wall Street’s expectations, include a forecast that the strong U.S. dollar will continue to depress international sales.The results come amid a rocky patch for tech giants. Microsoft, Meta and others have indicated in their earnings this week that tough days may be ahead. On Thursday, a day after Meta revealed that its profits and sales fell in the most recent quarter, the company’s stock plunged more than 24 percent, to its lowest level in at least five years. Shares of Microsoft and Alphabet, the parent of Google, also have declined this week.More on Big TechBig Tech’s Slowdown: Amid stubborn inflation and rising interest rates, Google, Meta, Microsoft and other Silicon Valley giants are signaling that tough days may be ahead.App Store Battle: Spotify wants to get into the audiobooks business, but Apple has rejected its new app three times. The standoff is the latest in a series of confrontations between the companies.Inside Meta’s Struggles: After a rocky year, employees at Meta are expressing skepticism, confusion and frustration over Mark Zuckerberg’s vision for the metaverse.A Deal for Twitter?: In a surprise move, Elon Musk has offered to acquire Twitter at his original price of $44 billion, which could bring to an end the acrimonious legal fight between the billionaire and the company.“We are seeing signs all around that people’s budgets are tight, inflation is still high, energy costs are an additional layer,” Brian Olsavsky, Amazon’s finance chief, said on a call with reporters. “We are preparing for what could be a slower growth period.”He added that demand was particularly weakening in Europe, where inflation and rising fuel costs from the war in Ukraine have affected consumers.Amazon’s stock dropped more than 19 percent in after-hours trading.Prices are rising, but the volume of items selling is falling, said Guru Hariharan, whose company, CommerceIQ, advises large consumer brands that sell products on Amazon. “That is a very concerning trend,” he said.After two years of breakneck expansion, Amazon has spent much of this year putting on the brakes. Andy Jassy, who took over as chief executive last year, has moved to swiftly cut costs after the company overbuilt in anticipation of an extended pandemic-fueled boom in e-commerce. Amazon has curtailed plans to open warehouses and worked to improve the efficiency of its fulfillment operations, and it imposed a hiring freeze for corporate and technology roles for its retail division.In the third quarter, Amazon benefited from its annual two-day Prime Day sale in July. In the previous year, Prime Day had been held earlier than July. The company called this year’s event its “biggest ever,” and it generated about $6.8 billion in revenue — about $5 billion more than a typical two days — according to estimates from the investment bank Cowen.Growth in Amazon’s cloud computing division was the slowest on record, increasing 27 percent to $20.5 billion. Amazon Web Services accounted for 16 percent of the company’s total sales but was the only division that produced an operating profit. Mr. Olsavsky said growth slowed in the late summer, as Amazon saw a “lot of customers cutting their bills, which we are glad to help with.”Its international operations, dragged down by the strong dollar, generated $2.5 billion in operating losses.The company employed 1.5 million people by the end of the third quarter, almost 100,000 fewer than at the start of the year.Mr. Olsavsky said Amazon generated more than $1 billion in productivity savings, about half a billion less than executives had hoped. The cost to ship products grew slower than the number of units it sold. But the depressed sales growth makes it harder to operate at optimal efficiency, Mr. Olsavsky said, because the company can best utilize its fulfillment and delivery infrastructure when it has more orders.Amazon’s lucrative advertising business, which Morgan Stanley estimates is worth about $185 billion, grew 25 percent to $9.5 billion, though there was a slowdown over the quarter as advertisers pulled back. The company’s subscription business, primarily Prime membership, grew 9 percent to $8.9 billion.Mr. Olsavsky said overall operating profit was reduced by high costs to market two major video offerings for Prime members — Thursday night football games with the National Football League, and its new “Lord of the Rings” series.In addition to the volatile economic environment, the value of Amazon’s investment in Rivian Automotive, an electric truck maker that has struggled to meet production goals, has added fluctuations to Amazon’s profits this year. That valuation rose $1.1 billion, contributing to Amazon’s profits in the latest quarter. More

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    How Is Your Company Responding to Labor Organizing? We Want to Hear.

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    Employers are taking a variety of approaches to union campaigns.An Amazon Labor Union rally on Staten Island in April.DeSean McClinton-Holland for The New York TimesMaterials being prepared for workers seeking to unionize Starbucks stores.Tony Luong for The New York TimesThere has been a surge in labor organizing among baristas at Starbucks, warehouse workers at Amazon and retail workers at Apple and Trader Joe’s. They have made their voices heard, though only a fraction of each group has joined a union, and some have rejected unionization.We’d like to hear the voices of those farther from the front lines — managers and white-collar workers at those companies, particularly those at corporate headquarters. If you fit this profile, please consider responding to the questions below. Your answers may help us better understand the state of labor relations and inform our reporting.We won’t publish your name or any part of your submission without contacting you first. If you prefer to share tips or thoughts confidentially, you can do so here.Tell us how your employer is dealing with union efforts. More

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    Amazon Labor Union Loses Election at Warehouse Near Albany

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    By a 2-to-1 ratio, the group had its second defeat since a surprise victory in April on Staten Island.Workers at an Amazon facility near Albany, N.Y., have voted decisively against being represented by the upstart Amazon Labor Union, denting efforts to expand unionization across the giant e-commerce company.Employees at the warehouse cast 206 votes to be represented by the union and 406 against, according to a count released on Tuesday by the National Labor Relations Board. Almost 950 workers were eligible to vote.The vote was the Amazon Labor Union’s second unsuccessful election since a surprise victory in April, when workers at an Amazon facility on Staten Island voted to form the first union of the company’s warehouse employees in the United States.“We’re glad that our team in Albany was able to have their voices heard, and that they chose to keep the direct relationship with Amazon,” Kelly Nantel, an Amazon spokeswoman, said in a statement.In recent months, the Amazon Labor Union has debated whether to focus on winning a contract at the Staten Island facility, known as JFK8, or on expanding its reach to other warehouses around the country through additional elections.Christian Smalls, the union’s president, “is very much in favor of trying to create opportunities for as many workers as possible to vote,” said Cassio Mendoza, a JFK8 worker and the union’s communications director. At the same time, the union has felt pressure to demonstrate progress to workers on Staten Island, and has recently stepped up its internal organizing there after months of minimal public activity.The result on Tuesday from the ALB1 warehouse in Castleton-on-Hudson, N.Y., about 10 miles south of Albany, did not appear to dissuade the union from reaching beyond JFK8.More on Big TechIn Australia: Dozens of workers at Apple walked off the job after negotiations over pay and working conditions stalled. This is why the action is significant.Inside Meta’s Struggles: After a rocky year, employees at Meta are expressing skepticism, confusion and frustration over Mark Zuckerberg’s vision for the metaverse.A Deal for Twitter?: In a surprise move, Elon Musk has offered to acquire Twitter at his original price of $44 billion, which could bring to an end the acrimonious legal fight between the billionaire and the company.Hiring Freezes: Amazon is halting corporate hiring in its retail business for the rest of the year, joining Meta as the latest tech companies to pull back amid the economic uncertainty.“We are filled with resolve to continue and expand our campaign for fair treatment for all Amazon workers,” Mr. Smalls said in a statement. “You miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take.”About 80 percent of the union’s budget of more than half a million dollars has been focused on Staten Island, union officials have said. The rest has been set aside for expansion efforts, including at ALB1 and a facility in Southern California that submitted a petition for an election last week.Mr. Smalls said the election “wasn’t free and fair.” Even before the ballots were tallied on Tuesday, the union expressed concern that Amazon had improperly interfered with the vote, potentially laying the groundwork for a legal objection to the result.Labor board staff members have been investigating 27 charges of unfair labor practices that the union filed against Amazon before the voting began, the agency said last week. The union has since lodged additional concerns.One included an accusation that a worker had been suspended for complaining that one of Amazon’s anti-union consultants followed him around and harassed him during the voting period, according to Retu Singla, a lawyer representing the union.“They try to whip votes during the election,” said Mr. Mendoza, who added that the consultant appeared to be wearing worker clothes and an Amazon vest.Another employee, who was not directly involved with the union campaign and requested anonymity, said on the first day of voting that he had seen what appeared to be “fake employees” who were wearing Amazon vests but did not know the basics of the jobs and cast doubt on the union’s ability to negotiate a contract.Matthew Bodie, a former N.L.R.B. lawyer now at the University of Minnesota Law School, said that while one-on-one conversations with workers during the voting period were allowed, seeking to deceive employees by misrepresenting the identity of company agents could amount to interference in the election.Amazon declined to comment on the accusations.The ALB1 warehouse handles oversize items like outdoor equipment and televisions. A recent report by a worker advocacy group found that the facility had the highest rate of serious injuries of any Amazon warehouse in New York for which the group was able to obtain government data.Amazon has emphasized its minimum starting wage and benefits, and has said it has improved its safety record more than other retailers in recent years. In its messaging to workers, it has questioned the Amazon Labor Union’s experience and has said workers could be worse off if they voted for a union.In interviews outside the warehouse in September, some Amazon workers said they were supporting the union because pay was too low, especially in light of how physically taxing the work could be. The company recently raised its starting base wage at the warehouse to $17 an hour, from $15.70.“I think we need a union — we need more pay,” said Masud Abdullah, an employee at the warehouse. He said he had made about $22 an hour at an industrial bakery, but left that job because the hours did not fit with his parenting responsibilities.He and other workers also said they felt Amazon’s disciplinary policies were sometimes arbitrary. “It’s like you don’t have nobody representing you,” Mr. Abdullah said. “They could get you in and out for anything.”Other workers said they didn’t believe a union was necessary because Amazon already provided solid pay and benefits, such as health care and college tuition subsidies. Even some union supporters acknowledged that the company often treated workers well.Some workers expressed skepticism that the Amazon Labor Union would deliver on its promises, such as improving pay. “I feel like I haven’t seen any evidence,” said Jacob Carpenter, who works at the warehouse. He added that he planned to vote no.Amazon has been fighting the union’s successful vote on Staten Island. After a lengthy hearing on the company’s objections to that election, a labor board official recently endorsed the union’s victory. A regional official must still weigh in, but Amazon told workers at JFK8 that it intended to appeal. The union has recently pushed a petition to pressure Amazon to negotiate a contract. More

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    Amid Inflation, Retailers Brace for Strapped Holiday Shoppers

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    Retailers have navigated pandemic closures and supply chain snarls in recent years. But dealing with the fallout from inflation could be an even tougher test.In 2020, it was pandemic closures and social distancing. Last year, it was the supply chain. Now, the problem is demand.For retailers, that may make this holiday season their biggest test yet.The holidays are the most important time of the year for retail. November and December can account for up to a quarter of the annual sales of department stores and specialty retailers. Companies place orders for seasonal and holiday merchandise months in advance so that they have enough stock on hand. The primacy of the holiday season has pretty much held steady, even during the turbulence of the pandemic. Whether through curbside pickup operations or a pivot to more expensive air deliveries during last season’s crunch, retailers still benefited from people ready to spend on all manner of products.Now, as Americans head into the season when they’re prodded to spend with abandon on holiday gifts, they aren’t showing the same willingness to do so.“You’ve had consumers that have had to weather a lot,” said Vivek Pandya, a lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, pointing to higher prices for gas, groceries and everyday services that have defied the Federal Reserve’s efforts to control inflation.Overall consumer demand for everyday goods and services remains robust and prices continue to increase at a faster-than-expected pace, but nearly 60 percent of U.S. shoppers say finances are factoring into their holiday shopping decisions, according to a survey by Sensormatic Solutions released this month. That’s up from 14 percent last year. One in five holiday shoppers will spend less this season because of a changed economic situation, a recent survey from the NPD Group, a marketing research firm, found.This holiday season, retailers “have to think about and pivot a little bit more to win the consumer compared to only thinking about the profit margin from the purchase,” Mr. Pandya said. “Now, with demand being weaker, they really have to go out of their way to advertise to consumers and get consumers with the highest likelihood to spend.”But discounts eat into retailers’ profit margins, and they have been able to employ that strategy only sparingly in recent years. During last year’s holiday season, in particular, retailers recorded bigger margins thanks to supply chain logjams. Inventory was low, and shoppers were clamoring to get their hands on products. The result: fewer discounts.“A lot of that is going to reverse, if not more than reverse, across department stores and specialty apparel,” said David Silverman, a senior director at Fitch Ratings. “Consumers are less compelled to buy, and they’re going to need the call to action.”A difficult holiday season for retailers could lead to restructurings and layoffs in 2023.John Taggart for The New York TimesIt’s a very difficult time for any company that sells things. The Fed has spent this year trying to combat near-record inflation by raising interest rates to tamp down consumer spending. Retailers have too much merchandise that shoppers no longer want. Consumer spending on durable goods has been easing over the past couple of months, according to data from the St. Louis Fed. Many retailers have recently revised their full-year financial outlooks, halted hiring and closed stores.Amazon is freezing corporate hiring for its retail business for the rest of the year. Peloton is laying off about 12 percent of its work force in its fourth round of job cuts this year. FedEx is halting hiring and closing stores as demand falls. Walmart plans to hire fewer seasonal workers this year. The Gap is cutting 500 corporate positions.Inflation F.A.Q.Card 1 of 5What is inflation? More

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    Amazon Labor Union, With Renewed Momentum, Faces Next Test

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    The Amazon Labor Union has built momentum leading up to an election this week at an 800-person warehouse near Albany, N.Y.A federal labor official recently endorsed the union’s election victory at a Staten Island warehouse in April, which Amazon has challenged, while workers’ frustrations over pay and safety have created an opportunity to add supporters and pressure the company to bargain.But the union faces questions about whether it can translate such opportunities into lasting gains. For months after its victory at the 8,000-person warehouse on Staten Island, the union appeared to be out of its depths. It nearly buckled under a crush of international media attention and lost a vote at a second Staten Island warehouse in May.At times, it has neglected organizing inside the original warehouse, known as JFK8, where high turnover means the union must do constant outreach just to maintain support — to say nothing of expanding. Christian Smalls, the union’s president and a former JFK8 employee, seemed distracted as he traveled widely. There was burnout and infighting in the group, and several core members left or were pushed out.“It wasn’t clear what goal we should be working towards,” said Cassio Mendoza, a JFK8 worker and the union’s communications director, alluding to the sometimes competing priorities of pushing for a contract and organizing more warehouses.The election near Albany, to be spread out over four days between Wednesday and Monday in Castleton-on-Hudson, could help determine whether the earlier problems were natural growing pains or a sign of deeper dysfunction.Amazon employees at the barbecue signed a petition calling on the company to negotiate with the union. DeSean McClinton–Holland for The New York TimesAmazon has cast doubt on the Amazon Labor Union’s experience and says it doesn’t believe that the union represents workers’ views. The company said it was investing $1 billion over the next year to permanently raise hourly pay.Among the union’s biggest diversions in recent months was countering Amazon’s attempt to overturn its victory, which consumed time and resources, as supporters and leaders testified in hearings that dragged across 24 business days beginning in mid-June. The union delayed plans to train more workers as organizers. A national organizing call was put on hold.Just before Labor Day, the National Labor Relations Board official running the hearings recommended rejecting Amazon’s challenge and certifying the union. A regional official must still weigh in.More on Big TechInside Meta’s Struggles: After a rocky year, employees at Meta are expressing skepticism, confusion and frustration over Mark Zuckerberg’s vision for the metaverse.A Deal for Twitter?: In a surprise move, Elon Musk has offered to acquire Twitter at his original price of $44 billion, which could bring to an end the acrimonious legal fight between the billionaire and the company.Hiring Freezes: Amazon is halting corporate hiring in its retail business for the rest of the year, joining Meta as the latest tech companies to pull back amid the economic uncertainty.TikTok Nears Deal with U.S.: The Biden administration and the Chinese-owned video app have drafted a preliminary agreement to resolve national security concerns over the platform, but hurdles remain over the terms.The finding appeared to bolster the union within the Staten Island warehouse, though management responded by sending workers a message saying the company intended to appeal. “We believe a direct relationship with you is best,” the message said.Around the same time, the union began to refocus. It opened an office on Staten Island in late August, hired two full-time staff members and set up a database tracking worker support. “I feel we are in a better place than we have ever been,” Mr. Mendoza said.The union brought in prominent labor organizers to lead regular in-person training on how to push for a contract. It finally held two calls in an effort to recruit and train leaders for organizing drives nationwide.“Your building could be next, and that is why we are having this call,” Madeline Wesley, an Amazon employee who is a lead Amazon Labor Union organizer for the second Staten Island warehouse, said on one call. Workers who indicated they were from facilities in Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio and Washington took part.The union, which says it has set aside about one-fifth of its more than half-million-dollar budget for expansion, is already backing other organizing campaigns, including the one in Castleton-on-Hudson and another at a warehouse east of Los Angeles. Nannette Plascencia, a self-described “soccer mom” who is the California facility’s lead organizer, met Mr. Smalls at a party in Hollywood and decided that the Amazon Labor Union “understood where we were coming from,” she recalled in an interview.On Tuesday, the union submitted a petition for an election to represent workers at Ms. Plascencia’s warehouse, according to the N.L.R.B. Officials have yet to verify whether the union demonstrated enough support to warrant an election.“Check out the Amazon 25-cent raise — we’re not falling for that,” Christian Smalls, the union’s president, said at the barbecue.DeSean McClinton–Holland for The New York TimesIn late September, Amazon told workers that it was increasing hourly wages to reflect local market conditions, pledging to raise them by more than $1 in many warehouses. But at JFK8, where pay started at $18.25 an hour, the raise was between 25 cents and 75 cents an hour, depending on level and tenure.“It’s not enough to buy groceries,” said Celia Camasca, an employee of the warehouse there. “It would be better if they would have said nothing.”The union emphasized the slim raise at a barbecue outside the warehouse that had been coincidentally planned for an afternoon shortly after workers learned about it. “Check out the Amazon 25-cent raise — we’re not falling for that,” said Mr. Smalls, the union’s president and the event’s M.C.Union officials circulated a petition demanding that Amazon come to the bargaining table and that it give workers on Staten Island an immediate cost-of-living wage increase. Brandon Wagner, a packer who said that he had worked at the warehouse for about a month and that he previously made $17 an hour at a Wendy’s, signed the petition while waiting in line for food because, he said, workers are underpaid.Paul Flaningan, an Amazon spokesman, said that the national average pay for most frontline jobs was more than $19 an hour and that the company offered “comprehensive benefits” for full-time employees, including health insurance from Day 1, paid parental leave and 401(k) matching.The union still faces numerous obstacles. Amazon could spend years appealing the election result on Staten Island, and the company still has enormous power over JFK8 workers. After workers protested Amazon’s response to a fire at the site last week, the company suspended more than 60 of them with pay while, it said, it investigated what had occurred. The union filed unfair-labor-practice charges over the suspensions; Amazon said most of the workers had returned to work.The voting near Albany presents the union with its most visible immediate test.In interviews outside the warehouse, which handles oversize items like lawn mowers and televisions, many workers cited safety concerns and said pay was too low given the difficulty of the work. New workers made a base wage of $15.70 an hour before an increase of $1.30 this month.Heather Goodall is a leader of the union effort at Amazon’s warehouse in Castleton-on-Hudson, N.Y.DeSean McClinton–Holland for The New York TimesSome also complained that Amazon was too quick to discipline workers for minor infractions.David Bornt, who scans in merchandise before placing it in bins, said a misunderstanding over a quota had recently led to his being written up. He argued that a union could ease such stresses.“It’s someone to have your back,” Mr. Bornt said. “I have four kids, one on the way. I can’t be worried about losing my job at any minute.”Other employees said they opposed the union because they were satisfied with their pay and benefits and didn’t see how a union could improve the situation.“There’s just no need for it,” said Anthony Hough, one of those workers. “We just got a raise.”According to government data, Albany is one of the most unionized metropolitan areas in the country, and many employees expressed positive views about unions. But some said past experience at unionized workplaces made them less eager to join another one. Some also said they distrusted the Amazon Labor Union in particular.“The A.L.U. is new,” said Jacob Carpenter, another employee. “They’re not giving us any information.”The election outcome is likely to shape perceptions of the union. Heather Goodall, the lead organizer at the warehouse, is a member of the Amazon Labor Union’s board, and leaders of the union like Connor Spence, its treasurer, have visited the Albany area regularly. Mr. Smalls has traveled there as well.Ms. Goodall said she was concerned about safety at the warehouse. An Amazon spokesman said the company had a better overall safety record than other retailers. DeSean McClinton–Holland for The New York TimesMs. Goodall said she joined Amazon in February to help unionize the warehouse because she was concerned about unusually high injury rates, among other safety issues. The facility was evacuated after a cardboard compactor caught fire last week, two days after the JFK8 fire, which was similar.“The timeline to fix things is before something tragic happens,” Ms. Goodall said.She accused Amazon of running an aggressive anti-union campaign, including regular meetings with employees in which it questions the union’s credibility and suggests that workers could end up worse off if they unionize.Mr. Flaningan, the company spokesman, said that while injuries increased as Amazon trained hundreds of thousands of new workers in 2021, the company believed that its safety record surpassed that of other retailers over a broader period.“Like many other companies, we hold these meetings because it’s important that everyone understands the facts about joining a union and the election process itself,” he said, adding that the decision to unionize is up to employees. More

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    Regulators Accuse Amazon of Singling Out Union Organizers for Discipline

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    National Labor Relations Board officials said the company had applied its workplace rules unfairly, and asked it to change or scrap the regulations.Federal labor regulators have moved to force Amazon to scrap a rule that governs employees’ use of nonwork areas, accusing the company of illegally singling out union supporters in enforcing the policy.A complaint issued on Tuesday by the National Labor Relations Board’s Brooklyn office said Amazon “selectively and disparately enforced the rule,” which applied to distributing materials and to solicitation activities, “by discriminatorily applying it against employees who engaged in union activity.”The complaint amounted to a finding of merit in a charge brought by the Amazon Labor Union, which mounted organizing efforts — one successful, one not — at two warehouses on Staten Island this year. The case will be litigated before an administrative law judge unless it is settled beforehand, and Amazon could appeal an adverse ruling to the national labor board in Washington.The complaint said the company applied the solicitation policy unlawfully when it prohibited workers from posting a pro-union sign in a nonwork area at one of the Staten Island warehouses, known as LDJ5. The company threatened discipline if the workers posted the sign or did not remove the sign, according to the complaint, which also said at least one worker was disciplined under the solicitation policy.The complaint also accuses the company of disciplining two workers to discourage them from engaging in union activity.After winning a vote to represent roughly 8,000 workers at another Staten Island warehouse, JFK8, the union lost an election at LDJ5 by a wide margin in May.Under Amazon’s stated policy, employees are prohibited from soliciting co-workers for, say, financial contributions on company grounds during work time, or from distributing nonwork-related material in work areas. The policy also prevents nonemployees from conducting any kind of solicitation on company grounds.The labor board’s complaint said Amazon could reinstate the policy only if it explicitly stated that the policy did not apply to organizing and related activity by workers, known as protected concerted activity. The complaint also seeks to require that all supervisors, managers, security personnel and outside consultants hired by Amazon receive training on workers’ federally-protected labor rights. It could affect most of the company’s roughly one million employees nationwide.(The complaint is not clear on whether the training would be nationwide or only in the New York region, and a spokeswoman for the labor board was not immediately able to clarify.)“Amazon is committing flagrant human rights violations by unlawfully disciplining A.L.U. supporters and prohibiting union organizing in the company’s break rooms,” said Connor Spence, the union’s treasurer, in a statement. “Union organizing in employer break rooms is a protected right mandated by the National Labor Relations Board.” Paul Flaningan, an Amazon spokesman, said in a statement, “These allegations are completely without merit, and we look forward to showing that through the process.”The complaint comes at an important moment for the Amazon Labor Union. This month, a hearing officer for the labor board recommended rejecting Amazon’s formal challenge to the union’s JFK8 victory. (Amazon has said it will probably appeal a ruling on this question.) But defending the victory consumed time that the union had hoped to spend on pushing for a contract at the warehouse.In October, the labor board will hold an election involving the union and roughly 400 workers at an Amazon warehouse in Albany, N.Y.Karen Weise More