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    Trump’s Plans to Scrap Climate Policies Has Unnerved Green Energy Investors

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump is expected to roll back many of the rules and subsidies that have attracted billions of dollars from the private sector to renewable energy and electric vehicles.Money is the mother’s milk of politics, but the outcome of elections also determines where it flows — and last month’s was especially crucial for the energy industry.Clean investment — including renewable energy as well as the manufacturing of electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels — has boomed since the passage of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, championed by President Biden. In the third quarter of 2024, it reached a record $71 billion, according to a tracker maintained by the Rhodium Group, an energy-focused research firm, and M.I.T.The big question looming now on Wall Street: Will President-elect Donald J. Trump, who called Mr. Biden’s policies the “green new scam” during the campaign, pull back enough of those subsidies and regulations to meaningfully change the economics of investing in decarbonization?Market reactions right after the election seemed clear. Clean energy stocks dropped sharply, while shares of oil companies bounced, indicating a divergent view of how the two sectors will fare in the coming years.Near the top of Mr. Trump’s agenda next year is extending his 2017 tax cuts. He will most likely need to reduce spending elsewhere to do that. Clean energy tax credits — worth about $350 billion over just the next three years, according to the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation — would be a tempting target. The more those subsidies are pared, the more projects would no longer make financial sense.President Biden has championed the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and other policies designed to address climate change and spur investment in cleaner forms of energy.Kenny Holston/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How a Government Shutdown Could Affect the Economy

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    A federal government shutdown probably wouldn’t be enough to derail the solid U.S. economy. But it could inject more uncertainty into an already murky economic outlook.Funding for the federal government will lapse at the end of Friday if Congress doesn’t reach a deal to extend it. It is still possible that legislators will act in time to prevent a shutdown, or will restore funding quickly enough to avoid significant disruptions and minimize any economic impact.But if the standoff lasts beyond the weekend, most federal offices will not open Monday, and hundreds of thousands of government employees will be told not to work. Others will be required to work without pay until the government reopens.For those workers and their families, the consequences could be serious, especially if the impasse drags on. Federal law guarantees that government workers will eventually receive back pay, but that may not come in time for those living paycheck to paycheck. And the back-pay provisions don’t apply to consultants or contractors. During the last government shutdown — a partial lapse in funding in late 2018 and early 2019 — federal workers lined up at food pantries after going weeks without pay.For the economy as a whole, the effects of a shutdown are likely to be more modest. Many of the most important government programs, like Social Security and Medicare, would not be affected, and government services that are deemed “essential,” such as air traffic control and aviation security, can continue at least temporarily. Federal workers who put off purchases are likely to make them once their paychecks restart.Forecasters at Goldman Sachs estimate that a shutdown would exert a small but measurable drag on the economy, reducing quarterly economic growth by about 0.15 percentage points for every week the lapse in funding continues. Most of that toll, though not all, would reverse in the next quarter. Other forecasters have released similar estimates.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Economy Is Finally Stable. Is That About to Change?

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump’s proposals on tariffs, immigration, taxes and deregulation may have far-reaching and contradictory effects, adding uncertainty to forecasts.After five years of uncertainty and turmoil, the U.S. economy is ending 2024 in arguably its most stable condition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.Inflation has cooled. Unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. The recession that many forecasters once warned was inevitable hasn’t materialized.Yet the economic outlook for 2025 is as murky as ever, for one major reason: President-elect Donald J. Trump.On the campaign trail and in the weeks since his election, Mr. Trump has proposed sweeping policy changes that could have profound — and complicated — implications for the economy.He has proposed imposing steep new tariffs and deporting potentially millions of undocumented immigrants, which could lead to higher prices, slower growth or both, according to most economic models. At the same time, he has promised policies like tax cuts for individuals and businesses that could lead to faster economic growth but also bigger deficits. And he has pledged to slash regulations, which could lift corporate profits and, possibly, overall productivity. But critics warn that such changes could increase worker injuries, cause environmental damage and make the financial system more prone to crises over the long run.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    High on Hope, Wall St. Hears What It Wants From Trump

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    Investors and executives are often emphasizing what they like in the president-elect’s agenda, while dismissing what they don’t as mere posturing.If you ask many a Wall Street investor, tax cuts are poised for extension, deregulation is all but guaranteed, immigration reform for high-skill workers has real potential and President-elect Donald J. Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) might just cut the deficit.Tariffs, by contrast, are a mere bargaining chip. Immigrant expulsions will probably be limited, and there is no way on earth that the incoming White House would meddle with the independent Federal Reserve.Hope has been riding high in financial markets and corporate boardrooms in the month-and-change since the presidential election. But it is often predicated on a bet: Many of the optimists are choosing to believe that the Trump promises they want to see fulfilled are going to become reality, while dismissing those they think would be bad for the economy as mere posturing.“A lot of people are using deductive reasoning and concluding that he’ll only do things that are good for the market,” said Julia Coronado, founder of the research firm MacroPolicy Perspectives. “They can ride this wave of hope-ium through the end of January,” she said, adding that much of it “feels delusional.”There’s a reason for the hope: Many investors believe that markets themselves will act as a bulwark against extreme proposals.Mr. Trump does care enormously about financial markets, and particularly the stock market. He points to it as a marker of success in a way that few if any presidents have ever done. And during his first term in office, he sometimes backed away from more extreme plans — like an idea to oust the Fed chair — when they caused markets to plummet.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Jerome Powell and the Fed Head for Another Collision with Trump

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    Rates may not come down as much or as quickly as had been expected, just as Trump — a self-declared “low-rate guy” — returns to the White House.Inside the halls of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters overlooking Constitution Avenue in Washington D.C., casual mentions of the incoming Trump administration are cautious and infrequent. That’s by design.Donald J. Trump had a fraught relationship with the politically independent Fed during his first term. The president wanted central bankers to lower interest rates more aggressively and faster than they thought was economically appropriate. When officials refused to comply, he blasted them as “boneheads” and an “enemy.” He flirted with trying to fire Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair. He tried (and failed) to appoint loyalists to central bank leadership roles.As the Fed enters a new Trump era with interest rates higher than they were at any point in his first term, tensions seem poised to escalate once again — and America’s central bank is on high alert.Fed analysts try to avoid casually discussing tariffs in email or Microsoft Teams meetings, wary that the information could become public and make the Fed look anti-Trump, according to one staff economist who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. Hallway chatter has taken a negative tone but is often studiously generic and apolitical, according to people familiar with the mood inside the building who also requested anonymity. And while Fed officials and economists have had to begin to consider what Mr. Trump’s promised policies might do to growth and inflation, they have avoided publicly speculating.Central bankers are, in effect, keeping their heads down to stay out of the limelight. But try as they might, they appear destined for another crash course with Mr. Trump.The president-elect promised “interest rates cuts the likes of which you have never seen before” while campaigning. Fed officials have been cutting rates since September and are on course to lower them further as inflation cools, but they are unlikely to reduce them as much as Mr. Trump is hoping.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Fed Minutes Show Options Are Open on Interest Rate Cuts

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    Minutes from a Nov. 6-7 meeting showed that Federal Reserve policymakers favored lowering rates “gradually.”Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting offered little signal about whether officials would cut interest rates at their next gathering, though they suggested that policymakers did expect to continue to lower borrowing costs “gradually” over time.The account of the central bank’s Nov. 6-7 meeting, released on Tuesday, showed that Fed officials still planned to cut interest rates further. But with the job market holding up better than expected and the economy growing at a solid clip, they are in no rush to slash them rapidly.Fed officials thought it “would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” the minutes showed.At the moment, central bankers think that their policy rate — which is set to a range of 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent — is “restrictive,” which means it is high enough to weigh on growth.That’s by design. Policymakers lifted rates to high levels in 2022 and 2023 to make borrowing more expensive, hoping to cool the economy and wrestle rapid inflation under control. But over the past year, inflation has been slowing toward the Fed’s 2 percent goal, and the unemployment rate had begun to nudge higher.Given that, officials began to cut rates in September, then made a second rate cut in November. The goal was to ease off the economic brakes a little, allowing the economy to slow gently without risking a painful crash. When Fed officials last released economic forecasts, in September, policymakers expected to make one final quarter-point rate cut in 2024.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Trump’s Plans for Mass Deportations, Tariffs and Fed Could Affect the Economy

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    Predicting how White House policy is going to affect the American economy is always fraught with uncertainty. Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House has taken the doubt up a notch.Mr. Trump has proposed or hinted at a range of policies — including drastically higher tariffs, mass deportations, deregulation and a fraught relationship with the Federal Reserve as it sets interest rates — that could shape the economy in complex ways.“There are two multiplicative sources of uncertainty: One, of course, is what they’re going to do,” said Michael Feroli, the chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan. “The other is: Even if you know what they’re going to do, what is it going to mean for the economy?”What forecasters do know is that America’s economy is solid heading into 2025, with low unemployment, solid wage gains, gradually declining Federal Reserve interest rates, and inflation that has been slowly returning to a normal pace after years of rapid price increases. Factory construction took off under the Biden administration, and those facilities will be slowly opening their doors in the coming years.But what comes next for growth and for inflation is unclear — especially because when it comes to huge issues like whether or not to assert more control over the Federal Reserve, Mr. Trump is getting different advice from different people in his orbit. Here are some of the crucial wild cards.Tariffs: Likely Inflationary. How Much Is Unclear.If economists agree about one thing regarding Mr. Trump’s policies, it is that his tariff proposals could boost prices for consumers and lift inflation. But the range of estimates over how much is wide.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More