Bessent, Scott

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Trump Expands Trade Threats in Global Game of Chicken

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Trade wars with allies could spiral as the president tries to get trading partners to back down from retaliation with new threats of his own.For the second time this week, President Trump has threatened to disrupt trade with a close ally for retaliating in a trade war that he started — a tactic that could lead to compromise, or to economic spats that spiral further out of control.On Thursday morning, Mr. Trump tried to cow the European Union into submission, threatening in a social media post to put a 200 percent tariff on European wine and Champagne unless the bloc dropped a 50 percent tariff on U.S. whiskey. The European Union had imposed that tariff in response to levies that Mr. Trump put on global steel and aluminum on Wednesday.Mr. Trump deployed a similar tactic against Canada on Tuesday, threatening to double 25 percent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to try to get Ontario to lift a surcharge on electricity sold to the United States. The province had imposed the charge after Mr. Trump put other tariffs on Canada this month.After Ontario suspended its surcharge, Mr. Trump walked back his threats.Over the last several weeks, Mr. Trump has presided over a confusing and potentially economically devastating back and forth of tariffs and tariff threats, playing a global game of chicken as he tries to get some of the United States’ closest allies and trading partners to back down.Mr. Trump has wielded the tariff threats without regard for their economic consequences and, increasingly, seemingly without regard for the impact on stock markets. The S&P 500 slumped again on Thursday after Mr. Trump threatened Europe and reiterated at the White House that he would impose big tariffs.When asked whether he might relent on Canada, which sent a delegation to the United States on Thursday to try to calm trade tensions, Mr. Trump said: “I’m not going to bend at all.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    in Economy

    Trump’s Delay on Mexico and Canada Tariffs Came in Response to Market Revolt

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    With prices still high, the Trump administration is heeding the risks of fanning inflation with import duties.A month ago, President Trump announced that he would impose sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico before reaching a last-minute deal to delay them for 30 days.This week, after markets revolted when the tariffs were put in place, Mr. Trump watered them down with a monthlong reprieve for automakers.And then on Thursday, he opened up even broader exemptions for many other products that are imported from America’s neighbors to the north and south after intense lobbying from business groups that warned of rising prices.Mr. Trump has spent the last month or so bouncing between imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and delaying them because of last-minute deals.“There will,” he said, “always be changes and adjustments.”Despite Mr. Trump’s insistence that “tariff” is among his favorite words, the waffling over import duties reflects the reality that steep import taxes are not an antidote for every policy problem facing the nation.Mr. Trump’s economic advisers continue to contend that the tariffs are part of a broader agenda that will not damage the economy. However, the delays and loopholes reveal that they are beginning to see the risks of taking tariffs too far at a time when the economy is showing signs of strain and consumers are still reeling from inflation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares112 Views

    in Economy

    A Tariff Tantrum: the Upheaval from Trump’s Trade Policies

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    Corporate chiefs see “chaos,” and investors see red as the effect of President Trump’s shifting trade policy begins to weigh on board rooms and trading rooms.The S&P 500 is on pace for its worst week in two years as tariff tensions intensify.Lucas Jackson/ReutersMeltdown The markets have spoken.The S&P 500 is on track for its worst weekly loss since the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis two years ago. And investors have wiped out post-Election Day gains as President Trump’s dizzying start-stop tariff policy fuels volatility on trading floors and in boardrooms.Another test comes this morning with the jobs report due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. It’s expected to show solid growth in hiring even as federal workers brace for mass layoffs. Economic alarm bells are ringing elsewhere. Mohamed El-Erian and Ed Yardeni, two longtime market watchers, see a downturn in the making, with Yardeni warning of a “tariff-induced recession.”Those jitters are colliding with concerns about shifting White House policy. Maximalist moves — freezing funding, axing government jobs, engaging in a trade war — that get rolled back have made it tough for world leaders and corporate chiefs to decipher Trump’s end game. Jim Farley, Ford’s C.E.O., sees only “costs and chaos” from tariffs.A recap: Trump yesterday gave Mexico and Canada a partial tariff reprieve — exempting levies for one month on products covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade pact Trump signed in his first term. Presumably, that buys time to negotiate a truce, though Trump and his trade team have signaled they’re not willing to budge much.Traders still hit the sell button. Trump, who has long cited stock market rallies as a sign his policies are working, blamed “globalists” for tanking stocks. “I’m not even looking at the market, because long term the United States will be very strong with what is happening here,” he told reporters in the Oval Office yesterday.Tariffs and tensions are up. Trump’s levies on aluminum and steel are to go into effect next week, and next month could bring tariffs on agricultural products and automobiles. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada upped the ante, announcing countermeasures on U.S. imports and ominously predicting: “We will continue to be in a trade war that was launched by the United States for the foreseeable future.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 138 Shares96 Views

    in Economy

    Markets and Corporate America Are Unfazed by Washington Chaos, for Now

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    The federal budget debate has big implications for the economy. Businesses are betting that tax cuts will be extended and the math will work out.Even by Washington standards, the second Trump presidency has begun in frenetic fashion: mass firings at federal agencies, tariff threats against allies and foes alike, and haggling over how to get a Republican budget through a narrowly divided Congress.Business leaders and corporate investors are confident that things will turn out fine, at least for them. “Markets aren’t showing all that much concern,” Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at the Glenmede Trust Company, noted.But that could change, with high-stakes implications for the markets and the U.S. economic outlook.Investors fully expect the tax cuts from President Trump’s first term, which mostly benefited businesses and the wealthy, to be fully extended before the end of the year. Trade groups including the Business Roundtable and the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors are confident the extension will be taken care of — especially since not doing so “would impose, effectively, a tax increase,” Mr. Pride added.Still, the arithmetic remains tenuous. The cost of extending the tax cuts may total $4 trillion over 10 years. That means Congress is being left to barter over what else can save or raise money, and whose federal benefits might be cut.The bond market — where traders price the risk of both inflation and an economic downturn — has, for its part, shimmied off moments of worry brought on by Mr. Trump’s boomeranging style of negotiation over tariffs. The bet is that the threats of an import tax are more a geopolitical tool than a key revenue raiser, as the administration has portrayed the tariffs in budget discussions.Some of the underlying calm stems from Wall Street’s confidence in Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. A billionaire hedge fund manager before assuming his new position, he has convinced many analysts that the ultimate suite of policies coming from the White House will be beneficial once it coalesces, and he “has also added to some optimism around lower deficits” in future budgets, according to Matt Luzzetti, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    What Privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Means

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    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were bailed out by the government during the housing crisis nearly 17 years ago. The Trump administration is considering letting them go private again.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two giant mortgage finance firms, have been controlled by the federal government for nearly 17 years, but a long-dormant idea of making them private businesses is starting to make the rounds in Washington again.Scott Turner, the secretary of Housing and Urban Development, said in an interview this week that coordinating the effort to privatize the two firms would be his priority. One of President Trump’s backers, the hedge fund investor William A. Ackman, is calling on the president to quickly move forward on the privatization.But Fannie and Freddie underpin the nation’s $12 trillion mortgage market, so they need to be handled with care. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said last month that any plan for ending the so-called conservatorship of the two firms “should be carefully designed and executed.”The last time Mr. Trump was president, a number of his advisers took steps toward coming up with a plan for releasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government control. In the end, the first Trump administration took no action, and the Biden administration put the issue on the back burner.Here is a quick primer on why Fannie and Freddie are so critical to the mortgage market and some of the issues likely to come up in the debate over how to end the conservatorship.What do Fannie and Freddie do?“No conservatorship should be indefinite,” Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, wrote in a response to questions before his confirmation.Haiyun Jiang for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 100 Shares149 Views

    in Economy

    Trump Tariffs Threaten to Upend Global Economic Order

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    The invoking of national security to unravel trade agreements could scramble the international trading system in China’s favor.President Trump’s move this weekend to slap sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China is threatening to fracture the global trading system and a world economic order that once revolved around a U.S. economy that prized open investment and free markets.The speed and scope of the import duties that Mr. Trump unveiled in executive orders on Saturday prompted widespread criticism from many lawmakers, economists and business groups, who assailed the actions as economic malpractice. They warned that the tariffs, which were levied in response to Mr. Trump’s concerns about fentanyl smuggling and illegal immigration, could inflame inflation, cripple American industries and make China an even more powerful global trade hub.Mr. Trump on Sunday defended the tariffs while acknowledging that there could be some negative consequences.“WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!),” he wrote on social media.The executive orders mean that on Tuesday at 12:01 a.m., all goods imported from Canada and Mexico will be subject to a 25 percent tariff, except Canadian energy products, which will face a 10 percent tariff. All Chinese goods will also face a 10 percent tariff.Canada and Mexico have vowed to retaliate swiftly with tariffs of their own, and China said it would pursue unspecified “countermeasures” to safeguard its interests.Speaking on NewsNation on Sunday, Mr. Trump’s senior trade adviser, Peter Navarro, said it was unlikely that the tariffs would be stopped at the last minute.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 150 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    Trump Chose 8 Economic Experts Who Will Defend Tariffs and Lower Taxes

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump has moved beyond the team-of-rivals approach from his first term and chosen economic aides who will defend tariffs and tax cuts.Alan RappeportAna Swanson and President-elect Donald J. Trump put economic policy at the center of his campaign and, in assembling his economic team, has turned to a group of Wall Street executives, economists, lawyers and academics to help carry out his plans to cut taxes, impose tariffs and slash regulations.In contrast to his first term, when Mr. Trump installed advisers who had disparate views about areas like free trade and tariffs, the men the president-elect has selected this time around have, at least for now, professed to be in sync with his agenda.Still, it remains to be seen how well his advisers work together and whether those with more traditionally conservative views will be willing to go along with Mr. Trump’s unconventional approach to economic policy.Scott BessentTreasury SecretaryStefani Reynolds/BloombergWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 125 Shares109 Views

    in Economy

    The Economy Is Finally Stable. Is That About to Change?

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    President-elect Donald J. Trump’s proposals on tariffs, immigration, taxes and deregulation may have far-reaching and contradictory effects, adding uncertainty to forecasts.After five years of uncertainty and turmoil, the U.S. economy is ending 2024 in arguably its most stable condition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.Inflation has cooled. Unemployment is low. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. The recession that many forecasters once warned was inevitable hasn’t materialized.Yet the economic outlook for 2025 is as murky as ever, for one major reason: President-elect Donald J. Trump.On the campaign trail and in the weeks since his election, Mr. Trump has proposed sweeping policy changes that could have profound — and complicated — implications for the economy.He has proposed imposing steep new tariffs and deporting potentially millions of undocumented immigrants, which could lead to higher prices, slower growth or both, according to most economic models. At the same time, he has promised policies like tax cuts for individuals and businesses that could lead to faster economic growth but also bigger deficits. And he has pledged to slash regulations, which could lift corporate profits and, possibly, overall productivity. But critics warn that such changes could increase worker injuries, cause environmental damage and make the financial system more prone to crises over the long run.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • 113 Shares99 Views

    in Economy

    Can Wall Street Billionaires Deliver on Trump’s Blue-Collar Promise?

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    The president-elect has named wealthy financiers for key economic positions, raising questions about how much they will follow through on promises to help the working class.When Donald J. Trump first ran for the White House in 2016, his closing campaign advertisement lamented the influence of Wall Street in Washington, flashing ominous images of big banks and the billionaire liberal philanthropist George Soros.Now, as president-elect, Mr. Trump has tapped two denizens of Wall Street to run his economic agenda. Scott Bessent, who invested money for Mr. Soros for more than a decade, is his pick for Treasury secretary, and Howard Lutnick, the chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, will be nominated to lead the Commerce Department. Mr. Trump’s choices to lead his economic team show the prominence of billionaire investors in setting an agenda that is supposed to fuel a “blue-collar boom” but that skeptics think will mostly benefit the rich.As Mr. Trump prepares to assume the presidency in January, business owners and investors are closely attuned to which of his economic promises he will ultimately follow through on. He has promised to slash tax rates, impose hefty tariffs on China and other countries, and deport millions of immigrants who work in American farms and businesses.The selections of Mr. Bessent and Mr. Lutnick cement a hold by Wall Street executives over the two most important economic posts in any administration. The picks are drawing blowback from Democrats and left-leaning groups, who assailed Mr. Trump for giving top jobs to rich donors and suggested that they would soon be working to create new tax breaks for the rich, not those who are struggling.“For all his talk of looking out for working-class Americans, President-elect Trump’s choice of a billionaire hedge fund manager to lead the Treasury Department shows he just wants to keep a rigged system that only works for big corporations and the very wealthy,” said Tony Carrk, the executive director of the government watchdog group Accountable.US.Yet the decision to tap Mr. Bessent and Mr. Lutnick is raising speculation that Mr. Trump could take a more market-friendly approach to many of his economic policies than some had feared because of his professed love of tariffs, which had the potential for igniting a global trade war.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More