Biden, Joseph R Jr

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    Trump and Harris Want to Revive Manufacturing, but How Much Could They Actually Do?

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    The policy focus on the industry has changed from job quantity to job quality. And while federal incentives matter, local factors are more important.In recent weeks, the presidential candidates have been tussling over a familiar campaign issue in postindustrial America: how to reinvigorate manufacturing.Former President Donald J. Trump has proposed stiff tariffs on nearly all imports as a way of forcing foreign companies to make their goods in the United States, an escalation of a strategy that did not work during his term. “We’re going to take their factories,” Mr. Trump declared recently.Building on the Biden administration’s approach, Vice President Kamala Harris has promised tax credits and more apprenticeships to strengthen factory towns and invest in advanced technologies, ensuring they “are not just invented in America but built here.”In truth, no president can single-handedly control the growth of specific industries. Larger economic forces like recessions and exchange rates tend to play a much more powerful role. But some policies can help or hinder their progress.Over the last four years, policy and macroeconomic factors have combined to begin reshaping the manufacturing industry. While job growth has been flat for the past two years — as interest rates have clamped down on expansion and a strong dollar has dulled exports — shifts in the composition and location of it are underway beneath the surface.But first, a more fundamental question: Why do politicians care so much about manufacturing, anyway?Which manufacturing sectors have been growing fastest?Domestic output of semiconductors and other electrical components has expanded by 30 percent since the beginning of 2020. Other products, not as much.

    Notes: The semiconductor category includes other components. Source: Federal ReserveBy The New York TimesWhere manufacturing jobs have shifted since the pandemicBetween January 2020 and March 2024, the West Coast and Northeast have lost factory employment while many states in the Southeast have gained.

    Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Labor DepartmentBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    World Braces for Bigger Trade Wars if Trump Wins

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    Business owners and foreign governments are preparing for high tariffs and trade disruptions, depending on the outcome of the election.When you’re in the whiskey business, you’re always making predictions about the future.From the time grain grown around the Midwest enters Sonat Birnecker Hart’s distillery on the North Side of Chicago, it will be four to 10 years before the whiskey is shipped to buyers. So running her business requires careful projections about demand.Those calculations have become harder of late. With the U.S. presidential election looming, many businesses around the world are facing uncertainty about the future of American trade policy and the tariffs that products will face in global markets.For the whiskey industry, the stakes are particularly high. In March, a 50 percent tariff on American whiskey exports to Europe will snap into effect unless the European Union and the United States can come to an agreement to stop the levies.The outcome may depend on who is in office. Both former President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have embraced tariffs, but their plans differ significantly. Ms. Harris’s campaign has said she would use tariffs in a “targeted” fashion — possibly mirroring the approach of President Biden, who recently imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, silicon chips and solar panels. Like Mr. Biden, she has emphasized working closely with allies.Mr. Trump, in contrast, has said his approach to trade would be even more aggressive than the trade wars of his first term, when he imposed stiff tariffs on allies and rivals to obtain concessions and try to bolster American manufacturing. He has proposed a 60 percent tariff on products from China and a tariff of more than 10 percent on other goods from around the world.A 50 percent tariff on American whiskey exports to Europe will take effect in March unless the United States and European Union reach an agreement.Taylor Glascock for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Port Strike Begins on East and Gulf Coasts

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    Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association walked out for the first time since 1977 in a standoff over wages, benefits and job security.For the first time in nearly 50 years, longshoremen on the East and Gulf Coasts went on strike Tuesday, a move that will cut off most trade through some of the busiest U.S. ports and could send a chill through the economy.Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association union, which represents roughly 45,000 workers, started setting up pickets after 11th-hour talks failed to avert a work stoppage.“Nothing’s going to move without us — nothing,” said Harold J. Daggett, the president of the union, addressing picketers outside a port terminal in Elizabeth, N.J., in a video posted early Tuesday to a union Facebook account.The United States Maritime Alliance, which represents port employers, declined to comment early Tuesday. The two sides were not able to agree on wage increases, and the use of new technology in the ports was a sticking point for the union.“We think they’re lowballing intentionally,” Leonard Riley, a longshoreman at the Port of Charleston in South Carolina, said on Tuesday. “We are going to be out until we have something to chew on.”Businesses now face a period of uncertainty. Trade experts say that a short strike would cause little lasting damage but that a weekslong stoppage could lead to shortages, higher prices and even layoffs.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How the Port Strike Could Affect the Economy and Certain Products

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    Transportation and warehousing sectors are poised to first feel the pinch, with a broader economic fallout expected if the strike drags on.As dockworkers at East and Gulf Coast ports walk off the job, economists are bracing for the strike to reverberate across the American economy.The strike, a result of a monthslong impasse between the union representing roughly 45,000 longshoremen and port operators, began at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday. It will halt almost all activity at some of the busiest ports in the United States, from Maine to Texas. The International Longshoremen’s Association is pushing for wage increases that exceed those offered by the United States Maritime Alliance, the port operators group.The president of the International Longshoremen’s Association said the workers were “making history” by walking off the job for the first time in nearly 50 years.Bryan Anselm for The New York TimesPresident Biden said on Sunday that he was not planning to invoke the Taft-Hartley Act, a nearly 80-year-old law, to force dockworkers back to work if they strike.A strike could cost the economy $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion, or a 0.1 percent hit to U.S. annualized gross domestic product, every week as truckers and other workers dependent on the ports are furloughed and manufacturers experience delivery delays, according to analysts at Oxford Economics. While those losses would be reversed once the strike was over, it would take a month to clear the backlog for each week of the strike, the analysts estimated.Here’s what else to know about the potential economic fallout of the strike.A strike could cost the economy $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion for every week of the work stoppage.Erin Schaff/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Port Strike on the East and Gulf Coasts: What to Know

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    Thousands of dockworkers who load and unload cargo ships could walk off the job on Tuesday, halting nearly all activity at ports from Maine to Texas.Thousands of unionized dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts could go on strike as early as Tuesday, stranding cargo and sending ripples through supply chains for consumer goods and manufacturing parts.A contract between the operators of port terminals and the International Longshoremen’s Association, covering workers who load and unload cargo ships at three dozen ports, is set to expire on Monday. Their facilities include massive container ports in New Jersey, Virginia, Georgia and Texas, as well as the Port of Baltimore, a major hub for the import and export of vehicles and heavy machinery.The port operators group, the United States Maritime Alliance, and the union remain at an impasse over wage increases. Federal officials have said President Biden is not planning to invoke a nearly 80-year-old law to force dockworkers back to work if they strike. It would be the first such walkout at all these ports since 1977.Which ports and goods would be affected?Workers at ports from Maine to Texas would walk off the job at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday. These ports handle about half of all goods shipped to the United States in containers. One of them, the Port of New York and New Jersey, is the third busiest in the country.Longshoremen play a crucial role in the movement of cargo. They are responsible for loading and unloading ships, and they secure vessels that arrive and depart from U.S. ports. For the most part, ocean transport to and from these ports can’t happen without them.Cargo that could be affected by the strike includes everyday consumer goods, like bananas, many of which come through a port in Delaware. Just over half of imported apparel, footwear and accessories also come through East Coast ports. Manufacturing parts and cars move through these ports, too.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    As Strike Looms, Port Operators Ask Regulator to Force Dockworkers to Negotiate

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    The group that represents port terminal operators said the International Longshoremen’s Association was refusing to negotiate a new contract before a Monday deadline.Days ahead of a possible strike by longshoremen on the East and Gulf Coasts, port employers said on Thursday that they were asking a federal labor regulator to force the dockworkers’ union to resume negotiating a new contract.The United States Maritime Alliance, which is made up of port terminal operators, said it had filed an “unfair labor practice” complaint at the National Labor Relations Board after, it said, the International Longshoremen’s Association repeatedly refused to negotiate. The alliance said it wanted the labor board to rule that the union must negotiate with the employers.In a statement on Thursday, Jim McNamara, an I.L.A. spokesman, called the charge a “publicity stunt” that illustrated that the port employers were “poor negotiating partners.”Last week, the union said the two sides had “communicated multiple times in recent weeks,” and it contended that a stalemate existed because the Maritime Alliance was offering “an unacceptable wage increase.”A strike could begin on Tuesday, after the current labor contract expires on Monday. The I.L.A. broke off talks in June, contending that it had discovered that an employer was using labor-saving technology at the port in Mobile, Ala., that it claimed was unauthorized under the current contract.A strike would close down nearly all activity at ports from Maine to Texas — including at the Port of New York and New Jersey, the third busiest in the country. Analysts say even a short walkout could deal a blow to the economy. Fearing a strike, importers have been bringing in goods before next week and diverting some shipments to West Coast ports.Officials in the Biden administration have said President Biden is not planning to force dockworkers back to work, which the 1947 Taft-Hartley Act authorizes him to do. But economists said Mr. Biden might well end up invoking the act if a strike dragged on.Under the expiring contract, longshoremen earn $39 an hour. A person familiar with the negotiations said the union was asking for a $5-an-hour raise in each year of the new contract, which would last for six years. The person said employers were offering annual raises of $2.50 an hour.The Maritime Alliance said Monday that it had been contacted by the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, a government agency that helps management and unions negotiate labor contracts.Federal labor law says it is unlawful for a labor organization to refuse to negotiate on behalf of its members. More

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    Trump’s Low-Tax, High-Tariff Strategy Could Clash With Economic Realities

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    The former president’s efforts to compel companies to remain in the United States had limited success while he was in the White House.As former President Donald J. Trump makes his closing economic argument ahead of the election, he is outlining a vision for a manufacturing renaissance that reprises a familiar pitch: Make goods in America and enjoy low taxes, or face punishing tariffs.Mr. Trump’s pitch combines the type of carrots-and-sharp-sticks approach that he called “America First” during his first term, when he imposed stiff tariffs on allies and competitors while lowering taxes on American firms.During a speech in Savannah, Ga., on Tuesday, Mr. Trump suggested he would go far beyond that initial approach and adopt what he rebranded a “new American industrialism.”The former president proposed creating “special” economic zones on federal land, areas that he said would enjoy low taxes and relaxed regulations. He called for companies that produce their products in the United States — regardless of where their headquarters are — to pay a corporate tax rate of 15 percent, down from the current rate of 21 percent. Businesses that try to route cars and other products into the United States from countries like Mexico would face tariffs as high as 200 percent.But Mr. Trump’s vision of a “manufacturing renaissance” comes when Americans are increasingly wary of foreign investment, particularly from Asia. And while he imposed steep tariffs during his presidency, his efforts to keep American companies from shifting production overseas ran into the harsh realities of lower-wage labor and technological advancements in other countries.While Mr. Trump was in office, manufacturing employment was essentially flat before the pandemic and had declined by the time he left office. In January 2021, the Alliance for American Manufacturing described his promises of an industrial resurgence as “mostly rhetoric.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    An East Coast Port Strike Could Shake the Economy

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    Businesses are preparing for a strike by dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts, which could begin Oct. 1 if negotiations don’t yield a new contract.With dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts threatening to strike on Oct. 1, businesses have been accelerating imports, redirecting cargo and pleading with the Biden administration to prevent a walkout.Some importers started ordering Christmas goods four months earlier than usual to get them through the ports before a labor contract between the operators of port terminals and the International Longshoremen’s Association expires next Monday.Many shipments have been diverted to West Coast ports, where dockworkers belong to a different union that agreed a new contract last year. The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles say they are handling at least as many containers as they did during the pandemic shipping boom of 2021-22.Despite those measures — and all the problem-solving skills that supply chain managers developed during the turbulence of recent years — a short strike could lead to significant disruptions. JPMorgan transportation analysts estimate that a strike could cost the economy $5 billion a day, or about 6 percent of gross domestic product, expressed daily. For each day the ports are shut down, the analysts said, it would take roughly six days to clear the backlog.Chris Butler, the chief executive of the National Tree Company, which sells artificial Christmas trees and other decorations, said his company had brought in goods early and made greater use of West Coast ports. But he estimated that 15 percent of his goods would still be stranded by a port strike.“I’m very unhappy,” said Mr. Butler, who is based in northern New Jersey. “We’re doing everything we can to mitigate it. But there’s only so much you can do when you’re at the mercy of these ports.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More