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A Rural Michigan Town Is the Latest Battleground in the U.S.-China Fight

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Firestorms over Chinese investments, like a battery factory in Green Charter Township, are erupting as officials weigh the risks of taking money from an adversary.Yard signs along the quiet country roads of Green Charter Township, Mich., home to horse farms and a 19th-century fish hatchery, blare a message that an angered community hopes is heard by local leaders, the Biden administration and China: “No Gotion.”The opposition is to a plan by Gotion, a subsidiary of a Chinese company, to build a $2.4 billion electric vehicle battery factory on roughly 270 acres of largely uninhabited scrub land. An investment of that magnitude can transform a local economy, but in this case it is unwelcome by many. Residents fear that the company’s presence is a dangerous infiltration by the Chinese Communist Party and it has led to backlash, death threats and an attempt to unseat the elected officials who backed the project.The debate over the factory has turned a township of about 3,000 people located 60 miles north of Grand Rapids against each other and into an unlikely battleground in the economic contest between the United States and China. The resistance is part of a broader movement by states to erect new barriers to Chinese investment amid concerns about national security and growing anti-China sentiment.“It’s the Communist influences that I’m bothered by, because they have shown repeatedly that they don’t care about our rules, our laws or anything,” said Lori Brock, who lives on a 150-acre horse farm near where the battery factory is being built. “They shouldn’t be able to buy here.”Gotion purchased 270 acres of land in Green Charter Township with plans to build an electric vehicle battery plant.Cydni Elledge for The New York TimesThat sentiment has been reverberating in the United States and on the Republican presidential campaign trail this year. In August, the campaign of Nikki Haley called Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, a “comrade” for backing the Gotion factory. On Wednesday, Vivek Ramaswamy, a Republican candidate who has called for banning Chinese investments, will hold a rally at Ms. Brock’s farm.Gotion has insisted that it has no ideological ties to China. John Whetstone, a company spokesman, said Gotion was “in no way affiliated with any political party,” explaining that it had pledged to the township not to partake in any activity that supports or encourages any political philosophy.Animosity toward China has been deterring Chinese investment in the United States in recent years. Annual investment by Chinese companies has fallen to $5 billion in 2022 from $46 billion in 2016, according to a recent report by Rhodium Group, as relations between the world’s two largest economies soured. Employment at Chinese firms in the United States has declined by nearly 40 percent since 2017, to 140,000 workers.But investment is starting to turn around as a result of new federal incentives — included in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act — that were meant to spur American production of electric vehicles. Foreign companies, including those from China, are trying to capitalize on tax credits for businesses that manufacture renewable energy products inside the United States.The Coalition for a Prosperous America, which represents American manufacturers, estimates that Chinese companies could gain access to $125 billion in U.S. tax credits related to “green energy manufacturing” investments.“There are really strong commercial logics driving this, and those commercial logics aren’t going away anytime soon,” said Kyle Jaros, a professor at the University of Notre Dame, who studies Chinese investment in the United States.The possibility that American taxpayers could subsidize Chinese firms has stoked anger in local communities and in Congress, where lawmakers are scrutinizing transactions involving companies with ties to China and urging the Biden administration to block them.Experts predict that Chinese companies will continue to pursue investments in the United States but concerns at the local level and in Washington are mounting.Cydni Elledge for The New York TimesSenator Marco Rubio of Florida, a Republican, has introduced legislation that would block subsidies to Chinese battery companies. A House committee has demanded answers about a licensing agreement between Ford and the Chinese battery company Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited. Ford has defended the project and described it as an effort to strengthen domestic battery production.House Republicans have also urged Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen to withhold any federal subsidies for the Gotion facility and questioned why the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States did not block its investment.Gotion has said that it voluntarily submitted documents to the interagency panel, known as CFIUS, and the committee declined to block the transaction.The Inflation Reduction Act does restrict American consumers from getting tax credits if they buy electric cars that have parts that come from “foreign entities of concern,” such as China. However, the law does not allow the Treasury to block Chinese companies from securing tax credits if they build factories in the United States.“We know that the vast majority of investments made through the Inflation Reduction Act are being made by American companies,” said Wally Adeyemo, the deputy Treasury Secretary.The Treasury estimates that only 2 percent of the electric vehicle and battery investments that have been made during the Biden administration involve Chinese companies.Gotion already has operations in California and Ohio and plans to open a $2 billion lithium battery manufacturing plant in Illinois. The company chose Michigan last year after securing nearly $800 million in grants and tax exemptions from the state’s strategic fund, whose officials said the investment would bring jobs, customers and economic vitality to the region. At the time, Ms. Whitmer hailed the factory as a win for the state.Since then, a growing and vocal contingent has been working to halt the project.Much of that effort has been directed at Green Charter Township’s board of trustees, a group of local Republican officials who voted to allow Gotion to secure the state tax breaks. When residents realized that the company that was coming to town had ties to China, township meetings that usually drew a handful of people attracted hundreds of angry critics.Green Charter Township’s supervisor, Jim Chapman, sees the advantages of having a Gotion electric vehicle battery plant in the region.Cydni Elledge for The New York TimesJim Chapman, the township supervisor, has heard residents suggest that they would call in the Michigan militia or exercise their Second Amendment rights to stop Gotion from building the factory. Mr. Chapman, a lifelong Republican and former police officer, has found himself in the position of trying to convince his neighbors that allowing Gotion to bring more than 2,000 new jobs to the area will create a housing boom and bring other new businesses to the area.Yet residents have confronted Mr. Chapman with a host of conspiracy theories including that the plant is a “Trojan Horse” and that it will be used to spy on Americans. Some in town believe that the plant will employ cheap Chinese labor, instead of local workers, and erect cooling towers to conceal ballistic missiles.“No Gotion” groups active on Facebook and other social media platforms have seized on the company’s bylaws, which say the company operates in accordance with the Constitution of the Communist Party of China.Kelly Cushway, an organizer in the Gotion resistance movement, opposes the facility and is running for trustee of Green Charter Township.Cydni Elledge for The New York Times“I will go to my grave and people will curse me for this project,” Mr. Chapman said during an interview in his office inside the Green Charter Township building.After researching the company and the actions of other Chinese businesses that operate in the United States, Mr. Chapman concluded that Gotion was not a threat and that the opportunity to invigorate a relatively poor part of the state was worthwhile.“What are they going to spy on us for in Big Rapids? Are they going to steal Carlleen Rose’s fudge recipe?” Mr. Chapman asked, referring to the owner of a popular confectionery in Big Rapids.Opponents hope that a November recall election can replace the board and stop Gotion in its tracks. Residents are raising money to file lawsuits and petition against every permit that Gotion will need to construct a factory that is expected to span more than a million square feet.“I’m worried about environmental catastrophes — there’s going to be 200 to 300 truckloads of chemicals coming in every day,” said Kelly Cushway, who opposes Gotion and is running for a seat on the Green Charter Township board. “We know China has not worried too much about their environment.”Some community activists such as Ms. Brock are coordinating with counterparts in other states including North Dakota, where Fufeng USA tried and failed to construct a corn mill, to learn how to terminate a Chinese investment.Ms. Brock said she remained hopeful that the Gotion factory in her town could be halted.“We haven’t even started,” Ms. Brock said. “We haven’t even hit them with one lawsuit yet, and it’s coming.” More

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    House Committee Targets U.C. Berkeley Program for China Ties

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    A House select committee is requesting more information about a university collaboration that it said could help China gain access to cutting-edge research.A congressional committee focused on national security threats from China said it had “grave concerns” about a research partnership between the University of California, Berkeley, and several Chinese entities, claiming that the collaboration’s advanced research could help the Chinese government gain an economic, technological or military advantage.In a letter sent last week to Berkeley’s president and chancellor, the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party requested extensive information about the Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute, a collaboration set up in 2014 with China’s prestigious Tsinghua University and the Chinese city of Shenzhen.The letter pointed to the institute’s research into certain “dual-use technologies” that are employed by both civilian and military institutions, like advanced semiconductors and imaging technology used for mapping terrain or driving autonomous cars.The committee also questioned whether Berkeley had properly disclosed Chinese funding for the institute, and cited its collaborations with Chinese universities and companies that have been the subjects of sanctions by the United States in recent years, like the National University of Defense Technology, the telecom firm Huawei and the Chinese drone maker DJI.It also said that Berkeley faculty serving at the institute had received funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and other U.S. funding for the development of military applications, raising concerns about Chinese access to those experts.In April, for example, a team from a Shenzhen-based lab that describes itself as being supported by the Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute said it had won a contest in China to optimize a type of advanced chip technology that the U.S. government is now trying to prevent Chinese companies from acquiring, the letter said.It is not clear what role the university had in that project, or if the partnership, or the institute’s other activities, would violate U.S. restrictions on China’s access to technology. In October, the United States set significant limits on the type of advanced semiconductor technology that could be shared with Chinese entities, saying that the activity posed a national security threat.“Berkeley’s P.R.C.-backed collaboration with Tsinghua University raises many red flags,” the letter said, referring to the People’s Republic of China. It was signed by Representative Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican who chairs the committee, and Representative Virginia Foxx, a Republican of North Carolina who is the committee chair on education and the work force.In a statement to The New York Times, U.C. Berkeley said it takes concerns about national security “very seriously” and was committed to comprehensive compliance with laws governing international academic engagement. “The campus is reviewing past agreements and actions involving or connected to Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute” and would “fully and transparently cooperate with any federal inquiries,” it said.The university also said it had responded to inquiries from the Department of Education with detailed information about gifts and contracts related to the institute, that it was committed to full compliance with laws governing such arrangements, and that it “follows the lead of Congress and federal regulators when evaluating proposed research relationships with foreign entities.”Universities have also emphasized that foreign governments might have little to gain from infiltrating such partnerships, since academic researchers are focused on fundamental research that, while potentially valuable, is promptly published in academic journals for all to see.“As a matter of principle, Berkeley conducts research that is openly published for the entire global scientific community,” the university said in its statement.The letter, and other accusations from members of Congress about U.S. universities with partners in China, underscores how a rapid evolution in U.S.-China relations is putting new pressure on academic partnerships that were set up to share information and break down barriers between the countries.The Chinese government has sought to improve the country’s technological capacity through legitimate commercial partnerships, but also espionage, cybertheft and coercion. Those efforts — along with a program to meld military and civilian innovation — has led to a backlash in the United States against ties with Chinese academic institutions and private companies that might have seemed relatively innocuous a decade ago.The select committee, which was set up earlier this year, describes its mission as building consensus on the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party and developing a plan to defend the United States. The bipartisan committee, which is led by Republicans, can provide legislative recommendations but cannot legislate on its own. It has been busily naming and shaming major companies and others over ties to China in congressional hearings, investigations and letters.Tensions between the United States and China are high, and some lawmakers have called for decoupling the two economies. But severing academic ties is a tricky prospect. American universities are geared toward open and collaborative research and count many Chinese scholars among their work force. China’s significant technology industry and huge population of science and technology doctorates make it a natural magnet for many research collaborations.Still, the rapid expansion of export controls in the United States is putting more restrictions on the type of information and data related to advanced technologies that can be legally shared with individuals and organizations in China. Under the new rules, even carrying a laptop to China with certain chip designs on it, or giving a Chinese national a tour of an advanced U.S. chip lab, can violate the law.The House committee has requested that the university provide extensive documents and information by July 27 about the partnership, including its funding, structure and technological work, its alumni’s current and past affiliations, and its compliance with U.S. export controls. More

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    Congress Spotlights Forced Labor Concerns With Chinese Shopping Sites Shein and Temu

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    A congressional investigation into Temu and Shein offered new insight into services that are delivering a deluge of cheap and little-regulated products.Lawmakers are flagging what they say are likely significant violations of U.S. law by Temu, a popular Chinese shopping platform, accusing it of providing an unchecked channel that allows goods made with forced labor to flow into the United States.In a report released Thursday, the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said Temu, a rapidly growing site that sells electronics, makeup, toys and clothing, had failed “to maintain even the facade of a meaningful compliance program” for its supply chains and was likely shipping products made with forced labor into the United States on a “regular basis.”The report stems from a continuing investigation into forced labor in supply chains that touch on China. Lawmakers said the report was based on responses submitted to the committee by Temu, as well as the fast fashion retailer Shein, Nike and Adidas.The report offered a particularly scathing assessment of Temu, saying there is an “extremely high risk that Temu’s supply chains are contaminated with forced labor.” The site advertises itself under the tagline “Shop like a billionaire” and is now the second most downloaded app in the Apple store.The report also criticized Shein’s use of an importing method that allows companies to bring products into the United States duty-free and with less scrutiny from customs, as long as packages are sent directly to consumers and valued at under $800. Some lawmakers have been pushing to close off this shipping channel, which is called de minimis, for companies sourcing goods from China.Lawmakers said that they were troubled by what the bipartisan committee’s investigation had uncovered so far, and that Congress should review import loopholes and strengthen forced labor laws.“Temu is doing next to nothing to keep its supply chains free from slave labor,” said Representative Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican who heads the committee. “At the same time, Temu and Shein are building empires around the de minimis loophole in our import rules: dodging import taxes and evading scrutiny on the millions of goods they sell to Americans.”“The initial findings of this report are concerning and reinforce the need for full transparency by companies potentially profiting from C.C.P. forced labor,” said Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, an Illinois Democrat and a co-author of the report, referring to the Chinese Communist Party.Temu, which began operating in the United States in September, told the committee that it now brought millions of shipments into the United States annually through a network of more than 80,000 suppliers that sell directly from Chinese factories to U.S. consumers. The site sells clothing, temporary tattoos, modeling clay, electronics and other items directly to consumers for low prices, like $3 for a baby romper, $6 for sandals and $8 for a vacuum.The report also contained new data showing that Temu and Shein make heavy use of the de minimis rule, together accounting for almost 600,000 such packages shipped to the United States daily.The shipping method allows retailers to sell their goods to consumers at cheaper prices, since they are not subject to duties, taxes or government fees that apply to traditional retailers that typically ship overseas goods in bulk.A Shein pop-up store last year at the Shops at Willow Bend in Plano, Texas.Cooper Neill for The New York TimesDe minimis shipping also requires far less information to be disclosed about the products and the companies involved in the transaction, making it harder for U.S. customs officials to detect packages with narcotics, counterfeits and goods made with forced labor. The number of de minimis packages entering the United States more than tripled between 2016 and 2021, when it reached 720 million.At an annualized rate, the shipments reported by Shein and Temu would represent more than 30 percent of the de minimis shipments that came into the United States last year, and nearly half of those packages from China, the report said.Both Shein and Temu have steadily taken market share from U.S. brick-and-mortar retailers and won over younger consumers by investing in sophisticated e-commerce technology and offering hundreds more new products than competitors. Among teenagers, Shein was the third most popular e-commerce site behind Amazon and Nike, according to a Piper Sandler report this spring.As their popularity has grown, so has congressional scrutiny of the firms, given their ties to China. Shein was originally based in China but has moved its headquarters to Singapore. Temu, which is based in Boston, is a subsidiary of PDD Holdings, which moved its headquarters to Ireland from China this year.Lawmakers have been questioning their relationship with the Chinese government, as well as the companies’ ability to vet their supply chains to ensure they don’t contain materials or products from Xinjiang. Last year, the U.S. imposed a ban on products from Xinjiang, citing the region’s use of forced labor in factories and mines.The Chinese government has carried out a crackdown in Xinjiang on Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities, including the organized use of forced labor to pick cotton; work in mines; and manufacture electronics, polysilicon and car parts. Because of this, the U.S. government now presumes all materials from the region to be made with forced labor unless proved otherwise.A young Uyghur women working in a garment factory in Xinjiang in 2019.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesShein said in a statement that it had zero tolerance for forced labor and had a robust compliance system, including a code of conduct, independent audits, robust tracing technology and third-party testing. It provided detailed information to the House committee and will continue to answer its questions, the company said.“We have no contract manufacturers in the Xinjiang region,” it said. “As a global company, our policy is to comply with the customs and import laws of the countries in which we operate.” Temu did not respond to a request for comment.Laboratory tests commissioned by Bloomberg News in November found that some Shein clothing had been made with cotton from Xinjiang. Shein didn’t dispute those findings, but said in a statement to Bloomberg that it took steps in all global markets to comply with local laws and had engaged another lab, Oritain, to test its materials.The congressional report also criticized Temu’s failure to set up a compliance or auditing system that could independently verify that its sellers were not sourcing products from Xinjiang.Temu told the committee that it had a reporting system that consumers and sellers could use to file complaints, and that it asked its sellers to sign a code of conduct specifying a “zero-tolerance policy” for the use of forced, indentured or penal labor. Temu’s code of conduct also says the company reserves the right to inspect factories and warehouses to ensure compliance.But the code does not mention Xinjiang or the U.S. ban, and Temu told the House committee that it did not prohibit vendors from selling products made in Xinjiang, the report said.Temu also argued that its use of direct shipping meant that the U.S. consumer, not Temu, would bear the ultimate responsibility for adhering to the ban on Xinjiang goods.“Temu is not the importer of record with respect to goods shipped to the United States,” the report quoted it as saying.Customs lawyers said that it was not entirely clear which party would be liable for complying with the U.S. ban, but that any company facilitating the importation of goods from Xinjiang could face civil or criminal penalties.The committee report also pictured a key chain that was listed on Temu’s website this month and labeled “pendant with Xinjiang cotton.” The key chain itself is shaped like a bud of cotton, and the report said that the Xinjiang label “may refer to the materials, the supplier, the pattern or the origin of the product.”Temu’s “policy to not prohibit the sale of products that explicitly advertise their Xinjiang origins, even in the face of mounting congressional and public scrutiny on related topics, raises serious questions,” the report said.The New York Times was not able to verify whether the product is made using Xinjiang cotton, which is barred under U.S. law. The Times found an identical product listed for sale on a Chinese wholesale site that was described as manufactured in Henan Province, outside Xinjiang.A Times review of information shared by Temu vendors on Chinese social media sites also suggested that Temu did not require sellers to provide detailed information about where their products were made or which companies manufactured them.Vendors sharing tips online about Temu’s product review process gave several reasons that Temu commonly rejected new listings: for example, if the price was too high, if the samples were inconsistent with the photos or if the goods lacked consumer warning labels. But none mentioned concerns about links to Xinjiang or the U.S. import ban.Jordyn Holman More

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    China’s Economic Rebound Hits a Wall, With ‘No Quick Fix’ to Revive It

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    Policymakers and investors expected China’s economy to rev up again after Beijing abruptly dropped Covid precautions, but recent data shows alarming signs of a slowdown.When China suddenly dismantled its lockdowns and other Covid precautions last December, officials in Beijing and many investors expected the economy to spring back to life.It has not worked out that way.Investment in China has stagnated this spring after a flurry of activity in late winter. Exports are shrinking. Fewer and fewer new housing projects are being started. Prices are falling. More than one in five young people is unemployed.China has tried many fixes over the last few years when its economy had flagged, like heavy borrowing to pay for roads and rail lines. And it spent huge sums on testing and quarantines during the pandemic. Extra stimulus spending now with borrowed money would spur a burst of activity but pose a difficult choice for policymakers already worried about the accumulated debt.“Authorities risk being behind the curve in stimulating the economy, but there’s no quick fix,” said Louise Loo, an economist specializing in China in the Singapore office of Oxford Economics.China needs to right its economy after closing itself off to the world for almost three years to battle Covid, a decision that prompted many companies to begin shifting their supply chains elsewhere. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, met on Monday with the secretary of state of the United States, Antony J. Blinken, in an attempt by the two nations to lower diplomatic tensions and clear the way for high-level economic talks in the weeks ahead. Such discussions could slow the recent proliferation of sanctions and counter measures.China’s halting economic recovery has seen only a few categories of spending grow robustly, like travel and restaurant meals. And those have increased in comparison with extremely low levels in spring 2022, when a two-month lockdown in Shanghai disrupted economic activity across large areas of central China.Fewer and fewer new housing projects are being started in China.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesThe economy has been particularly weak in recent weeks.“From April to May to now, the economy has experienced significant unexpected changes, to the point where some people believe that the initial judgments may have been overly optimistic,” Yin Yanlin, a former deputy director of the Chinese Communist Party’s top economic policymaking commission, said in a speech at an academic conference on Saturday.Chinese government officials have been dropping hints that an economic stimulus plan may be imminent.“In response to the changes in the economic situation, more forceful measures must be taken to enhance the momentum of development, optimize the economic structure, and promote the continuous recovery of the economy,” the country’s State Council, or cabinet, said after a meeting on Friday led by Li Qiang, the country’s new premier.China’s economic weakness holds benefits and dangers for the global economy. Consumer and producer prices have fallen for the past four months in China, putting a brake on inflation in the West by pushing down the cost of imports from China.Travel is one of only a few categories of spending that are growing this year.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesBut weak demand in China may exacerbate a global slowdown. Europe already dipped into a mild recession early this year. Rapid interest rate increases in the United States have prompted some investors to bet on a recession late this year there as well.Beijing has already taken some steps to revitalize economic growth. Tax breaks are being introduced for small businesses. Interest rates on bank deposits have been reduced to encourage households to spend more of their money instead of saving it. The latest government measure is expected on Tuesday, when the state-controlled banking system is likely to reduce slightly its benchmark interest rates for corporate loans and home mortgages.But many economists, inside and outside China, worry about the effectiveness of the new measures. Consumers are hoarding cash and investors are wary of putting money into China’s companies. Private investment has actually declined so far this year compared with 2022. Housing remains in crisis, with developers borrowing more to pay existing debts and to complete existing projects, even as China already suffers from an oversupply of homes.Consumers have remained wary in part because the housing market, a source of wealth, is in a precarious state.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesChina’s housing market stands at the heart of its troubles. Construction has accounted for as much as a quarter of China’s economic output. But would-be homeowners have been put off as developers have defaulted on their debts and failed to finish apartments buyers had paid for in advance.Housing construction has fallen nearly 23 percent in the first five months of the year, compared with the same months last year. That suggests the real estate sector has further to fall in the coming months.Chen Leiqian, a 27-year-old marketer in Beijing, started looking for an apartment with her boyfriend in 2021 after five years of dating. But they then decided to stay put in a rental apartment when they married.“Housing prices across the country are falling, and the economy is very bad — there are just too many unstable elements,” Ms. Chen said.Two-thirds of Ms. Chen’s co-workers in her department at an online tutoring company were laid off after China cracked down on the for-profit, private education industry in 2021. She also had a friend who could no longer pay a mortgage after losing a job in the tech sector, and lost the home in foreclosure.The caution of middle-class families like Ms. Chen’s may pose the biggest dilemma for policymakers as they search for an effective formula for another round of economic stimulus.“You can throw money on people but if they are not confident, they will not spend,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, the chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, a French bank.As households struggle to pay their debts and refrain from big-ticket purchases, spending on restaurant meals is growing.Qilai Shen for The New York TimesHouseholds are not alone in struggling to pay their debts — so are local governments, which has limited their ability to step up infrastructure spending.The government is wary of starting another credit binge of the sort seen in 2009, during the global financial collapse, and in 2016, after China’s stock market plunged the preceding year.Although the sagging real estate sector has hurt demand inside China, exports have been flat this year and actually declined in May. The weakness of China’s normally powerful exports is particularly noteworthy because Beijing has allowed its currency, the renminbi, to lose about 7 percent of its value against the dollar since mid-January. A weaker renminbi makes Chinese exports more competitive in foreign markets.More exports help create jobs and could compensate for the otherwise slack domestic economy. But it’s not clear how much China will be able to count on exports to help as some of China’s biggest trading partners have moved some purchases to other countries in Asia.In the United States, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on a wide range of Chinese industrial goods, making it more expensive for American companies to buy from China. Then President Biden persuaded Congress last year to authorize broad subsidies for American production in categories like electric cars and solar panels. China’s exports to the United States were down 18.2 percent last month compared with May last year.The United States has enacted subsidies for American production of electric cars, trying to counter China’s exports. Qilai Shen for The New York TimesNow as China considers how to reinforce the economy, it must contend with a loss of confidence among consumers.Charles Wang runs a small travel company with eight employees in Zhangjiakou, in northern China. His business has almost fully rebounded after the pandemic but he has no plans to invest in expansion.“Our economy is actually going down, and everyone doesn’t have so much time and willingness to spend,” Mr. Wang said. “It’s because people just don’t want to spend money — everyone is afraid again, even the rich.”Li You More

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    Pressure Mounts on China to Offer Debt Relief to Poor Countries Facing Default

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    There was optimism at the spring meetings of the I.M.F. and World Bank that China will make concessions over restructuring its loans.WASHINGTON — China, under growing pressure from top international policymakers, appeared to indicate this week that it is ready to make concessions that would unlock a global effort to restructure hundreds of billions of dollars of debt owed by poor countries.China has lent more than $500 billion to developing countries through its lending program, making it one of the world’s largest creditors. Many of those countries, including several in Africa, have struggled economically in the wake of the pandemic and face the possibility of defaulting on their debt payments. Their problems have been compounded by rising interest rates and disruptions to supplies of food and energy as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine.The United States, along with other Western nations, has been pressing China to allow some of those countries to restructure their debt and reduce the amount that they owe. But for more than two years, China has insisted that other creditors and multilateral lenders absorb financial losses as part of any restructuring, bogging down a critical loan relief process and threatening to push millions of people in developing countries deeper into poverty.A breakthrough would offer an economic lifeline to vulnerable nations at a time of sluggish growth and uncertain financial stability, and it would signal a renewed interest from China in economic diplomacy.Economists and development experts are watching carefully to determine if China is serious about easing the loan forgiveness logjam and if its talk will be followed by action. By some calculations, the world’s poor countries owe around $200 billion to wealthy nations, multilateral development banks and private creditors. Leaders of the world’s advanced economies have been grappling in recent months with how to avert financial crises in teetering markets such as Zambia, Sri Lanka and Ghana.Africa’s private and public external debt has increased more than fivefold over the last two decades to about $700 billion and Chinese lenders account for 12 percent of that total, according to Chatham House, the London policy institute. Researchers for the Debt Relief for Green and Inclusive Recovery Project estimated in a recent report that 61 emerging market and developing economies were facing debt distress, and that more than $800 billion in debt must be restructured.Leaders of the world’s advanced economies have been grappling in recent months with how to avert financial crises in teetering markets such as Sri Lanka.Dinuka Liyanawatte/Reuters“China is facing increasing pressure from every quarter, including from other emerging market economies, to play a more constructive role in the negotiations over debt restructuring,” said Eswar Prasad, a former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division, who said China’s intransigence had left it “increasingly isolated.”There were indications this week that China was prepared to end that isolation as top economic officials from around the world convened at the spring meetings of the I.M.F. and World Bank. Participants expressed optimism that representatives from Beijing appeared to be ready to back off its insistence that multilateral lenders such as the World Bank, which provides low-interest loans and grants to poor countries, accept losses in the debt restructuring.“My sense from the current context is we’re moving on to new steps,” David Malpass, the departing World Bank president, said at a news conference on Thursday, pointing to “progress on equal burden sharing.”Kristalina Georgieva, the I.M.F.’s managing director, said she was “very encouraged” that a “common understanding” had been reached that could accelerate relief for countries such as Zambia, Ghana, Ethiopia and Sri Lanka.“I always say the proof of the pudding is in the eating,” Ms. Georgieva said.To restructure a country’s debt, creditors generally must agree to a combination of lowering the interest rate on the loan, extending the duration of the loan or writing off some of what is owed. China, which has faced an array of domestic economic challenges over the last three years, has been reluctant to take losses on debt and has pushed for other lenders, such as the World Bank, to incur losses.The urgency for a resolution was palpable among countries that are most in need of relief. Zambia defaulted in 2020 and has been trying to restructure $8.4 billion that it owes through a program established by the Group of 20 nations. It owes about $6 billion to Chinese lenders, and its total debt to foreign lenders is approaching $20 billion.On Friday, Ghana’s finance minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, lamented that 33 African nations were saddled with interest payments that approached or exceeded what their governments spent on health and education.Yuri Gripas for The New York Times“Zambia urgently needs debt relief,” Situmbeko Musokotwane, Zambia’s finance minister, told The New York Times. “Delay on debt restructuring puts our currency under pressure, excludes Zambia from capital markets and makes it difficult to attract much-needed foreign direct investment.”Ghana appealed to the Group of 20 nations this year for debt relief through a fledgling program known as the Common Framework after securing preliminary approval for a $3 billion loan from the I.M.F. That money is contingent on Ghana’s receiving assurances that it can restructure the approximately $30 billion that it owes to foreign lenders. Officials from Ghana have been meeting with their Chinese counterparts about restructuring the $2 billion that it owes China.On Friday, Ghana’s finance minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, lamented that 33 African nations were saddled with interest payments that approached or exceeded what their governments spent on health and education and expressed disappointment that advanced economies had been slow to act.“Honestly, it is disheartening to watch Africa struggle in this way, especially considering the potential loss of productivity over the next decade should African economies buckle under the weight of suffocating debts,” Mr. Ofori-Atta said at an Atlantic Council event on Friday.But it remains uncertain how far China is willing to go.Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that it was not clear what financial terms Beijing would accept when restructuring debt but that it appeared to be taking a “positive step” that would remove “a financially unwarranted roadblock to any progress.”Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at a farm in Zambia in January. She said this week that she would continue to press her Chinese counterparts to make the restructuring process work better.Fatima Hussein/Associated PressBut given the grinding pace of the talks, big investors in emerging markets are not counting on quick resolutions.“We are starting to see tokens of flexibility from China on their stance in sovereign debt restructuring, but complexities abound,” said Yacov Arnopolin, emerging markets portfolio manager at PIMCO. “Near term, we don’t expect a clear-cut solution on China’s willingness to take losses.”China’s reluctance has been another source of tension with the United States, which has expressed concern that Beijing’s onerous lending terms and refusal to renegotiate have amplified the financial problems that developing countries are facing. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said this week that she would continue to press her Chinese counterparts to improve the restructuring process but that she was encouraged that China had recently expressed a willingness to help Sri Lanka restructure its debt.People familiar with Chinese economic policymaking said domestic politics had made it hard for China to make difficult decisions last autumn and over the winter about accepting possible losses on its loans.In October, the Communist Party held its once-in-five-years national congress and chose a new team of senior party officials to work with Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader. Maneuvering then began to reshuffle the government’s senior ranks, which had been expected during the annual session of the National People’s Congress in early March, although some changes of financial policymakers were unexpectedly delayed.China is now ready to focus on addressing a wide range of economic issues, including international debt, the people said. However, Beijing still faces other challenges that may limit its willingness to bargain, including a commercial banking system that faces very heavy losses on loans to real estate developers and does not want to accept large losses on loans to developing countries at the same time.Chinese officials offered support for the debt relief initiatives in broad terms this week.Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on Friday that China had put forward a three-point proposal that included calling for the I.M.F. to more quickly share its debt sustainability assessments for countries that need relief, and for creditors to detail how they will carry out the restructurings on “comparable terms.”After a meeting in Washington between Yi Gang, China’s central bank governor, and Mr. Musokotwane of Zambia, the Chinese central bank released a brief statement.“They exchanged views on issues of common concern including bilateral financial cooperation,” it said.Keith Bradsher More

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    China’s GDP Data Delay Points to Murky Economic Picture

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    The delay in announcing routine growth data this week was only the latest example of how hard it has become to peer into China’s economy, the world’s second largest.For the past quarter-century, China was run by a well-oiled government bureaucracy that predictably focused on the economy as its top priority.That may no longer be the case.Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, made clear on Sunday at the opening of the Communist Party’s national congress, a twice-a-decade gathering of the country’s ruling elite, that politics and national security were paramount. That point was reinforced the next day when Beijing made the unusual move of delaying what should have been a routine, closely stage-managed release of data on how the economy fared in the past three months.“It does show the primacy of politics in influencing the very competent, institutional technocracy that China has,” said Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese elite politics and finance at the University of California, San Diego.“The very likely reason the numbers were delayed was the State Council leaders were afraid the numbers would detract from the triumphant tone of the party congress,” he added. The State Council is China’s cabinet.It is extremely rare for any large economy to delay the release of such an important economic report. The data included not just China’s economic growth from July through September but also the country’s factory production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property prices for September.Mr. Xi, who is expected to claim a third term in power, has sought to project confidence in China’s outlook. On Monday, a Chinese economic planning official reiterated the Communist Party’s talking points about how well China’s economy was faring, saying it improved in the last quarter.Xi Jinping, China’s leader, speaking during the opening ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in Beijing.Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesBut that optimistic message was quickly undercut by news of the delayed release of gross domestic product data, and how the delay was handled. Reporters who called government employees on Friday and Monday about the release were told they had no information.Contacted again late Monday afternoon, the workers said only that the release had been postponed indefinitely. The National Bureau of Statistics still has not explained the delay or announced a rescheduled date. On Friday, the government also failed to release data on exports and imports for September, and has not said when it would do so.China’s refusal to provide statistics, combined with the haphazard way the postponements were communicated, suggested either that part of the bureaucracy was in disarray or that China’s economy was in worse shape than most people had realized. It also raised questions about the reliability of the data.“It’s a horrible blunder,” said Taisu Zhang, a Yale University law professor who specializes in comparative legal and economic history. “I don’t know if they are massaging the numbers — even if they need to massage the figures, the better thing to do would be to massage them within the usual time frame.”Beijing set a target in March that growth would be “about 5.5 percent” this year. Yet Western economists have estimated that China’s economy grew only a little more than 3 percent in the third quarter.That still would have been better than growth of 0.4 percent logged in the second quarter, when Shanghai was locked down for two months to stamp out a Covid-19 outbreak.Mr. Xi has put a premium on social stability and national security, often with actions that have had a side effect of slowing economic growth and employment. Regulators have clamped down on the tech sector, contributing to widespread layoffs among young employees. Dozens of the country’s private property developers have defaulted on debts this year after Beijing discouraged real estate speculation. Tycoons have been fleeing the country. Municipal lockdowns to stop outbreaks of Covid-19 have taken a heavy toll.A commercial and office complex in Beijing. China’s refusal to provide data on its economy suggests that it could be in worse shape than most people had realized.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesQuestions have long been raised about whether China’s economic growth statistics may be inflated somewhat or smoothed from one year to the next. But until recently China had also released more granular data that made it possible to draw conclusions about the economy’s overall health.One such measure is the rising value of new office complexes, rail lines and other investment projects. But last year, China stopped releasing data on inflation in construction costs.That has made it hard to calculate the true value of the new investments, said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, a London consulting firm. So while the total money invested is still available, it is no longer clear what that money is buying.Underlying data had been available for China’s international trade, its main engine of growth. But growing inconsistencies started to become apparent over the summer.China’s General Administration of Customs reported sharp increases through August in exports to the United States and Europe. But the number of containers leaving Chinese ports for these destinations was flat.Average prices charged by factories in China to wholesalers have been little changed. Few economists think that China is earning more money from exports through inflation. The plateau in containers even as export statistics are rising is consistent with previous periods of economic weakness in China, as exporters exaggerate the value of their shipments to customs officials as part of complex strategies to move money out of China.There are other signs that actual exports of goods are now in trouble. Taiwan has very similar trade patterns to mainland China, and on Oct. 7, Taiwan reported a sharp, unexpected drop in its imports and exports during September.The cost of shipping each container from China to the United States or Europe has also fallen steeply over the past year. It dropped much further in September. The cost of loading a container onto a ship in eastern China for delivery to Los Angeles has plunged by more than half this year, according to Container xChange, an online container logistics platform. This suggests few factories are bidding for space aboard ships.Cargo ships loading containers at the port on the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal. The cost of shipping from China to the United States or Europe has fallen steeply over the past year. Alex Plavevski/EPA, via Shutterstock“The retailers and the bigger buyers or shippers are more cautious about the outlook on demand and are ordering less,” said Christian Roeloffs, the chief executive and co-founder of Container xChange.Another problem is that even when China releases data, it sometimes provides less explanation now of how the data is calculated. Derek Scissors, a senior fellow specializing in China and India at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said he used to be able to get answers from Chinese officials on how certain investment statistics were calculated. But in the past couple of years, they are no longer willing to discuss their data.Monday’s postponement of the release of economic data had little discernible effect on Chinese financial markets on Tuesday. Share prices rose sharply in Hong Kong as a change in British tax policy preceded a global rally in stock markets. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, more insulated from international events and also heavily managed by the Chinese authorities, were little changed.But delays can have a corrosive effect on China’s image in financial markets.“If delays start to become a regular occurrence,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, the senior China economist at Capital Economics, “then that could reduce confidence in the official economic data and the professionalism of China’s bureaucracy.” More

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    China Offers Women Perks for Having Babies, if They’re Married

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    Beijing is giving incentives to stem a demographic crisis, but its control over childbirth and its suppression of women’s rights are making it difficult for some aspiring parents to start a family.When Chan Zhang heard about the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, she was baffled that Americans were still arguing over abortion rights.“Here, overall, the society does not encourage abortion,” said Ms. Zhang, a 37-year-old junior faculty member at a prestigious university on China’s east coast, “but I feel like women have the right in terms of whether they want to get an abortion.”Abortion, like almost all reproductive issues in China, is heavily centered on Chinese Communist Party authority. The party for decades forced abortions and sterilizations on women as part of its one-child policy. Now, faced with a demographic crisis, it wants women to have more than one baby — and preferably three.But Beijing is still dictating who can have babies, discriminating against single women like Ms. Zhang and minorities through draconian family planning policies. The question now, many women say, is why they would choose to have any babies at all.With China’s birthrate at a historical low, officials have been doling out tax and housing credits, educational benefits and even cash incentives to encourage women to have more children. Yet the perks are available only to married couples, a prerequisite that is increasingly unappealing to independent women who, in some cases, would prefer to parent alone.Babies born to single parents in China have long struggled to receive social benefits like medical insurance and education. Women who are single and pregnant are regularly denied access to public health care and insurance that covers maternity leave. They are not legally protected if employers fire them for being pregnant.The sweeteners offered to new mothers by the government are not doing much to reverse the demographic crisis, especially in the face of China’s steadily declining marriage rate.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesSome single women, including Ms. Zhang, are simply choosing not to have a child, quietly pushing back against Beijing’s control over women’s bodies. Those who find ways to get around the rules often face consequences from the state.“Many people think that being a single mom is a process of confrontation with public opinion, but it’s not,” said Sarah Gao, 46, a single parent who lives in Beijing and is outspoken about reproductive rights. “It’s actually this system.”Chinese law requires a pregnant woman and her husband to register their marriage to get prenatal care at a public hospital. When Ms. Gao found out that she was pregnant, she had to tell doctors at one hospital that her husband was overseas to be admitted.Her daughter was born in November 2016. Eight months later, Ms. Gao was fired from her job, prompting her to file a lawsuit accusing the company of workplace discrimination. The company won because Ms. Gao does not qualify for legal benefits and protections as an unmarried mother.The court said her unmarried birth “did not conform to China’s national policy.” She is appealing for a third time.China’s national family planning policy does not explicitly state that an unmarried woman cannot have children, but it defines a mother as a married woman and favors married mothers. Villages offer cash bonuses to families with new babies. Dozens of cities have expanded maternity leave and added an extra month for second- and third-time married mothers. One province in northwestern China is even considering a full year of leave. Some have created “parenting breaks” for married couples with young children.China’s national family planning policy is meant to favor married mothers. Some single women are choosing to remain childless, quietly pushing back against Beijing’s control over reproductive rights.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesBut the sweeteners are not doing much to reverse the demographic crisis, especially in the face of China’s steadily declining marriage rate, which reached a 36-year low last year. Women who came of age during the greatest period of economic growth in China’s modern history increasingly worry that their hard-earned independence will be taken away if they settle down.A politician at China’s most recent annual meeting of its rubber-stamp legislature suggested that the party be more tolerant toward single women who wanted children, giving them the same rights as married couples. Yet even as a shrinking population threatens Beijing’s long-term economic ambitions, the Chinese authorities have often failed to introduce lasting policy changes.The authorities moved last year to scrap the use of “social support” fees — a sort of penalty — that single mothers pay to get benefits for their children. But some areas have been slow to adopt the new rules, and the regulations can vary because enforcement is left to the discretion of local governments. Recent changes to Chinese law make it illegal to discriminate against the children of single parents, but some women still have to navigate an unsympathetic bureaucracy.Last year, landlocked Hunan Province said it would consider providing fertility services for single women, but it has not made much progress. When Shanghai decided to drop its policy of giving maternity benefits only to married women, it reversed the decision just a few weeks later, underlining just how hard it is for the authorities to loosen their grip on family planning.Chinese law requires a pregnant woman and her husband to register their marriage to get prenatal care at a public hospital. To be admitted at a hospital, one single mother had to tell doctors that her husband was overseas.Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times“At the societal level, it is a threat to the legally recognized marriage institution and social stability,” said Zheng Mu, an assistant professor of sociology at the National University of Singapore who studies fertility in China.Ten years ago, Kelly Xie, 36, got married because she wanted to have a child. “I had got to that age at the time, then I was picking and choosing and it seemed that he was the most suitable one,” she said. Four years later, she gave birth to a daughter, but she was unhappy in her marriage.The Latest on China: Key Things to KnowCard 1 of 6Pressure on Taiwan. More

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    China Outlines Plan to Stabilize Economy in Crucial Year for Xi

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    China calls for heavy government spending and lending, as its leaders seek to project confidence in the face of global uncertainty over the pandemic and war in Ukraine.BEIJING — Plowing past global anxieties over the war engulfing Ukraine, China set its economy on a course of steady expansion for 2022, prioritizing growth, job creation and increased social welfare in a year when the national leader, Xi Jinping, is poised to claim a new term in power.The annual government work report delivered to China’s National People’s Congress by Premier Li Keqiang on Saturday did not even mention Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it took an implacably steady-as-it-goes tone on China’s economic outlook.The implicit message appeared to be that China could weather the turbulence in Europe, and would focus on trying to keep the Chinese population at home contented and employed before an all-important Communist Party meeting in the fall, when Mr. Xi is increasingly certain to extend his time in power.“In our work this year, we must make economic stability our top priority and pursue progress while ensuring stability,” Mr. Li said.By announcing a target for China’s economy to expand “around 5.5 percent” this year, Mr. Li reinforced the government’s emphasis on shoring up growth in the face of global uncertainty from the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine. That goal is slower than the 8.1 percent rebound in the economy that China reported last year, but higher than many economists believe the country can achieve without big government spending programs.Mr. Li disappointed anyone who might have thought he would have anything to say about Ukraine. The Chinese government’s annual work reports generally avoid new announcements on foreign policy, and this year’s was no exception. Beijing has sought to maintain its partnership with Russia while trying to distance China from President Vladimir V. Putin’s decision to go to war.“China will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy of peace, stay on the path of peaceful development, work for a new type of international relations,” Mr. Li said in his report — the closest he came to a comment on international developments.Still, leaders in Beijing also signaled — in numbers, rather than words — that they were preparing for an increasingly dangerous world. China’s military budget will grow by 7.1 percent this year to about $229 billion, according to the government’s budget report, also released Saturday. Mr. Li indicated that there would be no slowing in China’s efforts to modernize and overhaul its military, which includes expanding the navy and developing an array of advanced missiles.Chinese military planes at an aviation expo in Zhuhai, China, last year.Ng Han Guan/Associated Press“While economic development provides a foundation for a possible defense budget increase, the security threats China is facing and the demands for national defense capability enhancement caused by those threats are the driving factors,” Global Times, a Communist Party-run newspaper, wrote in a report this week that predicted China’s rise in military spending. “Over the past year, the U.S. also rallied its allies and partners around the world to provoke and confront China militarily.”In December, the United States Congress approved a budget of $768 billion for the American military. But salaries and equipment manufacturing costs are far higher in the United States, which has prompted some analysts to suggest that China’s military budget is rapidly catching up in actual purchasing power.The plan Mr. Li outlined suggests that China values economic growth more than trying to make potentially painful adjustments to shift the economy toward greater reliance on domestic consumer spending. Beijing has been trying, with limited success, to move the economy away from dependence on debt-fueled infrastructure and housing construction.China had managed to reduce slightly last year its debt relative to economic output. It needed to do so because this ratio had climbed, during the first year of the pandemic, to a level that economists regarded as unsustainable.But meeting this year’s growth target would require more borrowing, undoing most or all of the progress made last year in reducing the debt burden, said Michael Pettis, an economist with Peking University. He said that it was hard to see how China could break its dependence on achieving high growth targets at least partly through heavy borrowing.Mr. Li acknowledged that the Chinese economy would face challenges this year, pointing to the sluggish recovery of consumption and investment, flagging growth in exports and a shortage of resources and raw materials. By the last three months of last year, the economy was growing only 4 percent.Part of that economic slowdown reflected a series of government policy shifts aimed at reining in unsustainable expansion in some sectors. Housing speculation was discouraged. Stringent limits were imposed on the after-school tutoring industry. And national security agencies imposed tighter scrutiny on the tech sector.China’s huge construction industry is stalling as home buyers turn wary, with developers beginning to default on debts. Dwindling revenues from land sales have made some local governments more cautious about building additional roads and bridges. Continued lockdowns and travel restrictions to prevent the coronavirus from spreading have caused a downturn in spending at hotels and restaurants.A shopping district in Shanghai in January.Aly Song/ReutersMr. Li gave few clues to whether China might shift away from its stringent “zero Covid” pandemic strategy, which has relied on mass testing and occasional lockdowns. He urged officials to handle local outbreaks in a “scientific and targeted manner.”The Latest on China: Key Things to KnowCard 1 of 3National People’s Congress. More

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    China’s Legislative Session to Focus on Economy

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    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to go almost unmentioned at an annual gathering of China’s legislature, as leaders focus on stabilizing economic growth.BEIJING — When China’s legislature opens its weeklong annual session on Saturday, Chinese leaders will be eager to use the event to bolster confidence in the country’s economy.Beijing will use the National People’s Congress to pledge that China’s economy, the engine of global growth, will regain momentum despite a punishing slump in housing, rising commodity prices, scattered lockdowns to control coronavirus outbreaks and widespread uncertainty over the war in Ukraine.Beijing’s ability to maintain political and economic stability is paramount as the ruling Communist Party prepares the ground for Xi Jinping, China’s leader, to secure another term in power at a party congress late this year. Mr. Xi has used a nationalistic vision of rejuvenation to justify his strongman rule and the party’s expanding grip into everyday life, but the challenges his country faces are grave.The Chinese economy is slowing. Continued lockdowns and other stringent pandemic-control measures have hurt consumption. The average age of the population is rising fast, threatening to result in labor shortages. Officials are grappling with an unusually sustained wave of public anger about human trafficking and the shoddy protection of women.Stabilizing China’s weak economy will be the central focusOn Saturday, Premier Li Keqiang will announce the government’s target for economic growth this year. Economists expect the target to be at least 5 percent and possibly higher. That would signify continued gradual deceleration of the Chinese economy, although still faster growth than in most other countries.Economies have rebounded strongly over the past year in the West, helped by heavy consumer spending as the pandemic ebbs at least temporarily. But China is on the opposite track. China’s economy expanded 8.1 percent last year, but slowed markedly in the final months of last year, to 4 percent, as government measures to limit real estate speculation hurt other sectors as well.Residential housing construction last year in Guangdong, China.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesConsumers, sometimes kept home by lockdowns and domestic travel restrictions, are pulling back. A high level of household indebtedness, mainly for mortgages, has also dampened spending. Even exports appear to be growing a little less rapidly after spectacular growth through most of the pandemic.To offset weak consumption, Premier Li is expected to announce another round of heavy, debt-fueled spending on infrastructure and on assistance to very poor households, particularly in rural areas.Zhu Guangyao, a former vice minister of finance who is now a cabinet adviser, said at a news conference in late January that he expected the target to be about 5.5 percent. But Jude Blanchette, a China specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that global supply chain difficulties and the economic and financial fallout from the war in Ukraine might prompt China to set a lower target.At the congress, Mr. Blanchette predicted, “the biggest concern and the central focus is going to be the economy.”How long will China seek to keep Covid out?China has kept the coronavirus almost completely under control within its borders after the initial outbreak in Wuhan two years ago, but at considerable cost: intermittent lockdowns, particularly in border cities, as well as lengthy quarantines for international travelers and sometimes domestic ones as well. Hints could emerge of how China intends to follow the rest of the world in opening up, although possibly not until next year.Experts say China is unlikely to throw open its borders before the Communist Party congress late this year. When China does start opening up, it will want to avoid the kind of uncontrolled outbreak that has overwhelmed nursing homes and hospitals in Hong Kong, largely taking a toll on the city’s oldest residents, many of whom are unvaccinated.But in interviews with state media, posts on social media and in public remarks in the past week, China’s top medical experts have begun dropping clues that the country is looking for a less stringent approach that protects lives without being overly disruptive to the economy.Coronavirus testing outside a shopping mall in Beijing last month.Andy Wong/Associated PressThe challenge for Beijing is increasing the rate of vaccination among the country’s older population. In December, a senior health official said that the country’s overall vaccination rate was high, but only half of citizens over 70 were vaccinated.China’s Covid strategy relies heavily on mass surveillance of the population’s movements, with mobile phone location tracking as well as swift containment of buildings and neighborhoods when cases emerge, to impose mass testing and quarantines. But in a sign of Beijing’s concern about the economic toll of such measures, the National Development and Reform Commission ordered local governments last month not to impose unauthorized lockdowns. The top economic planner said that governments “must not go beyond the corresponding regulations of epidemic prevention and control to lock down cities and districts, and must not interrupt public transportation if it’s unnecessary or without approval.”The Latest on China: Key Things to KnowCard 1 of 3National People’s Congress. More