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    The Debt-Ceiling Deal Suggests Debt Will Keep Growing, Fast

    The bipartisan deal to avert a government default this week featured modest cuts to a relatively small corner of the federal budget. As a curb on the growth of the nation’s $31.4 trillion debt load, it was a minor breakthrough, at best.It also showed how difficult — perhaps impossible — it could be for lawmakers to agree anytime soon on a major breakthrough to demonstrably reduce the nation’s debt load.There is no clear economic evidence that current debt levels are dragging on economic growth. Some economists contend that rising debt levels will hurt growth by making it harder for businesses to borrow money; others say spiraling future costs of government borrowing could unleash rapid inflation.But Washington is back to pretending to care about debt, which is poised to top $50 trillion by the end of the decade even after accounting for newly passed spending cuts.With that pretense comes the reality that the fundamental drivers of American politics all point toward the United States borrowing more, not less.The bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt ceiling for two years, which passed the Senate on Thursday, effectively sets overall discretionary spending levels over that period. The agreement cuts federal spending by $1.5 trillion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, by essentially freezing some funding that had been projected to increase next year and then limiting spending to 1 percent growth in 2025.But even with those savings, the agreement provides clear evidence that the nation’s overall debt load will not be shrinking anytime soon.Republicans cited that mounting debt burden as a reason to refuse to raise the limit, risking default and financial crisis, unless Mr. Biden agreed to measures to reduce future deficits. But negotiators from the White House and House Republican leadership could only agree to find major savings from nondefense discretionary spending.That’s the part of the budget that funds Pell grants, federal law enforcement and a wide range of domestic programs. As a share of the economy, it is well within historical levels, and it is projected to fall in the coming years. Currently, base discretionary spending accounts for less than one-eighth of the $6.3 trillion the government spends annually.The deal included no major cuts to military spending, which is larger than base nondefense discretionary spending. Early in the talks, both parties ruled out changes to the two largest drivers of federal spending growth over the next decade: Social Security and Medicare. The cost of those programs is expected to soar within 10 years as retiring baby boomers qualify for benefits.While Republicans at first balked when Mr. Biden accused them of wanting to cut those politically popular programs, they quickly switched to blaming the president for taking them off the table.Asked on Fox News on Wednesday why Republicans had not targeted the entire budget for cuts, Speaker Kevin McCarthy replied, “Because the president walled off all the others.”“The majority driver of the budget is mandatory spending,” he said. “It’s Medicare, Social Security, interest on the debt.”Negotiators for Mr. McCarthy effectively walled off the other half of the debt equation: revenue. They rebuffed Mr. Biden’s pitch to raise trillions of dollars from new taxes on corporations and high earners, and both sides wound up agreeing to cut funding for the Internal Revenue Service that was expected to bring in more money by cracking down on tax cheats.Instead, Republicans attempted to frame mounting national debt as solely a spending problem, not a tax-revenue problem, even though tax cuts by both parties have added trillions to the debt since the turn of the century.Republican leaders now appear poised to introduce a new round of tax-cut proposals, which would likely be financed with borrowed money, a move Democrats decried during the floor debate over the debt-ceiling deal.“Before the ink is dry on this bill, you will be pushing for $3.5 trillion in business tax cuts,” Representative Gwen Moore, Democrat of Wisconsin, said shortly before the final vote on the Fiscal Responsibility Act, as it is called, on Wednesday.Those comments reflected a lesson Democrats took from 2011, when Washington leaders last made a big show of pretending to care about debt in a bipartisan deal to raise the borrowing limit. That agreement, between President Barack Obama and Speaker John Boehner, limited discretionary spending growth for a decade, helping to drive down budget deficits for years.Many Democrats now believe those lower deficits gave Republicans the fiscal and political space they needed to pass a tax-cut package in 2017 under President Donald J. Trump that the Congressional Budget Office estimated would add nearly $2 trillion to the national debt. They have come to believe that Republicans would happily do the same again with any future budget deals — putting aside deficit concerns and effectively turning budget savings into new tax breaks.At the same time, both parties have grown more wary of cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Mr. Obama was willing to reduce future growth of retirement benefits by changing how they were tied to inflation; Mr. Biden is not. Mr. Trump won the White House after promising to protect both programs, in a break from past Republicans, and is currently slamming his rivals over possible cuts to the programs as he seeks the presidency again.All the while, the total amount of federal debt has more than doubled, to $31.4 trillion from just below $15 trillion in 2011. That growth has had no discernible effect on the performance of the economy. But it is projected to continue growing in the next decade, as retiring baby boomers draw more government benefits. The budget office estimated last month that debt held by the public would be nearly 20 percent larger in 2033, as a share of the economy, than it is today.Even under a generous score of the new agreement, which assumes Congress will effectively lock in two years of spending cuts over the full course of a decade, that growth will only fall by a few percentage points.Groups promoting debt reduction in Washington have celebrated the deal as a first step toward a larger compromise to reduce America’s reliance on borrowed money. But neither Mr. McCarthy nor Mr. Biden has shown any interest in what those groups want: a mix of significant cuts to retirement programs and increases in tax revenues.Mr. McCarthy suggested this week that he would soon form a bipartisan commission to scour the full federal budget “so we can find the waste and we can make the real decisions to really take care of this debt.”The 2011 debt deal produced a similar sort of commission, which issued recommendations on politically painful steps to reduce debt. Lawmakers discarded them. There’s no evidence they’d do anything else today. More

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    House Set to Vote on Debt Ceiling Bill Amid Republican Resistance

    A bipartisan coalition was set to push through the compromise struck by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden, even as lawmakers in both parties signaled their displeasure with the plan.The House on Wednesday was poised to push through legislation negotiated by President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy to suspend the debt ceiling and set federal spending limits, as a bipartisan coalition lined up to cast a critical vote to pull the nation back from the brink of economic catastrophe.The bill would defer the federal debt limit for two years — allowing the government to borrow unlimited sums as necessary to pay its obligations — while imposing two years of spending caps and a string of policy changes that Republicans demanded in exchange for allowing the country to avoid a disastrous default. The vote, expected Wednesday night, was coming days before the nation was projected to exhaust its borrowing power, and after a marathon set of talks between White House negotiators and top House Republicans.With both far-right and hard-left lawmakers in revolt over the deal, congressional leaders cobbled together a coalition of Republicans and Democrats willing to drag the bill over the finish line, throwing their support behind the compromise in an effort to break the fiscal stalemate that has gripped Washington for weeks.It nearly collapsed on its way to the House floor, when hard-right Republicans sought to block its consideration, and in a suspenseful scene, Democrats waited several minutes before swooping in to supply their votes for a procedural measure that allowed the plan to move ahead.Representative Dan Bishop of North Carolina, along with other hard-right House Freedom Caucus members, tried to block the procedure to advance the debt deal to a vote on Wednesday.Haiyun Jiang for The New York TimesThe deal would suspend the $31.4 trillion borrowing limit until January 2025. It would cut federal spending by $1.5 trillion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, by effectively freezing some funding that had been projected to increase next year and then limiting spending to 1 percent growth in 2025, which is considered a cut because it would be at a lower level than inflation. The legislation would also impose stricter work requirements for food stamps, claw back some funding for I.R.S. enforcement and unspent coronavirus relief money, speed the permitting of new energy projects and officially end Mr. Biden’s student loan repayment freeze.The compromise was structured with the aim of enticing votes from both parties, allowing Republicans to say that they succeeded in reducing some federal spending — even as funding for the military and veterans’ programs would continue to grow — while allowing Democrats to say they spared most domestic programs from significant cuts.Ahead of the series of votes on Wednesday, Mr. McCarthy urged his members to support the bill, framing it as a “small step putting us on the right track,” and promoting the spending cuts and work requirements Republicans won in the deal.“Everybody has a right to their own opinion,” he said. “But on history, I’d want to be here with this bill today.”In the Senate, both Democratic and Republican leaders said they would quickly take up the legislation and push to get the package to Mr. Biden as swiftly as possible, with Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, warning that lawmakers would need to approve the bill without changes to meet the June 5 deadline when the Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has said the government would default without action by Congress.“I cannot stress enough that we have no margin for error,” Mr. Schumer said. “Either we proceed quickly and send this bipartisan agreement to the president’s desk or the federal government will default for the first time ever.”Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, warned that lawmakers would need to approve the bill without changes to meet a June 5 deadline to avert a default.Haiyun Jiang for The New York TimesPassage of the deal would be a major victory for Mr. McCarthy, a California Republican who faced a massive challenge in shepherding a debt-ceiling increase through a narrowly divided chamber populated by Republicans who have long refused to raise the borrowing limit. Few had expected that Mr. McCarthy would be able to unite his fractious conference around any such measure, much less one negotiated with Mr. Biden, without prompting an attempt by his right flank to oust him.As of Wednesday, no such effort had materialized, thought there still may be political consequences ahead for Mr. McCarthy. Representative Dan Bishop, Republican of North Carolina and a member of the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus, has publicly said that he considered the debt and spending deal grounds for removing Mr. McCarthy from his post. Another member of the group, Representative Ken Buck, Republican of Colorado, told CNN that its members would have “discussions about whether” to try to oust him.“I’m not suggesting the votes are there to remove the speaker, but the speaker promised that we would operate at 2022 appropriations levels when he got the support to be speaker,” Mr. Buck said. “He’s now changed that to 2023 levels plus one percent. That’s a major change for a lot of people.”Under the rules House Republicans adopted at the beginning of the year that helped Mr. McCarthy become speaker, any single lawmaker could call for a snap vote to depose him, a move that would require a majority of the House.Hard-right lawmakers were nonetheless furious over the compromise, savaging the bill and Mr. McCarthy’s handling of the negotiations as a betrayal.“No one sent us here to borrow an additional $4 trillion to get absolutely nothing in return,” said Representative Chip Roy, Republican of Texas, who promised “a reckoning about what just occurred.”In a dramatic display of their displeasure, 29 conservative Republicans took the unusual step of breaking ranks on a procedural vote to take up the legislation, normally a formality that passes entirely along party lines.In a dramatic tableau on the House floor, as the Republican defections piled up, imperiling the deal, Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the minority leader, finally raised a green voting card in the air, signaling to fellow Democrats that it was time go ahead and bail Republicans out. A stream of centrist and veteran lawmakers — 52 in all — crowded into the well of the House and voted “yes,” rescuing the deal from collapse.After a pause on the floor when Republicans came up short on votes, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the New York Democrat and minority leader, gave the assent to a group of Democrats to help move toward a vote on the deal.Kenny Holston/The New York TimesMr. Jeffries had gathered Democrats in the Capitol on Wednesday morning, along with top White House officials who had helped broker the deal, and urged them to back the compromise. He argued that Mr. Biden had successfully fended off the worst of Republicans’ demands, and reiterated that allowing the nation to default was not an option.“I made clear that I’m going to support legislation that is on the floor today,” Mr. Jeffries told reporters at a news conference after the meeting. “And I support it without hesitation or reservation or trepidation.”But progressive Democratics bristled at the package, and said they could not support new work requirements for safety net programs or incentivize Republicans from weaponizing the debt ceiling as a political cudgel.“Republicans need to own this vote,” said Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democrat of New York, who took particular aim at changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and a measure to expedite production of a gas pipeline. “This was their deal, this was their negotiations. They’re the ones trying to come in and cut SNAP, cut environmental protections, trying to ram through an oil pipeline through a community that does not want it.”“Republicans need to own this vote,” said Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democrat of New York, one of a group of Democrats displeased with Republican provisions in the bill.Kenny Holston/The New York Times“This has been a hostage situation,” Representative Greg Casar, Democrat of Texas, said. “We’re going to get out of the hostage situation. I appreciate the president negotiating down the ransom payment for the hostage. But I think it’s appropriate for progressives to say we never want to be in this situation again.”Adding to progressive discontent are provisions in the deal that claw back some unspent money from a previous pandemic relief bill, and reduce by $10 billion — to $70 billion from $80 billion — new enforcement funding for the I.R.S. to crack down on tax cheats. Other measures in the bill include a provision meant to speed the permitting of certain energy projects and a provision meant to force the president to find budget savings to offset the costs of a unilateral action, like forgiving student loans — though administration officials could circumvent that requirement.The deal also includes measures meant to avert a government shutdown later this year.Carl Hulse More

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    Potential Debt Ceiling Deal Would Barely Change Federal Spending Path

    Negotiators have focused on a relatively small corner of the budget, shunning new revenues or cuts to the fastest-growing programsAs their debt limit negotiations with President Biden push the nation perilously close to a devastating default, House Republicans have stuck to a clear message: They must force a change in what they call the nation’s “unsustainable” spending path.Yet in talks with Mr. Biden, Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his lieutenants have focused almost entirely on cutting a small corner of the budget — known as nondefense discretionary spending — that includes funding for education, environmental protection, national parks, domestic law enforcement and other areas. That budget line accounts for less than 15 percent of the $6.3 trillion the government is expected to spend this year. It is not outsized, by historical standards. It is already projected to shrink, as a share of the economy, over the next decade.And it has nothing to do with the big drivers of projected spending growth in the coming years: the safety-net programs Social Security and Medicare, which are facing increasingly large payouts as the American population ages.Those politically popular programs have been deemed off limits in the current talks by Republicans, who came under heavy criticism from Mr. Biden for even entertaining changes that could raise the retirement age for those programs or make other changes to slow their future spending.Republicans have also refused to entertain cuts to military spending, which is nearly as large as nondefense discretionary spending. As a result, the negotiations are almost certain not to produce any agreement with Mr. Biden that would dramatically alter the course of federal spending in the next decade.Instead, they would concentrate budget cuts on education, environmental protection and a host of other government services that fiscal experts say are nowhere close to being primary sources of spending growth in the years to come.For instance, if Republicans could somehow persuade Mr. Biden to accept the full round of discretionary spending cuts contained in the fiscal bill the House passed last month, it would do little to alter the nation’s overall spending trajectory over the next decade. Those cuts would reduce federal spending by about $470 billion in 2033 and likely save about $100 billion that year in borrowing costs, according to the Congressional Budget Office.Total government spending would then be just under 24 percent of the economy — or nearly exactly what it is today.While those cuts might not make much of a dent in the overall budget, they would still be felt by many Americans. Because the cuts would be so contained to one segment, many popular government programs would shrink by as much as 30 percent under that scenario, White House officials and independent analysts have calculated.“The cuts Republicans propose would have severe impacts on education, public safety, child care, veterans’ health care and more,” the White House budget director, Shalanda Young, wrote in a memo last week.Republicans have for months cited growing federal spending and debt as the reason they have refused to raise the nation’s borrowing limit — risking default — unless Mr. Biden agrees to spending cuts.Representative Garret Graves of Louisiana, one of Mr. McCarthy’s top negotiators, said this week that the biggest gap with Biden administration officials was on spending numbers. “My interpretation of their position is that they fail to recognize or fail to see to the fact that we are on a spending trajectory right now that is absolutely unsustainable,” he said.Federal spending spiked during the Covid-19 pandemic, first under President Donald J. Trump and continuing under Mr. Biden, as lawmakers delivered trillions of dollars in assistance to businesses, people and state and local governments. It remains higher than historical norms, when measured as a share of the economy, which is the easiest way to track spending patterns as prices have increased over time.The Congressional Budget Office estimates that total spending averaged just under 21 percent of gross domestic product from 1980 through 2019, just before the pandemic hit. It surged above 30 percent in 2020 and 2021. This fiscal year, it is expected to be just over 24 percent, falling slightly over the next several years and then beginning to grow again in the waning years of this decade, climbing past 25 percent in 2033.Discretionary spending, though, is expected to decline over the decade as a share of the economy. Military spending — which Republicans have thus far refused to reduce as part of talks with Mr. Biden’s team — should tick down slightly from 3 percent of the economy. Discretionary spending outside the military is now 3.6 percent but is expected to fall to 3.2 percent by 2033.Social Security and Medicare, conversely, are expected to grow rapidly over the next 10 years, as retiring baby boomers qualify to receive health and retirement benefits. Social Security spending will rise from 4.8 percent to 6 percent of the economy in that time, the budget office projects, and Medicare will rise from 3.9 percent to 5.3 percent.Analysts say those programs are the primary reason budget forecasts have long shown federal spending increasing in the coming decades — even before Mr. Biden took office.“The entirety of the overall federal spending increase relative to G.D.P. over the long term can be accounted for by the growth in the major federal health programs (Medicare, Medicaid, and the A.C.A.) and Social Security,” Charles P. Blahous, who studies federal spending and debt at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, told the Senate Budget Committee this month in written testimony.Conservative groups have criticized Republicans for not including the safety-net programs in debt demands. “While current debt ceiling negotiations largely concern ways to restrain the discretionary parts of the budget, any serious proposal to tackle the emerging debt and deficit crisis must also address our largest mandatory spending programs: Social Security and Medicare,” Alex Durante, an economist at the Tax Foundation, which promotes lower taxes, wrote on Wednesday.Liberal groups and the White House have criticized Mr. McCarthy and his team for neglecting the other side of the fiscal ledger: the nation’s tax system. Tax receipts briefly surged last year but are expected to fall back toward historical norms this year, stabilizing around 18 percent of the economy, the budget office projects. Mr. McCarthy has cited last year’s numbers to incorrectly claim current tax revenues are near record highs. More

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    U.S. Faces ‘Significant Risk’ of Running Out of Cash in June, Budget Office Warns

    A default would cause financial distress, economic disruptions and rapid increases in borrowing rates, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said.The Congressional Budget Office said on Friday that there was a “significant risk” that the federal government could run out of cash sometime in the first two weeks of June, setting the United States up for a default.The warning came as the White House and congressional leaders spent the week in negotiations over how to raise the $31.4 trillion borrowing cap. The Treasury Department has been using accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures to keep paying the country’s bills without breaching that debt ceiling, which was officially reached on Jan. 19. But the department has said those tools could be exhausted as soon as June 1.The nonpartisan budget office outlined the fiscal strain facing the government as the legislative standoff continues. It also noted that the timing and revenue coming into the government, as well as its expenditures, were hard to predict.“If the debt limit is not raised or suspended before the Treasury’s cash and extraordinary measures are exhausted, the government will have to delay making payments for some activities, default on its debt obligations, or both,” the Congressional Budget Office said in a report released on Friday.It predicted that a default would lead to “distress in credit markets, disruptions in economic activity and rapid increases in borrowing rates for the Treasury.”Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen warned this week that the consequences of a default would be dire.“A default would threaten the gains that we’ve worked so hard to make over the past few years in our pandemic recovery,” she said at a news conference in Japan on Thursday before a gathering of Group of 7 finance ministers. “And it would spark a global downturn that would set us back much further.”The day the United States runs out of cash — known as the X-date — could come later this summer. The budget office said that if the Treasury Department had sufficient funds to make it through June 15, an influx of quarterly tax receipts and additional extraordinary measures at its disposal would most likely allow the government to keep paying its bills through “at least the end of July.”President Biden and the four top congressional leaders, including Speaker Kevin McCarthy, were originally scheduled to meet again on Friday to discuss the debt limit after an initial face-to-face session on Tuesday produced no agreement. The second meeting is now expected to take place next week, before Mr. Biden departs on Wednesday for Japan to attend the G7 leaders’ meeting. In the interim, staff from both sides are continuing to try to reach some type of deal to avert a default.While the decision to delay the meeting was viewed as a positive development that could allow both sides to reach consensus, it remains unclear whether an agreement can be reached in time. Mr. McCarthy has insisted on deep spending cuts and a rollback of Mr. Biden’s clean energy agenda as a prerequisite to raising the debt limit. The president has insisted that Republicans raise the borrowing cap, arguing that it simply allows the United States to pay bills that Congress has already approved.Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, said on Friday that the meeting was delayed so that the administration and congressional staff could continue their private discussions over a plan to raise the debt limit. While the White House continued to insist that raising it is not negotiable, she said, the president was willing to discuss other spending and budget matters with Republicans.“The meetings have been productive over the last few days,” Ms. Jean-Pierre said, adding that there was “a lot of urgency” to find a solution that prevents a default.The nation’s long-term fiscal outlook continues to be problematic and could only harden the Republican position that the government must rein in spending. In a separate report released on Friday, the Congressional Budget Office said it projected a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion this year — slightly higher than its forecast in February. Annual deficits are projected to nearly double over the next decade, totaling more than $20 trillion through 2033. More

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    In Debt Limit Talks, Biden and Republicans Start Far Apart

    As the president prepares to meet with Speaker Kevin McCarthy this week, his budget shares little common ground with spending and tax proposals from House Republicans.President Biden is set to welcome Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other top congressional leaders to the White House on Tuesday for a pivotal round of discussions about the nation’s taxes, spending and debt as a potentially catastrophic government default rapidly approaches.The talks come just weeks before the United States is expected to run out of cash to pay its bills unless the nation’s borrowing cap is lifted. Like previous moments of brinkmanship, the discussions have echoes of 2011 and 2013, when congressional Republicans refused to raise the debt ceiling unless a Democratic president agreed to curb federal spending and reduce budget deficits. The same dynamic is at play now, but with a crucial difference: The parties share almost no common ground on tax and spending proposals that are meant to reduce the growth of the nation’s $31.4 trillion debt.The meeting is not expected to produce anything close to final agreement on a fiscal plan that could include raising the debt limit. But even small points of consensus could be hard to come by.Mr. Biden wants to expand federal spending and reduce future debt, largely by raising taxes on high earners and large companies. Republicans have passed a bill to cut federal discretionary spending — a category that includes national parks, education and more — and cancel tax breaks for certain low-emission energy sources that were part of Mr. Biden’s signature climate law. Republicans have promised to extend the 2017 tax cuts that were approved by President Donald J. Trump and are set to expire at the end of 2025.While both sides say they want to reduce the nation’s future debt burden, there is almost no overlap in how they aim to achieve that outcome. The only point of agreement so far is on the one thing Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy consider off limits in budget talks: Social Security and Medicare, the primary sources of projected federal spending growth in the decades to come.The gulf on fiscal issues is one of several complicating factors in discussions over the debt limit, which the government technically hit earlier this year. Officials have been employing what are essentially accounting maneuvers to keep paying all the government’s bills on time without going over the current $31.4 trillion limit. But Janet L. Yellen, the Treasury secretary, warned in a letter last week that those efforts will no longer be possible as soon as June 1, risking a debt default that economists warn could spawn a financial crisis and recession.We Hit the Debt Limit. What Happens Now?Lawmakers will need to reach a bipartisan agreement to lift the debt limit. The longer it takes, the more turmoil there could be for the United States and the global economy.Mr. Biden has refused to negotiate directly over the limit, saying Republicans must vote to raise it without conditions, given that it simply allows the government to pay for spending that lawmakers in both parties have already approved. But he invited Mr. McCarthy and other congressional leaders to come to the White House on Tuesday for what he called a separate negotiation on fiscal policy — even though it is effectively linked to the debt limit drama.Republicans say they will not raise the limit without significant curbs in spending. That is the same position they took in 2011 and 2013, under President Barack Obama, when Mr. Biden was vice president. They did not make similar demands to raise the limit when they controlled Congress at the start of Mr. Trump’s term and Republican votes helped to effectively raise the limit.In 2011, Mr. Obama entered debt limit negotiations with a set of proposed spending cuts. They included a five-year freeze on discretionary spending not related to national security, a separate freeze on federal workers’ salaries for two years and the elimination of an air-to-air missile program and a fighting vehicle for the Marine Corps. Republicans countered with a budget that featured deep cuts to federal health care spending, privatizing Medicare for future beneficiaries and new tax cuts.Republicans ultimately agreed to raise the debt limit in exchange for budget changes centered on caps on discretionary spending — essentially modifying and expanding the spending freeze Mr. Obama had proposed in his budget.Unlike Mr. Obama more than a decade ago, Mr. Biden has never agreed with Republicans’ argument that federal spending has grown too large. He has proposed to scale back the growth in government debt, but his aides reject the Republican contention that the current path of the debt poses a significant threat to economic growth.Mr. Biden’s most recent budget included $3 trillion in proposals to reduce future deficits. The savings would come largely from tax increases on the wealthy and big corporations, along with cutting government spending on health care by broadening Medicare’s ability to negotiate prescription drug prices.Republicans have rejected all the tax increases and criticized Mr. Biden earlier this year for not proposing to spend even more on the military than he already did.House Republicans have not put forth or passed a budget. The bill they passed last month would raise the debt limit by $1.5 trillion or through March 2024, whichever came first. It would reduce future deficits by nearly $5 trillion, largely by freezing certain federal spending for a decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.It also included new supports for fossil fuels, a rollback of Mr. Biden’s climate change agenda and an end to the president’s attempt to cancel student loan debt for most borrowers, which appears likely to be struck down by the Supreme Court regardless.Neither side has found anything to like in the other’s starting position. Republicans “didn’t produce a budget,” Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic leader, who will join Mr. McCarthy at the White House meeting, told NBC News on Sunday. “What they did was produce a ransom note.”Representative Jodey C. Arrington of Texas, the chairman of the Budget Committee, countered that Mr. Biden would have to relent and negotiate with Republicans.Mr. Biden “has negotiated, as vice president and as a senator, debt ceiling increases, with common-sense spending controls and fiscal reforms,” Mr. Arrington told Fox News on Sunday. “And we’re just asking him to be a responsible leader and do that again.” More

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    The Debt Ceiling Debate Is About More Than Debt

    Republicans’ opening bid to avert economic catastrophe by raising the nation’s borrowing limit focuses more on energy policy than reducing debt.WASHINGTON — Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California has repeatedly said that he and his fellow House Republicans are refusing to raise the nation’s borrowing limit, and risking economic catastrophe, to force a reckoning on America’s $31 trillion national debt.“Without exaggeration, America’s debt is a ticking time bomb that will detonate unless we take serious, responsible action,” he said this week.But the bill Mr. McCarthy introduced on Wednesday would only modestly change the nation’s debt trajectory. It also carries a second big objective that has little to do with debt: undercutting President Biden’s climate and clean energy agenda and increasing American production of fossil fuels.The legislation, which Republicans plan to vote on next week, is meant to force Mr. Biden to negotiate over raising the debt limit, which is currently capped at $31.4 trillion. Unless the cap is lifted, the federal government — which borrows huge sums of money to pay its bills — is expected to run out of cash as early as June. The House Rules Committee said on Friday that it will meet on Tuesday to consider the bill and possibly advance it to a floor vote.More than half the 320 pages of legislative text are a rehash of an energy bill that Republicans passed this year and that aimed to speed up leasing and permitting for oil and gas drilling. Republicans claim the bill would boost economic growth and bring in more revenue for the federal government, though the Congressional Budget Office projected it would slightly lose revenue.The Republican plan also gives priority to removing clean energy incentives that were included in Mr. Biden’s signature climate, health and tax law. That legislation, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, included tax credits and other provisions meant to encourage electric vehicle sales, advanced battery production, utility upgrades and a variety of energy efficiency efforts.The proposal does include provisions that would meaningfully reduce government spending and deficits, most notably by limiting total growth in certain types of federal spending from 2022 levels.The bill would claw back some unspent Covid relief money and impose new work requirements that could reduce federal spending on Medicaid and food assistance. It would block Mr. Biden’s proposal to forgive hundreds of billions of dollars in student loan debt and a related plan to reduce loan payments for low-income college graduates.As a result, it would reduce deficits by as much as $4.5 trillion over those 10 years, according to calculations by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in Washington. The actual number could be much smaller; lawmakers could vote in the future to ignore spending caps, as they have in the past.Even if the entire estimated savings from the plan came to pass, it would still leave the nation a decade from now with total debt that was larger than the annual output of the economy — a level that Mr. McCarthy and other Republicans have frequently labeled a crisis.The Republican plan is estimated to reduce that ratio — known as debt-to-G.D.P. — in 2033 by about nine percentage points if fully enacted. By contrast, Mr. Biden’s latest budget, which raises trillions of dollars in new taxes from corporations and high earners and includes new spending on child care and education, would reduce the ratio by about six percentage points.Those reductions are a far cry from Republicans’ promises, after they won control of the House in November, to balance the budget in 10 years. That lowering of ambitions is partly the product of Republican leaders’ ruling out any cuts to the fast-rising costs of Social Security or Medicare, bowing to an onslaught of political attacks from Mr. Biden.The lower ambitions are also the result of party leaders’ unwillingness or inability to repeal most of the new spending programs Mr. Biden signed into law over the first two years of his presidency, often with bipartisan support.At the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, Mr. McCarthy accused the president and his party of already adding “$6 trillion to our nation’s debt burden,” ignoring the bipartisan support enjoyed by most of the spending Mr. Biden has signed into law.The speaker’s plan would effectively roll back one big bipartisan spending bill, which Mr. Biden signed at the end of 2022 to fund the government through this year. But the other big drivers of debt approved under Mr. Biden that are not singled out for repeal in the Republican bill include trillions in new spending on semiconductor manufacturing, health care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits, and upgrades to critical infrastructure like bridges, water pipes and broadband.Some of that spending could potentially be reduced by congressional appropriators working under the proposed spending caps, but much of it is exempt from the cap or already out the door. Most of the $1.9 trillion economic aid plan Mr. Biden signed in March 2021, which Republicans blame for fueling high inflation, is already spent as well.The plan squarely targets the climate, health and tax bill that Democrats passed along party lines last summer by cutting that bill’s energy subsidies. It would also rescind additional enforcement dollars that the law sent to the Internal Revenue Service to crack down on wealthy tax cheats. The Congressional Budget Office says that change would cost the government about $100 billion in tax revenue.Taken together, those efforts reduce deficits by a bit over $100 billion, suggesting debt levels are not the primary consideration in targeting those provisions. The bill’s next 200 pages show what actually is: a sustained push to tilt federal support away from low-emission energy and further toward fossil fuels, including mandating new oil and gas leasing on federal lands and reducing barriers to the construction of new pipelines.Republicans say those efforts would save consumers money by reducing gasoline and heating costs. Democrats say they would halt progress on Mr. Biden’s efforts to galvanize domestic manufacturing growth and fight climate change.The plan “would cost Americans trillions in climate harm,” said Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, the Democratic chairman of the Budget Committee. “And it would shrink our economy by disinvesting in the technologies of tomorrow.”Republicans have positioned their fossil fuel efforts as a solution to a supposed production crisis in the United States. “I have spent the last two years working with the other side of the aisle, watching them systematically take this country apart when it comes to our natural resources,” Representative Jerry Carl of Alabama said last month before voting to pass the energy bill now embedded in the debt ceiling bill.Government statistics show a rosier picture for the industry. Oil production in the United States has nearly returned to record highs under Mr. Biden. The Energy Department projects it will smash records next year, led by output increases from Texas and New Mexico. Natural gas production has never been higher.White House officials warn that Republicans are risking a catastrophic default with their demands attached to raising the borrowing cap. “The way to have a real negotiation on the budget is for House Republicans to take threats of default, when it comes to the economy and what it could potentially do to the economy, off the table,” Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, told reporters on Thursday.Mr. McCarthy has defended his entire set of demands as a complete package to reorient economic policy. But he mentioned energy only in passing in his speech to Wall Street.The issue he called a crisis — and the basis he cited for refusing to raise the borrowing limit without conditions — was fiscal policy and debt. Debt limit negotiations, he said, “are an opportunity to examine our nation’s finances.” More

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    House G.O.P. Eyes Rescinding Unspent Covid Money as Part of Its Fiscal Plan

    Estimates put the amount of leftover money between $50 billion and $70 billion. But even if Republicans could claw it back, it would not make much of a dent in the deficit.WASHINGTON — House Republicans demanding spending cuts in exchange for raising the nation’s debt limit have rallied around a seemingly straightforward proposal: recalling billions of dollars in coronavirus relief funds that Congress approved but have not been spent.Top Republicans regard the idea of rescinding unspent pandemic emergency money — an amount estimated to be between $50 billion and $70 billion — as an easy way to save money while avoiding more politically perilous options like cutting funding for popular federal programs. Their focus on the idea reflects how, after toiling unsuccessfully for months to unite their rank and file around a fiscal blueprint, G.O.P. leaders have become acutely aware that they have few options for doing so that could actually pass the House.On Wednesday, Speaker Kevin McCarthy highlighted the measure when he finally unveiled House Republicans’ proposal to raise the debt limit for one year in exchange for a series of spending cuts and policy changes. The party plans to vote on the legislation next week.“The American people are tired of politicians who use Covid as an excuse for more extreme inflationary spending,” Mr. McCarthy said in a speech on the House floor. “If the money was authorized to fight the pandemic, what was not spent during the pandemic should not be spent after the pandemic is over.”But going after the leftover money scattered across the patchwork of government programs used to dole out the relief funding — dozens of different accounts — is easier said than done.And even if House Republicans can find a way to identify and get their hands on the comparatively small sums of leftover money, it would do little to shrink the nation’s $1.4 trillion deficit. Additionally, the federal budget analysts who calculate the deficit have already accounted for the fact that some of the money Congress allocated for pandemic relief programs will likely never be spent.House Republicans have identified the move as just one way to rein in federal spending, which they say must be done in exchange for their votes to raise the debt ceiling, which is expected to be breached as early as June.But the challenges around what has widely been considered one of the simplest options underscore how difficult it will be for the party to meet the lofty goals Republican leaders laid out at the beginning of the year. They have already abandoned their aspiration of balancing the federal budget in 10 years and have been unable to reach consensus on freezing spending levels and other cuts that would shave down the deficit without touching Medicare or Social Security.Jeenah Moon for The New York TimesOver the span of two years and six laws, Congress approved about $4.6 trillion in federal spending to help the nation respond to and recover from the coronavirus pandemic. While most of that money has already been spent, either by federal agencies or state or local governments, tens of billions of dollars have yet to be earmarked for specific use.An internal document circulated by House Republican leaders laying out a draft of their fiscal demands in exchange for raising the debt limit until May 2024 estimated that there is $50 to $70 billion in leftover federal coronavirus relief funds scattered across federal agencies and programs. The Government Accountability Office reported in February that there was about $90 billion remaining.That money is spread across dozens of programs, and many agencies are still doling out money, including the Health and Human Services Department, the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Transportation Department.The bulk of it is intended for grants to health care providers, medical care for veterans, pension benefits and aid for public transit agencies that saw ridership levels plummet during the pandemic. Although Biden administration officials expect much of the remaining funds to be spent eventually, officials believe some programs with leftover money are largely over, including one designed to help aircraft manufacturers pay for compensation costs during the pandemic, which had about $2.3 billion left as of January.The funds could be unspent for various reasons. Transit agencies could already be using some to fund operations, but may not have submitted reimbursement requests to the federal government because they have more than a year left to spend the money. Funds for public health have been set aside for research, vaccine distribution and refilling stockpiles of personal protective equipment. A program that provides assistance to financially troubled pension plans is accepting applications through 2026 because of its extensive review process.Economists and policy researchers said rescinding the unspent funding would help trim the deficit — but only by a relatively small amount.Even if lawmakers were able to rescind, for example, $70 billion in relief funds, it likely would not result in a $70 billion reduction of the deficit, according to economic researchers. That is because researchers at Congress’s nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office who project the deficit have already assumed that not all pandemic relief funds would be spent and factored that into their calculations.Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the president of the conservative American Action Forum and a former C.B.O. director, said it would “make good sense” to rescind unspent relief funds if there were a substantial amount left and they were not needed, but the total savings would be relatively scant. He argued that it would be more effective for lawmakers to instead focus on slowing the growth of benefit programs such as Social Security or Medicare.“If you’re genuinely worried about the fiscal future and the unsustainable nature of the federal budget, good, but this won’t solve any of those problems,” Mr. Holtz-Eakin said. “This is a one-time reduction in spending that looks backward, not forward, and the real issues are in front of us.”Marc Goldwein, the senior vice president at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog group, said the federal government should pursue some of the relief money that is not being used and try to recoup funds by investigating cases of potential fraud, though it would be a “little too late” now.“We shouldn’t have a bunch of money sitting out there that’s not being used if it’s not needed, but we just shouldn’t expect much budget savings from it,” Mr. Goldwein said.The White House has pushed back on the proposal and signaled that it would not support a move to rescind a significant amount of the funds.Gene Sperling, a senior White House adviser, said that about 98 percent of the funding in the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan has already been spent or is “on the train to go out to people and places as it was specifically intended to by the law.”Rescinding the unspent funds, he said, would “lead to significant pain for veterans, retirees [and] small businesses.”“This is a one-time reduction in spending that looks backward, not forward, and the real issues are in front of us,” said Dr. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the president of the conservative American Action Forum and a former C.B.O. director.Stefani Reynolds for The New York TimesCongressional negotiators have previously attempted to offset the costs of other bills by rescinding unspent Covid money provided to state and local governments, including last year, when Democrats tried to cover the cost of a $15 billion pandemic relief bill in part by rescinding funding earmarked for state and local relief funds.But a revolt from Midwestern House Democrats — whose states would have been disproportionately affected by the clawbacks and whose governors yowled at the idea of being stripped of money they had already planned to use — ultimately led party leaders to drop the measure altogether.The episode served as a warning to state and local leaders, and ahead of the debt limit fight, some prominent mayors began publicly warning their peers to spend down the federal funds available to them quickly.Lawmakers last year also sought to offset the costs of the stand-alone pandemic aid bill by raiding the $2.3 billion in unspent money from the Transportation Department’s program to help aircraft manufacturers cover the costs of their employees’ wages during the pandemic. The idea was ultimately scuttled after the revolt around rescinding state and local funds. More

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    Biden Will Release Dead-on-Arrival Budget, Picking Fight With GOP

    The president’s plans have little in common with the budget Republicans are set to release this spring, as the nation hurtles toward a possible default on its debt.WASHINGTON — President Biden will propose a budget on Thursday that has no chance of driving tax or spending decisions in Congress this year, but instead will serve as a statement of political priorities as he clashes with Republicans over the size of the federal government.Mr. Biden’s budget proposal, the third of his presidency, is an attempt to advance a narrative that the president is committed to investing in American manufacturing, fighting corporate profiteering, reducing budget deficits and fending off conservative attacks on safety-net programs.It is expected to include what White House officials say will be nearly $3 trillion in new deficit reduction, largely from a familiar batch of tax increases on companies and high earners, along with robust spending on the military and policies to further Mr. Biden’s attempts to support high-tech factory jobs and fight climate change.Republicans are expected to offer a starkly different budget sometime this spring, one likely to be stocked with cuts to federal health programs and aid to the poor, in an effort to eliminate the budget deficit within a decade without raising taxes. Mr. Biden is certain to reject those proposals, and they may struggle to attract enough moderate Republican votes to pass the House.The competing documents will highlight the dearth of common ground for Mr. Biden and his opposition party on fiscal policy at a high-stakes moment for the government and the global economy. That is true even though both the president and congressional Republicans are embracing the politics of promising to reduce deficits and the growth of the national debt, which topped $31 trillion late last year.Republican leaders in the House have refused to raise a congressionally imposed cap on how much the federal government can borrow unless Mr. Biden agrees to steep cuts to federal spending in exchange. Given the United States borrows huge sums of money to pay its bills, that position risks plunging the economy into crisis if the government runs out of cash and defaults on its debt later this year.Mr. Biden has refused to tie any spending cuts to raising the borrowing cap, which does not authorize any new expenditures, but said he welcomes debate over how best to ease the nation’s debt burden.The parties’ entrenched positions set Washington up for several bruising months, at least, of debt-limit discussions. Economists warn the standoff will rattle investors and poses mounting threats to the global financial system.On Wednesday, Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, urged lawmakers not to play games, saying there is no way to prevent a financial meltdown without raising the borrowing cap.“Congress raising the debt ceiling is really the only alternative,” Mr. Powell told a House committee. “There are no rabbits in hats to be pulled out on this.”Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, told a House committee: “Congress raising the debt ceiling is really the only alternative.”Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesPresidential budgets always offer visions for the nation’s fiscal policy that compete with those of their opposition — and budgets submitted by presidents to an opposition-dominated chamber of Congress rarely serve as more than messaging documents. Often, including under Mr. Biden, much of the budget fails to pass muster with the president’s own party.Mr. Biden failed to persuade a sufficient number of Democrats to pass many of the policy priorities outlined in his previous budget requests, like free community college and federally guaranteed paid leave. More than $2 trillion in tax increases from last year’s budget were never enacted despite Democrats’ control of Congress..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Still, this year’s budget releases from Mr. Biden and House Republicans carry extra importance because of the stakes of the debt-limit fight — and the few paths to compromise on fiscal policy that the documents are expected to show.Mr. Biden’s budget will raise taxes on corporations and high earners, both to pay for his policy priorities and to reduce the growth in America’s reliance on borrowed money, including a 25 percent tax aimed at billionaires. Republicans will seek to cut taxes, including making permanent some temporary tax cuts approved under former President Donald J. Trump, and may seek to eliminate the budget deficit in 10 years by gutting huge swaths of federal spending. Mr. Biden will continue to push his vision of an expanded and empowered government hand in the economy, with new spending for child care, education and more. Republicans will seek to slash federal agencies and much of the health coverage provided by the Affordable Care Act, though it may be difficult for Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California to assemble a package of cuts that will satisfy hard-liners and centrists in his caucus alike.Leaders on both sides of the aisle are embracing the contrasts in their approach.Mr. Biden “is willing to do what Republicans are not: lower the deficit in a realistic, responsible way without cutting benefits that tens of millions of people rely on,” Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, said in a brief speech on Wednesday. “Unlike Republicans, the president is also asking the richest of the rich to pay a little more of their fair share in taxes,” he added.Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, told reporters this week that Mr. Biden’s budget was “replete with what they would do if they could.”“Thank goodness the House is Republican,” Mr. McConnell said. “Massive tax increases, more spending, all of which the American people can thank the Republican House for, will not see the light of day.”Speaker Kevin McCarthy faces a challenge in coming up with cuts that will satisfy both hard-liners and centrists in the Republican caucus.Julia Nikhinson for The New York TimesRepublicans largely ignored the growth in deficits under Mr. Trump, including approving his tax cuts, which cost the federal government $2 trillion, and when joining with Democrats to pass trillions of dollars in economic aid amid the pandemic recession. Republicans joined Democrats three times to raise or suspend the debt limit without any spending cuts when Mr. Trump was in office. But after winning control of the House in November, Republican leaders have returned to warning that America’s debt load is hurting the U.S. economy and refusing to raise the debt limit unless Mr. Biden agrees to pare back federal spending.The Congressional Budget Office projects the budget deficit will grow slightly this fiscal year, from $1.375 trillion to $1.41 trillion, then continue to rise for the course of the decade, topping $2 trillion in 2032.Those increases are being driven in part by the rising costs of Medicare and Social Security as members of the baby boom generation retire, and by the growing cost of servicing the nation’s $31.4 trillion debt following a series of rapid interest rate increases by the Fed in a bid to tame high inflation. Mr. Powell told lawmakers on Wednesday that “it isn’t that the debt today is unsustainable. It’s that the path is unsustainable.”The director of the budget office, Phillip L. Swagel, briefed lawmakers about deficit projections on Wednesday at the Capitol, warning they would eventually need to raise taxes, cut spending or both in order to mitigate rising debt. The office’s projections “suggest that, over the long term, changes in fiscal policy would need to be made to address the rising costs of interest and mitigate other adverse consequences of high and rising debt,” Mr. Swagel wrote in a slide deck presented to lawmakers.From 2024 to 2033, the budget office projects, deficits will total more than $20 trillion, driving gross federal debt to nearly $52 trillion.Mr. Biden’s proposals, if enacted in full, would reduce that growth by about 15 percent. They are not likely to be. Republicans have tried already this year to repeal tax increases and the Medicare prescription drug savings measures he signed last year.Through new laws he has signed and executive actions he has issued, Mr. Biden has approved policies that would add about $5 trillion to the national debt over a decade, according to estimates by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in Washington. Those include his 2021 economic aid law and debt relief for certain student loan borrowers, which is under challenge at the Supreme Court.It is unclear how Mr. Biden settled on the ultimate figure of nearly $3 trillion for his budget’s deficit reduction, or to what extent he agrees with Republicans who claim that the nation’s current levels of debt and deficits pose a risk to the economy.Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, did not directly answer a reporter’s questions this week on how Mr. Biden arrived at his preferred level of deficit reduction or whether the path of growth in the national debt is hurting the economy.“The president understands his fiscal responsibility. He understands how important it is to lower the deficit,” Ms. Jean-Pierre said.“He’s going to put forward a fiscal budget that is going to be responsible,” she added.Catie Edmondson More