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Trump’s Threats About the Dollar Could Push Other Countries to Find Alternatives

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President-elect Donald J. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that seek to replace the dollar in trade or undermine its global reserve currency status.When Republicans nominated Donald J. Trump to be their presidential candidate over the summer, the party’s platform included a pledge to maintain the role of the United States dollar as the world’s reserve currency.Since winning the election, Mr. Trump has indicated that he wants to deliver on that promise. Over the last week he warned that if the group of nations known as BRICS countries — which include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — tried to create their own currency to rival the dollar, he would punish them with 100 percent tariffs and shut them out of U.S. markets.“There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.The warning was intended to preserve the dollar’s premier status, but economists and analysts suggested that it could have the opposite effect. Although it appears unlikely that the BRICS would be able to create their own currency, the aggressive use of tariffs and sanctions by the United States is the reason that other nations have increasingly been considering alternatives to the dollar. By making such threats, Mr. Trump could end up accelerating that trend.“Threatening retaliation against the unlikely creation of a BRICS currency only reinforces the rest of the world’s concerns about the U.S. willingness to wield dollar dominance as an economic and geopolitical weapon,” said Eswar Prasad, the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “This will intensify other countries’ attempts to diversify away from use of the dollar for international payments and for foreign exchange reserves.”The dollar has been the world’s dominant currency for about a century and has served as the world’s reserve currency since the end of World War II. It makes up the majority of foreign exchange reserves held in global central banks and is widely used in international transactions such as trade and loans.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    U.S. Raises New Concerns Over Chinese Lending Practices

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    A Treasury official will call for greater transparency over emergency currency “swap” loans to struggling countries by China’s central bank.The United States is raising new concerns about China’s practice of making emergency loans to debt-ridden countries, warning that a lack of transparency surrounding such financing can mask the fiscal predicaments facing fragile economies that have turned to China for help.A senior Treasury official, Brent Neiman, publicly aired concerns about the practice in a speech on Tuesday in which he urged the International Monetary Fund to push China for greater clarity about its lending terms. The Biden administration broached the issue directly with Chinese officials in Washington this year during a meeting of a recently created bilateral economic and financial working group.Chinese loans to countries already struggling to repay their debts are being made through China’s central bank using so-called swap agreements. These agreements allow countries to borrow Chinese renminbi and keep those funds in their central reserves while using the U.S. dollars that they hold to repay foreign debts.The financing is essentially a line of credit, in which a country swaps its own currency for renminbi and agrees to pay Beijing a high interest rate. The arrangement allows those countries to use their dollar reserves to finance trade or other government needs. They can also use the funds to pay debts owed to Chinese banks or to make purchases from China, creating even deeper ties to its economy.China has provided more than $200 billion in emergency financing in recent years. Chinese state media reported this year that the central bank had 31 currency swap agreements in force worth a combined $586 billion. Chinese currency loans tend to come with higher interest rates than those offered by the Federal Reserve or the I.M.F.Such currency loans do not always appear on the balance sheet of the borrowing nation, obscuring the extent of its liabilities. That lack of information can make it harder for other investors to know how deeply in debt a country is and has fueled criticism that the Chinese loans could leave the recipients worse off.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump-Vance Administration Could Herald New Era for Dollar

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    Both candidates on the Republican ticket have argued that the U.S. currency should be weaker to support American exports.Donald J. Trump’s selection of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance to be his vice-presidential nominee pairs him with a kindred spirit on trade, taxes and a tough stance on China. But it is their shared affinity for a weak dollar that could have the most sweeping implications for the United States and the global economy.In most cases, Mr. Trump likes his policies to be “strong,” but when it comes to the value of the dollar, he has long expressed a different view. Its strength, he has argued, has made it harder for American manufacturers to sell their products abroad to buyers that use weaker currencies. That’s because their money is worth so much less than the dollars that they need to make those purchases.“As your president, one would think that I would be thrilled with our very strong dollar,” Mr. Trump said in 2019, explaining that U.S. companies like Caterpillar and Boeing were struggling to compete. “I am not!”The dollar has been the world’s dominant currency since World War II, and central banks hold about 60 percent of their foreign exchange reserves in dollars, according to the Congressional Research Service.The United States has maintained a “strong dollar” policy since the 1990s, when Robert E. Rubin, the Treasury secretary at the time, declared that he did not view it as a threat to the ability of American business to compete abroad. The United States avoids taking measures to steer the strength of the dollar, and Treasury secretaries tend to argue that currency values should be determined by market forces. When countries, such as China, have acted to weaken their currencies, the U.S. has shamed them as currency manipulators.It is not clear how Mr. Trump would go about weakening the dollar. His Treasury Department could try to sell dollars to buy foreign currency or try to persuade the Federal Reserve to just print more dollars.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Mystery of the Coin That Shouldn’t Exist

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    Scientists recently analyzed a Peruvian 10-cent piece with an unexplained origin.A decade ago, a funny money mystery fell into the hands of scientists and students at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru in Lima.The university had been acquiring 19th- and 20th-century Peruvian coins from local dealers, and graduate students in the chemistry department were analyzing the pieces for their thesis work. But one coin, a 10-cent piece known as a dinero, stood out.The dinero was marked “1899.” The problem was that official records indicated no coins of that denomination were minted in Peru that year — according to the people who made the money, the coin never existed.Most international coin catalogs don’t list 1899 dineros, said Luis Ortega, a chemist at the university. And in the rare cases that they do, there is often only a note of “counterfeit” with no further detail, Dr. Ortega said. “No one was able to provide more information about it.”Now Dr. Ortega and Fabiola Bravo Hualpa, a doctoral student, believe they have shed new light on the mystery of the coin that came from nowhere. In a paper published last year in the journal Heritage Science, they described how they subjected one of the two known 1899 dineros to a barrage of scientific analyses, illuminating its possible origins and the role it might have played during an unstable era of South American history.To the naked eye, the 1899 coin resembles other dineros: It’s silver in color and features the same coat of arms and seated woman that represents the goddess of liberty. And it’s remarkably similar in size to other dineros minted around the turn of the 20th century — about the dimensions of a U.S. dime.But when Dr. Ortega and Ms. Bravo Hualpa bombarded the 1899 coin with X-rays and measured the light it re-emitted, they determined that the dinero was largely made of copper, zinc and nickel. This alloy is known as nickel silver. It’s commonly used to make silverware and ornamental objects and has a silvery appearance, but it contains no silver. Genuine dineros produced by the Lima Mint, on the other hand, are roughly 90 percent silver.Dr. Ortega and Ms. Bravo Hualpa also found that the 1899 dinero contained traces of iron, cobalt and lead. Those impurities imply that the coin was counterfeited long ago, not more recently, the researchers suggest. Such contaminants are characteristic of older alloys because of limitations in technology at the time. “The refining methods were not as good as they are now,” Dr. Ortega said.The presence of impurities, paired with the coin’s worn faces, suggests that it was produced in the 19th or 20th centuries, the researchers concluded. But given that nickel silver wasn’t widely used for coins or tokens in Peru at that time, it’s likely that this coin was created abroad, the researchers suggest. Its producer might have therefore been wholly unaware that no dineros were officially minted in 1899.“The counterfeiter probably didn’t realize that that coin didn’t exist,” Dr. Ortega said.He said that an influx of low-value coinage would have been welcomed in Peru at the dawn of the 20th century. The country’s economy was reeling from the recent War of the Pacific, and the government was focusing on printing larger-denomination paper bank notes to pay off international loans; in 1899, the Lima Mint produced roughly one-tenth the number of silver coins it produced just five years earlier.As a result, people in Peru were using coins from neighboring nations or even cutting their own country’s coins in half to conduct small transactions. “Counterfeiters found a field of opportunity,” Dr. Ortega said.Dineros were low-denomination coins used by everyday people. Studying this coin, and the economic and political situation that prompted its creation, can therefore be illuminating. “If you want to study our society, you don’t want to look at a Ferrari,” said Laura Perucchetti, an archaeometallurgist at the British Museum in London, not involved in the research. “You want to look at a Volkswagen or a Ford.”Dr. Ortega is not finished studying counterfeit coins and their historical context. He plans to meet with a collector based in Lima who amassed an assortment of coins ostensibly minted from the 1830s through the 1960s. Another 1899 dinero has already surfaced in that collection, and he is on the lookout for more.“There must be a few around,” Dr. Ortega said. More

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    Under Argentina’s New President, Fuel Is Up 60%, and Diaper Prices Have Doubled

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    Javier Milei warned that things would get worse before they got better. Now Argentines are living it.Over the past two weeks, the owner of a hip wine bar in Buenos Aires saw the price of beef soar 73 percent, while the zucchini he puts in salads rose 140 percent. An Uber driver paid 60 percent more to fill her tank. And a father said he spent twice as much on diapers for his toddler than he did last month.In Argentina, a country synonymous with galloping inflation, people are used to paying more for just about everything. But under the country’s new president, life is quickly becoming even more painful.When Javier Milei was elected president on Nov. 19, the country was already suffering under the world’s third-highest rate of inflation, with prices up 160 percent from a year before.But since Mr. Milei took office on Dec. 10 and quickly devalued the Argentine currency, prices have soared at such a dizzying pace that many in this South American country of 46 million are running new calculations on how their businesses or households can survive the far deeper economic crunch the country is already enduring.“Since Milei won, we’ve been worried all the time,” said Fernando González Galli, 36, a high school philosophy teacher in Buenos Aires.Mr. Galli has been trying to cut back without making life worse for his two daughters, who are 6 years and 18 months old, including switching to a cheaper brand of diapers and racing to spend his Argentine pesos before their value disintegrates even further. “As soon as I get my paycheck, I go buy everything I can,” he said.Since Javier Milei took office on Dec. 10 and quickly devalued the Argentine currency, prices have risen at a dizzying pace.Emiliano Lasalvia/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesNahuel Carbajo, 37, an owner of Naranjo Bar, a trendy Buenos Aires wine bar, said that like most Argentines, he had become accustomed to regular price increases, but this past week went far beyond what even he was used to.Since Mr. Milei won, the price for the premium steak that Mr. Carbajo serves soared 73 percent, to 14,580 pesos, or roughly $18, per kilogram, about 2.2 pounds; a five-kilogram box of zucchinis rose to 15,600 pesos from 6,500; and avocados cost 51 percent more than the beginning of this month.“There’s no way for salaries or people’s incomes to adapt at that speed,” Mr. Carbajo said.Mr. Milei’s spokesman, Manuel Adorni, said accelerating inflation was the inevitable consequence of finally fixing Argentina’s distorted economy.“We’ve been left with a multitude of problems and unresolved issues that we have to start addressing,” he said. “Inevitably, we will go through months of high inflation.”Mr. Milei has warned Argentines that his plans to shrink the government and remake the economy would hurt at first. “I prefer to tell you the uncomfortable truth rather than a comfortable lie,” he said in his inaugural address, adding this past week that he wanted to end the country’s “model of decline.”Argentina’s economy has been mired in crisis for years, with chronic inflation, rising poverty and a currency that has plunged in value. The economic turmoil paved the way to the presidency for Mr. Milei, a political outsider who had spent years as an economist and television pundit railing against what he called corrupt politicians who had destroyed the economy, often for personal gain.During the campaign, he vowed to take a chain saw to public spending and regulations, even wielding an actual chain saw at rallies.After Mr. Milei’s victory, price increases began accelerating in expectation of his new policies.Buying fruit and vegetables in Buenos Aires. Argentines suffer under the world’s third highest rate of inflation.Tomas Cuesta/ReutersThe previous leftist government had used complicated currency controls, consumer subsidies and other measures to inflate the peso’s official value and keep several key prices artificially low, including gas, transportation and electricity.Mr. Milei vowed to undo all that, and he has wasted little time.Two days after taking office, Mr. Milei began cutting government spending, including consumer subsidies. He also devalued the peso by 54 percent, putting the government’s exchange rate much closer to the market’s valuation of the peso.Economists said such measures were necessary to fix Argentina’s long-term financial problems. But they also brought short-term pain in the form of even faster inflation. Some analysts questioned the lack of adequate safety nets for the poorest Argentines.In November, prices rose 13 percent from October, according to government data. Analysts predict prices will increase another 25 percent to 30 percent this month. And from now until February, some economists are forecasting an 80 percent jump, according to Santiago Manoukian, the chief economist at Ecolatina, an economics consulting firm.The forecasts are partly caused by soaring gas prices, which increased 60 percent from Dec. 7 to Dec. 13, and have a trickle-down effect on the economy.The currency devaluation made imported products like coffee, electronic devices and gas immediately more expensive because they are priced in U.S. dollars. A monthly Netflix subscription in Argentina jumped 60 percent to 6,676 pesos, or $8.30, the day after the devaluation, for example. It also prompted some domestic producers, including farmers and cattle ranchers, to increase prices to align them with their own rising costs.With the chronic high inflation, labor unions often negotiate large raises to try to keep up, yet those wage increases are quickly eaten up by sharp price hikes. Informal workers, a list that includes nannies and street vendors, and who make up nearly half of the economy, also do not get such raises.Outside a clothing store this month in Buenos Aires. In November, prices rose 13 percent from October, and analysts predict that prices will increase another 25 percent to 30 percent this month.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesOn Wednesday, Mr. Milei launched his next big steps to remake the government and economy with an emergency decree that significantly reduces the state’s role in the economy and eliminates a raft of regulations.The measure prohibits the state from regulating the rental real estate market and setting limits on fees that banks and health insurers can charge customers; changes labor laws to make it easier to fire workers while also placing limits on strikes; and turns state companies into corporations so they can be privatized.Many legal analysts immediately questioned the decree’s constitutionality, saying that Mr. Milei was trying to subvert Congress.After the speech, people across Buenos Aires, like Jesusa Orfelia Peralta, 73, a retiree, took to the streets banging on pots to show their displeasure.She worried that price increases would make proper health care too expensive for her and her husband. Despite severe spinal problems, she said she did not hesitate to head out, using a walker, and vent her anger in public. “Where else would I be?” she said.A protest on Wednesday in Buenos Aires against Mr. Milei’s austerity measures.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Milei has sought to discourage protests by threatening to cancel welfare plans and fine anyone involved in demonstrations that block roads. Human rights groups have widely criticized such policies as restricting the right to peacefully protest.For now, most Argentines are trying to figure out how to make ends meet in what often feels like both a complicated course in economics and a frenzied sprint to buy before prices rise again.“I always say that we are at university, and every day we sit for a difficult exam, every five minutes,” Roberto Nicolás Ormeño, an owner of El Gauchito, a small empanada shop in downtown Buenos Aires.Mr. Ormeño said he had been scouring the market for his ingredients and changing suppliers almost every week, either because they increase prices too much or provide poorer quality products.He is trying to avoid passing along too much of his price increases to customers, though he is unsure how long he can sustain that. “I see my frequent customers buying one dozen instead of two” dozen empanadas, he said.Marisol del Valle Cardozo, who has a 3-year-old daughter, has been cutting back in a bid to make ends meet, turning to cheaper brands and going out less. “We don’t turn the air-conditioning on as much,” she said. “We decreased our plans on weekends from four times a month to just once.”Ms. Cardozo, who works for a police department outside Buenos Aires, said that she got a raise this year, but that it is already not enough. She also drives an Uber, but said that fare increases had not kept up with the soaring gas prices.Despite the challenges, Ms. Cardozo said she remained a Milei supporter and was hoping his policies work.“We were living under a fantasy,” she said, referring to gas prices before the recent hike. “If these adjustments are necessary to thrive in the end, they’re worth it.”Protesters in front of the National Congress on Thursday in Buenos Aires.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesJack Nicas More

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    Cómo sale el dinero de China

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    Las personas chinas acaudaladas han sacado cientos de miles de millones de dólares del país este año, aprovechando el fin de las precauciones por covid que habían sellado casi por completo las fronteras de China durante casi tres años.Están utilizando sus ahorros para comprar apartamentos en el extranjero, acciones y pólizas de seguros. Ahora que pueden volar de nuevo a Tokio, Londres y Nueva York, los viajeros chinos han comprado apartamentos en Japón y han invertido dinero en cuentas en Estados Unidos o Europa que pagan intereses más altos que en China, donde las tasas son bajas y sigue cayendo.La salida de dinero indica, en parte, el malestar existente en China por su vacilante recuperación tras la pandemia, así como por problemas más profundos, como la alarmante desaceleración del sector inmobiliario, principal depósito de riqueza de las familias. Para algunas personas, también es una reacción a los temores sobre la dirección de la economía bajo el liderazgo de Xi Jinping, que ha tomado medidas enérgicas contra las empresas y ha reforzado la influencia del gobierno en muchos aspectos de la sociedad.En algunos casos, los residentes chinos están improvisando maneras de eludir los estrictos controles gubernamentales de su país sobre las transferencias de dinero al extranjero. Han comprado lingotes de oro lo suficientemente pequeños como para esparcirlos discretamente por el equipaje de mano, así como grandes cantidades de divisas extranjeras.Los bienes inmuebles también son una opción. Los chinos se han convertido en los principales compradores de apartamentos en Tokio que cuestan 3 millones de dólares o más, y a menudo pagan con maletas llenas de dinero en efectivo, dijo Zhao Jie, director ejecutivo de Shenjumiaosuan, un servicio en línea de venta de inmuebles en Tokio. “Es un trabajo muy duro contar esta cantidad de dinero en efectivo”.Antes de la pandemia, dijo, los compradores chinos solían comprar estudios en Tokio por 330.000 dólares o menos para alquilarlos. Ahora compran unidades mucho más grandes y obtienen visas de inversión para trasladar a sus familias.El Park Tower Harumi, un complejo de apartamentos de lujo en Tokio que ha atraído a compradores de China continental.Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesLos jardines del Branz Tower Toyosu, otro proyecto de apartamentos de lujo en Tokio que también ha atraído a compradores de China continental.Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesEn total, se calcula que este año han salido de China unos 50.000 millones de dólares al mes, principalmente de hogares chinos y empresas del sector privado.Los expertos dijeron que el ritmo de salida de dinero de China probablemente no representaba un riesgo inminente para la economía del país, de 17 billones de dólares, en gran parte porque las exportaciones de muchos de los principales productos manufacturados del país son fuertes, lo que devuelve un flujo constante de efectivo.Una amplia operación para enviar los ahorros familiares a otra parte podría ser motivo de alarma. Las salidas de dinero a gran escala han desencadenado crisis financieras en las últimas décadas en América Latina, el sudeste asiático e incluso la propia China, a finales de 2015 y principios de 2016.Hasta ahora, todo indica que el gobierno chino cree tener la situación bajo control. La salida de dinero de China ha debilitado la moneda, el renminbi, frente al dólar y otras divisas. Y esa debilidad del renminbi ha ayudado a mantener las exportaciones del país, que sostienen decenas de millones de empleos chinos.El flujo de dinero que sale de China “es muy manejable”, dijo Wang Dan, economista jefe para China en la oficina de Shanghái del Hang Seng Bank.Personas comprando joyas en LukFook.Billy H.C. Kwok para The New York TimesLos legisladores chinos siguen recurriendo a algunos de los límites a la salida de dinero del país que impusieron para frenar la crisis monetaria hace ocho años. Otras restricciones que se hicieron entonces, como el escrutinio de las exportaciones e importaciones para detectar estrategias encubiertas de transferencias internacionales de dinero, se dejaron sin efecto y no se han vuelto a imponer este año, a pesar de que se han reanudado las salidas de dinero.La salida de dinero de China ha igualado aproximadamente la entrada de dinero por los grandes superávits comerciales del país. Para consternación de muchos países, sobre todo europeos, China está exportando cada vez más paneles solares, autos eléctricos y otros productos avanzados, incluso cuando ha reemplazado más importaciones por producción nacional.El valor del renminbi cayó a principios de año a su nivel más bajo en 16 años. Durante gran parte de los dos últimos meses, se mantuvo en torno a los 7,3 por dólar, antes de subir un poco en la última semana.En 2015, los inversores que operan a tiempo real observaron fuertes ventas masivas de acciones chinas, cuando la salida de dinero del país provocó turbulencias en los mercados de todo el mundo.Ng Han Guan/Associated PressLa oleada de dinero que salió de China hace ocho años fue provocada por una caída en la bolsa de valores y un intento fallido de devaluar la moneda de forma controlada. El banco central de China tuvo que gastar hasta 100.000 millones de dólares al mes de sus reservas de divisas extranjeras para apuntalar el renminbi.En cambio, China parece haber gastado unos 15.000 millones de dólares al mes desde mediados de verano para estabilizar su moneda, según datos del banco central. “No hay nada que sugiera que sea desordenada”, dijo Brad Setser, especialista en finanzas internacionales del Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores. “La escala de la presión sigue siendo mucho menor que en 2015 o 2016”.Las salidas de 2015 y 2016 reflejaron los esfuerzos de las grandes empresas estatales por trasladar fuertes sumas de dinero al extranjero. En la actualidad, el gobierno ejerce un control político más estricto sobre esas empresas, y no ha habido indicios de una urgencia por movilizar dinero de su parte.En cambio, las empresas privadas y los hogares chinos han estado trasladando dinero al extranjero. Pero gran parte de la riqueza de la gente está anclada a bienes inmuebles, que no pueden venderse fácilmente.Al mismo tiempo, las empresas ilegales de cambio de moneda de Shanghái, Shenzhen y otras ciudades que solían convertir el renminbi en dólares y otras divisas extranjeras fueron cerradas por redadas policiales hace ocho años.Turistas chinos frente al Casino Londoner de Macao en octubrePeter Parks/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesTuristas chinos en un ferry durante una excursión a Hong KongBilly H.C. Kwok para The New York TimesY los reguladores han cerrado casi todos los viajes de apuestas a Macao, una región china de administración especial. Estos viajes permitían a los chinos adinerados comprar fichas de casino con renminbi, apostar una parte en el bacará o la ruleta y convertir el resto en dólares.Pekín también ha prohibido la mayoría de las inversiones extranjeras en hoteles, torres de oficinas y otros activos de escaso valor geopolítico. El arquitecto de las restricciones a la inversión extranjera en China, Pan Gongsheng, fue ascendido en julio a gobernador del banco central, el Banco Popular de China.Pero los hogares y las empresas siguen arreglándoselas para enviar dinero al extranjero.Una tarde reciente, las sucursales del Banco de China y del China Merchants Bank en China continental vendían lingotes de oro un 7 por ciento más caros que sus bancos afiliados en la adyacente Hong Kong. Esa diferencia de precios indica que, dentro de China, existe una gran demanda de oro, que puede trasladarse fácilmente fuera del país.Otro truco que están utilizando los residentes de China continental para sacar su dinero es abrir cuentas bancarias en Hong Kong y luego transferir dinero para comprar productos de seguros que se asemejan a certificados de depósito bancario. Según la Autoridad de Seguros de Hong Kong, las primas de las nuevas pólizas de seguro vendidas a los habitantes de China continental que visitan Hong Kong fueron un 21,3 por ciento más altas en el primer semestre de este año que en el primer semestre de 2019, tras casi desaparecer durante la pandemia.Una larga fila frente al Banco de China en Hong Kong el lunesBilly H.C. Kwok para The New York TimesEn una sucursal del Banco de China en la península de Kowloon, en Hong Kong, los habitantes de China continental esperaban a las 7:30 de una mañana reciente para abrir cuentas, 90 minutos antes de la apertura del banco. La fila era tan larga a las 8 a. m. que quien llegaba más tarde tenía suerte de llegar al principio de la fila antes de que terminara la jornada laboral, dijo Valerius Luo, agente de seguros de Hong Kong.Las familias suelen invertir entre 30.000 y 50.000 dólares estadounidenses en productos de seguros, varias veces más que antes, mientras buscan lugares seguros donde colocar sus ahorros, dijo Luo. “Sigue habiendo personas con un capital poderoso”, dijo, “y quieren un paquete de inversión que conserve el valor”.Li You More

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    How West Africa Can Reap More Profit From the Global Chocolate Market

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    Resource-rich countries like Ghana are often cut out of lucrative parts of the business like manufacturing. The “fairchain movement” wants to change that.The first leg of the 35-mile journey from Ghana’s capital city, Accra, to the Fairafric chocolate factory in Amanase on the N6 highway is a quick ride. But after about 30 minutes, the smoothly paved road devolves into a dirt expanse without lanes. Lumbering trucks, packed commuter minivans, cars and motorcycles crawl along craggy, rutted stretches bordered by concrete dividers, muddy patches and heaps of rock.The stopgap roadway infrastructure is one of the challenges Fairafric has had to navigate to build a factory in this West African country. The area had no fiber-optic connection to Ghana’s telecommunications network. No local banks were interested in lending the company money. And it required the personal intervention of Ghana’s president before construction could even begin in 2020.The global chocolate industry is a multibillion-dollar confection, and Africa grows 70 percent of the world’s raw cocoa beans. But it produces only 1 percent of the chocolate — missing out on a part of the business that generates the biggest returns and is dominated by American and European multinationals.The Fairafric chocolate factory powered by solar energy in Amanase, Ghana. The company aims to create stable, well-paying jobs.Francis Kokoroko for The New York TimesCapturing a bigger share of the profits generated by chocolate sales and keeping them in Ghana — the second-largest cocoa exporter behind Ivory Coast — is the animating vision behind Fairafric. The aim is to manufacture the chocolate and create stable, well-paying jobs in the place where farmers grow the cocoa.Many developing countries are lucky to have large reserves of natural resources. In Ghana, it’s cocoa. In Botswana, it’s diamonds. In Nigeria and Azerbaijan, it’s oil. But the commodity blessing can become a curse when the sector sucks up an outsize share of labor and capital, which in turn hampers the economy from diversifying and stunts long-term growth.“Look at the structure of the economy,” Aurelien Kruse, the lead country economist in the Accra office of the World Bank, said of Ghana. “It’s not an economy that has diversified fully.”The dependency on commodities can lead to boom-and-bust cycles because their prices swing with changes in supply and demand. And without other sectors to rely on during a downturn — like manufacturing or tech services — these economies can crash.“Prices are very volatile,” said Joseph E. Stiglitz, a former chief economist at the World Bank. In developing nations dependent on commodities, economic instability is built into the system.Workers making the chocolate products. By keeping manufacturing in Ghana, Fairafric supports other local businesses.Francis Kokoroko for The New York TimesA batch of chocolate bars being inspected . . .Francis Kokoroko for The New York Times. . . and packaged at the Fairafric chocolate factory.Francis Kokoroko for The New York TimesBut creating industrial capacity is exceedingly difficult in a place like Ghana. Outside large cities, reliable electricity, water and sanitation systems may need to be set up. The suppliers, skilled workers, and necessary technology and equipment may not be readily available. And start-ups may not initially produce enough volume for export to pay for expensive shipping costs.Fairafric might not have succeeded if its founder and chief executive — a German social-minded entrepreneur named Hendrik Reimers — had not upended the status quo.The pattern of exporting cheap raw materials to richer countries that use them to manufacture valuable finished goods is a hangover from colonial days. Growing and harvesting cocoa is the lowest-paid link in the chocolate value chain. The result is that farmers receive a mere 5 or 6 percent of what a chocolate bar sells for in Paris, Chicago or Tokyo.Mr. Reimers’s goal is aligned with the “fairchain movement,” which argues that the entire production process should be in the country that produces the raw materials.The idea is to create a profitable company and distribute the gains more equitably — among farmers, factory workers and small investors in Ghana. By keeping manufacturing at home, Fairafric supports other local businesses, like the paper company that supplies the chocolate wrappers. It also helps to build infrastructure. Now that Fairafric has installed the fiber optic connections in this rural area, other start-up businesses can plug in.Cocoa pods harvested in a cocoa farm in Ghana.Francis Kokoroko/ReutersA worker from Fairafric chocolate factory visiting a cocoa farm in the Budu community.Francis Kokoroko for The New York TimesThe last few years have severely tested the strategy. Ghana’s economy was punched by the coronavirus pandemic. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fueled a rapid increase in food, energy and fertilizer prices. Rising inflation prompted the Federal Reserve and other central banks to raise interest rates.In Ghana, the global headwinds exacerbated problems that stemmed from years of excessive government spending and borrowing.As inflation climbed, reaching a peak of 54 percent, Ghana’s central bank raised interest rates. They are now at 30 percent. Meanwhile, the value of the currency, the cedi, tumbled against the dollar, more than halving the purchasing power of consumers and businesses.At the end of last year, Ghana defaulted on its foreign loans and turned to the International Monetary Fund for emergency relief.“The economic situation of the country has not made it easy,” said Frederick Affum, Fairafric’s accounting manager. “Every kind of funding that we have had has been outside the country.”Even before the national default, Ghana’s local banks were drawn to the high interest rates the government was offering to attract investors wary of its outsize debt. As a result, the banks were reluctant to invest in local businesses. They “didn’t take the risk of investing in the real economy,” said Mavis Owusu-Gyamfi, the executive vice president of the African Center for Economic Transformation in Accra.“The economic situation of the country has not made it easy,” said Frederick Affum, accounting manager at Fairafric.Francis Kokoroko for The New York TimesFairafric started with a crowdsourced fund-raising campaign in 2015. A family-owned chocolate company in Germany bought a stake in 2019 and turned Fairafric into a subsidiary.In 2020, a low-interest loan of 2 million euros from a German development bank that supports investments in Africa by European companies was crucial to getting the venture off the ground.Then the pandemic hit, and President Nana Akufo-Addo closed Ghana’s borders and suspended international commercial flights. The shutdown meant that a team of German and Swiss engineers who had been overseeing construction of a solar-powered Fairafric factory in Amanase could not enter the country.So Michael Marmon-Halm, Fairafric’s managing director, wrote a letter to the president appealing for help.“He opened the airport,” Mr. Marmon-Halm said. “This company received the most critical assistance at the most critical moment.”Both Ghana and Ivory Coast, which account for 60 percent of the world cocoa market, have moved to raise the minimum price of cocoa and expand processing inside their borders.In Ghana, the government created a free zone that gives factories a tax break if they export most of their product. And this month, Mr. Akufo-Addo announced an increase in the minimum price that buyers must pay farmers next season.Cocoa pods at a cocoa farm in the Budu community . . .Francis Kokoroko for The New York Times. . . which reveal a pulpy white bean when cracked open.Francis Kokoroko for The New York TimesFairafric, which buys beans from roughly 70 small farmers in the eastern region of Ghana, goes further, paying a premium for its organically grown beans — an additional $600 per ton above the global market price.Farmers harvest the ripe yellow pods by hand, and then crack them open with a cutlass, or thick stick. The pulpy white beans are stacked under plantain leaves to ferment for a week before they are dried in the sun.On the edge of a cocoa farm in Budu, a few minutes from the factory, a bare-bones, open-sided concrete shed with wooden benches and rectangular blackboards houses the school. Attendance is down, the principal said, because the school has not been included in the government’s free school feeding program.The factory employs 95 people. They have health insurance and are paid above the minimum wage. Salaries are pegged to the dollar to protect against currency fluctuations. Because of spotty transportation networks, the company set up a free commuter van for workers. Fairafric also installed a free canteen so all the factory shifts can eat breakfast, lunch or dinner on site.Mr. Marmon-Halm said the company was looking to raise an additional $1 million to expand. He noted that the chocolate industry generated an enormous amount of wealth.But “if you want to get the full benefit,” he said, “you have to go beyond just selling beans.”Students by a stream in the Budu community, a cocoa farming village.Francis Kokoroko for The New York Times More

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    The Debt Limit Workarounds: The Coin, the Constitution, Premium Bonds

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    As Congress hurtles toward a debt limit showdown, ways to work around it are garnering attention.Move over, trillion-dollar coin, there is a new debt limit workaround in town — and this one sounds more sophisticated, which some of its proponents have suggested could make it more likely to work.For years, debt limit skeptics have argued that the United States can get around the cap on how much it can borrow by minting a large-denomination coin, depositing it in the government’s account at the Federal Reserve. Officials could then use the resulting money to pay the country’s bills. The maneuver would exploit a quirk in U.S. law, which gives the Treasury secretary wide discretion when it comes to minting platinum coins.But there have always been challenges with the idea: Treasury has expressed little appetite. It is unclear whether the Fed would take the coin. It just sounds unconventional to the point of absurdity. And now, some are arguing for a fancier-sounding alternative: premium bonds.The government typically funds itself by issuing debt in the form of financial securities called bonds and bills. They are worth a set amount after a fixed period of time — for example, $1,000 in 10 years — and they pay “coupons” twice a year in between. Typically, those coupon rates are set near market interest rates.But in the premium bond idea, the government would renew old, expiring bonds at higher coupon rates. Doing so would not technically add to the nation’s debt — if the government previously had a 10-year bond worth $1,000 outstanding, it would still have a 10-year bond worth $1,000 outstanding. But investors would pay more to hold a bond that pays $7 a year than one that pays $3.50, so promising a higher interest rate would allow Treasury to raise more money.Would those higher interest rates, which would cost the government more money, pose a problem? Not technically. The debt limit applies to the face value of outstanding federal government debt ($1,000 in our example), not future promises to pay interest.And the idea could also come in a slightly different flavor. The government could issue bonds that pay regular coupons, but which never pay back principal, or perpetual bonds. People would buy them for the long-term cash stream, and they would not add to the principal of debt outstanding.The premium bond idea has gained support from some big names. The economic commentator Matthew Yglesias brought it up in January, the Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine has written about it, and The New York Times columnist and Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman made a case for it this week.But even some proponents of premium bonds acknowledge that it could face legal challenges or damage the United States’ reputation in the eyes of investors. Plus, their design and issuance would have to happen fast.“Normally, Treasury makes changes slowly, with lots of consulting of bond market participants and advance announcement of auctions,” said Joseph E. Gagnon, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, adding that the government might have to offer a discount.But, he added, it “sure beats defaulting” and he “would argue it is better than not paying workers or retirees.”While the premium bond idea might come in different packaging, it has a lot of similarities with the coin idea. Either plan would exploit a loophole to add to government coffers without actually lifting the debt limit. Because both are seen as gimmicky, it could be hard for either to become reality.Of all the options the government could use to unilaterally get around the debt ceiling, “they are the least likely in our opinion,” said Chris Krueger, a policy analyst at TD Cowen.But a workaround that hinges on the 14th Amendment could garner broader support, Mr. Krueger said. That would leverage a clause in the Constitution that says that the validity of public debt should not be questioned.Some legal scholars contend that language overrides the statutory borrowing limit, which currently caps federal debt at $31.4 trillion. The idea is that the government’s responsibility to pay what it owes would trump the debt limit rules — so the debt limit could be ignored.It would not be a perfect solution: The move would draw an immediate court challenge and could sow uncertainty in the bond market, even its proponents acknowledge. Still, some White House officials have looked into the option. More

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    Rules to Curb Illicit Dollar Flows Create Hardships for Iraqis

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    The regulations were meant to prevent dollar transfers to those targeted by U.S. sanctions on Iran, Syria and Russia. But they have ended up harming ordinary Iraqis who need U.S. currency for business or travel.BAGHDAD — When the United States and Iraq put tough new currency rules into effect recently, the intent was to stem the illicit flow of dollars to those targeted by U.S. sanctions on Iran, Syria and Russia, as well as to terrorist organizations and money launderers.But in a country with a primarily cash economy, the changes created unintended hardships for ordinary Iraqis who need dollars for legitimate business purposes or travel abroad. Dollars have run short, and the cost in Iraqi dinars at some local currency traders has surged.Long lines are forming early in the day outside money changers’ shops, where Iraqis planning to travel outside the country often turn up grasping plastic bags stuffed with dinars, which banks outside the country do not accept. These days, it’s not easy to find a money changer who still has dollars. And those who do run out early.“I don’t have any dollars left,” one currency trader, Abu Ali, said last week at his shop in Baghdad’s Karrada neighborhood.The new currency rules, worked out in an agreement between the United States and Iraq, require greater transparency surrounding the transfers of dollars held as foreign currency reserves for Iraq in an account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. They went into effect late last year.The agreement was part of a long-delayed modernization of Iraq’s financial system as it begins to conform to the rules that most countries follow and adapts to requirements for more transparency in international financial transactions.U.S. dollars being counted at an authorized currency dealer in Baghdad.Joao Silva/The New York TimesEvery day, the Central Bank of Iraq facilitates the withdrawal of a large sum of dollars from its account at the New York Fed. The transfers are critical because, in Iraq’s largely cash economy, only a few businesses accept credit cards and almost no ordinary Iraqis have one. Even bank accounts are a rarity.Some of the money is wired on behalf of Iraqi businesses to pay for goods from outside Iraq. Some of it is designated for currency exchanges and banks to distribute to Iraqis traveling abroad.But there has been little in the way of electronic footprints to help U.S. officials trace whether some of the transfers were ending up in the hands of parties targeted by U.S. sanctions.A dollar shortage affecting ordinary Iraqis is one of the unintended consequences of new and tougher rules worked out by Iraq’s central bank in concert with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Joao Silva/The New York TimesThe concerns date back to soon after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.At that time, American authorities tried unsuccessfully to document the chain of custody for billions of dollars transported to the country in cash over a period of years. In one instance, $1.2 billion from Iraq was found in a Lebanese bunker with no record of how it got there, according to a New York Times investigation in 2014.The U.S. Treasury wanted to ensure that dollars were not being sent in violation of U.S. law to fronts or agents for parties under sanctions or terrorist entities. In congressional testimony in 2016, for example, a top Treasury official noted three groups targeted by sanctions that were known to be active in Iraq: Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah.With the Islamic State’s takeover of northern Iraq in 2014, it seized of a branch of Iraq’s central bank and those worries became more urgent.The situation underscored the need for more transparency in dollar transfers to Iraq, according to a U.S. Treasury official, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak with reporters.An authorized currency exchange. Joao Silva/The New York TimesAfter the Iraqis finally defeated the Islamic State in 2018, Iraqi and U.S. bankers and the Treasury began to discuss a new system for money transfers.Under the new regulations, both individuals and companies requesting wire transfers of dollars must disclose their own identity, and the identity of whoever is ultimately getting the money. That information is then reviewed by an electronic system as well as by experts at Iraq’s central bank and the New York Fed, before payment is made.The new system allows banks around the world to conduct automatic checks on transfers of money from Iraq to other countries, said Ahmed Tabaqchali, the chief strategist for Asia Frontier Capital’s Iraq fund.“In short, the system heightens the visibility of red flags,” he said.Waiting at a currency exchange in Baghdad.Joao Silva/The New York TimesNow, many requests are being rejected, said Mudher Salih, a former deputy head of Iraq’s central bank and now a financial policy adviser to Iraq’s new prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Sometimes, he said, that is because of suspect identities but other times it is because many Iraqi businesses do not have the requisite licenses to import goods or are not properly registered as commercial entities and therefore are in violation of Iraqi law.The rejections have created a shortage of dollars, which has sharply increased their cost for Iraqis with legitimate needs, he added.Since 2003, there have been two Iraqi dinar rates for buying dollars; an official rate established by Iraq’s central bank and an unofficial street rate, which is higher. And when dollars are scarce, the street price goes up.The difference between the two is creating hardships for Iraqis like Janna, a mother of four. She said she had been saving up to buy a refrigerator and had her eye on a German model that cost about $250. In October, that was the equivalent of 320,000 dinars. Today, because of the scarcity of dollars, the refrigerator would cost 375,000 dinars.“It’s more than I can afford,” she said.Shoppers in Baghdad’s busy Karrada neighborhood.Joao Silva/The New York TimesAfter the new currency rules took effect, the quantity of dollars flowing daily into Iraq fell sharply — on some days down by nearly 65 percent from $180 million to $67 million — compared with the period before the rules were implemented, according to daily cash flow numbers released by Iraq’s central bank.The influx of dollars has since picked up, but it is still often less than half of what it was before the new system was put in place.It is not clear exactly how much of the drop in dollars reflects illicit recipients who have now either stopped requesting money because they do not want to make the disclosures required by the new rules or because the Iraqi central bank or the New York Fed rejected their requests.“I would not put down to fraud the almost 90 percent drop,” said Douglas Silliman, president of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and a former U.S. ambassador to Iraq. “Maybe it’s 45 percent fraud and 45 percent incompetence or just not knowing how to deal with the new regulations.”Iraq’s financial system is going through a long-delayed modernization as it begins to conform to the rules followed in many other countries.Joao Silva/The New York TimesYasmine Mosimann More