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    I.M.F. Says Inflation Fight Is Largely Over but Warns of New Threats

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    The International Monetary Fund said protectionism and new trade wars could weigh on growth.The global economy has managed to avoid falling into a recession even though the world’s central banks have raised interest rates to their highest levels in years to try to tame rapid inflation, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.But the I.M.F., in a new report, also cautioned that escalating violence in the Middle East and the prospect of a new round of trade wars stemming from political developments in the United States remain significant threats.New economic forecasts released by the fund on Tuesday showed that the global fight against soaring prices has largely been won: Global output is expected to hold steady at 3.2 percent this year and next. Fears of a widespread post-pandemic contraction have been averted, but the fund warned that many countries still face a challenging mix of high debt and sluggish growth.The report was released as finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world convened in Washington for the annual meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. The gathering is taking place two weeks ahead of a presidential election in the United States that could result in a major shift toward protectionism and tariffs if former President Donald J. Trump is elected.Mr. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs of as much as 50 percent, most likely setting off retaliation and trade wars. Economists think that could fuel price increases and slow growth, possibly leading to a recession.“Fear of a Trump presidency will loudly reverberate behind the scenes,” said Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who is now the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Mr. Sobel said global policymakers would probably be wondering what another Trump presidency would “mean for the future of multilateralism, international cooperation, U.S.-China stresses and their worldwide ripples, and global trade and finance, among others.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The Best Books About the Economy to Read Before the 2024 Election

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    Voters are forever worried about the economy — the price of homes and groceries, the rise and fall of the stock market, and, of course, taxes — but the economic policies that affect these things often seem unapproachable. Donald Trump wants to cut taxes and raise tariffs. Kamala Harris wants to raise taxes on high-income households and expand the social safety net. But what does that mean? And what are they hoping to achieve?Part of what makes economic policy difficult is the need to understand not just the direct impact of a change but also its many indirect effects. A tax credit to buy houses, for example, might end up benefiting home sellers more than home purchasers if a surge in demand drives up prices.The mathematics and jargon that economists use in journals facilitate precise scientific communication, which has the indirect effect of excluding everyone else. Meanwhile, the “economists” you see on TV or hear on the radio are more often telling you (usually incorrectly) whether the economy will go into recession without explaining why.But some authors do a good job of walking the line between accessibility and expertise. Here are five books to help you crack the nut on the economy before Election Day.The Little Book of EconomicsBy Greg IpThe best way to understand things like the causes of recessions and inflation and the consequences of public debt is to take an introductory economics course and do all the problem sets. The second-best way? Read “The Little Book of Economics.” Don’t be fooled by its compact form and breezy writing: This book, by the Wall Street Journal chief economics commentator Greg Ip, manages to pack in just about everything you wanted to know but were afraid to ask about the gross domestic product.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    With $32 Billion in Aid, Native Americans Push Against History of Neglect

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    Cortez, a Colorado town of about 9,000 people tucked near the San Juan Mountains, has the trappings of a humble but healthy small-town economy: bustling businesses, congenial single-family homes, a park with grassy fields, a public pool, playgrounds, a pond and skate ramps.A couple of hours southwest is Tuba City, Ariz., the largest community on Navajo Nation tribal lands. It has roughly the same population as Cortez, and it is surrounded by the same sandstone and mesa-filled terrain. But despite the area’s rich history of trade, and its proximity to thriving cities like Flagstaff and tourist sites like the Grand Canyon, widespread poverty and a lack of public services are notably entrenched — the stark reality across many reservations throughout the country.Gas stations, dollar stores and fast-food chains fill most of the skinny commercial strips. R.V. trailers and other mobile homes make up much of the housing stock. One in three Navajo households has income below the federal poverty line. Red dust whiffling in from desert winds tends to be more common than the dust stirred up by builders.Gas stations, dollar stores and fast-food chains fill most of Tuba City’s skinny commercial strips. Sharon Chischilly for The New York TimesAt the town’s center, though, is a recent exception: the construction of a 5,500-square-foot senior center, whose $5 million cost is partly financed with about $1 million from the American Rescue Plan Act, passed in 2021.That package, primarily meant to address the economic and public health crises caused by Covid-19, included $32 billion in short- and longer-term assistance for tribes and reservations: aid for households and tribal government coffers, community development grants, health services and infrastructure; as well as access to the $10 billion State Small Business Credit Initiative program, which previously excluded tribal nations.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    How Kamala Harris’s Economic Plan Has Been Shaped by Business Leaders

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    The vice president has repeatedly incorporated suggestions from business executives into her economic agenda.When two of Vice President Kamala Harris’s closest advisers arrived in New York last month, they were seeking advice. The Democratic nominee was preparing to give her most far-reaching economic speech, and Tony West, Ms. Harris’s brother-in-law, and Brian Nelson, a longtime confidant, wanted to know how the city’s powerful financiers thought she should approach it.Over two days, the pair held meetings across Wall Street, including at the offices of Lazard, an investment bank, and the elite law firm Paul, Weiss. Among the ideas the attendees pitched was to provide more lucrative tax breaks for companies that allowed their workers to become part owners, according to two people at the meetings. The campaign had already been discussing such an idea with an executive at KKR, the private equity firm.A few days later, Ms. Harris endorsed the idea during her speech in Pittsburgh. “We will reform our tax laws to make it easier for businesses to let workers share in their company’s success,” she said.The line, while just a piece of a much broader speech, was emblematic of Ms. Harris’s approach to economic policy since she took the helm of the Democratic Party in July. As part of a bid to cut into former President Donald J. Trump’s polling lead on the economy, her campaign has carefully courted business leaders, organizing a steady stream of meetings and calls in which corporate executives and donors offer their thoughts on tax policy, financial regulation and other issues.The private feedback has, in sometimes subtle ways, shaped Ms. Harris’s economic agenda over the course of her accelerated campaign. At several points, she has sprinkled language into broader speeches that business executives say reflects their views. And, in at least one instance, Ms. Harris made a specific policy commitment — to pare back a tax increase on capital gains — after extended talks with her corporate allies.This article is based on interviews with more than two dozen campaign officials, policy experts, donors, lobbyists and business leaders.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Port Strike’s End Is an Economic Relief to Savannah, Ga.

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    Viewed through a narrow lens, Savannah is a popular tourist destination with a seemingly aesthetic profile, accentuated by its Revolutionary War history, historic Black churches and colorful Victorian homes surrounded by Spanish moss.For big companies, the city’s primary attraction has been a grittier side that has fueled an economic transformation over the decades: Savannah is the No. 2 ocean cargo complex on the East Coast, home to thriving container terminals that handle millions of tons of freight each year.That economic motor for the city and the region sputtered to a stop this week after thousands of dockworkers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association, or I.L.A., went on strike from Maine to Texas.Instead of a stream of trucks moving big boxes in and out of the port, a group of around 100 dockworkers stood outside the main gates on Tuesday, intermittently chanting, “No contract, no work,” with traffic reduced to vehicles that drove by honking in solidarity with the striking workers.But after three days, the group representing port operators made a new pay offer, and the union suspended the walkout.On Friday, the Port of Savannah was humming again.Trucks started lining up in front of the gates of the Garden City Terminal before sunrise, and by midmorning, large container ships made their way down the Savannah River, in clear view of the city’s downtown.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Interest Rates Fall, but Central Banks Are No Longer in Lock Step

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    Officials in some countries started cutting rates last year, but others, including those in Europe and the United States, have taken a more cautious approach.Two years ago, central banks around the world were engaged in a battle against high inflation that resulted in an aggressive and synchronized jump in interest rates. Now, many policymakers are reversing course — but in a less coordinated way as price increases slow at different paces in various countries.Central bankers in some emerging markets began cutting rates last year. European officials started a slow and cautious easing of interest rates just a few months ago. The biggest outlier had been the Federal Reserve, which had kept rates high for more than a year and throughout the summer. On Wednesday, it joined the crowd and cut rates — in a big way — for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.“A few months ago, we were still in the space of American exceptionalism,” said Katharine Neiss, an economist at PGIM Fixed Income, an asset manager. There was the expectation that the resilience of the U.S. economy would lead to higher rates for longer, she said. “That was creating a lot of stresses and strains for the rest of the world,” she added.If the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday can ensure a so-called soft landing for the U.S. economy, where inflation is brought down without a severe recession, then that is “really good news for the rest of the world,” Ms. Neiss said. It also eases global financial conditions and reduces pressure on currencies that were taking a hit from the dollar’s strength.Now, the dominant theme around the world is central banks lowering interest rates as inflation slows, falling within sight of their targets, and economic growth weakens. Still, policymakers have been cautious about moving too quickly and reigniting inflationary pressures.The Bank of Canada has cut rates three times since June. Last week, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second time in three months. The Bank of England held rates steady on Thursday after cutting just once last month.Central banks in Norway and Sweden are also expected to hold rates at their meetings later in September, emphasizing their gradual approach. Among emerging markets, the South African central bank cut rates for the first time in four years on Thursday.Still, there are global outliers. Japan belatedly responded to rising inflation by raising rates in July. Investors suggest that the Bank of Japan is more likely to raise rates again in the near future. Nigeria has been raising rates this year as inflation has jumped and, late on Wednesday, Brazil’s central bank raised rates amid concerns that faster economic growth could be inflationary. More

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    In Nevada, Economy Tops Issues as Unemployment Remains High

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    The state is among a handful that will decide the presidential contest, and workers have felt increased prices at the grocery store and gas station.Sold-out shows along the Strip. Crews constructing a course for a major Formula 1 race. A record number of passengers at Harry Reid International Airport.For much of the past year, Las Vegas, the anchor of Nevada’s economy, has watched in delight as visitors have flocked to town for conventions, football games and summer pool parties, further solidifying its rebound from the doldrums after the pandemic shutdowns.But statewide, the economy is still burdened by high unemployment and higher costs of living — twin pocketbook struggles that animate voters here in one of a handful of states expected to decide the November presidential election.And about a quarter of Nevada voters in a New York Times/Siena College poll last month named the economy as their top issue. It was cited nearly twice as often as any other concern, comparable to findings in other swing states.A topic with particular resonance among Nevada workers — eliminating federal taxation on tips — burst into the national discourse after former President Donald J. Trump told a crowd in Las Vegas that he intended to do away with the practice if elected. He was inspired, Mr. Trump has said, by a conversation with a waitress in the city.His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, later endorsed the idea during a campaign stop in Las Vegas, but paired the proposal with a promise to raise the federal minimum wage.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Japan Tries to Reclaim Its Clout as a Global Tech Leader

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    Japanese chip companies are tapping billions of dollars and collaborating with foreign firms as part of new government policies that look outward.China’s envy-inducing success in using industrial policy to expand its economy and finance green manufacturing has helped kick off a fevered scrimmage among nations to develop and protect their own hometown businesses.It has been 40 years since such competitive anxieties about a rising Asian power prompted this kind of embrace of government intervention among the biggest free-market economies.Only then it was Japan, not China, that was the source of unease.Michael Crichton’s 1992 thriller, “Rising Sun,” with its dark depiction of Japan’s ruthless economic warriors, ruled the best-seller lists, alongside nonfiction titles that warned of the financial and technology juggernaut created by Japan’s powerful government trade ministry.In a 1990 survey, nearly two-thirds of Americans said Japanese investment in the United States posed a threat to American economic independence.It turned out that the anxiety about Japan Inc. peaked just as the country began a long economic slide after the collapse of real estate and stock market bubbles.Now, after a period of stagnation that Japan’s economy ministry refers to as “the lost three decades,” Tokyo is engaged in a multibillion-dollar industrial policy to jump-start the lackluster economy and recapture its position as a tech innovator.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More